The Reds have added first baseman Michael Toglia on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transactions log. The 27-year-old was non-tendered by the Rockies in late November. Toglia split the 2025 season between Triple-A and the majors.
Toglia had the makings of a viable three-true-outcomes bat following the 2024 campaign. He popped 25 home runs in 116 games while walking at a strong 11.8% clip. The power and patience came with a 32.1% strikeout rate, but the end result was a passable 98 wRC+. Toglia’s shaky contact skills cratered to begin this past season. He posted a 39.1% strikeout rate in the first two months of the year, earning a demotion. He bounced up and down between the big-league club and the Isotopes for the rest of the season.
Colorado took Toglia in the first round of the 2019 draft. He flashed big power at every level of the minors, though it came with concerning swing-and-miss tendencies. Toglia debuted with the club in 2022, playing sparingly that season and the next. He totaled six home runs over his first 76 games. The 2024 breakout was closer to what Toglia had shown in the minors, particularly with the free passes. He had a walk rate of at least 12% at every minor league stop before his promotion. It hadn’t reached 8% in his first two MLB stints.
Toglia has shown the ability to do real damage when he makes contact. He ranked in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2024. The contact just hasn’t come consistently enough. Toglia’s had a whiff rate above 33% in all four MLB seasons. He had the fourth-lowest contact rate among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances last year.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Interesting signing. For a homerun guy he .may struggle in Louisville but kill it in Cincy.
Carter really was something. 41 HRs in 2016 and out of the MLB and never to return by mid 2017.
“I’m here for two things; striking out and crushing the ball (when I make contact), and we’re all out of balls.”
Settle down, sounds like you’re getting Rowdy.
There should be at least 2 of them hanging around.
Carter had more home runs from 2013 through 2016 than Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier, and only 2 fewer than Mike Trout. Between those players, there was 4 MVPs, 11 silver sluggers, and 2 home run derby winners, and yet Carter was better at hitting home runs than most of them.
Then he was out of the league less than a year after he hit 41. Crazy career trajectory.
Another 1st round pick that did not pan out. He has potential and I blame part of his struggles on the Rockies player development or lack of it. He has a very good glove as well and I hope the best for him with the Reds.
Swing and a miss. Love Big Mike but he just strikes out too much.
Maybe some folks out there can enlighten me, I feel like its been awhile since we’ve had a “three-true-outcomes” type consistently. Adam Dunn has been retired for awhile. Maybe I’m just not remembering correctly. Kyle Schwarber might be the current guy. I’m sure there has to be more, maybe(ish) Cal Raleigh?
Eugenio Suarez comes to mind. Lots a bombs, led the league in strikeouts, respectable walk rate
What’s the threshold for TTO? If it’s 50% then Schwarber, Ohtani, and Nick Kurtz.
A good question. Though I will also say, the BAbip for Ohtani and Kurtz is far better than Schwarber. But the rates as far as Hard hit%, BB%, Fly ball% and average exit velocity are pretty comparable between the three of them, with each having various slight advantages over the other, though Kurtz is also a rook. In their careers though, Schwarber has proven to be the better at BB% though Ohtani outdid him this past season. as far as TTO goes it may be Schwarber, as Ohtani and Kurtz seemed to have better luck/placement of BAbip. Its difficult to quantify how many hits/hard hits were intentionally directed where they ended up as opposed to just a reactionary barreled hard hit that found a hole.
Wanna know something crazy? Throughout his career about half of Aaron Judge’s plate appearances resulted in a true outcome. 27.4% K + 16.3% BB + 7.4% HR = 50.1% TTO rate.
Cal Raleigh clocks in at a 45.2% TTO rate. Ohtani is at a 44.5% TTO rate. Schwarber is at 48.5% TTO rate, which a hair lower than Judge!
For fun I looked at Juan Soto, because he walks a lot and hits a bunch of homers too, right? Well he’s actually way down on the TTO rate in comparison, at a mere 36.1% because he is so excellent at avoiding strikeouts. On the other end of the extreme, Joey Gallo had a 58.7% TTO rate!
The food abroad is unpredictable, unlike his “hitting” outcomes
In his prime he was able to sock 35-40 moonshot homers which almost made it worth sitting through all those strikeouts. He was equal parts frustrating and fascinating as a hitter because he took TTO ball to such an extreme degree.
What else is crazy is looking at who struck out the most last year, these are some of the best hitters in the game and had he been healthy Mr. Trout would be on this list:
1. Wood • WSN 221
2. Greene • DET 201
3. Schwarber • PHI 197
4. Suárez • 2TM 196
5. Devers • 2TM 192
6. Arozarena • SEA 191
7. McMahon • 2TM 189
8. Raleigh • SEA 188
9. Ohtani • LAD 187
10. De La Cruz • CIN181
As opposed to stateside, where the food is predictably bad.
