MLBTR Podcast: Lots Of Extensions And Big-Picture Topics
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Mariners signing an extension with Colt Emerson (1:20)
- The Brewers agreeing to an extension with Cooper Pratt (19:05)
- The Orioles signing an extension with Shane Baz (28:40)
- The Cubs signing extensions with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner (38:00)
- Free agents coming from Japan getting less than expected this offseason (53:35)
- The Tarik Skubal arbitration decision potentially being a paradigm shift (59:15)
- The economics of the game with the collective bargaining agreement expiring in less than a year (1:05:50)
- Did the short-term deals for Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette signal a new trend? (1:22:45)
- Dealing with high-spending clubs with draft pick penalties instead of financial penalties (1:31:00)
- Can the Brewers continue to win after trading away some valuable guys? (1:38:10)
- The exciting crop of 2026 rookies (1:41:15)
- Can the Pirates push into contention in a crowded NL Central? (1:43:40)
- The excitement around the introduction of the ABS system (1:44:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- The PCA and Sanchez Extensions, And Prospect Promotions And Reassignments – listen here
- Banged-Up Reds And Braves, Kevin McGonigle, And Spring Breakouts – listen here
- Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Poll: Which Recent Cubs Extension Will Age Better?
The Cubs have made a huge splash on the extension front over the past week by locking up a pair of their core position players long-term. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and second baseman Nico Hoerner have signed extensions that will keep them in Chicago through the end of the 2032 season. It’s an exciting development for fans on the North Side. With the team’s recent addition of Alex Bregman plus players like Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson already under long-term control, the Cubs now have a core of position players to build around for the next several years.
That came at a price. Crow-Armstrong’s deal guarantees him $115MM and could climb another $18MM based on his MVP finishes. Hoerner’s deal is even more substantial, guaranteeing him $141MM (although deferred money lowers the net present value slightly to $137.5MM). Those are significant investments and big bets on the pair to continue performing after they turned in career years in 2025. Which one is more likely to live up to those expectations?
The case for Crow-Armstrong is one rooted in his youth and massive upside. His season-long stats in 2025 (including a 109 wRC+, 31 homers, 35 steals, and 6.0 bWAR/5.4 fWAR) could be argued to actually register as a bit of a disappointment based on what he did in the first half, when he was a legitimate early contender for the NL MVP award. 25 of those home runs and 27 of those steals came before the All-Star break, at which point he was slashing a sensational .265/.302/.544. A deep slump throughout August and September raised some concerns, however, as he hit just .188/.237/.295 over the season’s final two months. Crow-Armstrong’s speed and defense are enough to make him a viable major league player even when he’s flirting with the Mendoza line, but he’ll need to do a lot better than that to justify a nine-figure deal.
Can he find the consistency necessary to make the deal a good one? There’s certainly reasons to think so. While Crow-Armstrong struggled in terms of results down the stretch last year, he actually improved his plate discipline somewhat. His 35.6% out-of-zone swing rate and 86.2% in-zone contact rate since August 1 were both better than his season-long figures of 41.9% and 84.0%, respectively. Crow-Armstrong’s struggles late in the 2026 campaign were more about a power outage than an increase in poor swing decisions. If he can carry those improved swing decisions into the future while tapping into his first-half power, he’ll be a superstar. If his first-half power surge proves to be more of a flash in the pan than something sustainable, it’s possible the Cubs could wind up regretting the deal.
By contrast, Hoerner is a much more consistent player with a well-established track record. Since becoming an everyday player in 2022, Hoerner has hit .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) overall. He’s been remarkably consistent year-to-year, as well. His wRC+ has always fallen between 102 and 109, and he’s stolen at least 20 bases every season. After injury woes early in his career, he’s become a reliable presence on the field with at least 640 plate appearances in each of the past three years. He pairs that consistency and availability with superb defense that’s won him two Gold Gloves at the keystone and allowed him to post between 3.8 and 4.8 fWAR (3.7 and 6.2 bWAR) in each of his seasons as a regular.
That profile also comes with limited offensive upside, however. If there’s another gear to Hoerner’s game, it could be proving that his career-best 7.6% strikeout rate from 2025 is repeatable. Hoerner has a career strikeout rate of just 11.0%, so he’s a good bet to make contact at an elite rate in any year, but last season saw him punch out just 49 times total. Luis Arraez, Andrelton Simmons, and Kevin Newman are the only other players to strike out fewer than 50 times in a season where they recorded at least 550 plate appearances since 2015. Outside of that, however, Hoerner seems unlikely to take a step into MVP-candidate territory.
$141MM is a lot to spend on a player who doesn’t make much of a power impact. The fact that Hoerner will finish his contract at the end of his age-35 season while Crow-Armstrong will be wrapping up his age-30 campaign offers additional reasons for skepticism that Hoerner will be able to outproduce Crow-Armstrong. Another question is about health. Crow-Armstrong has not suffered a major injury since arriving in the majors, while Hoerner (despite his iron man status in the past few seasons) dealt with forearm, hamstring, oblique, ankle, and knee issues early in his career that stand as warning signs as he enters his 30s.
