Free Agent Stock Watch: Jorge Cantu
When the Marlins traded Jorge Cantu to the Rangers before this year's July 31st deadline, it was a prime opportunity for Cantu to turn his season around. Playing for a postseason contender in a hitter-friendly park, the 28-year-old was in a good position to improve his stock with a productive stretch run. It's still possible that Cantu will come up with some timely hits in the playoffs for the Rangers, but so far, his time in Texas has been a major disappointment. In 75 plate appearances, Cantu has hit .206/.270/.265 and has yet to drive in a run.
Prior to the season, Cantu was coming off a two-year stretch in Florida in which he hit .283/.336/.462, averaged over 20 homers per season, and logged playing time at both corner infield positions. His performance earned him a $6MM contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility, but his discouraging 2010 campaign doesn't bode well for his impending free agency.
When teams consider Cantu this winter, one thing working in his favor is his history. This isn't the first time the infielder has had a letdown year following a successful one – in 2006, on the heels of a .286/.311/.497, 28-homer season for the Rays, Cantu hit just .249/.295/.404. His drop-off in OPS that season (.808 to .699) looks awfully similar to his decline from 2009 to 2010 (.788 to .691). Cantu rebounded nicely after signing with the Marlins, and he's still young enough that he could do so again.
Even if a club takes a chance on Cantu's ability to bounce back though, it's hard to imagine him landing more than a short-term deal. The first base market is flush with alternatives, and Cantu has never been a strong defensive third baseman, according to UZR. Cantu's best option may be signing an affordable one-year deal in the hopes that he can rebuild his value and ink a long-term contract next winter, entering his age-30 season.
Poll: Extending Josh Hamilton
When he’s on the field, Josh Hamilton is one of the best players in the game. Hamilton’s five-tool ability has translated into results for a few seasons now and at 29 he leads the American League in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
But Hamilton, who had completed just one full season in the major leagues before this year, has not played since bruising his ribs in early September. Injuries have prevented Hamilton from playing more regularly throughout his career, so questions about his ability to stay on the field would no doubt contribute to the Rangers’ willingness to guarantee tens of millions of dollars. At this point, Rangers GM Jon Daniels tells Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that he isn’t worried about extending Hamilton.
"Our only focus as it relates to Josh right now is getting him healthy and back in the lineup," Daniels said. "The contractual stuff will take care of itself."
The Rangers have Hamilton under team control for two seasons after this so they don’t face the same urgency that the Cardinals do with their franchise player. Hamilton won’t cost nearly as much as Albert Pujols, but he’s in a position to demand more than $40MM over four years, no small amount of money. It’s a good problem to have – how would you address it if you were in Daniels’ position?
Would you offer Josh Hamilton a long-term extension?
Click here to take the survey and here to see the results.
Davidoff On Beltran, Greinke, Takahashi, Kemp
The Mets are sending "strong signals" that they'd like to trade Carlos Beltran this winter, an AL official tells Ken Davidoff of Newsday. Davidoff acknowledges that the Mets often seem to want to unload big contracts, but rarely follow through. However, Beltran, as opposed to Luis Castillo or Oliver Perez, is a player that other teams would have interest in. Here are Davidoff's other hot stove notes:
- The Royals have Zack Greinke signed through 2012, but aren't sure whether they'll be competitive by then, so they'd be willing to listen to offers on their ace. Davidoff lists the Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, and Nationals as teams who might be interested.
- Hisanori Takahashi is eligible for free agency this winter and would like to be a starting pitcher. One AL scout is skeptical: "Who’s going to sign him to start? Maybe a bad team, at the back end of their rotation. He’d be better off staying in the bullpen. He’s really good there."
- Davidoff wonders if new Dodgers manager Don Mattingly will be more willing to deal with Matt Kemp than Joe Torre was. A scout compares Kemp to Alfonso Soriano, suggesting that both players lack baseball instincts and struggle to improve their games.
Odds & Ends: Rangers, Pirates, Cotts, Marlins
Links for Friday, before Dan Haren celebrates his 30th birthday by taking on one of baseball's most potent offenses…
- MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan lists ten decisions that have been critical to the Rangers' success this season.
- The Pirates have released lefty Neal Cotts according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America and this week's edition of minor league transaction.
