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Ballparking A Nico Hoerner Extension

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In the aftermath of the Alex Bregman signing, one of the immediate questions was whether it changed how the Cubs would proceed with Nico Hoerner. Bregman pushed second-year infielder Matt Shaw into a utility role, but he'd be capable of stepping in at second base. The Giants, Red Sox and Mariners were among the teams seeking a trade match for a player of Hoerner's profile. Would the Cubs flip him before his walk year?

That's almost certainly not happening now. There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility unless they were blown away by the kind of prospect that other teams would not entertain for a rental (e.g. Connelly Early, Bryce Eldridge). Hoerner is a much better player than Shaw in the short term, and the Cubs have as strong a chance as anyone to take the NL Central. Boston traded for Caleb Durbin, while the Giants signed Luis Arraez to play second. Seattle acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals.

As Spring Training gets underway, the focus might now swing to an extension. March is the most common time of year for those conversations. If the Cubs are able to get a long-term deal done with Hoerner this spring, that could make them more comfortable dangling Shaw in deadline talks if any top-of-the-rotation starters come available. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote this week that Hoerner has emerged as a pillar in the clubhouse. The relationship between team and player is strong enough that it'd be a surprise if they didn't have some conversations before Opening Day about what it'd take to keep him off the market.

Let's try to narrow down what that might cost:

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Red Sox “Checked In” On Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw

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Alex Bregman’s decision to sign with the Cubs left the Red Sox with some uncertainty within their infield picture, as both second base and Bregman’s old third base position remain unsettled heading into Spring Training.  Top prospect Marcelo Mayer seems to be penciled into one of the two spots, with Mayer likely playing third while the collection of Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard, and/or Kristian Campbell will handle the playing time at the keystone.

A new acquisition could certainly change this picture, and such free agents and trade targets as Isaac Paredes, Brendan Donovan, and Eugenio Suarez remain available.  Plenty of other players remain on Boston’s radar, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the Red Sox “are among the many teams that have checked in about” Cubs infielders Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw.

There would be some irony if a trade came together between Bregman’s new and former teams, though there is no sense that a deal is anywhere close between Boston and Chicago.  Trade speculation swirled around Hoerner and Shaw even before Bregman arrived in Wrigleyville, with the Yankees, Giants, and Mariners all reportedly showing interest in Hoerner.  While the Cubs may be at least open to hearing offers for Hoerner out of due diligence, however, there isn’t much indication that the team has any real interest in moving the two-time Gold Glover.

The Bregman signing solidified Chicago’s starting infield alignment as Bregman at third, Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at shortstop, and Michael Busch at first base.  Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki line up as the starting outfield trio, and the open DH spot could be a revolving door for several players to get partial rest days.  This in turn would open up playing time for Shaw or another top prospects in Moises Ballesteros and Kevin Alcantara, and give these youngsters some semi-regular at-bats in the majors without the pressure of a true everyday role on a contending team.

Trading Hoerner or Shaw would immediately alter the Cubs’ plans for the coming season at least, and moving Shaw would have a longer-term impact since he only just made his MLB debut in 2025.  Hoerner is a free agent next winter, and with Bregman now locked into the hot corner, the thought has been that Shaw could take over from Hoerner as second base.  (The Cubs are also considering Shaw as an outfield option to expand his versatility.)

Even with Hoerner nearing the open market, it would take a lot for the Cubs to part ways with a proven veteran who is probably the best defensive second baseman in baseball, not to mention an above-average hitter (106 wRC+) over the last five seasons.  It would take even more for Chicago to deal a top prospect like Shaw who comes with so much team control, yet Boston’s pitching depth could at least get the Cubs to take notice.  Since Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd will also be free agents next season, bringing aboard a Payton Tolle or a Connelly Early would be an intriguing way for the Cubs to bolster their rotation over the longer term.  It is safe to say that Tolle or Early would only be on the table (if at all) for Shaw, as the Sox aren’t likely to move either of those arms for one year of Hoerner.

While Shaw has the prospect pedigree to interest any team, it would be quite a pivot if the Red Sox traded from their high-level pitching depth to acquire a young infielder, given how Boston (in theory) already has plenty of position-player building blocks in place.  If Mayer is able to stay healthy and break out as a big leaguer, that provides a ton of stability at either third base, second base, or at shortstop if Mayer is ultimately the heir apparent to Trevor Story.  In this sense, bringing in Hoerner as a somewhat overqualified stopgap for the 2026 season might be a better fit to give the Sox more time to see what they have in Meyer or Campbell.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been very active on the trade front since taking over Boston’s front office in October 2023, though the Garrett Cooper-for-cash considerations deal in April 2024 remains the only deal swung between Breslow and his former team.  For the 2019-23 seasons, Breslow worked in the Cubs front office, and he was promoted to an assistant GM role during the 2020-21 offseason after Jed Hoyer was promoted to president of Chicago’s baseball operations.

Latest On Red Sox’ Infield Pursuits

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The Red Sox pivoted quickly after losing out on third baseman Alex Bregman, bringing lefty Ranger Suárez in to join an already deep rotation. They’re still in the market for help on the infield, and comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow at Suárez’s introductory press conference perhaps shed some light on the potential moves they could yet have in store (links (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Rob Bradford of WEEI and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic).

“I don’t think there’s a question anymore that the identity of our team and the strength of our team is going to be our pitching and our ability to prevent runs,” Breslow said .

Breslow, unsurprisingly, wouldn’t comment directly on whether any subsequent additions are on the horizon. The third-year baseball ops leader acknowledged (via Bradford) that “teams call about some of our depth” but added that it’s “hard to tell” whether anything will come together in the near future, just given the sudden nature with which offseason negotiations can either accelerate or crumble at any given point.

