Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians
Fed up after a 2012 season in which they went 68-94 and allowed 178 runs more than they scored, the Indians attempted to force their way into contention by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn the following offseason. Cleveland improved by 24 games in 2013 and made the postseason for the first time since 2007, falling in a one-game playoff against the Rays. They'll aim to repeat that success in 2013, but first they'll need to patch up their pitching staff.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nick Swisher, 1B/OF: $45MM through 2016
- Michael Bourn, OF: $41MM through 2016
- Carlos Santana, C: $19.6MM through 2017
- Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $10MM through 2014
- Ryan Raburn, UT: $4.9MM through 2015
- Mike Aviles, 2B: $3.75MM through 2014
- Trevor Bauer, P: $1.2MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligibles
- Justin Masterson, SP (5.108): $9.7MM
- Chris Perez, RP (5.136): $9MM (non-tender candidate)
- Drew Stubbs, OF (4.047): $3.8MM (non-tender candidate)
- Michael Brantley, OF (3.131): $3.7MM
- Marc Rzepczynski, RP (3.131): $1.4MM
- Vinnie Pestano, RP (2.159): $1.3MM (non-tender candidate)
- Josh Tomlin, SP (3.071): $1.1MM (non-tender candidate)
- Lou Marson, C (4.036): $1MM (non-tender candidate)
- Blake Wood, RP (3.107): $800K (non-tender candidate)
- Frank Herrmann, RP (2.147): $600K (non-tender candidate)
Contract Options
- Ubaldo Jimenez, $8MM club option, $1MM buyout; Jimenez may void option after being traded by Rockies
- Jason Kubel, OF: $7.5MM mutual option, $1MM buyout
Free Agents
The Indians' additions of Swisher and Bourn were important parts of the their 2013 season, but those weren't the only reasons they succeeded. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana continued to emerge as top young players. Yan Gomes, acquired the previous offseason in a relatively minor trade with the Blue Jays, caught 85 games and was one of Cleveland's best hitters. And Ryan Raburn posted a ridiculous .272/.357/.543 line in a part-time role. Meanwhile, the Indians' starting pitchers — primarily Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir and Zach McAllister — were very reliable, which might not have seemed that likely at the beginning of the year.
The Indians' rotation will likely be the focus of much of their offseason. Kazmir is a free agent, and Jimenez essentially is as well. Danny Salazar, coming off a brilliant season split between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, will take over one of their spots, but that still leaves one opening. It's not impossible that Kazmir will be back, but it's very unlikely that Jimenez will be. After Masterson, Salazar, Kluber and McAllister, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are probably the Indians' next options; Carrasco is a perfectly reasonable depth piece (if not more), but Bauer did not even pitch well at Triple-A in 2013.
The right side of the Indians' infield is relatively set, with Swisher as the primary starter at first and Kipnis at second. (Swisher could also start in the outfield if need be, freeing the Indians to pursue another first baseman, but the free agent market at first base is not particularly strong.) Asdrubal Cabrera is still Cleveland's shortstop, although the Indians could consider trading him this offseason, given his $10MM salary and the presence of top prospect Francisco Lindor. Lindor does not turn 20 until November and probably will not make his big-league debut until late 2014, at the earliest, so if the Indians were to trade Cabrera, they could look for a free agent shortstop or hand the position to Mike Aviles.
Lonnie Chisenhall will likely play third; the former first-round pick has not managed to stick in parts of three seasons in the Majors, but he only turned 25 this month and has hit well at Triple-A. Aviles, who got 37 starts for the Indians at third in 2013, will likely pick up starts at third yet again if Chisenhall continues to struggle. Gomes and Santana will continue on as the Indians' catchers, with Santana also picking up starts at first and DH. The Indians also apparently have interest in keeping Jason Giambi for 2014, either as a player or a coach.
Bourn and Michael Brantley will occupy two outfield spots, which leaves one open. Drew Stubbs hit just .233/.305/.360 in 2013; given his defense and the fact that he's relatively cheap, it might still be worth tendering him a contract, but the Indians likely won't want to go into Spring Training with him penciled in as a starter. The Indians do have an in-house alternative in Ryan Raburn, who was revelatory in 2013. His spectacular hitting was so far out of character, though, that it's hard to see him repeating it, particularly if he doesn't get 45% of his plate appearances against lefties again. Anyway, even if the Indians acquire another outfielder, finding at bats for Raburn shouldn't be hard.
