With Opening Day just around the corner, the offseason is more or less complete for MLB’s 30 clubs and teams are now focused on the incoming season and being the team to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, however, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The AL Champion Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East yesterday with 39% of the vote. Today, we’ll be moving on to the AL Central. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Cleveland Guardians (88-75)
The Guardians managed to sneak their way into an AL Central title in the eleventh hour last year, overtaking the Tigers at the very end of the year thanks to a 20-7 September. They immediately got bounced from the playoffs by Detroit, however, and their response to that quick exit this postseason has left something to be desired. That seemed like a setup for a big offseason, but no such eventful winter occurred. Deserved as Jose Ramirez‘s latest extension may have been, it does nothing to improve the team for 2026. The only potential impact player the team has added anywhere on the roster is veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who is in camp on a minor league deal but is all but certain to make the team. More or less running back a roster that won 88 games last year isn’t the worst idea in the world, but it’s easy to feel as though last year’s division champs may have been overtaken by their rivals who made bigger splashes over the offseason.
Detroit Tigers (87-76)
The Tigers took the Mariners to Game 5 of the ALDS before falling just short, and now they’ll be looking to make the most out of what is likely to be Tarik Skubal‘s final season with the organization. A reunion with Gleyber Torres was the only big move on offense (although the impending debut of top prospect Kevin McGonigle could still transform the team’s lineup this year), but the Tigers were very active in overhauling their pitching staff. Framber Valdez joins Skubal at the front of the rotation and helps cushion the blow of losing Reese Olson to shoulder surgery, while Justin Verlander provides some mid-rotation stability in his homecoming at 43 years old. In the bullpen, the addition of a second future Hall of Fame veteran in Kenley Jansen and a reunion with Kyle Finnegan should create a solid back of the bullpen for a Tigers team that had the second-worst bullpen in the AL by FIP last year. Those additions seem likely to be enough to make the Tigers the favorite to finally claim the AL Central crown for the first time since 2014, though that also seemed likely to be the case last year.
Kansas City Royals (82-80)
The Royals had a middling season last year where they remained on the periphery of playoff relevance but never quite cracked the top tier of contenders. They wound up finishing just barely above .500, but will enter 2026 with hopes of a return to the postseason. Better health from Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic should go a long way for the club, as could the ascension of top prospect Carter Jensen as the heir apparent to franchise catcher Salvador Perez. In terms of external additions, the outfield will now feature Isaac Collins, Starling Marte, and Lane Thomas in addition to incumbents Jac Caglianone and Kyle Isbel, while Matt Strahm was brought in to fortify a high-leverage relief mix that already included Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg. With a handful of solid (if unspectacular) additions and an exciting young talent coming up from the minors, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals having a better year in 2026. Will that be enough to win the division?
Minnesota Twins (70-92)
2025 was a tough year for the Twins, as the organization was unable to lock down the sale both ownership and fans were hoping for off the field, while the team on the diamond struggled badly and wound up getting blown up at last summer’s trade deadline. Minnesota was saved from the basement of the AL Central by the lowly White Sox, but this offseason a change in control person, the hiring of a new manager, and the sudden departure of team president Derek Falvey led to instability at the top of the organization without much movement on the roster to show for it. Josh Bell and Victor Caratini are both solid complementary additions to the lineup, but neither makes up for the loss of Carlos Correa. A rotation that looked like the team’s strength lost Pablo Lopez before the season even began, while Taylor Rogers and others will be asked to save the bullpen after the losses of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louis Varland. There’s plenty of interesting young talent (Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Taj Bradley) on the roster, but a whole lot would have to go right for the Twins to fight their way back to the top of the AL Central this year.
Chicago White Sox (60-102)
The White Sox are still in the midst of what figures to be a lengthy rebuilding process, but more optimism can be found in the organization than has been the case for quite a while now. Young, impactful players like Shane Smith, Colson Montgomery, and Kyle Teel are beginning to establish themselves at the big league level, and the White Sox put in some effort to supplement that budding young core with external additions. Munetaka Murakami is the big addition who could easily add 40 home runs to the White Sox lineup if he pans out, but Anthony Kay, Sean Newcomb, and Seranthony Dominguez could all prove to be savvy additions to the roster as well on he pitching side. It would be a shock if these moves were enough to pull Chicago all the way to the top of the AL Central, but it seems possible that their days of losing 100 games a year are coming to a close.
