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Justin Turner

Details On Justin Turner’s Red Sox Contract

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The Red Sox finalized their contract with veteran infielder Justin Turner this afternoon. Initial reports on the deal, which was agreed upon in December, were a bit variable.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post specified the details this afternoon (on Twitter). It’s officially a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee that comes with an average annual value of $10.85MM. The deal also contains up to $1MM in incentives that’d max out if he reaches 560 plate appearances. As previously reported, Turner will have the opportunity to opt out after the 2023 campaign.

The Vayner Sports client will make an $8.3MM salary this year. At season’s end, he’ll have to decide on either a $13.4MM player option or a $6.7MM buyout to head back to free agency. That lofty buyout means Turner would collect $15MM for one season if he opts out, and he’d only have to top $6.7MM on the open market to come out ahead financially. Matching or topping the .278/.350/.438 line he posted through 532 plate appearances during his final season with the Dodgers should allow him to fairly easily beat that figure.

The two-time All-Star spent nine seasons in Southern California after his first few years as a role player with the Orioles and Mets. He took to Twitter this evening to thank the Dodgers organization and its fans after officially putting pen to paper with Boston.

With Rafael Devers and Triston Casas set to man the corner infield, Turner seems likely to spend a decent amount of time at designated hitter in 2023. He’ll be replacing J.D. Martinez, who coincidentally landed in Los Angeles on a one-year free agent deal.

Marlins Have Pursued Triston Casas In Trade Talks With Red Sox

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The Red Sox and Marlins have been discussing trade scenarios, with recent reporting indicating the Sox have have some interest in veteran infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. It seems that they have also discussed a much more significant trade as well, with the Fish attempting to acquire young first baseman Triston Casas, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

Since Wendle and Rojas are both in their 30s and impending free agents, their trade value would be fairly modest. Casas, however, is turning 23 years old later this month, still has six remaining years of control and is generally considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game. If he were to be involved in any trade, it would surely go beyond a deal for Rojas or Wendle. The report from the Herald indicates Miami tried to pry Casas loose from Boston in discussions involving their starting pitchers.

There’s nothing to suggest that Boston is open to dealing Casas or ever gave serious consideration to the overtures coming from Miami. Still, it’s noteworthy that such a monumental deal has even been discussed. The Marlins have reportedly been trying to use their rotation surplus for a lineup boost for quite some time, but haven’t yet landed a deal to their liking. While ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Pérez are reportedly off limits, the Fish seem to be willing to part with one of Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera in a trade that would give them an impact bat and targeted Casas to be that guy.

The 26th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casas mashed his way up the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year at the age of 22. He struck out in 24.2 percent of his trips to the plate, which was a bit above league average, but he also walked 20 percent of the time and launched five home runs in just 27 games. His lopsided .197/.358/.408 slash line resulted in a 120 wRC+, indicating he was 20 percent better than league average. That’s a very small sample size, but he’s also hit extremely well in the minors. In 72 Triple-A games last year, he hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127.

Though it makes sense that the Marlins would be interested in an exciting young player like that, it also makes sense that the Sox would want to hold onto him. Boston acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres at last year’s deadline but then were seemingly impressed enough by the debut of Casas that they released Hosmer in December. To suddenly pivot and include Casas in a trade would be quite shocking.

The Marlins are also potentially interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, another highly-touted Boston prospect but one further away from the majors. The 22-year-old infielder/outfielder reached Double-A in 2022 and should be ready for exposure to Triple-A this year. He’s generally not ranked as highly as Casas but still has some hype, with Baseball America currently considering him the #78 prospect in all of baseball and MLB Pipeline placing him in the #96 slot. However, Jackson and Mish report that the Marlins are prioritizing improving the 2023 team, making Rafaela less interesting to them than the MLB-ready Casas.

The general framework of a trade isn’t totally inconceivable, in the sense that the Sox could surely use the starting pitching that the Marlins have to offer. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years while recent signee Corey Kluber is about to turn 37 and has injury question marks of his own. Garrett Whitlock has worked well in relief but seems to be headed for a move to the rotation despite just nine career MLB starts to this point in his career. Nick Pivetta is arguably the most reliable member of the bunch but he’s never posted an ERA below 4.53. Adding some more insurance into that group would make sense but it seems the acquisition costs being discussed with Miami are steep.

