Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Skubal, Tigers head to arbitration:
As noted by The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen, an arbitration hearing is scheduled for today between the Tigers and back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. That makes today the last day for the sides to reach an agreement to avoid a hearing, though that looks extremely unlikely. Not only is there a massive $13MM gap between Skubal’s $32MM filing figure and the team’s $19MM figure, but the Tigers typically refuse to negotiate on one-year deals following the filing deadline. Assuming the case does go to a hearing in front of an arbitration panel, a decision won’t be expected today. When that decision does get handed down, however, it has the potential for notable consequences. If Skubal wins, his $32MM salary for this year would raise the bar substantially for future ace pitchers after decades of arms falling short of even $20MM in salary arbitration. If the Tigers win, they could have significantly more resources available to further bolster the club.
2. The Valdez market:
Framber Valdez is the top name left on the market, with the Orioles standing as the only team aggressively linked to him on the rumor mill. Baltimore has some competition, however, as their AL East rivals in Toronto were also connected to Valdez yesterday. If the Jays pick up their interest, that could put some pressure on the Orioles to get a deal done, and after a busy offseason where the Jays missed out on both Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette the team successfully luring Valdez to Canada can’t be ruled out. With fewer and fewer avenues left to improve, teams who were focused on other targets could start to circle back to Valdez in the days ahead.
3. Two DFA resolutions expected:
Left-hander Konnor Pilkington of the Nationals and Rockies outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez were both designated for assignment one week ago today, meaning they’ve been placed on waivers and a resolution should be expected today. If either player clears, they figure to head to Triple-A as non-roster depth for their current club via outright assignment. A waiver claim from a rival club would send them off to a new organization with their hold on a 40-man roster spot intact. Pilkington made his MLB debut in 2022 as a member of the Guardians and sports a career 3.97 ERA across 88 1/3 innings of work, albeit with lackluster peripheral numbers. Fernandez, meanwhile, made his MLB debut in 2025 and hit just .225/.265/.348 in 147 plate appearances, but he’s only 23 years old, isn’t far removed from top-100 prospect status, and also has a minor league option remaining.
Skubal arbitration will have no winner is my guess. He definitely deserves the salary he’s commanding, but I don’t think the arbitrator will meet his expectations.
19M and a trade out of town is a win win.
Yes, Skubal’s return is much more at $19m and the Tigers would be fools not to deal him. If he wins though, they have to hope for a bidding war between the Mets and Dodgers as no other club at this point is likely to be willing to pay that amount and give up major assets.
If TOR misses out on Valdez they might come up with the money to pay him too.
Tigers came in with an offer too low. Kubal sets record for $32 mil payday.
Go arbiters!! Save the Tigers 13M please.
Wow the Tigers owner is on here! This is the loser mindset that’s ruining baseball. Bum teams like the tigers will only compete for that sorry central division crown and nothing more. If they don’t want to pay their best player then why keep him? Trade him and stop the charade.
Hard to believe Fernandez will go unclaimed. I haven’t seen him play, with the Rox so unwatchable. Is his fielding so bad that no one is interested?
Hope tarik wins he deserves it b2b cy youngs come on. Hopefully that forces a trade to a competitive team
“If the Tigers win, they could have significantly more resources available to further bolster the club” – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
They are owned by a Trust, and have never, ever, ever been aggressive in free agency since Mike Ilitch passed away. They have made the playoffs on pure luck – don’t forget they were 1 loss away from having the all-time biggest playoff meltdown this past year – and have done nothing to bolster their team, in an awful division. What team in today’s era, has this young of a core, makes the playoffs 2 years in a row, and does absolutely nothing in free agency to address the obvious needs? The Tigers are not a real organization. It exists soley to cash checks to the 6 children of Mike Ilitich. That’s it.
The resources will be used to sign a 32 year old career minor league middle reliever from the Rockies organization to a minor league contract and spring training invitation. Woo hoo!
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Arbitrator will take one look at Skuby Doos W/L record and side with Detroit. #winsmatterinarbitration
Birds are going to find a way to miss on the Valdez acquisition. If they were this down on him, they should have gone all in on Ranger Suárez instead.
For all the fans who are roasting the Tigers over this, you are way off base. Believe me, Boras is not interested in any negotiation. Plus, their offer still represents a big raise. Look, it’s easy to criticize with the benefit of hindsight, now that we.lnow what the Boras number is. And speaking of Boras, he chose their number to make a point and he wants to be known for breaking the artificial ceiling. BTW, I don’t see any way Detroit can win this because what could possibly be their counter to, “he’s the best pitcher in mlb and has won 2 straight CYA’s”? I mean, what can you say to that? Now granted, their offer is still one helluva raise. And I get it that the average Joe worker like myself can’t relate. But baseball is not just a job; it’s not even just a sport – it’s a TV series, and these are stars, not average people. Skubal will win IMO. As for the harm it may do to their relationship, it’s not like the Tigers were going to sign him in free agency anyway, so who cares.
