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Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

Cubs Expecting To Add Starting Center Fielder; Active In Shortstop Market

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It’s shaping up as a busy off-season for the Cubs as they look to push on with their rebuild and improve on their 74-88 record in 2022. According to remarks made by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs are expecting to add a starting center fielder, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the team has been one of the most active early on in the shortstop market.

“We have guys internally that will certainly play out there [in center],” Hoyer said, “but I think the lion’s share might come from external.”

Rafael Ortega and Christopher Morel had the bulk of the playing time in center this past season, but while both are under club control for next season, Hoyer’s comments make it pretty clear that neither are seen as their center fielder moving forward. Ortega hit .241/.331/.358 with seven home runs, while Morel posted a .235/.308/.433 line with 16 home runs in his rookie campaign. Morel bounced around the infield positions as well, but neither posted positive defensive marks for their work in center.

A number of the Cubs top prospects are outfielders, but they’re at varying stages of their development. Their top prospect, according to Fangraphs, Pete Crowe-Armstrong is at High-A while Kevin Alcantara (third) is at Single-A. Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario are their best outfield prospects at Triple-A, but both are injured and uncertain timelines.

“Certainly with [Alexander] Canario’s injury and Brennen [Davis’] setback, it made that just that much more obvious,” Hoyer said.

As far as center field options go in free agency, the options aren’t particularly plentiful. Aaron Judge is the biggest name available, but while he played a significant amount of center this season for the Yankees, it seems unlikely the Cubs would be prepared to make the sort of splash needed to land him. Brandon Nimmo’s blend of elite on-base skills, solid power, and adequate defense would make him a strong candidate, but even though he’ll be much cheaper than Judge, he’ll still likely command a deal north of $100MM and there’ll be plenty of suitors to drive his price up.

Two less high profile names to consider are Kevin Kiermaier and Cody Bellinger, and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports reports that both are n the Cubs’ radar. Kiermaier, 33, is a free agent after the Rays declined his team option for 2023. While his previously elite defensive numbers have dropped off as he’s aged, he’s still a strong defender and would be a cheaper stopgap option until one of the Cubs’ prospects are ready. Bellinger could well become a free agent shortly if the Dodgers opt to non-tender him. He’s dropped off considerably since his 47-homer MVP year in 2019, posting a wRC+ of 47 and 83 the past two seasons, but is still a solid defender in center, and at 27, he’s young enough that a change of scenery might allow him to rediscover some of his offensive talent.

While a big splash in center doesn’t appear likely, it could come at shortstop where the team is active in the market for the top four options available – Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. Wittenmyer’s report adds that the Cubs apparently “love” Correa, something that dates back to the 2012 draft when they were eyeing him up with the sixth pick before he went first overall to the Astros. The 28-year-old had a strong platform year with the Twins, where he signed on a short term deal after no adequate long term deals materialized last winter. He’ll look to cash in this winter though, and it’s certainly possible that his contract lands in the $300MM range over nine or ten years.

The Cubs used Nico Hoerner at shortstop this year to great effect. Hoerner was worth 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 13 Outs Above Average at the position, but he could easily slide over to second base in the event the Cubs do sign one of the aforementioned shortstops, and take over at shortstop again if a new signing begins to decline and needs to switch position.

Ultimately, it’s going to be a busy winter for the Cubs, and it won’t just stop at shortstop and center field. As Wittenmyer adds, the Cubs have explored upgrading at first base and have checked in with Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, while they’re also looking to beef up their rotation and showing interest in Koudai Senga and a reunion with lefty Drew Smyly. The Cubs payroll is currently projected at $126MM, according to RosterResource. That’s well short of the sort of spending they made during their championship years last decade, so as they begin to show progress in their rebuild, it’s not surprising to see them willing to flex their financial muscle again.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Upcoming Offseason

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After six straight winning seasons from 2015 to 2020, which included five postseason berths and a World Series title, the Cubs have entered a rebuild and finished below .500 the past two years. As the fans hope for better days ahead, club chairman Tom Ricketts released a statement as the team switches gears from the season to the offseason.

“We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster,” Ricketts says, as relayed by Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. “As [president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer] has demonstrated, we will be driven by intelligent decision-making as we build a roster that can win games in the postseason – year in and year out.”

