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Nico Hoerner

Cubs Notes: Infield, Pressly, Little

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The Cubs’ infield alignment figures to be in flux throughout both the Tokyo Series and perhaps even into the early days of the season stateside. As noted by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers earlier this week, second baseman Nico Hoerner will not be participating in the Tokyo Series with the Cubs as he recovers from offseason flexor tendon surgery. Instead, Hoerner will stay behind in Arizona in hopes of being ready for the start of the stateside regular season on March 27, which Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times notes the infielder currently appears to be “on track” for.

That’s fairly good news overall, as Hoerner entered camp with an unknown timeline for return from surgery and it wouldn’t have necessarily been a shock to see him miss the first few weeks of the regular season. In that context, missing just the first two games of the year would be a notable win. What complicates matters further, however, is the questions surrounding top prospect Matt Shaw. The club’s presumptive starting third baseman, Shaw has been slowed by an oblique issue this spring and has yet to get into a game.

Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network relayed comments from manager Craig Counsell earlier this week on Shaw’s status. Counsell noted that the Cubs “aren’t ruling [Shaw] out for anything,” suggesting he could be in play for the Tokyo Series. With that being said, however, Shaw has not yet made his Spring Training debut despite Counsell referring to Shaw as “not too far” from getting into games last week.

While Hoerner is unavailable, utility man Jon Berti figures to slide into the opening at second base. If Shaw is also unavailable for the Tokyo Series, however, things could get a bit more complicated. The final bench spot for the club’s ultimately 26-man roster remains up for grabs, with Rule 5 pick Gage Workman, trade acquisition Vidal Brujan, and non-roster invitee Nicky Lopez all in the conversation to join Berti, Carson Kelly, and Justin Turner on the club’s bench.

Any of them could be in the conversation to cover for Shaw in the event that both Shaw and Hoerner are unavailable for the start of the season, although it seems as though Turner could be an option as well. The 40-year-old hasn’t played third base on a regular basis since 2022, but the veteran told reporters (including those at Marquee Sports Network) that he’s been taking “a lot of” reps at the hot corner this spring to stretch out his arm in order to be ready to fill in at the position if necessary.

Moving on to the bullpen, veteran right-hander Ryan Pressly was acquired from the Astros this winter to help bolster the club’s bullpen mix. Reporting at the time of the trade suggested that Pressly was assured that he would be the club’s top candidate for saves this season prior to waiving his no-trade clause to join the club. That could certainly be the case, and Lee writes that Pressly remains a favorite for the closer job, though it’s worth noting she also acknowledges young right-hander Porter Hodge as another potential favorite for save opportunities. Hodge dazzled in his rookie season last year, posting a sterling 1.88 ERA with a 2.75 FIP in 43 innings of work while picking up nine saves along the way.

Given that framing of Pressly and Hodge as both being potential favorites for the closer job, it’s possible that the club could utilize both hurlers in the ninth inning depending on matchups. For his part, Pressly expressed a preference for pitching in the ninth inning but made clear that he doesn’t see the role as assured.

‘‘I’ve done every role under the sun in the bullpen, but I really felt like I got my stride when I was in that ninth-inning role,’’ Pressly said, as relayed by Lee. ‘‘And I’m happy for the opportunity to be back in it. And now it’s just a matter of seeing what I can do with it.’’

Elsewhere in the bullpen, Lee reports that southpaw Luke Little threw live batting practice for the first time of the spring yesterday. Little has been slowed throughout camp due to what pitching coach Tommy Hottovy described to Lee as “typical offseason issues” that impacted the southpaw’s buildup this winter unrelated to the lat strain that ended his 2024 season. It’s unclear whether Little will be ready for domestic Opening Day or not, though as a reliever with options remaining in a crowded bullpen the southpaw may wind up starting the season at Triple-A Iowa even if he’s healthy.

Nico Hoerner Discusses Surgery Rehab

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The Cubs have attempted to retool their roster this winter in an effort to get back to the playoffs for the first time in a 162-game season since 2018. As they’ve done so, one of the biggest question marks facing the team this winter has been the status of second baseman Nico Hoerner. The Cubs revealed in late October that Hoerner had undergone flexor tendon surgery without providing a timeline for his return. The injury ultimately didn’t stop teams such as the Mariners from pursuing Hoerner on the trade market this winter as the Cubs tried to open up a spot on the infield for top prospect Matt Shaw, but rumors of a deal died down after Chicago shipped third baseman Isaac Paredes to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker trade.