You want to know something even crazier? Judge’s 8.3% home run percentage over the last 4 seasons is higher than Austin Riley, Josh Naylor, Byron Buxton, Bobby Witt Jr., Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, and Julio Rodriguez’s walk rates over the last 4 seasons.
That is insane 😂
A very similar profile to CES
Or Aristides Aquino
What is it with getting these high strikeout guys? They know why they failed as a prospect with their original org.
Just more dumpster diving guys to throw at the wall.
It’s a low risk depth move. If he goes off like in 2024, reds benefit big time with the power. Reds really don’t have any productive power forward strike out guys.
Valaika to the rescue !
Going to teach the TTO the virtues of “six singles” 😂
I would prefer Baseball go back to hitters with contact skills.Much better game.The huge swing towards swing hard at everything is boring.More movement on the bases is more interesting.Strikeouts are only good when you have to stay out of a rally killing double play.I have not seen a runner move up a base unless there was a wild pitch/passed ball on third strike.Otherwise,a strikeout is a useless at bat.
Maybe, but having a guy or two 3-outcome gut in your lineup still keeps the ‘bloop and a blast’ hope alive
Your middle of the lineup guys are they only ones who should be swinging for the fences, not 1 through 9 like on a lot of teams. If your leadoff or ninth hitter is doing it, that’s a problem. That’s not their job, and they will most likely fail.
TobttR
“Your middle of the lineup guys are they only ones who should be swinging for the fences, ”
Why?
“If your leadoff or ninth hitter is doing it, that’s a problem.”
Ohtani hits leadoff for the Dodgers. They seem to be doing ok
Ohtani wouldn’t be hitting leadoff for most teams, just the deferrals.
TobttR
So, be can only not leadoff the the champions and likely best team in baseball?
Do you not see how that destroys your argument that it’s a “problem” to have a guy swinging for the fences leading off?
You site one example out of 30 teams which is quite frankly an aberration. If Friedl is swinging for the fences in the Natti, it’s a problem, and was for a spell a couple years ago. You can say the same for most of the other teams in baseball outside of maybe Milwaukee where their MVP leads off a lot.
Did Ohtani hit leadoff in Anaheim? He usually hit second citing that new trend when everyone seems to bat what was traditionally their number three hitter second to get them more at bats, they say.
“You site one example out of 30 teams”
No, I didn’t
What?
“Did Ohtani hit leadoff in Anaheim?”
No. And they sucked. So, using the kind of logic you seem to be using, hitting Ohtani first is the difference between sucking and winning the World Series.
“If your leadoff or ninth hitter is doing it, that’s a problem.”
The leadoff hitter for the defending repeat champions is doing it. And it’s not a problem. You’re wrong
TBSNY
“I would prefer Baseball go back to hitters with contact skills”
How would you like that to happen?
If that was that won games, teams would be doing it
It won plenty of games in the past. Youre saying that making contact with the baseball doesn’t win games. You ever watch a guy hit .210 all summer? Is it enjoyable? Its not. The one homer every 5 games doesnt offset the 10 ks it takes to get there.
FN
“making contact with the baseball doesn’t win games. You ever watch a guy hit .210 all summer? Is it enjoyable?”
Do you see the prooblem here?
Back then a low 90’s fastball was considered lighting up the radar gun…
Advanced statistics have ruined baseball. It doesnt matter how many “barrels” a guy hits if he hits .205. They are a good tool to evaluate a players season, not projecting the next. If you disagree Id say look at the game 25 years ago, there was alit more balance. It wasnt good to hit .220 and now it gets you a big contract.
FN
“It wasnt good to hit .220 and now it gets you a big contract.”
Maybe watch a game instead of just looking at ESPN’s stat page. Then you’ll see how incompétente of a stat batting average is.
I was released in the minors because I “only” hit .260. Today I would have been in the majors hitting that.
TobttR
You PLAYED baseball and you don’t understand why batting average is such a useful stat to measure hitting?
You don’t understand that power also matters? As does ability to avoid getting out via things like walks?
Michael Bush and TJ Friedl both hit about .260 this year. Do you think they were equal hitters?
Juan Soto hit .263. You think he’s no different than Friedl?
Not to mention, defense plays a role. And the team’s assessment of your ability to improve.
You think YOU were as good of a hitter as Soto? Really?