Though the Marlins have enough starting pitching to interest the Red Sox and many other teams around the league, these talks perhaps give us some insight as to why a deal still hasn’t come to fruition, given their high asking price. With those talks yet to bear fruit, the club has been limited to free agency in their pursuit of upgrading an offense that produced an 88 wRC+ in 2022, good enough for 25th place in the league.

The club had known interest in José Abreu, with Jackson and Mish reporting they offered a two-year deal in the $40MM range. Instead, Abreu joined the Astros on a three-year deal with a similar salary, amounting to a $58.5MM guarantee. The Marlins then pivoted to Justin Turner and offered him a one-year deal worth $15MM. He instead joined the Red Sox on a deal that pays him $15MM in 2023 but also has a player option for 2024 that would push his guarantee to $21.7MM over two years. The Fish also reportedly offered Brandon Drury $19MM over two years but he ended up taking a slightly smaller $17MM deal with the Angels. It had been recently reported by Sam Blum and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Drury grew up an Angels fan and also had a pre-existing relationship with Angels’ manager Phil Nevin from when Nevin was managing the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team that Drury was on in 2015 and 2016. After missing out on Abreu, Turner and Drury, the Marlins then got a deal done with Jean Segura.

While Segura is a solid addition, it seems the Marlins are still trying to complete a significant trade that will make an even larger impact on their lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that Casas will be the one, but it gives some sense of the type of impact player they have their eyes on. With about six weeks remaining until Spring Training, it will be very interesting to see what other players they pursue and if they can line up on a deal.

Red Sox Agree To Sign Justin Turner

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6:41PM: Another breakdown is provided by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who reports that Turner will earn $15MM in 2023, and then $7.7MM in 2024 if he exercises his player option.  Another $1MM is available to Turner in incentive bonuses in 2023, as he can unlock a series of $200K bonuses if he reaches at least 480 plate appearances.

6:01PM: Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has a different set of contract numbers, reporting that Turner will get only $8.3MM in 2023 and then $11.4MM in 2024 if he exercises the player option.  Unless is a signing bonus or buyout also attached to the deal, Speier’s report would indicate that Turner is only receiving $19.7MM in guaranteed salary.  The $8.3MM figure in 2023 in particular looks like a very nice bargain for the Red Sox on what could well end up being a one-year commitment to a 38-year-old player.

5:26PM: Turner will earn $14MM in 2023, Heyman reports, and the 2024 player option is worth $8MM.

4:54PM: The Red Sox have agreed to a deal with infielder Justin Turner, according to ESPN’s Joon Lee and Jeff Passan (Twitter links).  The two-year contract will pay Turner slightly less than $22MM, and Turner can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links) reported earlier today that Turner and the Sox were “looking close” to working out a contract, and that Boston was “heavily” pursuing Turner.  Michael Marino of Fantrax reported yesterday that Turner and the Sox were in talks.  Turner is represented by Vayner Sports.

The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Dodgers are the other teams publicly known to have some interest in Turner, and Miami made Turner an offer earlier this week.  Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald described the Marlins’ offer as “competitive,” and though the exact details of the offer weren’t known, Heyman wrote that the Marlins seemed open to giving Turner the multi-year deal he is seeking in free agency.

Turner (who is entering his age-38 season) did find that multi-year pact, though at a significant drop in average annual value from the $17MM he received in his previous two-year deal with the Dodgers.  MLBTR projected Turner for only one guaranteed year, but for $14MM.  The year-to-year breakdown of the new contract isn’t yet known, and the opt-out could indicate that Turner’s camp might essentially view this deal as a one-year pact, with an eye towards getting a larger multi-year contract next after on the heels of a big platform year at Fenway Park.

That said, it isn’t as though Turner underachieved in 2022, as he posted a strong 123 wRC+ after batting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 plate appearances with the Dodgers.  However, given how Turner’s usual offseason routine was thrown off-kilter was the lockout and the shortened Spring Training, he might well imagine that he could’ve hit much better had it not been for a very slow start.  Turner had only a .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then caught fire with a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.

