Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Skubal, Tigers head to arbitration:
As noted by The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen, an arbitration hearing is scheduled for today between the Tigers and back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. That makes today the last day for the sides to reach an agreement to avoid a hearing, though that looks extremely unlikely. Not only is there a massive $13MM gap between Skubal’s $32MM filing figure and the team’s $19MM figure, but the Tigers typically refuse to negotiate on one-year deals following the filing deadline. Assuming the case does go to a hearing in front of an arbitration panel, a decision won’t be expected today. When that decision does get handed down, however, it has the potential for notable consequences. If Skubal wins, his $32MM salary for this year would raise the bar substantially for future ace pitchers after decades of arms falling short of even $20MM in salary arbitration. If the Tigers win, they could have significantly more resources available to further bolster the club.
2. The Valdez market:
Framber Valdez is the top name left on the market, with the Orioles standing as the only team aggressively linked to him on the rumor mill. Baltimore has some competition, however, as their AL East rivals in Toronto were also connected to Valdez yesterday. If the Jays pick up their interest, that could put some pressure on the Orioles to get a deal done, and after a busy offseason where the Jays missed out on both Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette the team successfully luring Valdez to Canada can’t be ruled out. With fewer and fewer avenues left to improve, teams who were focused on other targets could start to circle back to Valdez in the days ahead.
3. Two DFA resolutions expected:
Left-hander Konnor Pilkington of the Nationals and Rockies outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez were both designated for assignment one week ago today, meaning they’ve been placed on waivers and a resolution should be expected today. If either player clears, they figure to head to Triple-A as non-roster depth for their current club via outright assignment. A waiver claim from a rival club would send them off to a new organization with their hold on a 40-man roster spot intact. Pilkington made his MLB debut in 2022 as a member of the Guardians and sports a career 3.97 ERA across 88 1/3 innings of work, albeit with lackluster peripheral numbers. Fernandez, meanwhile, made his MLB debut in 2025 and hit just .225/.265/.348 in 147 plate appearances, but he’s only 23 years old, isn’t far removed from top-100 prospect status, and also has a minor league option remaining.
Skubal arbitration will have no winner is my guess. He definitely deserves the salary he’s commanding, but I don’t think the arbitrator will meet his expectations.
Skubal has been way under paid over the last few years. He definitely deserves the higher amount and that is still a fabulous deal for the Tigers.
Tigers have already cemented Skubal as the new Ace of the Dodgers or possibly the Mets.
19M and a trade out of town is a win win.
Yes, Skubal’s return is much more at $19m and the Tigers would be fools not to deal him. If he wins though, they have to hope for a bidding war between the Mets and Dodgers as no other club at this point is likely to be willing to pay that amount and give up major assets.
If TOR misses out on Valdez they might come up with the money to pay him too.
I did forget about the Jays…
If he really becomes available, I think you might be surprised at who is willing to get creative to acquire Skubal, even at $32 million
Budgets can be shifted to account for acquiring arguably the best pitcher in the game
John, it’s only one year and teams lately value young talent with cheap years of control more than ever.
I agree that teams are prioritizing their young talent and less willing to give it up for rental-type players
But Skubal would arguably be the best rental asset traded since Ken Griffey Jr. He absolutely moves the needle and you don’t have to pay him until he’s 40. IMO a player of his caliber is the exception to what you describe
Tigers came in with an offer too low. Kubal sets record for $32 mil payday.
The midpoint is $25.5. If the arbitrators think $25 is the accurate number, or any other number under $25.5, the club wins. The Tigers are in very good shape here, no other 5 year service player has been awarded anywhere near what he is asking, and this is a process where precedent is important. If Kubal had come in at 30, or better still at 28, he might have won. The arbitrators may have picked 25 as the best salary and he’d be closest to the number. But his agents have over-reached.
The highest award ever was Vlad Guerrero Jr in 2024 at 19.9. The highest settlement, which is all the player has to rely on here, is Soto at 31.5.
The arbitrator can’t make up a number on his own. It’s either $19M or $32M. There is no in-between.
Disregard that. I mis-interpreted your comment. Sorry.
BSE
“his agents have over-reached.”
I’m going to guess that Boras knows more about this than you
No offense
That doesn’t mean I think it’s 100% that Skubal will win
That would be a more saleable argument if clubs didn’t win the considerable majority of cases.
Go arbiters!! Save the Tigers 13M please.
Wow the Tigers owner is on here! This is the loser mindset that’s ruining baseball. Bum teams like the tigers will only compete for that sorry central division crown and nothing more. If they don’t want to pay their best player then why keep him? Trade him and stop the charade.
