Poll: The NL West

The top four NL West teams are within four games of each other. The Padres could use a bat, and they may need an arm, since they're hesitant to push their young starters too hard. The Rockies (2.0 games back) are hanging around, even with Troy Tulowitzki on the DL, but they could add an infielder. The Dodgers (2.0 games back) aren't going anywhere, though they could use some pitching. And the Giants (4.0 games back) have pitching, but they wouldn't mind adding a big bat before July 31st. 

Considering each team's needs, their ability to make a deal and the standings, let's tackle a tough question:

Which NL West team is best-positioned to win the division?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Potentially Available Outfielders

The market for outfielders includes some highly-priced veterans, some highly productive bats and a trio of Kansas City Royals. Here are the names that teams like the Giants, Padres, Braves and Red Sox are sure to consider over the course of the next two weeks. We've sorted them by 2010 salary:

  • Kosuke Fukudome, $13MM ($13.5MM in 2011) – The Cubs are watching the market for Fukudome, who isn't hitting badly. His .761 OPS could appeal to teams, but the Cubs would have to absorb money in any deal. Fukudome, who has no-trade protection, would likely clear waivers, so the Cubs could attempt to deal him in August.
  • Jose Guillen, $12MM (free agent after 2010) – Guillen is hitting .279/.340/.467 in what has been an up and down season. The Royals appear eager to move the 34-year-old, though it will mean taking on part of his salary. Like Fukudome, Guillen would clear waivers.
  • Jayson Werth, $7MM (free agent after 2010) – Werth, a likely Type A free agent, probably won't go anywhere. The Phillies would listen to offers, but it would be hard to part with his .881 OPS.
  • Corey Hart, $4.8MM (free agent after 2011) – Hart's value may never be higher. He has 21 homers and a league-leading 65 RBI. The Brewers are open to moving him and appear to want young pitching in return.
  • Coco Crisp, $4.75MM ($5.75MM club option or $500K buyout for 2011) – Crisp has hit extremely well in his first 76 trips to the plate since recovering from the chest issue that sidelined him, but teams would likely be hesitant to deal for Crisp, since he has missed so much time. There's a good chance Crisp would clear waivers.
  • David DeJesus, $4.7MM ($6MM club option or $500K buyout for 2011) – DeJesus is hitting .326/.395/.460 and playing well on defense. The Royals are asking for a lot in return and may wait until close to the deadline to make a trade.
  • Josh Willingham, $4.6MM (free agent after 2011) – Willingham offers power (15 home runs) and patience (.411 OBP), so the Nationals may be inclined to keep him. Another National, Adam Dunn, could be available, but Dunn has not played in the outfield this year.
  • Cody Ross, $4.45MM (free agent after 2011) – The Braves have interest in Ross, who appears to be available. He isn't hitting for quite as much power as usual, but still has a .282/.332/.415 line.
  • Xavier Nady, $3.3MM (free agent after 2010) – Nady hasn't hit much, but the Cubs have a surplus of outfielders, so they would presumably part with him.
  • B.J. Upton, $3MM (free agent after 2012) – Back when the Rays were discussing Cliff Lee, it became apparent that they would consider moving Upton. The speedy 25-year-old isn't hitting much this year (.230/.320/.395), but he is on pace for a third consecutive 40-steal season.
  • Jose Bautista, $2.4MM (free agent after 2011) – The former Rule 5 pick leads the league in home runs and walks at a bargain salary, so he will draw interest.
  • Scott Podsednik, $1.65MM ($2MM club option or $100K buyout for 2011) – Podsednik is getting on base (.347 OBP) and doesn't earn much, so he could have appeal this month.
  • Austin Kearns, $750K (free agent after 2010) – Like Podsednik, Kearns is getting on base (.355 OBP) and making an affordable salary. Neither player is hitting for much power, though Kearns offers more thump than Podsednik.
  • The Mets and Rockies have extra outfielders, but they seem content to maintain their depth.
  • Free agents Jermaine Dye and Rocco Baldelli could contribute in the majors.
  • We've already examined the market for potentially available first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops and catchers.