Despite this production and Turner’s long track record of success over nine seasons in Los Angeles, the Dodgers opted to decline their $16MM club option on Turner for 2023, instead buying him out for $2MM.  The move was seemingly made to give the Dodgers some extra flexibility in regards to their payroll and luxury tax situation, as the Dodgers could conceivably use any of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, or prospect Miguel Vargas at third base.  While president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman repeatedly stated that the door was still open for a possible reunion with Turner, the Dodgers’ signing of J.D. Martinez yesterday seemed to hint that L.A. had moved on.

As it turned out, the Dodgers and Red Sox will unofficially swap veteran hitters, with Martinez heading to Los Angeles and Turner coming to Boston.  Turner brings more defensive utility than Martinez, as Turner still saw quite a bit of action at third base last season, basically splitting his time between third and DH.  Rafael Devers of course has priority at the hot corner in Boston, but the Red Sox could now use Turner at third base when Devers (a subpar defender) is given a DH day of his own.  Turner hasn’t played at first base since 2016, but he could also conceivably get some time at the cold corner as a right-handed hitting complement to rookie Triston Casas.

Xander Bogaerts’ departure to the Padres has led to a lot of hard feelings from Red Sox Nation directed towards ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom.  Though Bogaerts is certainly a major loss, Bloom’s plan is to fill the void with multiple players, as Bloom has stated that he wanted to add roughly 7-9 new faces to the roster.  That long list of needs has now been partially filled by Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez.

It would seem like starting pitching, catching, and the outfield remain on Bloom’s checklist, given the other players the Red Sox have at least checked in on this winter.  But with Turner, the club reinforcements the corner infield/DH mix that Boston first looked to address by making a push for Jose Abreu, before Abreu signed with the Astros.  The Red Sox made some room at first base by designing Eric Hosmer for assignment earlier this week, and though Hosmer was essentially a free player since the Padres were covering almost all of his remaining salary, the Sox were looking for either a more productive bat, or at least to more firmly clear a path for top prospect Casas.

After surpassing the luxury tax threshold in 2022, the Red Sox are thus far well under the $233MM threshold.  That leaves Bloom with some opportunity to perhaps stay under the tax line, though given how Bloom and ownership were willing to pay the tax for even a rather remote shot at a playoff berth last year, one would imagine the Red Sox wouldn’t balk at paying another tax penalty for the right upside.  Many of the offseason’s top free agents have already come off the board, but the Sox could still pursue other upgrades on the trade market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Twins Interested In Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock

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Justin Turner and AJ Pollock are among the veteran free agents under consideration by the Twins as they look to further bolster their lineup, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Of note, Hayes’ piece was written yesterday prior to Minnesota’s signing of Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11MM contract — Gallo was also listed as a player the Twins were targeting, though his addition could change the equation for other pickups.

In particular, Pollock might no longer be on the radar given how Minnesota’s outfield picture was already pretty crowded even before Gallo joined the roster.  Gallo, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and Kyle Garlick are all outfield options for 2023, plus the versatile Nick Gordon could also get some time on the grass when he isn’t in the infield.

That said, there has been some trade speculation surrounding Kepler, and Gallo’s deal might be some hint that the Twins could view Gallo as something of a Kepler replacement.  Furthermore, Buxton, Celestino, and Garlick are the only right-handed hitters within that large outfield grouping, so acquiring Pollock would add more lineup balance and depth at all three outfield positions (though Pollock is no longer a defensive standout at any spot).

The Twins got a close look at Pollock when he played for the division rival White Sox last season, but they hardly saw the veteran at his best.  Pollock’s 92 wRC+ was his lowest in a full season since 2013, and he hit only .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances.  Since he is entering his age-35 season, there is surely concern among some teams that Pollock has started to decline.

On the plus side, Pollock’s overall Statcast numbers were pretty decent, with an above-average strikeout rate and hard-contact numbers.  While his .317 xwOBA was nothing special, his .297 wOBA indicates some degree of bad luck.  Furthermore, Pollock’s overall batting line only took a hit against right-handed pitching — he had a .935 OPS in 133 PA against left-handed pitching in 2022, but a dreadful .593 OPS in 394 PA against righties.