What do MLBTR readers think of Chicago’s recent pair of extensions? Which deal will be looked back on as the better investment when all is said and done? Will Crow-Armstrong’s youth and upside lead to a big win for the Cubs, or will he be unable to match the stability and consistency that Hoerner figures to provide? Will Hoerner stay healthy and stave off age-related decline for long enough to provide that stability throughout the deal? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Cubs player will be more productive through the end of the 2032 season?
Cubs, Nico Hoerner Agree To Extension
The Cubs and infielder Nico Hoerner have agreed to a six-year contract extension. Hoerner was slated for free agency after this year, with 2026 being the final season of his previous extension. Hoerner will make $141MM as part of his new deal, which starts in 2027 and will cover Hoerner’s age-30 to age-35 seasons before concluding in 2032. The Apex Baseball client receives a $5MM signing bonus as part of the deal, which also includes a full no-trade clause.
He will make $23MM per year in 2027 and 2028, then $22.5MM per year from 2029 through 2032. $2.5MM of Hoerner’s annual salary in the 2029-32 seasons is deferred. The deferred money in the deal knocks the net present value down to $137.5MM.
Hoerner’s pact is in the range of free agent deals for middle infielders. Trevor Story and Javier Báez each got $140MM over six. Hoerner just barely goes past those two, while coming in a bit under Marcus Semien‘s $175MM, Swanson’s $177MM and Willy Adames‘s $182MM, which were all seven-year deals.
Hoerner, 29 in May, has been the a key part of the Cubs for several years now. He doesn’t have a ton of power but provides strong offense with a consistent contact approach. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has almost 2500 plate appearances. His 6.4% walk rate and 10.2% strikeout rate are both well below league average. He only has 33 home runs in that time. But the contact approach has resulted in a .284/.339/.389 line and 105 wRC+ for that span. He finished each of those four seasons with a wRC+ from 102 to 109.
He combines that offense with strong attributes in other facets of his game. He has stolen 123 bases in that four-year span, with at least 20 in each season. Defensively, he is considered to be good enough to handle shortstop but has been bumped to the other side of the bag by the presence of Dansby Swanson. That has made him one of the best defensive second basemen in the league. Dating back to the start of 2023, the year he moved to second base, he has 32 Defensive Runs Saved and 35 Outs Above Average. The DRS total is behind only Andrés Giménez and Brice Turang, while the OAA number is behind only Giménez and Marcus Semien.
The combination is a valuable one. FanGraphs has credited him with a little more than four wins above replacement per year for a total of 17.4 fWAR since the start of 2022. He didn’t finish any of those four seasons lower than 3.8 fWAR.
Three years ago, the Cubs and Hoerner agreed to their first extension, a three-year deal worth $35MM. That was a bit of an odd deal, as it bought out Hoerner’s two arbitration seasons and then just one free agent year. Hoerner delayed his path to the open market for a relatively modest price.
As that deal played out, Hoerner became a plausible trade candidate for a few reasons. For one, he was getting closer to free agency, which often leads to increased trade speculation with many players. The Cubs also had some infield prospects pushing towards the majors, with Matt Shaw making his major league debut last year. The Cubs could have traded Hoerner to address another area of the roster, then put Shaw at second base. Given that another club could have put Hoerner at shortstop, perhaps that would have increased the trade return.
Instead, the Cubs are locking in another piece of their core. Third baseman Alex Bregman is signed through 2030 and Swanson through 2029. They agreed to a long-term deal with Pete Crow-Armstrong just a few days ago, so he’s going to be signed through 2032. Assuming this Hoerner deal starts in 2027, it will also run through 2032.
After 2026, the Cubs were facing a potentially huge amount of roster turnover. Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Hoby Milner, Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto and Tyler Austin are all impending free agents. Matthew Boyd, Hunter Harvey, Carson Kelly and Caleb Thielbar all have mutual options for 2027 but those are almost never picked up by both sides, so they should all be considered impending free agents as well. That is still something the club will have to plan for but locking in Hoerner takes one thing off the to-do list.
One player who could be impacted by this deal is Shaw. He played third base last year but the Bregman signing bumped him into a utility role for 2026. With Hoerner’s impending free agency, it was possible to imagine that being a one-year arrangement, as Shaw could then take over at the keystone starting in 2027. That’s no longer possible.
Shaw is going to be playing some outfield this year, so perhaps he could take over a corner next year with the impending departures of Happ and Suzuki, though that depends on him proving viable on the grass. He is still under club control for six seasons, so it’s also possible to imagine him being a future trade chip, if he could find a better path to infield playing time with another club.
Hoerner would have made for a fascinating free agent case. Second basemen normally don’t get massive paychecks in free agency but Hoerner could have marketed himself as a shortstop and perhaps some clubs would have viewed him as one. Teams also normally pay more for power than contact. A speed-and-defense profile can get paid but it’s also risky since those attributes fade over time. It would have been a unique free agency test case but that’s moot now.
The 2026-27 free agent class is particularly light in terms of hitters. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at the group in a post for Front Office subscribers. While recent offseasons have had clear standout bats like Corey Seager, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, the upcoming winter doesn’t quite have that kind of star power. Franco highlighted Bo Bichette, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Daulton Varsho and Hoerner as the top position players in the class.
