Eric Lauer Loses Arbitration Case Against Blue Jays

Eric Lauer lost his arbitration case against the Blue Jays, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith. He will make $4.4MM this season instead of the $5.75MM he was seeking.

Lauer’s case was particularly interesting. He earned $2.425MM from the Brewers in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility. Following a strong season (158 2/3 IP, 3.69 ERA, 4.07 SIERA), he more than doubled his salary, collecting $5.075MM in year two. Then, however, he struggled so badly in an injury-shortened 2023 (46 2/3 IP, 6.56 ERA, 5.31 SIERA) that the Brewers removed him from their roster at the end of the season, and the southpaw elected free agency.

Lauer did not pitch in the majors in 2024; he signed unfruitful minor league contracts with the Pirates and Astros before landing a deal with the KBO’s Kia Tigers. His late-season work in Korea earned him a minor league deal from the Blue Jays last offseason. On April 30, 2025, Lauer returned to the majors. Over the rest of the season, he was a key role-player for the eventual AL champions, pitching to a 3.18 ERA and a 3.88 SIERA in 104 2/3 innings as a hybrid starter/reliever. Unlike many players who return from pitching overseas, Lauer was still eligible for arbitration after 2025, and given his success, it was not surprising when Toronto tendered him a contract.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the rules of the CBA stipulate that, “In tendering a contract to a player (or renewing the contract of a player not yet arbitration-eligible), a club’s salary offer may not be less than 80% of the player’s salary and performance bonuses the previous year or less than 70% of his salary and performance bonuses from two years earlier. The 80% requirement does not apply if a player won an arbitration award the previous year increasing his salary 50% or more.”

Technically, Lauer’s salary in 2025 was only $2.2MM (which was prorated to just under $1.8MM). However, his salary in his previous year of arbitration eligibility was $5.075MM. Of course, that $5.075MM figure represented more than a 50% increase over his year-one arbitration salary. So, either way, there wasn’t anything wrong with the Blue Jays’ $4.4 million offer – they won the case after all.

However, Lauer was presumably banking on the fact that it’s extremely rare for a player’s salary in his third year of arbitration eligibility to be lower than his salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility. What’s more, as Nicholson-Smith and The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon both recently pointed out, players who exit the arbitration system still typically earn raises when they return. Precedents are important in arbitration hearings, and, evidently, Lauer and his agents thought history would be on their side. In the end, the panel disagreed. The Blue Jays, who filed at $4.4MM – the exact figure predicted by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s model – won the case. This will save the team $1.35MM in payroll and another $1.215MM in luxury tax penalties.

Lauer is expected to fill a swingman role for Toronto once again in 2026. While he currently projects to open the season in the bullpen, Nicholson-Smith notes that he will be stretched out as a starter during spring training.