Regarding the team’s in-house options, McCaffrey reports that the organization prefers Marcelo Mayer at third base rather than at second base. That’s not necessarily set in stone, and the Sox would presumably be open to Mayer at second base if an unexpected opportunity arose at the hot corner, but it’s nevertheless notable that that’s where they’d lean, all else being equal. Breslow emphasized that the Red Sox “will be very mindful of the defensive skill set” of any addition to the infield. McCaffrey suggests that the ideal target for the Red Sox would be a plus defensive second baseman.

That’s not great news for Eugenio Suárez, who has drawn some level of interest from Boston, Pittsburgh and the incumbent Seattle. (Surely, others are also in the mix to varying extents.) The 34-year-old is fresh off a 49-homer campaign and would absolutely give the Sox the power bat they said they were targeting early in free agency, but Breslow’s comments following the Bregman pivot seem more focused on defense, and Suárez was dinged for negative grades by both Defensive Runs Saved (-6) and Outs Above Average (-3) between the D-backs and Mariners this past season.

On the flip side, it only further strengthens the idea of Boston taking a genuine run at Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner or, to a lesser extent, Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan. Hoerner is the premier second base defender in MLB and is earning $12MM in the final season of his contract. He hit .297/.345/.394 with a microscopic 7.6% strikeout rate and 29 steals this past season. The Cubs have at least heard out interested teams on Hoerner, particularly after signing Bregman, but they’d need immediate MLB-ready help on the pitching side of things to even consider moving him. It’s also feasible that they could listen on young infielder Matt Shaw, but he’d also come with a lofty ask given his six years of remaining club control.

Circling back for a third separate trade with the Cardinals, where Breslow’s predecessor Chaim Bloom is running baseball operations, would be highly unusual — but the fit is sensible. Bloom obviously is quite familiar with many of Boston’s farmhands, and the Cardinals are looking to max out Donovan’s trade value while he still has two seasons of club control left. Donovan is a left-handed hitter and isn’t as strong defensively as Hoerner, making him a lesser fit, but the multiple seasons of control and ability to pretty seamlessly slide to third base or left field — depending on team health/needs — is certainly appealing.

Payroll-wise, there shouldn’t be much off the table for the Sox. RosterResource pegs them at about $197MM in actual cash payroll, which is down from 2025’s mark and not close to the franchise-record $236MM Opening Day mark. Their $265MM luxury tax ledger is far heftier, thanks in large part to backloaded deals for Suárez, Roman Anthony, Brayan Bello, Kristian Campbell and Ceddanne Rafaela. They’re second-time payors who are currently in the second penalty tier, thus subjecting them to a 42% tax on the the next $19MM or so that they spend.

If the Red Sox were to add another $20MM or more to the CBT ledger, that’d bump the tax rate to 75% for subsequent additions and, more notably, drop their top pick in the 2026 draft by ten spots. That’s probably the primary deterrent to spending beyond that point, though with the possible exception of Eugenio Suárez, none of the potential infield targets in question would thrust Boston into the third tier of penalization anyhow.

Readers — Red Sox fans in particular — are encouraged to check out the three linked pieces in full, as each has more extensive quotes from Breslow on the team’s offseason goals and the team’s pursuit of (Ranger) Suárez.

Poll: What’s Next For The Red Sox Infield?

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The Red Sox were faced with a tough loss over the weekend when star third baseman Alex Bregman left the team to sign with the Cubs on a five-year, $175MM deal. That contract came in just $10MM ahead of Boston’s own offer in terms of sticker price, but deferred money and the lack of a no-trade clause further depreciated the Red Sox’ offer relative to that of the Cubs. The loss of Bregman left chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to search for a pivot, and he found just that yesterday when he signed southpaw Ranger Suarez to a five-year deal.

The $130MM pact places Suarez alongside Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray as a member of Boston’s front of the rotation headed into the season, but it did little to address the hole that Bregman’s departure creates on the infield. Yesterday’s deal helped to bring down the temperature among fans in Boston and ease the pressure on Breslow to find a star, but it’s not hard to see why an addition could still be attractive given the number of question marks and overall lack of impact all around the roster.

Trevor Story delivered a 20/20 season last year but will be 33 years old this year and just played 100 games in a season for the first time since 2021. Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell entered last season as two of the game’s top prospects but Mayer has a checkered injury history of his own while there’s been some indications the Red Sox could prefer Campbell in the outfield rather than the infield. Neither was an above-average hitter in 2025, either. While both are young enough for a potential big step forward, a team with World Series aspirations like the Red Sox would be taking a big risk if they hang their hopes on young talents figuring it out. Ceddanne Rafaela has experience at second base, but is one of baseball’s top defensive center fielders and might be wasted at the keystone.

It would be easy to say the Red Sox should simply sign one of the top infielders available in free agency, and there’s certainly merit to the argument. The Red Sox are a big market club that just dumped Rafael Devers’s salary on the Giants over the summer. RosterResource estimates a $266MM payroll for the club in terms of luxury tax dollars headed into 2026, a figure that falls $20MM behind the Yankees and $45MM behind the Blue Jays even when looking only at their rivals in the AL East.

On the other hand, Boston’s payroll is already the highest it’s ever been in terms of luxury tax dollars. Even the actual cash outlay is second only to the 2022 team in the post-Mookie Betts era. Trading away someone like Jordan Hicks or Masataka Yoshida could help but neither has huge trade value right now.

But they don’t have a ton of options left in free agency. Bregman is a Cub and Bo Bichette reportedly has an agreement in place with the Mets. Eugenio Suarez is still out there but it’s unclear how willing the Sox are to spend on him.

