The Cubs have made a huge splash on the extension front over the past week by locking up a pair of their core position players long-term. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and second baseman Nico Hoerner have signed extensions that will keep them in Chicago through the end of the 2032 season. It’s an exciting development for fans on the North Side. With the team’s recent addition of Alex Bregman plus players like Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson already under long-term control, the Cubs now have a core of position players to build around for the next several years.
That came at a price. Crow-Armstrong’s deal guarantees him $115MM and could climb another $18MM based on his MVP finishes. Hoerner’s deal is even more substantial, guaranteeing him $141MM (although deferred money lowers the net present value slightly to $137.5MM). Those are significant investments and big bets on the pair to continue performing after they turned in career years in 2025. Which one is more likely to live up to those expectations?
The case for Crow-Armstrong is one rooted in his youth and massive upside. His season-long stats in 2025 (including a 109 wRC+, 31 homers, 35 steals, and 6.0 bWAR/5.4 fWAR) could be argued to actually register as a bit of a disappointment based on what he did in the first half, when he was a legitimate early contender for the NL MVP award. 25 of those home runs and 27 of those steals came before the All-Star break, at which point he was slashing a sensational .265/.302/.544. A deep slump throughout August and September raised some concerns, however, as he hit just .188/.237/.295 over the season’s final two months. Crow-Armstrong’s speed and defense are enough to make him a viable major league player even when he’s flirting with the Mendoza line, but he’ll need to do a lot better than that to justify a nine-figure deal.
Can he find the consistency necessary to make the deal a good one? There’s certainly reasons to think so. While Crow-Armstrong struggled in terms of results down the stretch last year, he actually improved his plate discipline somewhat. His 35.6% out-of-zone swing rate and 86.2% in-zone contact rate since August 1 were both better than his season-long figures of 41.9% and 84.0%, respectively. Crow-Armstrong’s struggles late in the 2026 campaign were more about a power outage than an increase in poor swing decisions. If he can carry those improved swing decisions into the future while tapping into his first-half power, he’ll be a superstar. If his first-half power surge proves to be more of a flash in the pan than something sustainable, it’s possible the Cubs could wind up regretting the deal.
By contrast, Hoerner is a much more consistent player with a well-established track record. Since becoming an everyday player in 2022, Hoerner has hit .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) overall. He’s been remarkably consistent year-to-year, as well. His wRC+ has always fallen between 102 and 109, and he’s stolen at least 20 bases every season. After injury woes early in his career, he’s become a reliable presence on the field with at least 640 plate appearances in each of the past three years. He pairs that consistency and availability with superb defense that’s won him two Gold Gloves at the keystone and allowed him to post between 3.8 and 4.8 fWAR (3.7 and 6.2 bWAR) in each of his seasons as a regular.
That profile also comes with limited offensive upside, however. If there’s another gear to Hoerner’s game, it could be proving that his career-best 7.6% strikeout rate from 2025 is repeatable. Hoerner has a career strikeout rate of just 11.0%, so he’s a good bet to make contact at an elite rate in any year, but last season saw him punch out just 49 times total. Luis Arraez, Andrelton Simmons, and Kevin Newman are the only other players to strike out fewer than 50 times in a season where they recorded at least 550 plate appearances since 2015. Outside of that, however, Hoerner seems unlikely to take a step into MVP-candidate territory.
$141MM is a lot to spend on a player who doesn’t make much of a power impact. The fact that Hoerner will finish his contract at the end of his age-35 season while Crow-Armstrong will be wrapping up his age-30 campaign offers additional reasons for skepticism that Hoerner will be able to outproduce Crow-Armstrong. Another question is about health. Crow-Armstrong has not suffered a major injury since arriving in the majors, while Hoerner (despite his iron man status in the past few seasons) dealt with forearm, hamstring, oblique, ankle, and knee issues early in his career that stand as warning signs as he enters his 30s.