What could possibly be Detroit’s counter argument? It’s this: In 2025, the Tigers ultimately had one team to get through–the Seattle Mariners–and he lost ALL 4 TIMES. Twice in the regular season, and twice in the post. No division championship, no ALCS.
Look, win or lose, the Tigers lose. They’ve put up a big sign saying they’re not in the running to retain Skubal in the long run.
With this chasm between, Skubal won’t be signing long term with Detroit, not that Bora$ would let him anyway, preferring his large market buddies for more $ for him.
Soreass has replaced Gorge Steingrabber as the most despicable character in baseball. Meanwhile Boyfred fiddles through the flames of America’s Pastense.
What what it is worth, the two sides can technically settle even AFTER the hearing up until the result is released. Although in practice I don’t remember that happening.
This is Boras attempting to break the owners. Odds are Skubal wins and this breaks the arbitration process and a majority of the teams that don’t have money like the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, etc.. Before Skubal the highest arbitration award was around $20 million by Guerrero. Boras is coming in with a 50+% ask higher than that award. You expect it to go up but this a game changer.
The Tigers should have went in with a number closer to $23 to $25 million. The Pirates will be hamstrung with Skenes. They will just have to go with year to year of a high contract from arbitration or trade Skenes to a larger market team at a discount. The larger market team’s offer will be lessened because they can throw the salary award in their face.
The highest arbitration award for a position player was Vladdy Jr. at $19.9M and the highest by a pitcher was David Price’s $19.75M.
Generally, when precedents are reset, they are increased by, at most, a million or two. Asking for $12M more than the record seems somewhat silly, even if it’s still less than what he’d make on the open market.
I think Boras’ grandstanding has cost his client a few million, because if they had asked for 21 or 22 million, the arbitrators probably would have sided with Skubal, but asking them to obliterate the precedent always seemed like an overreach to get headlines.
This is the correct summation.
@canuck
The Tigers made a critical strategic error by offering Skubal $19M, which is actually below David Price’s 2015 record of $19.75M and far below what that amount is worth today when adjusted for inflation (approximately $25-26M). Skubal is objectively more accomplished than Price was at that point, having won back-to-back Cy Young Awards versus Price’s single award, making the Tigers’ offer indefensible. Because arbitrators must choose one figure or the other and cannot split the difference, they’ll pick whichever number is closer to what they believe is fair market value. Even if the arbitrator thinks $32M is somewhat high, it’s far closer to Skubal’s true value than the Tigers’ lowball $19M offer that essentially ignores both inflation and his superior resume. By anchoring their offer below a decade-old precedent, the Tigers essentially guaranteed they’ll lose this case and pay the full $32M.
I don’t know enough about arbitration to know if this is true but my understanding is that arbitration is quite different than free agency. Arbitration is paying you for what you’ve done, free agency is paying you for what you may become.
Skubal has had two absolutely dominant seasons. Before this though, was he as dominant? Everyone wants to compare him to David Price since he’s the record holder for arb salary for a pitcher but here are the differences as I understand them:
Price had finished in the top ten for Cy Young 3 times (won it once). Was an all star 4 times. He had pitched over 200 innings 3 times, over 200 Ks three times, had a 20 win season, and had accumulated 23 WAR already. He had had a longevity to him already established.
Skubal has had two really good seasons. Outstanding seasons. But he hasn’t had the career David Price had up to this point in their careers. Before 2024, he hadn’t led the league in anything and had not had the same longetivity.
I don’t know if this should necessarily count against him but I do think it’s worth looking at Price and Skubal as it relates to their careers not just their two best years. Skubal will get his reward when he enters free agency but arbitration is not free agency. It’s an awful system and needs to be reformed but I can see an avenue where the Tigers win.
Except in this case the Tigers did try to negotiate with Skubal and his agent, Bora$$ rebuffed them.
This is about more than Skubal and the Tigers. Skubal and Bora$$ want to challenge the arbitration system that has devalued pitchers over hitters. So they are looking to set a record for any player. Skubal is going to get paid one way or another. But a win in arbitration would totally change the arbitration system for the players. Unlikely but if there is a player who can do it, it is Skubal.
The $31M will be the most likely figure to generate a trade.
1)Tigers would be MORE motivated to avoid the hefty price.
2)Contending teams go see a higher price as meaning less prospect cost & fewer teams in competition for his services.
3) Even at $31M, smaller & mid market teams would be in contention of Skub was available.