Perhaps the trade market is the best bet. the addition of Suarez only further bolstered a rotation that has an excess of quality options. Using a young pitcher like Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, or Kyle Harrison as part of a package to land an impact infielder certainly seems attractive. The team also has an excess of outfield talent at the moment, particularly given the fact that both Yoshida and Triston Casas figure to be battling for playing time at DH. Trading Casas or an outfielder like Jarren Duran could make sense to clean up that logjam somewhat.

The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Ketel Marte off the market but recent reporting has suggested that maybe Boston will try to change that stance. Even if he’s not realistic, there are still plenty of intriguing players who could be available via trade. Boston could make a third trade with the Cardinals and their newly-minted president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom in order to bring super utility man Brendan Donovan into the fold, though he would do little to balance a heavily left-handed lineup. Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner could be another option, though all indications are that Chicago would need to be overwhelmed in order to move their longtime infielder. It could be easier to pry away Matt Shaw, but the youngster isn’t much more well-established than Mayer and Campbell at this point, which could make him an imperfect fit for the team.

Perhaps the most attractive trade candidate out there at the moment would be Astros infielder Isaac Paredes, who was pushed off third base in Houston by the acquisition of Carlos Correa and has no clear path to everyday at-bats with his current team given the presence of Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez at first base and DH respectively. Paredes is no match for Bregman defensively, but Bregman himself showed that a player who benefits from the Crawford Boxes in Houston can enjoy similar success hitting off/over the Green Monster at Fenway Park. As a 124 wRC+ hitter over the past four years, Paredes would add a viable middle-of-the-order bat to the Boston infield and create an intriguing, high-upside corner infield duo with newly-minted first baseman Willson Contreras.

Perfect as that fit might seem on paper, however, the Astros have signaled their reluctance to moving him — despite what looks like an overcrowded infield mix. Regular playing time for Paredes would be just one Spring Training injury away, and GM Dana Brown said publicly in November that he has “no interest” in moving the righty-swinging slugger. With free agent alternatives dwindling on the open market, plenty of suitors for both Donovan and Hoerner that the Red Sox would need to compete with, and hesitance on the part of the Cubs and Astros to part with their players, pulling off a trade could be easier said than done at this stage of the offseason.

That leaves us to circle back to the possibility that the team doesn’t add a regular to the lineup this winter. Mayer and Campbell could enter camp as the favorites for third and second base respectively, though if the team remains committed to trying Campbell in the outfield, David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez could form a platoon at the keystone or Rafaela could shift back to the infield. If the Red Sox were to go this route, they would surely add a veteran infielder like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Yoan Moncada, or Ramon Urias to the lineup in order to provide some competition for the youngsters in Spring Training and overall improve the depth of what would be an injury-plagued infield mix. While it would be a risky move to rely mostly on internal options, it would offer Mayer and Campbell the best opportunity to carve out everyday roles for themselves and might be the only option at the team’s disposal if they aren’t able to pull off some kind of trade in the ten weeks remaining before Opening Day.

How do MLBTR readers think the Red Sox will look to round out their infield? Will they turn to a free agent like Suarez, even if it means finding a way to dump salary elsewhere on the roster? Could they instead try and work out a trade for someone like Paredes, Hoerner, or Donovan? Or will they instead rely primarily on their internal options? Have your say in the poll below:

How will the Red Sox fill out their infield?

  • They'll trade for a regular infielder like Paredes or Hoerner 46% (3,006)
  • They won't add a regular infielder and stick with internal options and depth signings 35% (2,288)
  • They'll sign a regular infielder like Suarez 19% (1,204)

Total votes: 6,498

Cubs Could Use Matt Shaw In Outfield

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The Cubs made a big addition to their infield this week by signing Alex Bregman to a five-year deal. That has led to speculation about the club then pivoting to a trade of another infielder, such as Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw. At Bregman’s introductory press conference today, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted that they have received more calls from other clubs about Hoerner and Shaw this week, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. But that doesn’t mean they plan to trade either and Hoyer said Shaw could spend some time in the outfield this year, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN, which would help him get into the lineup more.

The Cubs came into the winter with a projected infield alignment of Shaw at third, Dansby Swanson at short, Hoerner at second and Michael Busch at first. Adding Bregman at third blocks Shaw from a regular role. He has primarily been a third baseman but has dabbled in the middle infield as well. That has contributed somewhat to the Hoerner trade speculation. Since Hoerner is an impending free agent, there’s an argument for flipping him now and putting Shaw at second base.

But Hoerner is far more established as a useful big leaguer than Shaw. The latter just made his debut last year and has 126 big league games under his belt. In that time, he produced a subpar batting line of .226/.295/.394, leading to a 93 wRC+. He was better in the second half, with a .258/.317/.522 line and 130 wRC+, but in a fairly small sample of 205 plate appearances.

Hoerner, on the other hand, has been a regular for years. He played in at least 135 games in each of the past four campaigns. He doesn’t have huge power but is tough to strike out and has consistently been an above-average hitter with that contact approach. He also has excellent defense and speed. The combination has been worth at least 3.9 wins above replacement for four straight years, per FanGraphs.

Subtracting Hoerner and subbing in Shaw would run the risk of noticeably downgrading the team in 2026, a year in which the Cubs clearly want to compete. They just made the postseason in 2025 and have been aggressively adding to the club this winter via their Bregman signing and the Edward Cabrera trade.

If some team gives them a strong offer, they would naturally have to consider the pros and cons. Just in the past week, the Giants, Mariners and Yankees have been connected to Hoerner in rumors. But it also appears the club could be leaning towards using Shaw in a utility capacity this year. If Hoerner is not extended, he would depart after 2026, opening up second base for Shaw to have a more regular role.

Shaw doesn’t have outfield experience as a professional. Since being selected 13th overall in 2023, he has played third base and the two middle infield spots in the minors. In the big leagues last year, he mostly played third with just six innings at the keystone and none at shortstop. He did play a bit of outfield in the early parts of his collegiate career but was mostly kept in the middle infield as time went on.