The ‘sorry’ Central Division had 3 teams make the playoffs in 2024 (Guardians, Royals and Tigers). So it must not be to sorry of a division.
KC beat the Orioles… Tigers beat the Astros… Yankees ended up beating the Guardians.
And there were two last year. What’s your point? Look, I am saying that all those teams will fight to win the division and maybe even win a series in the playoffs, but it ends there. Dodgers or no Dodgers, those teams—and teams like them (like my cheapskate Orioles)—aren’t winning anything of significance anytime soon because they are constantly rebuilding and trading off their bests assets.
And of the teams in that division you mentioned only the Royals in 2015 and again way back in 1985 have won a world series. Ironically a year after the Tigers won in 1984. But in true small market form the Royals won that world series and went back into the tank. But maybe they can do something ina couple years considering that they actually decided to lock up their best player instead of cheaping out on him.
Hard to believe Fernandez will go unclaimed. I haven’t seen him play, with the Rox so unwatchable. Is his fielding so bad that no one is interested?
I just looked at his numbers, as I wasn’t familiar with him. Seems someone would want him, right?
Looking at his numbers, Fernandez seems to enter a level and struggle, but then after a year, he does very well. He might rebound his second time in the majors. Someone should give him a shot.
Hope tarik wins he deserves it b2b cy youngs come on. Hopefully that forces a trade to a competitive team
“If the Tigers win, they could have significantly more resources available to further bolster the club” – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
They are owned by a Trust, and have never, ever, ever been aggressive in free agency since Mike Ilitch passed away. They have made the playoffs on pure luck – don’t forget they were 1 loss away from having the all-time biggest playoff meltdown this past year – and have done nothing to bolster their team, in an awful division. What team in today’s era, has this young of a core, makes the playoffs 2 years in a row, and does absolutely nothing in free agency to address the obvious needs? The Tigers are not a real organization. It exists soley to cash checks to the 6 children of Mike Ilitich. That’s it.
The resources will be used to sign a 32 year old career minor league middle reliever from the Rockies organization to a minor league contract and spring training invitation. Woo hoo!
As a fan I have to admit that you’re right, unfortunately. The same thing can kind of be said about the Red Wings, too, but at least there’s a salary cap in the NHL. No urgency whatsoever by the Illitch kids to spend money to be, or continue to be, competitive.
Exactly right! All that talk about once Cabrera and Fielder’s money is off the books and we become competitive again. Well the Tigers have been competitive again and we barely spend. We don’t sign our star player (Skubal) like in the past but sign players coming off injuries or bad years (Cobb, Torres). Now I hear they won’t be broadcasting games anymore.
Scott Harris is a clown. He is standing there looking at his window shutting and he doesn’t even know what a window is. The Tigers squeaked into the playoffs the last 2 years and won their first round in the playoffs. Imagine if Harris had tried adding some decent players to the team. The same holes they had 2 years ago are still holes in the 2026 team. 3B, SS, RF, starting pitching. Harris is a clown.
If they made a movie about Scott Harris, Alicia Silverstone would play Harris. (Clueless)
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Arbitrator will take one look at Skuby Doos W/L record and side with Detroit. #winsmatterinarbitration
Birds are going to find a way to miss on the Valdez acquisition. If they were this down on him, they should have gone all in on Ranger Suárez instead.
Ranger had red flags too with velocity loss. Balt likely has a price and years limit as a #2 and older fa and framer wants cease’s deal…
For all the fans who are roasting the Tigers over this, you are way off base. Believe me, Boras is not interested in any negotiation. Plus, their offer still represents a big raise. Look, it’s easy to criticize with the benefit of hindsight, now that we.lnow what the Boras number is. And speaking of Boras, he chose their number to make a point and he wants to be known for breaking the artificial ceiling. BTW, I don’t see any way Detroit can win this because what could possibly be their counter to, “he’s the best pitcher in mlb and has won 2 straight CYA’s”? I mean, what can you say to that? Now granted, their offer is still one helluva raise. And I get it that the average Joe worker like myself can’t relate. But baseball is not just a job; it’s not even just a sport – it’s a TV series, and these are stars, not average people. Skubal will win IMO. As for the harm it may do to their relationship, it’s not like the Tigers were going to sign him in free agency anyway, so who cares.
What could possibly be Detroit’s counter argument? It’s this: In 2025, the Tigers ultimately had one team to get through–the Seattle Mariners–and he lost ALL 4 TIMES. Twice in the regular season, and twice in the post. No division championship, no ALCS.
$19M is way to low, though. Had they offered $24, they may have had a chance at winning. I don’t see them winning this, and now there’s zero chance he stays. Arbitration can get really ugly.
Look, win or lose, the Tigers lose. They’ve put up a big sign saying they’re not in the running to retain Skubal in the long run.