In the bullpen, the Indians may find themselves looking for a new closer, given Chris Perez's struggles down the stretch and his projected 2014 salary of $9MM. If the Indians do indeed non-tender Perez, young righty Cody Allen, who posted 11.3 K/9 while throwing mid-90s gas last season, would be an excellent candidate to replace him. In addition to Perez, several other relievers could depart, including Joe Smith, Rich Hill and Matt Albers. Along with Allen, Bryan Shaw and Marc Rzepczynski are the only obvious returnees. The Indians could promote an arm or two for the minors, but it still looks like they may need to sign a reliever or two out of free agency.
The Indians, then, could have three key items on their to-do list: replacing Jimenez and/or Kazmir; adding a hitter to play either first base or right field, whichever Swisher doesn't occupy; and buying themselves a new bullpen. Even after drawing just 1.5MM fans in 2013, the Indians say they'll be able to field a "contending team" in 2014, although they haven't explained what their payroll might be. Without knowing the Indians' financial plans, it's hard to say how their offseason will go. The early signals, however, aren't that encouraging for Indians fans, as it already appears very unlikely that the team will be able to re-sign Jimenez. It doesn't take much money to patch up a bullpen, but it does take money to sign a slugger or a good starting pitcher.
On the field, the Indians' 2013 season was a success. But they drew fewer than 20K fans even for some weekend home games in September, when they were in the thick of a playoff race. The previous offseason's acquisitions of Swisher and Bourn were reasonably successful from a baseball perspective, but they did not appear to help attract fans who might have been put off by the team's awful performance in 2012. Swisher and Bourn are under contract for the next three seasons, regardless. Even with the new TV deal to which the Indians agreed before the 2013 season, it remains to be seen whether the team will shell out more money now that it's clear the last spending spree wasn't particularly effective at bringing fans through the gates.
Bullpen and Jimenez aside, then, unless the Indians get creative on the trade market, the key players on the 2014 team may end up being fairly similar to last season's. They won 92 games in 2013, so clearly, that's not the worst thing in the world. But it's fair to wonder if Gomes, Raburn and Kluber, in particular, are really as good as they were in 2013, and whether the Indians have the pitching depth they need. Even if not, the Indians could well make up the difference with slightly better performances from Swisher, Bourn, Chisenhall and Cabrera (if he's still around), along with a full season of Salazar. But a much clearer path to success would be to spend a bit of money to address the rotation and the outfield, and right now, it's not clear whether the Indians will be willing to do it.
Week In Review: 10/20/13 – 10/26/13
Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR:
- The Giants re-signed pitcher Tim Lincecum to a two-year, $35MM deal.
- The Dodgers signed Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero. To clear space for him on their 40-man roster, they designated pitcher Peter Moylan for assignment.
- The Nationals will hire Matt Williams to be their manager.
- The Reds hired Bryan Price to be their new manager.
- The Red Sox acquired outfielder Alex Castellanos from the Dodgers for outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker and cash considerations. To clear space on their 40-man roster, the Sox designated pitcher Pedro Beato for assignment.
- The Padres designated pitchers Tommy Layne and Colt Hynes for assignment.
- The Nationals outrighted first baseman Chris Marrero.
- The Brewers outrighted pitchers Santo Manzanillo, Jesus Sanchez and Josh Ravin.
- The Twins outrighted outfielder Wilkin Ramirez.
- The Athletics re-signed infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima.
- Astros outfielder Trevor Crowe became a free agent.
- White Sox pitcher David Purcey became a free agent.
Quick Hits: Jimenez, McCann, Giants, Diamondbacks
There is "no chance" that the Indians will sign Ubaldo Jimenez to a long-term deal, and they may not even extend a qualifying offer, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM new deal with the Giants demonstrates that, in this market, Jimenez will be out of the Indians' price range. The Indians have an $8MM option on Jimenez for 2014, but Jimenez received the right to void it when the Rockies traded him. The Indians can still use Jimenez, who posted a 3.2 WAR in 2013, so at least extending a qualifying offer would seem to be an easy decision, but Hoynes suggests that even the qualifying offer might be in question. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- The Giants might have interest in Brian McCann as a lefty power source, reports CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. That possibility would, as Heyman notes, be a little strange, since the Giants have one of baseball's best catchers in Buster Posey, and also a very good first baseman in Brandon Belt. A source close to the Giants tells Heyman that "it may depend on how much playing time McCann seeks," which is also somewhat odd, since it's not as if McCann is a borderline starter, or bench fodder. Other clubs surely view McCann as a starter and will be willing to pay him as such.
- The Diamondbacks' payroll will increase in 2014, perhaps to $100MM, AZCentral.com's Nick Piecoro writes. Aaron Hill, Martin Prado and Brandon McCarthy will all have increased salaries in 2014, which means that the DBacks' payroll will likely come in at around $93MM even before considering any free agents they might add.