During his major league time last year, Shaw’s sprint speed was ranked in the 90th percentile of major leaguers. That athleticism gives him a nice head-start in terms of being a viable outfielder but the Cubs will presumably want to get him reps in spring if they plan to follow through on using Shaw as a super utility guy.

Teams love that kind of versatility and there could be clear benefits for the Cubs in terms of playing matchups. Shaw hits from the right side and had noticeable platoon splits in his first big league season. He had a .218/.287/.362 line and 82 wRC+ against righties but a .250/.318/.490 line and 125 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.

The Cubs project to have a few lefty bats in their regular lineup, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, Busch at first base and Moisés Ballesteros likely doing some catching and serving as the designated hitter. They all have fared better against righties in their respective careers, with Crow-Armstrong having particular struggles against southpaws. Ian Happ is also a switch-hitter who has had more success as a lefty bat in his career.

There’s also the fact that Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield with the way the roster is currently constructed. He was largely the designated hitter last year but the departure of Kyle Tucker means he is slated to take more time on the grass. Outs Above Average has ranked Suzuki as six outs below par in his career and Defensive Runs Saved has put him at negative five. Even if he gets a lot of starts, the Cubs could look to replace him defensively late in games. Having another viable outfielder on the roster naturally helps there.

This is all contingent on everyone being healthy, as one injury quickly changes the whole picture, but that also underscores the importance of having some versatility. If Shaw is able to viably play the outfield, then it makes it easier to rotate players around based on health and matchups. Currently, the bench projects to have backup catcher Miguel Amaya and first baseman Tyler Austin alongside Shaw and outfielder Justin Dean. The latter is a strong defender and baserunner but has bigger questions about his bat. He is also still optionable.

Getting into the lineup regularly would also be good for Shaw from a developmental perspective. As mentioned, he only just made his major league debut last year. He was subpar at the plate overall but seemingly got better as the season progressed. Going into a part-time role and missing reps wouldn’t be ideal for the long term, especially if he’s to take over for Hoerner at second base a year from now. Finding a way for him to take 400 to 600 plate appearances, even though he doesn’t have a clear position, would be good for both him and the club.

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

Latest On Mariners’ Trade Targets

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This week’s trade sending Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona and the Cubs’ weekend signing of Alex Bregman figure to accelerate the market surrounding various trade and free agent scenarios. One club that could directly be impacted is the Mariners, who’ve spent the bulk of the winter trying to add another infielder after re-signing Josh Naylor on a five-year contract early in the offseason.

Seattle’s interest in Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan is no secret. They were linked to him last offseason and have been reported to be one of his most prominent suitors this winter. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports that in addition to Donovan, the Mariners have had “ongoing” discussions with the Cardinals about left-handed reliever JoJo Romero throughout the winter. Seattle already added one southpaw arm for the bullpen, acquiring Jose A. Ferrer from the Nationals in December, and they have a second outstanding option in Gabe Speier, who enjoyed a breakout year in 2025 (and was just added to the Team USA roster for the upcoming World Baseball Classic).

Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that Donovan is the Mariners’ top target on the trade market but adds that the M’s also have interest in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner. The veteran Hoerner’s name has come up in trade speculation since the Bregman signing, though it seems unlikely a deal will actually come together. Chicago appears willing to listen as a matter of due diligence but would presumably need to be overwhelmed and receive substantial big league talent to trade Hoerner coming off a .297/.345/.394 season that saw him swipe 29 bases, win his second Gold Glove and finish sixth in the National League with 6.2 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference (or 15th with 4.8 fWAR, for those who prefer FanGraphs’ version of the statistic).

[Related: Giants Aggressively Pursuing Second Base Upgrade]

At this point, the fit between Donovan and the Mariners has been explored at length. He’s an affordable ($5.8MM in 2026) high-contact bat with good on-base and defensive skills who can handle either of the two currently unsettled positions in the Seattle infield: second base or third base. The M’s have plenty of highly touted prospects who could emerge at those positions — Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Michael Arroyo among them — but Donovan could also move to an outfield corner if those promising young players force the issue. He’s under control through the 2027 season via arbitration.

Romero was previously linked to the Mariners, but that was before the team acquired Ferrer. It’s notable that Jones implies there have been talks even after that swap. The 29-year-old lefty has been a mainstay in the Cardinals’ bullpen for three-plus seasons now and has steadily shown year-over-year improvement. In 2025, he tossed a career-high 61 innings with a career-best 2.07 earned run average. Romero saved eight games, tallied 24 holds and blew only one opportunity. He fanned a slightly below-average 21.6% of his opponents against a bloated 11.4% walk rate that stands as a major outlier relative to the career 7.7% walk rate he carried into the ’25 season. The lefty also kept a hefty 54.5% of batted balls on the ground.

The Cardinals signed Romero to a $4.26MM contract for the upcoming season — his final year of club control. While last year’s hiccup in terms of command is of at least some concern, the broader track record is quite strong. Since joining the Cardinals, Romero boasts a flat 3.00 ERA (3.61 SIERA) with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 53.7% ground-ball rate, 57 holds and 12 saves. The Orioles and Yankees are among the others to show interest in Romero, though it’s a veritable certainty that the field of interested clubs is much larger than just these three.

Echoing previous reporting from The Athletic’s Katie Woo, Jude suggests that at least a pair of top-100 prospects — switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfielder Lazaro Montes — have been discussed in talks with the Cardinals. The exact permutations of those talks remains murky. There’s no firm indication that St. Louis has sought both in the same package for Donovan, just as there’s no certainty that Seattle has offered both. It’s certainly possible that Romero’s name has come up as part of a package talk involving one or both those ballyhooed young players. Whatever shape those negotiations have taken, they (obviously) have yet to culminate in a deal.

