MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to begin submitting questions ahead of time, as always.
• Good afternoon! Let’s get underway.

Ross Atkins

• injuries have plagued us. With the several different timelines on players coming back, do you think we will still be a playoff team?

Steve Adams

• The Blue Jays are one of the teams hit hardest by injuries this season, but the division has been pretty even as a whole thus far. It also doesn’t seem like Yesavage — their most impactful absence on the pitching side — is looking at something super long term. I still like the Jays to reach the postseason, but the early slog of health troubles has obviously lessened their odds.

Jordan Walker

• Tell me you were wrong!!

Steve Adams

• Do this for another few months and I sure will.

Free Agency

• Do you believe players heading into free agency play a lot harder to collect all the counting stats to oversell themselves to prospective teams?

Steve Adams

• Teams don’t really pay anyone based on counting stats in 2026. The one exception I could see is maybe guys running a bit more on the bases, but no one’s giving someone an extra year or two because they stole a handful of extra bags.I do still wonder if there was some of that at play with, say, Josh Naylor last summer. And then once he gained confidence in his reads and picking his spots, he just went wild with it.In general, I feel like the whole “contract year” narrative is overblown. There are countless examples of guys having huge years before free agency but just as many instances of someone cratering in his walk season.

  Year-to-year performance is volatile.

Astros71

• Should we be concerned about Abreu?

Steve Adams

• It’s concerning that his velo is down a bit, yeah. I can’t help but wonder if he’s tipping pitches in a fashion similar to Ryan Helsley with the Mets last year, though.Bryan Abreu is SO good, and to see him suddenly struggle to this extent is just mind-boggling, even in a small sample.
• He has a 99 mph average exit velo and an 82% hard-hit rate among his opponents. He’s given up three homers in five innings. It’s wild.

Giants Bullpen

• Is there any righting this ship?

Steve Adams

• Build a time machine, go back to November, and actually invest … well, literally anything in the bullpen? They traded two of their best relievers last July, lost their other one in September to Tommy John surgery, and then just did nothing. I have never understood it.

will

• is Kay legit? is Grant Taylor being used correctly fo his future? why trade Sosa? Sox are killin me! thank you

Steve Adams

• Kay’s swinging-strike rate is way below average, as is his 17.2% strikeout rate. His command has been poor. Nothing he’s doing right now makes me think he can sustain a sub-3.00 ERA — or even a passable one. Obviously we’re only looking at three outings, but his spring wasn’t great either and I talked to scouts in the offseason who considered him more of a non-roster invite/minor league deal guy than someone who should command a big league deal. White Sox obviously disagreed. We’ll see how it plays out, but I’m not super optimistic based on early returns.
• I think Sox fans in general value Sosa more highly than the industry. He played regularly last year and hit 22 homers, I get that. But he’s a perennial sub-.300 OBP with one of the worst walk rates in baseball, prominent platoon splits and no real defensive home despite some nominal versatility.He wasn’t a core piece there and probably isn’t going to last the whole season on Toronto’s roster. Darragh and I talked about this trade for a bit on the podcast episode that’s going to drop tomorrow morning.
• I’d let Taylor try to start since this is a transition/building year anyhow, but I think he’s ultimately a reliever, with a decent chance at being a good high-leverage one.

Tigs

• Do you think J Jackson will hold a roster spot after several Baltimore positional players come off IR ?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Jeremiah Jackson is anywhere near as good a hitter as his results suggest dating back to last year, but he has a bit of versatility and a full slate of minor league options left. So even if he doesn’t stick on the major league roster, he’ll stay around in AAA as a depth piece who’ll be summoned whenever injuries dictate.

Squinky

• Sal Stewart the real deal?

Steve Adams

• Sal can mash
• Fully in on him as a legitimate middle-of-the-order type at first base.

SCR

• Do you see 18-20 saves from a not-so-obvious closer this year ?

Steve Adams

• I suppose Lucas Erceg doesn’t count, but he’s better than Carlos Estevez anyway.Texas situation is pretty up in the air. I don’t think Junis will hold it. Cole Winn is probably my favorite of the arms in that bunch. Griffin Jax in Tampa has been hit hard but is SO talented that I could see him running with the closer role at some point. I am perpetually the “down” guy on Emilio Pagan among the MLBTR staff and I like Graham Ashcraft in the ‘pen, so that’s intriguing to me. But Pagan’s going to have plenty of leash if he’s healthy.

Steve Cohen

• Didier Fuentes is lights out in AAA. Why haven’t the Braves called him up yet?

