MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! I’ll get going at the top of the hour, but feel free to start sending in questions now.

Cards Fan

• Gorman a change of scenery candidate?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think they’ll get a ton for him, but at a certain point, I don’t know why they wouldn’t move on. He’s trending toward a non-tender, and he’s had a pretty substantial leash both in ’26 and more broadly over the past several seasons. Does feel like a change-of-scenery guy, whether this summer or in an early-November trade or just as a free agent with a new team after he’s non-tendered.

Dave

• Who says no: Josue De Paula straight-up for CJ Abrams?

Steve Adams

• One prospect — and De Paula is a good one! — isn’t going to pull two-plus years of Abrams.

Yankeespitching

• Do you think Jac Caglione would be worth keeping or dropping. I was hoping for a break out year but so far it hasn’t worked out

Steve Adams

• Always depends on league context, but if you’re in a standard 10- or 12-team mixed league, yeah, I don’t see a need to hang onto him. If it’s a deep mixed league or an AL-only format, might be another story

Guest

• If the Astros are 4+ GB at the deadline, what are the odds they trade Yordan Alvarez?

Steve Adams

• Zero chance they move him if they’re four back. I’d say the odds are slim even if they’re 10 or 12 back, but it’d have to be something enormous like that before they even consider it.

TxDude

• Why is the AL so bad this season? I feel like it’s gonna be pretty awkward if a below .500 team makes the playoffs

Steve Adams

• I’m as surprised by everyone else with the generally weak level of competition in the AL, but I don’t see why it’ll be awkward if a .500ish team makes the playoffs. The ’06 Cardinals won 83 games in the regular season before winning the World Series. Baseball’s weird. Weird things happen.

Zach

• Who is more likely traded, Trout or Alvarez?

Steve Adams

• Neither?
• I suppose Trout could say he’s finally had enough and ask for a trade, but if he hasn’t by now, I’m not sure anything’s going to push him there.

Mlb fan

• What starting pitchers do you see being available at the deadline?

Steve Adams

• Joe Ryan, Tarik Skubal, Sandy Alcantara, Max Meyer, Casey Mize, Dustin May, Tyler Mahle, Robbie Ray, Adrian Houser, Jack Flaherty, Kris Bubic, Bailey Ober, Dustin May, Brady Singer, Zack Littell
• Skubal only if Detroit is completely buried, which I’m still not convinced will be the case, but at this point you’ve got to acknowledge the possibility of it.

Alex

• Do you see the Cubs doing a little buying AND selling at the deadline? Maybe making moves that could technically help the team down the stretch, but would be with an eye more for 2027 (i.e. controllable pitching)?

Steve Adams

• Most contending clubs are open to these sorts of scenarios. Cubs won’t be an exception. They should absolutely be eyeing controllable starting pitching, as their 2027 rotation right now is Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown and the shrug emoji guy. You hope Justin Steele’s in there, but he’s already run into some setbacks in the UCL rehab. Boyd, Imanaga and Taillon are free agents. Horton won’t be ready until several months into the season. Rea has a club option but TBD if it’s picked up

Frank

• Will the Giants move off of Matt c, adames, or devers at deadline?

Steve Adams

• Can’t see another club taking on those contracts. They could always include some cash to pay down part of them, but Adames and Chapman also have full no-trade clauses.

Dustin May

• You named me twice in the “available at the deadline?” question.  Do you see me being traded twice, should I not unpack my bags after the first trade?

Steve Adams

• Yes he will be traded no fewer than six times this summer
• (Sorry, going off the cuff there haha)

Frank

• What type of contract do u see mize getting in free agency?

Steve Adams

• Depends how quickly he returns from the IL, how he finishes, whether he’s traded (and thus whether he’s eligible for a QO, which he’ll likely receive if he stays in Detroit), but generally something in the $68-90MM range over four years?

Chris Getz

• Brayden Montgomery rookie of the year candidate?

Steve Adams

• Probably not even the leading ROY candidate on his own team (Mune!), and he’s got a lot of work to do to chase down McGonigle, who already has nearly 300 PAs. I don’t see it

Cory

• Any chance the brewers sign Castellanos?