As much as Pollock still looks capable of crushing southpaws, these drastic splits give pause to any club considering Pollock for an everyday job.  The Twins’ plethora of left-handed outfielders would make a platoon or timeshare pretty easy, though it remains to be seen if Pollock would be open to a reduced role.  Pollock already showed confidence in his ability to bounce back by declining his $13MM player option with Chicago and taking a $5MM, essentially making an $8MM bet on himself to find a larger deal on the open market.

There hasn’t been a lot of public interest in Pollock to date, while the Marlins, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks have all been linked to Turner, and at least one team (Miami) has made the infielder a proper offer.  Turner and Pollock were teammates with the Dodgers from 2019-21, and while the 38-year-old Turner is the older of the two, he also figures to be more expensive given the larger interest and a better platform year.

Turner hit .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 PA with Los Angeles in 2022, essentially having a split season in terms of production.  Turner had a measly .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then snapped back into form and had a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.  Considering the unique circumstances (i.e. the lockout, and the shortened Spring Training) of the lead-up to the 2022 campaign, Turner’s slow start could be written off as a product of an unusual offseason.

With the universal DH coming to the National League last year, Turner basically split time between DH and third base.  The Twins could deploy this same strategy, having Turner and Jose Miranda in a timeshare at third base (though both players at right-handed hitters) and using Turner at DH whenever Miranda is at the hot corner.  Apart from one game at second base and one mop-up inning as a pitcher, Turner has played only third base since the start of the 2017 season, but he could theoretically factor into the first base mix as well.

Christian Vazquez’s three-year, $30MM contract represents Minnesota’s biggest expenditure of the winter, and even with Gallo added, the Twins’ payroll still projects under the $118MM threshold.  That is well under the $134.4MM the Twins spend on their Opening Day roster last year, and given how Minnesota made a concerted effort to try and re-sign Carlos Correa to a pricey new contract, the Twins clearly have money to spend or re-allocate now that Correa has joined the Giants.

Marlins, Rangers Interested In Michael Conforto

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6:41pm: The Rangers are also involved in the Conforto market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Texas general manager Chris Young told reporters coming out of the Winter Meetings they were hoping to address left field, where rookies Bubba Thompson, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith look like the in-house favorites for playing time. That corner outfield vacancy makes Conforto a fairly obvious target, particularly with Andrew Benintendi’s five-year deal with the White Sox taking the top free agent left fielder off the board.

1:09pm: The Marlins have shown some interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman also lists the Astros and Cubs, both of whom have been previously linked to the Boras Corporation client, as teams with interest.

Miami entered the offseason searching for offensive help. They’ve done essentially nothing thus far, with the only noteworthy move being the non-tender of Brian Anderson. The Marlins hit just .230/.294/.363 in 2022, finishing 27th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging. Spacious Marlins Park hasn’t done their batters any favors, but Miami’s offense was one of the league’s worst even after accounting for home environment. By measure of wRC+, which adjusts for park, the Marlins were 12 percentage points worse than the average hitting team — the sixth-lowest mark in the league.

Most of the Miami offense underperformed, with second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. their only standout hitter. That gives general manager Kim Ng and her staff myriad positions they could look to address. The outfield, which Miami thought they’d fixed last offseason, posed particular problems. Avisaíl García fell flat with a career-worst .224/.266/.317 showing in the first season of a four-year free agent deal. Jorge Soler, inked to a three-year deal after a massive postseason showing in 2021, managed just a .207/.295/.400 mark with subpar defense in left field.

The Marlins gave extended auditions to young players Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz. Neither ran away with an everyday job, with both reaching base at a sub-.300 clip. Sánchez and De La Cruz each showed interesting power potential, but they both struck out more often than average while walking at a subpar clip. Of that group, only Sánchez — who spent most of the season’s second half in Triple-A after being optioned — hits left-handed.