Who do MLBTR readers think will win the division when all is said and done? Will the Guardians manage to come out on top for the third straight season despite virtually no additions? Will the Tigers finally break through in Skubal’s final season before free agency? Will the Royals’ busy offseason be enough to help them take a leap forward? Or will the Twins or White Sox shock the baseball world? Have your say in the poll below:
My unbiased opinion is that the Tigers will win the Central
Is this an actual question?
go ahead and underestimate cleveland again, theyll be in the playoffs as wc if they dont win the division again
I have been unbiased since 1982 and predicted them to win every year…even when they sucked 😉
And you predicted them to win every year 44 times in a row wow.
Delusional fan 😉
And now 45. All my respect to a true fan.
GoRoyals
Agreed 100%. I always pick the Rockies to win the division even though it has never happened. The reason is that I don’t want to be wrong when it finally does happen. It’s the same reason I always pick Kentucky to win the NCAA tourney. I can live with getting it wrong because I still get to root for my team regardless.
Detroit is definitely the team to beat. Added the most and has a top prospect waiting in the Wings. Kansas city could over perform, but I dont see them being better than Detroit.
This division is such a wash its hard to pick a winner. Detroit on paper is the likely favorite. Cleveland will be in the mix. Kansas City should be better. Chicago may surprise and be at least competitive compared to years past. You can’t really count out the Twins, but a lot would have to go very right for them to really be in it
I feel like it is the Tigers to lose, but they did blow it in spectacular fashion last year. If one of the other four beat up on their divisional opponents, they could pad their record enough to stay in the running.
Tigers. I feel like for the Royals to be in consideration they needed some more impact outfielders, but their pitching is good. I don’t know what to say about Minnesota and Chicago is still in the rebuild. Guardians will not be as good in 2026.
I think Tigers take it handily and KC will be fighting for a wild card. Unless the Guards have 5 ROY candidates I think they are toast but…I said that last year.
I don’t bet, but the Royals seem like a great pick here. They’re as good as anyone in this division, if not close, and I think might have the most helium of the group.
This is the Tribe’s year!
Cleveland has been saying this since 1949
I cannot answer the question just yet, but I do have it narrowed down to 5.
Teaser! Which five?
You’ll have to stay tuned to find out.
Arghhh! The suspense I tell ya…
Alright, well I will just toss you a bone here. I have reluctantly decided to eliminate the Savannah Bananas.
Do you think any of the Savannah Banana players are MLB caliber?
Probably not because if they were they would likely be in the majors. But they do have skills. It’s just like the Harlem Globetrotters. They have enough skills to look good against inferior competition, but would get exposed quickly against the best. But the Bananas are all about putting on a show, not really about showcasing the athletic pinnacle of the sport.
Yes and no, stros… yes in that they could be but no in that they aren’t!
Tigers seem like runaway favorites, so of course it will somehow be the Twins
Second easiest division to pick after the NL West. It’s the Tigers then a ton of mediocrity.
I think it will be another tight race this year. Tigers have to be the heavy favorites but hopefully it is fun to watch.
New season and everybody has a chance, except the Twins.
I’d like to think the White Sox contend this season, but I think they are still at least 1 season away. The combination of their young infield talent will have them contending for a good 5-6 years if Chris Getz does his job. By 2027, if they do not start targeting FA SP’s, then I will be concerned.
They have an ♾️ amount of arms in the farm not named Schultz and H Smith btw.
They’re at least 1 season away from starting to approach .500. They have little in the way of talent.
Sox will lose about 90 games this year, still a pretty bad team anyway you look at it
Once again the mlb establishment has underestimated Cleveland. Cleveland will embarrass the phony frontrunners once again as they win another division title without spending a dime. Detroit blew a wad and won’t get it done.
I would say bet on it, but maybe it is too soon after the whole Clase thing to say that.
The bullpen was actually better after Clase left last year, which is incredible. And none of the Cleveland sportswriters seem to be worried about it. The offense is the question mark. Starting pitching will also be better.
Rhys Hoskins ain’t gonna be enough dude.
Tigers edge out KC. Cleveland won’t win because they’re cheap and their fans are ghey.
