In the aftermath of the Alex Bregman signing, one of the immediate questions was whether it changed how the Cubs would proceed with Nico Hoerner. Bregman pushed second-year infielder Matt Shaw into a utility role, but he'd be capable of stepping in at second base. The Giants, Red Sox and Mariners were among the teams seeking a trade match for a player of Hoerner's profile. Would the Cubs flip him before his walk year?
That's almost certainly not happening now. There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility unless they were blown away by the kind of prospect that other teams would not entertain for a rental (e.g. Connelly Early, Bryce Eldridge). Hoerner is a much better player than Shaw in the short term, and the Cubs have as strong a chance as anyone to take the NL Central. Boston traded for Caleb Durbin, while the Giants signed Luis Arraez to play second. Seattle acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals.
As Spring Training gets underway, the focus might now swing to an extension. March is the most common time of year for those conversations. If the Cubs are able to get a long-term deal done with Hoerner this spring, that could make them more comfortable dangling Shaw in deadline talks if any top-of-the-rotation starters come available. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote this week that Hoerner has emerged as a pillar in the clubhouse. The relationship between team and player is strong enough that it'd be a surprise if they didn't have some conversations before Opening Day about what it'd take to keep him off the market.
Let's try to narrow down what that might cost:
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“There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility . . .”
If Cubs had traded him now, it would allow the other team to recoup a Comp Pick if he signs elsewhere. Cubs lose that value once the season starts, since acquiring team would get that extra value anymore.
Its not a big reason, but its not ‘no reason’ either.
If they trade Nico Hoerner at all it makes the Bregman signing pointless.
“makes the Bregman sigining pointless”
Are they disbanding the team at the end of the 2026 season? Thats the only way what you say makes sense.
I highly doubt the Cubs will offer Nico a QO after this year. Because he might take it. It’s just a hunch but they already have his replacement so I don’t think they’ll want to pay him twice what he’s making now. You have Suzuki and Happ hitting FA too.. The Cubs need to decide what to do with them. Do they let them walk? Do they extend them? Since they traded away Caissie they really don’t have anybody who can just step in. They’ve got a bunch of FA starters too. How do they spread the money around? Since Shaw would be way cheap it leaves a lot of other money to get spread around. I just don’t see it happening.
No but it makes them a worst team if he’s not it. Keeping Shaw after this year and hopefully they extend Nico but you can probably put Shaw in LF and let Happ walk.
I agree. Signing Bregman sort of balances out the loss of Tucker. Trading Nico would make no sense. They’d still have a hole even after adding Bregman.
“I don’t think they’ll want to pay him twice what he’s making now.”
I believe the Cubs will offer a QO. Its not about what he is making now. Its about what he would be worth at the end of the season. And he will be worth more than $23.5M/1Yr deal, provided he’s healthy.
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“You have Suzuki and Happ hitting FA too”
“They’ve all got a bunch of FA starters too”
Hoerner 6.2 BWar, 28yo
Happ 4.0, 30yo
Suzuki 2.6, 30yo
Taillon 1.3, 33yo
Imanaga 1.2, 31yo
A lot will have to do with how they do in 2026, but as of right now, Hoerner gets the QO and maybe Happ. The rest: No.
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This is why I would trade Hoerner now and get an OF or SP with years of control, to lessen the losses. Otherwise, the Bregman $175M signing was strictly to get him for 2026.
You’ve seen him play LF then? Because I haven’t. Sorry but I’d rather re sign the GG LF put Shaw at 2nd, And take the difference between Shaw and Nico and sign a P.. That money can be used better places. Don’t forget that in 2027 right now the only P’s you have signed are Horton, Cabrera, Rea and that’s it. Maybe Wiggins steps up but I gotta see it first. Plus you have Harvey, Milner, Webb also out the door. You’ve got a lot of problems there Shota, Boyd, Taillon, and Steele can all walk. I think Steele is out of arbitration too. Ricketts set it up so that everybody was mostly paid through 26 and the CBA length. It could come back to bite him.
rondon: “still have a hole”
What hole? Shaw, Bregman and Nico for 2 positions. Trading one would help the team in the long run. Keeping all three, is a unnecessary redundancy. Trading (Shaw) the only cheap one would make no sense.
On the other hand, trading Nico for a young, cheap SP with years of control would lessen the 2027 mass exodus.
Hey if the CBA comes in and the first Tax line rises like 20 million plus then fine. You’re set for this year. But you’re talking about spending for 3 starters right now plus bullpen guys and that isn’t going to be cheap. If the Cubs are going to be a Tax team( And I’m cool with that), then things are gonna get costly fast. If you’re counting on Wicks, Assad, and Brown all stepping up then I say that’s a long shot at best even though I like them too. I will say if the Cubs want to stay a Tax team they should have moved away from Hoyer and found somebody who knows how to do it.