With those trade rumors seemingly a thing of the past, Hoerner figures to be in the Cubs organization on Opening Day 2025. Whether or not he’ll be in the lineup is another matter, however. As noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Hoerner discussed his injury and rehab in detail at the Cubs Convention in Chicago earlier today. Per Montemurro, Hoerner noted that he played through the issue throughout the 2024 campaign and that it had the largest impact on his throwing in the field.

That reality is borne out in his defensive metrics last year. According to Statcast, the fielding that earned Hoerner a Gold Glove award in 2023 faltered somewhat last year. While his +10 Outs Above Average remained in this 95th percentile of all MLB fielders last year, Hoerner’s Fielding Run Value dipped from +11 in 2023 to +8 in 2024. Looking specifically at his arm strength, Hoerner saw his throws lose more than three ticks of velocity year-over-year as he averaged 79.1 mph on his throws in 2023 but just 75.7 mph in 2024.

Given how noticeably the injury was impacting Hoerner’s elite work on the infield, it’s not necessarily surprising that he and the Cubs are taking his rehab process slowly. As relayed by Montemurro, Hoerner has not yet begun a throwing program or hitting since he went under the knife back in October. With the Cubs’ first game of the 2025 season against the Dodgers in Tokyo just two months away, that casts some doubt on the second baseman’s ability to be ready for the start of Chicago’s season. To that end, Montemurro reports that Hoerner not only could not answer whether or not he’d be ready for the Tokyo Series in March, but also couldn’t comment on whether or not he’d be back on the field in time for the Cubs’ home opener on April 4.

That leaves Hoerner missing at least the season’s first couple of weeks on the table, and without a clear timeline for return the possibility of a somewhat longer absence cannot be fully ruled out. With Shaw seemingly set to take over for Paredes at third base, the club’s internal options to fill in for Hoerner currently appear to be Rule 5 draft pick Gage Workman and utility infielder Vidal Brujan. Those options don’t exactly inspire confidence as fill-ins for Hoerner in the event he’s not ready for the start of the season, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Cubs appear to be focused on bolstering their bench mix ahead of Spring Training. Chicago was connected to Yoán Moncada earlier this month, and other players such as Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias could also make sense as depth options who could fill in for Hoerner to start the season and provide insurance in case Shaw struggles in his first taste of big league action.

Giants Declined To Include Bryce Eldridge In Tucker/Crochet Trade Offers

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The Giants were known to have had interest in Kyle Tucker before the Astros traded the outfielder to the Cubs, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly shared some details on that pursuit plus the new information that the Giants were one of the many teams who talked to the White Sox about Garrett Crochet.  San Francisco “made legitimate offers” for both Tucker and Crochet, Baggarly writes, “to the point that [the Giants] were said to feel a bit uncomfortable with the players they were willing to sacrifice.”  However, neither offer included top prospect Bryce Eldridge, and thus no trades materialized since the Astros and Sox each viewed Eldridge’s inclusion as “a prerequisite.”

Eldridge was the 16th overall pick of the 2023 draft, and he has already hit .292/.379/.514 with 29 home runs over 649 plate appearances in the minors even before he turned 20 years old last October.  This hot hitting saw Eldridge moved up the ladder to four different affiliates during the 2024 season, though it is worth noting that his numbers dropped off (in small sample sizes) as he played higher levels of minor league ball.  Eldridge had a more modest .785 OPS in 40 PA with Double-A Richmond and then a .601 OPS in 35 PA with Triple-A Sacramento.

Since he has already reached Triple-A, it isn’t out of the question that Eldridge’s MLB debut could come during the 2025 season, especially given how San Francisco was already aggressive with his early promotions.  LaMonte Wade Jr. is a free agent next winter and has been the subject of trade speculation even this offseason, so the path should soon be clear for Eldridge as the Bay Area’s first baseman of the future.  While the Giants will naturally want to see him post better numbers in the upper minors before calling him to the Show, it is easy to see the potential in the 6’7″, 223-pound first baseman.

Eldridge fits the mold of a classic left-handed slugger, and scouting reports from both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America praise his huge power and his mature approach at the plate.  Pipeline and BA each place Eldridge 35th in the most recent editions of their league-wide top-100 prospects rankings.  He is the only Giants minor leaguer in Baseball America’s rankings, while Pipeline also has James Tibbs III (the 13th overall pick of the 2024 draft) 88th on their list.