- Padres' first base coach Rick Renteria is on the Marlins radar with regards to their managerial opening, says MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. He adds that Yankees bench coach Tony Pena is a candidate as well.
- Chipper Jones told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that it would be hard to stop playing before his body prevents him from doing so, partly because “you can make absurd amounts of money” as a baseball player.
- Former Orioles manager Dave Trembley told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that he’d like to coach in the major leagues next year (Twitter link).
- The Pirates' minor league success has been a major positive this year, but Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette questions how the Pirates also allowed for "near-total destruction of the major-league product." The team is 50 games below .500 with the worst record in baseball.
- Carl Crawford told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that his impending free agency hasn't been hard to handle, since the Rays are winning. Click here for Bradford's analysis of how Crawford would fit in Fenway.
- Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald breaks down Boston's options behind the plate for 2011, from free agents Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek to new acquisition Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
- John Dewan of the Fielding Bible explained to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that Adam Dunn's poor defense wouldn't necessarily prevent the Nationals from building a better defensive team.
Darren Oliver’s 2011 Option Vests
Darren Oliver will be back with the Rangers in 2011. The left-hander's $3.25MM option vested when he pitched a scoreless inning and struck a batter out in last night's game. That kind of performance has been the norm for Oliver, who turns 40 next month. He has a 2.50 ERA on the season with 9.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. As a result, the Rangers probably would have picked the option up even if it hadn't vested.
Oliver, who is now in his 17th big league season, began his MLB career with the Rangers in 1993 on a team that included current team president Nolan Ryan. Like Ryan, Oliver is enjoying success late into his career. The 2010 season has arguably been his best since moving to the 'pen full-time in 2004.
Rosenthal On Rangers, Helton, D’Backs
Ozzie Guillen is under contract through 2012, but he would be a good fit in Miami, if you ask Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Marlins want a “passionate and fiery” manager, and Guillen certainly qualifies. Here are the rest of Rosenthal’s rumors:
- So far, the Rangers have not engaged GM Jon Daniels in serious discussions about an extension. To be fair, the team is in the midst of a pennant race and may prefer to discuss an extension later. Daniels has maintained that he wants to stay in Texas, though he can leave because of the team’s recent ownership change.
- The Rockies will “almost certainly” want to complement Todd Helton with a right-handed hitting first baseman this offseason. Troy Renck of the Denver Post agrees (Twitter link).
- Padres hitting coach Randy Ready may be a candidate to manage the Diamondbacks if they hire Kevin Towers as their next GM.
Odds & Ends: Sandberg, Werth, Mets, Drabek, Dunn
Links for Sunday, as Chris Volstad goes for his fifth win vs. the Nationals this season….
- The Mariners "quietly have interest" in Ryne Sandberg, writes Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post.
- Jayson Werth is looking for an agency willing to charge a lower commission than the usual 5%, reports Ken Davidoff of Newsday. Davidoff provides an update on Werth's search for representation and examines the chances of the Yankees pursuing the outfielder this offseason.
- In a separate piece, Davidoff looks at some options for the Mets' next manager and GM.
- There are hints that Tony La Russa is leaning toward managing the Cardinals in 2011, as Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.
- The Blue Jays will call up top prospect Kyle Drabek to make his major league debut Wednesday in Baltimore, according to the team (Twitter link).
- Ronny Cedeno is on his way to locking up the Pirates' 2011 shortstop job, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
- Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas points out that Darren Oliver needs to make just one more appearance to guarantee his option for next season.
- Nationals GM Mike Rizzo tells MASN (Twitter link) that the team is still "in conversations" to keep Adam Dunn in Washington.
Odds & Ends: D’Backs, Matsui, Ausmus, Peralta
Links for Thursday night, as the NFL season kicks off in New Orleans….
- The favorites for the Diamondbacks' general manager opening appear to be Kevin Towers and Jerry Dipoto, with Logan White looming as a "dark-horse." Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the three candidates.
- Hideki Matsui wants to play somewhere in the majors next year, but he may not be in the Angels' plans, writes MLB.com's Evan Drellich.
- In a chat with Rangers fans, Nolan Ryan says the team has "every intention" of bringing manager Ron Washington back next year (Dallas Morning News link).