Bringing in a lefty-swinging outfielder makes plenty of sense, and Conforto’s one of the more interesting options available. The 29-year-old missed all of 2022 recovering from an offseason injury to his right shoulder that required surgery. He’s not expected to have any health limitations by next spring, but the lost year raises some questions about how he’ll respond after such a long layoff.

Conforto wasn’t even at his best before the surgery, as his 2021 campaign was his worst in a while. He hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances for the division-rival Mets in 2021. That’d still be an upgrade over the production Miami received from any of their outfielders last season, but it’s well shy of the .265/.369/.495 cumulative line Conforto had posted from 2017-20.

With his value at a low ebb, Conforto is looking for a bounceback opportunity. Agent Scott Boras has suggested he expects Conforto land a multi-year guarantee this offseason, one that allows him to opt out and retest free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign. Boras reiterated that sentiment when speaking with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com yesterday (Twitter link). That’s a rather lofty goal for a player coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery, and it remains to be seen if a team is willing to guarantee him multiple years.

While Conforto’s bat would be a welcome addition to the Miami lineup, he’s not an ideal fit from a positional perspective. He hasn’t played a single inning of center field since 2019, and his early-career defensive metrics there were very poor. Conforto’s a solid defender in the corner outfield, but he’s even less likely to be an option up-the-middle after surgery on his throwing shoulder. Miami reportedly prefers to push Soler more fully into designated hitter work in 2023, so Conforto and García could take the corners. That’d require leaning on Sánchez, De La Cruz or JJ Bleday again in center field, where each player is probably miscast. Of course, with an already shallow center field market having been picked clean, the Marlins may no longer have a viable alternative to rolling out another mediocre defensive outfield.

The Astros have been tied to Conforto on a number of occasions this offseason, as they’re reportedly looking to install a left-handed bat into the corner outfield mix. The Cubs were previously linked to Conforto as well, although that was before they signed Cody Bellinger to play center field. That filled Chicago’s outfield, which already contained Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in the corners. The Cubs don’t have a great option at designated hitter, though, which is presumably where they’re eyeing Conforto at this point. Seattle and both New York franchises were also linked to the Oregon State product at points this offseason.

Miami’s facing some competition in the Conforto market, but he shouldn’t be unattainable from a financial perspective. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote in September that owner Bruce Sherman was willing to sign off on a fairly modest payroll bump, but they’ve yet to dip into free agency thus far. The Fish have reportedly put forth an offer to former Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who remains unsigned. Heyman writes Miami appears willing to make a two-year commitment to the 38-year-old, who’s coming off a .278/.350/.438 showing in Los Angeles.

Marlins Have Made Offer To Justin Turner

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The Marlins have made an offer to free-agent corner infielder Justin Turner, per Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. There are other teams interested, per the report, but Miami’s offer is generally viewed as a “competitive” one. In addition to the Marlins, Turner has received interest from the incumbent Dodgers — who declined a $16MM club option on him — as well as the Diamondbacks.

Turner, 38, would give the Marlins a direly needed right-handed bat to help with the team’s miserable production against left-handed pitching. Miami was the worst team in baseball against lefties in 2022, and it wasn’t particularly close, as Marlins hitters turned in a .208/.273/.325 batting line versus southpaws. That resulted in a 71 wRC+, which trailed the 29th-ranked D-backs by a measure of 10 points and suggested that Miami hitters were 29% worse than league average against lefties (after weighting for home park and league environment).

As such, a veteran of Turner’s stature would be a massive boon to Miami’s run-scoring potential. The longtime Dodgers slugger posted a .275./349/.389 batting line against lefties in 2022 and carries a stout .276/.358/.460 output against left-handed pitchers over the course of a 14-year career in the Majors. Setting aside his platoon splits, Turner batted .278/.350/.438 in 2022 (123 wRC+) and has been at least 23% better than league average at the plate in each season dating back to 2014.

With the Marlins, the expectation would be that Turner would split his time between third base, first base and designated hitter. Turner has scarcely played first base in the Majors, logging just 238 innings in his career — none since 2016. He’s long been a solid third baseman, but his defensive grades have begun to dwindle in his late 30s, and the Dodgers used him at designated hitter in about half of his 128 games in 2022. Each of Defensive Runs Saved (-1), Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.1) and Outs Above Average (-2) panned Turner’s glovework at the hot corner in 574 innings, although while each mark was below-average, none painted him as a complete liability, either.

