Poll: Which Team Will Sign Masahiro Tanaka?
The Rakuten Golden Eagles have opted to post star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, and now MLB teams will have a chance to battle it out for the chance to sign an ace. The posting process will begin Thursday morning, and will be done by January 24. Effectively, as Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News notes, any team can negotiate with Tanaka if it’s willing to pay the Golden Eagles a posting fee of $20MM.
Tanaka has chosen Casey Close of Excel Sports Management to represent him. Close represents star Dodgers pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, as well as Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira of the Yankees. In addition to the Dodgers and Yankees, Tanaka has been linked to the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Angels, and Rangers. Not all those teams are equally likely to sign Tanaka, obviously. So have at it — who do you think will get him?
Which team will sign Masahiro Tanaka?
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New York Yankees 39% (23,283)
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Other 18% (11,016)
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Los Angeles Dodgers 14% (8,264)
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Chicago Cubs 14% (8,191)
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Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 7% (4,404)
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Texas Rangers 6% (3,481)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 3% (1,712)
Total votes: 60,351
Orioles & Yankees Notes: Tanaka, Rodney, Igawa
Orioles fans are upset over the team's trade of closer Jim Johnson, and they want the team to become more active in the free-agent market, CSN Baltimore's Rich Dubroff writes. Dubroff suggests that Masahiro Tanaka would be a good target, but even if the Orioles don't aim that high, there should be plenty of starting pitching available, with Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Bronson Arroyo still on the market. Santana or Jimenez would require the O's to forfeit their first-round draft pick, however, and they likely won't want to do that. Fernando Rodney would be a good choice to replace Johnson at closer, Dubroff argues. Here are more notes on the Yankees and Orioles.
- The Orioles need to "make a statement" after backing away from their agreement with Grant Balfour, argues MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. Kubatko suggests that now would be a good time for the Orioles to begin signing free agent pitchers to four- or five-year deals, despite their reluctance to do so in the past.
- The Yankees need to sign Tanaka to have a good offseason, Richard Justice of MLB.com writes. The Yankees are unlikely to stack up well against their AL East rivals in Boston and Tampa with a rotation headed by C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, Justice argues.
- If the Yankees sign Tanaka, he won't be the first Japanese ace they've acquired, Jay Schreiber and David Waldstein of the New York Times point out. They plucked Kei Igawa from the Hanshin Tigers prior to the 2007 season, paying $20MM plus a $26MM posting fee. Igawa pitched a total of 71 2/3 innings for New York, posting a 6.66 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. Of course, Tanaka is a different pitcher, with statistical and scouting profiles more convincing than Igawa's. Schreiber and Waldstein point out, however, that Tanaka threw 160 pitches in a recent start, which is certainly a legitimate red flag.
Quick Hits: Downs, Nationals, Papelbon, Reynolds
Last month, reliever Darin Downs found out the Astros had claimed him off waivers from the Tigers as he was driving his wife to deliver the couple's second child, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. "I had a couple missed calls, a couple text messages. So I call one of the front office staff from the Tigers, he says, 'Oh, you've just been claimed by the Astros.' I'm like, 'All right, cool. I'm going to the hospital,'" Downs says. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- A year removed from their nightmarish 2012 season, the Red Sox are again a desirable team for free agents, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes. Some of that, Lauber notes, has to do with the team's willingness to spend money. The team also seems to have rehabilitated its reputation among players after reports of 2012 locker-room disarray. But another important consideration is simply that every season is different. "I always chuckle inside when you see the quote from a free agent, 'I want to go to a contender,'" says Jonny Gomes. "Oh, you mean the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008? Or the Oakland A’s in 2012? That contender? I know anything can happen. Every single year, good, bad and in between, is like an individual season. All you have to do is turn the page."
- Reliever Jim Hoey is trying to return to the big leagues, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes tweets. Hoey, who will be 31 next week, last appeared in the Majors in 2011, when he pitched in the Twins' bullpen. He is perhaps best known for being traded (with minor-leaguer Brett Jacobson) for J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris in 2010. He pitched briefly in the Brewers' system in 2013, and also pitched in independent ball.