Hoerner certainly would not have been the best hitter in that bunch but the speed and defense put him up there in terms of overall value. Teams looking for middle infield help next winter will have to cross one name off what was already a somewhat flimsy list.
As of this writing, the numbers on the deal have not been reported. That makes it difficult to assess the long-term impact for the Cubs. What can be said is that they do have a good amount of payroll space available in the future. As mentioned, they have long-term commitments to Swanson, Bregman and Crow-Armstrong but that’s essentially it. Phil Maton and Shelby Miller are the only other players with guaranteed deals for 2027. By 2028, it’s just Bregman, Swanson and Crow-Armstrong.
Photos courtesy of Michael McLoone, David Banks, Imagn Images
Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation was first to report that Hoerner and the Cubs had an agreement in place. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that the deal was for six seasons, while Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the $141MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that there was deferred money in the deal, while Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the contract breakdown. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first to report that the deal includes a full no-trade clause.
Ballparking A Nico Hoerner Extension
In the aftermath of the Alex Bregman signing, one of the immediate questions was whether it changed how the Cubs would proceed with Nico Hoerner. Bregman pushed second-year infielder Matt Shaw into a utility role, but he'd be capable of stepping in at second base. The Giants, Red Sox and Mariners were among the teams seeking a trade match for a player of Hoerner's profile. Would the Cubs flip him before his walk year?
That's almost certainly not happening now. There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility unless they were blown away by the kind of prospect that other teams would not entertain for a rental (e.g. Connelly Early, Bryce Eldridge). Hoerner is a much better player than Shaw in the short term, and the Cubs have as strong a chance as anyone to take the NL Central. Boston traded for Caleb Durbin, while the Giants signed Luis Arraez to play second. Seattle acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals.
As Spring Training gets underway, the focus might now swing to an extension. March is the most common time of year for those conversations. If the Cubs are able to get a long-term deal done with Hoerner this spring, that could make them more comfortable dangling Shaw in deadline talks if any top-of-the-rotation starters come available. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote this week that Hoerner has emerged as a pillar in the clubhouse. The relationship between team and player is strong enough that it'd be a surprise if they didn't have some conversations before Opening Day about what it'd take to keep him off the market.
Let's try to narrow down what that might cost:
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Red Sox “Checked In” On Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw
Alex Bregman‘s decision to sign with the Cubs left the Red Sox with some uncertainty within their infield picture, as both second base and Bregman’s old third base position remain unsettled heading into Spring Training. Top prospect Marcelo Mayer seems to be penciled into one of the two spots, with Mayer likely playing third while the collection of Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard, and/or Kristian Campbell will handle the playing time at the keystone.
A new acquisition could certainly change this picture, and such free agents and trade targets as Isaac Paredes, Brendan Donovan, and Eugenio Suarez remain available. Plenty of other players remain on Boston’s radar, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the Red Sox “are among the many teams that have checked in about” Cubs infielders Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw.
There would be some irony if a trade came together between Bregman’s new and former teams, though there is no sense that a deal is anywhere close between Boston and Chicago. Trade speculation swirled around Hoerner and Shaw even before Bregman arrived in Wrigleyville, with the Yankees, Giants, and Mariners all reportedly showing interest in Hoerner. While the Cubs may be at least open to hearing offers for Hoerner out of due diligence, however, there isn’t much indication that the team has any real interest in moving the two-time Gold Glover.
The Bregman signing solidified Chicago’s starting infield alignment as Bregman at third, Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at shortstop, and Michael Busch at first base. Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki line up as the starting outfield trio, and the open DH spot could be a revolving door for several players to get partial rest days. This in turn would open up playing time for Shaw or another top prospects in Moises Ballesteros and Kevin Alcantara, and give these youngsters some semi-regular at-bats in the majors without the pressure of a true everyday role on a contending team.
Trading Hoerner or Shaw would immediately alter the Cubs’ plans for the coming season at least, and moving Shaw would have a longer-term impact since he only just made his MLB debut in 2025. Hoerner is a free agent next winter, and with Bregman now locked into the hot corner, the thought has been that Shaw could take over from Hoerner as second base. (The Cubs are also considering Shaw as an outfield option to expand his versatility.)
Even with Hoerner nearing the open market, it would take a lot for the Cubs to part ways with a proven veteran who is probably the best defensive second baseman in baseball, not to mention an above-average hitter (106 wRC+) over the last five seasons. It would take even more for Chicago to deal a top prospect like Shaw who comes with so much team control, yet Boston’s pitching depth could at least get the Cubs to take notice. Since Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd will also be free agents next season, bringing aboard a Payton Tolle or a Connelly Early would be an intriguing way for the Cubs to bolster their rotation over the longer term. It is safe to say that Tolle or Early would only be on the table (if at all) for Shaw, as the Sox aren’t likely to move either of those arms for one year of Hoerner.
