NL East Notes: Phillies, Mets, Morgan
Jimmy Rollins said earlier today that there's a "good chance" he re-signs with the Phillies after the season. Here are some more updates from around the NL East, where all five teams are in offseason mode…
- Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM contract ranks fourth on Joe Posnanski's list of the ten worst contracts in baseball at SI.com. Howard, whose deal kicks in next season, is "becoming a less and less useful player all the time," Posnanski writes.
- The Phillies interviewed Orioles scouting director Joe Jordan for their director of player development position this week, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Philadelphia now has a short window to decide whether they're going to offer Jordan the job, which previously fell under Chuck LaMar's responsibilities.
- The Phillies will look to sign a free agent closer this offseason and a division rival could be interested in similar relievers. GM Sandy Alderson has hinted that the Mets will find their next closer on the free agent market, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
- A Spring Training conflict between Jayson Werth and Nyjer Morgan nearly escalated to the point that punches were thrown, according to Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post. Now a member of the Brewers, Morgan has emerged as a star (along with his many alter egos).
Epstein ‘On Cusp’ Of Deal With Cubs
8:25pm: ESPN's Karl Ravech hears that the compensation would involve prospects and/or cash, but no MLB players. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears that the Red Sox wouldn't saddle the Cubs with bad contracts in the proposed arrangement and notes that Epstein remains undecided about the possible change (Twitter links).
8:05pm: Epstein would need Boston's approval to bring employees with him to Chicago, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Carrie Muskat of MLB.com hears that the Cubs made an offer and Epstein is now deciding whether to leave the Red Sox (Twitter link).
7:20pm: Epstein's nearing a deal with the Cubs, Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com confirms. The deal isn't done yet, as some issues other than compensation have to be resolved. Meanwhile, Yahoo's Tim Brown hears that Red Sox ownership is making a play to keep Epstein, but won't ask him to continue in a job he doesn't want (Twitter link).
5:44pm: Boston GM Theo Epstein is "on the cusp" of leaving the Red Sox for a job with the Cubs, according to Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald. Red Sox ownership still hopes to retain Epstein and if he is to leave, Boston will demand "something real" as compensation.
Epstein's proposed deal with the Cubs would include more power than he has in Boston, according to Buckley. The teams could make an announcement within a day or two and the situation will be "resolved very soon."
When Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts outlined his ideal GM candidate after firing Jim Hendry, he said he wanted someone with a commitment to player development and a strong analytical background who came from a background of success. Epstein, who became Boston's GM in 2002, certainly qualifies.
The Red Sox won two World Series titles under Epstein (2004, 2007) and have made six playoff appearances since 2003. They missed the postseason for the second consecutive year in 2011 after a September slide that cost manager Terry Francona his job. Our Transaction Tracker has every one of Epstein's moves as GM. Check out Tim Dierkes' look ahead to the Cubs' offseason for a preview of Epstein's first winter in the Windy City.
Orioles Considering Several GM Candidates
The Orioles have assembled a list of six candidates to be their next general manager, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Josh Byrnes of the Padres, Gerry Hunsicker of the Rays, J.P. Ricciardi of the Mets, Thad Levine of the Rangers, Tony LaCava of the Blue Jays and Dan Jennings of the Marlins are considered possible successors to president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail, according to Olney.
The Orioles are forming a panel to interview the candidates, Olney writes. Others may enter the mix for the position, which MacPhail announced he will not be returning to.
Manager Buck Showalter and owner Peter Angelos are expected to meet tomorrow to discuss candidates, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Connolly notes that the Orioles haven't asked for permission to interview anyone at this point and suggests that the club won't consider more than five candidates.
Hunsicker recently told Murray Chass that he'll listen if a team expresses interest in him as a GM, but he doesn't sound eager to leave the Rays. "This is a unique situation," he said. "This means a whole lot more to me than running a baseball team under less than ideal circumstances.” Ricciardi told Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal that he'd listen if the Orioles contact him (Twitter link).
Connolly suggests former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer, Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock and Rangers senior director of player development Scott Servais are also possible candidates. For more information on GM Candidates in MLB, check out our list.
