I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag while he has some other commitments. In this week's installment, we'll get into the Mets' bullpen, the Reds' defense and lineup, Paul Skenes' looming arbitration eligibility, the Braves' rotation and Jurickson Profar (among various other tangents and side topics).
Sandy asks:
The Mets lineup seems solid and deep and their rotation is possibly top 5. That leaves the pen and defense. The D is probably average, maybe slightly below but serviceable. What is your take on their pen? Thanks!
The Mets' bullpen is close to set at this point. They have six starters entering the season (Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga), which leaves them seven bullpen spots. None of Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, Luis García or Bryan Hudson can be optioned. The Mets have already indicated that righty Huascar Brazobán will have a spot as long as he's healthy, and they similar indicated Tobias Myers would be in the group several weeks ago (before Myers posted a 1.86 ERA and 12-to-4 K/BB ratio in his first 9 2/3 spring frames).
The one spot that's up for grabs seems to be that of Hudson. The journeyman lefty was outstanding for the Brewers in 2024 but struggled in the majors both in 2023 and 2025. The Mets picked him up from the White Sox for cash last month. He's pitched 2 1/3 spring innings and allowed three runs on four hits (one homer) and a walk. It's not an especially compelling showing, particularly when factoring in last year's 4.80 ERA in the majors and 5.97 mark in Triple-A.
Beyond Hudson, candidates for that final spot who are still in major league camp include Richard Lovelady (who's on the 40-man roster), Craig Kimbrel (a non-roster invitee) and perhaps Austin Warren (also on the 40-man). There hasn't been much talk of Warren making the club among the Mets' beat, and he has an option remaining, so he's a long shot. Kimbrel has allowed two runs in five spring innings but also has five walks, two hit batters and only two strikeouts. The Mets seem to habitually acquire Lovelady and jettison him just as frequently; their recent waiver claim of the southpaw was the fifth time they've acquired him in the past calendar year. They clearly like him, but not enough to just give him a dedicated roster spot.
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Hey look, it’s Steve.
Didier Fuentes should be in the rotation
I am thinking the same thing. I wanted Ritchie, but Fuentes just seems to be making almost impossible for him to not be in the rotation.
Let Elder go and go with Fuentes!
I’m with the 6-man rotation in ATL to start the season. I’d prefer to carry some added innings on the bullpen arms and bridge to close it out stuff but that also means the team has to score.
13 straight games to open the season inc. a west coast swing (ARZ, LAA) could mean something of a 6-man rotation — or additional swing man (i.e. Suarez) in the ‘pen. This would allow them to do what they want to do and extend a final olive branch to one of the guys (Elder, Suarez) without options, rather than starting the clock on someone that’s clearly better (Ritchie). Fuentes’ clock has already been started and may be an easier call since they don’t have to find him a roster spot.
If they go with a 6-man rotation:
Sale
Strider
Lopez
Holmes
Fuentes
Elder
If they go with a 5-man rotation. Same rotation but let Elder be the long relief. I choose Fuentes at this point because his clock has already started, and he has been so dominating this spring. I feel he has earned the opportunity.
There is one minor logical fallacy to retaining pitching depth in the minors (re: JR Ritchie)—they’re still subject to the same injury pressures, more or less. Perhaps there is slightly less risk in Triple-A. Slightly…
When two pitchers are of similar quality, it makes sense to manage the depth with an eye toward maximizing control. But, if the evaluation on Ritchie is really a run-and-a-half better than Elder or Suarez, then you’re liable to be kicking yourself for choosing the former.
Building depth is massively underrated. But depth for its own sake isn’t the end goal. The Braves, unfortunately, have painted themselves into a corner with their (non)choices. Playing carefully and deliberately like the Dodgers might not be a viable option for them. From my viewpoint, they must be bold or else face witheringly long odds.
There our countless opportunities to acquire low-upside castaways. Most of them aren’t remarkably worse than Elder.
Your first paragraph isn’t true though. There is substantially less risk at AAA where he’d only be throwing once a week and would likely be on a pitch count. Yes he’s still throwing but the workloads would be drastically different on an arm that’s never thrown more than 75 innings in a season.
The research shows that injury rates are similar, but that MLB pitchers are more likely to experience major elbow and shoulder injuries. However, much of that can be linked to survivor bias—as in the players who experience major injuries have more mileage, and they are better pitchers. So, of course those use-based injuries are more common in the Majors.
Long story short, there is no evidence that using an individual prospect in the minors improves injury outcomes.
Top 5 rotation?
What r u smoking sandy
If Senga and Manaea go back to 2023 and 2024 form respectively, the rotation is pretty sick
That’s a big if
Still possible
I can see Senga possibly getting back to that form. Manea seems more unlikely
Kimbrel stinks now and I’ll be big mad if he makes the team due to reputation. Run Hudson or Lovelady until Minter is ready.
