Poll: Which Recent Cubs Extension Will Age Better?

The Cubs have made a huge splash on the extension front over the past week by locking up a pair of their core position players long-term. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and second baseman Nico Hoerner have signed extensions that will keep them in Chicago through the end of the 2032 season. It’s an exciting development for fans on the North Side. With the team’s recent addition of Alex Bregman plus players like Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson already under long-term control, the Cubs now have a core of position players to build around for the next several years.

That came at a price. Crow-Armstrong’s deal guarantees him $115MM and could climb another $18MM based on his MVP finishes. Hoerner’s deal is even more substantial, guaranteeing him $141MM (although deferred money lowers the net present value slightly to $137.5MM). Those are significant investments and big bets on the pair to continue performing after they turned in career years in 2025. Which one is more likely to live up to those expectations?

The case for Crow-Armstrong is one rooted in his youth and massive upside. His season-long stats in 2025 (including a 109 wRC+, 31 homers, 35 steals, and 6.0 bWAR/5.4 fWAR) could be argued to actually register as a bit of a disappointment based on what he did in the first half, when he was a legitimate early contender for the NL MVP award. 25 of those home runs and 27 of those steals came before the All-Star break, at which point he was slashing a sensational .265/.302/.544. A deep slump throughout August and September raised some concerns, however, as he hit just .188/.237/.295 over the season’s final two months. Crow-Armstrong’s speed and defense are enough to make him a viable major league player even when he’s flirting with the Mendoza line, but he’ll need to do a lot better than that to justify a nine-figure deal.

Can he find the consistency necessary to make the deal a good one? There’s certainly reasons to think so. While Crow-Armstrong struggled in terms of results down the stretch last year, he actually improved his plate discipline somewhat. His 35.6% out-of-zone swing rate and 86.2% in-zone contact rate since August 1 were both better than his season-long figures of 41.9% and 84.0%, respectively. Crow-Armstrong’s struggles late in the 2026 campaign were more about a power outage than an increase in poor swing decisions. If he can carry those improved swing decisions into the future while tapping into his first-half power, he’ll be a superstar. If his first-half power surge proves to be more of a flash in the pan than something sustainable, it’s possible the Cubs could wind up regretting the deal.

By contrast, Hoerner is a much more consistent player with a well-established track record. Since becoming an everyday player in 2022, Hoerner has hit .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) overall. He’s been remarkably consistent year-to-year, as well. His wRC+ has always fallen between 102 and 109, and he’s stolen at least 20 bases every season. After injury woes early in his career, he’s become a reliable presence on the field with at least 640 plate appearances in each of the past three years. He pairs that consistency and availability with superb defense that’s won him two Gold Gloves at the keystone and allowed him to post between 3.8 and 4.8 fWAR (3.7 and 6.2 bWAR) in each of his seasons as a regular.

That profile also comes with limited offensive upside, however. If there’s another gear to Hoerner’s game, it could be proving that his career-best 7.6% strikeout rate from 2025 is repeatable. Hoerner has a career strikeout rate of just 11.0%, so he’s a good bet to make contact at an elite rate in any year, but last season saw him punch out just 49 times total. Luis Arraez, Andrelton Simmons, and Kevin Newman are the only other players to strike out fewer than 50 times in a season where they recorded at least 550 plate appearances since 2015. Outside of that, however, Hoerner seems unlikely to take a step into MVP-candidate territory.

$141MM is a lot to spend on a player who doesn’t make much of a power impact. The fact that Hoerner will finish his contract at the end of his age-35 season while Crow-Armstrong will be wrapping up his age-30 campaign offers additional reasons for skepticism that Hoerner will be able to outproduce Crow-Armstrong. Another question is about health. Crow-Armstrong has not suffered a major injury since arriving in the majors, while Hoerner (despite his iron man status in the past few seasons) dealt with forearm, hamstring, oblique, ankle, and knee issues early in his career that stand as warning signs as he enters his 30s.

What do MLBTR readers think of Chicago’s recent pair of extensions? Which deal will be looked back on as the better investment when all is said and done? Will Crow-Armstrong’s youth and upside lead to a big win for the Cubs, or will he be unable to match the stability and consistency that Hoerner figures to provide? Will Hoerner stay healthy and stave off age-related decline for long enough to provide that stability throughout the deal? Have your say in the poll below: