Phillies manager Rob Thomson informed reporters, including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the rotation is set for the beginning of the season. Cristopher Sánchez will be the Opening Day starter, followed by Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo, Taijuan Walker and then Andrew Painter. Though Painter is on the 40-man roster, he will be making his major league debut when he takes the ball in that fifth game of the season.
It’s not a surprising outcome. Zack Wheeler is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and will begin the season on the injured list, as has been expected throughout the offseason. Without Wheeler, it has long seemed like the aforementioned five guys would start the season in the rotation, and that has indeed come to pass.
Though it’s not a stunning development, it’s an exciting debut nonetheless. Painter was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league, if not the very best. The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Painter posted a 1.56 earned run average in the minors in 2022, climbing as high as Double-A. It seemed possible he could break camp with the Phils in 2023 even though he would have been a couple of weeks away from his 20th birthday at that time.
Elbow issues popped up in March of that year and scuttled any chance of Painter making the club. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in July, which led to him missing the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons. He was back on the mound last year but wasn’t dominant. He was able to make 22 Triple-A starts and throw 106 2/3 innings but with a 5.40 ERA in those. His 23.4% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate were close to average.
The prospect shine isn’t quite as bright as it was a few years ago but Painter is still only 22, about to turn 23 next month, and has lots of future potential. Most top 100 prospect lists had him in the 25 to 50 range coming into this year, a drop from being a top ten guy a few years back but still a strong ranking. The Phils added him to the 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. In four starts this spring, he posted a 2.31 ERA, though with a somewhat lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate and a very low .188 batting average on balls in play.
The rotation mix will surely be in flux as the season progresses. Wheeler isn’t expected to be too far off. He is scheduled to pitch in a minor league game on Monday, per Lauber, Wheeler’s first official game action since his surgery. He will surely need a few weeks to build up but is entering the final stages of his recovery.
Unless the Phillies want to deploy a six-man rotation, they will need to bump someone out when Wheeler is back. Painter has a full slate of options and could be sent back to Triple-A. It’s also possible he out-pitches Walker, which could lead to Painter holding a rotation spot. Walker has been bumped to the bullpen in previous seasons, so it’s entirely possible that could happen again.
Since Painter is still a top 100 prospect and is cracking the Opening Day roster, that means he has a chance to benefit the Phillies via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. If he stays in the majors long enough to earn a full year of service time, then wins Rookie of the Year in 2026 or finishes top three in Cy Young voting in his pre-arbitration seasons, he would net the Phils a bonus draft pick in the future.
Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
Interesting
I was thinking he’d get more time in the minors
Not a lot of options behind him. The Phillies didn’t add any depth starters this winter and no one has been released yet that would be better. DD probably didn’t want to spend $20 mil for Giolito to spend a month in the minors to get ready
What possible reason would Painter spend more time in the minors? He is ready, and should be one of the best rookie pitchers this year.
He doesn’t need any more time in the minors.
He has pitched well this ST. He earned the spot. Also getting further away from TJ surgery, he could be in for a big rookie year
More wins Andrew Painter or Mick Abel?
@Shoe This year, Abel. Career I would bet Painter.
Painter will contend for the N L rookie of the year award. He is on a much better team than the Twins, and will win more games than Abel.
Painter looked like a lock for 2025 debut. But he’ll get his chance in 2026.
Not much is clear after Sanchez and Luzardo. Is Wheeler healthy by May? Is it the good version of Nola or the 2025 version? Is Painter just solid or very good?
Well it’s an even year season so Nola should be much improved.
Yeah of Nola can keep it under 45 plus game crushing home runs allowed this season I’m with you.
Nola has regained his velocity from the 2024 season. He will have a good solid yeàr.