Steve Adams

• He’s made two starts and has walked or plunked 19% of the hitters he’s faced. I wouldn’t say he’s been lights out, but I don’t think it matters. They’re so stretched for arms that I’d imagine Fuentes gets another look in the very near future. The alternative is … Jose Suarez? JR Ritchie is far more interesting to me, for what it’s worth, though he’s probably dinged a bit by not being on the 40-man roster.

Mets offense

• Without soto, is this getting any better?

Steve Adams

• Yeah, it will. Bo Bichette is too good a hitter to continue on at this rate. He’s chasing a ton, maybe pressing a bit after the big contract and in a new setting, or maybe it’s just a weird small sample blip. He’s still making decent quality contact.Jorge Polanco isn’t hitting the ball as hard as usual, but he’s not striking out and isn’t going to sustain a bottom-of-the-barrel .214 BABIP all season. He’s in for a good bit of positive regression.Same with Francisco Lindor. Carson Benge’s .161 average on balls in play is 8th-worst in MLB. He’s hitting too many grounders, but still, that won’t hold
• Fans generally don’t love to hear “yeah I do think it’s just a lot of small sample noise,” but this time of year that’s often true and I think it’s especially true with what should be a talented Mets offense.Losing Soto hurts, of course, and I didn’t love some of the offseason changes (Nimmo-for-Semien, in particular), but they’re better than this still.

Guardians of the Galaxy

• Do you see Bibee and Cecconi turning things around soon? Seems like their ERA’s are inflated due to poor relief pitching that allows all their runners in base to score. Still Bibee does not seem like a number one. Williams and Messick have been far better.

Steve Adams

• Bibee hasn’t looked like a possible No. 1 starter since 2023-24. I need to dig more deeply into what changes happened with his slider — which Statcast now quantifies as a cutter — since that pitch’s decline has really coincided with his downturn.
• This version of Bibee feels like a homer-prone No. 4 starter, which isn’t bad or anything, but they need him to be more since the org depth isn’t what it once was, nor is the quality atop their staff.
• I do think his ERA will come down, just because he’s not going to keep allowing THIS many homers or running a .380 average on balls in play.Cecconi’s a lesser version of a similar profile, to me. I’d rather see him in the ‘pen, but the Guardians probably need him in the rotation for now.I don’t think Williams has nearly good enough command to be a true top-end starter. Broadly, Cleveland’s rotation just isn’t that great to me.

Pete

• How excited are you for Noah Schultz? What would you say are reasonable expectations for tonight’s contest?

Steve Adams

• 6’10” with a mid-90s heater that flirts with triple digits? Yeah, sign me up. I’ll be watching the Sox tonight haha.Rays haven’t hit lefties well this season and don’t much in the way of RH bats outside Caminero and Yandy (who are obviously both very good), so put me down for a nice debut. (And then yell at me next week when he goes 2.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K)

Lenny

• You stil like the Semien trade a ton even with how Nimmo has been playing?

Steve Adams

• I said I didn’t love that trade. Didn’t get it then, don’t get it now. Would rather have Nimmo. The whole “we need to improve the defense” explanation doesn’t really pass muster when you follow it up by signing Jorge Polanco to play more 1B than any other position and then sign Bichette to move him to 3B

Sec. 315

• Has CJ Abrams’ hot start upped his value to the point where middle infielder needy teams may be ready to bite the bullet on Taboni’s trade ask?  Thoughts on possible suitors?

Steve Adams

• Nothing thus far has really changed my view of him. I touted him as a high-end trade piece all winter and think he was and still is just that. He’s had huge three-month performances to start each of the past two seasons before collapsing. The challenge is getting him to maintain and also finding a new defensive home.Abrams is hitting the ball harder and walking more, if you’re looking for positive indicators, but 60 PAs isn’t enough for me to read much into either, especially when he’s chasing a bit more and his overall contact rate is down considerably.
• I think Abrams should command a very strong return if the Nats move him this summer — multiple top prospects — and he should hold interest to a pretty wide swath of teams. He’d be better suited at 2B or in the OF than shortstop. A team like the Pirates could try him at 3B.Pittsburgh, Toronto, Kansas City, Detroit, Boston … I can see plenty of clubs having real interest.

Guest

• How much of a difference maker can Chandler Simpson be on his speed alone? This past weekend against the Yankees was like, wow.

Steve Adams

• The speed is great but that’s kind of it. He doesn’t walk, has zero power and is probably limited to left field. That’s not to say he can’t be useful. It’s like Luis Arraez levels of contact with an actual second tool to join the package — maybe a third if he can keep playing a plus LF. But the 20-grade power and lack of a premium defensive position cap him as more of a uniquely exciting regular than a true star.

