The baseball world is currently buzzing with excitement about Konnor Griffin. He hasn’t even hit his 20th birthday yet but is considered to be the top prospect in baseball and has a chance to break camp with the Pirates. Locking him up to a long-term deal is also a possibility, with Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporting that both Griffin and the Bucs are open to an extension.
It’s not a surprising stance from the team. As mentioned, Griffin is the top prospect in baseball and there seems to be little debating it. Baseball America, ESPN, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and The Athletic all have him in the top spot going into 2026. Some even consider him the best prospect in years. The ninth overall pick from 2024, he’s viewed as a rare five-tool monster. He’s a plus shortstop who was almost drafted as a pitcher, so the arm is clearly there.
Last year, he went from Single-A to High-A to Double-A, getting into 122 games overall. He hit 21 home runs and stole 65 bases. He slashed .333/.415/.527 on the year. He got some help from a .403 batting average on balls in play but everyone believes in the bat. It was reported in the offseason that the Bucs would consider carrying Griffin on the Opening Day roster this year even though he doesn’t turn 20 until late April and has no Triple-A experience. He added some more coal to the engine of the hype train when he hit two home runs against the Red Sox yesterday.
Not all prospects pan out but there are fewer busts the higher up the lists you go. Griffin seems to have a good chance to be a really good major league player for a long time. Players in this position are also often signed to extensions. In recent years, cornerstone players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Wander Franco, Jackson Merrill, Roman Anthony, Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuña Jr. and others have signed big multi-year extensions.
From Griffin’s perspective, it’s notable that he’s open to the possibility but he and the club would have to agree on a price point. Turning down a nine-figure guarantee probably isn’t easy but the potential for big earnings is still there if he goes year to year.
Juan Soto is an extreme example of the upside. The Nationals made Soto multiple nine-figure extension offers, reportedly getting as high as $440MM in 2022, but Soto made a bet on himself. That paid off as he made $79.6MM during his four arbitration seasons and then hit free agency as a 26-year old. That youth helped him secure a $765MM deal from the Mets.
That path is theoretically open to Griffin. As mentioned, he’s still about two months away from his 20th birthday. If he is able to earn a full service time this year, he could hit free agency after 2031, a few months ahead of his 26th birthday. Even if it’s too much to expect him to be as good as Soto at the plate, Griffin seems likely to add more value via his speed and defense.
As mentioned by Hiles, it’s possible for the Bucs and Griffin to sign some kind of deal that gives the club some extra years of control but still allows him to hit free agency in his late 20s. Griffin may be open to that but he would be leaving some upside on the table, as teams clearly value that youth. In addition to the Soto example, there’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He got $325MM, the largest deal for a pure pitcher ever, even though he no major league experience yet. A major factor was the fact that he was 25 years old when he was coming over from Japan.
Perhaps there’s some way to get creative and have Griffin lock in big earnings while still preserving future earning potential. Witt’s deal with the Royals is for 11 years but he can opt out after seven. The pact between Rodríguez and the Mariners is technically a 12-year guarantee but with a very complicated structure involving multiple options and escalators starting after the sixth full year.
Whether creative structures are involved or not, the price is likely to rise over time, as players generally have more earning power as they move towards free agency. Jackson Chourio has the record guarantee for a player who hasn’t yet debuted, getting eight years and $82MM from the Brewers. Even a brief major league debut is enough for a big jump, with many of the aforementioned names getting their nine-figure deals with less than a year of big league experience. Rodríguez got the top guarantee for guys under one year of service, getting to $210MM. After two years in the big leagues, Tatis got $340MM and Witt $288.8MM.
The Pirates would likely have to go into franchise-record territory to get something done. The biggest guarantee they’ve given out was their $100MM deal for Bryan Reynolds a few years back. Griffin has more prospect hype than Chourio did a few years ago when he signed his extension with Milwaukee, so it’s arguable that Griffin could warrant a nine-figure guarantee right now.
The Bucs generally don’t run up huge payrolls but should be able to get something done if they want to, as the long-term books are fairly clean. The Reynolds deal goes through 2030 but with a $14MM salary this year and $15MM in each of the next four campaigns. That’s a decent chunk of change but fairly manageable in the context of modern baseball salaries. The Mitch Keller deal only goes through 2028. Ryan O’Hearn is the only other guy with a guaranteed deal for 2027. Even though the Bucs are a fairly low-spending club, similar teams have gotten these deals done, with the Rays signing Franco and the Royals signing Witt.
If the Bucs and Griffin are able to work something out in the next few weeks, the team would be incentivized to not make it official until after Opening Day. Strangely, the prospect promotion incentive doesn’t apply to players who have already signed long-term extensions, so Chourio wasn’t PPI eligible for the Brewers. It is perhaps not a coincidence that Kristian Campbell and Samuel Basallo signed extensions a few days after their respective major league promotions last year, therefore keeping the PPI on the table. Campbell’s PPI eligibility was later nullified because he was optioned to the minors and didn’t earn a full year of service in 2025.
Time will tell if the two sides can work out a deal or not. Contract status aside, Griffin’s ascent is adding excitement for the Pirates in 2026. There was already a lot of talent on the pitching staff, led by Paul Skenes. The offense has been lacking but they added O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe and Marcell Ozuna in the offseason. If Griffin can come up, take over the shortstop job and succeed, that could be another boon for the lineup. It can be dangerous putting too many expectations on such a young player but the industry is unanimous in considering Griffin special.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images
Get it done; lst!!!!