What do MLBTR readers think of Chicago’s recent pair of extensions? Which deal will be looked back on as the better investment when all is said and done? Will Crow-Armstrong’s youth and upside lead to a big win for the Cubs, or will he be unable to match the stability and consistency that Hoerner figures to provide? Will Hoerner stay healthy and stave off age-related decline for long enough to provide that stability throughout the deal? Have your say in the poll below:
Another No trade Clause contract for Hoyer. He really loves handing those out don’t he? SMH Surprised PCA didn’t get one too.
I mean he would have gotten 10-and-5 in the middle of the deal anyhow.
For the most part they don’t often stop a player from bringing traded. A nice get for the player, but if a team wants to trade a player, the two sides work it out.
If anyone earned one it’s Nico. You might agree to disagree but I think he earned it.
Jed is just extending the no-trade for Nico. Has a no-trade hurt them yet? And if they really need to trade him, the conditions will probably be bad enough for him to waive the clause.
I was wrong about Nico having a no trade on his current extension.
@bucket…of the no trade clauses that I am aware of….Happ, Seiya, Dansby…all have played out well. Cubs certainly weren’t/aren’t trading any of these guys in a competitive window. And quite honestly would be pretty hard to find players significantly better without increasing payroll.
On the other side of things, I don’t believe any of these guys (could be wrong) have any opt outs.
There surely is a cost to no trade clauses for anyone…but for a player to just be able to walk away is scary.
Perhaps part of the negotiation process for the Cubs in cases is no trade clause in exchange for no opt out.
I don’t feel the opt-out is scary. I realize that players do so because they are playing well enough to get a better deal, but they are also usually in their thirties. It can be a good idea to just let them go to another team for their decline years and use the payroll flexibility for someone else.
@Bucket The issue with opt outs is players who are a legitimate threat to decline soon are not the ones typically opting out. On the other hand if a player has a really down year or suffers severe injury they definitely wont be opting out. The risk is not just them walking by any means.
That’s true whether or not the contract has opt outs or not. Just have to hope for the best during the seasons the guaranteed money is being paid.
If a player is bad your stuck with them whether they have an opt out or not. If a player is good then both team and player got what they wanted. Teams don’t want the last couple few years of most big money long term deals anyway. Watch the machado extension crash and burn
Nico would not have extended with out it. I don’t see a issue with it as you are getting solid value with his contract and plus D.
That was the whole question of it all. Did they have to spend the money and give the no trade contract when they had people coming who could have been very good at the job for less? When you can answer that question with any degree of certainty then it will or won’t make sense. Like it or not Hoyer has picked his infield for the next 5 years. Busch hasn’t even hit his Arb years yet so he’s not going anywhere soon. PCA signed and they finally have a C who looks like he can actually catch AND hit( Ayers). All they had until now were guys who could either catch OR hit, Not both.
He paid over market price ( market at best) and then gave out NTC.
Probably won’t matter w 10/5 rights but shows Jed is not getting better/ smarter at his job as he ages.
On that we totally agree. And by the way his new and improved(?) Bullpen of the new year is off to it’s usually fine start. They should be 10 games down by May except this year now he has no money to even FIND new help like he does every year. Yeah it’s only been 4 games but does Webb, Milner Maton impress anybody else? Their stuff isn’t scaring the Nationals or the Angels anyway. Doubt if it scares the Dodgers, Padres or Brewers. He better hope if they fail that Hodge and Little and Hollowell can pick up the slack because that’s all he’s got.
He has averaged roughly 5 WAR the last 4 seasons and was due to hit free agency in 2027. An AAV of roughly $23M is in no way over value.
And if you watch him pitch he’s so afraid of his stuff that he doesn’t even attempt to put it in the strike zone. He challenges nobody. They paid 23 million dollars for CC to bring him in the 6th inning against the ANGELS and he failed. maybe Keller and a couple of decent arms should have been a priority over Bregman maybe? Yeah well it’s been 4 games but that pen impresses nobody and not Counsell. Hope nobody is looking for help in Iowa because they’ve blown leads in just about every game and are 1-3.
I was replying to MRSHOWTIME on Hoerner. Not sure why it popped up under your comment.
As for the initial topic about cost of the NTC, it would be cool to get the details of what NTCs or Opt outs ultimately cost in negotiations. I know we never will unfortunately. Id guess with Nico it was basically to negate Opt outs or at least similar in cost. All and all though I think its a great deal for a MI in todays MLB.
