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Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West

Chicago Cubs

  • Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)

Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.

It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.

  • Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)

Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.

The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.

Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.

The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.

The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.

Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.

Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.

That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.

Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.

Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.

The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.

Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.

Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.

Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • None

St. Louis Cardinals

  • None

Justin Turner, Jerry Dipoto Discuss State Of Mariners

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There seems to be a great deal of frustration surrounding the Mariners, which isn’t limited to the fanbase. Former Mariner Justin Turner sounded off on the situation to Bob Nightengale of USA Today yesterday, blasting the organization for its lack of aggression. That column led to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times seeking the response of various players, who kept themselves anonymous. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also spoke about the state of the franchise to Sam Blum of The Athletic in a piece published today, though the piece didn’t reference Turner’s comments or the USA Today piece and said the Dipoto interview actually took place “earlier” this spring.

“The fact that they missed the playoffs by one game, and didn’t go out and add an impact bat or two when you have the best pitching staff in baseball,” Turner said to Nightengale, “just seems absurd to me.”

The Mariners went 85-77 last year, a solid season and their fourth straight above .500. But as Turner mentioned, they narrowly missed the playoffs, just as they did in 2021 and 2023. Their postseason appearance in 2022 is their only one since 2001. Their decent-but-underwhelming results last year were the result of an imbalanced team. Their 3.49 earned run average was tied with Atlanta for best in the league. The starting staff’s 3.38 ERA was best in the majors. But the offense was more middling, with a .224/.311/.376 batting line as a club.

The club surely would have loved to add more offense but didn’t have significant resources to do so. Reporting throughout the winter indicated that the Mariners were going to increase payroll by around $15MM relative to last year. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their Opening Day payroll at $140MM. RosterResource projects them to go into 2025 at $152MM, a $12MM increase. Their free agent signings this winter have been a $3.5MM deal for Donovan Solano, a 37-year-old infielder, and bringing back Jorge Polanco. The M’s turned down a $12MM club option on Polanco, opting for the $750K buyout, but re-signed him via a one-year, $7.75MM deal with a player/vesting option.

Generally speaking, the club hasn’t been a big player in free agency. Cot’s hasn’t had the club’s payroll higher than 11th in the league in any of the past 15 seasons. They’ve been in the bottom half of the league in each of the past five years. In the past decade, they have only twice given a free agent a guarantee larger than $24MM. Yusei Kikuchi got a four-year, $56MM deal back in 2019, though he opted out after three years. Robbie Ray got a five-year, $115MM deal but was traded to the Giants after two years.

Turner was acquired from the Blue Jays at last year’s deadline and finished the year with the Mariners. According to Divish, the club offered him a deal to return, with the guarantee larger than the $6MM pact he eventually accepted from the Cubs. At the time of the offer from the M’s, Turner seemingly felt he could do better and didn’t accept, which prompted the M’s to pivot to Solano and Polanco.

Turner made clear that his criticism wasn’t mere sour grapes about not being re-signed. “Honestly, as much as I wanted to be back there,” Turner said to Nightengale, “if I was the only piece they brought back in, I would be saying the same thing: What the hell are we doing? Are you trying? There’s not going to a better time to go for it. So, I don’t know what they’re doing. I’m very confused. It’s a head-scratcher for me.”

Ultimately, the criticism is mostly geared towards ownership and the lack of resources it has provided to the front office. “I thought [Pete] Alonso was a slam-dunk,” Turner said. “How can you not go after him? You kidding me?” But Alonso re-signed with the Mets on a two-year, $54MM deal. He will get $30MM of that in the first year, which is double what the Mariners had to work with this winter. Turner emphasized that he didn’t hold Dipoto responsible for the parameters he was given.

“I think Jerry catches a bad rap for a lot of these trades and how crazy some of these trades have been,” Turner said. “But now being a part of it, I kind of understand. He doesn’t have any money to spend, so he’s got to create money. Like, OK, is it really Jerry’s fault?” Turner then referenced the 2021 trade wherein the M’s sent Kendall Graveman to the Astros for Abraham Toro, saying he “probably needed to trade guys just to be able to spend money in the offseason, which is nuts.”