The word “active” in that statement is likely attractive to some, though it’s worth pointing that it can mean many different things. The Cubs were certainly active in free agency last year, giving out 12 deals to players who were on the open market. However, Seiya Suzuki was a special case since he was 27 years old at the time and coming over from playing in Japan. Marcus Stroman got a substantial deal, but on a shorter-than-expected three-year term with an opt out after year two. Apart from that, the deals for veterans were all on the modest side, both in terms of dollars and years.

Hoyer talked about spending money “intelligently” last year and Rickets echoed that in his statement. Hoyer, too, doubled down on his own comments from a year ago. “I think last year we talked a lot about intelligent spending, and I think we’ll certainly look to do that again.”

The shape of that spending remains to be seen, but the club should have some money to work with. The club had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM this year, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, a far cry from their previous high of $203MM in 2019. For next year, their commitments are currently around $109MM without factoring in arbitration-eligible players, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Looking at the arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, retaining the entire class would cost the Cubs around $25MM, though not all of those players will be tendered contracts.

Even if the club plans to roll out a similar payroll in 2023 as they did this year, they would have some room to work with, though it’s possible that number could go up. “If we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players, I have no doubt that we’ll have his blessing,” Hoyer said during a recent conference, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

It’s been previously reported that the Cubs have interest in pursuing this winter’s crop of marquee free agent shortstops, though it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in that pursuit. Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are slated for free agency, with Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Each of those four will require a significant investment, of course, with all of them likely to earn nine-figure deals. The Cubs haven’t given out a contract of that size since the Yu Darvish deal back in 2018, when they were much more firmly in win-now mode. If they don’t shop in the expensive aisle, there’s a significant drop to the next-best available shortstops, with Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus highlighting the second tier.

Of course, it’s also possible that the club uses its resources on players already on the roster, locking them up for future seasons via extension. Two players who could be candidates are outfielder Ian Happ and infielder Nico Hoerner. When asked about whether the club has talked to those players about new contracts, Hoyer tells Lee that they have “taken the first steps.”

In the case of Happ, he has just a single year of team control remaining and is projected to earn a salary of about $10.6MM next season. Due to his approaching free agency, he was often mentioned in trade rumors this summer but ended up sticking with the Cubs beyond the deadline. 2022 was his sixth season in the big leagues, with Happ posting above-average offense in each of them. This year, his .271/.342/.440 batting line was 20% above league average, by measure of wRC+. His work in the outfield was also graded positively, leading to him producing 3.5 wins above replacement this year, in the eyes of FanGraphs. He just turned 28 and will therefore be heading into free agency shortly after his 29th birthday, meaning the Cubs would likely have to cut a decent check to get him to forgo that opportunity.

In Hoerner’s case, he’s just 25 and heading into his first arbitration season, projected to get a salary of $2.2MM next year. Given his extra control, it’s more likely that he will be playing for the next competitive Cubs team and could theoretically be a higher priority for the team. He had a very nice all-around season here in 2022, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 20 bases. He hit .281/.327/.410 for a wRC+ of 106 and also provided excellent shortstop defense, leading to a tally of 4.0 fWAR for the year.

Of course, if the Cubs succeed in convincing a free agent shortstop to join the club, they would have to figure out how to get that player into the lineup next to Hoerner. It seems the most likely path would be Hoerner moving over to second base, a position he has played before. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic relays that Hoyer doesn’t see a problem with moving Hoerner to the other side of the bag, especially with the new anti-shift rules that go into place next year. With less shifting, it’s possible teams will look to have an extra level of athleticism at the keystone to provide greater range, something that is less necessary with shifting.

“We have total confidence in Nico’s ability to play shortstop,” Hoyer says. “But, yes, the way the game is trending, athleticism in the middle infield will make a big difference.” It doesn’t seem like Hoerner would put up a fight if the club asked him to make the switch. “He actually gets mad when you talk about him, which is pretty amazing,” Hoyer said. “He wants to talk about the Cubs. He wants to talk about winning. He wants to talk about the culture. So it was pretty easy with him. As long as you’re talking about winning and what can make us great, Nico’s totally on board.”

