This week's mailbag gets into the Orioles' and Braves' rotations, whether Nick Castellanos could help the Tigers, and what the Brewers will do at third base after trading Caleb Durbin. It concludes with a bunch of my half-baked "hot takes" for your amusement. I'd love to see yours in the comments.
Michael asks:
Why couldn't the Orioles have signed Ranger Suarez? Seems like they whiffed on this deal.
I don't know that it needed to be Suarez specifically, but Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias has thus far failed to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher. Shane Baz is probably good for 2 WAR and still has breakout potential. But (likely) better pitchers such as Suarez, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Michael King, MacKenzie Gore, and Freddy Peralta were available this winter and the Orioles didn't add any of them.
Elias had this to say in a recent press conference: "I think we’ve put together a really strong rotation as it stands right now. We’ll continue to look externally, if we can bolster this group in one way, shape or form. … But I think that this rotation looks good."
Elias could still boost the team by one or even two wins by signing Zac Gallen, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did name the Orioles as one of four suitors. Still, any of the above would've been better. Elias noted that "late signings can be tricky," implying that his interest in adding a notable free agent starter might diminish by (in my estimation) the end of the month.
FanGraphs projects the Orioles' rotation to be the 17th-best in MLB. That includes 3.1 WAR from Kyle Bradish in 148 innings. I think Bradish is good for more than that, though I'm also not confident Zach Eflin can reach his 146 inning projection, so maybe it's a wash. Eflin underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery last August and aims to be ready for Opening Day.
FanGraphs' projections currently calls for five different Orioles pitchers to reach 146 innings. Is there any chance of that happening?
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“”The Twins or Pirates make the playoffs.” Pirates maybe. Twins? After the fire sale they had last season and their failure to add significant pieces in the offseason? I’ll take the under on that bet.
It could happen. The odds aren’t strong, but it’s possible.
Did you see the Zebby Mathews line up there? They’ve got a lot of youngsters who will get chances in 2026. Some will work out.
They had several guys under-perform last year, and it’s not much of a stretch to expect a Royce Lewis to come back to average.
They had several injuries to important guys who hadn’t spent a lot of time on the Dl in the past, so expecting Ober and Lopez to come back and take the ball is not hard to picture.
They cleared out a lot of dead wood that played a lot of below average ball last year, like Julien and Paddack and France. And the kids are a year older so it’s not unreasonable to expect more from some of them.
The Pirates are more likely, but the Twins have a huge amount of variability in them this year.
32% playoff chance at FG despite low expectations at 1B, SS, DH. But they do need healthy and effective Lewis/Buxton. Starting pitching projects 11th in MLB, better than Yankees, Mets, Cubs, various good teams.
The Pirates won 71 games last year. They’re not making the playoffs in 2026.
I said what I said!
Twins making the playoffs is not the only far fetched hot take, but then just reading them as a group makes me laugh simply because most are just wrong, and I’m certain they were made in jest. I did say most, because I can totally see Neto getting MVP votes, Tarik Skubal not getting the Cy Young, and I’d love to see Tucker be a bust this season so I can rub it in my cousins’ faces (and other Dodger fan friends).
They were not made in jest, but some lack evidence or a statistical case. That’s the nature of a hot take for me.
I think just about anyone would bet against the Twins making the playoffs at even money, but I threw that in there because I think they are significantly more likely to get in than people think.
For the most part it was a bullpen fire sale. Their current bullpen looks bad but relievers are quite hard to predict.
Tim – The thing is, if the Twins aren’t firmly in a playoff position at the trade deadline they will be inclined to trade off more parts such as Joe Ryan. So they will really need to have a strong first half if they want to make the playoffs.
Lol re: the hamate bones…
The Orioles have essentially the same rotation as last season (75 wins). They traded Rodriguez and added Baz. Not the expected change from a team that was so underwhelming. So much for the new owner opening up that fat wallet.
I highly doubt Povich, McDermott, Young, etc. will make as many starts as they did last year, which is already an improvement. Plus no more Sugano or Morton. Eflin should almost certainly be better. More Bradish!
Jim – On the plus side, they will likely have nearly twice as many starts from Rogers. That should be at least another 8 wins right there.
