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The Mariners Need To Shake Up Their Offense

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Mariners fans entered the season with something of a sour outlook on the 2025 season. That's understandable, given an offseason in which the front office was clearly handcuffed by payroll limitations and a paper-thin trade market for big league hitters. Armed with a only a reported $15-16MM to patch over multiple needs in the infield, there wasn't a lot out there for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander to realistically pursue.

Seattle wound up rolling the dice on a handful of cost-effective infield options. Jorge Polanco returned on a one-year deal with a conditional player option. Donovan Solano snagged a $3.5MM guarantee. Rowdy Tellez signed a minor league deal and made the team after a big spring showing (.298/.320/.574 in 50 plate appearances).

Frustration was understandable. The Mariners had made a big splash at the prior deadline, reeling in Randy Arozarena from the Rays, but fans hoping for a similarly bold strike in the offseason after another narrow playoff miss were left wanting.

That frustration likely faded for many as the Mariners raced out to a blistering start. On May 7, they sat with a 22-14 record, leading the American League West by a three-game margin and sporting a +31 run differential. One might imagine that the Mariners were again being carried by their brilliant rotation, but that wasn't the case -- at least not entirely. George Kirby has still yet to throw a pitch in 2025 as he recovers from some shoulder inflammation. Logan Gilbert hit the injured list on April 25 and remains there. Bryan Woo has been brilliant. Luis Castillo has been good. Gilbert was his typically excellent self prior to his flexor injury. But the Mariners' starting pitching, as a whole, has been a middle-of-the-pack unit.

Instead, Seattle's hot start was largely attributable to a surprisingly potent offense. Through that previously mentioned May 7 date, M's hitters were slashing .247/.340/.415, resulting in a 122 wRC+ that ranked third in the majors. They were fourth in home runs, seventh in runs scored, 12th in batting average, second in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging percentage.

In the week-plus since that time, the Mariners have lost five of six games and posted a collective .206/.259/.326 batting line (70 wRC+). Typically, there's little sense panicking over a week of poor results, but there was already reason to be a bit skeptical of Seattle's sudden offensive prowess. Good as Cal Raleigh is, he's not going to continue at a 50-homer pace. Polanco isn't going to keep his OPS north of 1.000. J.P. Crawford isn't sustaining a .410 OBP, nor will Leo Rivas keep hitting .341. Those timely early-season hot streaks buoyed the Seattle offense but can't all be sustained.

The Mariners seemingly recognize that some new blood is needed; they claimed Leody Taveras off waivers from the division-rival Rangers and took on about $3.7MM in salary to do so. That was an understandable move with both Victor Robles and Luke Raley on the injured list for the foreseeable future, but it shouldn't be the only one the Mariners consider.

Let's run through a few easy ways to bolster a lineup that is facing even more pressure than usual now that Bryce Miller has joined rotation-mates Kirby and Gilbert on the injured list...

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Rays Have Previously Expressed Interest In Harry Ford

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The Rays have previously expressed interest in Mariners catching prospect Harry Ford, according to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. There is no indication that Tampa’s interest in the youngster is current or that there are any ongoing trade negotiations between the two clubs.

Ford, 22 in February, was Seattle’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-50 prospect in the game. He’s managed to hit well at every level of the minors he’s been exposed to from the moment he kicked off his pro career with a .291/.400/.582 slash line in 19 rookie ball games shortly after being drafted. He made the jump to full season ball in 2022 and found success there as well, slashing .274/.425/.438 at the Single-A level in 2023 before posting a nearly identical .257/.410/.430 slash line at High-A the following year. During both of his stops in A-ball, Ford floated walk rates north of 17% while while flashing 10-to-15 homer power. Most interestingly, he showed off very impressive wheels for a catcher and flashed 25-steal speed on the basepaths.

The youngster hit his first real roadblock in 2024 upon reaching the Double-A level. In his age-21 campaign this past year, Ford hit a solid but unspectacular .249/.377/.367, which was good for a 119 wRC+ at the level. Ford’s 14.1% walk rate remained impressive and he reached new heights on the bases with 35 steals, but his power output cratered as he swatted just seven homers in 523 trips to the plate. Even that relative down season was still noticeably above average relative to his league, however, and that feat is all the more impressive given the fact that Ford was one of just five qualified hitters in the Double-A Texas League who played the 2024 season at age-21 or younger.