There are still many directions the offseason can go for Chicago, and there are reasons to be slightly more optimistic than a year ago. Despite another losing season, the club finished strong, going 33-28 from the start of August until the end of the schedule. “We certainly want next season to look a lot more like our second half than our first half,” Hoyer says, per Lee. “And if it does, we do have a chance to be in the race and play meaningful games throughout the entire season. And, hopefully, that means competing in October.” How aggressive they are in bolstering their roster for next year will be determined in the months to come.

Cubs Select Esteban Quiroz; Designate Frank Schwindel, Sean Newcomb

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The Cubs are making a batch of roster moves prior to today’s game, per reporter Mark Gonzales. Right-hander Adbert Alzolay has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list while infielder Esteban Quiroz has had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, outfielder Seiya Suzuki was placed on the paternity list while left-hander Sean Newcomb and first baseman Frank Schwindel were designated for assignment.

Quiroz, 30, has taken an unusual path to the big leagues as he was playing in the Mexican League for years, not signing with an affiliated club until he was nearing his 26th birthday. He’s spent time in the minor league systems of the Red Sox, Padres and Rays, before coming to the Cubs as part of the Harold Ramirez trade in March. He’s only been healthy enough to get into 40 Triple-A games this season, hitting .212/.358/.322 in that time for a wRC+ of 89. However, he’s been much better since returning from the injured list at the start of August, hitting .299/.450/.442 in that time. He’s played second base and third base this year, though has also played some shortstop in previous season and some outfield work back in Mexico.

With the Cubs well out of contention and just over two weeks remaining on this year’s schedule, they can use those games to audition players for future roles on the team. Quiroz will jump into an infield mix that also includes Zach McKinstry, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Alfonso Rivas, David Bote and Nico Hoerner, though Hoerner might not be a factor for a while. He’s missed time recently with an injury and an MRI just revealed a moderate right triceps strain, per Gonzales. “It was a little worse off than we thought,” manager David Ross told Gonzales.

Schwindel, 30, got a nice stretch of play last year after the Cubs traded away many of their regular at the deadline. He made the most of that opportunity, hitting 14 home runs in 64 games, slashing an incredible .326/.371/.591 for a 154 wRC+. He couldn’t keep the fairy tale alive this year, however, as he’s hit just .229/.277/.358 for a wRC+ of 76. With the trade deadline passed, he’ll be placed on waivers in the coming days to see if any other team believes there’s more magic left in Frank the Tank.

Newcomb, 29, once seemed like a rotation stalwart in Atlanta but has fallen on hard times recently. He was bumped to bullpen work and eventually designated for assignment earlier this year, getting traded to the Cubs. The change of scenery hasn’t helped much as Newcomb has a ghastly 8.78 ERA in 27 2/3 innings this year, walking 14.2% of batters faced in the process. This is the second time the Cubs have designated him this year, with the previous instance resulting in Newcomb clearing waivers and accepting an outright assignment. Based on his unfortunate results this year, he’ll likely pass through waivers unclaimed again. With minor league seasons winding down, it’s possible he could accept another outright and make a couple of appearances in the minors, though it’s also possible he just decides to get an early start on free agency.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs

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The Cardinals are hopeful that Steven Matz will return from his stint on the injured list soon, but when he does, it will be as a reliever, per MLB.com’s John Denton (via Twitter). There simply isn’t time remaining in the season to build him back up as a starter. The switch is partly because of Matz, but also due to the expectation that Jack Flaherty will return to the rotation potentially next Wednesday or the following weekend, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Not to mention, deadline acquisitions Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery have excelled in the rotation since their arrival. In the bullpen, Matz can provide manager Oliver Marmol with another weapon from the left side to augment current southpaws Genesis Cabrera and JoJo Romero. Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Deadline acquisition Trevor Rosenthal left his latest appearance in Triple-A with lat soreness, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Picking up Rosenthal was certainly a bit of a lottery ticket for the Brewers, given that Rosenthal hasn’t pitched since 2020. Rosenthal had begun to show shades of his former self, posting a 1.90 ERA over 23 2/3 innings with the Royals and Padres. The hits keep coming for Rosenthal, who suffered a hamstring strain before the lat injury, which all came while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery.
  • The Cubs will be looking to add power this offseason, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. That certainly tracks for a team with a middle infield consisting of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal, both of whom boast contact-first profiles at the dish. Hoerner has stepped up this season, both on the field and from a leadership perspective, making himself a key part of the Cubs’ future. Madrigal has had a less memorable campaign, but he may yet establish himself as the second baseman of the future. The power will have to come from somewhere, however, especially with Willson Contreras slated for free agency. Contreras’ 20 home runs rank second on the team behind Patrick Wisdom’s 22, and the long-time catcher is the team leader in isolated power with a .222 ISO.