Three Moves That Could Shape The AL Central

The AL Central race tends to last a while. We have seen extra games played to determine the divisional champ each of the past two seasons. This year, the race is as close as ever. The White Sox lead the Tigers by half a game and the Twins by 3.5 games. One or two major trades could shape the pennant race, so let's consider one deal that each contender could realistically make to gain some traction and win the Central:

  • The White Sox could acquire Adam Dunn – This is nothing new, since the White Sox realize Dunn would help them. He has 22 homers and a .959 OPS; current DH Mark Kotsay has six homers and a .709 OPS. Nats GM Mike Rizzo has made it clear that Dunn would cost a lot in terms of prospects, partly because Dunn projects to be a Type A free agent (which means his team can obtain picks in the 2011 draft by offering arbitration). One positive for the White Sox: Dunn may be losing interest in signing an extension that would keep him in D.C.
  • The Tigers could acquire Dan Haren – The back of the Tigers' rotation is thin. Haren's 4.36 ERA isn't astounding, but his strikeout and walk numbers are strong (8.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). It doesn't take a sabermetrician to notice that batters are hitting 42 points higher than usual against Haren, so he may have been unlucky so far this year. He's not cheap, though. About $3.6MM remains on his contract this season and nearly $33MM remains overall. The Tigers won't be paying Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson eight-figure salaries next season, so they may be able to absorb the hit. 
  • The Tigers could consider shortstops (like Haren's teammate Stephen Drew), but given Ramon Santiago's strong play and the state of the team's rotation, the Tigers' biggest need may be on the mound.
  • The Twins could acquire Ted Lilly – Like the Tigers, the Twins could use pitching. Unlike the Tigers, they have already committed $72MM to next year's team and would have difficulty taking on Haren's contract. Ted Lilly, who makes $12MM this season before becoming a free agent, would be a major upgrade over Nick Blackburn. Lilly has a 4.08 ERA and 6.0 K/9, while Blackburn has a 6.40 ERA with just 3.2 K/9. Lilly projects to be a Type A free agent after the season, so the Twins could obtain draft picks in 2011 if they acquire him now. Like Dunn and Haren, he would be difficult to obtain. 

The Path From Indy Ball To The Majors

Two Red Sox players are joking about their respective agents.

“Mine takes me out for dinner,” one says. “With my own money!”

“At least he buys you champagne,” another responds, gesturing towards an expensive bottle in his teammate’s locker.

Their conversation continues, and before long it turns to Daniel Nava, who is sitting nearby. You’ve heard of him by now. He’s the 27-year-old rookie who hit a grand slam on his first major league swing. The former indy leaguer who’s now hitting .300 at the highest level. Nava takes some good-natured ribbing from his teammates, because he doesn’t even have an agent. When the Red Sox signed him for $1 in 2008, he simply didn’t need one.

“There really wasn’t much to negotiate,” Nava told MLBTR. “It was just 'here – here’s the standard protocol for what you sign – here’s the contract.' So I was in no position to negotiate anything anyways … I just took what was given to me.”

Not a whole lot of leverage.

“Zero leverage,” Nava said. “I’m sure they just would have said ‘well, we can grab someone else.’”

Nava didn’t have an agent when the Red Sox purchased his contract from the Golden Baseball League’s Chico Outlaws, but he and other independent leaguers do have some support. Golden League commissioner Kevin Outcalt actively tries to show off his league’s best players to MLB organizations. Sometimes that means making a sales pitch.

“We’ll take our player of the week or player of the month and almost do a mini-Heisman campaign on them where we’re sending out a bio on them, what they’ve done lately, what have they done in the past,” Outcalt said. “I’ll blast that out to all of the [major league] farm directors.”

If MLB teams like what they see, they can call the Golden League and make a deal. But even players who do join big league organizations have to work their way through the minors, so Nava’s two-year ascent from complete obscurity to minor celebrity stands out.

“That’s a New York rise,” Outcalt said. “But given the kind of experience someone like him gained in independent ball, he knew he had the ability to hit pitchers at almost any level and he was able to take that and work his way up very quickly.”

Nava has hit at every level, never posting an OPS below .856 for any of his teams, including the Red Sox. He says he is still adapting to the speed of the game, but that’s just part of the adjustment process.