It’s been a quiet offseason for the Marlins, who’ve done little to address their roster outside of a trade for Rays reliever JT Chargois. The offense, which ranked 24th in the Majors in homers (144), 28th in runs scored (586), 26th in batting average (.230), 27th in on-base percentage (.294) and 28th in slugging percentage (.363) could stand upgrades at multiple positions.

It’s not quite clear just how much Miami has to spend this winter, but Mish and Jackson suggest Miami was willing to put forth an offer in the neighborhood of two years and $40MM for Jose Abreu before he signed with the Astros, suggesting that general manager Kim Ng has at least some leeway in her pursuits of veteran free agents.

The Marlins are projected by Roster Resource to trot out an Opening Day payroll in the neighborhood of $95MM at the moment. Turner would likely add more than $10MM to that figure, pushing the Marlins close to the franchise’s $115MM Opening Day record, set back in 2017 under former owner Jeffrey Loria.

Diamondbacks Have Shown Interest In Evan Longoria, Justin Turner

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Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen listed adding some right-handed help to his lineup as an area of focus back in early October, and much of the team’s pursuits to this point in the offseason have reflected that desire to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup. Arizona has already bought low on 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that they’ve spoken to veteran corner infielders Evan Longoria and Justin Turner as well (Twitter links).

Arizona currently has left-handed bats as its primary options across the outfield (Jake McCarthy, Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas), at third base (Josh Rojas) and likely at designated hitter (Pavin Smith, Seth Beer). The Snakes aren’t devoid of righty-swinging options, as switch-hitting Ketel Marte provides a strong right-handed presence, as does first baseman Christian Walker. Catcher Carson Kelly and shortstop Nick Ahmed are both generally light-hitting options, but both righties at least have above-average career marks against left-handed pitching.

That contingent of righties wasn’t enough to make the 2022 D-backs anywhere close to passable against left-handed pitching, however. As a team, the Diamondbacks batted .227/.292/.363 against left-handed pitching in 2022, and the resulting 83 wRC+ ranked 28th in baseball, leading only the Pirates (81) and Marlins (71). The aforementioned Lewis might be a slight upgrade over some in-house options, if healthy, but that’s a substantial “if” — and he’s had reverse platoon splits to this point in his career anyhow.

Both Longoria and Turner, however, would represent marked upgrades to that glaring team deficiency against lefties. Longoria, 37, hit .282/.333/.479 against southpaws in 2022 and has tormented left-handed pitchers with a .281/.359/.509 slash throughout his 15 Major League seasons. The 38-year-old Turner, meanwhile, posted a .275/.349/.389 slash against left-handers in 2022 and has a .276/.358/.460 output against them throughout the duration of his own 14-year career in the Majors.

At this point in their careers, neither Longoria nor Turner is likely viewed as an everyday option at third base. Both played fewer than 600 innings at the position in 2022, although injuries to each played a role in that limited defensive work. Still, Turner spent half of his 128 games at designated hitter, while Longoria spent about 20% of his time serving as a DH with the Giants  last year. Both players once drew strong defensive marks at the hot corner but have seen them dwindle in recent seasons. Turner drew slightly negative marks in each of Defensive Runs Saved (-1), Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.1) and Outs Above Average (-2), while Longoria was dinged by DRS (-4) but credited as a scratch defender in the eyes of both UZR and OAA. Even if neither is viewed as a full-time option at third, either Longoria or Turner could split time with Rojas while also logging regular work as the D-backs’ designated hitter.

Beyond their inquiries into veteran corner infielders, the D-backs have been on the hunt for catching help throughout the winter. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the names to which they’ve been primarily connected — A’s catcher Sean Murphy and free agent Christian Vazquez — both hit from the right side of the dish.

Marlins Interested In Justin Turner

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The Marlins have checked into Justin Turner’s market, The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  Turner entered free agency after the Dodgers declined their $16MM club option on the veteran infielder.