Cubs Notes: Hoerner, Payroll, Simmons, Madrigal

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After a 15-run loss at the hands of the Reds yesterday, the Cubs dropped into fourth place in the NL Central at 18-26. Chicago’s early performance hasn’t been too far off preseason expectations. After the Cubs watched much of their previous core depart, the 2022 season looked likely to be a transitional year.

Particularly as playoff contention becomes more far-fetched, it makes sense for the organization to use this year as an opportunity to evaluate potential members of the next competitive Cubs’ team. To that end, manager David Ross indicated this week that Nico Hoerner will be the primary shortstop throughout the season (link via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). That’s in spite of the club’s offseason signing of Andrelton Simmons to a $4MM deal.

“Nico has proven that he can play big-league shortstop pretty consistently already in this season,” Ross said. “Let’s see what happens at the end of the year and assess there. It’s easy to say you can be a big-league shortstop long term, but you also have to do it. You have to prove it. … We’ll move them around a little bit, but Nico will be starting shortstop.”

It’s a sensible course for the organization, as the 25-year-old Hoerner is controllable for another three seasons via arbitration. A former first-round pick, the Stanford product has shown promise on both sides of the ball over the past couple years. Hoerner didn’t hit a single home run in 170 plate appearances last season, but he made contact at a plus rate and reached base at a strong .382 clip. He’s seen a dramatic dip in his walk and on-base numbers early in 2022, but he’s collected a trio of homers — his first since his 2019 rookie season. Hoerner owns a .292/.350/.392 slash line dating back to the start of the 2021 campaign.

Hoerner was a well-regarded prospect, but some evaluators questioned whether he’d eventually need to slide over to second base. He’s split his MLB time nearly evenly between the middle infield spots (with additional cameos at third base and in the outfield), and public defensive metrics have loved his work at both positions. Hoerner has never had a full season’s worth of reps of at shortstop, however, and the likely non-competitive 2022 campaign affords the Cubs an opportunity to give him that challenge.

The team’s evaluation is particularly meaningful when one considers the upcoming free agent class. Chicago elected not to make a major splash at shortstop last time, watching as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, old friend Javier Báez and Trevor Story signed elsewhere. The Cubs, meanwhile, took lower-cost shots on Simmons and Jonathan Villar while turning things over to their internal options.

Next winter’s shortstop class may not be quite as strong, but there’ll be a handful of high-end players yet again. Correa can opt out of his deal with the Twins, while Xander Bogaerts is a near-lock to do the same on his contract with the Red Sox. Trea Turner will hit free agency for the first time, as will Dansby Swanson. The Cubs could be a viable suitor for any of that group, particularly if they’re willing to push payroll upwards to reopen a contention window.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests the organization could do just that, writing that they’re “expected to spend again next winter.” That’s not to say the Cubs sat out this past offseason. They signed a staggering 12 players to big league free agent deals, but only Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman commanded especially notable long-term investments. The bulk of the team’s moves were shorter, lower-risk additions on the margins of the roster.

The team’s long-term spending outlook leaves open the possibility for a more aggressive run at top-of-the-market talents a few months from now. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the Cubs have around $94MM in guaranteed commitments on the books for 2023. Ian Happ will be in line for a fairly significant arbitration salary — assuming he’s not traded this summer — but the team should otherwise have a fairly light class. That’d leave some room for additions even before reaching the approximate $145MM Opening Day player payrolls of the past two seasons, and the organization has spent north of $200MM on their rosters in the past.

Whether the Cubs dive into the top of the shortstop market could be determined by how Hoerner performs over the coming months. In the nearer term, Hoarder’s regular playing time means Simmons is set to take on an unfamiliar utility role. The 32-year-old has never played a big league inning outside of shortstop (aside from yesterday’s mop-up pitching performance), but Ross indicated he’s likely to see time at second base moving forward.