Yankees Notes: Cashman, Sabathia, Swisher
There's a 100% chance GM Brian Cashman signs a new contract with the Yankees before long, based on what Joel Sherman of the New York Post is hearing (Twitter link). However, many questions about the 2012 Yankees persist. Here's a look ahead at some of the team's upcoming decisions…
- The Yankees haven't had any contract talks with Cashman at this point, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Feinsand hasn't heard from anyone who thinks the sides will fail to reach a deal.
- C.C. Sabathia told Mark Hale of the New York Post that baseball is a business, while acknowledging that it would be difficult to leave New York. The left-hander will likely opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his seven-year, $161MM deal. Cashman says the Yankees haven't started talking extension with Sabathia.
- Manager Joe Girardi says he doesn't want to imagine his rotation without Sabathia, according to Feinsand (all Twitter links). Girardi says he's sure the Yankees will look to add top-of-the-rotation pitching even if Sabathia returns.
- Girardi says he expects Alex Rodriguez to start at third, rather than DH, in 2012, according to Feinsand.
- Sherman knows that it'd be easiest for the Yankees to pick up Nick Swisher's $10.25MM option and work Jesus Montero into the lineup, but he makes the case that Carlos Beltran is in many ways preferable to Swisher. It will cost more than $10.25MM to sign Beltran, who could obtain a three-year deal this winter.
Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles
Once the Orioles sort out the uncertainty in their front office, they'll have to improve a disappointing rotation and add balance to their promising lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nick Markakis, OF: $43.23MM through 2014
- J.J. Hardy, SS: $22.25MM through 2014
- Brian Roberts, 2B: $20MM through 2013
- Mark Reynolds, 3B: $8.33MM through 2012
- Kevin Gregg, RP: $5.8MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Jo-Jo Reyes, SP: $1.5MM (non-tender candidate)
- Brad Bergesen, SP: $1.4MM (may miss super two cutoff)
- Alfredo Simon, RP: $1.3MM (may miss super two cutoff)
- Jeremy Accardo, RP: $1.3MM (non-tender candidate)
- Willie Eyre, RP: $700K (non-tender candidate)
- Robert Andino, UT IF: $1.2MM
- Adam Jones, OF: $6.6MM
- Jim Johnson, RP: 2.0MM
- Jeremy Guthrie, SP: $8.2MM
- Luke Scott, OF/DH: $6.4MM
Free Agents
- Vladimir Guerrero (Type B DH), Cesar Izturis (unranked IF)
The Orioles' next GM has one of the toughest assignments in baseball: pass the up-and-coming Blue Jays, the deep-pocketed Red Sox, the perennially competitive Rays and the powerhouse Yankees. This job will take more than one year.
At this point, it's not clear who will be leading the Orioles' baseball operations department going forward. President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has stepped aside, so Baltimore will search for a new general manager. We do know manager Buck Showalter will remain in the dugout next year.
It will take a skilled general manager with a long-term vision to mold the Orioles into a contender. They are short on pitching and entered the season with the weakest farm system in the division, according to Baseball America. The Rays provide hope, since they have three playoff berths in the past four years despite having a lower payroll than the Orioles and a far worse stadium. Success on a budget is possible in the AL East, but even MacPhail couldn't turn the franchise into a contender.
The Orioles experienced many disappointments in 2011 and the biggest letdown of all occurred in the starting rotation, where young, promising pitchers failed to develop as swiftly as expected. Baltimore finished last in MLB in rotation ERA (5.39), innings (881) and quality starts (60) and they weren't particularly close to the 29th ranked team in any of those categories.
Brian Matusz had a 10.69 ERA in 12 starts; Jake Arrieta struggled, then underwent elbow surgery in August; Chris Tillman's season stats were disappointing; Zach Britton had an up-and-down season. The Orioles need better pitching in 2012 and they're in a difficult position since they can't rely on their young starters, but it's too early to give up on them.
Though Jeremy Guthrie led the league in losses again, he was a steady presence in the rotation. His durability (three consecutive years of 200+ innings) sets him up for a generous arbitration payday of $8MM or more. He's eligible for free agency after 2012 and could be trade bait this winter. If the Orioles part with the durable 32-year-old without getting pitching back, their rotation will look even thinner. Along with Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, and Britton, pitchers Tommy Hunter and Brad Bergesen are internal candidates to start in 2012.