While Shaw has the prospect pedigree to interest any team, it would be quite a pivot if the Red Sox traded from their high-level pitching depth to acquire a young infielder, given how Boston (in theory) already has plenty of position-player building blocks in place. If Mayer is able to stay healthy and break out as a big leaguer, that provides a ton of stability at either third base, second base, or at shortstop if Mayer is ultimately the heir apparent to Trevor Story. In this sense, bringing in Hoerner as a somewhat overqualified stopgap for the 2026 season might be a better fit to give the Sox more time to see what they have in Meyer or Campbell.
Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been very active on the trade front since taking over Boston’s front office in October 2023, though the Garrett Cooper-for-cash considerations deal in April 2024 remains the only deal swung between Breslow and his former team. For the 2019-23 seasons, Breslow worked in the Cubs front office, and he was promoted to an assistant GM role during the 2020-21 offseason after Jed Hoyer was promoted to president of Chicago’s baseball operations.
Latest On Red Sox’ Infield Pursuits
The Red Sox pivoted quickly after losing out on third baseman Alex Bregman, bringing lefty Ranger Suárez in to join an already deep rotation. They’re still in the market for help on the infield, and comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow at Suárez’s introductory press conference perhaps shed some light on the potential moves they could yet have in store (links (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Rob Bradford of WEEI and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic).
“I don’t think there’s a question anymore that the identity of our team and the strength of our team is going to be our pitching and our ability to prevent runs,” Breslow said .
Breslow, unsurprisingly, wouldn’t comment directly on whether any subsequent additions are on the horizon. The third-year baseball ops leader acknowledged (via Bradford) that “teams call about some of our depth” but added that it’s “hard to tell” whether anything will come together in the near future, just given the sudden nature with which offseason negotiations can either accelerate or crumble at any given point.
Regarding the team’s in-house options, McCaffrey reports that the organization prefers Marcelo Mayer at third base rather than at second base. That’s not necessarily set in stone, and the Sox would presumably be open to Mayer at second base if an unexpected opportunity arose at the hot corner, but it’s nevertheless notable that that’s where they’d lean, all else being equal. Breslow emphasized that the Red Sox “will be very mindful of the defensive skill set” of any addition to the infield. McCaffrey suggests that the ideal target for the Red Sox would be a plus defensive second baseman.
That’s not great news for Eugenio Suárez, who has drawn some level of interest from Boston, Pittsburgh and the incumbent Seattle. (Surely, others are also in the mix to varying extents.) The 34-year-old is fresh off a 49-homer campaign and would absolutely give the Sox the power bat they said they were targeting early in free agency, but Breslow’s comments following the Bregman pivot seem more focused on defense, and Suárez was dinged for negative grades by both Defensive Runs Saved (-6) and Outs Above Average (-3) between the D-backs and Mariners this past season.
On the flip side, it only further strengthens the idea of Boston taking a genuine run at Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner or, to a lesser extent, Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan. Hoerner is the premier second base defender in MLB and is earning $12MM in the final season of his contract. He hit .297/.345/.394 with a microscopic 7.6% strikeout rate and 29 steals this past season. The Cubs have at least heard out interested teams on Hoerner, particularly after signing Bregman, but they’d need immediate MLB-ready help on the pitching side of things to even consider moving him. It’s also feasible that they could listen on young infielder Matt Shaw, but he’d also come with a lofty ask given his six years of remaining club control.
Circling back for a third separate trade with the Cardinals, where Breslow’s predecessor Chaim Bloom is running baseball operations, would be highly unusual — but the fit is sensible. Bloom obviously is quite familiar with many of Boston’s farmhands, and the Cardinals are looking to max out Donovan’s trade value while he still has two seasons of club control left. Donovan is a left-handed hitter and isn’t as strong defensively as Hoerner, making him a lesser fit, but the multiple seasons of control and ability to pretty seamlessly slide to third base or left field — depending on team health/needs — is certainly appealing.
Payroll-wise, there shouldn’t be much off the table for the Sox. RosterResource pegs them at about $197MM in actual cash payroll, which is down from 2025’s mark and not close to the franchise-record $236MM Opening Day mark. Their $265MM luxury tax ledger is far heftier, thanks in large part to backloaded deals for Suárez, Roman Anthony, Brayan Bello, Kristian Campbell and Ceddanne Rafaela. They’re second-time payors who are currently in the second penalty tier, thus subjecting them to a 42% tax on the the next $19MM or so that they spend.
If the Red Sox were to add another $20MM or more to the CBT ledger, that’d bump the tax rate to 75% for subsequent additions and, more notably, drop their top pick in the 2026 draft by ten spots. That’s probably the primary deterrent to spending beyond that point, though with the possible exception of Eugenio Suárez, none of the potential infield targets in question would thrust Boston into the third tier of penalization anyhow.
Readers — Red Sox fans in particular — are encouraged to check out the three linked pieces in full, as each has more extensive quotes from Breslow on the team’s offseason goals and the team’s pursuit of (Ranger) Suárez.
Poll: What’s Next For The Red Sox Infield?
The Red Sox were faced with a tough loss over the weekend when star third baseman Alex Bregman left the team to sign with the Cubs on a five-year, $175MM deal. That contract came in just $10MM ahead of Boston’s own offer in terms of sticker price, but deferred money and the lack of a no-trade clause further depreciated the Red Sox’ offer relative to that of the Cubs. The loss of Bregman left chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to search for a pivot, and he found just that yesterday when he signed southpaw Ranger Suarez to a five-year deal.