Simmons is generally regarded as the best defensive shortstop of his generation, and there’s little doubt he can handle second base with similar excellence. Yet he’s coming off a dismal offensive season with the Twins, and there probably won’t be room for him in the regular infield when the Cubs are at full strength. Patrick Wisdom is the primary third baseman, while Nick Madrigal is likely to play regularly at the keystone when he returns from the injured list.

Madrigal has been out for a couple weeks with a lower back issue, but the team announced that he’ll report to Triple-A Iowa for a rehab assignment this weekend (h/t to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Acquired from the White Sox in last summer’s Craig Kimbrel swap, Madrigal has hit just .203/.250/.241 through his first 23 games with his new club. Nevertheless, the contact-oriented infielder is controllable through 2026 and a potential core piece, so he’ll surely be in the everyday lineup once healthy.

Cubs Place Yan Gomes On 10-Day IL, Activate Nico Hoerner

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The Cubs announced that catcher Yan Gomes has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain.  Nico Hoerner will be taking Gomes’ spot on the active roster, as Hoerner has been activated from his own IL stint after being sidelined with a sprained right ankle.

Gomes’ absence leaves Chicago thin at catcher, as Willson Contreras has missed the team’s last four games with a strained right hamstring.  The Cubs haven’t yet placed Contreras on the injured list, and he is available off the bench for tonight’s game against the Reds, though one would imagine the Cubs would love to get through the game without having to test Contreras’ health.

P.J. Higgins is in tonight’s starting lineup at catcher, and could end up getting an unexpected amount of playing time if Contreras does eventually need an IL visit, or if Gomes is absent for an extended amount of time.  Gomes also missed time last year with an oblique injury, though it was a relatively mild strain that cost him just shy of three weeks.

After signing a two-year, $13MM free agent deal with the Cubs over the winter, Gomes has hit .247/.267/.384 in his first 75 plate appearances for the Wrigleyville club.  Gomes’ role is somewhere between backup and platoon partner, as Gomes has gotten some extra looks behind the plate while Contreras has been used as a DH on partial rest days.  The plan certainly seems to be working from Contreras’ perspective, as he has posted some strong hitting numbers early in the season.

Hoerner was playing as Chicago’s everyday shortstop due to Andrelton Simmons’ injury absence, but Hoerner had be sidelined after spraining his ankle in a collision with umpire Dan Iassogna.  Fortunately, it was a relatively minor spain, and Hoerner will now return just a few days beyond the 10-day minimum.  The Cubs have a pair of youngsters (Hoerner and Christopher Morel) and two veterans (Simmons, Jonathan Villar) in their middle infield mix, with Nick Madrigal on the injured list recovering from some lower back tightness.

Cubs Place Nico Hoerner On Injured List, Activate Andrelton Simmons

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The Cubs announced to reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that shortstop Nico Hoerner has been placed on the injured list with a right ankle sprain retroactive to May 12. Swapping places with Hoerner is shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who will come off the injured list.

It’s surely a frustrating series of events for Hoerner and Cubs’ fans. Any injury is frustrating, of course, but this one was suffered when Hoerner collided with umpire Dan Iassogna during a recent game. Through 29 games on the season, he’s hitting .271/.293/.396, wRC+ of 94. It’s a rarity for his plate appearances to conclude with the ball in the catcher’s mitt behind him, as Hoerner has an incredibly low walk rate of 2%, as well as a very low 14.1% strikeout rate. No timeline has been given for his recovery process.

As for Simmons, he was signed by the Cubs to a one-year contract that will pay him $4MM plus incentives. However, shoulder soreness has kept him on the IL for the entire season until now, meaning he’s yet to play in a game as a Cub. He has always provided elite defense but has rarely provided much with the bat. Last year with the Twins, his batting line was .223/.283/.274. Although that adds up to a meager 56 wRC+, FanGraphs still believed him to be worth o.8 wins above replacement on account of his glovework.

Quick Hits: MLBPA Facility, Bradley, Rays, Kloffenstein, Jays

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With MLBPA members currently locked out of Spring Training and team facilities, the union has set up a facility in Arizona so that players can attempt to replicate a normal spring training experience. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle takes a look at the situation, which includes some surreal details, such as softball, pickleball players and children also making use of the equipment near the MLB players. “The Players Association has done an incredible job setting this up,” Nico Hoerner says about the setup. “Hopefully, more players start showing up, because it’s about as nice a place as I’ve ever worked out.” As noted by Slusser, Kyle Hendricks, Shane Bieber and Mark Melancon are just some of the other big leaguers present there.