Turner also expressed sympathy for the club’s frustrated supporters who are caught up in the situation. “I feel for them. They’ve got great fans. Their fans are amazing. They want to win so bad. The team is very profitable. And they don’t spend.”

It’s perhaps illustrative of a level of discontent that exists in the Seattle clubhouse but doesn’t always come out. Catcher Cal Raleigh expressed some frustration after the club’s disappointing 2023 season finished, though he later apologized. “We’ve got to commit to winning,” Raleigh said at that time, “to going and getting those players. You see other teams going out, going for it, getting big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up.”

Turner is no longer in the organization and is also 40 years old, meaning he doesn’t have to fear any negative repercussions for speaking out. The incumbent Mariners who spoke to Divish refrained from going on the record but seemed to largely agree with Turner’s points.

Though the player frustration seemed to be largely pointed at ownership, many Seattle fans have their frustrations with Dipoto. His now-infamous “54%” comments from October of 2023 are sort of legendary among his haters. For those unfamiliar, after the club just missed the playoffs in October of 2023, Dipoto said that “teams that win 54 percent of the time always wind up in the postseason and they more often than not wind up in a World Series. … Nobody wants to hear ‘the goal this year is we’re going to win 54 percent of the time.’ But over time that type of mindset gets you there.”

Blum asked him about those comments and his general ability to speak in a manner that seems to rub people the wrong way. “People obviously didn’t understand it the way I expressed it,” Dipoto said. “My guess is that 98 percent of people didn’t actually listen to it. They just read it off a tweet. It’s what it is. Maybe they wouldn’t have understood it any better had they heard the whole thing. And that’s on me for poorly communicating what I think is a simple idea.”

Dipoto says he has scaled back his media appearances since he’s aware that he’s become something of a lightning rod. “Truly, I could say ‘hello,’” Dipoto said, “and it would turn into a thing right now.” He also expressed to Blum that the very interviewing he was giving would probably not be well received. “I’m gonna get roasted,” he said to Blum.

He did somewhat attempt to frame the lack of spending as a strategy, saying that most great teams have been “built on a foundation of draft, sign, develop or trade. That’s what we’ve communicated to our fans for a decade.” Though at the same time, he also said he’s aware there’s a desire for “The big move. The grand slam. The big free agent.” and that “maybe that’ll happen at some point” but they “didn’t think this was the right time, or the right group of players that fit for us.”

Regardless of how one feels about it, the club is largely banking on the Seattle lineup continuing a strong finish to the 2024 season. The club acquired both Turner and Randy Arozarena at the deadline last year. A few weeks later, they fired manager Scott Servais and hitting coach Jarret DeHart. Servais was replaced by Dan Wilson while Edgar Martínez took over as hitting coach. Martínez is still with the club but with the title of senior director, hitting strategy. He’s not expected to go on road trips, with Kevin Seitzer now to be the club’s primary hitting coach, though he will apparently report to Martínez.

For what it’s worth, the M’s hit .264/.347/.433 in the month of September. That translated to a 128 wRC+ for that month, a mark that trailed only the Dodgers. That was a huge upgrade over the .216/.304/.364 they hit from March to August. We’re talking about just one month, and some of Seattle’s opponents were out of contention and playing out the string. But if there was any meaningful improvement in there that the M’s could carry over, they could be in a better position than last year. If not, it could lead to another offseason of frustration in Seattle.

Cubs Notes: Infield, Pressly, Little

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The Cubs’ infield alignment figures to be in flux throughout both the Tokyo Series and perhaps even into the early days of the season stateside. As noted by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers earlier this week, second baseman Nico Hoerner will not be participating in the Tokyo Series with the Cubs as he recovers from offseason flexor tendon surgery. Instead, Hoerner will stay behind in Arizona in hopes of being ready for the start of the stateside regular season on March 27, which Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times notes the infielder currently appears to be “on track” for.