AL Notes: Oh, Yankees, Twins, Martinez
The Yankees are among the teams interested in Korean pitcher Seung-Hwan Oh, the New York Post's George A. King III writes. Oh, a reliever, must go through the posting process, which begins in November. The 5'10, 31-year-old righty throws a 94-96 MPH fastball and a splitter. He pitched in 51 2/3 innings for the Samsung Lions in 2013, with a 1.74 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Here are more notes from around the AL.
- Twins GM Terry Ryan says his team would give up its 2014 second-round pick to sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer, 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson writes (on Twitter). The Twins' first-rounder, at No. 5 overall, is protected. Still, Wolfson says it seems doubtful that the Twins would actually sign such a free agent, although Ervin Santana might be a possibility.
- Ryan also says the free-agent pitching market will be "very competitive," Wolfson tweets. "You’ll probably be able to get one of them, hopefully," Ryan says. Minnesota's 5.26 rotation ERA in 2013 was easily the worst in the American League, with Scott Diamond, Pedro Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, among others, struggling badly.
- Pedro Martinez reiterates he left the Red Sox for the Mets prior to the 2005 season because the Red Sox refused to offer a contract of significant length, WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes (Twitter links). Martinez wanted a deal with the Red Sox for three years, but Boston only offered two, with the possibility of voiding the second year if Martinez got hurt. The Mets gave Martinez four years and $54MM.
NL Notes: Marlins, Marrero, Lincecum
Despite a 100-loss season in 2013 and the departure of president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest, Marlins president David Samson says the team will not lose 100 games again in 2014, Christina De Nicola of FOX Sports Florida reports. "I promise you this: We're not going to lose 100 games next year. Not close," says Samson, who also praises Michael Hill, who was promoted to president of baseball operations after Beinfest's departure, and new GM Dan Jennings. "Mike Hill and Dan Jennings are really tremendous heads of baseball organizations, and they're going to work really well together to help us win," Samson says. Here are more notes from around the National League.
- The Nationals just outrighted former first-round pick Chris Marrero, but at least one scout believes he still has potential, writes the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore (on Twitter). "I would not give up on Marrero. He can still hit. Just needs the right opportunity with right team, preferably in AL," the scout says. Marrero hit .270/.331/.402 for Triple-A Syracuse this season.
- The Giants had a number of reasons for giving Tim Lincecum a two-year, $35MM contract this week, assistant GM Bobby Evans tells the New York Post's Joel Sherman. The Giants thought Lincecum would have a number of suitors on the free agent market, perhaps including the Mets and Yankees. Also, with Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain as the only sure things in their 2014 rotation, the Giants did not want to have to piece together three-fifths of a rotation this offseason. Finally, the Giants feel that Lincecum's upside would have been hard to replace elsewhere on the free agent market.
Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds had a seemingly successful season in 2013, but an early exit from the playoffs, apparent tensions in their clubhouse, and the possible departure of a star outfielder have led to uncertainty about their future. The Reds still have a strong core in place, but they could go in a number of directions this offseason, some of them franchise-changing.
Guaranteed contracts:
- Joey Votto, 1B: $225MM through 2023
- Brandon Phillips, 2B: $50MM through 2017
- Jay Bruce, OF: $37.5MM through 2016
- Jonathan Broxton, RP: $17MM through 2015
- Sean Marshall, RP: $12MM through 2015
- Ryan Ludwick, OF: $12MM through 2014
- Johnny Cueto, SP: $10.8MM through 2014
- Mat Latos, SP: $7.25MM through 2014
- Jack Hannahan, INF: $3MM through 2014
- Logan Ondrusek, RP: $1.35MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)
- Homer Bailey, SP (5.017): $9.3MM
- Mike Leake, SP (4.000): $5.9MM
- Aroldis Chapman, RP (3.034): $4.6MM
- Ryan Hanigan, C (5.077): $2.3MM
- Chris Heisey, OF (3.157): $1.7MM
- Alfredo Simon, RP (4.142): $1.6MM
- Sam LeCure, RP (3.072): $1MM
- Xavier Paul, OF (3.119): $1MM
- Corky Miller, C (4.111): $700K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
The 2013 Reds won 90 or more games for the third time in the past four seasons, but that doesn't mean that all is well in Cincinnati. The team fired manager Dusty Baker after the season, frustrated that it couldn't handle the Pirates in a regular-season-ending three-game set in Cincinnati or a one-game playoff in Pittsburgh. (The Reds quickly replaced him with pitching coach Bryan Price.) Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, who set the table brilliantly with a .423 on-base percentage, is a free agent. And on top of all that, the team will reportedly try to trade star second baseman Brandon Phillips.