In either case, Eldridge is certainly the top prospect in a San Francisco farm system that is considered to be relatively thin, so it isn’t surprising that the Giants aren’t eager to move him in any trades.  Obviously this is a big roadblock in negotiations, since as Baggarly notes, “any team dangling a solid-average everyday player or better is going to start by asking for Eldridge — and not likely to move off that position.”

The White Sox were known to be focusing on young position players in exchange for Crochet, and indeed three of the four prospects Chicago received from the Red Sox in the trade package were position players.  As per Pipeline’s rankings of San Francisco’s farm system, the Giants are slightly deeper in position players than pitchers, though not to the level of Boston’s depth.  Likewise, the Cubs still have a wealth of position players in their minor league system even after moving Cam Smith as part of the Tucker trade.

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey and GM Zack Minasian have yet to complete a trade in their limited time leading the San Francisco front office, though in the view of rival executives, Baggarly hears the Giants have been “hyperactive in attempting to generate trade dialogue.”  Since questions remain about how much ownership is willing to commit to the payroll this season, the trade market could therefore be the Giants’ best method of adding talent to the roster, though that creates another layer of complication if other teams are chiefly focused on Eldridge among the minor league prospects.  As Baggarly frames the situation, some other front offices have been trying to see if they can get Posey or Minasian to bite on an unfavorable trade out of sheer inexperience, which has “led to a few opening offers…that have amounted to non-starters and time wasters.”

In terms of other trade candidates, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle details some of the players the Giants could still look to pry away from rival teams, and reports that the Giants “had some interest” in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner earlier this winter.  The past-tense phrasing, however, indicates that San Francisco moved on after signing Willy Adames as the new everyday shortstop, so Tyler Fitzgerald now looks to move from shortstop to second base.

Cubs Notes: Hoerner, Third Base, Bellinger, Steele

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The Cubs made a massive splash on the trade market yesterday when they landed star outfielder Kyle Tucker is a blockbuster deal with the Astros. The club surrendered a hefty package of All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith, and right-handed youngster Hayden Wesneski in order to make the deal, however, and the loss of Paredes in particular may have changed some of the club’s offseason plans.

Second baseman Nico Hoerner has reportedly been available in trade talks this winter, with the Mariners in particular being said to have interest in the infielder. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, however, it’s possible that the club’s thinking involving Hoerner has changed in the aftermath of yesterday’s deal with the Astros. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs were motivated to trade from their infield mix in order to open up playing time for top prospect Matt Shaw, who hit a sensational .298/.395/.534 in a late-season cup of coffee at the Triple-A level and appears ready to make the jump to the major leagues.

Shaw was drafted as a shortstop, but is a bat-first prospect who has spent time at both second and third base in the minors since being selected with the 13th-overall pick in the 2023 draft. While Shaw has typically been considered a more natural fit at second than third due to questions about his arm strength, the youngster logged 580 1/3 innings at the hot corner in the minors this past year and seems to be a natural choice to replace Paredes in Chicago’s infield mix next year. That, according to Rosenthal, leaves the Cubs “likely” to keep Hoerner in the fold headed into next season.

It’s at least possible another addition changes those plans, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier today that the club is in the market for third base help following yesterday’s deal. It’s unclear if such an addition would be a part-time player who could offer insurance in case Shaw proves to not be quite ready for the majors or if the Cubs are pursuing more of a regular option at the hot corner, but it would seem likely at this point that the Cubs may only seriously entertain a Hoerner trade going forward if they’re able to land a regular third baseman, thereby allowing them to replace Hoerner with Shaw at the keystone.

While Hoerner may be staying put in Chicago, the same cannot be said for Cody Bellinger. The 2019 NL MVP has been known to be on the trade block all winter due to the outfield logjam the Cubs experienced late in the 2024 season, when Bellinger was vying with Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Mike Tauchman, and top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong for regular playing time. That logjam already led the Cubs to non-tender Tauchman, and the introduction of Tucker as the surefire everyday starter in right field only further emphasized that Bellinger figures to play in another uniform next year.