Turner has spent the last nine seasons in Los Angeles, becoming a fan favorite and a key figure in the Dodgers’ success.  Despite being something of an afterthought early in his career with the Orioles and Mets, Turner blossomed once coming to L.A., hitting .296/.375/.490 with 156 homers over his 4220 plate appearances in a Dodger uniform.  The highlights included two All-Star appearances, NLCS MVP honors in 2017, and the Dodgers’ World Series championship in 2020.

Though 2022 was Turner’s age-37 season, he still provided a very solid 123 wRC+ by hitting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers in 532 PA.  Given how Turner struggled badly in the first three months before catching fire later, it is quite possible that the lockout and the abbreviated Spring Training threw off Turner’s usual routine, leaving him in need of some time to get fully ramped up.  This bodes well for his chances of continuing to hit even as he gets deeper into his late 30’s.

The Dodgers’ decision to decline Turner’s option may have been simply more about flexibility than a reflection of the team’s feelings about Turner’s production going forward, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has said that the team wants to bring Turner back for the 2023 campaign.  Turner has re-signed with the Dodgers in past trips to free agency, and yet if he is looking for a new chapter, the Marlins are one of many teams that should have interest in a reliable veteran bat who might not be overly expensive.

MLBTR projected Turner for a one-year, $14MM contract, which should work even with the Marlins’ rather modest budget.  Turner’s veteran leadership would also boost a young Miami clubhouse, and he would be reunited with former Dodger co-hitting coach Brant Brown, who was recently hired as the Marlins’ hitting coach.

On the field, Turner’s production would upgrade a lineup that has been among the league’s worst for two seasons running.  Brian Anderson was non-tendered, leaving third base wide open for Turner — utilityman Joey Wendle can play all over the diamond, perhaps only getting some third base time when Turner is getting a DH day, or perhaps playing first base.  With the Marlins focusing on improving their contact hitting, Turner would be an excellent fit given his career-long ability to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts.

Dodgers Decline Club Option On Justin Turner

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The Dodgers announced they’ve declined their $16MM option on Justin Turner. The third baseman receives a $2MM buyout and heads to free agency.

Turner, 38 later this month, struggled to establish himself in his first few seasons in the big leagues, struggling in his time with the Orioles and Mets. He joined the Dodgers for the 2014 season and busted out with a .340/.404/.493 batting line, production that was 58% better than league average according to wRC+.

Since that time, he’s been a mainstay in Los Angeles, playing at least 103 games in each season outside of the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s continued to be a consistently above-average hitter, never finishing a season with a wRC+ below 123. His power has often been strong, though never elite. He’s hit 27 home runs three times but never more than that. His bat-to-ball skills are quite strong, however, as he’s never posted a strikeout rate higher than 18%, well below the typical league average, with this year’s ending up at 22.4%.

Twice in his Dodger career, Turner has reached free agency and re-signed with the club. After the 2016 season, they agreed to a four-year reunion that came with a $64MM guarantee. He returned to the open market after 2020 and then re-signed with the Dodgers again, this time for a two-year, $34MM deal with a club option for 2023. That option was for $16MM with a $2MM buyout.

For the first half of 2022, Turner’s age-37 season, it seemed like he would make the decision very easy for the Dodgers. Through the end of June, he was hitting a paltry .227/.298/.375, wRC+ of 90. However, he completely flipped the script in the second half, hitting .340/.412/.514 for a wRC+ of 163 from the start of July onwards. That left his combined line pretty close to his typical level of production, as the result was a .278/.350/.438 slash for a 123 wRC+. That surely gave the club much more to think about, but they have still opted for the $2MM buyout instead of the $16MM salary.

While it’s always possible he and the team could reunite at a different price point, it’s now possible that the club sees a lot of turnover in its infield. Shortstop Trea Turner is also heading to free agency, meaning the club is potentially subtracting two Turners from the left side of the infield. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman recently spoke about how the club is open to having Gavin Lux slide over from second base to shortstop to take over for Trea, and it’s possible they feel the same way about having internal replacements take over the hot corner. Prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022, and though he struggled in his limited MLB time, he has tremendous minor league numbers. In Triple-A this year, he hit .304/.404/.511 for a wRC+ of 129. If they were willing to let he and Lux take over the left side of the infield, they could then dedicate their resources to the pitching staff and center field, where Cody Bellinger is a non-tender candidate.