Hoerner is coming off a 3 year stretch where he averaged better than 5 WAR with a 6.2 WAR in 2025. He is at a Tucker level of performance, better than Bregman. He wont accept a QO. He will get offers in the Matt Chapman area in free agency or higher. Possibly much higher because of his age.
The Cubs don’t believe in Shaw or they would not have signed Bregman to a long-term deal to play his primary position.
You can’t reasonably put Shaw at the same level as Hoerner. Shaw hasn’t even proven he can hit consistently at the ML level. There would absolutely be a hole.
Assad has already stepped up. He just needs to play more.
He is NOT Tucker despite the WAR. If he has a good season, I agree no way he will take the QA though.
Sean, that is what his play on the field says he is as a player. Defense counts and Hoerner is exceptional at that part of the game.
Yeah I definitely think trading Nico is a huge mistake. Hearing he could be Mariners or Giants bound as a free agent. The Cubs would be wise to lock him up with a 4 year extension now. If that’s possible.
He won’t take 4. I thibk minimum 5. Probably 6
Its the same as no reason because its far from enough to cause the Cubs to trade him.
The way I look at this is if you are Nico’s agent you ask for more and if the Cubs don’t bite, you move on and go to free agency. But that would be leaving emotions out of the equation and who knows if Hoerner has told his agent to take less to stay with the only team he’s known.
Meanwhile, if you’re the Cubs you offer 5 years, 100M and if they decline you simply slide Shaw into 2nd after the season.
Given both of those rather hard-line positions, and a lockout looming, I think it’s unlikely a deal comes together.
Nico Hoerner will want a Willy Adames deal.
Cubs will get a compensation pick if they lose him.
Six years and $140 million would get it done.
Is he better than Marte? I don’t think anyone is paying Hoerner an AAV of $23.2m over six years. Marte may have a team friendly deal but I’m thinking the five for $100m Remember mentioned is the max. I’m not even sure he gets that given his lack of power.
The floor is likely another Giant, Matt Chapman.
I’m thinking if they offered 5 years and $110-120 mill right now, they could get it done.
Overpay
simon, Put down the crack pipe.
It really is sad that MLB clubs don’t value players like Hoerner as much as in the past. There is absolutely nothing wrong with guys like him. Reminds me a lot of Billy Mueller.
These guys are your number 2 or number 8 hitters. They are the source of your RBIs for power hitters, extend innings, and give pitchers migraines.
Silly to devalue them. Each team should have 2 or 3 just like him.
Hoerner had a 6.2 WAR last season. Teams value that level of performance. Some fans don’t seem to, but fans are by and large clueless.
Regardless of whether you prefer bWAR or fWAR there is one player that was primarily a 2B that was better than Horner the past 3 season and none last season.
In all of MLB there were 14 players that have been better in bWAR and 21 in fWAR over the past 3 seasons. No matter how you slice it, he is an elite player. Most teams do not have 1 player of that caliber, let alone 2.
An extension probably doesn’t happen, but Hoyer should definitely be talking about it with Nico’s agent just so he has an idea of what Nico is looking for. Hopefully he re-signs in the offseason.
Nico’s value margin is razor thin. Does he keep showing the slight amount of power he has or does his offense drop as he turns 30 when a new contract would begin. He could become a 3 WAR Xavier Edwards level 2B if he loses any of his minor slugging that he’s shown vs the 4-5 WAR guy he was.
Hoerner has averaged 7.7 HR per season the last 3 seasons while averaging 5.1 WAR. They contribute very little to his WAR if anything at all. At that level it may actually detract. He had a 6.2 WAR with just 7 HRs in 2025. His value is huge.
Power isn’t only home runs. You know how slugging is calculated yet still made this response. Nico’s higher offensive value compared to someone with similar defensive value like Edwards was that minimal increase in power he showed last year. Otherwise they aren’t that different of players.
sports-reference.com/stathead/baseball/versus-find…
Hoerner had more HR and a higher SLG and a lower value with the bat in 2022 than in 2025.
Edwards had a 20% lower offensive value than Hoerner. That much of a difference is not because of 4 HR.
Edwards started 41 games at SS of 137 overall so hard to compare their defensive value at 2B for last season alone. Over his 3 seasons Edwards has 121 games/111 starts at 2B and a 12 DRS. Last season Hoerner had 153 games at 2B and a 17 DRS. That is a significant difference in defensive value, about 30%. Over those 111 starts, at 2B Edwards has a 3.0 WAR. Last season Hoerner had a 6.2 WAR with only 3 starts not at 2B.
Hoerner is a better all around player by a significant margin and its not because of a 4 HR/13 XBH difference.
