MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! We’ll get started at 1pm CT, but feel free to send me questions ahead of time, as always.
• Let’s get underway!

All By Metself

• What kind of contract can Skubal be expected to get? Will he clear 10/400?

Steve Adams

• The years depend on who’s signing him, I suppose. Some clubs prefer to spread the money over a longer term (Phillies), others are more comfortable with mammoth AAVs on shorter terms (Dodgers, Mets).I’m going to take the over on 400 right now (probably over a long term, but if the Mets want to offer like some insane $50MM AAV to keep the term down a couple years, not much shocks me at this point)

Jimmy Chop

• Huge O’s fan here. I don’t know how the Orioles can go into the season with Alonso, Mountcastle, and Mayo — all right-handed hitters and 1B/DH only types — on the roster. (Mayo is not a third baseman; I wish he was, but umm, no.) What gives? Send Mayo down to AAA (last option year), trade Mayo, cut Mountcastle (no real trade value)? I suppose, the path of least resistance is to send Mayo down, but goodness the club hasn’t been very good to him. Your thoughts good sir. Thank you.

Steve Adams

• I’m still surprised they tendered a contract to Mountcastle. Something feels like it has to give there eventually, but perhaps not immediately. Mayo’s going to get a real look at 3B. I know he hasn’t looked great there in the past, but it’s been a recent focus for him and he’ll spend all spring working on it. They don’t have great alternatives — at least not if you want a 3B that can also hit some. If it’s a bust, they can try to address it midseason.For now, I’d assume you’ve got Alonso and Mayo in the lineup every day. Mayo at 3B regularly, Alonso playing primarily 1B with some occasional DH reps. Mountcastle will get some 1B reps those days. Samuel Basallo will get DH/1B/C reps. It’ll be matchup dependent, and I doubt either Basallo or Mountcastle gets true everyday ABs. Blaze Alexander can play some 3B, too, when the O’s want to get Jeremiah Jackson into the lineup.

  It’s messy, but there are probably enough at-bats to go around. Alonso is really the only one who’s proven he merits everyday work anyhow

Ruh Roh Renfroe

• Can I take Profar’s spot in the Atlanta OF for 2026?

BravesFan

• What options do the Braves have now that Profar has yet again failed a PED test? I’m sure trades at this point are few and far between.

Cards

• Nootbaar to the Braves?

To ATL

• How ’bout that Profar? Oof.

Steve Adams

• Lots and lots of questions along these lines.
• I don’t think they need to add a regular outfielder. They already signed Yastrzemski, and they can go Yaz-Harris-Acuna and feel decent about the group. Yaz needs a platoon partner, and as I noted in the post on Profar’s suspension, they don’t have a good one right now. Eli White and Jorge Mateo hit right-handed but have poor lifetime numbers against lefties.I immediately wondered whether Andrew McCutchen as a part-time DH/LF might make sense. He could be lifted for White/Mateo late in games (or just serve as a DH against LHP with White starting in LF).

  The more pressing need for me is still on the pitching side. I don’t know how they look at this windfall and don’t use it on Giolito or Littell. This will be a good test of whether they actually just don’t think those guys are upgrades (as they’ve at least indirectly signaled) or whether they just didn’t have the funds to sign either prior to Profar’s latest buffoonery.

YanksNYC

• Seems like Yanks aren’t planning to invest in Chisholm long term. Doesn’t it make sense to trade him now, when value is high? They could balance the lineup with a Jazz-for-Nico deal, or trade Jazz to HOU in a three-team deal that nets Paredes. What say you?

Steve Adams

• Hoerner and Jazz are both one-year guys, so not sure that really makes sense. Sending Jazz to Houston and getting Paredes back still leaves the Astros with more infielders than spots to play them.A lot of fans seem aghast at the idea of a contending team losing a free agent for “only” the draft pick associated with a QO — hence the incessant Skubal speculation, which has never seemed plausible — but the Yankees are always in clear win-now mode. Trading Chisholm because he’s a free agent in eight months isn’t likely to make their 2026 club better

Phils Thine Horn

• Do Phillies actually add a starting pitcher of note or just fringe until Painter is ready?

Steve Adams

• Dave Dombrowkski (their president of  baseball ops) has pretty much said publicly that they’re not looking at established guys. They won’t have a spot for them once Wheeler is healthy (assuming everyone else avoids injury).They’re more looking for optionable depth types they could acquire, hence the recent minor league deal for Connor Gillispie. I have to think they’ll try to add someone who’s DFA’ed in a small trade at  some point, but I don’t think they’re going to sign Giolito, Littell, Tyler Anderson, etc. unless they incur another rotation injury.

Doc Metal

• In what order would you rank these – Eldridge, Condon, Justin Crawford? Thanks!