The Orioles will likely pursue starting pitching in trades and on the free agent market this offseason. Free agent C.J. Wilson would have appeal, though squeezing his salary into the payroll won't necessarily be easy. Assuming the front office brings back Jones, Johnson, Guthrie, Bergesen, Simon and Andino through arbitration, the Orioles will have about $64MM in commitments for 2012 (a figure that doesn't account for minimum salary players). They've worked with payrolls of $74MM and $87MM in the past two seasons, so they figure to have $10-25MM to spend, depending on how much owner Peter Angelos has budgeted.
Wilson isn't the only prominent free agent who could fill a void for the Orioles. Prince Fielder would instantly become the team's best hitter and strengthen an offense that finished seventh in the American League with 708 runs scored. The Orioles would have to commit $100MM to a player for the first time in franchise history and surrender their second-round draft pick in 2012 to obtain Fielder.
Baltimore's first base plan will also affect the future of Mark Reynolds, who may be better off at first or DH than at third. Chris Davis is another free swinger who played both corner infield positions down the stretch and may start in 2012.
Vladimir Guerrero probably won't be back and it seems unlikely that the Orioles will offer arbitration after his so-so season. Luke Scott, another DH option, missed the final two and a half months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He's a non-tender candidate, but the Orioles figure to have interest in retaining him on a one-year deal if his recovery goes well. Nolan Reimold has earned consideration in left field, Scott's primary defensive position, after posting a .973 OPS in September. The Orioles will also have to determine how many roster spots they can devote to powerful hitters who strike out a lot and don't play premium positions such as Scott, Davis and Reynolds.
Brian Roberts' injuries make second base difficult to project (Roberts is now recovering from a concussion). Robert Andino filled in admirably in 2011 and he'll be back next year, possibly with 24-year-old Ryan Adams, another candidate to play the position. The Orioles can't be expecting much from Roberts, who has played just 98 games in the past two seasons.
Four position players – J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters — form the Orioles' unofficial core, as they're all under control through 2013 or beyond. It won't be surprising if Baltimore explores extensions for Jones and Wieters at some point in the offseason. There figures to be more urgency to lock up Jones, who would be eligible for free agency after 2013.
There's work to be done in the bullpen, where Jim Johnson's standout season helped mask Kevin Gregg's disappointing one. Both are likely back in the bullpen next year, although there has been talk about making Johnson a starter. Other holdovers include Jason Berken, Chris Jakubauskas, Clay Rapada, Alfredo Simon, Troy Patton, Pedro Strop and non-tender candidates Jo-Jo Reyes, Jeremy Accardo and Willie Eyre.
From a statistical standpoint, the Orioles had a below-average bullpen this year, but no manager relied on his relievers more than Showalter, who needed 565 2/3 innings of relief because of the rotation's struggles. An improved rotation would lessen the strain on the bullpen in 2012. The Orioles have spent on relievers in recent years (including some regrettable deals) and it makes sense for them to restore bullpen depth and add relievers this offseason.
For the Orioles to progress, their rotation has to improve significantly. Baltimore figures to be in the market for starters and relievers this offseason as they look to improve upon the disappointment of 2011. They need position players, too, and could shop for help at first base, DH and left field and move the likes of Davis and Reynolds around depending on who they obtain. But offseason acquisitions can only do so much for the Orioles, who need to see their homegrown pitchers evolve from prospects to contributors if they are to start their ascent in the American League East.
Guthrie, Orioles Have Not Discussed Long-Term Deal
Jeremy Guthrie has been a steady presence in the Orioles’ rotation for the past five seasons, but they haven’t approached the right-hander about a multiyear deal. Guthrie says he hasn’t discussed the possibility with the team since he and his agent brought it up last offseason, according to Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.
Guthrie knows that the team would have approached him if they wanted to and says he doesn’t expect long-term security from the Orioles. However, he sounds open to the idea of a multiyear deal.