Hoerner, much like Donovan, is a straightforward fit for the Mariners. The previously mentioned Cole Young is currently in line to open the season at second base for the M’s. He’s a former first-round pick and top-50 prospect, but Young hit just .211/.302/.305 in his first 77 MLB games last year. He won’t even turn 23 until late July, so there’s plenty of time for him to develop into a quality regular, but the Mariners are built to win right now. Hoerner, a free agent next winter who’s signed for $12MM in 2026, would give the Mariners an immediate upgrade while affording them the luxury of additional development time for Young. As a bonus, Seattle could extend a qualifying offer to Hoerner next November, netting them a compensatory draft pick in the event that he signs elsewhere.

Again, the Cubs are not outright shopping Hoerner but are willing to hear other clubs out. They’re almost certainly not going to trade him for prospects who are years from MLB readiness; doing so would offset most or even all of the wins gained by bringing Bregman into the fold. It’s hard to come up with a direct exchange that would benefit both parties equally, but the Mariners are nothing if not aggressive and creative on the trade front.

At present, RosterResource projects the Mariners for just under $157MM in 2026 payroll. That’s a bit shy of the franchise-record $158MM Opening Day payroll and a ways south of the roughly $167MM figure at which they ended the 2025 campaign. Given the win-now push in Seattle and the extra revenue from a deep playoff run that saw the Mariners advance to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, it stands to reason that ownership is willing to push payroll beyond those marks.

Poll: Will The Cubs Trade From Their Infield?

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The Cubs made a major splash over the weekend by landing star third baseman Alex Bregman on a five-year deal. As a multi-time All-Star who reliably offers Gold Glove defense at third base and posts offense in the 125 wRC+ range, Bregman is sure to provide a major lift to the club headed into 2026. Strong as the signing is for the team, however, it also creates questions about the future of some of their other players. The 2025 Cubs ended the season with regulars all around the infield. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner handled shortstop and second base for the third consecutive season, while Matt Shaw entered 2025 as the team’s top prospect and had taken over third base on a regular basis by the end of the year.

The addition of Bregman leaves the club with four infielders for three positions. The designated hitter spot could help. With Kyle Tucker not expected to re-sign with the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield in 2026. However, Moises Ballesteros is currently the favorite for the DH spot, as he had a strong debut with the bat in 2025 but is considered a work in progress as a catcher.

Having too many guys is a good problem to have but it’s still worth considering whether the Cubs will do something to break up that logjam in the short-term. If they don’t, Shaw is likely to be the odd man out. He has options remaining and could certainly be sent to Triple-A Iowa to open the season, though he could also be carried on the club’s bench in a utility capacity. Hoerner is set to hit free agency following the 2026 season, so perhaps the likeliest option is Shaw taking a depth role for this year before taking over at second base when Hoerner reaches free agency next winter.

That’s a plan that comes with flaws in the short- and long-term, however. For one, Shaw losing the opportunity to get consistent, major league at-bats could have an adverse effect on his development. The 24-year-old turned in a decent rookie season in 2025, slashing .226/.295/.394 (93 wRC+) overall in 126 games. Those overall numbers are hardly exceptional, but he improved as the season went on. After the All-Star break, Shaw slashed a very impressive .258/.317/.522 with a wRC+ of 130 as he crushed ten doubles, three triples, and 11 homers in just 205 trips to the plate.

That considerable power potential Shaw flashed is certainly enticing, but it could be difficult for Shaw to build on that success if faced with either inconsistent playing time in a bench role or minor league competition at Triple-A. As noted by The Athletic’s Keith Law in the aftermath of the Bregman signing, Shaw went through several mechanical changes throughout 2025 and at times resisted help from the Cubs’ coaching staff. The youngster’s numbers took a turn for the worse during the final weeks of September and into the postseason, so it’s possible there’s more tweaks left for him to make as well.

That could make trading either Hoerner or Shaw himself a viable outcome. Hoerner’s name has popped up semi-frequently as a trade candidate over the past two offseasons, and it’s certainly easy to see why rival teams would have interest. The 28-year-old is coming off a career year in 2025. He posted a 109 wRC+ and struck out at a microscopic 7.6% clip in 154 games for Chicago. Over the past four years since becoming an everyday player, Hoerner has slashed .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) with an above-average wRC+ in every season. He’s paired that solid bat with elite defense at second base and also demonstrated the ability to be a above-average defensive shortstop before being bumped to the keystone by the team’s signing of Swanson back in 2023.

Taken together, Hoerner has been worth 19.6 bWAR and 17.5 fWAR over the past four seasons. That consistent four-to-five win production up the middle is certainly attractive, especially with Hoerner set to make an affordable $12MM salary this year.

The Mariners, Giants, and Yankees are among the teams that have been connected to him in trade to this point. Even as teams have come calling after Hoerner, however, the Cubs seem unlikely to deal him. Signing one impact infielder just to trade another would undercut the improvement offered by signing Bregman, and so it’s not a shock that The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma has suggested that the Cubs would have to be “blown away” in order to deal Hoerner.

Perhaps, then, trading Shaw to a team where he could get consistent playing time in a bid to either add more impact to the roster or beef up a flagging farm system could be the best course of action available to the Cubs. Shaw still has six years of team control remaining and will make the league minimum in 2026, meaning that he could be a fit for a number of teams that might want to upgrade their offense on the cheap. The Pirates, Guardians, Royals, Athletics, Angels, and Nationals are all teams that struggled to find production at either second or third base last year and could appreciate Shaw’s years of control and affordable price tag.