Aaron

• If McMahon doesn’t start to hit soon can you see them making rumored trade going around of Gil for Shaw

Steve Adams

• I hadn’t seen this “rumor” so I searched for it before the chat. It’s really just one speculative “hey this makes sense to me” from a prominent Yankees blogger. There’s no real rumor there, and I’d rather have Luis Gil than Matt Shaw personally, although I’m probably more down on both players than most.

Roddy Z

• I know it’s early, but are the Astros cooked? Their pitching depth was suspect heading into the season, and now their top three starters are on the IL, their  closer is on the IL, and the backup closer looks like he needs to be on the IL. On the position side, their All-Star SS is injured, their starting CF is on the shelf, and there is no OF depth. Any hope for Astros fans?

Steve Adams

• This is another topic Darragh and I discussed at pretty fair length on the podcast episode dropping tomorrow morning, so look out for that.Broad terms, I don’t think they’re cooked or anything yet, no, but they’re also in danger of digging a hole too deep to escape. If this losing streak extends another 3-4 games, you’re looking at a team that’s 8-9 games under .500 with nearly an entire rotation, an elite closer and an elite shortstop on the injured list. Crawling out of that hole would be difficult even for a full-strength team.The immediate challenge is to stop the bleeding, but that’s also hard to do with so many injuries and with Abreu (and Steven Okert) struggling.
• So, no, I don’t think Houston’s season is over or anything, but they’re rapidly approaching 2025 Atlanta/Baltimore levels where it’s May 1 and they’ve already dug such a big hole that it just can’t be escaped by the time critical decisions are due at the trade deadline.

Brian

• Will Cleveland receive draft picks if Chase and Parker stay on the big league team all year?

Steve Adams

• No, they’d need one to win Rookie of the Year or finish top-3 in MVP/Cy Young. But either player could net a draft pick with a top-3 MVP/Cy finish before hitting arbitration, so it’s not exclusive to 2026 alone.

Blue

• If Tigers keep struggling and decide to trade him this season, which team makes most sense?

Steve Adams

• I assume this is referring to Skubal
• I can’t see any scenario where the Tigers trade Skubal. They’d need to be like 10 games out of a postseason berth come deadline season, and in that division, there’s just no way they’re going to be that buried.

baseball fan

• Team that has been playing beyond expectations?  Pittsburgh, Minnesota?

Steve Adams

• Both? Haha
• Pirates’ offense has been far better than I expected. In general, I thought expectations were too high for the group. I still think that’s true, but Oneil Cruz is an MVP-level talent in the batter’s box (not so much on the defensive side, yeesh), so if this is the beginning of a true breakout, then hell yeah they’re going to be exciting.Twins’ start is hilarious and entertaining but seems entirely unsustainable.

Still an A

• Picks for Rookies of the year?

Steve Adams

• I picked DeLauter and Griffin prior to the season.
• Full slate of pre-season picks (made just prior to Opening Day)
• AL East: Blue Jays
  AL Central: Tigers
  AL West: Mariners
  Wild Card: Orioles
  Wild Card: Yankees
  Wild Card: Red Sox
  NL East: Phillies
  NL Central: Cubs
  NL West: Dodgers
  Wild Card: Brewers
  Wild Card: Mets
  Wild Card: Reds
  AL MVP: Gunnar Henderson
  NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
  AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal
  NL Cy Young: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
  AL ROY: Chase DeLauter
  NL ROY: Konnor Griffin
  World Series: Mariners over Dodgers

Guest

• will sevy get traded this year

Steve Adams

• Doubt it. Even if he’s pitching well, the opt-out is such a poison pill. It doesn’t make it impossible or anything, but it’s so much downside for an opposing team to take on — especially for someone who’s more of a midrotation arm than a top-end guy at this point of his career.

Twin bill

• Which of the Twins players do you see having value this summer?

Steve Adams

• Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers are the main ones. Josh Bell, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Trevor Larnach, Bailey Ober could all have modest value, but not a ton. Byron Buxton as well, but he has the no-trade clause and has said he wants to spend his whole career in MN, so I assume that won’t happen.

Shaker Moseby

• Thoughts on the Sosa trade for the Jays?   Seeing how he can’t be optioned, do you think it says something about what they’ve seen from Fitzgerald, Kasevich, Jimenez et al?

Steve Adams

• Sosa’s a platoon-y bench guy. They didn’t give up much. It feels like a placeholder move and I doubt he sticks all season on their roster unless the change of scenery brings about a notable overhaul in his approach at the plate.

Chris G

• How long before I DFA Benintendi? 50% K rate and pretty marginal in the field.