I guess he isn’t represented by Scott Boras.
Mmmm, a billion for three w/a couple opt outs? 🤣
I would ask for a single opt out, that his contract gets an opt out the offseason during or after a Skenes trade
10 year, $1,000,000, take it or leave it…
I say 9/126
If I was batting .222 in spring I would take any money they will give!!!! Lol joking of course, fairly certain he is better than that.
It would be cool. Sign him to. 20yr deal!
The Pirates do need a face of the franchise willing to extend and stay . Locking this kid up could (unlikely though) convince Skenes that the team wants to win and be a perennial contender. Question is will it actually happen ? Would it convince Othrrscto follow suit ? As a non Buc fan but who loved them in the Van Slyke-Bonds-Bonilla-Drabek era I wish them well and hope they stop being a laughing stock since Nutting bought the club .
I think that window to extend Skenes has already shut as he has endorsements with Nike, Topps, Axe, Franklin Sports, Geico, and Raising Cane’s.
They can try and win all they want but unless the league changes to full revenue sharing in the next cba Skenes is never signing in Pitt
The Pirates haven’t been perennial contenders since the 70’s, beyond that they had two 3 year windows (1990-’92, 2013-’15). It would be nice to see them actually keep a young start player for longer than their arbitration window. The rare exceptions with this team has been Andrew McCutchen and Jason Kendall before him
Would be a smart play, especially if they determine he is the real deal. It sure looks like it so far.
He will be making the biggest mistake of his life if he signs an extension with the Pirates. His agent and his parents should be immediately fired.
Realistically, he’d be giving up at most two years of free agency. So, two years of being able to earn “what he’s worth.”
On the flip side, he’d be able to earn something like $10M AAV in his pre-arb years. So, at least $9.1M more than he’d already be earning each year during that time.
Arbitration could look very different after the new CBA but let’s say it looks the same as it does now: he’d likely get $12-14M in arb 1 by the time he got there, with raises each year. Let’s say he got something close to what Skubal got this past year.
Adding all that up, with a deal that gave him something like $10M a year for 8-9 years (which I think is low–I think he could get more like $12-14M a year), he’d be earning $80-90M, versus a world in which he stays under his current agreement where he earns league minimum for the next four years ($3.1M), $12M in arb 1, $19M in arb , and then $32M in arb 3 for a grand total of a bit over $66M in those 7 years.
He’ll likely earn $30-40M AAV at least if he’s anywhere close to this good and that puts him ahead but honestly not by a ton. $8-10M? Either way, that’s not a “biggest mistake of his life” type decision. He’ll be just fine.
Unless you mean that he’d be hitching his wagon to a terrible franchise, in which case, let me introduce you to Mike Trout.
It could be
2026 – AAA/MLB debut
2027 – pre Arb
2028 – pre Arb
2029 – pre Arb
2030 – Arb 1 – guess $15M
2031 – Arb 2 guess $25M
2032 – Arb 3 guess $35M
$75M over next 7 years but nothing guaranteed… OR
10-$150M extension.
Nobody makes that much in arbitration
Soto settle for $31M and Skubal won for $32M. We’re talking seven seasons from today on his final arb year under a new CBA. Those figures are very realistic if he’s a stud.
Anthony Roman’s deal is a great framework. 8/130 which can escalate to 230 with escalators.
Add 5-10% to that and you’re pretty much there. Get it done bucs. This isn’t Marte, Polanco, or Tabata.
Who is Anthony Roman?
Mark Antony
Wow
WHoops. Ive been calling him that for a bit now.
ZiPS loves him
2026 – 3.5 WAR
2027 – 3.9 WAR
2028 – 4.5 WAR
Pirates: We are offering you life changing money: 15 years/$75M, $60M deferred to years 16-36.
In all seriousness, they’d have to offer anybody willing to sign an early extension at most 6 years/$61.65M w/ the option to opt into arbitration and out of the guarantee (but guaranteed $60M over four years of would be arbitration and $825k a year pre arbitration) because anything beyond that and the amount they might be committing to a dud or the amount he might be giving up as a stud is virtually incalculable in today’s market and salary ranges.
Hasnt played 1 mlb game lol. Shittsburg
Do it, please
This kid breaking camp is one THE stories of baseball (and fantasy baseball). Kid looks insane.
No longer a beat reporter. Not a solid source.
Moronic
Go Pirates! Lock him up!
Is he the real deal, Pirates fans? If he’s as good as advertised, then Bob Nutting needs to open up the pocketbook, especially if the young man is willing to sign an extension.
Yes, his upside is insane, and he’s become an excellent defensive shortstop. Even if he puts up like a 105-110 wRC+, he’s going to be like a 3-4 win player because of his defense and baserunning. But he has the ceiling to be like an annual 140+ wRC+ sort of bat.
Sounds like he’s part of your young core to go along with Paul Skenes. I’m glad the Pirates are making a real effort to compete. Your fanbase deserves to be excited.
At least a 10 year deal, which would still allow him to reach free agency at 30. Anything less than that and the Pirates probably don’t do it
Griffin and McGonigle are two prospects that their teams should sign to pre career extensions.