The Yankees appear to be perhaps the most aggressive suitor for Bellinger this winter, though reports have previously indicated that the sides remain apart on how much of Bellinger’s contract the Cubs should retain. Peter Botte of the New York Post provided additional details about the situation yesterday, reporting that the sides are “more than $10MM” apart in their negotiations. That’s a hefty gap the sides will need to bridge in order to come together on a deal, as it represents more than a third of Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary for the 2025 season. Freeing up money in order to improve other areas of the roster seems to be one of the primary motivators for the Cubs in trading Bellinger. According to RosterResource, the club’s luxury tax payroll sits at just under $215MM after the Tucker deal, and clearing as much of Bellinger’s $26.67MM average annual value off the books as possible would greatly increase Chicago’s financial flexibility as they look into improving their rotation by dealing for a starter like Mariners righty Luis Castillo or Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo.

Speaking of the rotation, Patrick Mooney and Tim Britton of The Athletic recently took a look at the possibility of an extension between the Cubs and left-hander Justin Steele. The pair report that Steele and the Cubs have not engaged in extension talks to this point, though they note that the Cubs frequently use the start of Spring Training as an opportunity to explore extensions with players as they’ve done with Hoerner and Happ in the past before ultimately getting deals done closer to Opening Day.

The 29-year-old lefty is certainly an intriguing extension candidate. Steele is under team control for three more seasons and doesn’t sport high-end velocity or massive strikeout rates. With that said, his results have been undeniably excellent in three seasons since he joined the rotation on a full-time basis. In 427 innings of work across 78 starts over the past three years, Steele has posted a 3.10 ERA (134 ERA+) with a nearly matching 3.14 FIP. He generates grounders at a strong 48.5% clip and has limited walks to just a 5.7% rate over the past two seasons after struggling somewhat with his control in 2022. Among starters with at least 300 innings over the past two years, only Gerrit Cole has allowed a lower ERA than Steele’s 3.07, while his 3.11 FIP ranks third behind Sonny Gray and Logan Webb.

Mariners Turned Down Triston Casas Trade Offer From Red Sox

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The Mariners’ pitching depth over the last few seasons has drawn many teams into trade talks and it was almost exactly a year ago that reports surfaced about Boston’s interest in the Seattle rotation.  Nothing materialized between the two teams then, but Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times report that earlier this offseason, the Red Sox offered first baseman Triston Casas for either Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.  However, these “exploratory talks” then “didn’t progress any further,” as the M’s don’t have interest in trading from their rotation unless it is something of a last resort.

Given the contrasting strengths and weaknesses of the Mariners and Red Sox, a pitching-for-hitting swap would seem like an ideal answer to both team’s needs.  While Miller or Woo might not be precisely the kind of ace the Sox are looking for to reinforce their rotation, obviously both are talented young arms with upside and team control — neither Miller or Woo is eligible for arbitration yet, and both are controlled through the 2029 season.  Likewise, Casas is controlled through 2028 and has already shown glimpses of his potential at the MLB level.

Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has consistently turned down past offers for Miller, Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo.  Recent reports suggest that the M’s are at least open to hearing what teams have to say about Castillo (the oldest and highest-paid member of the rotation), but Divish and Jude write that “the Mariners….are not actively shopping Castillo.”

Nothing is stopping Dipoto from hearing what teams might have to say, just in case someone steps forth with an offer too good to refuse.  However, Dipoto told Divish and other reporters today that “our initial reluctance to any type of deeper discussions on trading starting pitching has probably resulted in a lot fewer phone calls than we’ve usually fielded to this point in the offseason.”

The result is perhaps something of a stalemate, as the Mariners are waiting for rival teams to lower their asking prices and other clubs are waiting for the M’s to become more open to the idea of trading from the rotation depth.  Things could evolve once some free agent pitchers come off the board, or perhaps if the Mariners themselves added a pitcher in the form of Roki Sasaki.  While virtually every team in baseball will be making an appeal to the Japanese ace now that his posting window is officially open, Seattle’s track record with both pitching development and star Japanese players would seemingly put the M’s move above most teams in the bidding process.

In the interim, it seems as though the Mariners will continue to focus on trying to trade from its minor league depth, except as Dipoto notes, “it’s the time where prospects aren’t a driver, where just about everybody is focused on major league players.  And I don’t know why that seems different to me now than it usually does, and maybe that too changes in a week or two with the free agent market really opening up.”

Since shortstop J.P. Crawford is the only established member of the Mariners’ infield, landing a promising first base talent like Casas would go a long way towards shoring up the infield and the shaky lineup as a whole.  That said, the Mariners have at least a part-time first base option already in Luke Raley, who looks to be getting a good chunk of playing time against right-handed pitching.