That happened before the arbitration process even begun.
With this chasm between, Skubal won’t be signing long term with Detroit, not that Bora$ would let him anyway, preferring his large market buddies for more $ for him.
Skubal may be the last big Dodgers contract before the cap.
Soreass has replaced Gorge Steingrabber as the most despicable character in baseball. Meanwhile Boyfred fiddles through the flames of America’s Pastense.
Wordplay, oh my goodness, You are so clever. And the insight! Be still my heart.
This is what trying too hard looks like.
People tell me I’m trying.
“Boyfred fiddles through the flames of America’s Pastense.”
Well, Manfred went down to Georgia, looking for an all star game to steal
What what it is worth, the two sides can technically settle even AFTER the hearing up until the result is released. Although in practice I don’t remember that happening.
I really don’t see a scenario where that would happen, unless Detroit wins arb (doubtful) and Skubal refuses to play
This is Boras attempting to break the owners. Odds are Skubal wins and this breaks the arbitration process and a majority of the teams that don’t have money like the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, etc.. Before Skubal the highest arbitration award was around $20 million by Guerrero. Boras is coming in with a 50+% ask higher than that award. You expect it to go up but this a game changer.
The Tigers should have went in with a number closer to $23 to $25 million. The Pirates will be hamstrung with Skenes. They will just have to go with year to year of a high contract from arbitration or trade Skenes to a larger market team at a discount. The larger market team’s offer will be lessened because they can throw the salary award in their face.
The highest arbitration award for a position player was Vladdy Jr. at $19.9M and the highest by a pitcher was David Price’s $19.75M.
Generally, when precedents are reset, they are increased by, at most, a million or two. Asking for $12M more than the record seems somewhat silly, even if it’s still less than what he’d make on the open market.
I think Boras’ grandstanding has cost his client a few million, because if they had asked for 21 or 22 million, the arbitrators probably would have sided with Skubal, but asking them to obliterate the precedent always seemed like an overreach to get headlines.
This is the correct summation.
@canuck
The Tigers made a critical strategic error by offering Skubal $19M, which is actually below David Price’s 2015 record of $19.75M and far below what that amount is worth today when adjusted for inflation (approximately $25-26M). Skubal is objectively more accomplished than Price was at that point, having won back-to-back Cy Young Awards versus Price’s single award, making the Tigers’ offer indefensible. Because arbitrators must choose one figure or the other and cannot split the difference, they’ll pick whichever number is closer to what they believe is fair market value. Even if the arbitrator thinks $32M is somewhat high, it’s far closer to Skubal’s true value than the Tigers’ lowball $19M offer that essentially ignores both inflation and his superior resume. By anchoring their offer below a decade-old precedent, the Tigers essentially guaranteed they’ll lose this case and pay the full $32M.
I doubt arbitrators are looking at total dollars as much as a percentage of increase in pay.
The Tigers’ $19 million offer to Tarik Skubal is indefensible when you consider that David Price’s $19.75 million award from 2015 would be worth approximately $25-26 million today after adjusting for inflation. Skubal’s back-to-back Cy Young Awards objectively represent superior performance compared to Price’s single Cy Young at the time of his arbitration, meaning he deserves more than even the inflation-adjusted figure. By offering less than what Price received a decade ago in nominal dollars, the Tigers are essentially asking Skubal to accept far less purchasing power while delivering better results. If the arbitrator adheres to the CBA’s mandate to consider quality of performance and comparative baseball salaries, there’s no logical way they could rule that a back-to-back Cy Young winner deserves less than what a single Cy Young winner earned a decade ago. The Tigers’ lowball offer guaranteed they would lose this case because even if the arbitrator finds $32 million somewhat high, it’s far closer to fair market value than an offer that ignores both the time value of money and Skubal’s elite performance.
Percentage increase in pay and what “comparables” are being paid in their final year of arbitration.
How do you predict it plays out Dewey?
The record for a pitcher going to arbitration a third time, like Skubal, is Max Scherzer, who won $15.525. This will be more than double the previous ask. David Price was a fourth time arbitration case. Skubal could potentially win this case, but the odds are very low.
@Dropped
Interesting that all players involved in your comp are all Cy Young winning former Tier aces. With Shwerzer and Price cases are over a decade ago. Even if the arbiter thought the the value provided were similar he likely would side for the $32 once you consider what the current day adjusted salary would be. $15 mil from 2015 is equivalent to about $24-$26 mil today. So giving Skubal $19 mil today is like giving Price or Shwerzer $10 mil back then. The CBA doesn’t explicitly allow for that but it says the most favorable comp and that comes with the time adjusted value.