Even that comes with risks, however. Shaw’s value is arguably down relative to this time last year, when he was a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. Additionally, Hoerner’s status as a pending free agent would make trading Shaw a big risk if not paired with an extension for Hoerner. The upcoming free agent class is reasonably deep in middle infield talent (Ha-Seong Kim, J.P. Crawford, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) but successfully landing one of those players is no guarantee. The team’s internal options behind Shaw are lackluster, as well. James Triantos was once one of the team’s better prospects but had a disastrous season at Triple-A last year that calls into question his prospect status. Jefferson Rojas had a solid year in 2025 but may not be big league ready by 2027.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will handle their infield logjam? Will they work out a trade involving Shaw or Hoerner prior to Opening Day, or will they simply carry both players into the season despite the lack of playing time available? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Cubs Trade An Infielder This Offseason?

  • No, they'll keep both players. 56% (3,078)
  • Yes, they'll trade Nico Hoerner. 26% (1,443)
  • Yes, they'll trade Matt Shaw. 17% (937)

Total votes: 5,458

Giants Aggressively Pursuing Second Base Upgrade

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That the Giants are in the market for help at second base is well known at this point, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that San Francisco has been particularly “aggressive” in its pursuit of late, with recent talks regarding a pair of NL Central standouts: Nico Hoerner of the Cubs and Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals. Both were known targets for the Giants already, but it’s notable that they’re ostensibly ramping up their efforts to make a deal happen.

Giants second basemen were among the least-productive in all of baseball in 2025, hitting a combined .217/.273/.343. The resulting 73 wRC+ (indicating they were 27% worse than average at the plate) ranked 27th in the majors, leading only the Angels, A’s and Rockies. Tyler Fitzgerald led San Francisco with 233 plate appearances as the team’s second baseman, followed by Casey Schmitt (193), Christian Koss (137) and Brett Wisely (43). All four posted well below-average numbers with the bat while playing second base (though Schmitt hit better while playing other positions and was close to league-average with the bat overall).

Either Donovan or Hoerner would stand as a major upgrade. Both will play next season at 29 years old. Both are established contact hitters with defensive versatility, although the presence of Matt Chapman and Willy Adames on the left side of the infield would lessen the Giants’ need to take advantage of that positional flexibility. Donovan, who agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.8MM to avoid arbitration last week, is controlled through the 2027 season. Hoerner is owed $12MM in the final season of his three-year, $35MM contract this season.

Donovan figures to be the more readily available of the two in trade talks. The Cardinals are in the early stages of a multiyear rebuilding effort under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom. They’ve already shipped out Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras in separate trades to the Red Sox, and they’ve been fielding interest in lefty JoJo Romero while also working to find a taker for Nolan Arenado. Donovan’s remaining two years of club control don’t align with a realistic path to contention in St. Louis, and of all the team’s offseason trade assets, he stands as the one most likely to net a significant return.

Since making his MLB debut four years ago, Donovan has done nothing but hit. He carries a lifetime .282/.361/.411 slash in the batter’s box (119 wRC+) and has regularly proven to be one of the game’s toughest strikeouts. He drew a walk in 8.2% of his plate appearances in 2025 (9.1% career) and fanned at only a 13% clip (13.5% career). Donovan’s power is below average — he’s never topped 14 homers in a season — but he’s a former All-Star and Gold Glove winner who can also handle third base and the outfield corners (and perhaps some shortstop, in a pinch).

Hoerner is statistically one of Donovan’s most comparable hitters. Over the past five seasons, his .285/.342/.388 line (106 wRC+) closely resembles Donovan’s production. Hoerner runs far more often (131 steals to Donovan’s 15) and would be a plus defender at shortstop if not for the fact that he slid over to second base in deference to Dansby Swanson at shortstop.

Unlike the Cardinals, however, the Cubs are in clear win-now mode. Trading Hoerner just days after agreeing to a five-year deal with Alex Bregman would offset much of the good brought about by that Bregman signing. Given that, it seems quite likely that the Cubs would seek immediate MLB talent in any trade involving Hoerner, and the cost of acquisition would be fairly steep. Chicago could always move former top prospect Matt Shaw to second base — he might be the heir-apparent there now anyhow — but the Cubs could also simply keep all three infielders for the 2026 season and use Shaw in a utility role before handing second base to him full-time in 2027.

Payroll-wise, the Giants should have little problem fitting either player into the picture. RosterResource currently projects a $185MM payroll for San Francisco. That’s up a few million from last year’s levels but also a ways shy of the $200MM franchise record set back in 2018. And considering the fact that over the past 18 months, ownership has made three separate nine-figure commitments (Chapman’s $151MM extension, Adames’ $182MM contract, the $250MM+ remaining on Devers’ contract), it stands to reason that they’re at least open to further additions.

It bears mentioning that there’s no indication from Passan that Hoerner and Donovan are the only two targets on which the Giants are focused. The free-agent market still has one high-profile option in Bo Bichette, and even if he lands elsewhere, that deal itself could create some potential avenues for the Giants to explore. If Bichette were to sign in Philadelphia, for instance, the Phillies might be more inclined to part with Bryson Stott than would otherwise be the case. If he ended up in Boston, the Red Sox might have some additional infielders to discuss in trades. There are various paths the Giants can consider and other needs left to address on the roster (namely the bullpen), but having added Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser in the rotation, it appears second base is their focus for the time being.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Nico Hoerner, Luis Robert Jr.

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At the start of the offseason, it felt inevitable that the Yankees and Cody Bellinger would reunite. That may still happen but it seems up in the air at the moment. Talks between the two sides have seemingly stalled out. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports today that both sides have been exploring alternatives lately. Bellinger has interest from other clubs. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been touching base with free agents Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, who they have been connected to previously. They’ve also checked in on trade candidates Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs. The Yanks’ interest in Hoerner was first reported by Pat Ragazzo of SI.