Since the M’s have been linked to such second or third base trade candidates as Nico Hoerner or Alec Bohm, it could be that Seattle might be trying to address one of those positions first before turning to the comparatively easier-to-fill position of first base.  An industry source told Divish and Jude that the Mariners could look into trying to add a third team into talks with the Cubs about Hoerner, perhaps to help cover some of the money owed in the remaining two years of Hoerner’s contract.

From Boston’s perspective, trading Casas wouldn’t necessarily create a vacancy at first base.  Rafael Devers is a subpar defender at third base, and reportedly the Sox have at least considered moving him to first base in order to open up the hot corner either for one of Boston’s up-and-coming infield prospects, or perhaps for a big free agent like Alex Bregman.  This remains a speculative topic for now, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) today that he hasn’t spoken with Devers about a position change, and Cora in fact praised Devers’ third base work in 2024 as “outstanding.”

Then again, there is no shortage of gamesmanship going on during the offseason, as it was just last month that Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow downplayed the idea of trading Casas.  Reports then surfaced this past weekend that the Sox were considering the possibility of dealing Casas for pitching, and this apparent offer for Miller or Woo only reinforces the idea that Casas is far from an untouchable part of the Red Sox roster.  Of course, this also isn’t to say that Casas is going to be moved for anything less than a premium return.

Mariners Notes: Bellinger, Hoerner, Payroll

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The Mariners have been connected to a couple of Cubs recently, with recent rumors that they had discussed both infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times took a look at those talks and some other Mariner topics ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.

Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.

They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.

Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.

However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.

Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.

Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.

Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.

Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.

As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.

He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.

He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.

In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher

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The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

Cubs Expected To Pursue Help Near Top Of Rotation, Back Of Bullpen

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The Cubs are expected to be aggressive in their search for upgrades near the top of the rotation and in their late-inning relief corps, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Chicago was already expected to be in the market for catching upgrades this winter.

Improvements on the pitching staff have long stood as a fairly logical pursuit for the Chicago front office. The lineup was largely set even before Cody Bellinger passed on his opt-out opportunity. The Cubs have Michael Busch at first base, Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at short and Isaac Paredes at the hot corner. The outfield/DH mix contains Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and now Bellinger. Each of Happ, Suzuki and Swanson have no-trade provisions.

Hoerner was speculated by many — MLBTR included — to be a possible trade candidate as a result of this inflexibility on the trade front, but his recent forearm surgery makes a deal quite unlikely. The Cubs aren’t likely to add a long-term replacement.  Mooney suggests that top prospect Matt Shaw or an in-house alternative like James Triantos could bridge that gap. Hoyer told Mooney and others at the ongoing GM Meetings that there’s no timeline for Hoerner’s return just yet, but the team expects a “full recovery.” On paper, there’s a path to moving Bellinger and the remaining two years on his contract, but to this point there’s been no indication the Cubs will consider that this winter.

As such, an upgrade behind the plate seems like the clearest path to bolstering the lineup, while an upgrade on the pitching side of things is the most obvious path to improving the club overall. As it stands, the Cubs could be as much as $50MM shy of their 2024 payroll levels — a number that could push closer to $60MM if they opt to further subtract some arbitration-eligible players via non-tender or trade. Trey Wingenter, Julian Merryweather, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal are among the options who fit that billing after several arb-eligible Cubs were already cut loose yesterday.

That leaves the Cubs with significant financial firepower at their disposal, assuming ownership authorizes a payroll at least in line with last year’s rough $235MM mark (per RosterResource). President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer (or perhaps owner Tom Ricketts) has typically preferred not to invest money in lengthy deals for relievers. The last multi-year deal for any reliever from the Cubs was in 2019 when they signed Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM pact. If that trend holds up, it’ll only point all the more significantly toward a potential splash in the deep end of the free agent pool for starting pitchers.

As it stands, the Cubs have Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and likely Javier Assad locked into starting spots. Candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and top prospect Cade Horton. All have minor league options remaining, and any of the bunch could end up a bullpen option. Brown and particularly Wesneski both got looks in relief last year. Assad has had success as a reliever in 2023.

The top end of the free-agent pool includes Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty. All four were predicted for nine-figure guarantees on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Of the four, both Burnes and Fried received and will reject a qualifying offer. Ricketts confirmed in October that the Cubs narrowly crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2024, meaning they’d need to surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft as well as $1MM of space from their 2025 international bonus pool in order to sign Burnes, Fried, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino or any of the free agents who received a qualifying offer. (It’d have been “only” their second-highest pick and $500K of pool space had they successfully dipped under the line.) The qualifying offer historically hasn’t been a dealbreaker for the Hoyer-led Cubs. They signed Swanson after he rejected the Braves’ QO in the 2022-23 offseason.

