Dodgers Sign Kuroda
UPDATE, 12-15-07 at 6:26pm: Crasnick has an update: it’s for $35-36MM over three years. So he’s no bargain. $35.3MM, to be exact.
UPDATE, 12-15-07 at 3:52pm: Ken Rosenthal checks in, noting that the Dodgers and other clubs were willing to go to four years on Kuroda but he preferred three.
UPDATE, 12-15-07 at 2:25pm: Tony Jackson of the L.A. Daily News reports that the Dodgers have signed Kuroda to a three-year deal worth between $36-40MM, pending a physical. The Dodgers will go with Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Kuroda, and Jason Schmidt if he’s healthy. Esteban Loaiza might have to move to the bullpen for now.
UPDATE, 12-15-07 at 11:32am: Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times says Ned Colletti had multiple conversations with Kuroda’s agent yesterday, and the two sides made "significant progress." The Dodgers still appear to be offering three years and $30MM. Hernandez adds that Arizona continued talking to Kuroda’s agent as well – the addition of Dan Haren apparently doesn’t diminish their interest.
FROM 12-14-07 at 9:50pm:
After all the ruckus about Hiroki Kuroda earlier this week, his agent said today that he still has not reached a decision. The decision is "very close," and may come by the end of the weekend. The Mariners, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Royals have offers out.
No word yet on whether the D’Backs will pull their offer after snagging Dan Haren. I know they’re going with the three-year payroll plan, so they can probably still fit Kuroda in.
Tony Clark Won’t Be Back With D’Backs
MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert talked to free agent first baseman Tony Clark recently, learning that the Diamondbacks have pulled their two-year offer to him off the table in light of their recent moves.
The acquisition of Chris Burke eliminated the bench spot that might’ve gone to Clark. While a few teams mentioned the idea of a full-time role, Clark hasn’t received other concrete offers.
The Rangers have acquired Ben Broussard, so they’re probably out on Clark. The Rays will get their leadership from Cliff Floyd. The Twins probably don’t have room for Clark anymore. The Dodgers may still have their eye on him, but beyond that his opportunities are shrinking fast.
Dan Haren Trade Analysis
The first domino fell tonight as an ace starter, Dan Haren, was dealt to the Diamondbacks for a bevy of prospects. I believe the D’Backs won this one. Let’s dig into the details.
Take Haren, a horse of an American League pitcher, and throw him in the easier league. The D’Backs got themselves a bona fide ace to pair with Brandon Webb, and they get him for three years at a reasonable price. He makes a mere $16.25MM over 2008-10; he’s worth at least three times that amount. (Arizona also gets 26 year-old reliever Connor Robertson, who hasn’t really conquered Triple A yet.)
To balance out the immense value of Haren, the A’s get six young players. Four of them represent the #1, 3, 7, and 8th ranked prospects on Baseball America’s top ten for the team.
Carlos Gonzalez, 22, is the stud of the group. He can play right or center and has definite star potential. However, he’s no lock to become Carlos Beltran or Jeff Francoeur.
Southpaw starter Brett Anderson turns 20 in February. He’s more about polish and command than stuff, and is a curious guy to be the main pitching prospect in the Haren deal. He’ll try to tackle Double A in 2008.
We’ve discussed 21 year-old first baseman Chris Carter recently; the D’Backs just acquired him for Carlos Quentin. Who knew it was setting up a Haren deal. He’s a slow guy with massive power and plenty of strikeouts. He’ll give High A ball a try in ’08.
Outfielder Aaron Cunningham turns 22 in April. He’s one of those guys who doesn’t do anything poorly but isn’t great at any one skill either. Baseball America thinks he’ll become a solid fourth outfielder.
24 year-old southpaw Dana Eveland came to Arizona along with Doug Davis. He’s drawn David Wells comparisons and has proven himself in the high minors. He missed a lot of ’07 with a torn tendon in his pitching hand.
Greg Smith is a 24 year-old southpaw starter with a good curveball and mediocre fastball. His strikeout rate was just 5.85 per nine at Triple A in ’07.
I’m surprised Billy Beane didn’t get more "sure thing" young players for his best trading chip. Gonzalez will probably pan out, but he really needed a high octane near-MLB young gun starter too and he didn’t get it. I will give him credit for spreading out his risk over six prospects, though. Josh Byrnes gets an ace without giving up anyone he needed in ’08.
Dissecting The Jose Valverde Trade
Regular MLBTR readers know I have mostly been a harsh critic of Ed Wade’s short tenure as the Astros’ GM. Well, not this time. He made an excellent deal in acquiring Jose Valverde for Chris Burke, Chad Qualls, and Juan Gutierrez.
Valverde, 27, is a nasty shut-down closer with two seasons before free agency. He gets strikeouts by the bushel and can handle the ninth in a tough hitter’s ballpark.
Burke was once the 10th overall pick in the 2001 draft, but he turns 27 in March. His best year was a .765 OPS in 2006. The D’Backs hope he can match that and take over for Orlando Hudson after the 2007 season. I have to think his trade value was minimal.