Steve Adams

• I was surprised the Padres signed him and gave him as much leash as they did. I don’t see why anyone would look at what Castellanos has done in recent years, but especially in ’26, and think he’s going to help improve their club.

Guest

• No one is going to trade for Skubal unless the price is very low, which it wont be, or if they can agree on an extension at time of trade. Which i believe is a long shot as well.

Steve Adams

• Disagree on all of that, with the exception of an extension being a long shot … which I guess I also technically disagree with, since I’d put the chances of a Skubal extension at 0

Natitude

• What do the Nats do with Foster Griffin? Trade fodder at the deadline or offer him a multiyear extension?  He’s been pretty solid as a middle of the rotation arm.

Steve Adams

• Yeah he’s been a solid add. He’s also turning 31 soon and has a 91 mph fastball, so I imagine they’re looking at him more as a short-term trade chip than a long-term building block. Should’ve had him on my list of available arms at the deadline, but like I said, I was going off the cuff.

Zach

• Do teams get a period of time to get below a salary cap if its added and already exceed it?

Steve Adams

• I’m sure it’d be gradually implemented, yes, but I’ll be the broken record guy again here and say I don’t think there’ll be a cap/floor or games lost next year (offseason lockout/transaction freeze, absolutely though)

Freddy Peralta

• This feels like a “meh” platform year. Still not working deep into games, strikeout rate slightly down, and walk rate up. More likely to get SP2 than “ace” money this offseason?

Steve Adams

• I think probably closer to No. 2 money than “ace” money, yeah, but that could still mean $135MMish.

Matt

• White Sox need starting pitching. Do you think they make a splash and trade for a top dog? Peralta?

Steve Adams

• I doubt they’ll be giving up notable talent for rentals. They’re just (hopefully) opening their window, so it stands to reason they’ll either add rentals with minimal cost of acquisition or prioritize guys with at least one more year of control (ideally more than that).

anonymous

• No because they have yelich but castellanos would be a good dh

Steve Adams

• Castellanos has lost two miles per hour of bat speed in the past two years and has batted .240/.280/.390 over his past 711 plate appearances in the majors.
• He was just released by a team whose collective offense has posted worse rate stats over the past month than Zack Greinke did as a hitter in his career.
• The fascination with Castellanos — and it’s not just in this chat, it dates back to last deadline/last offseason — is genuinely perplexing to me. He hasn’t even been below-average, he’s just been a bad hitter for closing in on three years now.

Luis Lara

• What do you think of my contract extension? Give it a grade.

Steve Adams

• They paid a top prospect the same amount it’d cost to sign a 30-something fourth starter in free agency. In doing so, they secured control over three would-be free agent seasons and cost security over his arb years. Seems fine to me.

Blindreid

• Sign Arraez to an extension?

Steve Adams

• Feels likelier that they trade him. The Giants had zero interest in handing out any additional long-term contracts this past winter.

Posey

• Why didn’t I invest in a bullpen?

Steve Adams

• One of the top questions I’d have to ask for any team regarding their 2025-26 offseason

John

• What if Lara doesn’t hit MLB pitching?

Steve Adams

• Then the Brewers are basically out the same as if they’d signed Matt Boyd and he blew out his UCL a month into the first season of the deal.

Matthew

• Can you please explain the Braves/Carlos Carrasco situation.  Why do they keep designating him for assignment just to turn around and resign him (multiple times this season)?  What purpose does this serve?  Thanks Steve.

Steve Adams

• I explain it in the post every time it happens! Haha.He can’t be optioned. He’s content with riding the AAA/MLB carousel. Select him to the majors, get a fresh arm/length for the ‘pen, DFA him the next time they need a spot. Repeat.
• He’s the 41st man on their 40-man roster.

White Sox

• Sandy Alcantara seems to be a good trade target for the Sox? He also shouldn’t cost them any of their top prospects

Steve Adams

• I suppose he’s not costing them Bonemer or Montgomery, but the ask would still be relatively significant, and I imagine the Marlins would at least start out asking about Hagen Smith, Tanner McDougal, Billy Carlson, etc.