"You never take anything for granted or assume you are entitled to anything,” Guthrie said. “So to think that a team should offer me any type of contract beyond one year, I don't assume that. I've always just thought I'll go out and play year-to-year.”
Guthrie points out that the Orioles could trade or non-tender him, but he expects that a one-year deal is “one of the more likely scenarios.” He earned $5.75MM this season as a second-year arbitration eligible player and posted a 4.33 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 208 innings. It was the third consecutive season that the 32-year-old has surpassed the 200-inning plateau, so he will likely reach $8MM through arbitration and may approach $10MM. Guthrie, a 2002 first round pick, would be eligible for free agency after 2012.
Guthrie is a client of CAA Sports agent Brodie Van Wagenen, as our Agency Database shows.
Yankees Notes: Sabathia, Posada, Cashman
The Yankees won 97 regular season games and two more in the playoffs, but their quest for a 28th World Championship fell short in the Bronx last night, as the Tigers beat them 3-2. Here are some links as the Yankees look ahead to another offseason…
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times says retaining C.C. Sabathia is the most pressing task of the Yankees' offseason. If they let him slip away, the Red Sox could have interest, as Kepner points out.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com points out that the Yankees' biggest offseason need is once again starting pitching and runs through a number of other issues facing the Bronx Bombers this winter.
- Sabathia can opt out of the four years remaining on his seven-year, $161MM contract after the season and the left-hander says he can't wrap his head around the decision yet, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. However, Sabathia repeated that he loves it in New York.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post suspects that the Yankees will wait, instead of extending Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson this offseason. Both players are eligible for free agency after 2013 (assuming New York exercises Cano's two options).
- Alex Rodriguez told Sherman that the Yankees' season was a "major failure" though they finished with the best record in the American League. Rodriguez says he has a lot to prove and is looking forward to the challenge of "coming back with a vengeance."
- As Mike Vorkunov of the Star-Ledger explains, Jorge Posada may have played his final game in Yankee pinstripes and the catcher turned DH is emotional about the possibility.
- Brian Cashman reiterated that he wants to return to the Yankees, according to Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. The GM's contract expires after the season, but the Yankees want him back, so a new deal appears likely.
GM Candidate: Logan White
MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’ve been bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with Logan White, the Dodgers’ assistant GM of scouting.
Logan White oversaw the selection of high-profile pitchers such as Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Kenley Jansen, so he knows a good arm when he sees one. And in retrospect, White acknowledges that his own big league prospects were slim when Mariners scout Jeff Malinoff recommended him in the 1984 draft.
“No disrespect to Jeff, I wouldn’t draft me,” White said.
Seattle selected White, then a right-handed pitcher out of Western New Mexico University, in the 23rd round. Three minor league seasons and one shoulder operation later, the former Academic All-American was teaching English and communications at the junior high level. But White returned to baseball as an associate scout with the Mariners before moving on to Baltimore and San Diego. He joined the Dodgers a decade ago and oversaw the selection of current players such as Matt Kemp, Russell Martin and James Loney.
White seeks out analysis beyond the traditional scouting report. He has researched pitching deliveries and the amateur draft to help the Dodgers obtain healthier, more productive players. Today, he oversees amateur and international scouting for the Dodgers as an assistant to GM Ned Colletti.
I spoke to him late in the regular season. Here are some highlights from our conversation:
On his start in scouting:
I don’t want to compare horses to people, but I grew up on a ranch in New Mexico. I grew up around agriculture and when I was in school we did horse judging – we would judge horses and we had to rank them. It sounds funny, but in the end I learned a lot about the gait of a horse and how the horse looked and worked and how the body worked. So there was always an interest for me to try to understand those kinds of things.
On what kind of scout he is:
I think that I’m a person who can understand the delivery, the arm action, the mechanics, how a body works, but also someone who can understand the mental side for the player. I think I was ahead of the curve in understanding that the player’s performance has to follow and I was always looking for backgrounds of success. I’m also a person that likes tools. I know in the game today, particularly in a large-market city like L.A., you have to draft impact players.