The $130MM pact places Suarez alongside Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray as a member of Boston’s front of the rotation headed into the season, but it did little to address the hole that Bregman’s departure creates on the infield. Yesterday’s deal helped to bring down the temperature among fans in Boston and ease the pressure on Breslow to find a star, but it’s not hard to see why an addition could still be attractive given the number of question marks and overall lack of impact all around the roster.
Trevor Story delivered a 20/20 season last year but will be 33 years old this year and just played 100 games in a season for the first time since 2021. Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell entered last season as two of the game’s top prospects but Mayer has a checkered injury history of his own while there’s been some indications the Red Sox could prefer Campbell in the outfield rather than the infield. Neither was an above-average hitter in 2025, either. While both are young enough for a potential big step forward, a team with World Series aspirations like the Red Sox would be taking a big risk if they hang their hopes on young talents figuring it out. Ceddanne Rafaela has experience at second base, but is one of baseball’s top defensive center fielders and might be wasted at the keystone.
It would be easy to say the Red Sox should simply sign one of the top infielders available in free agency, and there’s certainly merit to the argument. The Red Sox are a big market club that just dumped Rafael Devers‘s salary on the Giants over the summer. RosterResource estimates a $266MM payroll for the club in terms of luxury tax dollars headed into 2026, a figure that falls $20MM behind the Yankees and $45MM behind the Blue Jays even when looking only at their rivals in the AL East.
On the other hand, Boston’s payroll is already the highest it’s ever been in terms of luxury tax dollars. Even the actual cash outlay is second only to the 2022 team in the post-Mookie Betts era. Trading away someone like Jordan Hicks or Masataka Yoshida could help but neither has huge trade value right now.
But they don’t have a ton of options left in free agency. Bregman is a Cub and Bo Bichette reportedly has an agreement in place with the Mets. Eugenio Suarez is still out there but it’s unclear how willing the Sox are to spend on him.
Perhaps the trade market is the best bet. the addition of Suarez only further bolstered a rotation that has an excess of quality options. Using a young pitcher like Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, or Kyle Harrison as part of a package to land an impact infielder certainly seems attractive. The team also has an excess of outfield talent at the moment, particularly given the fact that both Yoshida and Triston Casas figure to be battling for playing time at DH. Trading Casas or an outfielder like Jarren Duran could make sense to clean up that logjam somewhat.
The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Ketel Marte off the market but recent reporting has suggested that maybe Boston will try to change that stance. Even if he’s not realistic, there are still plenty of intriguing players who could be available via trade. Boston could make a third trade with the Cardinals and their newly-minted president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom in order to bring super utility man Brendan Donovan into the fold, though he would do little to balance a heavily left-handed lineup. Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner could be another option, though all indications are that Chicago would need to be overwhelmed in order to move their longtime infielder. It could be easier to pry away Matt Shaw, but the youngster isn’t much more well-established than Mayer and Campbell at this point, which could make him an imperfect fit for the team.
Perhaps the most attractive trade candidate out there at the moment would be Astros infielder Isaac Paredes, who was pushed off third base in Houston by the acquisition of Carlos Correa and has no clear path to everyday at-bats with his current team given the presence of Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez at first base and DH respectively. Paredes is no match for Bregman defensively, but Bregman himself showed that a player who benefits from the Crawford Boxes in Houston can enjoy similar success hitting off/over the Green Monster at Fenway Park. As a 124 wRC+ hitter over the past four years, Paredes would add a viable middle-of-the-order bat to the Boston infield and create an intriguing, high-upside corner infield duo with newly-minted first baseman Willson Contreras.
Perfect as that fit might seem on paper, however, the Astros have signaled their reluctance to moving him — despite what looks like an overcrowded infield mix. Regular playing time for Paredes would be just one Spring Training injury away, and GM Dana Brown said publicly in November that he has “no interest” in moving the righty-swinging slugger. With free agent alternatives dwindling on the open market, plenty of suitors for both Donovan and Hoerner that the Red Sox would need to compete with, and hesitance on the part of the Cubs and Astros to part with their players, pulling off a trade could be easier said than done at this stage of the offseason.
That leaves us to circle back to the possibility that the team doesn’t add a regular to the lineup this winter. Mayer and Campbell could enter camp as the favorites for third and second base respectively, though if the team remains committed to trying Campbell in the outfield, David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez could form a platoon at the keystone or Rafaela could shift back to the infield. If the Red Sox were to go this route, they would surely add a veteran infielder like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Yoan Moncada, or Ramon Urias to the lineup in order to provide some competition for the youngsters in Spring Training and overall improve the depth of what would be an injury-plagued infield mix. While it would be a risky move to rely mostly on internal options, it would offer Mayer and Campbell the best opportunity to carve out everyday roles for themselves and might be the only option at the team’s disposal if they aren’t able to pull off some kind of trade in the ten weeks remaining before Opening Day.