- The Nationals have a variety of extension candidates and may not have an easy time deciding how to handle them, writes Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann and shortstop Ian Desmond are both open to extensions, Kerzel notes, but GM Mike Rizzo also needs to think about whether to extend Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg long-term (if that's practical — Scott Boras represents both of them, and one would think his demands would be through the roof). An extension for Zimmermann could exceed Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, possibly winding up somewhere near $85MM, Kerzel suggests. Both Zimmermann and Desmond can become eligible for free agency after the 2015 season.
- The decline in Jonathan Papelbon's stuff last season could make other teams reluctant to trade for him, and Jason Collette of Fangraphs shows exactly what went wrong. Papelbon's velocity dropped as the season progressed, which allowed batters to make more frequent contact with his fastball. Hitters also made more contact with his splitter when he left it in the zone. While Papelbon's superficial statistics (a 2.92 ERA and 29 saves) were reasonable, his peripheral numbers mark him as something like an average closer at this point. Since he's making $13MM a year, that's a problem, and it could be tricky for the Phillies to deal him.
- The Yankees have had talks with Mark Reynolds about a deal to return next season, but the corner infielder appears set to sign somewhere else, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports. Reynolds, 30, joined the Yankees in August after being released by the Indians, and hit .236/.300/.455 in 120 plate appearances, with characteristically high strikeout totals.
Giants Notes: Balfour, Surkamp, Pill
The Giants have had talks with Grant Balfour, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Schulman rates the Giants' chances of actually signing Balfour as "meh," however. As Schulman reported earlier today, the Giants are looking for a reliever but likely not a closer, so they would appear unlikely to pay steeply for Balfour's services. Since Balfour's deal with the Orioles fell through, he has been connected to the Yankees and Rays. Here's more out of San Francisco.
- The Giants lost lefty Eric Surkamp (who was claimed by the White Sox) in part because Brett Pill remains on their 40-man roster, Schulman explains. The Giants are selling Pill's rights to the KIA Tigers in Korea, but until that deal is done, Pill has to stay on the 40-man, or the Giants can't collect their $500K transfer fee. That made Surkamp the odd man out when the Giants needed a roster spot for Mike Morse. In any case, Schulman notes that the Giants might have designated Surkamp anyway once they signed their extra reliever.
- From the outside, the Giants' move to designate Surkamp for assignment didn't make sense, Grant Brisbee of SB Nation writes. Brisbee suggests that the Giants "probably let the next Carlos Villanueva go," reffering to the Giants' 2004 decision to send Villanueva to the Brewers in a minor trade for Wayne Franklin and Leo Estrella.
Cubs Interested In Jesse Crain
The Cubs are interested in reliever Jesse Crain, 670thescore.com's Bruce Levine tweets. The Cubs are one of many teams looking at Crain's medical information.
Crain, 32, spent the last three years as a setup man for the Cubs' cross-town rivals. He posted an 0.74 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 innings for the White Sox in 2013, although he suffered a shoulder injury in June and missed the rest of the season. The White Sox traded him to the Rays in July, but he did not make an appearance for Tampa Bay.
FOX Sports' Jon Morosi tweeted last week that Crain was deciding whether to take a one- or two-year deal. A one-year deal presumably might be attractive to Crain as a way of proving his shoulder is healthy before hitting the free-agent market against next season.
The Astros have reportedly shown interest in Crain, as have the Rockies. The Cubs agreed to a contract with Jose Veras last week with the intention of making him their closer, so Crain would likely continue to work in a setup-type role if the Cubs were to sign him.
Orioles Notes: Hendriks, Balfour, K-Rod
The Orioles' claim of Liam Hendriks today was, like many waiver claims, an acquisition made with depth in mind — Orioles executive Dan Duquette sees Hendriks as a possible spot starter, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun tweets. But Duquette also likes Hendriks' control. Hendriks struggled in the Majors in 2013, but he walked only 1.4 batters per nine innings in 98 1/3 frames for Triple-A Rochester, and since he was only 24, Duquette is optimistic that he might be able to post strong control numbers in the big leagues. Here are more notes on the Orioles.
