The top of the free agent position player market has not moved as quickly as it did in the previous couple offseasons. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned.
That's not a huge surprise for the latter two hitters given the Boras Corporation's general willingness to wait deeper into the offseason if strong deals don't immediately materialize. Tucker and Bichette, the two best free agents, are respectively represented by Excel Sports Management and Vayner Sports. The slow offseason can't entirely be attributed to Boras. It's possible that Bellinger is waiting on Tucker while Bregman awaits resolution on the Bichette landing spot. There's a decent amount of overlap, especially among a handful of big-market franchises that have been relatively quiet in free agency thus far, in those respective markets.
Bellinger is a free agent for the third time in the past four years. He's hoping to finally command the long-term contract that alluded him in the two prior trips. He was always going to be limited to a one-year pillow deal in 2022 after consecutive down seasons led the Dodgers to non-tender him. A resurgent '23 campaign with the Cubs didn't lead teams to buy into him as a franchise altering addition. He returned to Chicago on a three-year deal with opt-outs, then was traded to the Yankees after an underwhelming 2024 campaign.
The long speculated connection worked beautifully. Bellinger's left-handed bat played very well at Yankee Stadium. He hit 29 home runs, his highest total in six years, while batting .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him around five wins above replacement.
Teams could still quibble with some of his underlying splits. Bellinger was a league average hitter away from the short porch in the Bronx. His batted ball metrics remained middle of the pack, and his results outpaced his "expected" statistics from Statcast for a third straight season. The average batted ball data was a stumbling block for teams in prior offseasons -- both in his '23 free agent trip, and when the Cubs were shopping him last winter.
Will a third straight season of overperformance lead teams to conclude that Bellinger's plus contact skills outweigh the exit velocity concerns? He's one of the best left-on-left hitters in MLB, batting .329/.371/.546 against southpaws over the past three seasons. The average left-handed batter (.230/.299/.365) hits like Marcus Semien or Otto Lopez when he doesn't hold the platoon advantage.
Bellinger isn't attached to draft compensation because he was ineligible for the qualifying offer. His camp will surely look to play up the narrative that he has proven himself in three major markets over the course of his career. A five- or six-year contract seems like the median outcome for the 30-year-old former MVP. Jon Morosi of The MLB Network suggested on Wednesday that his camp may be looking for seven years.
Where might he end up?
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I feel like Bellinger is Yankees or bust. His bat plays very well there, they need him, and his home/road splits were pretty stark last year. I don’t see anyone outbidding the Yanks or the Yankees pursuing anyone else.
Lmao Mets or Dodgers will outbid Yankees easily. He is NOT returning
Anthony, I said it before, it depends on the length. Yankees will offer the most in total dollars and years but the Mets and Dodgers will offer higher AAVs for lesser seasons.
Yankees have made 2 offers so far. One shorter term with a high AAV and one for 5 or 6 years with an unknown AAV. Bellinger didn’t take either.
He’s not going to the Mets. He’s too old, and requires too many years for what the Mets are looking to do in a contract.
Gotta agree
Mets and Dodgers both have access to his road stats. And Dodgers have been there, done that.
Boras wants $30M a year and like 6-7 yrs, a lot of teams are going to skip that even the big spenders.
Yanks only have to worry about the Mets on this one.
He’s going to be a Met.
Jays will sign Tucker causing Bo to fall into the Yanks lap and ending their pursuit of Bellinger.
Could easily be Bo to Boston and Bregman to NY.
I’d be fine with that. Much prefer bo to bregman
I don’t think the Yankees will be Bregmans demands
Somehow I don’t think so. I think the Mets are pushing for Tucker and will only pivot to Bellinger if Tucker signs elsewhere.
The free agent market has been slow during the past several offseasons. This is nothing new. All these big name free agents still being out there shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
Usually the top guys are signed by now and there are one or two “bigger names” that linger until the week or two before spring training. This year, you have probably 6 of the top ten free agents, including Tucker, Bichette, Bellinger, Bregman and Valdez and Suarez, still unsigned and it’s Jan 8th. I think another thing thats making it seem slow (which it has been, idc what anyone says), are all these rumors about the trade of guys like Skubal and Marte. Those rumors made us thing something might be imminent however, it was just what this sight is about…RUMORS
Maybe it’s just my memory. Just seems like for the past several years the biggest names are still out there at the end of January and February into the beginning of March. Seemed like it’s been going on for years but maybe not.
As a Cubs fan… it’s the Yankees. That short porch in RF is perfect for his swing. His positional versatility is more valuable to the Yanks. In Chicago, he’s essentially a RF. PCA and/or Bush aren’t sitting.
I don’t buy the return to Chicago smoke.
The home stats and the suitability of YS is irrelevant to a Boras client. Right now, Boras is getting the Yankees to bid against themselves, since there’s no other team willing to go 5+ years. Cody will likely sign a 2yr deal with an opt out for a higher AAV. Under those conditions, I definitely see the Cubs in the mix.