How do MLBTR readers think the Red Sox will look to round out their infield? Will they turn to a free agent like Suarez, even if it means finding a way to dump salary elsewhere on the roster? Could they instead try and work out a trade for someone like Paredes, Hoerner, or Donovan? Or will they instead rely primarily on their internal options? Have your say in the poll below:
How will the Red Sox fill out their infield?
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They'll trade for a regular infielder like Paredes or Hoerner 46% (3,006)
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They won't add a regular infielder and stick with internal options and depth signings 35% (2,288)
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They'll sign a regular infielder like Suarez 19% (1,204)
Total votes: 6,498
Cubs Could Use Matt Shaw In Outfield
The Cubs made a big addition to their infield this week by signing Alex Bregman to a five-year deal. That has led to speculation about the club then pivoting to a trade of another infielder, such as Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw. At Bregman’s introductory press conference today, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted that they have received more calls from other clubs about Hoerner and Shaw this week, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. But that doesn’t mean they plan to trade either and Hoyer said Shaw could spend some time in the outfield this year, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN, which would help him get into the lineup more.
The Cubs came into the winter with a projected infield alignment of Shaw at third, Dansby Swanson at short, Hoerner at second and Michael Busch at first. Adding Bregman at third blocks Shaw from a regular role. He has primarily been a third baseman but has dabbled in the middle infield as well. That has contributed somewhat to the Hoerner trade speculation. Since Hoerner is an impending free agent, there’s an argument for flipping him now and putting Shaw at second base.
But Hoerner is far more established as a useful big leaguer than Shaw. The latter just made his debut last year and has 126 big league games under his belt. In that time, he produced a subpar batting line of .226/.295/.394, leading to a 93 wRC+. He was better in the second half, with a .258/.317/.522 line and 130 wRC+, but in a fairly small sample of 205 plate appearances.
Hoerner, on the other hand, has been a regular for years. He played in at least 135 games in each of the past four campaigns. He doesn’t have huge power but is tough to strike out and has consistently been an above-average hitter with that contact approach. He also has excellent defense and speed. The combination has been worth at least 3.9 wins above replacement for four straight years, per FanGraphs.
Subtracting Hoerner and subbing in Shaw would run the risk of noticeably downgrading the team in 2026, a year in which the Cubs clearly want to compete. They just made the postseason in 2025 and have been aggressively adding to the club this winter via their Bregman signing and the Edward Cabrera trade.
If some team gives them a strong offer, they would naturally have to consider the pros and cons. Just in the past week, the Giants, Mariners and Yankees have been connected to Hoerner in rumors. But it also appears the club could be leaning towards using Shaw in a utility capacity this year. If Hoerner is not extended, he would depart after 2026, opening up second base for Shaw to have a more regular role.
Shaw doesn’t have outfield experience as a professional. Since being selected 13th overall in 2023, he has played third base and the two middle infield spots in the minors. In the big leagues last year, he mostly played third with just six innings at the keystone and none at shortstop. He did play a bit of outfield in the early parts of his collegiate career but was mostly kept in the middle infield as time went on.
During his major league time last year, Shaw’s sprint speed was ranked in the 90th percentile of major leaguers. That athleticism gives him a nice head-start in terms of being a viable outfielder but the Cubs will presumably want to get him reps in spring if they plan to follow through on using Shaw as a super utility guy.
Teams love that kind of versatility and there could be clear benefits for the Cubs in terms of playing matchups. Shaw hits from the right side and had noticeable platoon splits in his first big league season. He had a .218/.287/.362 line and 82 wRC+ against righties but a .250/.318/.490 line and 125 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.
The Cubs project to have a few lefty bats in their regular lineup, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, Busch at first base and Moisés Ballesteros likely doing some catching and serving as the designated hitter. They all have fared better against righties in their respective careers, with Crow-Armstrong having particular struggles against southpaws. Ian Happ is also a switch-hitter who has had more success as a lefty bat in his career.
There’s also the fact that Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield with the way the roster is currently constructed. He was largely the designated hitter last year but the departure of Kyle Tucker means he is slated to take more time on the grass. Outs Above Average has ranked Suzuki as six outs below par in his career and Defensive Runs Saved has put him at negative five. Even if he gets a lot of starts, the Cubs could look to replace him defensively late in games. Having another viable outfielder on the roster naturally helps there.
This is all contingent on everyone being healthy, as one injury quickly changes the whole picture, but that also underscores the importance of having some versatility. If Shaw is able to viably play the outfield, then it makes it easier to rotate players around based on health and matchups. Currently, the bench projects to have backup catcher Miguel Amaya and first baseman Tyler Austin alongside Shaw and outfielder Justin Dean. The latter is a strong defender and baserunner but has bigger questions about his bat. He is also still optionable.
Getting into the lineup regularly would also be good for Shaw from a developmental perspective. As mentioned, he only just made his major league debut last year. He was subpar at the plate overall but seemingly got better as the season progressed. Going into a part-time role and missing reps wouldn’t be ideal for the long term, especially if he’s to take over for Hoerner at second base a year from now. Finding a way for him to take 400 to 600 plate appearances, even though he doesn’t have a clear position, would be good for both him and the club.