Soto hit .263 and everyone thought he had a down year. If you think I thought I was as good a hitter as he was, you entirely missed the point, but that’s nothing new.
Personally I think OPS tells the tale for the middle of the order and OBP everywhere. Soto gets his walks.
I hit triple digit dingers during my minor league career so I did pretty well in that respect. But I’ll be the first to tell you (and have often here) that the slider away was my bugaboo and I was too much of a free swinger especially early on.
TobttR
“I think OPS tells the tale for the middle of the order and OBP everywhere.
So why are you talking about batting average?
And why do you think OPS and OBP are better then, wRC+?
Like it a batter is batting at the bottom of the order and has a low OBP, why do think you should ignore their power? Why should you ignore any player’s power? Because that’s what batting average age OBP do.
“Soto hit .263 and everyone thought he had a down year. ”
Not everyone. His 156 wRC+ was right at his career wRC+. His OBP was his best of the last 3 years. His ISO was above his career average.
“If you think I thought I was as good a hitter as he was, you entirely missed the point, but that’s nothing new.”
You’re attempt at an insult is noted.
State your point if you don’t want me to guess at it.
“Today I would have been in the majors hitting that.”
No you wouldn’t. I don’t know when you played. But today’s hitters are almost certainly better than the hitters when you played.
“the slider away was my bugaboo”
As are the pitchers
Amazing anyone says batting average doesn’t matter when HITTING THE DAGGONE BALL is the point.
You can fall in love with exit velocity and all your different wars with fictional replacements and all that crap, but getting hits and scoring/driving in runs is the point, and a guy barely hitting his weight with a bunch of solo shots don’t cut it.
Interesting Tito told Friedl at the start of last year he needed him on base twice a game and he had a nice year. Would have hit .280 if he didn’t wear down at the end of the year.
But I’m sure you know more than a Hall of Fame manager. After all, everyone else is wrong.
TobttR
“Amazing anyone says batting average doesn’t matter when HITTING THE DAGGONE BALL is the point.”
It’s not the point though.. The point is to score more runs that the other team.
Hitting the ball helps, sure. But so does walking And so does hitting for power. Two things that batting average completely ignores.
What’s amazing is that people who know about baseball think batting average is so important. Why isn’t Luis Arraez the most coveted player in baseball if batting average is so important?
bUt I’m SuRe YoU kNoW mOrE tHaN aLl ThE fRoNt OfFiCeS iN bAsEbAlL.
As for Friedl, did it ever occur to you that walking is a way to get on base? Friedl didn’t get anywhere close to two hits per game. He had fewer than one hit per game (152 games, 151 hits). Friedl got on base 232 times via walk or hit, that’s 1.5 times per game.
You’re proving my point about batting average. It doesn’t capture a player’s hitting ability.
Walks and extra base hits count for something.
False. Think for yourself.
You use power hitters to knock those guys in or do you think the solo homer is how games are won today? Batting average absolutely matters, especially guys who wont hit 30 homers.
FN
You’re the one who’s the slave to the 30 years out of date batting average.
You think for yourself.
“do you think the solo homer is how games are won today? Batting average absolutely matters,”
Again, yes, getting on base is good. I agree 100%
Here’s a couple players from last year. Let’s look at their batting averages
JC: .246
LA: .292
Which one of those guys got on base more?
It was Jake Cronenworth who got on base 36.7% of time
Luis Arraez who only got on base 32.7% of the time should
Batting average doesn’t tell you how much a player gets on base.
Quit using it. Looking at batting average makes you know less about baseball. It’s worse than useless.
If you want to know who get on base. Look at the stat that tells you how often a player got on base. OBP
Hit the ball. Make the defense field it, put pressure on them. Stop looking at stats and watch the game.
FN
“Hit the ball. Make the defense field it, put pressure on them”
2025 balls in play, bip%
Arraez 628, 93.0%
Judge 335, 49.3%
If you think that Arraez, who puts the ball in play nearly twice as often as Judge, is a better hitter than Judge, then I suggest that you neither watch baseball nor look at the stats.
Hitting for power and getting on base are both important. I’m sure that we both agree on that.
Just as you think that selling out for power can be too far in one direction, so can putting the ball in play be too far in the other direction.
Every player has an ideal blend of those two things.
Good move.
I am a believer with Michael Toglia, I am sure he can find a more mature approach at the plate and have success in the majors at some point. Low risk, high reward move there
He’s always been a high strike out, low ba guy, what’s going to change?
e113
Nothing
Just hoping he can get from 35% K’s to 27%
They’ve signed a bunch of minor league deals the past couple of days
That’s all they’re going to get, apparently.
