Braves Looking To Trade Giles
Just got word from a reputable, well-connected source out of Atlanta. Excellent timing, as Braves fans have been clamoring for any indication of a deal.
According to my source, the Braves are serious about trading Marcus Giles and using Wilson Betemit at second base. The club loves Betemit’s bat and he’s earned a chance as a regular. The Braves have gotten a paltry .235/.328/.349 line out of Giles in 238 ABs this year.
Fantasy players often ask me what happened to the 28 year-old Giles, and I don’t have a good answer. His PECOTA projection of .284/.363/.449 seemed about right given his last three seasons. Giles is not blaming April’s strained finger ligament, but you have to wonder if he’s completely healthy. He’s making $3.85MM this year and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2007 season.
Betemit has only played three games in his career at second base, but the team thinks he’s capable. He’s always shown decent power, slugging .425 in the minor leagues. But this year’s .524 mark in 103 ABs is beyond even his highest expectations.
There was no word on which teams are interested in Giles, but the Cardinals are a possible fit.
Who Could Use Melvin Mora?
Melvin Mora is still a pretty good third baseman, tied for tenth best in baseball in 2005 according to WARP. He enters his age 34 season with free agency looming. Mora set a deadline for today for the Orioles to work out a contract extension with him, but Orioles VP Jim Duquette is pretty much ignoring that. Reports say Mora wants $10MM annually, but there is no indication on a number of years.
Mora will make just $4MM in 2006, and he should be worth about twice that. He can only hope he ages like Jeff Kent, one of his top comparables according to Baseball Prospectus. Kent, so far, has been quite productive during his age 34-37 seasons, hitting .298/.362/.531 over 576 games. That included 115 HRs.
I wouldn’t say the Orioles and Mora’s agent are at an impasse yet, but one can at least envision a scenario in which Mora is placed on the trading block between now and July 31st. If the Orioles don’t want to hang on to him, they’d be wise to try to get some value before he leaves.
Here’s a rundown of teams that have questions at third base and could be looking reinforcements at some point. While it’s true that Mora is capable of playing outfield, we’ll stick to the hot corner.
Red Sox: They have the depth to cover a complete Mike Lowell collapse. But if the team wants to upgrade from Youkilis/Choi at the corners, Mora would add dependability. Of course, we all know that deals between division rivals are rare.
Twins: Michael Cuddyer still might be ready for Opening Day despite a strained oblique. He’s the fallback option for Tony Batista, assuming Jason Kubel and/or Lew Ford can handle right field. Batista isn’t off to a great start this year and he’s anything but a lock. Mora’s affordable salary would be attractive to Terry Ryan, though he’d have to part with some young pitching to him.
Braves: Moving Chipper Jones to first and acquiring Mora for third base would be a huge net gain for the Braves’ offense and defense. It would also help keep Chipper healthy. I don’t see it happening, but it’s worth noting.
Phillies: The Phils could really, really use a solid third baseman right now. The hot corner is easily the offense’s weak spot. There have been whispers that David Bell is mulling over retirement, according to Will Carroll.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon‘s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities
There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.
1. He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.
2. Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).
3. The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006. Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506. Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.
4. Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs. According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.
The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee. Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name. Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.
Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.
Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF. If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.
White Sox – I don’t see it. They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth. I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.
Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny. Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.
Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency. J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind. They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.
Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely. Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.
Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.
My ranking of the most likely suitors: Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs. I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.
Brad Lidge Could Be Available
I first heard the Astros might consider trading Brad Lidge a few days ago, when Dayn Perry tossed it out there. Perry mentioned that Lidge could go to Atlanta, and here’s what I said:
"Could the Braves somehow emerge with the best closer on the market? One who no one even knew was on the market? I wouldn’t put it past Schuerholz. I can’t see Houston doing the deal for anything less than catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia or shortstop Elvis Andrus."
I still feel that the Braves are the frontrunner. Lidge doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2008 season, so it’s not like the Astros would make this deal to snag whatever they could get before Lidge departs for the big bucks. Whatever team gets Lidge gets him for three solid years and will pay a below-market salary for it.
Given that, it makes sense that the Astros would look to improve their team now and not in two years. So Saltalamacchia and Andrus might not be the right kind of players for this deal. Major League ready lefty starter Chuck James might be a start in a Lidge deal. Anthony Lerew would also fit the bill. The dealbreaker, though, might be Marcus Giles. Giles will be a free agent after 2007, and the Astros can’t expect to run Craig Biggio out there forever.