Phillips' situation is unusual. The Reds owe him $50MM through 2017. He's getting older, is coming off a down season, and is developing a reputation as a clubhouse problem, so the Reds aren't likely to get much for him. Nonetheless, his contract, while far from great, isn't terrible, given the escalating cost of wins on the free-agent market. One would think that a good, but aging, second baseman with a long history with the Reds would have more value with his current, contending team than with potential trade partners. But the Reds, fed up with Phillips' attitude, apparently feel that isn't the case.
Phillips aside, the Reds appear set in the infield. Joey Votto is one of baseball's best hitters, and he's signed long-term. (Very long-term — he'll make $25MM per year from 2018 through 2023.) Shortstop Zack Cozart and third baseman Todd Frazier are coming off solid seasons, thanks in part to their good gloves. Cozart isn't a strong offensive player, so he'll need to keep fielding well to be effective, but his 2013 season was certainly good enough to pencil him in at shortstop next year. With Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Hanigan, the Reds will likely stand pat at catcher; those two combined for just 0.4 WAR in 2013, but there's reason to hope that Mesoraco, at least, will improve, due to his youth.
Jay Bruce will man right field, and Ryan Ludwick will likely occupy at least a platoon role in left, with the Reds hoping for a full recovery from the shoulder injury that limited him in 2013. If Choo departs, Billy Hamilton would be the obvious candidate to replace him. Hamilton demonstrated down the stretch that his world-class speed is a tremendous weapon. Between his baserunning and the fact that, unlike Choo, he's a legitimate center fielder, it's not ridiculous to hope that the gap between Hamilton and Choo might not be that big, although Hamilton's .308 on-base percentage at Louisville last season is a warning sign. If Choo signs elsewhere, the number of options that would obviously improve on Hamilton is fairly limited, barring a kamikaze pursuit of Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson in free agency. Perhaps signing a cheap center fielder, like Rajai Davis, Andres Torres or Franklin Gutierrez, or a trade for someone like Peter Bourjos, might make sense as an insurance policy. In any case, the Reds' decision to extend Choo a qualifying offer will be a no-brainer.
In the rotation, the Reds will have Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani. Those five could be the basis of a very good rotation, but the Reds will need depth — as it stands, Pedro Villarreal or Greg Reynolds would be the next up if someone got hurt. The obvious solution would be to re-sign Bronson Arroyo, but he doesn't seem likely to return, and maybe that's for the best. Tim Dierkes predicts that Arroyo will receive a two-year, $24MM deal on the open market, and that seems like a lot to pay for a righty whose fastball barely cracks 87 MPH, who doesn't get many ground balls, and who will be 37 before the start of the 2014 season. Given that the Reds already have five solid rotation options, the better solution might be to hope that Arroyo settles for less, or to look for someone cheaper as their depth option.
The bullpen looks relatively set, with a core of J.J. Hoover, Sam LeCure, Jonathan Broxton, rubber-armed Alfredo Simon and a healthy Sean Marshall backing up star closer Aroldis Chapman. The Reds did have mediocre lefty Zach Duke pitching in key situations down the stretch, so it might not be a bad idea to pursue another left-hander to complement Chapman and Marshall — re-signing Manny Parra, who was effective in 2013, might make sense.
Despite a capable pitching staff and a lineup that's reasonably well-stocked with players who are at least decent, the coming offseason could mark a turning point for the Reds. Baker's firing indicates that they aren't satisfied where they are, and in a tough NL Central (with a perennial powerhouse in St. Louis, a suddenly-relevant Pirates club and a rebuilding Cubs team that could be strong sooner rather than later), maybe they're right not to be. It wouldn't be a shock, then, to see the Reds pull off some outside-the-box move this offseason, along the lines of their signing of Chapman a few years back. (For example, the Reds didn't end up signing Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero, but they did scout him extensively.)
In any case, the outcome of the Reds' offseason may hinge on Choo and Phillips. Choo's suitors could include everyone from the Cubs to the Mets to the Astros. GM Walt Jocketty has said that re-signing Choo might be tricky. But the Reds might be able to manage it, perhaps by saving money in a Phillips trade and allowing Arroyo to depart via free agency.
For Phillips, one destination could be Atlanta, with the Braves potentially shipping Dan Uggla and a prospect to Cincinnati. Uggla's home-run power would likely play well at the Great American Ballpark, but he would be a big defensive downgrade, and he hit .179/.309/.362 last season. The Reds would have to make up the difference between Phillips and Uggla elsewhere on the diamond, and that wouldn't be easy. Phillips may give the Reds headaches, but by attempting to trade him, they may just be creating another one. Despite playing a corner outfielder in center field, the Reds led baseball in defensive efficiency in 2013. Their fielding was a boon for their pitchers, who posted an ERA nearly half a run lower than their FIP. It would be odd if the Reds began their offseason by replacing one of their most valuable defensive players.