Probably, but with what it’s cost them I like the moves they’ve made including bleday and Meyers
They’ll miss the playoffs and most likely finish behind the Pirates at this rate.
At least the Pirates made some moves to improve their offense
I wasn’t saying they shouldn’t do more just that they haven’t spent or given up to much for the additions they’ve made. I wanted them to sign bleday, I just also wanted him to be on the bench most of the time because a soderstrom/duran was playing
The Cubs get Bregman. We get Toglia. Can you hear the window closing?
The got Bregman but lost Tucker, I’d like to think this doesn’t make them that much better than last year. But the reds sneaking into the playoffs as a wild card doesn’t feel like much of a window sadly.
This crazy nitpicking at the edges of the roster is getting us no where. Let’s offer Bellinger 6 years, $180m, deferring $6mil per year for five years at the end of the contract (essentially paying $25 mil per year for six years) and solve outfield and offensive problems! Even offer opt outs after year 2. This is what we were willing to pay Schwarber and Belli is a better all around player.
It always easy for fans to spend other people’s money. $180 million is over half of the Reds owner’s net worth. He is not Steve Cohen with billions in the bank. He is not a pauper in the real world by any means, but in the world of baseball owners, he kind of is. The Reds absolutely have to live within their revenue means because the owner doesn’t have the deep pockets to take over like some others.
A fan for 50 years in central Kentucky and not Cincinnati so going on only what I read as I know nothing about the Cincinnati business community. From what I have read he is not the only owner and maybe not even the majority owner but the managing owner. I think the majority owner around 35% is still the Linder family or Great American insurance who are billionaires. The Williams might even have a larger ownership stake than the Castellinis. Other owners include a cohen hedge fund guy (not Steve), maybe nipperts, some car dealers of which Wyler might have the most ownership of those, partners in dinsmore law firm also have an ownership share as do a group of P&G executives. That is as of a few years ago last time I checked. Nipperts might have sold out since then.
An argument could be made that only true billionaires have the money to afford major sports teams but that is neither here or there. I see an investment in a sports team similar to an investment in bonds. They don’t or shouldn’t generate income while holding them but once they are sold or mature. The current owner group purchased in 2006 for around $380 million and now 20 years later a value of over $1 billion. If the nipperts did sell their stake within the last 3 years or so they made money.
Also like many billionaires in my area with horse farms or 100,000 acre ranches in the Rockies (think Ted turner) a sports team owner should be a conservator of the asset to keep the value as high as possible for its original purpose. Making a postseason for the first time in 5 seasons and only the 4 time under current ownership then not raising payroll to build off that to increase the value of the brand doesn’t seem like good conservancy.
I actually have a small Saturday ticket package and wouldn’t mind for an increase in ticket price if an increase in payroll to build off 2025. That is how it should work. I understand can’t double payroll and double ticket prices and expect fans to buy tickets but a 10% increase in both would not shock the system. What I think will end up happening though is the 10% increase in ticket prices without the 10% increase in team payroll.
The owner’s personel net worth matters because? You think he pays player out of his pocket? The franchise is worth billions with an S.
A franchise worth matters even less. You cannot pay players with a paper price for selling the team either. The franchise is currently valued at $1.3 billion without an S.
The revenue for the Reds in 2024 was estimated at $325 million. Locking in one player at nearly 10% of your total revenue is ridiculously stupid.
hf
“Locking in one player at nearly 10% of your total revenue is ridiculously stupid.”
Why?
The Reds have spent 130-140 million before. They are 20-30 million below that now, and the two years before hovered around 100 million. They had their best attendance in years last year. They could afford one big bat. They weren’t chasing Schwarber being unable to pay him.
No, they were chasing Schwarber for a similar reason as Pittsburgh. Knowing he would never come to Cincy despite being from the area. But they had to put in the optics of making an attempt or there would have been fan mutiny.
As I mentioned the majority owner as of a few years ago was the lindner family estate/great American insurance company and they are worth billions with an S. The castellinis are the managing partners (different from majority) supposedly worth $400 million which if true about half that would be the value of their part of the reds ownership. Probably some issues with 20 or more different owners/groups of owners with all at different levels of financial means to get all to agree to things.
You mention revenue of $325 million and I have not seen that number before but let’s go with that. Not sure how much of that goes to operating costs such as paying concession vendors, paying for scouting department, marketing, accounting pretty much everything not players salaries. Just on a lark let’s say it’s 60% of revenue although I really have no idea. That would be $130 million left of which every bit should go to players salaries without any of the owners receiving a share of income or dividend. They should get their money in the form when the team sells to another ownership group. A gain by the way of close to $1 billion without an S if the $1.3 billion value is correct. Put another way about a 350% increase over the last 20 years.