I would rather see if we can catch lightning in a bottle with Kimbrel then go to one of them if he is washed
That Braves’ rotation is concerning, to say the least. Even the guys who aren’t currently injured have big question marks – Sale (for obvious reasons), Lopez (will he be as effective pos-surgery), and Holmes (playing a risky game opting against surgery) are the “top 3” for now. That can get ugly quickly if even one of them gets injured.
Ritchie needs to be the 5th starter. Atlanta is wasting his bullets in the minors if they don’t realize that. With their organizational penchant for pitching injuries, it would be a disaster if Ritchie goes down with a serious injury playing in meaningless minor league games while the likes of Martin Perez and Carlos Carrasco are forced to make meaningful starts in the dog days of summer.
Some will say AA will trade for an ace if things go south, without realizing they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball that can’t even produce an adequate SS and played an entire season relying on Nick Allen.
@Fried
I agree with you to an extent. I would love to see Ritchie as the #5 starter for Atlanta, but I am really leaning more towards Fuentes at this point.
1) Fuentes’ clock has already been started.
2) As good as Ritchie has been this spring, Fuentes has been even better.
3) Either Fuentes or Ritchie allows Elder to be the long relief the first 2 weeks of the season.
Not a great situation for the Braves as far as the rotation is concerned. Aside from the obvious injury concerns Strider is no longer an ace…Lopez velocity drop along with injury risk?? …Holmes trying to pitch through his injury?? ..what will Schwellenbach and Waldrep look like when/if they get back?? Braves success could hinge on lots of innings from Elder, Ritchie and Fuentes….could go a lot of different ways…
Agree completely that the Tigers did not lowball Skubal. But don’t see how the Skubal precedent is relevant to Skenes’ first arbitration. Skubal had five years of MLB service; in his first arbitration year next season, Skenes will have three. If players in their third year of service and first year of arbitration can receive arbitration awards based on the best players at their position then the arbitration system is completely broken — at least for star quality players — and the system will likely have to be renegotiated in the new CBA.
I’m skeptical he tries it, but the reason Tim and I ran it by a pair of different arbitration specialists with different (non-Skenes/Skubal) agencies was to see if it was even possible, under the current CBA language.
Tim is more open than I am to the idea of Skenes trying to shatter any and all precedent by invoking that clause as an Arb1 guy (rather than Skubal as an Arb3). The language seems to suggest that an arb panel is required to consider free agent comps if an Arb3 (or Super Two Arb4) has “special” enough accomplishments. The second paragraph I pasted from the CBA more implies that “Yeah, an Arb1 guy could try this, but it’s up to the panel to decide if it’s even a valid argument and they’re not required to consider it.”
I’m generally of the mind that they’ll move the Arb1 precedent forward by a few million, whereas Tim thinks if Skenes has another Top 3 Cy finish (and certainly if he wins a second one) that he should push for $20MM+.
It’s a fun but very theoretical debate.
Of course, it hinges entirely on whether the next CBA makes any changes to the process and also on Skenes’ own risk tolerance, neither of which we can know from here. Even if the status quo remains, Skenes might prefer to simply move the needle forward for future aces and land, say, $10-11MM, rather than go for $20MM+ and “risk” an arbitration panel siding with a more conventional $8MMish figure from the team. That’d cost him millions and also be a missed opportunity to substantially move the needle for future arbitration classes. Lots to consider!
I don’t see much downside risk for Skenes trying it if his agent (ISE) thinks it’s a plausible strategy. If it isn’t a plausible strategy then the difference between the Pirates bid and Skenes’ ask is not that great and all he would be risking is that spread, which he might not get anyway. And if Skenes was going in asking for $20 million, the Pirates might be inclined to make a bid like the Tigers: not nearly as high as $20 million, but higher than one might expect under existing precedent. As an example, MLBTR predicted a $17.8 million award for Skubal, but Tigers came in meaningfully higher than that at $19 million. I don’t think it is a plausible strategy, but it may not hurt to try it.
Braves are just another injury away from being screwed pitching wise. I see people calling to release Elder but I don’t think that would be wise unless his arm falls off.
They want Elder released because they hate him and think they have a shiny new toy in Fuentes. Most people seem to forget that he had a horrible debut last year; having two good workouts changes nothing.
Braves are on the Korean BBQ Grill right now. What happens if Sale goes down?
Next man up. Fuentes and/or Ritchie.
You could literally say that about every team’s ace!
Yes, it would be nice to have more depth, but they also need depth that has experience and minor league options available. That is what the Braves don’t have. Elder and Suarez are both out of options
“You can say that about any team’s ace”
To an extent. There’s higher risk for someone with Sale’s injury history. Atlanta’s lack of depth also plays into the equation here. If Sale goes down and Strider repeats last year’s performance… Atlanta would be cooked.
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