That’s fairly good news overall, as Hoerner entered camp with an unknown timeline for return from surgery and it wouldn’t have necessarily been a shock to see him miss the first few weeks of the regular season. In that context, missing just the first two games of the year would be a notable win. What complicates matters further, however, is the questions surrounding top prospect Matt Shaw. The club’s presumptive starting third baseman, Shaw has been slowed by an oblique issue this spring and has yet to get into a game.

Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network relayed comments from manager Craig Counsell earlier this week on Shaw’s status. Counsell noted that the Cubs “aren’t ruling [Shaw] out for anything,” suggesting he could be in play for the Tokyo Series. With that being said, however, Shaw has not yet made his Spring Training debut despite Counsell referring to Shaw as “not too far” from getting into games last week.

While Hoerner is unavailable, utility man Jon Berti figures to slide into the opening at second base. If Shaw is also unavailable for the Tokyo Series, however, things could get a bit more complicated. The final bench spot for the club’s ultimately 26-man roster remains up for grabs, with Rule 5 pick Gage Workman, trade acquisition Vidal Brujan, and non-roster invitee Nicky Lopez all in the conversation to join Berti, Carson Kelly, and Justin Turner on the club’s bench.

Any of them could be in the conversation to cover for Shaw in the event that both Shaw and Hoerner are unavailable for the start of the season, although it seems as though Turner could be an option as well. The 40-year-old hasn’t played third base on a regular basis since 2022, but the veteran told reporters (including those at Marquee Sports Network) that he’s been taking “a lot of” reps at the hot corner this spring to stretch out his arm in order to be ready to fill in at the position if necessary.

Moving on to the bullpen, veteran right-hander Ryan Pressly was acquired from the Astros this winter to help bolster the club’s bullpen mix. Reporting at the time of the trade suggested that Pressly was assured that he would be the club’s top candidate for saves this season prior to waiving his no-trade clause to join the club. That could certainly be the case, and Lee writes that Pressly remains a favorite for the closer job, though it’s worth noting she also acknowledges young right-hander Porter Hodge as another potential favorite for save opportunities. Hodge dazzled in his rookie season last year, posting a sterling 1.88 ERA with a 2.75 FIP in 43 innings of work while picking up nine saves along the way.

Given that framing of Pressly and Hodge as both being potential favorites for the closer job, it’s possible that the club could utilize both hurlers in the ninth inning depending on matchups. For his part, Pressly expressed a preference for pitching in the ninth inning but made clear that he doesn’t see the role as assured.

‘‘I’ve done every role under the sun in the bullpen, but I really felt like I got my stride when I was in that ninth-inning role,’’ Pressly said, as relayed by Lee. ‘‘And I’m happy for the opportunity to be back in it. And now it’s just a matter of seeing what I can do with it.’’

Elsewhere in the bullpen, Lee reports that southpaw Luke Little threw live batting practice for the first time of the spring yesterday. Little has been slowed throughout camp due to what pitching coach Tommy Hottovy described to Lee as “typical offseason issues” that impacted the southpaw’s buildup this winter unrelated to the lat strain that ended his 2024 season. It’s unclear whether Little will be ready for domestic Opening Day or not, though as a reliever with options remaining in a crowded bullpen the southpaw may wind up starting the season at Triple-A Iowa even if he’s healthy.

Cubs Sign Justin Turner

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The Cubs are bringing one of the game’s most experienced veteran hitters into the fold, announcing Thursday that they’ve signed Justin Turner to a one-year contract. Outfielder Alexander Canario has been designated for assignment (as was reported earlier today). Turner, a VaynerSports client, is reportedly guaranteed $6MM with incentives also available. The guarantee breaks down as a $4MM salary and $2MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for 2026. As for the incentives, Turner would get $125K for getting to 350, 375, 400, 425, 450 and 475 plate appearances. He’d get $250K for getting to 500, 525 and 550 plate appearances. There’s also $250K for 120 and 150 days on the active roster, as well as a $500K bonus every time he’s traded.