You are trying to compare seasons with significantly less PAs and different rate stats like OBP. Nico is offensively better then Edwards, that’s obvious, but like all defensive-contact players the difference between him being an all-star vs regular starter is pretty thin. That’s the point and why it’ll be difficult for him to get something long term at a high AV. Now if a team is convinced he can play above average SS then that changes things.
When the SBs dry up so does some of his value.
Nico is one of those undervalued gems. I’m not a Cubs fan, but I love watching him play. Great glove, high baseball IQ, consistently high contact/low K rates. This is the kind of player the Blue Jays built their team around.
Definitely undervalued by fans. Teams likely value him highly, but his profile (speed, defense and contact) tend to experience more extreme age related regression.
I’m also skeptical of his ability to return to SS given his arm strength has graded out very poorly the last 3 years.
He is a much better player than HSK and Gleybar Torres, so will definitely get a sizeable deal. However, he will likely be the 3rd best infielder on the market behind Bichette and Chisholm.
I could also see teams look at HSK, Torres and Crawford as preferred alternatives (all likely looking at 3 year or shorter deals) to giving Hoerner a long term deal. It wouldn’t surprise me if Hoerner did get something approaching Bichette big short term deal though.
Can, you would take Chisholm over Hoerner? Upside I see with the best but in my view Hoerner’s glove makes him the more valuable player.
I think Chisholm’s skill set ages better. He has more power, bat speed and arm strength. He also takes a lot more walks.
I do think they will be roughly equal for the next 2-3 years though.
Chisholm averaged 2.6 WAR with a 4.2 WAR peak the last 3 seasons.
Hoerner averaged 5.1 WAR with a 6.2 WAR peak over the last 3 seasons.
Hoerner is not just a little better, he is almost twice as valuable.
That must be bWAR loving Hoerner’s glove. fWAR they’ve both been in the 4-5 WAR range the past two years.
Jazz is almost nearly a full year younger which makes a difference in FA and teams tend to value offensive over defense.
Hoerner’s 4.4 fWAR average and 4.8 f WAR peak is still much better than Chisholm’s 3.3 fWAR average and 4.4 fWAR peak.
Nico will get 5yrs, somewhere between $130m – $150m guaranteed
Don’t see it Roadtrip. A lot though could change with the next CBA.
With a signing bonus and deferrals I think that’s where the guaranteed amount lands.
I love Nico but he isn’t a 25-30MM a year player. The biggest obstacle Cubs will face on determining his value is his team will send him to the FA market as someone who can play 2nd or SS. If he wants to be a Cub I thought 5/100MM was fair. Anything above that might make sense to take comp pick and slide Shaw over there next year.
5yrs (2027-2031) for $140m guaranteed. $10m signing bonus (deferred $2m per year 2032-2036), $26m per year with $6m per year deferred (2037-2041).
Hoerner has averaged 5.1 WAR with a 6.2 WAR peak over the last 3 seasons. With a point of WAR on the free agent market valued at over $10 million this off season so far, that level of production is easily worth $30 million.
If the Cubs believed that Shaw’s 2025 was not a mirage they would not have signed Bregman long term.
At a minimum.
Put down the bong
Nico yes, Happ no
Nico and Seiya should be a priority to extend.
Happ can definitely walk after this season. He’s either a slightly above or league average bat. Sure he’s a great LF but honestly you can hide a bad defender in LF if it means getting more production.
Happ has averaged 119 OPS+/118 wRC+ the last 3 season and was at 120 OPS+/118 wRC+ in 2025. He is an 18-20% above average hitter. He is also a very good defender in the OF. Among players that have been primarily LF, he is a top 10 hitter by both OPS+ and wRC+ and top 5-6 WAR over the past 3 seasons by both bWAR and fWAR .
He can walk in FA, but only because if he repeats his 2025 performance the amount he will command in FA is going to be around $28-30 million AAV. The QO will give the Cubs a small amount of compensation when he turns it down.
I appreciate your stats and certainly don’t refute them, Happ is prone to long streaks of cold and hot. The cold streaks are what sticks out the most in my mind, and when he’s hot the rest of the team, to me at least, is also on a hot streak. Just my thoughts on him after watching for what will be 10 seasons now.
Streaks don’t matter much unless they are more than a season. Seasons do matter. Happ’s seasons are extremely good and filled with more hot streaks than cold streaks.
Happ’s 4 hot streaks of a month plus each last season far outweighed his cold streaks of 18 games in May and 22 games in July.
Shaw had a hot streak and the Cubs still signed someone that had seasons of great play at Shaw’s best position. Just goes to show that what a player does over a long stretch is more important.
Happ is not worth 20m a season and never was
It will then come as a real surprise to you when Happ signs a deal of closer to $30 million AAV in free agency.
We can see why you are on here and not off gambling. Your losses must be huge.
Good thing you aren’t handing out contracts or maybe you are running the Angels eh Artie?
I really don’t see an extension on the table at all at this point.