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
Latest On Mariners’ Trade Targets
This week’s trade sending Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona and the Cubs’ weekend signing of Alex Bregman figure to accelerate the market surrounding various trade and free agent scenarios. One club that could directly be impacted is the Mariners, who’ve spent the bulk of the winter trying to add another infielder after re-signing Josh Naylor on a five-year contract early in the offseason.
Seattle’s interest in Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan is no secret. They were linked to him last offseason and have been reported to be one of his most prominent suitors this winter. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports that in addition to Donovan, the Mariners have had “ongoing” discussions with the Cardinals about left-handed reliever JoJo Romero throughout the winter. Seattle already added one southpaw arm for the bullpen, acquiring Jose A. Ferrer from the Nationals in December, and they have a second outstanding option in Gabe Speier, who enjoyed a breakout year in 2025 (and was just added to the Team USA roster for the upcoming World Baseball Classic).
Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that Donovan is the Mariners’ top target on the trade market but adds that the M’s also have interest in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner. The veteran Hoerner’s name has come up in trade speculation since the Bregman signing, though it seems unlikely a deal will actually come together. Chicago appears willing to listen as a matter of due diligence but would presumably need to be overwhelmed and receive substantial big league talent to trade Hoerner coming off a .297/.345/.394 season that saw him swipe 29 bases, win his second Gold Glove and finish sixth in the National League with 6.2 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference (or 15th with 4.8 fWAR, for those who prefer FanGraphs’ version of the statistic).
[Related: Giants Aggressively Pursuing Second Base Upgrade]
At this point, the fit between Donovan and the Mariners has been explored at length. He’s an affordable ($5.8MM in 2026) high-contact bat with good on-base and defensive skills who can handle either of the two currently unsettled positions in the Seattle infield: second base or third base. The M’s have plenty of highly touted prospects who could emerge at those positions — Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Michael Arroyo among them — but Donovan could also move to an outfield corner if those promising young players force the issue. He’s under control through the 2027 season via arbitration.
Romero was previously linked to the Mariners, but that was before the team acquired Ferrer. It’s notable that Jones implies there have been talks even after that swap. The 29-year-old lefty has been a mainstay in the Cardinals’ bullpen for three-plus seasons now and has steadily shown year-over-year improvement. In 2025, he tossed a career-high 61 innings with a career-best 2.07 earned run average. Romero saved eight games, tallied 24 holds and blew only one opportunity. He fanned a slightly below-average 21.6% of his opponents against a bloated 11.4% walk rate that stands as a major outlier relative to the career 7.7% walk rate he carried into the ’25 season. The lefty also kept a hefty 54.5% of batted balls on the ground.
The Cardinals signed Romero to a $4.26MM contract for the upcoming season — his final year of club control. While last year’s hiccup in terms of command is of at least some concern, the broader track record is quite strong. Since joining the Cardinals, Romero boasts a flat 3.00 ERA (3.61 SIERA) with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 53.7% ground-ball rate, 57 holds and 12 saves. The Orioles and Yankees are among the others to show interest in Romero, though it’s a veritable certainty that the field of interested clubs is much larger than just these three.
Echoing previous reporting from The Athletic’s Katie Woo, Jude suggests that at least a pair of top-100 prospects — switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfielder Lazaro Montes — have been discussed in talks with the Cardinals. The exact permutations of those talks remains murky. There’s no firm indication that St. Louis has sought both in the same package for Donovan, just as there’s no certainty that Seattle has offered both. It’s certainly possible that Romero’s name has come up as part of a package talk involving one or both those ballyhooed young players. Whatever shape those negotiations have taken, they (obviously) have yet to culminate in a deal.
Hoerner, much like Donovan, is a straightforward fit for the Mariners. The previously mentioned Cole Young is currently in line to open the season at second base for the M’s. He’s a former first-round pick and top-50 prospect, but Young hit just .211/.302/.305 in his first 77 MLB games last year. He won’t even turn 23 until late July, so there’s plenty of time for him to develop into a quality regular, but the Mariners are built to win right now. Hoerner, a free agent next winter who’s signed for $12MM in 2026, would give the Mariners an immediate upgrade while affording them the luxury of additional development time for Young. As a bonus, Seattle could extend a qualifying offer to Hoerner next November, netting them a compensatory draft pick in the event that he signs elsewhere.
Again, the Cubs are not outright shopping Hoerner but are willing to hear other clubs out. They’re almost certainly not going to trade him for prospects who are years from MLB readiness; doing so would offset most or even all of the wins gained by bringing Bregman into the fold. It’s hard to come up with a direct exchange that would benefit both parties equally, but the Mariners are nothing if not aggressive and creative on the trade front.
At present, RosterResource projects the Mariners for just under $157MM in 2026 payroll. That’s a bit shy of the franchise-record $158MM Opening Day payroll and a ways south of the roughly $167MM figure at which they ended the 2025 campaign. Given the win-now push in Seattle and the extra revenue from a deep playoff run that saw the Mariners advance to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, it stands to reason that ownership is willing to push payroll beyond those marks.
Poll: Will The Cubs Trade From Their Infield?