I like to think I’m a pretty open-minded evaluator. I’m hopefully not going to miss on David Eckstein and I certainly respect the importance of the kind player he is, but I also know that I can’t make a career out of looking for David Eckstein, because he’s pretty rare. I’m better off looking for Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez and not missing a David Eckstein.
On advanced analysis and traditional scouting:
If you play, you can get labeled as a ‘baseball guy’ who’s not a critical thinker. That’s not necessarily the case for me. I respect that side of what people try to do [advanced analytics]. I’m always open to ways to get better and I’m always a person that’s researching.
On development of his own analytical side:
I think most people, we go back to our life experiences, our educational backgrounds. I’ve always been one who wants to test and see if it works and I think it goes back to my background. When you’re raising cattle and horses and crops, making a living that way, certain things work and certain things don’t.
Some of what I do I call deductive reasoning and you have to have it. And you certainly have to have data and research [as well]. If you have deductive reasoning without research and data, it’s irrelevant.
Reyes Expects To Talk Contract With Mets Soon
Jose Reyes told Newsday’s Nick Klopsis that the Mets haven’t started discussing a new contract with him, but the shortstop hinted that he expects dialogue to begin before long.
"They'll probably start up within the next few days," Reyes said. "But right now, everything's quiet."
The Mets have exclusive negotiating rights with the prospective free agent until five days after the World Series ends. They tried discussing a new contract with Reyes during the summer, but postponed contract talks until after the season ended. Reyes maintains that he wants to re-sign with the Mets, who will likely lower their payroll to the $100-$110MM range for next season.
Reyes finished the 2011 season with a .337/.384/.493 line, 31 doubles, 39 stolen bases and a league-leading 16 triples. He solidified his case for a generous free agent contract last month, when he posted an .854 OPS and won the National League batting title.
Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins
The Twins need to add pitching and stabilize their offense this winter if they are to rebound from an awful 2011.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Joe Mauer, C: $161MM through 2018
- Justin Morneau, 1B: $28MM through 2013
- Denard Span, OF: $14.75MM through 2014
- Nick Blackburn, SP: $10.25MM through 2013
- Carl Pavano, SP: $8.5MM through 2012
- Scott Baker, SP: $6.5MM through 2012
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka, IF: $6.5MM through 2013
Contract Options
- Joe Nathan, RP: $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Jose Mijares, RP: $1MM (non-tender candidate)
- Matt Tolbert, UT IF: $700K (non-tender candidate)
- Phil Dumatrait, RP: $800K (non-tender candidate)
- Kevin Slowey, SP: $2.7MM (non-tender candidate)
- Alexi Casilla, IF: $1.5MM
- Glen Perkins, RP: $1.5MM
- Francisco Liriano, SP: $5.7MM
- Jason Repko, UT OF: $800K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Michael Cuddyer (Type A OF), Jason Kubel (Type B OF), Matt Capps (Type A RP)
They couldn’t score, they couldn’t prevent runs and they couldn’t stay healthy. The story of the 2011 Twins was unpleasant and unexpected for a franchise that finished in last place for the first time since 2000.
Fortunately for Twins fans, the team plays in the winnable AL Central. Two years into the Target Field era, the team is averaging $105MM in payroll in its new open-air facility. They were second in the American League in attendance this year, despite a 63-99 record (their worst regular season mark since 1982, the year before Joe Mauer was born). Owner Jim Pohlad says payroll will be "right up there" again, so the Twins aren't exactly the small market team they once were. In fact, if payroll stays in the $100MM range and they retain Perkins, Casilla, and Liriano through arbitration, GM Bill Smith could have $25-$30MM to commit to 2012 salaries.
He'll need it. Uncertainty prevails in the outfield, the middle infield, the rotation and the bullpen. There's also first base and catcher, where Mauer and Justin Morneau were supposed to provide stability. Mauer spent time on the DL with bilateral leg weakness and pneumonia, while Morneau missed most of the season with concussion symptoms. In the end, the Twins paid the pair $37MM for seven total home runs in 151 total games.
More than anything else, the Twins need the two former MVPs to stay reasonably healthy in 2012. Since the Twins' offseason plans depend on the health of Mauer and Morneau, it makes sense for them to monitor the players' health and adapt their offseason wish list accordingly.