I don’t think the construction team has ever fought the vitamin team
Horner doesnt offer as much upside as PCA. hes very good defensivly but doesnt hit for near as much power. PCA lacks consistency but is also very good defensivly. They both seem like .240-.270 hitters, but PCA will drive in more runs, while they both will offer speed and defense. To call it a core is a far cry from Javy, Contreras, Schwarber, Hendricks, Rizzo and Bryant. Its still hard to believe as a Cardinals fan they didnt go to more than 1 world series with those guys
“They both seem like .240-.270 hitters” Nico Hoerner had a career batting average of .282.
“To call it a core is a far cry from …..” sorry but Cade Horton is better than Hendricks, PCA is better than Javy, Nico is better than Zobrist, Busch and Rizzo is basically a wash. Then you have Bregman locked in a third base. Palencia at closer. That is definitely a “core” that’s 6 players locked in for at least 4 seasons.
***Schwarber was not very good for the Cubs. Contreras barely caught for the 2016 and his defense/framing was terrible.
When Zobrist and Rizzo were the same ages as those 2 they were coming off seasons where they both had higher WAR and were 9th and 13th MVP compared to 16th and 19th.
This is not an attempt to knock either Nico or Busch. But they have yet to perform better than either of those you compared them against. Considering Zobrist had just broke out late at that age and continued with very pretty healthy productive seasons, its not very likely Nico will out perform him.
Busch I could see out playing what Rizzo had at similar ages in the next few years. This was around time Rizzo started to decline. In the 3 seasons prior to his age 27 season Rizzo finished in MVP top 10 3 consecutive times. To proclaim the 2 as better is simply false and statistically false as of now.
Injuries to KB. His peak years he carried that team. When he was not at that level the team suffered.
@cfs77
It also didn’t help that Theo kept pushing all his chips in the middle for another ws and hurt the farm, but can’t really argue with his methods it worked out in Boston twice and brought a ws to chi.
I can not find fault in a win now approach. It hurts more to show that the bottom line and retaining future cost relief over winning.
We are not talking about teams that struggle with 9k fans and low merch sales. We are talking about a top 5 box and top merch sales org.
So I really don’t buy into that mentality with the Cubs. You go for it or if your plans fall through sell short term for reload.
The best teams have farms and they pay their players. Jed finally is doing his job as a leader of a top 5 payroll
@cfs77
I get the win now approach but you gotta keep a few good prospects to supplement your core and to be your next core. Like I said can’t argue with Theo’s results he has 3 rings to my 0 lol. Also I agree no reason the cubs should be penny pinching in that market
Both will age like wine.
Love me a good box of wine in the morning
I prefer the finer wines like boxed wine and good ol mad dog 2020
both will age like salted pork.
Why are you so salty?
I imagine its something to do with a gland, possibly the liver.
These are the contracts of the next 15 years. Even with a 30% failure rate, I would think less money is wasted than on signing the 27 year old FA to a 8 yr 250. The last year or two you pay 15 mil or more than market value based on the decking skills. Both of these will age better than Bregmans. Look at Phillies, in 2027 they will have 171 million in 5 players over 35 and 1 over 31…they likelihood of any of them playing at all star level in 2027 is slim. Worse yet is only Wheeler comes off for 28…Sign the young guys and hope they don’t bust is way better use of money.
I voted for Pete but think Nico could end up being the one who has better career once both are done playing.
I was almost going to vote Nico since he’ll be a consistent below average hitter with 1 good season.
It’s a big contract for a defense first 2B. Nobody likes the Gimenez contract, even though he’s playing SS now
Let’s get past the “below average hitter” myth. He’s got a career BA of .282.. He was third in all of baseball with RISP and first on his team last season. He’s always in the top five in fewest K’s. And not hitting for a lot of power does not make him less of a hitter. He’s a glue guy and they don’t get to the playoffs last year without him.
Guess you dont watch much baseball.
Besides middle relievers , a guys Avg RISP is the most volatile year to year.
