As Spring Training gets underway, many fans are watching top prospects. For the Pirates’ Konnor Griffin, however, it’s not just fans in Pittsburgh watching to see if he’ll be in the starting lineup on Opening Day; it’s the entire baseball world.
Griffin won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until the end of April. The ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft opened eyes all around the sport with his performance in his first professional season last year, slashing .333/.415/.527 in 122 games across three levels, topping out in Double-A. That was enough to make him the consensus top prospect in the sport. The Athletic’s Keith Law called Griffin “the most exciting prospect in the minors since Mike Trout” last month, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen described Griffin as “a franchise-altering entity whose talent rivals that of Bobby Witt Jr.”
It’s hard to get much more impressive than comparisons to Trout and Witt. Between the hype prospect evaluators of all stripes are heaping onto Griffin and his unbelievable start to his pro career, it’s understandable that he would be in the conversation to start the season with the Pirates on Opening Day, even though he’ll still be a teenager.
For now, the Pirates are saying all the right things. Every indication has been that the team will give Griffin the opportunity to earn his way onto the roster. The players currently standing in his way, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, aren’t the sort of slam-dunk regulars that would normally give a club pause when it comes to pushing one of them into a bench role. That open avenue toward a roster spot is great news for Griffin, and so far he’s made the most of the opportunity he’s been handed during camp with two homers in his first ten plate appearances this spring.
There are other factors to consider as well. The most obvious is that Griffin is extremely inexperienced as a professional. He’s played only 122 professional games. Elite prospects have been getting called up more quickly since Trout made his debut 15 years ago, but even by more recent standards Griffin would be among the fastest to reach the show. Witt had 161 games in the minors before his big league debut, and Juan Soto‘s short stint in the minor leagues lasted 122 games, the exact amount Griffin logged last year.
The Pirates are entering a year where they’re clearing trying to win, more than in other recent seasons. They added Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, and Marcell Ozuna to help bolster a stagnant offense and added Gregory Soto to the bullpen as well. That quartet cost around $60MM in total, which is a notable chunk of change by the Pirates’ typical standards.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes is under club control for just four more seasons before he’ll reach free agency and could see his arbitration price explode by 2027 or 2028. The Pirates are acutely aware of that, and getting the most out of Griffin they possibly can while Skenes is still in town should be the team’s top priority.
Service time is another factor the Pirates will need to consider, and that cuts both ways when it comes to the Griffin decision. Holding Griffin down for even just three weeks to start the year could unlock a seventh year of team control over Griffin by ensuring he doesn’t earn a full year of MLB service in 2026. The counter to that, of course, is Skenes himself. The Pirates didn’t promote Skenes until May 2024, but he was still dominant enough once he arrived to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and earn himself a full year of service anyway. Had they simply brought Skenes up on Opening Day, the Pirates would’ve been able to secure an extra draft pick thanks to his Rookie of the Year win.
Another wrinkle in the service time conversation is Griffin’s apparent willingness to consider an extension with Pittsburgh. If the sides were to reach a deal either this spring or in the early days of the 2026 campaign, that would negate the service time concerns. While explicitly holding a player down due to service time considerations or promoting them only if they agree to an extension is frowned upon, it has happened. The prospect promotion incentives added in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement have somewhat lessened the frequency with which such situations occur, but they’ve also prompted some teams to wait until late August with prospects who otherwise look ready, so as to preserve their rookie status (and potential PPI gains) the following season. The Pirates didn’t call Bubba Chandler up until Aug. 22 last year. If they do agree to an extension, the Bucs would be incentivized to not finalize it until after Griffin’s debut. A player who signs a pre-debut extension is not eligible to earn a PPI pick for his team.
How do MLBTR readers think Griffin’s candidacy for a spot on the Opening Day roster will play out? Will he make the team, or start the year in the minor leagues? Or, perhaps, could his status on the MLB roster be determined by how extension talks between the sides go this spring? Have your say in the poll below:
If they extend him that would make their off-season an A- for me. Currently it’s a B- which is still good for the buccos.
I’ve seen a lot of grades in the B-, B+ range which seems a little odd to me. Just based on the last decade, I don’t see how this offseason isn’t an A++++, they signed two all-star free agents, acquired a third along with a great addition in Mangum. Not to mention top 100 prospect in Garcia, all without drastically depleting any area. They were a historically bad offense last year and made all these moves and spent legitimate money for legitimate players. How is it still a B-, I’m genuinely just wondering.
all good moves but nothing major that alone jumps the needle. ie swarber would have been major…
I hear you, I just think the rhree hitters they added cumulatively will make a bigger impact than Schwarber alone. They wouldn’t have added anyone else if they signed Schwarber and would still have tons of holes everywhere.
Couldn’t agree more. Schwarber would have only been a good signing if they also got two other bats to help him, too.
Pirates
They might be the most improved team in baseball. Argues for A+.
They might be fourth place with around 79 wins in NL Central. Argues for C.
Far exceeded expectations because people expect zero from Nutting.
I will split the difference and call their offseason a B+.
I wouldn’t say A+ but I would give it an A-.
These offseason ratings are hilarious to me because they seem to be done in isolation to the quality of the team for some and not for others.
