Phillies manager Rob Thomson informed reporters, including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the rotation is set for the beginning of the season. Cristopher Sánchez will be the Opening Day starter, followed by Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo, Taijuan Walker and then Andrew Painter. Though Painter is on the 40-man roster, he will be making his major league debut when he takes the ball in that fifth game of the season.
It’s not a surprising outcome. Zack Wheeler is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and will begin the season on the injured list, as has been expected throughout the offseason. Without Wheeler, it has long seemed like the aforementioned five guys would start the season in the rotation, and that has indeed come to pass.
Though it’s not a stunning development, it’s an exciting debut nonetheless. Painter was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league, if not the very best. The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Painter posted a 1.56 earned run average in the minors in 2022, climbing as high as Double-A. It seemed possible he could break camp with the Phils in 2023 even though he would have been a couple of weeks away from his 20th birthday at that time.
Elbow issues popped up in March of that year and scuttled any chance of Painter making the club. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in July, which led to him missing the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons. He was back on the mound last year but wasn’t dominant. He was able to make 22 Triple-A starts and throw 106 2/3 innings but with a 5.40 ERA in those. His 23.4% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate were close to average.
The prospect shine isn’t quite as bright as it was a few years ago but Painter is still only 22, about to turn 23 next month, and has lots of future potential. Most top 100 prospect lists had him in the 25 to 50 range coming into this year, a drop from being a top ten guy a few years back but still a strong ranking. The Phils added him to the 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. In four starts this spring, he posted a 2.31 ERA, though with a somewhat lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate and a very low .188 batting average on balls in play.
The rotation mix will surely be in flux as the season progresses. Wheeler isn’t expected to be too far off. He is scheduled to pitch in a minor league game on Monday, per Lauber, Wheeler’s first official game action since his surgery. He will surely need a few weeks to build up but is entering the final stages of his recovery.
Unless the Phillies want to deploy a six-man rotation, they will need to bump someone out when Wheeler is back. Painter has a full slate of options and could be sent back to Triple-A. It’s also possible he out-pitches Walker, which could lead to Painter holding a rotation spot. Walker has been bumped to the bullpen in previous seasons, so it’s entirely possible that could happen again.
Since Painter is still a top 100 prospect and is cracking the Opening Day roster, that means he has a chance to benefit the Phillies via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. If he stays in the majors long enough to earn a full year of service time, then wins Rookie of the Year in 2026 or finishes top three in Cy Young voting in his pre-arbitration seasons, he would net the Phils a bonus draft pick in the future.
Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
Interesting
I was thinking he’d get more time in the minors
He has pitched well this ST. He earned the spot. Also getting further away from TJ surgery, he could be in for a big rookie year
Painter looked like a lock for 2025 debut. But he’ll get his chance in 2026.
Not much is clear after Sanchez and Luzardo. Is Wheeler healthy by May? Is it the good version of Nola or the 2025 version? Is Painter just solid or very good?
Well it’s an even year season so Nola should be much improved.
Well we’ve been waiting long enough. It’s time for him to have proverbial put up or shut up moment. I have no problems with him making the roster and getting a shot to prove he has the goods.
Hopefully the kid never spends another day in the minors and has a stellar career. Love to see the next wave make an impact on baseball
I saw Painter in the minors a couple of times the season before he went to camp and was injured. I have seen a ton of minor league games over the years, and was simply awed by what he could be if he continued on the path.
The size and frame are prototypical for a starter; his easy velocity; breaking stuff was so far ahead of his age (19 at that time); his mechanics were simple and repeatable; his maturity and work ethic were already lauded. He was simply the best 19 year old that I have seen in person and it is exciting to see if he can live up to the potential. I loved Hamels and Nola as they were on the verge of the majors, but Painter was a rung above them as to his potential ceiling.