- Hendriks' acquisition won't stop the Orioles from pursuing starting pitching. The O's continue to look for starters in both free agency and the trade market, Encina tweets. Baltimore has been connected to starters including Ubaldo Jimenez, Johan Santana and A.J. Burnett.
- Don't expect a big move before Christmas, however — Duquette indicates that most teams will begin their holiday breaks after today (via MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko on Twitter).
- The Grant Balfour "fiasco" could be an issue for the Orioles as they pursue free agents, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. The O's backed out of their agreement with Balfour over concern regarding his medicals, a concern some other teams did not share. That wasn't the first time the Orioles had voided a deal for medical reasons, as Rosenthal describes. "This will factor into every competent agent's thought process going forward," an agent tells Rosenthal.
- The Orioles do not seem to be interested in re-signing Francisco Rodriguez, Kubatko writes. Instead, they'll likely go with Tommy Hunter or free agent Fernando Rodney for their closer role.
Dodgers Nearing Deal With Chris Perez
The Dodgers are close to reaching agreement on a one-year deal with reliever Chris Perez, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports. Perez is represented by Nez Balelo of CAA Sports.
Perez, 28, posted a 4.33 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 for the Indians last season. He spent parts of four seasons as Cleveland's closer, but he lost that job late in the 2013 season after he struggled in August and September. The Indians released him in late October rather than paying him the projected $9MM he would have made through the arbitration process.
In Los Angeles, Perez likely won't have to close, or even necessarily to pitch particularly high-leverage innings. Kenley Jansen looks set to continue to be the Dodgers' closer, and righties Brian Wilson and Chris Withrow will likely be ahead of Perez on the depth chart.
AL East, AL West Dominating Free Agent Market
In an article on spending in this year's free-agent market, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan notes that this year's heavy spending hasn't been distributed evenly by division. Robinson Cano and Shin-Soo Choo have headed to the AL West, and that division has spent about $467MM on free agents. The AL East has spent about $399MM. Meanwhile, the NL Central comes in last so far, at around $78MM. To see what that means, here are MLBTR's top 50 free agents, and here's where they went by division. The total spending figures are from Passan.
AL West ($467MM)
1. Robinson Cano, Mariners
3. Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers
16. Scott Kazmir, Athletics
27. Scott Feldman, Astros
39. Corey Hart, Mariners
44. Joe Smith, Angels
AL East ($399MM)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees
4. Brian McCann, Yankees
8. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
10. Mike Napoli, Red Sox
12. Carlos Beltran, Yankees
33. A.J. Pierzynski, Red Sox
37. James Loney, Rays
40. Edward Mujica, Red Sox
AL Central ($269MM)
18. Omar Infante, Royals
19. Joe Nathan, Tigers
20. Ricky Nolasco, Twins
35. Jason Vargas, Royals
38. Phil Hughes, Twins
NL East ($183MM)
13. Curtis Granderson, Mets
15. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Marlins
22. Bartolo Colon, Mets
24. Marlon Byrd, Phillies
29. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
41. Nate McLouth, Nationals
50. Chris Young, Mets
NL West ($148MM)
26. Joaquin Benoit, Padres
30. Josh Johnson, Padres
31. Tim Hudson, Giants
34. Dan Haren, Dodgers
42. Juan Uribe, Dodgers
45. Justin Morneau, Rockies
47. Brian Wilson, Dodgers
NL Central ($78MM)
21. Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals
Retirement
49. Roy Halladay
Unsigned
5. Masahiro Tanaka
6. Ervin Santana
7. Matt Garza
9. A.J. Burnett
11. Ubaldo Jimenez
14. Stephen Drew
17. Nelson Cruz
23. Bronson Arroyo
25. Grant Balfour
28. Kendrys Morales
32. Fernando Rodney
36. Suk-Min Yoon
43. Paul Maholm
46. Jesse Crain
48. Jason Hammel
15 of the top 50 free agents remain unsigned, and the preceding list does not take into account trades, which are another way for teams to add talent in the offseason. The list also does not include the White Sox's $68MM signing of Jose Dariel Abreu or the Giants' re-signings of Hunter Pence or Tim Lincecum, since those occurred before the offseason began. (Passan's numbers appear to include Abreu's signing, but not Pence's or Lincecum's.) Nonetheless, a few notes:
- The NL Central hasn't engaged in the free agent market much at all, even though three of its teams — the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds — made the playoffs last season, and all three went into this offseason as potential threats to do it again. Meanwhile, those three teams have lost Shin-Soo Choo (Reds), Carlos Beltran (Cardinals) and others to free agency, and they might end up also losing A.J. Burnett (Pirates) and Bronson Arroyo (Reds).