Steve Adams

• With two years left on the contract, I doubt anytime soon. Would be another story if the Sox envisioned contending this year.  I imagine they’ll hope he catches fire and hits well enough to convince an OF-needy team to take a few million of the contract in July. I doubt they’ll succeed in that regard, granted.

Dakota

• My hot takes of hot takes… I don’t think the Angels are an elite team, or even close to an elite team. But, with more paths to the postseason these days, I really don’t think they’re THAT far off. If they can flirt with .500 heading into the 2nd half, will they make a big move for an arm, or 10?

Steve Adams

• I think they’re closer to the worst team in the AL than even a Wild Card contender, and even if they hang around .500, the farm is so barren that they’d be hard pressed to add a notable arm — let alone multiple arms.

Austin hedges

• tell me why i shouldn’t be the starting catcher for the guards?

Steve Adams

• Neither Hedges nor Bo Naylor should be a starting catcher in the majors, but man alive does Cleveland love Hedgey

Reds fan

• I’m not a Noelvi Marte fan, but it feels like Francona set him up to fail. Sporadic at-bats, platoon against LHP knowing that Marte hits RHP better. Is this the end of Marte or is he someone who needs to be traded to a new team?

Steve Adams

• I do not understand Cincinnati’s fixation on Will Benson. I’d have had Marte playing every day in right field. I still think he can be a solid corner outfielder, and the current big league group is shaky enough that he can hit his way back into another opportunity if he gets right.I’m curious to see if Rece Hinds can maintain any of the small-sample contact/plate discipline gains he’s made in AAA though. He’s chasing less, making way more contact — especially in the zone. It’s not a lot of data to go off, but it’s encouraging, and there’s never really been any doubting the blend of raw power+speed … it’s just a matter of making enough contact/getting on base enough.

Mets coaching

• Hefner and Chavez seemed to be deservingly canned after years of frustration, but so far the same exact issues keep plaguing the hitting and pitching; too many ground balls from guys like Baty, pitchers throwing uncompetitive pitches and giving up too many baserunners as a result (wasn’t Willard’s whole deal to throw in the zone more?); even the fielding seems to have regressed badly from a supposedly defensively superior team; were the wrong guys removed? Antwon Richardson was an obvious keep, but was Mendoza the problem here? Were the new hires smoke and mirrors?

Steve Adams

• In general, I think fans expect coaching changes to bring about major shifts that aren’t realistic. The days of one individual coach making such a strong impact — a notion that was maybe always overstated — are just so far gone. Every team has multiple hitting/pitching coaches. The players are also working with advance scouts, info from the analytics department, and dozens of other sources of input.Coaching changes feel more symbolic and scapegoat-y than anything else. In some instances, sure a change is necessary, but I just don’t think it has the impact many seem to place on it.

ATX Halo

• Have you ever said anything not negative about the Angels?

Steve Adams

• Zach Neto’s great. Mike Trout has had one of the best careers ever. Shohei ruled there.There’s not a lot great to say about the roster overall, and ownership certainly doesn’t merit praise either.I have nothing against the Angels. They’ve just been really bad for a long time.

matt w

• If Brandon Lowe continues to play well (not 5 RBIs a game well), what kind of contract is he looking at next year?

Steve Adams

• It’s still a 2B-only profile without much in the way of defensive chops, and he’ll be 32 in July (turning 33 year one of the contract).Something like Jorge Polanco’s 2/40 would be my limit probably.

Guest

• Is Taj Bradley’s success so far this year sustainable?

Steve Adams

• Velo’s up a touch, missing way more bats so far both in spring and the regular season. Modest changes to his pitch usage, but nothing major. Bradley bizarrely acknowledged after the trade that with the Rays he never really leaned on scouting reports or advance scouts in his outings, which is crazy to me, and it seems like he’s doing that now.Obviously not buying a sub-2.00 ERA — he’s going to give up a home run eventually, haha — but can I buy him as an above-average starter? Yeah
• Here’s the thing on scouting reports and finally looking into data:
• https://www.twincities.com/2025/08/30/taj-bradley-fantastic-mick-abel-…
• “They give you the numbers. They think it’s the best thing and they are right,” Bradley said. “It’s just me being hard-headed. Me finally getting out of my own way.”
• Rays personnel probably seething to hear him say that a month after being traded last summer, haha
• Alright. I’ve got to call it for the week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social for more questions.You can get more opinions and analysis from the MLBTR team, exclusive chats, fantasy baseball advice, ad-free viewing and access to our Contract Tracker, GM Tracker, Agency database (and more!) with our Front Office subscription package. Learn more and sign up here.Have a good week, everyone!