The Uggla rumor might be an unlikely one — he wouldn't save the Reds money, at least not through 2015, so swapping him for Phillips would be an unambiguous step backwards for the Reds that wouldn't give them much chance of making up for it in the short term. But in any case, the Reds will have to be creative this offseason. They could sign a starting pitcher, then deal from their rotation depth for help in the outfield. Bailey, who is set for free agency after the 2014 season, is a wild card; the Reds could trade him, or try to sign him to a long-term deal. The Reds begin their offseason with a number of balls in the air, and when April comes, it's unclear who will be around to catch them.
Quick Hits: McCann, Lincecum, Red Sox, Scherzer
Brian McCann's foray into free agency is well-timed, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Cubs and Angels could all have interest in him, perhaps along with the Blue Jays and White Sox. The fact that big-market teams like the Red Sox (whose primary catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, is also a free agent) and Yankees might be on the lookout for a catcher could drive McCann's price sky-high. Here are more notes from around the Majors.
- Tim Lincecum did indeed decline a two-year deal to remain with the Giants, but Heyman says that doesn't mean Lincecum is looking for a longer contract. Instead, Lincecum was seeking a one- or two-year deal with the Giants, seemingly hoping to recover his earlier, Cy Young-caliber form before heading back out on the free-agent market. The Mariners, Dodgers and Angels could all have interest in Lincecum, Heyman writes.
- The Red Sox' run to the World Series has been stressful and exciting for its front office, writes MLB.com's Ian Browne. "Those of us in the front office, we're kind of just along for the ride at this point," says GM Ben Cherington. "When the games start, we're rooting so hard, we're fans, and every pitch is like an event. So some parts of the games are hard to watch. We enjoy grand slams and the last three outs when Koji [Uehara] is on the mound. That's about it."
- It's unclear what the Tigers will do with Max Scherzer this offseason, the New York Post's Joel Sherman writes. Scherzer can become a free agent after 2014, and many executives for other teams believe the Tigers will shop him. Others believe, though, that the Tigers will simply pretend they might trade Scherzer in order to get Scherzer to encourage his agent, Scott Boras, to negotiate a long-term deal.
Week In Review: 10/13/13 – 10/19/13
Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR.
- The White Sox agreed to sign Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu to a six-year, $68MM deal.
- Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan retired.
- Dodgers manager Don Mattingly will return in 2014.
- The Rockies signed manager Walt Weiss to a three-year extension.
- The Red Sox will sign Cuban pitcher Dalier Hinojosa.
- The Rays sent infielder Ben Kline and pitcher Sean Bierman to the White Sox to complete the Jesse Crain trade.
- The Diamondbacks signed pitcher Matt Reynolds to a one-year deal with a club option, avoiding arbitration.
- The Dodgers claimed outfielder Mike Baxter from the Mets. To make room on their roster, they designated outfielder Alex Castellanos for assignment.
- The Angels claimed pitcher Robert Carson from the Mets.
- The Rangers claimed pitcher Edwar Cabrera from the Rockies.
- Rangers infielder Jeff Baker became a free agent after the team designated him for assignment.
- The Rockies outrighted pitchers Jeff Manship and Manny Corpas, who both became free agents.
- The Phillies outrighted pitcher John Lannan, who then opted for free agency. The Phillies also outrighted outfielders Casper Wells and Roger Bernadina and pitchers Cesar Jimenez and J.C. Ramirez. Wells, Bernadina and Ramirez also became free agents.
- The White Sox outrighted pitcher David Purcey.
- The Astros outrighted outfielder Trevor Crowe and pitcher Jorge De Leon.
- The Mets outrighted pitchers Greg Burke and Sean Henn.
- The Marlins outrighted outfielder Alfredo Silverio.
- The Indians re-signed reliever Matt Capps.
Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
After their first winning season and playoff berth in 21 years, the Pirates find themselves in an enviable position, with a fairly sturdy roster and a strong farm system. It remains to be seen whether they will play it safe this offseason, heading into camp next year with a roster similar to last year's, or whether they'll make headlines with a splashy move or two.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Andrew McCutchen, OF: $44.25MM through 2017
- Jose Tabata, OF: $11.75MM through 2016
- Russell Martin, C: $8.5MM through 2014
- Francisco Liriano, SP: $6MM through 2014
- Jason Grilli, RP: $4MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)
- Garrett Jones, OF (4.158): $5.3MM (non-tender candidate)
- Neil Walker, 2B (3.166): $4.8MM
- Pedro Alvarez, 3B (3.085): $4MM
- Charlie Morton, SP (5.010): $3.9MM
- Mark Melancon, RP (3.098): $3MM
- Gaby Sanchez, 1B (4.025): $2.3MM
- Travis Snider, OF (3.091): $1.4MM (non-tender candidate)
- Michael McKenry, C (2.136): $900K (non-tender candidate)
- Vin Mazzaro, RP (3.021): $800K
- Felix Pie, OF (4.028): $500K (non-tender candidate)
Contract Options
- Wandy Rodriguez, SP: $13MM player option (Astros will pay $5.5MM if Rodriguez accepts)
Free Agents
Whenever a small-market team follows 20 straight losing seasons with an unexpected 94-win campaign, you know what the narrative will be: They're the young, scrappy Davids who somehow managed to compete with Goliath. When it comes to the Pirates, that's true, to an extent — their top player, Andrew McCutchen, didn't turn 27 until October, and they also got plenty of mileage from homegrown talents Starling Marte, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Gerrit Cole, Tony Watson and Justin Wilson.