SDP

• Jason Adam and Will Wagner to Houston for Christian Walker and Ullola, who says no

Steve Adams

• I don’t think that makes Houston better in the aggregate, and at least as of this moment, I’m skeptical they’ll do anything to make the team worse.

Boston GM

• Red Sox looking for a right handed bat wouldn’t a trade for Royce Lewis work for them.

Steve Adams

• Doubt the Twins are anxious to sell low on him, and no harm seeing if he can play a passable 1B/2B and get some of his form back at the plate. He decimated AAA pitching after he was sent down.

Lovable losers

• Can the Cubs really afford to move on from value like Shaw, Ramirez, or Wiggins at the trade deadline for? Or do they stay mid tier and move Alcantara, Long or Triantos for a blah move?

Steve Adams

• I’m not super high on Shaw in general, as I’ve said in the past, but I don’t think there’s any reason they can’t move on from one of Shaw or Ramirez. The infield is set long-term with Bregman, Swanson, Hoerner and Busch — for better or worse. (Left side looking a bit shaky at the moment, but it’s a five-week skid for Dansby and Bregman has been serviceable at least).Moving one of those guys to a team with more infield needs and then using the other as a superutility and/or corner outfield piece would be fine.

  I can understand being reluctant to move Wiggins, given the lack of pitching in place beyond ’26. Personally, I hope they do it just so I don’t briefly conflate Jaxon Wiggins and Jordan Wicks, which I inexplicably do for about 1.5 seconds every time either one of them is mentioned, haha.

Trade

• Robbie Ray becomes an actual Ray for Brody Hopkins and a lower prospect. Thanks

Steve Adams

• I’m not giving up Hopkins for Ray even if the Giants pay the whole salary

Angels Fan

• Who would bring back a better return for the Angels, Neto or Soriano?

Steve Adams

• Who gets the bigger return?

  ---

  Zach Neto (controlled thru 2029) (60.1% | 127 votes)

  Jose Soriano (controlled thru 2028) (39.8% | 84 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 211
• I like watching this oscillate in realtime, because that’s basically what I did mentally, ha. I will give the nod to Soriano though, as the need for SP is always larger.
• I don’t think the Angels will trade either, though, since they’re content to just live in their own state of denial about the status of the organization.

Max

• Do you really think the Marlins will trade me? The way you think they will perpetually be a AAA club since anyone whois good or decent you expect them to trade for someone unproven and if thats the case they will never contend/

Steve Adams

• If someone makes a compelling offer, there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t. He’s only controlled for two more seasons after this one — same amount of control they had over Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, both of whom they traded.I get the frustration of perpetually trading so many arbitration-level players, but that’s just their reality.

  I don’t think it’s any sort of foregone conclusion that Meyer is dealt, but they will 100% be asked about him, and they’ll entertain the idea if someone makes a significant offer.

Chupco

• chances angel blow up team and star rebuild this off season

Steve Adams

• 0.4%? They should, but we’ve seen this routine from Arte Moreno enough to know that doesn’t feel like anything but the longest of long shots.

Team Kaptain

• What could the Reds do at the trade deadline? Feels like nothing

Steve Adams

• No need for them to make that decision seven weeks out. They’ll hopefully be getting Greene back by then, which helps. Elly, too.Obviously a frustrating team, but there’s a decent core in place there and if they’re within arm’s reach they’ll try to contend, even if it’s just with more small-scale bullpen/bench acquisitions.

D

• If/when the White Sox draft chose a SS with the #1 pick in this year’s draft, what do we do with the SS surplus?