Despite his age, the now-40-year-old Turner remained a productive bat for the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2024. He hit 24 doubles and 11 home runs while continuing to make the most of his plate discipline and contact skills en route to a .737 OPS and 117 wRC+. The righty batter was particularly productive for Seattle in September, slashing .295/.396/.449 with a 143 wRC+. In other words, there is little reason to doubt that he can still be a valuable contributor to a team with postseason aspirations.

Turner has qualified for the batting title in each of the past four seasons, but he will take on more of a part-time role with the Cubs. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers notes that Turner is expected to fill a backup role at first and third base. Chicago reportedly considered many options for such a job but ultimately settled on Turner after missing out on star third baseman Alex Bregman (per Rogers). The Cubs were a finalist to sign Bregman before he joined the Red Sox instead. The team also reportedly considered trading for Nolan Arenado, although it comes as no surprise that the Cardinals weren’t interested in trading Arenado to a division rival (per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney).

Primarily a third baseman in his younger days, Turner has only played a handful of games at the hot corner in each of the past two seasons. Instead, he has transitioned to a first base/DH role. Both of those jobs are already spoken for in Chicago, with promising sophomore Michael Busch at first base and Seiya Suzuki, arguably the team’s second-best hitter after Kyle Tucker, penciled in at DH. Still, the Cubs plan to use Turner primarily at those two spots, per Mooney; Turner won’t be lining up at third base with any regularity.

Turner could potentially platoon with Busch at first if the lefty batter struggles against same-handed pitching. On top of that, Turner will offer the club insurance in the case of an injury to Busch, Suzuki, or a corner outfielder; if Tucker or Ian Happ gets hurt, Suzuki could play the outfield with Turner taking over as the primary DH. Even if everyone is healthy, the Cubs could give Happ or Tucker the occasional breather and plug Turner in at designated hitter on such days.

With regard to third base, top prospect Matt Shaw seems to be the most likely choice to win the job out of camp, but the 23-year-old has yet to play a game at the big league level. Thus, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made it clear that Shaw is not yet guaranteed the starting job. However, the Cubs don’t exactly have a ton of other options. Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan both have MLB experience at third, but neither is a starting-caliber player at the position. Meanwhile, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is himself an unknown quantity; he has not played a game above Double-A. Turner isn’t an everyday solution, but he’ll at least improve the team’s depth at third while providing a quality bat to deepen the team’s offense.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic was first to report that the Cubs and Turner were finalizing a one-year, $6MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed there was an agreement in place and reported the performance bonuses, as well as the full breakdown.

Cubs Designate Alexander Canario For Assignment

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The Cubs are designating outfielder Alexander Canario for assignment in order to open a roster spot for Justin Turner, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Canario is out of minor league options and would’ve either needed to break camp with the team or else be designated for assignment (and subsequently waived or traded) at the end of spring training.

Canario, 25 in May, came to the Cubs alongside righty Caleb Kilian in the 2021 deadline swap that sent Kris Bryant to San Francisco. At the time, Canario was considered among the Giants’ ten or so top prospects due in large part to his plus raw power. Just 21 years old and in Low-A at the time of the trade, he’d undergone shoulder surgery to repair a labrum tear the year prior. His 2021 season produced sub-par results, but that’s not a surprise for a player trying to get back into the swing of things following a canceled 2020 campaign and a notable surgery.

Subsequent seasons have yielded better results at the plate but ongoing questions about Canario’s hit tool, approach at the plate and ability to stay on the field. He crushed 37 home runs while batting .252/.343/.556 across three minor league levels in 2022. He was limited to 59 games in 2023 — including a brief six-game MLB debut — when an ankle injury and further shoulder troubles slowed him. Canario popped 18 homers in 64 Triple-A games in 2024 and logged a .280/.357/.443 line in 28 big league plate appearances.

Even beyond the durability concerns, Canario’s performance in the upper minors gives reason for pause. His surface-level stats, particularly his power output, look quite appealing. He hit .248/.329/.552 with 24 homers in just 350 Double-A plate appearances and .252/.345/.521 with 32 homers in only 528 Triple-A plate appearances. However, Canario fanned at a 26% clip in Double-A and a 28.9% clip in Triple-A.