For an upstart team, though, the 2013 Pirates also got a ton of help from veterans, including several who had very high profiles earlier in their careers. A.J. Burnett quietly was one of the best pitchers in the National League, leading the NL in K/9 and ground ball percentage. Russell Martin anchored the Pirates' pitching staff and was fantastic behind the plate, rating 23 runs above average on defense, according to FanGraphs. Francisco Liriano was one of the best bargain-basement signings of the 2012-13 offseason. And the top two relievers in the Pirates' bullpen, Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon, were dominant.
While the Pirates may not have been that young, though, they're well-positioned to compete in the near future, even if it will be tough to repeat their 94-win 2013 performance. There's no reason to think McCutchen won't continue to be one of the best position players in baseball, and Marte should continue to post star-caliber seasons alongside him, mostly thanks to his defense. Cole looked more and more like an ace as his debut season went on, and fellow top pick Jameson Taillon will likely soon join him in the Pirates' rotation. The 2013 Pirates had a solid, ground-ball-heavy pitching staff that was aided by terrific fielding (thanks in part to very frequent defensive shifts) and an underrated offense. That probably won't change much in 2014.
The short-term problem for the Pirates, though, will be how to replicate or replace the performances they got from veterans in 2013. Martin and Liriano will be back, but they're unlikely to combine for 7.2 WAR again. Likewise, Grilli and Melancon will have a tough time again combining for 4.0 WAR. And Burnett might not be a Pirate at all — he's still deciding whether to return for another season or to retire. The Pirates also stand to lose Marlon Byrd, who provided a boost to the their offense after an August trade with the Mets.
Offensively, the Pirates are set for 2014 at catcher (Martin), second base (Walker), third base (Alvarez) and two of the outfield positions (McCutchen and Marte). At shortstop, Clint Barmes is a free agent, but newcomer Jordy Mercer easily outhit him in 2013, while also providing credible defense. It will be tough for the Pirates to do better than Mercer this offseason, so their best bet might be to simply re-sign Barmes or acquire another defensive-minded player to serve as Mercer's backup and occasionally give Walker days off against lefties.
That leaves right field and first base. At right field, there is, again, a reasonable case for standing pat — Jose Tabata came on strong at the end of the 2013 season, quietly producing 1.1 WAR in a part-time role. Tabata is defensively limited and offensively erratic, but given his relative youth and the possibility that top prospect Gregory Polanco will occupy the position beginning in late 2014 or early 2015, it might not make sense for the Bucs to make a multiyear commitment to a free agent outfielder, unless he's a superstar. And if Tabata flops, the Pirates could also turn to Andrew Lambo, who hit 33 home runs across three levels in 2013.
First base is where a splashy offseason acquisition would make the most sense — Garrett Jones and Justin Morneau weren't particularly inspiring in 2013, and Gaby Sanchez is most useful as a lefty-killer. Unfortunately, there are few big names to pursue, at least on the free agent market. The Pirates apparently were never serious players for Jose Dariel Abreu, meaning Mike Napoli is the only player on the market who would clearly be a large upgrade. Players like Corey Hart and James Loney (in free agency) and Ike Davis (on the trade market) might also be possibilities, but they aren't great ones.
Any changes to the Pirates' 2014 rotation will likely hinge on whether A.J. Burnett returns. Burnett has said that, if he continues playing, he wants to stay in Pittsburgh, but he's also mulling retirement. If he does stay, it might be for a one-year deal right around the qualifying offer value of $14.1MM, whether or not the Pirates actually extend a qualifying offer. If he returns, he'll join Cole and Liriano atop the Pirates' rotation. Charlie Morton should slot into one of the back two spots, and Wandy Rodriguez, who finished the 2013 season on the disabled list, will likely pick up his player option. That leaves Jeff Locke, who faded badly down the stretch last year, as an insurance policy.