Bellinger spent 2025 in the Bronx and it seemed to go well. He hit 29 home runs and slashed .27/.334/.480 for a wRC+ 125. He stole 13 bases and played all three outfield slots as well as first base. He appeared to be especially comfortable in Yankee Stadium, slashing .302/.365/.544 there. He opted out of the final season of his contract, taking a $5MM buyout and leaving a $25MM salary on the table. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Bellinger to have enough juice for a five-year, $140MM deal.

It was reported on New Year’s Day that the Yanks had made an offer to Bellinger. A few days later came reports of a second offer. No details of either offer were initially revealed but further reporting indicated the sides weren’t close to a deal. Subsequent reporting has put the Yankee offer at five years and over $30MM annually, putting the guarantee somewhere in the vicinity of $155MM. That hasn’t been enough to get a deal done with Bellinger hoping to get to seven years.

It seems the two sides have taken a break from the staredown to look elsewhere. Heyman says they continued talking over the weekend but each party is considering alternatives. Heyman mentions the Dodgers, Giants and Mets as clubs believed to have interest in Bellinger. Those clubs have all been tied to Bellinger via rumors earlier this winter but are imperfect fits. All three could use outfield help to varying degrees but they also appear to be trying to avoid long-term commitments at the moment.

Since the hold-up between the Yankees and Bellinger appears to be the length of their offer, it’s hard to envision any of these clubs outbidding the Yankees. Any of the three could perhaps change their stance to take advantage of this opportunity but it also could be more likely that those clubs would prefer to get Bellinger via another short-term, opt-out laden deal. It’s unclear if he would want to do that after going down that road a couple of years ago, but it presumably depends on where things go in the next few weeks.

The Blue Jays have also been connected to Bellinger this winter but it seems they are more focused on Bichette and Tucker with Bellinger perhaps a backup plan. The Cubs were also connected to their old friend Bellinger this winter but signing Alex Bregman is presumably their big splash of the winter.

For the Yankees, they could perhaps increase their offer but are also seeing what else is on the menu. With Hoerner, it’s unclear if the Cubs have any interest in trading him but he has been in rumors and it’s arguable they should consider it. Hoerner is a good player but is a free agent after 2026. With the Cubs recently signing Bregman, their infield is now a bit cluttered. Putting Bregman at third bumps Matt Shaw to the bench.

If they wanted to, the Cubs could trade Hoerner and then move Shaw to second base. That would declutter things a bit and also should bring back something of note. Hoerner’s $12MM salary this year is very affordable considering his production. He doesn’t hit a ton of home runs but rarely strikes out, relying on his contact, speed and defense to provide value. It’s a combination that works, as FanGraphs has credited him with 3.9 wins above replacement or more in each of the past four years.

It could also give the Cubs a bit more breathing room in terms of the competitive balance tax. The Cubs went narrowly above the CBT in 2024 but have otherwise stayed under the line in each season from 2021 to the present.

RosterResource currently estimates them for a CBT number of just over $243MM, putting them less than a million from this year’s line. A team’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the year, so in-season moves can move a club up or down. If the Cubs want to avoid the tax in 2026, creating some space now could be something they consider to give them more ability to make moves at the deadline.

For the Yankees, Hoerner wouldn’t help replace Bellinger in the outfield but he should make the team better. Though he has largely been a second baseman for the Cubs, he is considered good enough to be a shortstop. He has just been on the other side of the bag in deference to Dansby Swanson.

The Yanks have an uncertain shortstop situation at present, hence their previous connection to Bichette. Anthony Volpe is coming off a down year and may not be ready for Opening Day 2026 as he recovers from shoulder surgery. José Caballero currently projects as the top shortstop for the early season, though he has mostly been a utility guy in his career. If the Yanks add a shortstop, then he could return to that role.

The thinking with signing Bichette had a couple of attractions. He could upgrade the shortstop position now, then second base in the future. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is currently the club’s second baseman but he is slated for free agency after the upcoming season. With the Yanks having shortstop prospect George Lombard Jr. waiting in the wings, Bichette could cover short for a year and then slide to the other side of the bag with either Lombard or a resurgent Volpe at short.

Hoener wouldn’t be quite the same acquisition, barring an extension, as he is only signed through 2026. Still, that would likely have appeal for the Yankees in a different way. They could upgrade the middle infield for now without making a huge commitment. After 2026, depending on how things go with Lombard, Volpe, Hoerner and Chisholm, they could then decide about how to invest in the middle infield for the long term.

They would, however, have to give the Cubs something of value in return. As mentioned, it’s unclear if the Cubs have any interest at all in flipping Hoerner. Even if they do, they would presumably be looking for some kind of win-now upgrade, likely on the pitching staff. With the Yanks looking for pitching help themselves, it may be challenging to line up a deal that makes sense for both sides.

As for Robert, he is surely available but also tricky to value. He has shown borderline MVP upside but is coming off two years marred by injuries and underperformance. In 2023, he hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases, slashed .264/.315/.542 and got strong grades for his center field defense. But since then, he has made a number of trips to the injured list while slashing .223/.288/.372 for a wRC+ of 84.

The White Sox are rebuilding and will surely trade Robert but are seemingly hoping to trade him at peak value. He wasn’t moved in 2025 even though it was the final guaranteed year of his contract. They picked up a $20MM option for 2026. Teams like the Yankees and others might want to buy low but the Sox are likely motivated to wait. After his down year, it would make sense to hold him until the deadline, with the hope of him getting back in form and therefore increasing his trade value.

The Yankee outfield currently projects to include Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham in two spots. If the season started today, Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones would battle for a third. Domínguez is coming off a rough year in 2025, with an average bat and poor defense. Jones hit 35 home runs in the minors last year but also struck out 35.4% of the time, creating some doubt about how viable his bat will be in the majors.