“Your first time going on a road trip or a homestand it’s all new and once you’ve done it once or twice it’s like ‘OK that’s how it works,’” Nava said. “Just basic stuff like that that you’ve done for years in the minors, all of a sudden it’s all new up here.”

Every time a player like Nava graduates to a major league organization, an independent team loses one of its top players. But that doesn't bother Golden League officials. Outcalt compares the league to a trampoline that helps independent leaguers find jobs in MLB organizations. Every time the league bounces a player back into affiliated baseball, it becomes a more appealing destination for others looking to prolong their pro careers.

Outcalt generally fields three types of calls from MLB teams. Sometimes, clubs will ask about a specific player, like Nava. In that case, the league works out an agreement with an MLB organization for a standard purchase price. These deals can be in place within an hour.

Sometimes, teams are looking for a specific type of player, like someone who has caught at Triple A or a left-handed reliever. And sometimes MLB executives inquire about the league’s best players, regardless of position. Outcalt estimates that 20 or more players make the leap from the Golden League to affiliated baseball each season, most recently Gilbert De La Vara.

Not all teams comb through independent leagues aggressively. The Golden League, for example, hears regularly from the Tigers, Brewers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Phillies, Astros and Dodgers. 

“Some other teams you never hear from,” Outcalt said.

Tonight, scouts from many organizations gathered to search for the next Daniel Nava, when the Golden League’s All-Stars faced off against the Northern League’s top players in Tucson. The All-Star Game is an informal filter for scouts, who regularly sign players soon after the contest.

Back in April of 2009, when Nava was still playing for the Salem Red Sox, another Golden League alum was emerging as the poster boy for former independent leaguers. Scott Richmond had pitched his way from the Edmonton Cracker-Cats to the Toronto Blue Jays and become the AL Rookie of the Month.

Richmond’s story shows that scouts and front office types are willing to listen when independent leagues come calling. Rob Ducey, a 13-year MLB veteran who now scouts for the Rays, was scouting for the Blue Jays in 2007 when two of his former teammates recommended that Ducey consider Richmond. The right-hander was pitching well and Ducey thought he could produce in affiliated ball.

“You know what, I kind of expected him to pitch well,” Ducey recalled. “He wasn’t a spring chicken. It wasn’t like he was 20 years old and immature. He had a lot of weapons as far as pitches and he threw strikes.”

Richmond, now 30, pitched to a 3.69 ERA in the first half last year, striking out 71 and walking just 30. He has struggled since, but last year's hot start helps explain why teams scout independent leagues: talent can turn up in unexpected places. Ducey can think of another reason.

“Some players, when they get back to professional baseball, not only is their attitude a whole lot better, but they work a whole lot harder because they know what’s on the other side of the fence,” Ducey said.

Richmond encountered shoulder problems in the second half of 2009 and his ERA ballooned to 5.52. He’s now pitching in the minor leagues, but his major league future is largely uncertain. Like Richmond, Nava could find himself in the minors once again. In fact, that reality helps motivate him.

“You’re never going to sit there and say you’ve got it all figured out,” Nava said. “And if you do, usually something’s coming the other way so you don’t have it all figured out.” 

Nava may not have enough job security to seek out an agent, but he sure doesn’t mind playing baseball for a living, whether it’s in front of Fenway Park's Green Monster or back in Chico, California.

“There’s plenty of time to get a nine to five job,” he said. “So you may as well enjoy the chance to do something you love.”

Odds & Ends: Red Sox, Marlins, Berry, Carroll, Pujols

Links for Wednesday, on an eerily quiet day for baseball fans…

Red Sox May Still Covet Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez was supposed to be the biggest trade chip at the 2010 deadline, but the 51-37 Padres aren’t about to sell. That doesn’t mean Boston’s interest in the Padres slugger has faded, however. A baseball source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that the Red Sox still like Gonzalez.

"If they could get Gonzalez [before next season], that would solve everything," the WEEI source said. "And I think that's their Plan A. But the way things are going that might be pie in the sky type of thinking."