As far as spending 10% of payroll on one player I totally disagree. If an 81 win team without that player and an 89 win team with that player then definitely should spend 10% on that player if within that budget. It’s all about who creates the most value and should be WAR based. I am from central Kentucky so not really local so Schwarber being local really wouldn’t make me pay more for tickets or buy a larger ticket package than I already have. Winning however would entice me to fork over more for tickets and I feel like Schwarber was exactly what they needed to win more games and get a better playoff slot than last season.
Not just Schwarber they missed on. As someone said Phillies were going to beat his next best offer no matter. A few weeks after Schwarber signed we missed on signing Ryan Ohearn or trading for Brandon Lowe both to the pirates and either would have provided the left handed power that we lack to have a good team. Neither would have made us better than Schwarber would have but they might have moved us from say 84 wins and maybe squeezing into the playoffs to say 88 wins and maybe a division winner or top wild card playoff spots. That is what increases revenue and value for when the team sells. Neither of those guys would have been 10% of the payroll either.
As it stands now we are hoping of continued improvement of EDLC & Marte, McLain goes back to 2023 form, Stewart is what he was his month of big league time, benson or Bleday learns how to hit left handed pitching or lux all of a sudden finds power to provide left handed thump, steer or Stephenson don’t have down years and perform at least to the back of their baseball cards this far and starting pitching stays healthy for the most part.
If all those things happen then yes we could win the division but at least half are not likely to happen. McLain has been so different from one year to the next it’s impossible to say what he really is. I do think a reasonable chance that Marte and EDLC will continue to improve some and Stewart could be an everyday player. Bottom line is takes 3 years or so to know and EDLC does have the makings of a superstar but he is not there yet and won’t be until he is if he is. Players are what they are until they are something different and expecting everything to work out is a hope not a plan. I would have liked to have seen a plan to improve on last season not a hope to improve.
SL
“As far as spending 10% of payroll on one player I totally disagree. If an 81 win team without that player and an 89 win team with that player then definitely should spend 10% on that player if within that budget. It’s all about who creates the most value and should be WAR based.”
This. Precisely.
As what’s his name from Moneyball said, don’t buy players, buy wins.
Good luck to Toglia. I firmly believe his biggest problem with the Rockies was the lack of facial hair. He just couldn’t grow facial hair and look normal. Just too baby-faced for the mountain man franchise. So maybe going to a team that has a long history of clean shaven guys could work for him.
You’re right the Reds do have a few white guys who can’t grow facial hair (or you never see them with any anyway…). Lodolo, Singer, Steer, McLain…
A decent spring with the Reds could give Toglia the opportunity to latch on somewhere else
Max power, max swing-and-miss. That’s a bet you make when you’re rebuilding.
The Reds have a talented young pitching staff with just a little more time on their rookie deals. Rebuilding is the farthest thing from what they need. They need to have enough guts to at least try to take advantage of the pitching staff while they have them on affordable deals. The Reds have a Nick Krall problem.
I am starting to think the same thing. Krall can’t help the Candelario deal. Seemed ok at the time. Nor can he help whatever budget the owners give him. What I can’t understand with Krall is given such a pittance to work with why waste money. The very first thing they did this offseason was sign a relief pitcher Keegan Thompson and pay him $1.4 million on a one year deal. They then cut him to make room for Bledey who they also signed for $1.4 million. If nobody picks up Thompson then the reds have to pay him the $1.4 million.
I don’t know which one makes us better Thompson or Bleday and likely neither does much for $1.4 million but as it stands say if both worth $1.4 million each and provides say 1 extra win each we have $2.8 million tied up in just one of them unless someone picks up Thompson. We are basically paying for 2 extra wins and getting 1. I know $1.4 million is not much but for a team with only $115 million budget it matters.
I also don’t blame Krall for not getting Schwarber but right after the pirates traded for Brandon Lowe and signed Ryan Ohearn and either would have fit our budget. We need a left handed power bat and only thing I see now that moves the needle as much or more than we need is Tucker or bellinger and we ain’t signing either of those. Maybe Bleday or benson who has good enough power can figure out how to hit left handed pitching but doubtful they will after 3 years in the big leagues.
The Reds are going for quantity, not quality 😂
There was every reason to believe Toglia was the Rockies “first baseman of the future.” Great fielder, great teammate, great power. The Rockies organization argued with him about switch-hitting for 3 yrs. I sincerely hope the Reds can get him on track.