Canario’s strikeout troubles have actually risen even as his time in Triple-A has progressed. He fanned at a 25% rate in his first 20 games there back in 2022 but saw that number rise to 28% in 36 games in 2023 and a huge 30.4% in 64 games last year. He’s only taken 45 MLB plate appearances but has punched out in 42.2% of them (19 times). The 63.5% contact rate Canario posted in Triple-A last year would’ve ranked dead-last among qualified big league hitters by a margin of more than two percentage points. In his 45 MLB plate appearances, he’s made contact on only 59.8% of his swings.

Defensively, Canario is limited to a corner and is not regarded as a plus defender — despite having a plus arm. He’s a slightly below-average runner who lacks the range for center field. That profile, paired with his plus raw power and notable platoon splits, has prompted scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs and other outlets to project him on the short side of a right field platoon in the majors.

At this point, Canario had presumably fallen to no better than sixth or seventh on the Cubs’ outfield depth chart. Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker form the starting trio, with Seiya Suzuki slotted for regular DH work and occasional corner duties. Kevin Alcantara is on the cusp of MLB readiness and is younger with better defense, multiple minor league options remaining and a vastly higher ceiling overall. Fellow top prospect Owen Caissie is also on the 40-man roster and had surely leapfrogged Canario as well.

Given his huge raw power, Canario could very well end up with another club by way of a small trade or waiver claim. But Canario’s prodigious swing-and-miss rates, broad-reaching susceptibility to breaking pitches and minimal defensive upside all combine to make him less appealing to big league clubs than some might expect when looking at his surface-level numbers. Former Cardinals outfield prospect Moises Gomez found himself in a similar spot last spring and went unclaimed on waivers.

Canario’s DFA window will last for one week, but if the Cubs are to trade him, they’ll need to do so within five days. Outright waivers are a 48-hour process, so if Canario isn’t traded within five days’ time, he’ll head to the waiver wire.

Cubs Among Teams With Interest In Justin Turner

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The Cubs are considering Justin Turner as an alternative to Alex Bregman, write Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Turner will be limited to one year as he enters his age-40 season. Bregman has reportedly continued to seek a deal of six-plus years, while the Cubs seem to prefer a much shorter term.

Turner remains a quality offensive player. He combined for a .259/.354/.383 slash across 539 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and Mariners last season. His production improved after a deadline trade to Seattle, no small feat for a hitter adapting to the game’s most pitcher-friendly home park. It was the 11th consecutive season in which Turner has been an above-average hitter. While he doesn’t have the same power that he did during his peak years with the Dodgers, he’s still a strong on-base presence with very good strike zone discipline.

Chicago isn’t the lone team with interest in both Bregman and Turner. Mooney and Rosenthal write that the Tigers and Red Sox have also shown some level of interest in Turner. That comprises three of what appears to be the top four suitors — alongside the incumbent Astros — on Bregman. Houston has not been linked to Turner and wouldn’t make sense as a landing spot with Yordan Alvarez ticketed for DH work.

The Cubs could be a tough roster fit in their own right. Seiya Suzuki will get the majority of at-bats at designated hitter. He’s capable of playing right field but squeezed out of a starting outfield of Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. Turner would be a target as a role-playing corner infield bat. The Cubs have lefty-swinging Michael Busch lined up for the bulk of the first base work. They don’t have any kind of established third baseman after including Isaac Paredes in the Tucker trade. Unless they make a late-offseason strike for Bregman, they’d very likely turn the hot corner to top prospect Matt Shaw.

Turner is not an everyday third baseman at this point of his career. He started four games there last season after logging seven starts in 2023. He hasn’t played more than half a season at the position since 2021. Turner has played more frequently at first base, where he started 40 games last year. He could take some at-bats from Busch against lefty pitching, though Busch had a respectable showing (.258/.330/.382 in 100 plate appearances) in unfavorable platoon situations as a rookie.