If Turner does have to find a new employer for 2023, he will have one thing working in his favor. He will easily be the top option on the third base free agent market. Since Nolan Arenado decided not to opt out of his deal with the Cardinals, the best remaining options are utility players like Brandon Drury, Jace Peterson or Aledmys Diaz. Those players all are intriguing in one way or another but none of them has the track record of consistent offensive production like Turner does. Given his age, Turner won’t be able to secure a lengthy pact, but that will also appeal to certain clubs that prefer to avoid those types of deals.

The Opener: Click, Option Decisions, White Sox

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As the offseason continues to chug through it’s earliest stages, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Will James Click Continue As Houston’s GM?

While Dusty Baker has accepted a one-year contract extension as Astros manager, GM James Click did not do the same when owner Jim Crane offered him a one-year extension of his own, telling reporters he is “in discussions” regarding a new contract. While it’s something of a shock that the World Series-winning general manager wouldn’t receive a multi-year extension offer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, there has long been speculation of Crane looking for a change in the front office, which is only further fueled by reports that he shot down a deal for Cubs catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. Heyman suggests that the Astros may have interest in David Stearns, a former Houston executive who recently stepped down from his president of baseball operations position with Milwaukee. Stearns is still under contract with the Brewers for 2023, however, so the Astros would likely need to make a minor trade along the lines of the deal between the Cubs and Red Sox to send Theo Epstein to Chicago after the 2011 season if they are to acquire his services for the 2023 season. It’s also worth noting that Stearns definitively stated upon stepping back as president he plans to remain in Milwaukee and spend more time with family.

2. Option Decisions Continue To Linger

On the eve of the deadline for options decisions, a few notable ones still linger. Perhaps the most notable player in the bunch is longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on whom the club faces a $14MM decision on. A strong second half made what once seemed like an easy decision to decline the option much less clear cut. That being said, with players like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch waiting in the wings, the Dodgers may prefer their younger internal options going forward. A few clubs also having intriguing option decisions to make in the rotation, most notably the Mets on Carlos Carrasco and the Orioles on Jordan Lyles. Both teams are relatively thin on proven rotation arms (the Mets thanks to other potential free-agent departures), so locking up a starter for 2023 could make sense for either club. That said, the $10MM the Orioles would spend on Lyles may be better served allocated to another starter with, perhaps, a higher ceiling, while the Mets may prefer to search for a younger option for their rotation than Carrasco, who will play 2023 at age 36. Aside from Carrasco, the Mets have Max Scherzer, 38, under contract for next season and are reportedly expressing interest in reunions with Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, who are both in their mid-thirties.

3. White Sox Have Plenty Of Needs This Offseason

After a disappointing 81-81 season and with many holes to fill on the roster, the White Sox will need to be active this offseason. In addition to longtime first baseman Jose Abreu hitting free agency, outfielder AJ Pollock declined his player option in a surprising move, and Chicago declined to exercise their option on second baseman Josh Harrison. While these option decisions have saved the club some money (Pollock’s decision in particular saves Chicago $8MM), they still might not have a lot to spend this offseason. RosterResource estimates their 2023 payroll to be just over $174MM, not far below their all-time record payroll of $194MM in 2022. The Athletic’s James Fegan notes that while Hahn has expressed confidence in top prospect Oscar Colas as an outfield regular in 2023, he similarly noted the possibility that Eloy Jimenez will spend more time at DH going forward, leaving the club in position to pursue outfield options regardless of Colas’s readiness for an everyday major league role, particularly with Pollock’s departure meaning their best internal fourth outfielder is Adam Engel. Given most of the Chicago lineup is right-handed, an outfielder who can hit from the left side, such as Joc Pederson, or the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, would make sense as a target. As for second base, Chicago’s dearth of production at the position in recent years makes them an obvious fit for Jean Segura, but a lower-cost option such as Adam Frazier could also make sense.

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