- Brad Ausmus tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that he'd be open to rejoining the Astros' organization after he retires. Ausmus said earlier this year that he expects this season to be his last.
- Steve Kornacki of MLive.com thinks Jhonny Peralta's 2011 option could be a good investment for the Tigers, given how well the 28-year-old has played lately.
- Fangraphs' Eno Sarris looks at a few contenders for the Mets' 2011 second base job.
The Rangers’ 2011 Rotation
The Rangers have said they would like to re-sign Cliff Lee after the season and who can blame them? Even though Lee has posted a 4.69 ERA and dealt with a sore back since the Mariners traded him to Texas, he can still be dominant. He has issued just four unintentional walks with the Rangers and struck out 72, so the former Cy Young Award winner is doing something right, in spite of the higher-than-expected ERA.
But lots of teams will want Lee, who figures to be the most highly-coveted free agent starter this offseason. Under new, stable ownership the Rangers have shown signs that they are intent on winning now and are willing to spend. The club traded prospects away to make midseason acquisitions and claimed Manny Ramirez despite his substantial salary.
The Rangers' aggressiveness suggests we shouldn’t count them out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but even if they lose their ace to free agency, the Rangers will have four capable starters.
Tommy Hunter, Colby Lewis, C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland were not sure things earlier in the season, but all have built strong cases to remain in next year’s rotation. Hunter had appeared in just 22 major league games going into 2010, but he has since posted a 3.99 ERA and has only allowed 2.5 BB/9. Like many current AL West starters, the 24-year-old has handled major league bats early on in his career.
It took a while for Lewis to figure big league hitters out, but he has become a resounding success for GM Jon Daniels since returning from Japan. So far in 2010, Lewis has a 3.96 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
Wilson, a converted reliever, has also become a staple in Ron Washington’s rotation this year. The 29-year-old had not started a major league game since 2005 when the Rangers added him to their rotation this spring, but he has responded well. He leads the American League in walks, but has a 3.10 ERA and 7.4 K/9.
Derek Holland, who recently replaced Rich Harden in the rotation, strung together 11 dominant starts in Triple A before joining the big league club. He has a 4.93 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in the majors, and the lefty’s still just 23.
The Rangers and Harden have an $11MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout for 2011 and it seems probable that the team will choose to buy the right-hander out. Harden, now in the ‘pen, has walked 6.0 per nine and has a 5.36 ERA. Even if Harden and Lee depart, the Rangers have an assortment of starters to consider if they choose to fill their fifth rotation spot internally:
- Scott Feldman, a 17-game winner a year ago, has a 5.43 ERA and is now on the disabled list.
- Matt Harrison, a 25-year-old lefty with a 3.93 ERA already has extensive experience as a starter.
- Omar Beltre, also on the DL, had a 2.65 ERA in the minors this year, though he struggled in a pair of major league starts.
- Michael Kirkman, who has been excellent out of the Rangers’ pen recently, posted a 3.09 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9. Before the season, Baseball America suggested the left-hander could become a workhorse starter in a major league rotation.
- Brandon McCarthy missed significant time with a shoulder injury this year, but pitched well in Triple A. He makes $1.3MM now, so he won’t come cheap if the Rangers tender him a contract in 2011.
- Neftali Feliz has value out of the bullpen and will be even more important in the late innings if Frank Francisco leaves via free agency. Still, Feliz has the stuff to be a number one starter.
- Other starting pitching prospects, like Martin Perez, Joseph Wieland and Neil Ramirez, are further away from contributing to the big league rotation.
Bringing Lee back would keep things simple. The Rangers then trot him out on Opening Day 2011 and follow him with Wilson, Lewis, Hunter and, if he earns the spot in Spring Training, Holland. The Rangers have options even if they don’t sign Lee, but retaining the lefty would give them an ace atop the rotation.
Rangers Designate Alex Cora For Assignment
The Rangers designated infielder Alex Cora for assignment to create roster space for Esteban German. The Rangers signed Cora last month after the Mets released him, but the 34-year-old played in just four games for Texas, batting only seven times (he singled twice).
German, 32, has not yet appeared in the majors this season, though he is an eight-year major league veteran. He posted a .280/.371/.388 line at Triple A this year, spending most of his time at short, second and third. The utilityman also played left and center, though the Rangers presumably intend to use German on the infield.