That doesn't mean Smith's completely at the mercy of his stars' recoveries. Two other fixtures in the lineup, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are eligible for free agency. There are arguments in favor of offering both arbitration, though the Twins won't necessarily be prepared to guarantee them raises. The Twins say they'd like Cuddyer back and they've made him an offer, but it appears likely that he'll explore free agency, where he's sure to see many offers.
To establish their interest in DH and corner outfield options like Cuddyer and Kubel, the Twins will have to determine their level of confidence in the likes of Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dinkelman and Chris Parmelee (who showed promising power during the season's final three weeks). Despite their internal options, it seems likely that the Twins will look to sign a corner outfielder if Cuddyer leaves as a free agent.
The Twins could target outfielders with good gloves and match them with defensive stalwarts Ben Revere (say what you will about his arm) and Denard Span to give their pitchers a much-needed edge. Or, the Twins could rely more heavily on the defense of Revere and Span and add a below-average defender who can hit.
The positional uncertainty extends to the Twins' infield. Tsuyoshi Nishioka wasn't at his best in 2011 and the Twins have to determine how he, Alexi Casilla, Trevor Plouffe and non-tender candidate Matt Tolbert fit into their plans. Smith, who traded J.J. Hardy to Baltimore last offseason, will consider adding shortstops from outside the organization and an addition seems likely.
Given their need for pitching and likely interest in outfield bats, a major expenditure at shortstop would be a surprise. Instead, Smith and his front office could browse second-tier free agent options such as Alex Gonzalez at short or stand pat. Another need exists at backup catcher, as Drew Butera's .449 OPS won't be enough in 2012, especially if Mauer spends even less time behind the plate. Jose Molina, 36, is coming off of a strong offensive and defensive season, so he's one relatively affordable option for the Twins to consider.
If the Twins' rotation had met expectations, the team wouldn't have lost 99 games. They ranked 26th in the Majors in rotation ERA (4.64) and still can't strike opponents out (5.8 K/9). They'll look for a bounce-back season from Francisco Liriano, who will slot into the rotation along with Carl Pavano and Scott Baker. The back of the rotation remains unsettled and Smith suggested some starters could pitch out of the 'pen in 2012 (Brian Duensing appears to be one such candidate).
Top prospect Kyle Gibson is out with Tommy John surgery, and alternatives such as Liam Hendriks, Scott Diamond and Anthony Swarzak don't appear to have equal upside. It's hard to imagine a turnaround without an improved rotation, so the Twins will want to consider ways of obtaining starting pitching this offseason.
Minnesota's bullpen never recovered from the losses of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch and was the worst in baseball by many measures. Twins relievers posted 6.3 K/9 (30th in MLB) and a 4.51 ERA (30th in MLB). They were also last in xFIP and SIERA, so this doesn't appear to be a case of bad luck. They'll decline Joe Nathan's option but could bring him back on a one-year deal. Matt Capps' Type A ranking and decline in performance should prevent the Twins from offering arbitration (he would obtain a raise from $7.15MM). Glen Perkins' emergence out of the bullpen, a positive for the Twins in 2011, puts Jose Mijares and Phil Dumatrait in non-tender limbo.
One way or another, the Twins need to obtain a shutdown reliever to pair with Perkins in late innings. The D'Backs, now an inspiration to so many of baseball's last-place teams, turned their bullpen around in one season. It can be done and the Twins must do it to improve upon the dismal results of 2011.
While an arbitration offer to Capps seems unlikely, the Twins could have up to three extra draft picks in 2012. They already have the second overall selection, and scouting director Deron Johnson could have extra picks if Minnesota offers arbitration to Kubel and Cuddyer and they decline.
The Twins need pitching – and lots of it – to be a better team in 2012. They'll probably add a starter and they should add multiple big league relievers. As for position players, it makes sense to offer arbitration to Kubel and Cuddyer before turning to external options. They could use a new shortstop and would do well to pursue a backup catcher who can hit. That's it, you say? Not quite, as the unanswerable question of how much Mauer and Morneau will produce in 2012 remains, and that variable could make the difference between a winning season and further disappointment for Twins fans.