And, to be clear, the mere fact that the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever under Hoyer doesn’t mean that they won’t consider doing so this winter. Prior to last offseason, the Cubs had typically spent $5MM or less on free-agent relief pitchers. They nearly doubled that sum when signing Hector Neris. The deal didn’t work out, of course, but Hoyer has already begun to deviate a bit from the bargain-bin approach to building out a bullpen. That’s a far cry from declaring they’re in in top relievers like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez and others, but a step up in their aggression toward pursuing relief help shouldn’t be ruled out.

If the Cubs are indeed intent on sticking to the one-year bucket in free agency, there’s no shortage of older but still high-quality leverage options from which to choose. Each of Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen and old friend David Robertson is a free agent this winter. They’ll all pitch next year at 37 or older, making them likely one-year deal candidates. Any of the bunch could (and likely will) command an eight-figure salary, but the Cubs already came close to that level in signing Neris and could be further emboldened to pursue a solidified ninth-inning option after last year’s bullpen again proved shaky, tying for eighth in the majors with 26 blown saves.

Nico Hoerner Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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The Cubs announced that infielder Nico Hoerner underwent right flexor tendon surgery on October 11, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay the news on X. The club hasn’t yet provided an estimated timeline for his recovery.

The news comes out of nowhere, as there was no prior indication there was anything wrong with Hoerner’s throwing arm. He didn’t go on the injured list at any point in 2024, playing in 151 games. He did miss a bit of time with hamstring tightness in May and he also suffered a hand fracture from a hit-by-pitch in June, but was back in the lineup after a few days off.

His arm strength has tailed off in recent years, however, which was perhaps a warning sign. In the 2020-22 seasons, he averaged between 81 and 83 miles per hour on his throws from second base. That dropped to 78.1 mph last year and 75.1 mph in 2024.

Hoerner is coming off his third straight season of fairly consistent production, with above-average contributions on offense, defense and on the basepaths. At the plate, he doesn’t provide a lot of power but is very tough to strike out and gets on-base enough to get above par overall. In each of the past three seasons, his home run total has finished between seven and ten while his wRC+ has been between 103 and 108.

In 2022, he stole 20 bases in 22 tries. That seems to have prompted a more aggressive approach, which led to a few more steals but also a few more outs. In 2023, he made 50 steal attempts, succeeding 43 times. In 2024, it was 31 steals in 37 tries.

Defensively, he has received strong grades at his primary position of second base, as well as filling in at shortstop. If it weren’t for the presence of Dansby Swanson on the roster, Hoerner likely could have provided strong glovework at short on a regular basis. FanGraphs has considered Hoerner to be worth between 3.9 and 4.6 wins above replacement in each of those three campaigns, reflecting his steady performance.

Prior to this news, there was a speculative case for the Cubs to make Hoerner available in trades. He and the Cubs signed an extension in 2023, a three-year pact that guaranteed him $35MM over the 2024-26 seasons. There are still two years remaining on that deal, with Hoerner to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026.

This winter’s shortstop free agent class is pretty thin. Willy Adames is the top guy and he was to be followed by Ha-Seong Kim, but Kim recently underwent shoulder surgery and it’s unclear if he will be ready for Opening Day 2025. For clubs that miss out on Adames, their best bets will be guys who are likely viewed as a tier below an everyday option, with names like Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Kyle Farmer in this group.

There likely would have been some clubs interested in acquiring Hoerner and moving him back to shortstop. The Cubs could have entertained the idea since they have a strong farm system. The current top 100 list at MLB Pipeline features eight Cubs, including six that have reached the Triple-A level. Two of those are infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos, both of whom are capable of playing second base.

There are only so many ways that the Cubs can open space for those prospects, as Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Swanson all have full no-trade protection. Hoerner doesn’t have such a clause. Making him available in trades could have allowed the Cubs to upgrade their pitching staff in a trade, with Shaw and/or Triantos filling the void.

Perhaps that plan will now be less viable with the news of this surgery, as clubs will naturally have some hesitation about acquiring Hoerner until his prognosis is more clear. If Hoerner ends up staying with the Cubs and missing some of the 2025 season, perhaps guys like Shaw or Triantos will have a path to Opening Day roles. Third baseman Isaac Paredes also has second base experience and could slide over, opening up the hot corner.

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