Elsewhere, Alex Wood is working out in Georgia with his fellow Giant and battery mate Joey Bart. With no firm timeline on when Spring Training or the regular season will get started, it makes it difficult for players to decide how to prepare. “I’m slowly ramping up,” Wood said. “I’m going to continue to build volume in hopes that in the next two weeks or so we hopefully get a deal. Once we head to camp, I should be ready to get in games pretty quickly.” Hoerner similarly feels he won’t be far from readiness once the lockout is over. “Give me my 30 at-bats and I’ll be ready to go,” he said.

Elsewhere around the league…

  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times takes a look at the trajectory of right-handed pitching prospect Taj Bradley, who was selected by the Rays in the 5th round of the 2018 draft, when he was still a teenager. “I remember when Taj Bradley showed up on campus when he was 17 years old, and I think he was throwing 86, 87, 88 (mph),” minor-league field coordinator Michael Johns said. “We’re all kind of scratching our heads like, ‘Ooookaaaay.'” But Bradley took a huge step forward in 2021, logging 103 1/3 innings between A-ball and High-A, with an ERA of just 1.83, along with an excellent 31% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Based on that performance, he’s now considered the #58 prospect in the game by Baseball America. Bradley tells Topkin about the steps he’s taken to get where he is today, which includes keeping a journal of his progress. “I just start off with a quick, like, ‘You had a great game. You had a good outing. This is what you did well. You’ve been working on this. You did it. You succeeded,'” Bradley says. “And maybe with, like 0-2 pitches or put-away pitches or my cutter, just the development of it — not a con so much as improvements need to be made.” Bradley is not yet on the Rays’ 40-man roster, meaning he will be able to continue his development in game settings when the minor leagues begin in April, even if the lockout were to linger beyond that time.
  • Like Bradley, Adam Kloffenstein was also selected by an AL East team in the 2018 draft, when the Blue Jays drafted him in the third round. But unlike Bradley, Kloffenstein had a miserable season in 2021, putting up an ERA of 6.22 in 101 1/3 innings at High-A. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com spoke to Kloffenstein about getting over the disappointing results of last year and moving into the future. “I was young when I was drafted. I’ve always been blessed, always been successful in this game — which has made it a lot of fun,” Kloffenstein said. “Last year, I didn’t have as much fun… Obviously, I’m bummed out about the season. I’m 20, 21 years old, and we’re going to look back on this in a couple years and it’s going to be the most important season I ever had.” Prospect evaluators have pointed out that the Blue Jays’ system is lacking in upper level pitching prospects, now that Alek Manoah has graduated to the big league team. If Kloffenstein can right the ship in 2022, he could potentially fill that hole for the organization. Having not yet landed a roster spot, Kloffenstein will be unaffected by the lockout, with Matheson noting that he could start the season in the rotation of the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

Cubs Eschewing Power In New Ways

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Last season, as most of Major League Baseball moved incontrovertibly towards a high velocity, strikeout-forward approach, the Cubs put together a soft-tossing rotation not at all focused on missing bats. Headlined by Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, perhaps the two preeminent control artists in the sport, the Cubs unique approach aimed–quite literally–to induce weak contact rather than avoid it. If success was a long shot, there was at least a strategy, even if their zag to the league’s zig was prompted by need.

Chicago’s pipeline of pitching talent had gone dry. The Jon Lester– Jake Arrieta-Hendricks triumvirate was the engine of the 2015-2017 peak Cubs. When they came to power in 2015, Cubs’ starters finished third overall in the Majors with a 3.36 ERA. They topped the sport by measure of ERA in 2016 with a 2.96 mark. By 2017, they had begun to slip, down to seventh overall with a 4.04 mark.

The magic was gone. As Arrieta’s superhuman years faded into the background, the Cubs let him walk in free agency. They made moves to replace him–trading for Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, and Jose Quintana–some moves came before he left and some came after, but none could stand up to Arrieta in his short, but astronomical peak. Lester began to age, Darvish’s return to frontline status was a slow burn, and the Cubs settled into a groove of good, but unremarkable rotations, finishing 10th overall by ERA in 2018 and 2019.

