MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Braves, Castellanos, Brewers, Hot Takes

This week’s mailbag gets into the Orioles’ and Braves’ rotations, whether Nick Castellanos could help the Tigers, and what the Brewers will do at third base after trading Caleb Durbin.  It concludes with a bunch of my half-baked “hot takes” for your amusement.  I’d love to see yours in the comments.

Michael asks:

Why couldn’t the Orioles have signed Ranger Suarez? Seems like they whiffed on this deal.

I don’t know that it needed to be Suarez specifically, but Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias has thus far failed to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher.  Shane Baz is probably good for 2 WAR and still has breakout potential.  But (likely) better pitchers such as Suarez, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Michael King, MacKenzie Gore, and Freddy Peralta were available this winter and the Orioles didn’t add any of them.

Elias had this to say in a recent press conference: “I think we’ve put together a really strong rotation as it stands right now. We’ll continue to look externally, if we can bolster this group in one way, shape or form. … But I think that this rotation looks good.”

Elias could still boost the team by one or even two wins by signing Zac Gallen, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did name the Orioles as one of four suitors.  Still, any of the above would’ve been better.  Elias noted that “late signings can be tricky,” implying that his interest in adding a notable free agent starter might diminish by (in my estimation) the end of the month.

FanGraphs projects the Orioles’ rotation to be the 17th-best in MLB.  That includes 3.1 WAR from Kyle Bradish in 148 innings.  I think Bradish is good for more than that, though I’m also not confident Zach Eflin can reach his 146 inning projection, so maybe it’s a wash.  Eflin underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery last August and aims to be ready for Opening Day.

FanGraphs’ projections currently calls for five different Orioles pitchers to reach 146 innings.  Is there any chance of that happening?

[restrict]

Here’s the number of 140-inning starters per team in 2025:

• Angels: 3
• Astros: 2
• Athletics: 2
• Blue Jays: 3
• Braves: 1
• Brewers: 1
• Cardinals: 4
• Cubs: 3
• Diamondbacks: 3
• Dodgers: 1
• Giants: 3
• Guardians: 3
• Mariners: 2
• Marlins: 1
• Mets: 2
• Nationals: 3
• Orioles: 2
• Padres: 2
• Phillies: 4
• Pirates: 2
• Rangers: 3
• Rays: 3
• Red Sox: 3
• Reds: 4
• Rockies: 1
• Royals: 3
• Tigers: 3
• Twins: 2
• White Sox: 1
• Yankees: 3

This doesn’t account for quality or trades.  Plus, as the Dodgers demonstrated, as long as your big dogs are healthy in the playoffs, you can still win it all.  Still, only three teams managed even four starters with 140+ innings.  It’s likely the Orioles’ front five – Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin – falls well short of their projected 772 total innings.  That’s why adding even a 2.5 WAR-ish starter like Gallen would still help – they don’t have enough rotation depth.

Daryn asks:

I found this very interesting. I think my math is right, but there were only 2 teams that had 3 starting pitchers with over 160 innings – Cleveland and Cincinnati. Do you think by having 3 starting pitchers with over 160 innings make you a sure thing for the playoffs? I do not think your teams has to have a #1 ace but you need 2-3 pitchers with 30 starts and over 160 innings.

This question relates well to my previous answer!  Three teams had three pitchers reach 160 innings as a starter: the Angels, Blue Jays, and Yankees.  The Dodgers only had one in Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  The Guardians and Reds were just shy of three, with Logan Allen and Nick Lodolo almost getting to 160.

Angels starting pitchers ranked 28th in baseball in ERA last year despite Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano, and Kyle Hendricks all topping 160 innings.  Mediocre pitchers do still reach that inning threshold.  Of the 50 who did so in 2025, 12 were worth less than 2 WAR.  The Nationals’ Jake Irvin was below replacement level, and the Cardinals’ Andre Pallante was close.

You need enough starting pitching to get through 162 games, but to succeed in the playoffs teams generally need two or three very good starting pitchers and/or perhaps three or four very good relievers.  The Dodgers got only 198 2/3 regular season starting innings from Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Shohei Ohtani, but that trio pitched 45.9% of their postseason innings.  Their big dogs were healthy at the right time.

Kevin asks:

Do the Braves final sign Chris Bassitt and then trade someone like Elder and Bummer (salary relief) or do they go with what they have and hope no rash of injuries like last year?

Kevin posed this question before it was revealed Spencer Schwellenbach will start the season on the 60-day IL due to elbow inflammation.

Elder is a 5.00 ERA-ish pitcher, but he was also the only Braves starter to reach 130 innings last year.  He’s making the league minimum, so there’s no salary relief in trading him.  The Braves just lost one win (best case scenario) with the Schwellenbach injury, and they’re counting on 140-160 innings apiece from Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, and Reynaldo Lopez.  They badly need to add one starting pitcher, and should be looking to add two.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams suggested yesterday the Braves might want to stop at a $284MM CBT payroll; otherwise their #9 pick in the 2026 draft will be moved back 10 spots.  The club’s current CBT payroll appears to be just shy of $254MM, so they do have wiggle room to add starting pitching.  A bunch of fifth starter types signed this week, plus Justin Verlander, but Bassitt, Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, and Zack Littell remain on the market.

