Eric Lauer lost his arbitration case against the Blue Jays, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith. He will make $4.4MM this season instead of the $5.75MM he was seeking.
Lauer’s case was particularly interesting. He earned $2.425MM from the Brewers in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility. Following a strong season (158 2/3 IP, 3.69 ERA, 4.07 SIERA), he more than doubled his salary, collecting $5.075MM in year two. Then, however, he struggled so badly in an injury-shortened 2023 (46 2/3 IP, 6.56 ERA, 5.31 SIERA) that the Brewers removed him from their roster at the end of the season, and the southpaw elected free agency.
Lauer did not pitch in the majors in 2024; he signed unfruitful minor league contracts with the Pirates and Astros before landing a deal with the KBO’s Kia Tigers. His late-season work in Korea earned him a minor league deal from the Blue Jays last offseason. On April 30, 2025, Lauer returned to the majors. Over the rest of the season, he was a key role-player for the eventual AL champions, pitching to a 3.18 ERA and a 3.88 SIERA in 104 2/3 innings as a hybrid starter/reliever. Unlike many players who return from pitching overseas, Lauer was still eligible for arbitration after 2025, and given his success, it was not surprising when Toronto tendered him a contract.
According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the rules of the CBA stipulate that, “In tendering a contract to a player (or renewing the contract of a player not yet arbitration-eligible), a club’s salary offer may not be less than 80% of the player’s salary and performance bonuses the previous year or less than 70% of his salary and performance bonuses from two years earlier. The 80% requirement does not apply if a player won an arbitration award the previous year increasing his salary 50% or more.”
Technically, Lauer’s salary in 2025 was only $2.2MM (which was prorated to just under $1.8MM). However, his salary in his previous year of arbitration eligibility was $5.075MM. Of course, that $5.075MM figure represented more than a 50% increase over his year-one arbitration salary. So, either way, there wasn’t anything wrong with the Blue Jays’ $4.4 million offer – they won the case after all.
However, Lauer was presumably banking on the fact that it’s extremely rare for a player’s salary in his third year of arbitration eligibility to be lower than his salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility. What’s more, as Nicholson-Smith and The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon both recently pointed out, players who exit the arbitration system still typically earn raises when they return. Precedents are important in arbitration hearings, and, evidently, Lauer and his agents thought history would be on their side. In the end, the panel disagreed. The Blue Jays, who filed at $4.4MM – the exact figure predicted by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s model – won the case. This will save the team $1.35MM in payroll and another $1.215MM in luxury tax penalties.
Lauer is expected to fill a swingman role for Toronto once again in 2026. While he currently projects to open the season in the bullpen, Nicholson-Smith notes that he will be stretched out as a starter during spring training.
This process is terrible, just meet in the middle.
Some orgs are file-and-trial. Plenty of time to negotiate a middle figure before officially initiating the arb process. It’s business and it’s what the players agreed to during the last CBA talks.
Because the process is all or nothing, that actually encourages the two sides to do just that and make pre-arb deals. It’s an excellent system for resolving labor disputes not a terrible one.
The system, like most of the CBA, favors the few star players but doesn’t do too many favors for the rest of the league.
Just meet in the middle? Okay, knowing that the team will always file for the minimum allowed and the player will always file for a googolplex dollars. Meet in the middle at half a googolplex.
I was hoping the Jays would pay him for this year and tack on another year.
He had a good 25 season, maybe the number of innings hurt him. I agree with meeting in the middle, yet it could have been offered and he denied it. Who knows
The tough part about number of innings is that it was out of his control. The team moved him to the pen despite him performing well out of the rotation. Then he was rarely used. He only appeared seven times all of September. And they were mostly 4 or 5 out appearances rather than the type of multi inning appearances that require four days of rest.
On a second look Bubic makes more than him, and he has thrown 300 less innings.
Bubic is much better too.
I remember way back when he was the opening day starter for the Padres.
My kid got a ball signed by him in ST that year. I thought he might be on his way to a TOR career. Even though he didn’t, he still is making a solid career.
Lauer pitched great for 4.2 shutout innings in that epic Game 3 of last year’s World Series.
“Precedents are important in arbitration hearings, and, evidently, Lauer and his agents thought history would be on their side.”
A comma before “evidently” is unnecessary and wrong. The sentence reads better as:
“Precedents are important in arbitration hearings, and evidently, Lauer and his agents thought history would be on their side.”