Steve Adams

• For what? Fantasy? Future value? 2026 impact?I’d probably err toward Crawford long-term value-wise, just because the floor is higher based on his speed and defense. He’s probably the least impactful from a fantasy standpoint though, total upside considered.

  Crawford feels likelier to be an average or better big leaguer to me than the other two, but Eldridge has the highest overall ceiling (with less floor because  of his 1B/DH status and more strikeouts).

Rules committe

• should the PED punishments be updated to 1 year for first positive and lifetime ban for second? Seems it’s not enough of a deterrent

Steve Adams

• Based on Profar alone? There’s been one other PED suspension in the past year (Jose Alvarado). PED bans have plummeted since the punishments were upped to 80, 162 and lifetime.
• I don’t think one guy being a knucklehead means the whole system is a failure.

SoxFan

• Trade idea:  Benintendi to the Braves, White Sox pick up half the remaining contract and the Sox receive a prospect for the OF.  This would help the Braves with DH and LF, say what you will but Benintendi hit 20 HR’s the past 2 seasons.

Steve Adams

• Eating half of Benintendi’s contract isn’t getting anyone to bite on him.
• And the Braves already have a LHH OF to step into the Profar void. They signed Mike Yastrzemski early in the winter.

charlie tuna

• Thanks Steve. Who do you think comes in second in the NL West and what was the first CD you ever bought?

Steve Adams

• Padres for me.
• Superunknown, by Soundgarden
• Incredible record to this day

Ben

• What’s your read on Wyatt Langford? Taking a step to superstardom? Or just an above average regular?

Steve Adams

• He’s already really, really good. Borderline star level. I’d lean toward stardom — but maybe not superstardom? Can I take that answer? Haha. I think “superstar” is reserved for like … Ohtani, Judge, Skubal, etc. But Langford also seems like he’s going to be better than the “above-average regular” moniker.Multi-time All-Star, a handful of seasons with some down-ballot MVP votes, but not a perennial MVP contender?

  I suppose everyone’s description of that outcome is going to vary, so let’s just say I think Langford’s already very, very good and going to be great.

Sam

• Littell and Giolito wait to sign after Opening Day at this point? Or do you think they find homes before then?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll sign before then. I’d be surprised if they’re out there more than a week at this point.

Paredes

• Are the Astros really going to sit on Paredes, and will it really just take a left-handed OF to snag him? Griffin Conine come on down….

Steve Adams

• I don’t think they’re going to move him for the first LHH OF someone offers up, haha. No disrespect to Conine, but that trade isn’t happening.
• If the goal were to just get ANY lefty hitting OF, the move would’ve been made by now. I lean toward a spring trade, but I also think the logjam/surplus narrative is overstated. When was the last time Yordan Alvarez and Carlos Correa stayed healthy for months at a time?
• One injury and the whole thing is pretty smoothly worked out. I’m sure Paredes would prefer to have an everyday role, which is understandable, but I don’t think it’s some sort of disaster if they have all these veterans heading into the season. The “it’ll work itself out” cliche probably sounds tired to Houston fans who want to see a move come together, but it’s a cliche for a reason! It probably will work itself out. Dudes get hurt a lot — especially Yordan, unfortunately :((Said both as a fan of dudes who hit giant home runs and someone who owned Alvarez for years in a now-defunct keeper league haha)

Jays in 43 MLB parks

• Who would want Berrios or do Jays wait until a team has a significant starter go down for the year?

Steve Adams

• No one’s taking the 3/66 left on his deal. They’re “stuck” with him. (Which isn’t necessarily all that bad …. he’s still a decent pitcher, just not a $22MM-per-for-three-years pitcher)

Brian

• Any sleeper picks this year?  Miami?  Pittsburgh?  My Orioles should be much better……

Steve Adams

• I’m not sure the Pirates count as one since they’ve had a decent offseason and have all that vaunted young pitching, but they’re a decent one. Can I count the A’s?

GruberChops

• Kuzuma Okamoto ends up with a higher WAR this season then Bo. You taking the over or under.

Steve Adams

• Comfortably taking Bo

MKE Fan

• Why is everyone picking Milwaukee to finish 3rd or 4th in the Central? Have people not learned over the last 10 years?!

Steve Adams

• I would say because no, they have not learned. I have Milwaukee second in the NLC right now and my consistent caveat has been that they’ll make me feel stupid for it.

Farhan’s kid sister

• With Gavin Stone maybe not ready by Opening Day, any chance the Dodgers decide to sign Giolito or Littell? Yeah, I get the fact that they have an embarrassing wealth of arms to pick from on their 40 man roster but this is the Dodgers we are talking about. Seems possible that they could say, “hey we have money, why not sign another starter for insurance?”