John Lopez wrote about trading Lidge in an article for the Houston Chronicle yesterday. Lopez’s logic against the Orioles and Reds makes sense. Those teams are not a top-flight closer away from competing. But Lopez also dimisses the Boston Red Sox simply because Manny wouldn’t fit with Houston.
I think the Red Sox could become major players for Lidge, but Ramirez doesn’t have to be involved. Even outside of Andy Marte, the club has enough young talent to at least get a meeting with Astros GM Tim Purpura. Pitchers Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, and Craig Hansen can be contributers in 2006 and beyond, and Boston would love a rock-solid alternative to Keith Foulke.
Lopez goes on to write that the Phillies look like the only legitimate possibility for a deal. Obviously I disagree with that. It doesn’t make sense for the Phils to leave a gaping hole in their offense in order to craft a Yankee-like bullpen.
What other teams have a strong need at closer and the talent to swing a deal for Lidge?
Scanning the Closer Watch, I don’t see any. The Orioles and Reds remain dark horses, but the Red Sox and Braves seem to be the best fits.
What do you think?
Braves Deal Estrada For Cormier And Villarreal
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports continues to scoop the vast majority of trades going on at the Winter Meetings. This time, he's telling us that the Braves sent Johnny Estrada to the Diamondbacks for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal.
The Braves were dealing from a position of strength since Brian McCann is more than ready to take over full-time catching duty. The 21 year-old skipped Triple A and held up nicely in 180 Major League at-bats this year. He's not the defensive catcher that Estrada is, but he's not bad with the glove. Estrada won a Silver Slugger award for catchers and was named to the All-Star team after his 2004, but is unlikely to approach that level offensively again.
Lance Cormier is a 25 year-old right-handed reliever. He's been lousy through 124 Major League innings – 6.21 ERA, lots of homers, weak strikeout rate, and tons of baserunners allowed. He showed potential with a nice run at Triple A Tucson in 2004.
Born in Mexico, Oscar Villarreal is a 24 year-old righty reliever. Despite high walk totals, Villarreal had a spectacular 2003 in relief for the Diamondbacks, pitching 98 innings of 2.57 ERA ball. He'll be representing Mexico in the World Baseball Classic in March if the Braves allow it. Villarreal has suffered some major injuries in his career, undergoing nerve transposition surgery in his arm as well as suffering through rotator cuff problems and a strained hip flexor.
It'd be a stretch to say that this deal improves the Braves' bullpen, especially without Leo Mazzone there to work his magic on the two relievers.
New Rumors: Luis Gonzalez, Brad Lidge
In his latest article, Dayn Perry threw out some interesting trade bait names that I hadn’t heard too much previously. Assuming Perry ran them by Rosenthal for a gut check, there could be some truth to these.
Brad Lidge to the Braves. Now there’s an intriguing thought. Could the Braves somehow emerge with the best closer on the market? One who no one even knew was on the market? I wouldn’t put it past Schuerholz. I can’t see Houston doing the deal for anything less than catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia or shortstop Elvis Andrus.
Luis Gonzalez to the Cubs. This one occurred to me back on November 7th, but it was only idle speculation at that point:
"Speaking of Kevin Mench, why do teams desire him? A redux of Luis Gonzalez would be better for the Cubs. The deal would make sense for the Diamondbacks as well, as Gonzo and Shawn Green are blocking uber-prospect Carlos Quentin."
Troy Glaus to the Pirates. Stranger things have happened, I guess. The Bucs would at least have a nasty 1-2 punch in Glaus and Jason Bay. Littlefield does have a stable of young arms with which he could broker a deal, if he’s willing to cough up the cash.
Kris Benson to the Royals. Ugh. Not so sure if Anna would sit well in Kansas City. Benson as the de facto ace on a team going nowhere doesn’t sit well, either.
Braves’ Andy Marte Available?
Are you familiar with Atlanta Braves’ third baseman Andy Marte? Before the 2005 season, Baseball Prospectus rated him the #1 prospect in the game.
At age 21, Marte had an excellent 2/3 of a season for Triple A in ’05. Marte posted a .372 OBP and .506 SLG for the Richmond Braves. After Chipper Jones went down with an injury, Marte got a brief call-up to the Show on June 7th. He didn’t play regularly, and made several trips back and forth to the minors after that.
There had been whispers of Marte’s availability through trade, but it didn’t seem logical to me. Deal away a 21 year-old top prospect simply because of Chipper Jones? If there’s one thing Jones does not do particularly well, it’s play third base. I know he’s the well-respected veteran, but a move back to left field to clear the way for Marte seemed like a no-brainer.