Tigers this year Royals next year
Tigers win the AL Central. As long as we’re talking AL Central. My surprise team, the CWS. They won’t win the division or qualify for a playoff this season. But they’re on the right track. Dare I say an 82-80 season? Yes I do. Some good things happening with Southside baseball.
White Sox by 10 games.
PECOTA 3/20/26
Kansas City 85-77
Detroit 84-78
Minnesota 79-83
Cleveland 75-87
Chicago 69-93
Fangraphs 3/20/26
Detroit 86-76
Kansas City 81-81
Minnesota 78-84
Cleveland 76-86
Chicago 68-94
Interesting that Pecota has the Royals on top. They have good pitching.
BetMGM Win Totals
Tigers 85.5
Royals 82.5
Guardians 79.5
Twins 72.5
White Sox 67.5
I wonder how many projections show the Twins above the Guardians?
AL East was a way harder guess.
Detroit is and should be the favorite but Im going with the Guards.
Manzardo had a good second half, 27HRs to finish the season. A healthy Hoskins is going to slug and Chase De Lauter is 6’3 235lbs., he has some power too.
Alex Martinez had a good spring. Kwan and Martinez at the top of the lineup with four dangerous hitters in the middle. The Guards could hit a ton this year.
Depth in the rotation is lacking but they have prospects to deal at the deadline to add an impact starter.
I can’t confirm that Alex Martinez had a good spring but Angel Martinez certainly did…as if “good springs” even matter.
Angel was a horrific hitter against RHP last year and spectacular against LHP, which hardly makes him an impact player. He also was a miserable defender, lessening his value even more. Cleveland isn’t depending on him as a central contributor to another division title, that’s for sure.
What people are overlooking is that Cleveland won the division last year in spite of a league worst offense, the loss of Ortiz and Clase, and a lost year from most of its top prospects.
Fast forward a year and the young rotation has another year of experience under its belt, the rebuilt bullpen is looking pretty decent, and the team’s offense is incapable of being worse. Even a small bounce back in the team’s offensive numbers (the team was league average offensively in 2024) and this team will be in the mix for another division title in 2026.
Not that any national pundits, sports books, or computer models has ever picked them to win anything. But they generally win despite the shallow appraisals by naysayers, year after year.
They won’t win the division this year, but I really like the direction of the White Sox. Shane Smith, Kyle Teel, and Murakami form a nice core to bull around. My sleeper here is Anthony Kay, formerly a top prospect coming over to North America from a reset in Asia.
I’m going with the Tigers.
We’re all behind our baseball team, go get em Tigers ! That said they’ve been quiet at the plate this spring. One thing going for them they don’t ever seem to hang their heads after a game, so they have that. It looks like they will be grinding through the games. Hopefully they’ll find their groove early on, but if not they are kind of use to it.
Soon they’ll have designated cable channel, but if not I’m prepared to listen to the games fully on the radio, and catching the highlights later. This could be the opportunity to cancel cable t.v., who knows ? GO TIGERS !
We’ll see, I guess.
The Twins will win this thing, it’s just a certainly at this point. I can’t see anybody else getting close to then this year.
I like the Royals as much as Detroit or Cleveland. Witt and Garcia are studs, and I expect good seasons from Cags and Jensen. They got basically nothing from their OF last year, that even though I think they bought a pumpkin in Collins, Caglione alone should be able to push them to 85+ wins.
I expect itll come down to the end regardless of who wins.
3 team race with Tigers as the favorite. The Twins and White Sox will battle for the basement. With Shelton as manager the Twins have a clear edge to be there.
Tigers. I am looking more forward to drafting Roch Cholowsky as a Sox fan this year.
I’m a Tiger fan, but honestly, after Skubal and Valdez their starting pitching is iffier than many think. Verlander can be solid, or he can get hurt. I have not been high on either Mize or Flaherty. Both fall behind in way too many counts then get clobbered. It’s sort of axiomatic, but for those 2 guys “strike 1” is an absolute must. I duck every time they’re in a 3-2 count.
People really sleeping on the royals. Wbc set them up well.
Agree. As a Tigers fan, they concern me more than the other teams in the Central. Their pitching should be good, Witt is a stud and the Royals’ lineup is not easy to navigate.