Steve Adams

• I don’t think they’d consider either enough of an upgrade over the in-house arms.

Sue Shi

• Where do you see Zack Littell landing?  Simply amazed he is still available with his track record.

Steve Adams

• I’m not all that surprised. He only has 2+ seasons as a starter. He sits 90-92 mph with his heater in a velocity-obsessed MLB climate and has well below-average strikeout and swinging-strike rates. He’s a fourth/fifth starter, which teams are never going to break the bank for. If he went out looking for three-plus years, I can see why teams backed off.If I have to guess, at this point, I would pick the Braves and Twins to sign Littell and Giolito (flip a coin as to which lands where). But one injury somewhere else can always change that. (Or one PED suspension; five hours ago, I would not have picked Atlanta to sign one of them since I assumed their budget was largely maxed out)

Mr. Keeper

• Who has the better fantasy season between R. Laureano and J. Marsee?

Steve Adams

• I’ll take Marsee

Detroit Fanatic

• Will Torkelson hit 40rs this year?

Steve Adams

• And I will take the under on that

Don’t call me Frankie

• Lindor: hall of famer in your eyes?

Steve Adams

• Easily, yes.

jh

• 1. Steven Kwan 2.Yandy Diaz 3.Jose Ramirez 4.Junior Caminero 5.Nick Kurtz……I know hindsight is 20/20 but if not for a couple bone headed moves by the FO, this could be the best top 5 line up in MLB as opposed to the 28th worst offensive in baseball.

Steve Adams

• You can Monday Morning QB anyone’s lineup like this.We can’t assume Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero would be the same hitters in Cleveland that they are in Tampa Bay, working with a player development staff that clearly seems to do a better job with hitters than they do in Cleveland.

  This also gives them no credit for taking Kwan in the fifth round. They could’ve taken James Outman (who went a round later) or any of the dozens of guys who never reached the majors after they selected Kwan.

  Kurtz vs. Bazzana is too early to judge, and while I’m certainly taking Kurtz if given the opportunity right now, there are scenarios where they end up being close or Bazzana even ends up more valuable

  Besides, it’s not as though everyone thought Kurtz was the slam-dunk best option there and they bucked consensus by going Bazzana.

• Any fan of any team can drive themselves crazy by going back through drafts and wondering what could’ve been if they’d just made the “right” choice in hindsight.

Guest

• E. Suarez finally crosses the 50 Homer Run mark. You taking the over/under/exact?

Steve Adams

• I’d take the under on 40, let alone 50. No disrespect to him, but he’s only topped 40 twice and will turn 35 next July

Colson Montgomery

• 35+ HR’s and 200K’s possible?

Steve Adams

• Yes to both. Strikeouts probably likelier than the homers though, ha

Kyle

• The Brewers trading away their best pitcher from a season ago with the best record in baseball,  are they trying NOT to win the division this year??   Your thoughts

Steve Adams

• It’s just how they always operate. They also traded a pair of All-Star closers while contending (Hader, Williams) and another former ace off the back of a winning season (Burnes). The Brewers are good every year despite having no money from ownership precisely because they avoid getting sentimental and hanging onto guys to run out their contention window.When it comes to a team like Milwaukee, I get the idea of biting the bullet and trading Peralta. Ownership was probably never going to pay market value to keep him.

  It’s different (for me anyway) when it’s a Skubal situation or the Jazz Chisholm one someone asked about earlier. The Yankees can easily pay Jazz if they want to keep him and can add another high-end 2B if he walks.

  Tigers are a bit different since Skubal’s price will be SO huge, but they have basically no long-term money on the books and have run payroll up to the 200 range in the past, so I don’t think they should be treated with the same “well they’ll never pay him” approach

Rangers13

• Would E Duran be enough for Jo Jo Romero?

Steve Adams

• Not with the way he’s hit (or rather, hasn’t hit) for the past two seasons.

Tyler O’Neil

• Do I keep my opening day homer streak alive?

Steve Adams

• My favorite and most nonsensical streak in sports. I certainly hope so, though I can’t in good conscience say it’s a good bet to say he will, haha.

Guest

• Who will be the best player going forward: Bobby Witt Jr. or Ella De La Cruz?

Steve Adams

• Love Elly but easy BWJ here for me.

Kurtz on 1st

• Who’s closing for my squad?

Steve Adams

• Doubt they have a set guy early on. Feels like it’ll be a committee until someone separates.

JeffyM82

• Eloy Jimenez has been tearing it up in spring training.  Any chance he makes the Jays?  Can they option him to AAA without having to pass him through waivers?

Steve Adams

• It’s 18 PAs. I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. He cannot be optioned if they select him to the 40-man, no.

Mariners fan

• if Colt continues to impress, Cole holds onto second…. Does Donovan become ultimate utility?