On Friday, Will Carroll casually mentioned that Marte could be had for Julio Lugo:
"The Braves are said to be offering BP’s 2005 #1 prospect Andy Marte in return, which would be a nice deal both ways, considering that Marte has fallen as far as fourth on the organization’s depth chart at third base."
Now, I knew Marte was unpopular, but fourth on the depth chart? How did Pete Orr supplant Marte? But Carroll proved correct. Check out this excerpt about Marte from John Schuerholz’s interview Friday with Talking Chop:
Joe Hamrahi: Is there any possibility that Marte goes to camp at a different position or tries to learn a new position?
John Schuerholz: I don’t think so. I don’t think so. He’s too young…he’s a primary dominant third base candidate for a major league team in the very near future, whether it be for our team or someone else’s team. I mean this guy’s total package, offensively and defensively, his power potential, and excellent defensive skills make him a legitimate major league third baseman. Right now, though, there’s a guy named Chipper Jones ahead of him.
Italics added by me for emphasis. That’s not something you say about the future of your franchise. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that Marte is trade bait simply because he’s blocked by Chipper Jones. Now, the Braves have a history of trading away top-billed prospects and having them not pan out. But Marte looks like a can’t-miss future Eric Chavez (and then some).
With that in mind, which teams have a need at third base and could give the Braves the players they need?
Dodgers – L.A. has a stacked farm system, but the Braves are probably looking for a shortstop and/or a closer. While Cesar Izturis could be part of a future package, a deal probably won’t happen now for Marte.
Brewers – The Brew Crew could definitely give Marte an everyday opportunity at the hot corner. Problem is, the Braves don’t have a strong need for Lyle Overbay.
Twins – I’d love to see Terry Ryan get creative and make a deal for Marte. He’s got starting pitching and bullpen depth to deal from.
Devil Rays – Ultimately, they’re still in the best shape to acquire Marte. It’s sounding more and more like Baez and Lugo for Marte would appease both clubs.
Where’s Javier Vazquez Headed?
Ken Rosenthal had an informative article yesterday about starting pitchers likely to be traded. It’s not loaded with new information, but it’s a handy summary. One bit of new info (at least for me) was a list of likely suitors for Javier Vazquez. Rosenthal named the Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Indians as likely to be interested. In the same sentence, Rosenthal mentioned that Vazquez’s trade request was to join a team closer to his home in Puerto Rico.
Vazquez was born in Ponce, Puerto Rico. I’m not sure if he still lives there, but it’s a reasonable assumption. If Vazquez’s true main concern is to be as physically close to possible to Ponce, and Rosenthal’s list of suitors is accurate, it would be helpful to know the distance from Ponce to each team’s city. That’s why I compiled this handy chart.
| Distance from Ponce, Puerto Rico (miles) | |
| Atlanta | 1548 |
| New York | 1632 |
| Cleveland | 1851 |
| Chicago | 2064 |
| Phoenix | 3000 |
You can see why he was getting a little homesick playing in Arizona. If geography is any indicator, Atlanta is the frontrunner. Maybe they would ship Kyle Davies and change over to the D’Backs.
Ah, but what if Vazquez simply wants to be near large numbers of Puerto Ricans? New York blows other U.S. cities out of the water, of course.
How about Puerto Ricans as a percent of the total city population? Not a big surprise:
| % of Total Population | |
| New York, NY | 9.0 |
| Chicago, IL | 1.8 |
| Cleveland, OH | 1.6 |
| Atlanta, GA | 0.5 |
| Arizona | 0.4 |
Though Atlanta is a little closer to Puerto Rico, the Vazquez should feel right at home with the Mets. Indeed, such a trade is on the table.
Cameron For Nady Rumor Has Legs
A new Ken Rosenthal column was just posted over at Fox Sports. Some interesting nuggets in there, including a few that confirm rumors we reported on earlier.
The rumored Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady swap we mentioned on Sunday may have legs. Rosenthal adds that the Mets could spin Nady into a Manny Ramirez package if they don’t want to platoon him with Mike Jacobs. Nady could make sense for the Red Sox, a team with question marks at third and second base.
Cameron could also end up in Baltimore or Arizona according to Rosenthal.
The column mentions some interest coming from the Braves on Trevor Hoffman. I don’t buy this matchup, considering Hoffman’s outlandish demands. The Braves don’t seem like the types to give three years or $27MM to a closer.
Rosenthal also adds some info to the Julio Lugo to the Braves rumor. We confirmed before that the Braves would need more than Lugo to part with Andy Marte. Rosenthal suggests Johnny Estrada and another prospect as a more reasonable package going to the D-Rays.
Thanks to Brian B.