The Astros’ rotation has been utterly decimated by injury this year, as ace Hunter Brown and others have missed significant time. Unsurprisingly, the rotation has been one of the league’s worst. Astros starters have put up a fourth-worst 9.6% K-BB rate along with a 5.02 ERA that bests only the Rockies. Although the team is just three games out of a Wild Card spot, it’s clear that any path back to the postseason (let alone a deep playoff run) will require better health and performance from the starting rotation.
Brian McTaggart of MLB.com offered updates on three of the supporting arms yesterday. As relayed by manager Joe Espada, it looks as though Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, and Lance McCullers Jr. are all making progress in their rehab. Javier (Grade 2 right shoulder strain) has been on the injured list since early April, and McCullers (right shoulder inflammation) since May 19th. Blanco underwent Tommy John surgery last June and could return in the second half, assuming a normal recovery timeline.
Javier is the closest of the three to a big league return, with MLB.com’s official injury report putting him on a late June timeline. Javier only made three starts early on before going on the IL. While his velocity was essentially unchanged from last year, Javier struggled badly and allowed 13 earned runs in 9 1/3 total innings, striking out just four against nine walks allowed.
The IL stint continued a frustrating recent stretch of Javier’s career. From 2020-23, he had a 3.57 ERA in 466 1/3 innings across 109 appearances, 75 of which were starts. Javier was an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but he compensated by striking out 28.1% of opposing hitters in that span. In contrast, Javier has thrown just 81 innings since the start of 2024, with the bulk of that absence coming from June 2024 Tommy John surgery and the associated recovery. He has a 5.22 ERA in those 81 innings.
Javier is still younger than 30, but it’s now been three years since he’s been a healthy and serviceable big league starter. That said, his return could still be impactful by allowing Houston to demote an ineffective arm like Mike Burrows, who has a 5.87 ERA in 14 starts. The team has a good amount of off-days in July and August even outside the All-Star break, so a five-man rotation could be all that’s needed long term. Javier pitched three innings on June 9th and will probably aim for at least four today at Triple-A. At the rate he’s building up, he might need one more start after today before returning to Houston.
Meanwhile, Blanco threw 40 pitches in a simulated appearance yesterday and could soon begin his own rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League, according to McTaggart. Given he’s coming back from TJS, Blanco’s rehab will be closer to the maximum stint than Javier. For comparison, Gerrit Cole required six rehab starts from mid-April to mid-May before the Yankees activated him on May 22nd.
Of the three arms mentioned by McTaggart, Blanco has the most recent track record of effective pitching. The righty broke out with a 2.80 ERA in 167 1/3 innings in 2024. Blanco was a bit lucky to achieve that performance, as evidenced by his 3.97 xERA and 4.17 SIERA, but he was nonetheless a serviceable arm and accumulated 2.2 fWAR that year. Blanco has less than three years of service time and is controlled through 2029, so he has plenty of time to re-establish himself post-injury.
In contrast to Javier and Blanco, McCullers has not been healthy or effective in a while. He’s also the furthest from a big league return, as McTaggart relays that McCullers has just begun throwing off a mound. Now 32, McCullers has only thrown 142 1/3 innings since the start of 2022, missing 2023-24 entirely. He did have a 2.27 ERA in eight starts in 2022, but simply coming back and staying healthy is the priority for McCullers, who’s a free agent following the season.
On the hitting side, McTaggart adds that catcher Yainer Diaz will catch for Javier’s Triple-A rehab start today. Diaz could return to the Astros for the upcoming home series against the Tigers. He’s been out since early May with a left oblique strain and was hitting .238/.255/.347 in 107 plate appearances prior to that, good for a wRC+ of just 63. Diaz was much closer to average in 2025 (92 wRC+). Christian Vázquez isn’t hitting much in Diaz’s place, so the latter will be in line to reclaim his starting job when he gets back.
Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images