In the aftermath of the Alex Bregman signing, one of the immediate questions was whether it changed how the Cubs would proceed with Nico Hoerner. Bregman pushed second-year infielder Matt Shaw into a utility role, but he'd be capable of stepping in at second base. The Giants, Red Sox and Mariners were among the teams seeking a trade match for a player of Hoerner's profile. Would the Cubs flip him before his walk year?
That's almost certainly not happening now. There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility unless they were blown away by the kind of prospect that other teams would not entertain for a rental (e.g. Connelly Early, Bryce Eldridge). Hoerner is a much better player than Shaw in the short term, and the Cubs have as strong a chance as anyone to take the NL Central. Boston traded for Caleb Durbin, while the Giants signed Luis Arraez to play second. Seattle acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals.
As Spring Training gets underway, the focus might now swing to an extension. March is the most common time of year for those conversations. If the Cubs are able to get a long-term deal done with Hoerner this spring, that could make them more comfortable dangling Shaw in deadline talks if any top-of-the-rotation starters come available. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote this week that Hoerner has emerged as a pillar in the clubhouse. The relationship between team and player is strong enough that it'd be a surprise if they didn't have some conversations before Opening Day about what it'd take to keep him off the market.
Let's try to narrow down what that might cost:
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“There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility . . .”
If Cubs had traded him now, it would allow the other team to recoup a Comp Pick if he signs elsewhere. Cubs lose that value once the season starts, since acquiring team would get that extra value anymore.
Its not a big reason, but its not ‘no reason’ either.
The way I look at this is if you are Nico’s agent you ask for more and if the Cubs don’t bite, you move on and go to free agency. But that would be leaving emotions out of the equation and who knows if Hoerner has told his agent to take less to stay with the only team he’s known.
Meanwhile, if you’re the Cubs you offer 5 years, 100M and if they decline you simply slide Shaw into 2nd after the season.
Given both of those rather hard-line positions, and a lockout looming, I think it’s unlikely a deal comes together.
Nico Hoerner will want a Willy Adames deal.
Cubs will get a compensation pick if they lose him.
Six years and $140 million would get it done.
Is he better than Marte? I don’t think anyone is paying Hoerner an AAV of $23.2m over six years. Marte may have a team friendly deal but I’m thinking the five for $100m Remember mentioned is the max. I’m not even sure he gets that given his lack of power.
It really is sad that MLB clubs don’t value players like Hoerner as much as in the past. There is absolutely nothing wrong with guys like him. Reminds me a lot of Billy Mueller.
These guys are your number 2 or number 8 hitters. They are the source of your RBIs for power hitters, extend innings, and give pitchers migraines.
Silly to devalue them. Each team should have 2 or 3 just like him.
An extension probably doesn’t happen, but Hoyer should definitely be talking about it with Nico’s agent just so he has an idea of what Nico is looking for. Hopefully he re-signs in the offseason.
Nico’s value margin is razor thin. Does he keep showing the slight amount of power he has or does his offense drop as he turns 30 when a new contract would begin. He could become a 3 WAR Xavier Edwards level 2B if he loses any of his minor slugging that he’s shown vs the 4-5 WAR guy he was.
When the SBs dry up so does some of his value.
Nico is one of those undervalued gems. I’m not a Cubs fan, but I love watching him play. Great glove, high baseball IQ, consistently high contact/low K rates. This is the kind of player the Blue Jays built their team around.
Nico will get 5yrs, somewhere between $130m – $150m guaranteed
Don’t see it Roadtrip. A lot though could change with the next CBA.
I love Nico but he isn’t a 25-30MM a year player. The biggest obstacle Cubs will face on determining his value is his team will send him to the FA market as someone who can play 2nd or SS. If he wants to be a Cub I thought 5/100MM was fair. Anything above that might make sense to take comp pick and slide Shaw over there next year.
Nico yes, Happ no
I really don’t see an extension on the table at all at this point.
Of the two, Matt Shaw is way more valuable on the trade market than Nico as it stands today. If you extend Nico, you immediately depress Shaw’s value (return) as he is blocked at all three infield positions and I doubt he magically turns into an outfielder overnight.
Cubs have basically the entire season to determine if Shaw continues to prove he is the stand in at second base beyond 2026. Shaw is undoubtedly better at all facets of the game than Berti and Brujan and Turner were last year and provides the ability to give all of Hoerner, Swanson and Bregman almost a day off per week….while giving some hope to having a viable bench—something sorely lacking the past few seasons.
I think Nico’s future is way, way more tied to how the Cubs feel about Shaw.