Gonzalez is hitting .301/.397/.533 and no Padres regular has an OPS within 170 points of that, so A-Gon isn't going anywhere yet. The Padres can keep the 28-year-old for $5.5MM next year, before he hits free agency. For now, Gonzalez says he doesn’t want to go anywhere.

"It's just a relief not to be in trade rumors and be in first place, more than anything,” Gonzalez said.

The Red Sox have a club option of their own coming up. Bradford says it “seems very unlikely” that Boston will pick up David Ortiz’s $12.5MM option for 2011 and notes that the sides haven’t made major progress on contract talks about an alternate deal. Big Papi appears to want a multi-year contract and believes he’ll stay in Boston.

Yunel Escobar-Alex Gonzalez Trade Reactions

The Braves sent Yunel Escobar north for a veteran who happens to lead MLB shortstops in home runs (Alex Gonzalez). It's a win-now move for Atlanta, though they also acquire a pair of intriguing prospects in the process. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays acquire a cheap, young shortstop who can play great defense and has a career OBP of .368. So does that make today's trade a win-win? Here's what the baseball writers are saying:

  • Matt Eddy and Nathan Rode of Baseball America break down the prospects involved and explain that Tim Collins could become a "useful reliever" and Tyler Pastornicky could become a sound defender who hits at the top of the order. 
  • Many of Escobar's teammates wanted to see him traded, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney says this is a "tremendous trade for the Braves." GM Frank Wren told Olney that the Braves wouldn't have made the deal were it not for Gonzalez's affordable 2011 option (Twitter links).
  • Danny Knobler of CBS Sports says Escobar was "not an Atlanta Braves type of player." Gonzalez is having a strong season and should fit in, so Knobler says he is an Atlanta Braves type of player, even if he's not a long-term solution at short.
  • Mychael Urban of CSN Bay Area believes the Giants could have used Escobar (Twitter link). I wonder how many Tigers fans are thinking the same thing about their team.
  • The Blue Jays took a risk and acquired Escobar now, because top players are rarely available when they're playing at their best, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos explained to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (Twitter links).
  • Earlier in the season, an Atlanta Brave told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that Braves manager Bobby Cox hates Yunel Escobar because of perceived lack of hustle.
  • Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs says the deal "doesn’t seem nearly as bad for the Braves as it did at first glance," though the Blue Jays still won.
  • R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs believes the trade "has to be looked upon as a pretty worthwhile risk for the Jays."
  • Bryan Smith of FanGraphs says Jo-Jo Reyes doesn't mean much to the Braves, since they have so much pitching depth. Smith also suggests Tyler Pastornicky had considerable appeal for the Braves, since he runs and has raised his walk rate.

Poll: The Braves-Blue Jays Trade

The Braves and Blue Jays swapped shortstops today and it's time for you to weigh in. We've heard from the experts, but what do you think? The Blue Jays sold high on Alex Gonzalez for a player with star potential. Does that make them winners? The Braves acquired the player who leads MLB shortstops in homers for someone who has had his ups and downs in Atlanta. Does that make them winners? Maybe one of the minor leaguers will be the difference-maker. Let's see what you think:

Considering the short-term and the long-term, which team won the Alex GonzalezYunel Escobar swap?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

The Brewers’ Asking Price For Corey Hart

The Brewers asked the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner in exchange for Corey Hart, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Giants GM Brian Sabean is understandably hesitant to deal either pitcher.

The Brewers appear willing to deal Hart, though the right fielder has been red-hot since the middle of May. The Giants, Rays, Padres and Braves are among the teams interested in the 28-year-old. Hart has a .288/.349/.569 line with 21 homers this season after a disappointing 2009 campaign. He earns $4.8MM this year and doesn't become a free agent until after 2011.

Sanchez has a 3.47 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 this season. The Giants control the 27-year-old's rights through 2012. Baseball America ranked Bumgarner second among Giants prospects before the season (after Buster Posey). So far in 2010, the 20-year-old left-hander has started four games and posted a 2.57 ERA.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Brewers, Harper, Ortiz

Links for Tuesday, as the National League wins an All-Star Game for the first time since Fred McGriff was their cleanup hitter…