The Braves gave Bummer a new contract in November 2024, reducing his CBT hit compared to his club option and transferring money to 2026.  As a result, he’s owed $9.5MM this year.  In 2025, the 32-year-old lefty reliever showed career-worst velocity, lost the faith of manager Brian Snitker, and saw his season end on August 23rd due to shoulder inflammation.  Perhaps with a clean bill of health a lefty-needy team would pick up a million or two of Bummer’s contract.

Lloyd asks:

Hello. Now that JV is back in the D can the Tigers spare enough payroll to acquire Nick Castellanos? They need a right-handed bat, his numbers were good last year, and paired with Carpenter they’d have RF/DH well-covered. Does this make sense? If the Phillies will drop him for a PTBNL, ’cash considerations,’ etc., would Castellanos be an upgrade on whomever he’d displace (e.g., Jones or Perez)?

Castellanos did well at Comerica when he played there; does he have enough in the tank to justify maybe $2,000,00 and a roster spot for one big push for a championship?

Payroll-wise, just about any team can spare $2MM.  I’m not sure anyone will offer the Phillies even that level of relief from Castellanos’ $20MM salary, given his recent performance and clubhouse strife plus the possibility he’s simply released.

I’ll have to disagree on Castellanos’ numbers being good last year; he posted a 90 wRC+ and was actually a bit worse than that against lefties.  From 2023-24, though, Castellanos posted a healthy 136 mark against southpaws, so it’s possible that’s still in there with a change of scenery.  Castellanos turns 34 in March, so not necessarily.

Castellanos has played at Comerica Park more than anywhere else, and he did hit there.  He called the ballpark “a joke” in 2019 shortly before his trade to the Cubs, though the Tigers have since changed the dimensions of the outfield.

2025 was a tumultuous season for Castellanos, who said afterward his knee had been bothering him for months.  When manager Rob Thomson removed Castellanos for defensive purposes in a June game – ending a consecutive game streak of 236 – Castellanos’ response “left players and coaches alike disgusted,” according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic.  Dave Dombrowski is looking to move him this week.

If I was the Tigers, I wouldn’t bother with the drama for a short-side platoon DH who should really put his glove into storage.  It’s true that Carpenter, penciled in at DH, does not hit lefties.  It’s a bit hard to say whether switch-hitting prospective starting right fielder Wenceel Perez will hit southpaws; he did in 108 plate appearances last year.  That was not the case for Perez in the minors or Majors in 2023-24.

Per RosterResource, the Tigers’ current bench features four right-handed hitters, one of whom is backup catcher Jake Rogers.  The other three – Javy Baez, Jahmai Jones, and Matt Vierling, can all play some outfield.  Jones, in particular, has been a lefty-masher in the Majors and Triple-A and fits better than Castellanos would.

Ed asks:

What are the Brewers thinking [with the Caleb Durbin trade]? They really have no third baseman. They traded away a good cheap third baseman. They didn’t get any player of much value for Durbin. Where do they go now? Paredes or just a fill in? Brewers fans must be going crazy right now.

In trading Durbin and Isaac Collins this offseason, the Brewers have dealt their starting third baseman and a player who took 57% of their innings in left field.  Durbin and Collins finished third and fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.  Durbin has six years of control remaining; Collins has five.  Each player was worth 2.6 FanGraphs WAR.

The Brewers had clearly soured on Collins by the playoffs; he would’ve had a bench role for the ’26 club.  The Durbin trade indicates, if nothing else, that the Brewers really like Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan.  It also suggests they’re bearish on Durbin, whose projection per 650 PA games ranges anywhere from 1.5 to 3.1 at FanGraphs.

In the short-term, Joey Ortiz could play third for the Brewers, with Brice Turang possibly moving to shortstop.  So, the Brewers could potentially add at third or second base.  A brief look at a few the team’s top prospects, according to Baseball America:

• Jesus Made, 19 in May, rates as the fourth-best prospect in the game.  He’s already reached Double-A, so we could see him in the Majors in 2027 if all goes well.  Made may stick at shortstop but could move to third or second base.  Made alone suggests the Brewers don’t need a long-term replacement for Durbin.
• Luis Peña, 19, is BA’s #47 prospect.  He’s a bat-first player who reached High-A in August.  We could see Peña in 2027 as well.  BA says he profiles at second, third, or outfield.
• Cooper Pratt, 21, landed at #50 on BA’s list.  He held his own offensively in an aggressive Double-A assignment last year and according to BA has the defensive edge over Made as the possible long-term shortstop.
• Jett Williams, 22, rates as BA’s #71 prospect.  He came to the Brewers from the Mets in the January Freddy Peralta deal.  Williams mashed at Double-A last year but wasn’t able to crack Triple-A pitching in a brief 34-game sample.  He seems likely to land in the middle infield, though center field is also a possibility.
• Brewers president of baseball operations and GM Matt Arnold spoke about how David Hamilton, who also came back in the Durbin deal, “fits our brand.”  Hamilton hasn’t hit much at any level, but the Brewers drafted him in 2019 and still like his speed and defense.

