Headlines

  • Alex Reyes To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
  • Counsell: Freddy Peralta To Miss “Significant” Time
  • Dodgers Extend Blake Treinen
  • Brewers To Place Freddy Peralta On Injured List Due To Shoulder Tightness
  • Mariners Sign Justin Upton
  • Chad Green To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • Top 50 Free Agents
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2022
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Arbitration Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Free Agent Profile: Bronson Arroyo

By Tim Dierkes | September 18, 2013 at 4:45pm CDT

Barring an injury in the next 12 days, Bronson Arroyo will be the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005 to present.  Even Dan Haren, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle can't make that claim.  Arroyo, 37 in February, came into his own after a March 2006 trade from the Red Sox to the Reds, but during that time he's never hit the open market as a free agent despite never getting a guarantee exceeding three years.

USATSI_7363051

Strengths/Pros

When you hear a pitcher praised for "taking the ball every fifth day," that doesn't mean that he literally never misses a turn in the rotation.  But that truly can be said for the rubber-armed Arroyo, as explained above.  Not only does Arroyo make all of his starts, but he's good for six-plus innings each time out.  He projects for about 205 innings this year, right around his recent annual average.  Arroyo will likely be joined by only Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, and Hiroki Kuroda as 200-inning free agent pitchers.

Arroyo doesn't just take the ball; he adds positive value.  He'll likely finish with a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his last five seasons, and it's down to 3.56 at the moment.  We recently extolled the virtues of Nolasco's walk rates, but Arroyo's is even better.  In fact, only Cliff Lee and Haren have walked fewer batters per nine innings since 2011.

We'll reference Arroyo's age as a negative in free agency, but the fact that he'll pitch at 37 next year is the reason he can expect a two-year deal at best.  Signing Arroyo lacks upside, but one or two years for him seems safer than four for Matt Garza.  As for a qualifying offer?  I doubt Arroyo gets one, as the perenially budget-conscious Reds won't want to risk paying him $14MM next year, even if he says he wants a multiyear deal.

Arroyo is also solid defensively, having picked up a Gold Glove award in 2010.

Weaknesses/Cons

It's always scary to give decent money to a guy with an 87 mile per hour fastball, with the concern that he'll lose another tick of velocity and start throwing batting practice.  He's got one of the lowest swinging-strike rates in the free agent class.  Arroyo is a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurler, and he's had multiple years where he's allowed around ten hits per nine innings.  When that happens, it results in a lot of baserunners even with a low walk rate.  On top of that, Arroyo is mostly a flyball pitcher, so he's relatively prone to the longball.

Arroyo also lacks upside; it's easier to picture Garza, Tim Lincecum, Masahiro Tanaka, or even Scott Kazmir and Phil Hughes ascending (or returning) to the heights of a front of the rotation Major League starter.

Arroyo has a history of avoiding injury, but how many 37-year-olds have reached 200 innings in recent years?  If we include Kuroda for 2013, it has happened only four times in the last five seasons: two seasons from Kuroda, and two from R.A. Dickey.

Personal

Arroyo is an accomplished musician, putting out a CD in '05 and performing in concert at various functions regularly.  He's a four-time winner of the Reds' Joe Nuxhall Good Guy Award.

Market

As the Reds' longest-tenured player, Arroyo's first choice is to stay, but it's less likely if they don't offer multiple years.  Back in January 2011, Arroyo told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald the other two teams he'd be interested in pitching for are the Rays (he resides in Florida in the offseason) and the Red Sox (his former team).  It is difficult to picture either AL team offering Arroyo a multiyear deal, however.

Expected Contract

Arroyo made it clear earlier this month he considers this his final shot at a multiyear deal.  I think there is a chance of a two-year offer, along the lines of Ryan Dempster's $26.5MM contract.  In the end I predict a two-year, $24MM contract for Arroyo.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 2 Retweet 8 Send via email0

Cincinnati Reds Free Agent Profiles Bronson Arroyo

Bidding For Alexander Guerrero “Wide Open” Again
Main
NL East Notes: Harvey, Werth, Halladay
View Comments (0)

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Alex Reyes To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

    Counsell: Freddy Peralta To Miss “Significant” Time

    Dodgers Extend Blake Treinen

    Brewers To Place Freddy Peralta On Injured List Due To Shoulder Tightness

    Mariners Sign Justin Upton

    Chad Green To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Orioles Promote Adley Rutschman

    Luis Gil To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Carter Kieboom To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Cardinals To Promote Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore; Tyler O’Neill To IL

    Max Scherzer Likely Out Six To Eight Weeks Due To Oblique Strain

    Chris Paddack Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

    Brandon Lowe Diagnosed With Stress Reaction, Shut Down For At Least Three Weeks

    DeGrom MRI Reveals “Continued Healing”; Still No Clear Timetable For Return

    Boras: Michael Conforto Not Ruling Out Late-Season Return

    Recent

    Red Sox Notes: Winckowski, Sale, Paxton

    Diamondbacks Activate Jose Herrera

    Phillies, Zach Eflin Avoid Arbitration

    Mariners Activate Kyle Lewis, Release Steven Souza

    Brewers Place Hunter Renfroe On Injured List, Select Mark Mathias

    Pirates Designate Cam Alldred For Assignment

    Yankees Place Aroldis Chapman On Injured List

    White Sox Place Luis Robert On Injured List; Lynn, Jimenez Nearing Rehab Assignments

    MLBTR Chat Transcript

    Injury Notes: Bryant, Renfroe, Lynn

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Trevor Story Rumors
    • Frankie Montas Rumors
    • Michael Conforto Rumors
    • Arbitration Tracker
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • MLB Player Chats
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List
    • Top 50 Free Agents
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2022
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version