- The 15 top free agents who remain unsigned might not change the prevailing patterns much once they do pick their teams. In the AL West, the Mariners could still add Nelson Cruz, and the Angels reportedly have interest in Matt Garza. In the AL East, the Yankees could be key players for Masahiro Tanaka. Stephen Drew could re-sign with the Red Sox. The Orioles have been connected to Ubaldo Jimenez, Cruz, Burnett, and Fernando Rodney. Rumors have connected Grant Balfour to the Rays.
- None of the top dozen free agents have signed with NL teams. Meanwhile, the Yankees alone have come to terms with four of the top 12.
- In fact, seven of the top 12 free agents have gone to the AL East or AL West. None have gone to any other division.
- The starting pitching market remains uncertain, with Tanaka's situation keeping the market in a holding pattern.
- The Diamondbacks may be the best bet to be the first NL team to sign a top-ten free agent, since they've been connected to Tanaka, Ervin Santana and Garza. The Pirates aren't a terrible bet either, but only because they're the likely favorites to get Burnett if he decides to play in 2014.
Quick Hits: Tomko, Rockies, Turner, Twins
Brett Tomko, who impressed with his pitching in a recent stint in the Dominican Republic, is working out in California and plans to audition for clubs in late January, a source tells MLBTR's Zach Links. The veteran is healthy and hitting 90-92 mph on the gun with his fastball to go along with a solid changeup and cutter. Tomko is seeking a minor-league deal with an invite to big-league spring training. If he doesn't make the 25-man roster out of the gate, he's willing to go to Triple-A as an insurance policy to either start or pitch out of the bullpen. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- If you've ever wondered how salaries work for non-Japanese players in Japanese baseball, NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman has a handy chart. Former top MLB players like Andruw Jones and new Rakuten Golden Eagle Kevin Youkilis have salaries that top $3MM. Former MLB regulars who weren't stars, like Casey McGehee and Nyjer Morgan, tend to make in the $1MM-$3MM range, while good Triple-A players and fringe big-leaguers like John Bowker and Fred Lewis make between $400K and $1MM.
- The Rockies deserve a B- grade for their offseason so far, opines Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post (on Sulia). Renck notes that the Rockies haven't acquired a catcher like Carlos Ruiz (who ended up re-signing with the Phillies). He also suggests the Rockies ought to also try to add another starting pitcher. Juan Nicasio, Jordan Lyles and Christian Friedrich are currently their main fifth-starter possibilities behind Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Brett Anderson and Tyler Chatwood.
- The Twins have "checked in" on free-agent infielder Justin Turner, although their level of interest is unclear, 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson tweets. Wolfson notes that Turner is connected to Twins special assistant Wayne Krivsky, who drafted Turner in 2006, when Krivsky was the GM of the Reds.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Choo Deal Addresses Last Of Rangers’ Major Needs
Now that the Rangers have agreed to terms with Shin-Soo Choo, most of their offseason maneuvering is complete, as Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com notes. Or, at least, it could be complete. Whether or not the Rangers are actually done remains to be seen. At this point, though, the Rangers appear to have addressed all their major needs.