Steve Adams

• I don’t believe there’s any such thing as a true surplus in a sport where injuries and prospect stall-outs are this common, and that’s especially true when you’re talking about shortstops who haven’t even been drafted yet. Even if they take Cholowsky and he’s a true franchise shortstop by late 2027/early 2028, then you just make it work. Montgomery plays some 3B, Vargas and Mune rotate at 1B/DH (with Vargas still mixing in some occasional 3B reps). You’ve got Bonemer and Carlson in there, too, of course, but they can be moved around as well.Half the regulars you see around the league were drafted as shortstops but have since moved to other INF positions or the outfield.
• (“Half” is hyperbole, but it’s extremely common, and shortstops tend to be the best athletes on the field, so moving them to other positions tends to be easier than relocating someone who’s further down the defensive spectrum)
• You also can’t assume they’ll all hit and stay healthy. Someone in the group will bust. We’re less than 10 years removed from “wow Eloy, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, etc. — this team is going to be unstoppable for years.”Prospects get hurt and bust. A lot.

CHISOX FAN

• The old adage ” You never have enough pitching” has been misinterpreted by Chris Getz to read “you never have enough Shortstops.”

Steve Adams

• Generally agree with both those sentiments.
• Too many starters/shortstops is not a bad thing, and there’s no such thing as a surplus of either.

Nate

• If the Pirates are in contention late, would you bring up Seth Hernandez to the pen. Ala Rays & David Price?

Steve Adams

• Price was drafted 1-1 as a college ace and had already dominated AAA when he was called up shortly after his 23rd birthday. Hernandez was a high school draftee who’s 19 and hasn’t pitched above A-ball yet.

Chris

• Twins will move Buxton yay or nay?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think so, no

Mets

• Will sterns be gm on opening day 2027?

Steve Adams

• Can I be pedantic and say no, because he’s the president of baseball operations and not the GM? :)I don’t envision Cohen moving on, no. I’d be surprised if Stearns were ousted.

Boegarts

• Get him to drop the no trade clause would anyone want him and who could we get?

Steve Adams

• No one is touching that contract

redrum

• who’s better: miz or chase burns?

Steve Adams

• I love Chase Burns, but there aren’t many I’d take over Misiorowski. Might not be any. Hmm.

balti more catchers than one needs

• Say Orioles still playing like this at the deadline, 3 to 4 games under and a few games back from wild card. Could you see rutschman being traded for some good controllable pitching given basallo breakout and extension, and adley’s deal expiring after 2027?

Steve Adams

• Feels like it’d be more of an offseason thing, as trading Rutschman negates much of the value you’d be bringing in via trade. It’s also generally rare for starting catchers to be traded midseason. A lot of work goes into learning a staff, building a rapport with the group, etc.

Nats

• Is the offense for real and sustainable?

Steve Adams

• James Wood is an absolute monster. CJ Abrams is great. I am cautiously optimistic about the random Curtis Mead breakthrough, but it’ll take more than 180ish PA for me to fully buy in. Rest of the group, meh. I think Lile is a better hitter than he’s been on the whole this season but not as good as he was last year. Luis Garcia is an average-ish hitter who’ll probably be moved.In general, the Nationals’ success in terms of scoring runs seems largely tied up in timely hitting with runners on base. I don’t think they’re as good as their overall run total suggests.

  But James Wood and CJ Abrams are great.

Smoke and mirrors

• What is happening in Stl?  Starters are bad, bullpen only has like 4 guys you can trust and are just ok, lineup is real bad outside top 4 (5 with Noot).  This can’t be sustainable.  Right?

Steve Adams

• I probably like the bats a bit more than you do — Walker, JJ, Burleson, Winn, Herrera, Noot are all just good or better — but the pitching on this team is going to cost them. Almost everyone in the rotation is a major regression candidate

Johnny5

• Who gets the better contract this winter: Jake Bauers or Andrew Vaughn?

Steve Adams

• Vaughn’s not a free agent! So … Bauers. Haha
• Alright I’ve got to call it for the week. I’m on X @adams_steve and bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions and analysis from the MLBTR team, you can check out our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package. In addition to ad-free viewing, you get two subscriber-only chats per a week, a weekly mailbag from Tim, fantasy advice from Nicklaus Gaut, exclusive articles from Anthony and myself, and access to our Contract Tracker, agency database, GM tracker and the new payroll pages we’re launching in the next couple weeks. Subscribers will also get access to our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series.

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  Thanks for chatting everyone!