I can see the Brewers making it work at second base, shortstop, and third base in 2026 with some combination of Turang, Ortiz, Hamilton, and perhaps Williams, even if that group admittedly won’t provide much offense.  By 2027, their four top-75 prospects will hopefully be emerging.

Paredes has two years of control and probably requires a bigger commitment than the Brewers need.  I have doubts about Paredes’ ability to play third base in 2026 (more on that later), and he doesn’t complement Andrew Vaughn at first since both bat right-handed.  The Brewers tend to find unexpected solutions, but some possible infield options could include Alec Bohm, Ben Williamson, Brett Baty, Luis Rengifo, Nacho Alvarez, Casey Schmitt, Tyler Fitzgerald, Ryan Bliss, Shay Whitcomb, Trey Sweeney, Darell Hernaiz, Jose Tena, Coby Mayo, Bryan Ramos, Kyren Paris, and Will Wagner.

Some of those players landed in new organizations this winter; others are former well-regarded prospects.  Rengifo could easily be signed as a free agent, though he doesn’t fit the Brewers’ speed-and-defense vibe.  Bohm is probably unlikely given that he’s making $10.2MM and the Phillies didn’t find an upgrade over him this winter.

Mark asks:

Houston is looking for LHH OF, Pirates are in search of an upgrade at 3B. Would a trade of high potential Oneil Cruz for Isaac Paredes work?

Cruz has three years of control left, while Paredes has two.  That aside, I’m not sure Paredes would actually be an offensive upgrade over Cruz for the Pirates.  2025 was certainly a down year for the 27-year-old Cruz, especially against lefties.  But I can’t see the Pirates selling low on him, especially with off-the-charts Statcast numbers that suggest he’ll bounce back to a 110 wRC+ in 2026.  Lastly, trading Cruz would probably relegate Jake Mangum to the starting center fielder role in Pittsburgh, negating whatever offensive gains some might expect from adding Paredes.

Paredes, 27 next week, has a strong 124 wRC+ in over 2,000 plate appearances dating back to 2022.  Something like that would probably make him the best hitter on the Pirates.  However, Paredes has never had an expected slugging percentage above .380, per Statcast, as he’s lacking in exit velocity and barrels.  While he benefitted from Daikin Park last year, Paredes had success on the road too.  He presents an interesting case of track record vs. underlying metrics.  When Cody Bellinger hit the 2023-24 free agent market as such a case, his contract demands were not met.

Paredes tore his hamstring on July 19th, chose rest and rehab over surgery, and returned two months later as a DH for the Astros.  In mid-November, four months after the injury, Astros GM Dana Brown said Paredes was about 65% recovered from the injury and would “potentially” be ready by Opening Day.  He played nine games in winter ball, but I can’t easily tell if any of those came at the hot corner.

It’s been a while since Paredes shouldered a full third base load.  His defense seems subpar in both range and arm strength, so if he’s hobbled to start the season that could be a problem.  I don’t know for sure, but it’s possible teams share my reasons for hesitation with Paredes, and that’s why he’s still an Astro despite their logjam.

BD asks:

Is Steven Kwan a Guardian in October? If not, where do you expect he’ll be playing and what return will the Guardians receive?

My best guess is that Kwan will be traded at the deadline.  I could see the Astros, Angels, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Reds, Phillies, or Giants landing him.  It’s pretty hard to predict the return, but maybe two 50-grade prospects would suffice?

Joe asks:

Come on Tim, give us some hot take predictions for the upcoming season.

I’m much too boring to give hot takes!  Therefore, these probably don’t qualify, but here’s an attempt:

• The Dodgers will win fewer than 97 games and won’t reach the World Series.
• The Twins or Pirates will make the playoffs.
• None of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Cal Raleigh will win an MVP award.
• Tarik Skubal will not win the AL Cy Young award.
• Bo Bichette will not opt out of his Mets contract after the season.
• In the NL, two of Emmet Sheehan, Eury Perez, and Nolan McLean will get Cy Young votes.
• We’re not talking enough about Chase Burns and Zebby Matthews.
• In the AL, two of Kyle Bradish, Cole Ragans, and Cam Schlittler will get Cy votes.  I know Ragans isn’t too bold here but I couldn’t find a good third guy.
• Nick Kurtz will hit 50+ home runs.
• Shane Baz will be pretty good.
• Wyatt Langford and Kyle Stowers will take further steps forward.
• Zach Neto will get MVP votes.
• Yankees fans will start to turn on Cody Bellinger by the end of the year, but Anthony Volpe will start to grow on them.
• At least one-third of these players will be busts this year: Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, Bo Bichette, and Framber Valdez.
• 17 more players will suffer hamate fractures by the end of the week.

Please don’t take these too seriously; I was just trying to come up with some interesting stuff that I find reasonable.