Heading into the offseason, we noted that the Rangers would likely look to try to upgrade the first base and designated hitter positions, and that a trade of Ian Kinsler might make sense, given their infield logjam. The Rangers addressed both issues with one deal, sending Kinsler to the Tigers for Prince Fielder and $30MM. Despite receiving cash from the Tigers, the deal added to the Rangers' payroll burden, but it also gave them a star-caliber first baseman (Steamer projects Fielder will be worth 3.6 WAR in 2014), allowing them to bump Mitch Moreland to DH and open second base for top prospect Jurickson Profar, who will join Fielder, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre in the Rangers' infield.
2013 Rangers catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto were both eligible for free agency after the season, leaving the Rangers in need of two big-league catchers. Rather than signing Brian McCann or making another big-ticket move, the Rangers went cheap at catcher, re-signing Soto with the idea that he would be their primary backstop in 2014. Soto served as Pierzynski's backup in 2013, but at age 31 and coming off a .245/.328/.466 season, he could be a bargain at one year and $3.05MM. With Soto in the fold, the Rangers signed J.P. Arencibia to be his backup. Arencibia hit just .194/.227/.365 in 2013, but his above-average power could play well in Texas.
At the beginning of December, the Rangers sent sabermetric favorite Craig Gentry (who produced a whopping 3.4 WAR in a part-time role in 2013, thanks largely to his defense) and pitcher Josh Lindblom to Oakland for outfielder Michael Choice and infield prospect Chris Bostick. Texas exchanged one excellent role player for an outfielder in Choice with more long-term upside and years of control. The deal also allowed Leonys Martin to move into a full-time role in center field, with Engel Beltre, who is out of options, becoming his backup.
And then came another blockbuster, as the Rangers agreed to terms with Choo on a seven-year, $130MM deal. With Nelson Cruz departing via free agency, the Rangers had a spot open in their outfield (more on Choice's role in a second), and a need for a big bat.
Choo isn't an archetypal slugger, but he's posted on-base percentages north of .390 in four of the last six seasons. As some analysts, such as ESPN's Keith Law (Insider-only), noted, the Rangers are taking a big long-term risk with a contract of this size. Choo is already 31 and is a poor hitter against lefties, meaning there's a good chance he'll need to be shoehorned into a part-time role well before the contract ends. Choo's high HBP totals — he had a career-high 26 in 2013 — make him an injury concern going forward. And as ESPN's Dan Szymborski notes (via Twitter), high-OBP corner outfielders who don't have great power tend to decline quickly. Choo also will cost the Rangers their first-round draft pick next year. In the short term, though, Choo is a huge upgrade at the Rangers' last remaining key position of need.
The Rangers will likely head into 2014 with Alex Rios and Choo as their main options at the corner outfield positions. With Martin in center, that means the only starting offensive position that's even a little bit unsettled is designated hitter. While it still isn't impossible that the Rangers could re-sign Cruz, they now have enough decent options at the position that they could just go into 2014 with what they have. Moreland, a lefty, would likely take most of the at bats against righties, and Choice might be an option at the position as well. What the Rangers plan to do with Choice is unclear. The Rangers could option him to Triple-A to play every day. But as a righty, he would also have value as a bench outfielder and occasional DH, filling in for Moreland or Choo when lefties take the mound.
The Rangers have no obvious needs in their rotation, with Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Alexi Ogando occupying four spots, Matt Harrison returning from injury to take the fifth one, and Nick Tepesch available as depth. With a variety of options at the closer position, including Neftali Feliz, Tanner Scheppers and Joakim Soria, they don't have to worry about replacing the departing Joe Nathan, either.
The Rangers might not be done making news. If they were to re-sign Cruz, for example, they might then trade Moreland to a team like the Pirates or Brewers. But they don't need to make any more big moves. They've acquired two catchers, cleared the way for Profar and added two big bats in Fielder and Choo. They already appear to be mostly set for 2014.