While Ford’s bat is generally very well regarded, there are some questions about whether or not he’ll be able to stick behind the plate. Ford’s athleticism has drawn plenty of praise, but he’s a well below average fielder behind the plate at the moment which has led some to suggest he might follow in the footsteps of Daulton Varsho, who was also an athletic and speedy catching prospect through the minor leagues but moved to the outfield early in his big league career. For the time being, however, the Mariners appear poised to continue developing his skills behind the plate.

Given the Rays’ interest in Ford, it seems likely they too believe in his ability to stick behind the plate. Tampa’s needs behind the plate entering the offseason were well-known as they not only lacked a clear complement to Ben Rortvedt at the big league level for 2025 but also have no catching prospects of particular note currently coming through their pipeline. A look at MLB.com’s Top 30 Rays prospects list reveals just two catchers: catching convert Dominic Keegan ranks 13th, while 19-year-old J.D. Gonzalez ranks 27th despite having hit just .161/.268/.198 in his first taste of stateside baseball this past season.

Swinging a deal for Ford would do little to improve the club’s short-term catching situation given the fact that he’s not yet reached the Triple-A level and is still considered very raw behind the plate defensively. With that being said, the Rays already addressed their immediate need at catcher by signing Danny Jansen to a one-year deal, slotting him in ahead of Rortvedt in the club’s catching tandem. That leaves the club fairly set behind the plate for 2025, but those questions figure to come up once again when Jansen departs for free agency a year from now. Adding a top catching prospect like Ford who’s around a year away from the majors would make some sense for the Rays, then, allowing Jansen to serve as a bridge to the future of the position this year.

Even as Ford still makes sense as a potential trade target for the Rays, however, it’s fair to wonder how likely a deal coming together is even if Tampa remains interested in the young catcher. The Mariners are well known to be in the market for infield help this winter, having previously spoken to the Cubs and Phillies about Nico Hoerner and Alec Bohm. Those talks haven’t appeared to gain much traction, which makes pivoting to a Rays infielder like Yandy Díaz or Brandon Lowe at least theoretically feasible for Seattle.

With that being said, Diaz and Lowe figure to be key cogs in a Rays lineup that struggled to create runs last year, and with no apparent need to cut payroll further after dealing Jeffrey Springs to the A’s it’s unclear whether either player would even be available this winter. Perhaps a deal could be worked out involving a less-established Rays infielder like Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead, or Osleivis Basabe, but it’s unclear whether the Mariners would be interested in adding a youngster of that variety or are more focused on established players with a big league track record.

MLB Announces Futures Game Rosters

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Major League Baseball announced rosters for the 2023 Futures Game this evening. The contest — a seven-inning exhibition between some of the sport’s most talented minor leaguers — kicks off All-Star festivities in Seattle on Saturday, July 8.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes, 28 of the 50 players on the roster are included on MLB Pipeline’s recent Top 100 prospects list. Six of Pipeline’s top ten will participate. The full rosters (MLB Pipeline prospect rank included, if applicable):

American League

National League

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford

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The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA

Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.

Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380

Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA

From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.

Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA

Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.

Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410

The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.

Three More

Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.

Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.

Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Mariners Sign Top Three Draft Picks

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7:40PM: The Mariners have also signed second-round shortstop Edwin Arroyo and third-round right-hander Michael Morales to above-slot deals, according to Mayo (Twitter links).  The 48th overall pick has an assigned price of $1,543,600, but Arroyo (a Florida State commit) signed for $1.65MM.  Morales had been committed to Vanderbilt, but he’ll now begin his pro career after seeing to a $1.5MM bonus that is more than double the $733.1K slot price for the 83rd overall pick.

3:54PM: The Mariners have agreed to sign 12th overall pick Harry Ford, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo reports (via Twitter).  Ford signed for $4,366,400, matching the slot value assigned to his pick.

Ford is an 18-year-old high school catcher from Georgia, and he’ll now begin his pro career after being originally committed to attend Georgia Tech.  Ford was the consensus choice as the draft’s second-best catching prospect, behind only Henry Davis (who went to the Pirates as the first overall pick).  Draft pundits all had Ford within roughly the same range on their rankings, with The Athletic’s Keith Law placing Ford highest at eighth, while Baseball America was comparatively the lowest at 17th.

While Ford was drafted as a catcher, there is some doubt he’ll remain at the position — not necessarily due to a lack of ability behind the plate, but rather because Ford is a good enough athlete to potentially fit at multiple other positions.  Ford has 60-grade speed and also a plus throwing arm that some scouts feel could make him a possible future option as a center fielder.  At the plate, Ford has excellent bat speed and is very strong, making him a good candidate for more power potential in the future.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

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The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
Show all

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