The Pirates also control most of their bullpen. Grilli and Melancon are set to return, along with top lefties Watson and Wilson and, assuming the Pirates tender him, righty Vin Mazzaro. Righty Stolmy Pimentel, who arrived along with Melancon last offseason's Joel Hanrahan trade with the Red Sox, will be out of options, and he pitched well in both the minors and the big leagues last year, so he could occupy another bullpen spot, perhaps along with fellow righty Bryan Morris.
The Pirates' farm system is also well-stocked, with Taillon and Polanco leading the way. The Bucs also have a well-regarded infielder in Alen Hanson, a tall righty who posted 13.3 K/9 in Tyler Glasnow, and two 2013 first-round picks who had good debuts in Austin Meadows and Reese McGuire.
The Pirates' strong system may turn out to be important this winter. The Bucs' attendance has taken a huge leap forward in the past few years, from 1.6MM in 2010 to almost 2.3MM in 2013, and owner Bob Nutting recently spoke about significantly increasing the team's payroll next season. There are, however, few good free agent options at the Pirates' clearest positions of need, particularly first base. So it wouldn't be a huge shock if the Pirates were involved in some sort of blockbuster trade this offseason, trading away prospects in return for a star who can play one of the corner spots. Giancarlo Stanton or Chase Headley might make sense.
There ultimately isn't much point in trying to predict specifics. But it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the Pirates do something dramatic this offseason. Their first winning campaign since 1992 is now in the books. The atmosphere at PNC Park during the Pirates' 6-2 win over the Reds in their one-game playoff was unlike anything the Pirates (or, frankly, lots of baseball teams) have seen in decades. It's an important time for baseball in Pittsburgh, and the team has money to spend. GM Neal Huntington isn't the type to make a huge move just because he's expected to, but if the right one presents itself, well, now is the time.
Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
Despite a disappointing ending to their 2013 season, the Rangers still have a strong, though increasingly expensive, core in place, and they'll likely spend the 2013-14 offseason trying to replace or re-sign some of their many free agents.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $124.5MM through 2022
- Ian Kinsler, 2B: $62MM through 2017
- Matt Harrison, SP: $49MM through 2017
- Yu Darvish, SP: $41MM through 2017
- Adrian Beltre, 3B: $35MM through 2015
- Derek Holland, SP: $24.3MM through 2016
- Alex Rios, OF: $13.5MM through 2014
- Leonys Martin, OF: $6.5MM through 2015
- Joakim Soria, RP: $6MM through 2014
- Jason Frasor, RP: $1.75MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)
- Neftali Feliz, RP (4.064): $3MM
- Alexi Ogando, SP (3.114): $2MM
- Mitch Moreland, 1B (3.067): $2.7MM
- Craig Gentry, OF (3.084): $1.1MM
- Neal Cotts, RP (5.041): $1.5MM
- Adam Rosales, INF (4.098; non-tender candidate): $900K
- Travis Blackley, SP (3.026; non-tender candidate): $600K
Contract Options
- Lance Berkman, DH: $12MM, $1MM buyout
- Joe Nathan, RP: $9MM, $750K buyout
Free agents: Nelson Cruz, Matt Garza, A.J. Pierzynski, David Murphy, Geovany Soto, Colby Lewis
The Rangers have had five straight winning seasons and four straight with at least 90 wins, but a mood of unease surrounds the club. Despite high-profile summer trades for Matt Garza and Alex Rios, the Rangers posted a 12-16 record in September and missed the playoffs after falling to the Rays in a one-game tiebreaker. CEO Nolan Ryan recently retired after any number of reports of tension between him and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels. The Rangers dismissed bench coach Jackie Moore and first-base coach Dave Anderson after the season ended, even though manager Ron Washington wanted them to stay; Moore speculated that he was dismissed because he was close with Ryan.
Reports have suggested the 2014 Rangers will aim to have a payroll a little lower than their $125MM 2013 figure, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine them going higher. With about $89MM already committed to guaranteed contracts for Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Rios, Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison and others, plus the $10MM or so they'll have to pay arbitration-eligible players, the Rangers will have a limited amount of flexibility with which to address a variety of needs. Even with the relatively recent debuts of Jurickson Profar and Martin Perez, the Rangers' core (Kinsler, Beltre, Andrus, Darvish, Harrison, Derek Holland) is getting older and more expensive, as baseball players do, and that could force the Rangers into some tricky decisions in the coming years.
The Rangers will have Rios at one corner outfield position, and they're expected to extend a qualifying offer to Nelson Cruz, who might well fill the other. If Cruz does return, the Rangers could be mostly set in the outfield, despite the possible departure of David Murphy. In center field, Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry lack prototypical outfield power, but they make up for it with outstanding defense, and they can be platooned.