David Ross’ squad sprinted to a sixth overall finish in 2020 by ERA as Darvish and Hendricks gave them a semblance of the staffs from the peak Cubs. Maybe their success emboldened the front office to give the offensive core one more opportunity to recapture the magic of the 2016 title run. But as we now know, the Cubs were at their best when driven by a top-notch rotation, and in 2021, they were stuck in the slow lane.

Only Hendricks and Davies made all 32 starts, but both posted the worst seasons of their careers as the Cubs lost 91 games. The rotation ranked 26th overall with a 5.27 team ERA, easily the worst performance since the Cubs took off in 2015. A power pitching game isn’t strictly necessary to field a competitive squad, but the Cubs do need something more.

They’ve already made strides, putting together a less gimmicky rotation than last year, scooping Wade Miley off the waiver wire and signing one of the top free agent arms in Marcus Stroman.

On the offensive end, the speculation continues that they might make a bid for Carlos Correa. If not, the Cubs would roll out a starting middle infield of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. While the young pair is promising, one could also argue that they represent the hitter version of last year’s rotation gambit. While the rest of the baseball world hunts dingers, a Hoerner/Madrigal combo boasts turn-of-the-century talent – and not this century.

Hoerner has hit three home runs in 378 career plate appearances, while Madrigal has two over 324 plate appearances. Steamer suggests a whopping 14 combined home runs between the two of them if given regular playing time. Home runs aren’t everything, so we can check their isolated power: Madrigal owns a .089 ISO and Hoerner a .078 ISO. Where .167 ISO is league-average, Nico and Nick are decidedly punch-less. Granted, neither has played even a full season in the Majors, so their numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, but neither has shown much power in the minor leagues either.

Signing of Correa or Trevor Story changes the calculus, but either way, the Cubs expect Hoerner and Madrigal to be regular cogs in the lineup. There’s upside there for Chicago, but whether it’s enough to charge this new era of Cubs baseball remains to be seen. The Cubs have long had a strikeout problem from a team perspective, and getting 500+ at-bats from Hoerner and Madrigal would definitely see more balls put in play. Neither walks a ton, however, so there’s heavy lifting to do in other parts of the lineup, as well as for manager David Ross in putting together a lineup with two contact-first bats who don’t walk or hit for power. (As a counterpoint, Hoerner posted a 10.0 walk rate in 2021, which is better than the league-average rate of 8.7 percent, and a 9.5 percent walk rate the year before.)

Of course, the Cubs don’t like Madrigal and Hoerner because of what they don’t do.

Both are regarded as strong defenders, making them necessary supports for the new-look rotation. Stroman and Miley finished in the top 10 among qualified pitchers for groundball rate, and though Hendricks’ 43.1 percent groundball rate wasn’t as high as many years, he still finished 20th in the Majors by that metric. Infield defense will have to be a plus for the Cubs new rotation to succeed, and their young, contact-oriented duo will be key.

For that to work, however, their infield duo needs to be on the field, and both have struggled in that regard. More than a lack of power, poor health will doom the potential of the Nico and Nick show.

If they do stay healthy, they are the beginning of a movement underway in Chicago. We can even add first baseman Frank Schwindel to the list of Cubs infielders who excel at making contact. Of course, Patrick Wisdom strikes out enough for the whole infield (40.8 percent strikeout rate over 375 plate appearances in 2021). That certainly helped land the Cubs the highest strikeout rate in baseball last season at 26.7 percent. They finished 27th-ranked in 2020.

Strikeouts are a death knell for an offense, killing momentum and vaporizing the potential favor of BABIP good luck. It’s not “the answer,” but it’s certainly a piece of what could be a winning strategy. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. And believe it or not, the Cubs’ brass still wants good things to happen for this ballclub. The peak era Cubs boasted big-time power, so they could weather higher strikeout rates, but that team is gone, and this team is still forming its identity.

The Cubs tried putting together a pitching staff that didn’t strike anybody out, so it’s only natural that when that failed, they should try an offense that puts the ball in play. After all, they know it works because they’ve seen it work. With Nico and Nick leading the way, if nothing else, these new Cubs should put the ball in play, just to give themselves a chance.

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