Acquiring Hoerner wouldn’t do much to change that picture but perhaps the Yanks would be more comfortable with the uncertainty of the Domínguez/Jones combo with a stronger infield. Bringing back Bellinger, signing Tucker or acquiring Robert would strengthen the outfield group, bumping Domínguez to more of a part-time role and keeping Jones in Triple-A.

There are many moving pieces here as the offseason moves into the final weeks before pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Tucker, Bichette and Bellinger are the top position players still out there, with a lot of overlapping interest. The Jays are seemingly in on all three, considered by some to be the favorites for Tucker but a Bichette reunion also makes sense. Like Bellinger, Bichette is considering other options. He is meeting with the Phillies today, although that is a bit complicated, as Philadelphia would seemingly have to move on from both J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm to fit Bichette onto the roster and into the budget. The Red Sox just missed on Bregman and could turn to Bichette but they don’t seem too keen on big long-term investments. The Dodgers, Giants and Mets may be looking to get opportunistic if a nice short-term opportunity becomes possible.

It’s a bit of a game of musical chairs with the Yankees and Bellinger some of the key participants. Bregman just found a seat in Chicago but others will have to sit soon. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about a month, so the music is slowing down.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

Giants Have Shown Interest In Nico Hoerner

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The Giants are known to be looking for upgrades at second base. Earlier this week, they were reported as one of the frontrunners for Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals and were also connected to Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that they have checked in on Nico Hoerner of the Cubs. She also lists Brandon Lowe of the Rays as one of their targets.

It’s an understandable target for the Giants. Most of their playing time at the keystone went to Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt and Christian Koss in 2025. All three of those guys had underwhelming seasons at the plate. Schmitt was the closest the league average offensively but with the weakest defensive grades.

Free agency doesn’t offer huge upgrades over that group. Bo Bichette is out there and reportedly willing to play second, but the Giants have downplayed their desire to sign another long-term deal this winter. Ha-Seong Kim, Jorge Polanco and Gleyber Torres are all off the board. Utility types like Ramón Urías, Willi Castro and Isiah Kiner-Falefa don’t move the needle much over the in-house options.

On the trade market, Marte has been in plenty of rumors but it’s still unclear if the Diamondbacks will move him. Even if they decide to pull the trigger, it would be a surprise to see him sent to their division rivals in San Francisco. Donovan is widely expected to move since he is on a rebuilding club and two years from free agency, but the asking price should be huge. Since he can play all over the diamond, he can fit on many clubs and the demand is widespread. Though the Giants are apparently one of the finalists, half the teams in the league have shown in interest.

Hoerner and Lowe have very similar contractual situations. Both players are only signed through 2026 and would therefore be rentals. Lowe will make a $11.5MM salary next year and Hoerner $12MM.

But they have opposite profiles and their team situations are very different. Lowe is injury prone, doesn’t run well and isn’t a great defender. His strikeout and walk profile has been poor in each of the past two years. However, he’s a clear source of power. He has hit 21 home runs four separate times, including a 31-homer season in 2025. It’s common for the Rays to trade away players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Tommy Pham are some of the many examples.

Hoerner, however, does not have huge power. He has never hit more than ten home runs in a season. However, he’s better than Lowe in basically every other aspect. He hasn’t been on the injured list in years. He’s one of the faster guys in the game and is generally good for 30ish steals a year. He’s one of the toughest guys in the game to strike out. He’s a good enough defender to play shortstop. The only reason he’s at second is because the Cubs have Dansby Swanson.

The Cubs shouldn’t be especially motivated to move him. He is affordable and has been good for about four to five wins above replacement per year, according to FanGraphs. He has reportedly drawn trade interest but the Cubs should be able to set a high asking price since he’s valuable to them as well. His salary isn’t onerous and the Cubs don’t appear to have any kind of payroll crunch.

It’s at least possible to imagine a scenario where the Cubs think about it. As mentioned, Hoerner is an impending free agent. The Cubs could extend him again but he also could get more interest elsewhere. Looking at next year’s free agent class, Hoerner could potentially market himself as the best available shortstop. His competition would be J.P. Crawford and Kim. Crawford is a decent player but his glovework has been poor in recent years and he’ll be going into his age-32 season in 2027. Kim could bounce back from an injury-marred 2025 but he has a similar profile to Hoerner and is a year older. Kim will be 31 in 2027. Hoerner will turn 30 in May of that year.

Perhaps Hoerner expects to get paid big shortstop bucks next winter and the Cubs don’t see a path to keeping him with Swanson signed through 2029. They have been connected to free agent third basemen Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suárez. In that scenario, perhaps Matt Shaw becomes available on the trade market or he could move to second with Hoerner traded. Shaw mostly played third in the majors this year but has second base experience. He got six big league innings at the keystone in 2025 and has close to 300 minor league innings there in his career.

Trading Hoerner and moving to Shaw to second would be a defensive downgrade. That’s not really a knock on Shaw, who graded out well at third this year, just a reflection of Hoerner being arguably the best defensive second baseman in the game today. But adding a big bat like Bregman or Suárez could make up for the Cubs losing Kyle Tucker to free agency. Whether that upgrades the club in 2026 would be debatable but it would certainly help in the long run if the Cubs don’t expect to retain Hoerner beyond 2026.

It’s unknown whether the Cubs have any interest in such a scenario. It also doesn’t seem like the Giants are primarily focused on second base. Slusser writes that pitching and the outfield are the club’s current priorities. Since Donovan can also play the outfield, the Giants probably have him above Hoerner on their target list. With the number of moving pieces in the second base trade market, perhaps someone needs to blink and knock over the first domino. If the Cardinals pull the trigger on Donovan, for instance, teams could then pivot to the other options.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

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