Qualls, 29, has three seasons before free agency. He’s quietly compiled a 3.39 ERA in 284 career innings. He had a solid strikeout rate last year and also posted a strong groundball rate near 60%. Josh Byrnes is gambling that Qualls is nearly Valverde’s equal, just without the fancy 40-save season.
Gutierrez, 24, didn’t impress as a starter in Triple A or the bigs this year. Baseball America recently ranked him as the Astros’ fourth best prospect, with an excellent heater and sometimes plus changeup. He may end up in relief, but is an intriguing arm.
This trade could definitely work out for Byrnes and Co. – they gave up two years of Valverde for 12 years of Burke, Qualls, and Gutierrez. If Qualls can be 80% as good as Valverde, the D’Backs win the deal on service time alone.
I just question whether Byrnes got the best possible package for Valverde. The Astros, meanwhile, did a nice job getting a possibly elite closer for a reasonable package.
Royals Acquire Alberto Callaspo
Interesting move today, as the Royals sent 24 year-old minor league starter Billy Buckner to the Diamondbacks for 24 year-old second baseman Alberto Callaspo.
Buckner, a labrum surgery survivor, has a plus curveball according to Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein. Goldstein adds that he’s able to get groundballs and projects as a fourth starter. Throw him in the NL, maybe he could even become a #3.
Callaspo is one of the better second base prospects out there, but keep in mind that good prospects rarely come up at that position. He almost never whiffs, and plays strong defense. The high contact approach led to a .341 average in Triple A this year. That the D’Backs shipped him off could imply they want to sign Orlando Hudson long-term. Perhaps Callaspo’s off-field indiscretions played into the decision. At any rate he’s a nice addition for the Royals.
Mariners Leading For Kuroda?
John Hickey has an update on Hiroki Kuroda this morning. It seems the Mariners, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks are competing for his services. Kuroda only wants a three-year deal, giving himself a chance to go back to Japan for the 2011 season if he chooses. According to Hickey, "Kuroda’s final decision will be between the Dodgers and the Mariners."
- Mariners: Hickey thinks they’re in the lead with a three-year offer in the $33-36MM range. The rumors of a four-year offer were false.
- Dodgers: They’re at 3/30 and are considered the Mariners’ biggest competition.
- Diamondbacks: Hickey says they’re also close to 3/30 but on the fringes, which might imply his source was not aware of their recently improved offer.
It seems Kuroda will make a decision within a week or so. Maybe by then the starting pitching market will start moving.
D’Backs Improve Offer For Kuroda
Originally the Diamondbacks came in at three years and $27MM for coveted Japanese starter Hiroki Kuroda. That wasn’t going to cut it. Nick Piecoro reports that they’ve improved their offer, adding money to the last two years but not increasing the term.
Jon Heyman suggested on Thursday that Kuroda could require as much as $15MM annually. That’s a far cry from $9MM a year. My guess is that the D’Backs improved their offer to three years, $36MM or so. Thoughts?
D’Backs Put Offer On Table For Haren
According to John Mahnke of the East Valley Tribune, the Diamondbacks have a trade offer out to the A’s for Dan Haren. The package includes Carlos Gonzalez, Emilio Bonifacio, and Brett Anderson – but not Max Scherzer.
Gonzalez is apparently the headliner – the A’s would try him in center field even though he’s mostly played right. Mahnke says Gonzalez hasn’t appeared in a winter league game in over a week, and that’s a sign that he’s part of a possible trade.
It’d be surprising to see Josh Byrnes pull this off without giving up any young Major Leaguers. However, none have been named as part of Arizona’s offer as of yet. The D’Backs are one of few teams that could pull this off without disrupting their big league club much. Pairing Brandon Webb with Haren could really help the team plow through playoff series.
D’Backs Still Searching For A Starter
The D’Backs’ loss of Livan Hernandez should become official today when he declines their offer of arbitration. That leaves the team with a rotation of Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, and Micah Owings. The Big Unit is a question mark, so a starter must be acquired.
Back on November 15th, Nick Piecoro noted the team’s interest in Matt Clement and Bartolo Colon. But the Diamondbacks are sticking to their no bonuses/no escalator clauses mandate. So that pair will probably look elsewhere.
Hiroki Kuroda received a three-year offer and a pitch video featuring Randy Johnson. He’ll visit Arizona next week. If he chooses Seattle, L.A., or Kansas City, the D’Backs will have to move on. It’s rumored that the Ms added a fourth year to their offer.
The big name is Dan Haren. Jack Magruder says Arizona’s proposal included two of Carlos Gonzalez, Emilio Bonifacio, and Brett Anderson. Magruder believes the A’s are also seeking Major Leaguers, which makes sense. So that huge untouchables list might have to be compromised if the D’Backs are to get Haren.
Three-Team Deal Fell Through
Quick note from MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. He has a source indicating that the Diamondbacks were close to a three-team trade with the Rays and another club, but it fell through. Any guesses? Something involving the Astros and Luke Scott, maybe? Ed Wade spoke of multiteam deals that didn’t work out.