45 lol. Evidently you made a weak attempt at being funny, Sorry, but comedy isn’t working for you
The Phillies rotation is very clear. Sanchez is the #1, Luzardo #2, Nola #3, Walker #4 ( until Wheeler returns sometime in April), and Painter is #5. Wheeler has looked really good so far in his build – up. Walker will go to the bullpen when Wheeler returns. The Phillies have the best starting rotation in the National League. As was pointed out they have no depth whatsoever, other than Walker. None of the options such as Littell and Buehler wanted to sign with the Phillies because Wheeler is coming back early, and Painter will be a mainstay in the rotation.
Well we’ve been waiting long enough. It’s time for him to have proverbial put up or shut up moment. I have no problems with him making the roster and getting a shot to prove he has the goods.
Hopefully the kid never spends another day in the minors and has a stellar career. Love to see the next wave make an impact on baseball
I saw Painter in the minors a couple of times the season before he went to camp and was injured. I have seen a ton of minor league games over the years, and was simply awed by what he could be if he continued on the path.
The size and frame are prototypical for a starter; his easy velocity; breaking stuff was so far ahead of his age (19 at that time); his mechanics were simple and repeatable; his maturity and work ethic were already lauded. He was simply the best 19 year old that I have seen in person and it is exciting to see if he can live up to the potential. I loved Hamels and Nola as they were on the verge of the majors, but Painter was a rung above them as to his potential ceiling.
Painter? I barely knew her!
This was a no brainer after spring work. Walker to Pen after Wheels is back or do a 6 man. Barring injuries, starting pitching won’t make or break this team. It will be the offense and the pen.
Disagree – starting pitching has been the backbone of the team for a few years now. They actually do “make” the team, so if the offense and the pen can simply perform to reasonable levels they will be back in the playoffs again.
I tend to be an optimist a bit, but the pen should be stronger again this year and the offense should also be at the least equal to or better than last year…barring major injuries as the usual disclaimer.
I was trying to imply starting pitching will be solid and won’t be a concern. I’m much more concerned about the declining offense. Hopefully Garcia is a net gain. Kemp may also be ready to truly break out. We may see a lot more Otto this year. If these guys can all push JT into the 7 or 8 slot then we should be in good shape. This will be a more balanced lineup.
The rh bats of Kemp and Garcia are really important. At least one of them needs to be good. Bohm and Turner will be good, and J T does look like a #7/8 hitter now.
I am hoping Stott finally puts it all together. What we’re really lacking is a cleanup hitter. But, one way to solve that would be a Stott or a Crawford emerging as a leadoff guy. Suddenly, a lineup of Stott, Turner, Harper, Schwarber looks like something that can work. I just don’t know if he’ll ever hit lefties good enough for that and we know Sosa will never walk enough to accomplish that with a platoon.
Agreed @dary. FWIW Stott’s swing has looked like his old swing this spring. He’s shorter and more compact. His bat looked much slower the past two seasons. I’m hoping for a regression to his 1st full season when he looked like a potential batting champ.
They altered his hand position in his setup in late July last season and it made a huge difference for him.
This may be the best looking bullpen the Phillies have had in a long time.
If not for Tommy John his first Major league start would’ve probably come towards the end of 2024. He’s worked hard to get to this point and he obviously has nasty stuff. I’m really happy for him and I’m happy for Justin Crawford. I don’t remember the last time the Phillies had two guys from their system coming up in the same season.
If Painter hadn’t sustained the ucl injury in spring training in 2023, he was a favorite to make make the rotation at 19 years old, on opening day!!
Stick with Painter and let him learn the major leagues!
He has future ace potential!
He will be better than Walker both short and long term.
Well we do have depth, it’s actually Walker in the depth role he’s just starting for now before he returns to that role.
Like everyone else I’d rather it be someone else but realistically they weren’t going to spend.
6th man/ long relief is his ceiling so, and get ready to throw your beer cans at me, I’m actually ok with him if that’s his role.
Taj is a terrific 6th starter option – one simply has to forget about the contract. In the last season of his deal, he is a luxury that can be quite helpful for a team that wants to win.