Knicks your assessment seems the most intuitive and logical to me. If that is also how the arbitrators actually think, then Skubal is definitely getting the full 32 million. Makes perfect sense. Thanks for explaining it so clearly.
Even 25/26
I think he would get from arbitration
I don’t know enough about arbitration to know if this is true but my understanding is that arbitration is quite different than free agency. Arbitration is paying you for what you’ve done, free agency is paying you for what you may become.
Skubal has had two absolutely dominant seasons. Before this though, was he as dominant? Everyone wants to compare him to David Price since he’s the record holder for arb salary for a pitcher but here are the differences as I understand them:
Price had finished in the top ten for Cy Young 3 times (won it once). Was an all star 4 times. He had pitched over 200 innings 3 times, over 200 Ks three times, had a 20 win season, and had accumulated 23 WAR already. He had had a longevity to him already established.
Skubal has had two really good seasons. Outstanding seasons. But he hasn’t had the career David Price had up to this point in their careers. Before 2024, he hadn’t led the league in anything and had not had the same longetivity.
I don’t know if this should necessarily count against him but I do think it’s worth looking at Price and Skubal as it relates to their careers not just their two best years. Skubal will get his reward when he enters free agency but arbitration is not free agency. It’s an awful system and needs to be reformed but I can see an avenue where the Tigers win.
Except in this case the Tigers did try to negotiate with Skubal and his agent, Bora$$ rebuffed them.
This is about more than Skubal and the Tigers. Skubal and Bora$$ want to challenge the arbitration system that has devalued pitchers over hitters. So they are looking to set a record for any player. Skubal is going to get paid one way or another. But a win in arbitration would totally change the arbitration system for the players. Unlikely but if there is a player who can do it, it is Skubal.
The $31M will be the most likely figure to generate a trade.
1)Tigers would be MORE motivated to avoid the hefty price.
2)Contending teams go see a higher price as meaning less prospect cost & fewer teams in competition for his services.
3) Even at $31M, smaller & mid market teams would be in contention of Skub was available.
@cbsf i agree but think there’s more hinging on this.
If skubal gets $31mil he gets traded for a big haul but as you said there are fewer teams that will make an offer bc most wont think themselves able to sign him long term. the teams with $ and prospect capital to do it are FEW. If skubal gets only $19mil same story but he will command more prospect haul.
F valdez is waiting to see how this shakes out as it will help his market develop and I think the Pirates are as well. They will find out what prospect capital Skubal can command & trade Skenes for more.
Framber Valdez situation translated into reality:
‘Framber expected a monster deal this offseason but it turns out teams aren’t lining up for a pitcher who coldcocks his catcher, no matter how many internet fans claim he didn’t. So when all else fails we say the Toronto team is in the wings with an overpay. Often Toronto obliges with an actual overpay offer, but whether they do or not is less important than the possibility they will.’
More likely a 5 to 6 yr deal takes hin to agr 37 to 38. And he declined in 2nd half. Start of the regression or a bad 2 months.
Or he just doesn’t want to go to balt…
Both the Tigers and Skubal have submitted ridiculous figures. Arbitrators just need to select the ‘less ridiculous’ offer. Tough call I’d say.
When Price used as comp others need to realize he was a workhorse topping 200ip year after year. If Skubal had been able to pitch more in ’23 (limited results great), his arb figures for 3yrs of dominance rather than 2 would’ve adjusted to point where Soto-like 30mil+ final arb would be legit.
Thinking Tigers win but agree that even going 21mil would have helped-going tad too low may bite them in ruling.
Go Skubal! Go Boras!
The Skubal decision will way heavy on his trade value. If he wins, we get less in return, if we win, we get what was expected. However, Harris was foolish for waiting this long. I think he missed the “sweet spot” window for a max trade.
I think the crazy difference in arbitration salary would have made a trade difficult until it is decided. I think that is by design on Boras’ part.
I think they aimed too high. He has had two great years. The rest of his career is better than average but nothing spectacular. I think the awards are not a factor because they’re relative to other pitchers not being all that great. The runner up to the first one was Seth Lugo. Last year was Crochet who was great, but made under $25M. I think the Tigers will have an easier time defending the $19M than Boras will have supporting the $32M. Smoke and mirrors might be Boras’s specialty, and it might work with bidding prices up in free agency, but this is different. He’s not Koufax yet but I’m sure Boras could come up with some chart that shows he’ll be even better. Enough already.
Skuby has a 2.30 ERA. a 2.47 FIP and was worth at least +6 WAR the last two seasons. Who cares what the field did? Those are Koufax-ish seasons. Your comment is mind-blowing.
“Meanwhile” should START the sentence, not interrupt the syntax by coming in the middle between commas.