The Mariners didn’t do much this offseason, in terms of improving their roster from what it had been. They kept Naylor, which is neither improving nor weakening their lineup, lost Suarez and Polanco, not to mention Harry Ford, and replaced them with Donavon. A great player but does not make up for Suarez and Polanco. Yet, they’ve been seen to have had a great offseason because they are still in a good position to win because they honestly didn’t need to do much as they were so close to winning the Pennant last year. So they are judged based on their competitiveness not on their improvement from where they were last year. By that measure, the Dodgers could have done literally nothing and had a good offseason because they didn’t really need to do anything to remain competitive.
Yet, the Pirates clearly improved a lot from where they were yet had a worse offseason than the Mariners? I don’t get it.
Sandlot…beautifully said. To fairly evaluate each team….look what each team added….in COMPARISON to where they were the year before. You said it perfectly
They have to promote Konnor just to save face from the Bubba debacle. Besides why not give the fans an additional reason to come to the park or tune in. I do think they et an extension done.
Bubba is an interesting case. I can see it going both ways. They should have brought him up but he also didn’t have an easy time in AAA all of last year.
Could see extension getting done later in season but why rush Griffin,Davis was rushed and now you’re ready to write him off as bust … Let get Griffin in AAAfor a season,he’s ONLY 19!!!!
Dude may be 19, but he’s got the body of a middle linebacker….
Also, Trout was 19 when he made his debut. Worked out just fine….
Davis’s bat was rushed leading them to change his position. I still wonder what he could have been if they just let him catch and come up.
There isn’t a great reason to keeping griffin in the minors if he lights up minor league and spring training pitching
But spending a year in triple A never hurts
Even if they don’t extend him, which is looking like a reality, they gotta bring him up with the big league team. He would have to have an atrocious Spring Training to not force their hand.
Nutting can justifiably use the excuse that he hasn’t played AAA yet to keep him for an extra year. Griffin could still conceivably be top 2 in ROY voting to negate that down time. What’s worth more to Nutting – the PPI pick or an extra year of Griffin?
That’s actually really accurate reality. I’m not saying it’s right but that’s on brand for Nutting.
if they work out an extension before he’s in majors he’s ppi ineligible…
A bit premature as he only has 10 plate appearances. On base 3 times. 2 HR and 1 HBP. Right now he is an all or nothing hitter in a very small sample size. Will have to see how it plays out over the spring. If he starts raking all over the field then sure he is going to start on the opening day roster. If he is not, it would make much more sense to start him in AAA for a month to play every day and settle in to start the season and start to consistently hit, he would be better off getting the call up oo a roll and a much better shot at never getting sent down again
Did he look good with his home runs? Absolutely. But a .222 average currently against a bunch of pitchers that may never see day one in the majors is what make me think he will be in the minors. He has plenty of time to get hot I get it. They need to keep him in the minors for what a 16 days to add a year of control? I could easily see that happening.
10 plate appearances and posters are labeling him inexperienced
He hit mammoth homers two days ago, one traveled 445 feet at a 113 mph clip
One of those shots was against Ranger Suarez…..
Thats why these posters comments dont mean a thing. They are just complaining about him just to get on with their miserable day
Well, the point is moot if Griffin finishes 1st or 2nd in ROY voting….
Break wind more like
They still need to add at 3B !! Triolo not going to cut it going out there every day. He needs to be their super utility guy ! Griffin at SS & a legitimate Bat at 3B will give them a very good lineup
1B— Horwitz
LF—Reynolds
2B—Lowe
DH—Ozuna
RF— O’Hearn
CF—Cruz
SS—Griffin
3B—Paredes (wishful thinking)
C—Bart
Yes, he will break camp with them, and will win rookie of the year as the Pirates miss out on the wild card the last weekend of the season.
Yeah, trying to manipulate his service time is useless cuz he’ll get that year for finishing top 2 of ROY voting….
I am betting they are trying to extend him right now.
I’ll amend my previous prediction/suggestion to 7 years/$136.5M guaranteed with the option to opt into arbitration and nothing more, except maybe a team option that would trigger 13 years/$810M or something insane like that.
Basically for a team like the Pirates, there is no financial precedent for what an even team friendly but still realistic and sane offer that he might accept could be.
If they low ball him to their standards it’s a hard pass and if they offer him something remotely competitive they’ll be breaking the bank to the point they might as well open up their wallet across the board and enter a stratospherically different budgeting world for the kinds of players they go after to make his contract make a lick of sense.
If they extend him that would be a miracle since if Griffin becomes the best shortstop in the league he might be the 1st billion dollar contract in LA or Queens
If they extend him, then yes. If not, then no. They will manipulate his service time to get the extra year and say he “needs to work on some things”
They won’t get that extra year when he finishes top 2 in ROY voting. It’s so dumb. Dude is the next big thing….
The kid is definitely ready for the bigs. His glove work looks solid. Plus his swing is so pretty, with easy power to all fields. Once in a generation talent. Not based on a few spring training games, but on the stellar evaluations from true professionals.
Whether the Pirates want to get cute with service time shenanigans, remains to be seen. Personally would love to see Konnor start the year in MLB.
With the Pirates would’ve signed Eugenio Suárez. Pittsburgh seems one piece away, from having a good MLB squad. They should make a run at Casey Schmitt in SF, who is a MLB gold glove caliber 3B (with league average bat), who is currently blocked by Matt Chapman.
Yeah, Skenes and Griffin will bring fans to the park and sell jerseys. Too bad, Nutting is too cheap to build depth around them….
Name a player who is at their age 20 season that has broke camp with their respective team.
He isn’t breaking camp on the major league roster. There is no way, no precedent, and no reason for the Pirates to lose a year of control by having him on opening day roster.