The Tigers and Red Sox have each been seeking a right-handed bat. Boston has limited flexibility to accommodate another player at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. The Sox have Rafael Devers and Triston Casas as their corner infield tandem. Masataka Yoshida is lined up for the bulk of the DH work going into the third season of his five-year deal. Boston would probably use Bregman at second base if they landed him. The Sox gave Turner himself four starts at the keystone when he played in Boston in 2023. He wouldn’t play second regularly but could rotate through the position alongside Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton if top prospect Kristian Campbell opens the season in Triple-A.

Detroit signed Gleyber Torres to play second base. That kicked Colt Keith over to first base, squeezing righty-hitting Spencer Torkelson out of the starting lineup. Turner’s right-handed bat could play well in a lefty-heavy corner infield/DH mix. Keith and Jace Jung, the projected starter at third base if they don’t sign Bregman, each hit from the left side. Kerry Carpenter, who’ll split his time between right field and DH, is a lefty hitter who mashes when he holds the platoon advantage.

Seattle showed interest in a Turner reunion early in the offseason. That’s less likely now that they’ve added righty-hitting Donovan Solano on a $3.5MM free agent deal to platoon with Luke Raley at first base. Mooney and Rosenthal report that the Reds have also spoken with Turner this offseason, though it’s not clear if that interest is ongoing. Cincinnati acquired Gavin Lux to deepen the infield and could give righty hitters Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer a decent amount of run at first base.

Free Agent Faceoff: Justin Turner / J.D. Martinez

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Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.

Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.

Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.

Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.

As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.

With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.

It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.

On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.

So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?

Mariners Seeking Right-Handed, Veteran First Baseman

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It’s been a quiet offseason so far for the Mariners, who have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. They have been linked to trade candidates like Cody Bellinger, Alec Bohm, and Nico Hoerner, and are reportedly listening to offers for Luis Castillo, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto came away from the Winter Meetings without pulling off any swaps either.

Still, the Mariners remain on the lookout for ways to improve an offense that finished 21st in runs scored in 2024. Reports surfaced at the beginning of the offseason that the club was looking for infield bats. Earlier this week, Dipoto confirmed that first, second, and third base are all areas of need (per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). As things stand, shortstop J.P. Crawford seems to be Seattle’s only infielder with a guaranteed everyday starting role.

According to Divish, the Mariners were aiming to check first base off their to-do list before the end of the Winter Meetings. They had previously expressed interest in both Carlos Santana and Justin Turner, and they were apparently willing to offer either veteran a one-year deal this week. Needless to say, neither fish was biting, but that doesn’t mean Dipoto has given up. On that note, Divish offered further insight into Seattle’s pursuit of Santana and Turner, reporting that the team is looking for an experienced hitter who can bat from the right side to split playing time with the lefty-batting Luke Raley. Raley hits well against righties but struggled badly in limited playing time against same-handed pitching in 2024. Turner has had neutral platoon splits throughout his career, and the switch-hitting Santana has done his best work against southpaws. Either could make a productive platoon partner for Raley.

With that said, one has to wonder if the newly minted Gold Glove winner Santana would be willing to accept anything less than a full-time job at first base. He’s coming off his best season in five years and might not be interested in a role that would involve splitting playing time. Turner, on the other hand, thrived in a first base/DH role for Seattle down the stretch in 2024. He has also made it clear that he’d be happy to return to the M’s. At the end of the regular season, he told Daniel Kramer of MLB.com in no uncertain terms, “I would love to be back and be a Mariner.”

Then again, if Santana can be persuaded to sign in Seattle, he might be the more impactful player. Thanks to his strong defense, he has outproduced Turner over the past two years according to every version of Wins Above Replacement. He’s also a year and a half younger than Turner, who turned 40 in November. To that point, Divish suggested the Mariners might be leaning toward Santana in a recent appearance on the “Daily Puck Drop” podcast, saying he believes Santana is their “priority” right now at first base.