Of the two, Matt Shaw is way more valuable on the trade market than Nico as it stands today. If you extend Nico, you immediately depress Shaw’s value (return) as he is blocked at all three infield positions and I doubt he magically turns into an outfielder overnight.
Cubs have basically the entire season to determine if Shaw continues to prove he is the stand in at second base beyond 2026. Shaw is undoubtedly better at all facets of the game than Berti and Brujan and Turner were last year and provides the ability to give all of Hoerner, Swanson and Bregman almost a day off per week….while giving some hope to having a viable bench—something sorely lacking the past few seasons.
I think Nico’s future is way, way more tied to how the Cubs feel about Shaw.
Shaw’s value, or lack thereof, was revealed by the long-term signing of Bregman.
Get what he can as he lives in California so he will be taxed like a rich guy. So his money is really our money
Why do so many fans not understand that players are taxed where each game is played and not in the state where they live in the offseason?
Just from the outside, I think if they don’t extend Nico, they are crazy.
My prediction is 5x$20mm=$100mm
Give him a blank check and just ask him to write a number down. Rumors are that he wants 5/90. Which is a no brainer. Give him that and the. Add an extra year for 6/115.5M that’s 19.25mil aav. Then the Cubs need to extend or consider extending Seiya Suzuki.
Its going to be above Adames and possibly above Chapman.
He’s earned the right to get a bigger contract than both of those two. Adames got massively overpaid. By like 109 mil.
Adames was at 7/182, a $26 million AAV coming off a 3 season average of 3.4 WAR. He produced a 3.7 WAR in 2025.
Chapman’s extension in early September 2024 was at 6/151. He averaged 5.1 WAR in 2022-2024.
Hoerner has averaged 5.1 WAR the last 3 seasons with a 6.2 WAR last season,
Nico is absolutely my favorite cub and worthy of an extension, id say 5/125 or 130. Hes a 6-7 WAR player. Im not sold on Shaw, but remember Happ and Suzuki (i believe) are FA after this season. That means Shaw can slide over to a corner outfield spot, if his bat plays there. Alcantara we can wait and see on, or maybe the OF is Shaw, PCA, and Alcantra. Not a bad defensive combo. Of course, PCA is thr OF version of Javy Baez and id love to see him traded.
Nico had one of the oddest stats last season.
All year he was at or very near (top three) in hitting with runners in scoring position. He ended up hitting .371 in RISP situations.
Here’s the oddity—he had 56 hits with runners in scoring positions, but only had 51 RBI in those spots.
In comparison Dansby Swanson had exactly 51 RBI (same as Nico) in RISP spots—but hit only .204 and only had 31 hits to get to that mark.
Nico profiles as a very average offensive player despite comparatively high BA and higher than normal OBP.
His value is probably 75% on the defensive side of the field and there are probably less than three teams that value defense as much as the Cubs front office.
6/192
Including $10 million per year in deferrals.
With the deferrals you mentioned, that is possible. Only one player who has been primarily a 2B has been better than Hoerner over the past 3 seasons and no one was better last season. That is according to both bWAR and fWAR.
Cardinals fan?
No. Are you?
Here’s what I don’t get: Cub fans say Hoerner is so valuable, yet not many fans want him resigned and don’t expect the Cubs will. The team is not saying they are going to extend him, nor do they seem to be trying to. But the team says he’s too valuable to trade. I don’t get the disconnect. He wasn’t in the Top 100 Right Now players on MLB Network. Is he really that good? Worth signing for over $100M? If he was really that valuable, why aren’t the Cubs trying to extend him?
The facts are the facts. Ricketts wants to be a Tax team. He doesn’t want to pay the Tax ever. It’s not that the fans don’t want him around. We do. If the Cubs were the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees this would be done already. But if you want to keep under the Tax you have to make decisions. Right now the strength of the Cubs Farm System is IF’s. You have Shaw, Rojas, Ramirez are all cost controlled for years. Fact is Nico is about to get expensive as he should. Weird thing is to play that way you need a POBO who knows how to do that. Hoyer does not. Hoyer will spend every dollar he gets right up to the tax number and never allows for injuries or such things. He trades all their good prospects for expensive vets when he should keep them. It’s kind of mind boggling. You have the Brewers who keep and play their guys and the Cubs who do not. Let’s see who wins but it’s usually the Brewers.
I am going to go with that in free agency Hoerner will make more AAV than Willy Adames and less AAV than Bichette but with $40-60 million more guaranteed money over 5-6 years. If the Cubs want to keep him offering a 6/160 extension might get it done if they act quickly. Another 6.2 bWAR / 4.8 fWAR season will earn him more than that.
Only one player who has been primarily a 2B has been better than Hoerner over the past 3 seasons and no one was better last season. That is according to both bWAR and fWAR.