Assuming no injuries or degradation of performance, which is common with pitchers. Two, I believe, is the injury count for the projected starting lineup as of today.
It’s not hard to improve upon Grayson Rodriguez, since he didn’t pitch. So the bar is low for Baz there.
Going from eight Bradish starts to hopefully 30 would be huge. Probably a top 15 pitcher in the game on a per-inning basis, but also more likely to reach 180 than several of those ahead of him such as Sale, Burns, McClanahan. Will be two years removed from TJS in June. If you think Bradish has average injury risk now then he has a top 10 case.
Orioles are still only interested in hitting homers. I don’t get it. They have the cash and the chips to go out and get some solid pitching, but insist on being a one-dimensional club.
I just broke a hamate bone while reading those hot takes. Thanks a bunch!
How dare you say that “so and so” is going to have a season like that!
Okay my hot takes on Tim’s hot takes ….
The 3 busts he mentioned will be Cease, Bregman and Bellinger
Skubal will not win the Cy, because Crochet will.
Judge and Dumpa won’t win MVP because Roman will win his first.
And not only will the Twins NOT make the playoffs, they will finish BEHIND the ChiSox in the standings!
So Bregman will suck, Crochet wins the Cy, and Anthony wins the MVP. Definitely not a homer take here.
How would the Braves 2026 draft pick be moved back for their 2026 CBT? Isn’t that calculated at the end of the season?
That’s right TK. The Braves reset under the 1st level of the luxury tax last season. “The 10 spot move back penalty is triggered if a team’s final luxury tax payroll for the previous season (2025) exceeds the second surcharge threshold (set at $281M in 2025.)” “The Braves finished under the $241M 1st surcharge threshold last season to reset their tax status for 2026. Consequently, they have no surcharge and their first round pick remains in its original slot.” Quotes according to AI search.
Should be $284MM, AI is pretty bad at stuff like this.
Yes, thank you for pointing out the error. I will correct that.
Draft pick be damned- the Braves need a starter.
Only way the Braves have their 2026 draft affected is if they sign a player w/a QO—-so don’t sign Gallen.
The Braves could sign Bassit without losing a pick. I really wish I could be in the office when AA talks about the rotation right now because before Schwellenbauch went down there should have been concern about the rotation. We have key injuries to multiple starters. We are crazy if we think the rotation was just going to bounce back with no hangover effects.
I will stop short of saying AA should give Bassit a blank check but Anthopoulos should have all the needed urgency to aggressively push to sign him. He should probably go ahead and try to sign Giolito as well.
Isn’t this supposed to be in an email (in dark mode) sent to subscribers?
jorge – Tim occasionally allows everyone access to his content, it’s a great way to show them what they are missing and motivates them to sign up.
Why do you think Costco and Sam’s Club and many other places offer free samples.
Actually that was done in error! I should’ve taken a few extra minutes checking things before sending out.
Tim – I had your back, I was covering for you ….. you should have just gone with it! LOL!
But yeah, when I scrolled down and started reading the exact same paragraphs that I had already read, my first thought was Groundhog Day was last week ;O)
Good takes Tim! Twins?!?!
Yankees fans starting to warm up to Volpe is the hottest of hot takes.
Then I have succeeded!
Guardians win the Super Bowl, I mean the World Series.
Loved your afro and sideburns in the 70’s, Oscar!
Aren’t these “Hot Takes” a little more like “Bold Predictions?” I don’t really know, but they were a fun list. Thanks.
Yeah, probably true.
Hey Tim, how about setting up an article for our hot takes? It’s a slow news day right be ST! Could be fun
Could be hot take… Story gets bumped to 2nd and Mayer becomes SS. Mayer will have no issues with lefties or injury 🙂
DBH – Hey just remember I have dibs on Story getting traded at some point!
I don’t think he will be traded this year. He’s still a plus player, especially at 2B, for only $25 mils. Replacing him with a like player will cost more.
Be perfect for the Tampa Bay Rays!! don’t ever be able to get them for the price they can right now. Give them a little right handed power to go with Caminero and some veteran presence. 6-8 million Johnny show me your project. Where’s your project? Your opinion, Nick Martinez 13 million and he’s under 500. Then you better pay money close to that for some hitting!!