The Cubs made a major splash over the weekend by landing star third baseman Alex Bregman on a five-year deal. As a multi-time All-Star who reliably offers Gold Glove defense at third base and posts offense in the 125 wRC+ range, Bregman is sure to provide a major lift to the club headed into 2026. Strong as the signing is for the team, however, it also creates questions about the future of some of their other players. The 2025 Cubs ended the season with regulars all around the infield. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner handled shortstop and second base for the third consecutive season, while Matt Shaw entered 2025 as the team’s top prospect and had taken over third base on a regular basis by the end of the year.
The addition of Bregman leaves the club with four infielders for three positions. The designated hitter spot could help. With Kyle Tucker not expected to re-sign with the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield in 2026. However, Moises Ballesteros is currently the favorite for the DH spot, as he had a strong debut with the bat in 2025 but is considered a work in progress as a catcher.
Having too many guys is a good problem to have but it’s still worth considering whether the Cubs will do something to break up that logjam in the short-term. If they don’t, Shaw is likely to be the odd man out. He has options remaining and could certainly be sent to Triple-A Iowa to open the season, though he could also be carried on the club’s bench in a utility capacity. Hoerner is set to hit free agency following the 2026 season, so perhaps the likeliest option is Shaw taking a depth role for this year before taking over at second base when Hoerner reaches free agency next winter.
That’s a plan that comes with flaws in the short- and long-term, however. For one, Shaw losing the opportunity to get consistent, major league at-bats could have an adverse effect on his development. The 24-year-old turned in a decent rookie season in 2025, slashing .226/.295/.394 (93 wRC+) overall in 126 games. Those overall numbers are hardly exceptional, but he improved as the season went on. After the All-Star break, Shaw slashed a very impressive .258/.317/.522 with a wRC+ of 130 as he crushed ten doubles, three triples, and 11 homers in just 205 trips to the plate.
That considerable power potential Shaw flashed is certainly enticing, but it could be difficult for Shaw to build on that success if faced with either inconsistent playing time in a bench role or minor league competition at Triple-A. As noted by The Athletic’s Keith Law in the aftermath of the Bregman signing, Shaw went through several mechanical changes throughout 2025 and at times resisted help from the Cubs’ coaching staff. The youngster’s numbers took a turn for the worse during the final weeks of September and into the postseason, so it’s possible there’s more tweaks left for him to make as well.
That could make trading either Hoerner or Shaw himself a viable outcome. Hoerner’s name has popped up semi-frequently as a trade candidate over the past two offseasons, and it’s certainly easy to see why rival teams would have interest. The 28-year-old is coming off a career year in 2025. He posted a 109 wRC+ and struck out at a microscopic 7.6% clip in 154 games for Chicago. Over the past four years since becoming an everyday player, Hoerner has slashed .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) with an above-average wRC+ in every season. He’s paired that solid bat with elite defense at second base and also demonstrated the ability to be a above-average defensive shortstop before being bumped to the keystone by the team’s signing of Swanson back in 2023.
Taken together, Hoerner has been worth 19.6 bWAR and 17.5 fWAR over the past four seasons. That consistent four-to-five win production up the middle is certainly attractive, especially with Hoerner set to make an affordable $12MM salary this year.
The Mariners, Giants, and Yankees are among the teams that have been connected to him in trade to this point. Even as teams have come calling after Hoerner, however, the Cubs seem unlikely to deal him. Signing one impact infielder just to trade another would undercut the improvement offered by signing Bregman, and so it’s not a shock that The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma has suggested that the Cubs would have to be “blown away” in order to deal Hoerner.
Perhaps, then, trading Shaw to a team where he could get consistent playing time in a bid to either add more impact to the roster or beef up a flagging farm system could be the best course of action available to the Cubs. Shaw still has six years of team control remaining and will make the league minimum in 2026, meaning that he could be a fit for a number of teams that might want to upgrade their offense on the cheap. The Pirates, Guardians, Royals, Athletics, Angels, and Nationals are all teams that struggled to find production at either second or third base last year and could appreciate Shaw’s years of control and affordable price tag.
Even that comes with risks, however. Shaw’s value is arguably down relative to this time last year, when he was a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. Additionally, Hoerner’s status as a pending free agent would make trading Shaw a big risk if not paired with an extension for Hoerner. The upcoming free agent class is reasonably deep in middle infield talent (Ha-Seong Kim, J.P. Crawford, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) but successfully landing one of those players is no guarantee. The team’s internal options behind Shaw are lackluster, as well. James Triantos was once one of the team’s better prospects but had a disastrous season at Triple-A last year that calls into question his prospect status. Jefferson Rojas had a solid year in 2025 but may not be big league ready by 2027.
How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will handle their infield logjam? Will they work out a trade involving Shaw or Hoerner prior to Opening Day, or will they simply carry both players into the season despite the lack of playing time available? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Cubs Trade An Infielder This Offseason?
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No, they'll keep both players. 56% (3,078)
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Yes, they'll trade Nico Hoerner. 26% (1,443)
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Yes, they'll trade Matt Shaw. 17% (937)
Total votes: 5,458