Much of the ihe infield, too, is set, unless the Rangers can find some way to relieve their logjam there. Kinsler, Andrus and Beltre are all signed to huge contracts, leaving no obvious permanent spot for Profar who, despite a somewhat underwhelming rookie season, provides the club with youth and upside it can clearly use. The obvious solution would be to move Kinsler, who is not a top defensive player, to first base or the outfield so that Profar can occupy one of the middle infield spots, but thus far the Rangers haven't done that, as Kinsler has reportedly been reluctant to switch positions.
In any case, the Rangers will look to upgrade at first base and designated hitter this offseason. Lance Berkman is unlikely to return, and Mitch Moreland may not have done enough in 2013 to justify a starting spot. Years ago, the Rangers traded Chris Davis and Justin Smoak to pursue short-term upgrades at other positions, so it's no surprise that they don't now have a clear long-term option at first base. They were connected to Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu, but he's now headed to the White Sox. A return of Mike Napoli to Texas would be the Rangers' other obvious option to upgrade first base. After that, the market is thin, and the Rangers could decide to just go with Moreland and upgrade elsewhere. At designated hitter, one possibility for the Rangers might be to re-sign Cruz, move him to DH, and acquire another outfielder — if they're willing to spend big, Shin-Soo Choo might be a possibility.
With the potential departure of A.J. Pierzynski, the Rangers will also need to address the catcher position. A run at free agent Brian McCann might make sense — the Rangers reportedly asked about McCann at the trade deadline, and McCann would add a power bat that would help the Rangers' lineup.
Darvish and Holland appear set to anchor the Texas rotation, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Perez take a step forward, giving the Rangers an excellent 1-2-3 punch. Harrison, whose 2013 season was ruined by back issues, should be healthy in time for Spring Training as well. Alexi Ogando could take the fifth spot, and Nick Tepesch will likely provide a backup plan, which means the Rangers don't necessarily need to look outside the organization for a replacement for Matt Garza, who is a free agent.
The Rangers aren't sure whether they'll exercise their $9MM 2014 option on closer Joe Nathan, although that's probably a moot point, since Nathan can void the option, a right he earned by finishing more than 55 games in 2013 and 100 between 2012 and 2013. (Tim Dierkes predicts Nathan will earn a two-year, $26MM deal as a free agent.)
Elsewhere in the bullpen, Tanner Scheppers and Robbie Ross are effective and cheap, while Neal Cotts, who enjoyed a velocity bump and an age-33 breakout season in 2013, should still be a bargain in arbitration. Texas also re-signed Jason Frasor to a one-year, $1.75MM deal shortly after the season; he posted a 2.57 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 2013. The Rangers can also hope that Neftali Feliz makes a full recovery following 2012 Tommy John surgery — he returned in September and pitched decently, and the Rangers have him getting extra work in the Dominican this winter. Joakim Soria should factor into the 2014 bullpen as well. If Nathan does not return, Scheppers, Feliz and Soria might all be options at the closer position.
Recent reports have also connected the Rangers with top-flight pitchers like David Price and Masahiro Tanaka, who might be possibilities if Texas decides to make a splash. If the Rangers can't land one of those huge names, though, they will likely focus on their offense this offseason, since most of their biggest holes are position-player spots. Exactly how they do it will depend upon whether, for example, Cruz accepts the qualifying offer he'll likely receive, and whether Nathan returns.
The most likely scenario is that Cruz will return, either by accepting the qualifying offer or reaching some other sort of deal to stay in Texas, while Nathan will depart. If the Rangers plan to have a $125MM payroll, that would leave them very little to play with on the free agent market, and the Rangers need to acquire at least a catcher with that money.
That puts the Rangers in a tough spot, and so, despite reports that the Rangers' payroll will be similar to last year's, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see them either go somewhat higher, or make a trade to free payroll. Dealing Kinsler would make sense, freeing a middle infield spot for Profar and allowing the Rangers to pursue a bat or two.
Underscoring the Rangers' current lineup quandary is the fact that, other than Profar, they don't have any young players ready to step into key roles. Profar, of course, has tremendous upside, and the Rangers' farm system has been good to them in the past several years. But that well appears to be drying, if only temporarily. The Rangers have a ton of interesting talent in the low minors, but top prospects Jorge Alfaro, Luis Sardinas, Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo aren't likely to make an impact in 2014.
The Rangers won't have the payroll flexibility they'd probably like over the next few seasons, and it will be two or three years before the next wave of really talented Rangers prospects starts to make its mark. But with a talented core in place, the Rangers are still well-positioned to contend in 2014 and 2015, at the very least. And with the Astros in rebuilding mode and the Angels and Mariners in disarray, the Rangers have been dealt a strong hand. How they play it this offseason will go a long way toward determining how far they advance in 2014.