Speaking of righty-batting, veteran first basemen, the Mariners have also expressed interest in Christian Walker. Kramer reports the team has had “conversations” about signing Walker, though he notes the three-time Gold Glove winner is probably out of their price range. Indeed, Divish suggests the Mariners have approximately $15MM to $17MM left to spend this winter, barring any trades to cut payroll. Given the fact that Walker turned down the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, he is surely looking for a contract worth more than $17MM per year. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $60MM deal for Walker on our Top 50 Free Agents list. While he could be a far more valuable addition than either Santana or Turner, that value will be reflected in his asking price.

It’s also worth pointing out that a player like Walker certainly isn’t going to split playing time with Raley. He is going to be the everyday first baseman wherever he signs. Thus, if the Mariners were to sign Walker, it would push Raley into the designated hitter role. That could be another reason the fit doesn’t make sense. Alternatively, perhaps Dipoto could package the talented and cost-controlled Raley with one of his higher-priced veterans (such as Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver) as a way to get another team to take on one of his desirable contracts. If he could pull off such a move, perhaps he could free up enough payroll to sign Walker without going over budget.

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

Mariners Showing Interest In Carlos Santana

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander already confirmed earlier in the offseason that the club has discussed a potential reunion with Justin Turner, and they’re also weighing a reunion with another former Mariner. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the M’s have spoken to free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, who spent part of the 2022 season in Seattle. Jude cites multiple sources in adding that interest in bringing one of the two back to Seattle is strong enough that it’s considered a “likelihood” the Mariners will close a deal with one of them.

Santana, 39 in April, is fresh off his best year since 2019. He spent the 2024 campaign in Minnesota, serving as the Twins’ everyday first baseman and winning a Gold Glove for his defensive efforts there. He also slashed .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers in 594 plate appearances. That’s good for a solid 114 wRC+ (indicating he was 14% better than league-average at the plate), but setting aside a catastrophically poor first three weeks of the season, Santana hit .253/.342/.460 (129 wRC+, or 29%  better than average) after connecting on his first homer in late April.

That type of production would appeal to just about any club, particularly when coupled with excellent defense and a stellar clubhouse reputation. That latter factor is also a key part of the Mariners’ interest in both Turner and Santana, per Jude. At the end of the season, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto voiced a desire to add some veteran voices to help lead a young clubhouse, Jude writes, specifically name-dropping both Turner and Santana as examples of players who’ve played key leadership roles during partial seasons in Seattle.

There are other reasons to think both players fit the Mariners’ roster. Both Turner (17.6%) and Santana (16.7%) struck out well below the 22.6% league average in 2024. The Mariners’ collective 26.8% strikeout rate was the worst in MLB. Whittling that number down should be a priority, and either veteran first baseman would help the club take strides toward that end.

Both Turner and Santana are also natural fits to pair up with Luke Raley at first base. Turner’s right-handed bat makes him a logical platoon partner at first, and he hits righties enough to take DH at-bats even when Raley draws a start in the field. Santana’s glove probably would push Raley to a primary DH/corner outfield role, but the veteran switch-hitter is much better from the right side of the plate. For a Mariners club that hit only .213/.300/.363 against southpaws last year, Santana’s .286/.356/.578 slash against lefties has to look especially appealing.

Either Santana or Turner should be available on a one-year deal. Santana will surely command a raise on last year’s modest $5.25MM salary, whereas Turner could be in line for a cut from last year’s $13MM rate of pay. Again, for a Mariners club that’s expected to increase payroll, but perhaps not by leaps and bounds over the roughly $145MM mark at which they finished the 2024 campaign, that makes either veteran a logical target. RosterResource currently projects the Mariners for a $150MM payroll, though that figure could change in the next 36 hours based on non-tenders and/or potential trades of non-tender candidates.

The Mariners haven’t been shy about their desire to add infield bats this offseason. Dipoto and Hollander have voiced confidence in an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Raley. They’re looking to add a bat capable of spending some time at first base and either a second baseman or third baseman — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore standing as candidates to platoon at the other spot. Turner or Santana would check one box and do so both affordably and while improving the club’s overall contact rate.

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