Bright side, I disagree. Suppose he signs with the Mets but has a lesser year mostly due to Citi Field. He’s now a year older and a prime season of his career is gone. Teams including the Yankees will pay more next season? I doubt he can do better even including a short term deal first. This is Belli’s time. At the end of the day, he takes the Yankees’ best offer as it will be for the extra year or two.
Bright side, I can understand your logic re Belli. And I’m a fan of him and believe he’s definitely an asset to any organization.
But based on his age, and his stats away from New York – I’d agree that there is no way Belli will get anything longer than a two year contract from any club. Possibly it could include an option for the ballclub. But 5+ years is a complete fantasy.
If the Jays don’t get Tucker they might want Belli or Bregman or Bo, but , Tucker wants to go to LA so in our game of musical chairs the music is still playing right now until someone blinks. It’s all about the Dodgers every year.
Can’t see the Yankees going for 7/245
He’d be a perfect fit with the Angels… at the right price.
The Angels would have to massively overpay Belli.
That’s why I said at the right price. He wouldn’t be worth it if they overpaid him (AAV above $30M).
7/190 and then put him in RF? Would that force Adell the inept back into CF?
Bellinger turns 31 this season, a 7 year contract is exactly what I would avoid. These deals never pan out for the Angels. I’d feel comfortable at 3/$85M and absolute max at 5/$125M.
Give belly a few years when hes an over the hill and ineffective LH OF and Falvey will be all in.
Hissy is better than epileptic, if you are not worried about your reputation but with the latter, you can always claim some sort of affinity to Caesar or Alexander… if there is a shoe….
Tigers keep coming up as “unlikely”.
I choose the former.
When he says, “That hasn’t been the usual operating procedure for the Scott Harris front office”, is he referring Chris Illich’s battle with chrometophobia?
Poor Rockies fans…for every one of these articles, it’s basically just “No.” for them.
Bichette should have accepted the Q.O from the Blue Jays and waited until next year. Tucker won’t sign with the Jays & Belly will be back with the Yanks.
I think Bo will sign a long term with opt outs so he is covered both ways. Take what you can get. I don’t think Tucker will sign with the Jays either I’m thinking its Dodgers only for him. I think the Jays value Bo more than other teams do but they want him(and his agents) to see what the market values him at.
We were hearing rumours of Bo wanting over $300 MIl at one point. Uh no! Not happening.
Not sure where you have been reading baseball rumors, but you need to stop. Most Bellinger has been rumored to be asking for this offseason is about $200 million over 7 years.
I said Bo not Belli.
“Eluded” him, not “alluded” him. I don’t expect the peanut gallery to know the difference, but don’t you have an editor Anthony”
Would his editor end his sentence with a quotation mark instead of a period, though?
I don’t have an editor, just dumb thumbs that hit post too fast! 😂
Please no bandbox Bellinger. This guy will be Jason Bay 2.0. He’s perfect in Yankee stadium, leave him there.
I think that the Mets have moved in right field (and left center) a couple of times since they built Citi, but it’s definitely not the Yankee Stadium short porch. The Mets need short-term solutions in the OF and 1B until the kids are ready in ‘27, and that’s not Bellinger unless he takes a 2-3 yr deal with a high AAV with opt outs after each year.
Mets or Yankees.
Matos is not the top option in RF for the Giants. It’s Gilbert/Encarnacion as a platoon.
Yup. Coach loves him some Gilbert.
Pretty sure he will platoon with one of them two.
He would have to be nuts to leave the Yankees for that clown show in Queens.
The team that will pay him the most money. Open your wallets boys.
The best ballpark fit would be Citizens Bank Park. 2nd best among teams with the money to sign him would be Dodger Stadium followed closely by Yankee Stadium. Camden Yards is a better fit than both of those, but I don’t think the Orioles are in the market for an OF or a 1B. Angel Stadium is 8th on that list, but I don’t think Arte wil pony up the money.
So Phillies who need an OF, Yankees who need him back, and Dodgers who need an OF.
That was simple. I think under 100 words.
Same teams and ballparks are a fit for Tucker.
Come brother to the white sox?
He would be fun to see as a Red, but obviously not going to happen.
Why not? That doesn’t seem obvious at all, actually. The Reds are an MLB team, Bellinger is an MLB free agent… Therefore it is possible.
I don’t see any good fit. Too expensive and not enough good years left for him. He can go play in Korea.
With free agents apparent reluctance to sign in New York I’m starting to wonder if promises to tax the heck out of the rich and control real estate transactions by the new mayor may be encouraging them to sign elsewhere.
We can only hope.
I wonder why players are willing to go to Canada?
Hmm.
Yankees for sure. No way he takes another short deal for the Cubs. He is done proving himself and wants a long term deal. Someone will give it to him, and the Yankees will pay up.
There are no fits for Bellinger if he actually thinks he is a $30+ AAV player. That level of overpay is insanity.
I’m locked out of reading it all, because of the paywall, but I hope the Giants aren’t listed. The Giants should get Tucker or Bader, not Bellinger.