Hanging your head on that is quite the choice.
rondon
“And not hitting for a lot of power does not make him less of a hitter. ”
Of course it does
Would you rather have a hitter with a .350 OBO and a .100 ISO or a hitter with a .350 OBA and a .200 ISO?
“He was third in all of baseball with RISP and first on his team last season.”
One if the most overrated stats in baseball.
First, batting average.
Second, who cares how well a guy hits with a runner on 3rd and a 7 run lead? And why do most people not care about how well a player hits with no one on in a tie game? High-leverage means a lot more than RISP.
Third, the vast VAST majority of players don’t maintain performance from year-to-year in these kinds of situations. It’s almost completely small sample noise
You stat nerds are ridiculous. I swear, some of you guys just want to argue for the sake of arguing. He’s a rock solid, Gold Glove, “high leverage”, low K, base stealing glue guy- who just got paid- because of it. And you’d love it if he was on your team. Get over it.
rondon
“He’s a rock solid, Gold Glove, “high leverage”, low K, base stealing glue guy- who just got paid- because of it. And you’d love it if he was on your team. Get over it.”
Other than “glue guy”, which is a nonsense term, and “high-leverage”, because that doesn’t really exist
(Hoerner wRC+ in high-leverage situations
2022 50
2023 88
2024 106
2025 165
Sometimes he’s great
Sometimes he’s terrible
Sometimes he’s in-between)
I agree. He’s a good player. Is be happy to have him on my team. I just understand stats well enough that I wouldn’t expect him to either excel or struggle in high-leverage situations
It seems like you, a stat-person who doesn’t actually understand stats, are the one arguing for no reason.
What a backwards argument. I know what I’ve seen from watching baseball for 50 something years. “Glue guy” refers to the handful of players I’ve seen play over the years that hold a team together throughout a season. No stat for that. “Nonsense” is the last word you’d use for one of them.
rondon
“. I know what I’ve seen from watching baseball for 50 something years.”
No, you don’t
“Glue guy” is a completely meaningless thing that people say.
But, anyway, that’s not even interesting enough to talk about
If Hoerner is so clutch, or whatever, how come he’s only been really good at it once?
So you’re saying that a major league team paid all that money to a guy who was good “once”? uh. huh.. Ok, Hellen Keller. By the way.. What IS interesting is you’re stuck with a smug, lame argument.. which ironically makes you a glue guy! ))
rondon
“So you’re saying that a major league team paid all that money to a guy who was good “once””.
Nope. That’s not what I said.
Why do you think that’s what I said?
1) Are you dumb?
2) Are you intellectually dishonest?
3) Did you make a mistake?
Let me copy what I said
“If Hoerner is so clutch, or whatever, how come he’s only been really good at it once?”
Try again
Aww. Haven’t you learned that smugness and name calling are the final refuge of the insecure? Do better, son… Go Nico!
rondon
“Haven’t you learned that smugness and name calling are the final refuge of the insecure? ”
I thought that was refusing to answer direct questions and engage honestly. Which is what you’re doing.
I’ll ask again
I did not say “that a major league team paid all that money to a guy who was good “once””.
This is what I said
““If Hoerner is so clutch, or whatever, how come he’s only been really good at it once?””
So why did you reply with this?
“So you’re saying that a major league team paid all that money to a guy who was good “once””.
Is it because
1) You don’t understand the difference between those two statements?
2) You’re being intellectually dishonest?
3) you made a mistake?
And if you believe that “smugness and name calling are the final refuge of the insecure?”, what does that say about you?
“You stat nerds are ridiculous”
“Get over it.”
“Ok, Hellen Keller. ”
“Do better, son”
And, yeah, I am feeling a bit smug right now. Oh well.
I was thinking Nico also because his floor is higher. PCA has 6+ WAR potential. Nico 3+ WAR on a bad year. 6 if he is doing everything.
I can’t bet against PCA’s upside.
Both brotha
I wish more Cubs fanned weighed in on this.
Where is the ‘neither’ button?
Sox fan? Or brewers? I hope the latter, otherwise I pity you
I will take all the pity I can get.
Now it’s time to keep Shotamania on the north side! Defer it all!