Steve Adams

• Yeah, he’d probably just play more OF than INF in that spot, with occasional appearances at 3B/2B/DH. He could be a backup for Naylor at 1B, too, and even Crawford at SS. He has over 100 big league innings at both positions. Doubt they’d want him there long term, but if Naylor needs to go to the 10-day IL or something, they could go with Donovan (even though it’d probably be Raley first)

StuckIn LF

• Hi thanks for the chat. Question: is Mark Vientos odd man out in Queens?  Doesn’t have a place on the diamond and his development would be capped as a part time DH. Would the Mets be better off trading him? And does he have much value?

Steve Adams

• Trade wouldn’t surprise me, but there are enough possible ABs to grab that I don’t think it’s a lock or anything. Baty still really only has a few months as a productive MLB regular. Polanco has a long injury history and is just now learning 1B.They could probably find a way to make it all work, but if someone’s offering up a good reliever with options who can deepen the ‘pen, I’d consider it.

Mozman

• Cards fan can be happy about what?

Steve Adams

• JJ Wetherholt?

Chaim

• Is Lars Nootbaar a legit trade candidate for the Cards? Considering he’s getting a bit older & could help the rebuild if he’s moved.

Steve Adams

• Yeah but I think more midseason. He’s coming off the double heel surgery and I don’t think there’s a huge market/demand right now, save for the Astros maybe.

Albernaz

• Over/under 15th (or just use the MLB average) for Orioles rotation ERA?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll be better than the median but not by a particularly wide margin.

Don

• Would Giolito at 1/12 and McCutchen at 1/3 make sense to replace Profar

Steve Adams

• Yup

John

• Why is fangraphs so low on the Padres? Projected 79 wins and 23% chance to make playoffs.

Steve Adams

• Poor depth, particularly in the rotation. They added a bunch of guys recently, but hard to be all that confident in Marquez, Canning, Buehler or Gonzales — and Vasquez was already a below-average option

Brook

• Assuming the Yankees bench will be Escarra, Rosario, Goldy and Grichuk….who gets sent packing when Volpe returns?  Rosario?

Steve Adams

• Someone else will probably just be hurt by then

Just a Fan

• Who reaches 500 career HR first? Trout or Harper? They both debuted at age 19. Trout is now 34 and Harper 33. Over the last 6 years, Trout has hit 129 HR and Harper 134. Trout has 404 career HR and Harper 363.

Steve Adams

• I find it depressing to say I’d probably choose Harper. I love both players, but Trout hasn’t surpassed 130 games since 2019 or 140 since 2016.

Rick

• What are the DBacks thinking?  They pass on an inexpensive all purpose outfielder in Lane Thomas, then elect to pass on other relatively inexpensive 1st basemen, ie. Goldy, Francis, Bell, etc and up with a 40 year old, 200 hitter in Santana?

Steve Adams

• Lane Thomas has been terrible since the Guardians traded for him and has been more of a platoon guy than a regular even prior to that. (The Nats used him regularly, but all the production was versus LHP)Santana still beat up lefties (same as Goldy) until last season and is one of the better defenders in the game at first base, even at 40.

  I don’t think passing on Thomas when they had other more pressing needs or on Goldy/France/Bell is all that glaring. I’d like to see a more exciting 1B option there, sure, but an eventual Santana/Pavin platoon could be just fine productivity-wise

The Knuder

• The MLBPA is challenging Profar’s suspension. I can’t recall them ever challenging a PED suspension. Without me looking it up, has it happened before, and have they ever successfully overturned a PED suspension or gotten it reduced?

Steve Adams

• I’m not clear that this is any different than a standard appeal. I haven’t looked into it yet. But in terms of appeals reducing suspensions, sure. It’s happened. Michael Pineda was dropped from 80 to 60 a few years ago. The Royals recently had someone whose suspension was reduced, I believe.It’s rare, but not unprecedented.

Chris

• Is Trea Turner an under the radar candidate for the HOF?  It’s definitely feasible he accrues 20-25 more WAR in his career (putting him in the low to mid 60s) and ends up with about 2500-2700 hits.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s all that under-the-radar. He’s 32, signed for eight more years and already well north of 40 WAR — close to 50 if you go by fWAR. He’s going to shatter 2000 hits, top 300 homers and 500 steals. He’s on a pretty clear and obvious trajectory there, in my eyes.
• Alright, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions and analysis from the MLBTR team, you can sign up for our Trade Rumors Front Office package, which gets you ad-free viewing (online and in app), two weekly subscriber-only chats, weekly subscriber-only articles and mailbags, fantasy advice, access to our Contract Database, Agency Database and GM Tracker — and more.

  Have a good week, everyone! Enjoy the spring games and the WBC!