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Marlins Outright Xzavion Curry

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The Marlins have sent right-hander Xzavion Curry through waivers unclaimed, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. He was designated for assignment earlier this week when the club claimed Ronny Henriquez off waivers. Curry has been outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville but will be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Curry, 26, was once a notable prospect in the Guardians’ system. A seventh-round pick of the Guards in 2019, he tossed 219 2/3 minor league innings over 2021 and 2022. He had a 3.28 earned run average, 28.7% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him as one of the club’s top 30 prospects going into 2022 and 2023.

He also made his MLB debut in 2022, though only made two appearances that year. He stuck in the majors in 2023 and was in a swing role for Cleveland, tossing 95 innings over nine starts and 32 relief appearances with a 4.07 ERA, 16.6% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

In 2024, he was frequently shuttled between the majors and minors. His big league work with Cleveland last year resulted in a 5.84 ERA, 13.9% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate. He also had a 6.58 ERA in 53 1/3 Triple-A innings, so the Guardians designated him for assignment in August.

The Marlins put in a claim at that time but have now passed him through waivers. Since this is his first career outright and he has less than three years of service time, he doesn’t have the right to elect free agency. He will therefore give the club a bit of extra depth without taking up a roster spot. His numbers haven’t been great over the past two years but he also hasn’t had a consistent role in that time. If the Fish get him back on track and put him back on the roster, he has another option year and less than two years of service time.

Padres Looking To Add Another Hitter

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The Padres were dormant for much of the offseason but sprang to life recently. In the past week, they’ve bolstered the pitching staff with Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart, as well as bringing Jason Heyward and Connor Joe into the position player mix. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they would still like to add one more bat, either via trade or free agency.

The Friars lost several hitters to free agency at the end of the 2024 season, with each of Kyle Higashioka, Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano and David Peralta hitting the open market. Kim was the primary shortstop last year and Profar the left fielder. Higashioka took over the catching job during the season. Solano and Peralta each became key part-time players, with the former getting into 96 games and the latter 91.

With seemingly almost no payroll space to work with this winter, the club has had to look for low-cost solutions to fill those holes. Heyward and Joe each got very modest $1MM guarantees and are likely to form a platoon in left, replacing Profar. Elias Díaz was signed a couple of weeks ago to help the catching group, with a $3.5MM guarantee that’s broken up into a $1.5MM salary and $2MM buyout on a mutual option, with that buyout not to be paid until after the season.

At shortstop, the solution was already on the roster. Xander Bogaerts had moved from short to second early in 2024 in deference to Kim, but he moved back to short late in the year when Kim hurt his shoulder. He’ll now stick at short in 2025. That will allow Jake Cronenworth to move from first to second and Luis Arráez, who got a lot of starts as the designated hitter in the second half of 2024, to be the regular first baseman. Manny Machado will be back as the regular third baseman.

Arráez isn’t an amazing defender at first, which raises the possibility of him being a regular designated hitter this year, but it seems the club isn’t viewing it that way. “Our infielder guys — with Louie, Croney, Bogey, Manny — they’re everyday guys,” manager Mike Shildt said, per Acee. “All those guys will have an opportunity to take a DH. But I don’t view Louie and Croney being like some rotation of DH. I think they’re everyday guys that’ll be on the field. Will they get opportunities to get off their feet and DH and create other opportunities to get guys on the field? Yes. But I don’t see that being anything other than those guys are everyday guys, and we expect them to go out and play really good defense and help us win games.”

With that arrangement, and Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill in the other two outfield spots, there’s no obvious designated hitter. Guys like Tirso Ornelas, Eguy Rosario and Brandon Lockridge are on the roster but fairly lacking in experience. Oscar González, Gavin Sheets, Trenton Brooks and others are in camp as non-roster invitees but they each have their flaws, which is why they had to settle for minor league deals.

In terms of the roster, it’s easy to see the Padres fitting another bat in there, pushing those depth options to the bench of Triple-A. Presumably, any addition will be made on a tight budget, like all of their other moves this winter. As mentioned, Heyward, Joe and Díaz were cheap, with the Díaz deal even being semi-backloaded via that option buyout. The same was true of their pitching additions. Hart gets a $1MM salary this year and a $500K buyout. Though Pivetta got $55MM over four years, he’ll only get a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025. Even Michael King’s $7.75MM guarantee to avoid arbitration was broken into a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and $3.75MM buyout on a mutual option.

The free agent market does still feature some bats, with Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez the most notable. Turner got a $13MM deal last offseason but is now 40 years old. Since he’s unsigned in mid-February, perhaps he’s not getting offers at that level again for 2025, despite a solid performance last year. Martinez got $12MM from the Mets last winter but with heavy deferrals and a salary of just $4.5MM. Peralta, who joined the Padres via a minor league deal in May last year, is still out there and won’t cost much. Mark Canha, Yuli Gurriel, Miguel Sanó, Anthony Rizzo, Rowdy Tellez and others are also on the market with limited earning power.

On the trade market, Spencer Torkelson doesn’t have an amazing path to playing time in Detroit and is still in his pre-arbitration years. LaMonte Wade Jr. is only making $5MM this year and could perhaps be pried away from the Giants, though the intra-divisional trade is always tougher to pull off. Starling Marte is going to make $19.5MM this year but the Mets are reportedly willing to pay down his salary in order to facilitate a deal.

Clayton Kershaw Expects To Go On 60-Day IL To Start Season

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The Dodgers officially re-signed Clayton Kershaw earlier today but it seems he won’t be helping them early in the season. He tells Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic that he expects to be on the 60-day injured list to start the year, likely returning about when those 60 days are up. That suggests he’s targeting a late May return.

Kershaw’s 2025 timeline has never been clear until now. He announced in early November that he would require some surgical work on his lower left leg. Part of that was due to a bone spur in the big toe on his left foot, which sent him to the IL last year. The surgeries would also address a ruptured plantar plate and a torn meniscus in his knee. It was never expressly laid out when Kershaw expected to return, though there’s now at least a vague target.

Players can be placed on the 60-day IL once pitchers and catchers report to spring training, so several players are already there, including Dodgers like Gavin Stone and River Ryan. Kershaw could follow them there but the 60-day count doesn’t begin until Opening Day. IL transactions can be backdated three days, so teams will only put guys on the 60-day if they don’t expect them to be healthy in the first 57 days of the season.

The Dodgers start the schedule a little bit earlier than most teams, as they and the Cubs are facing off in the Tokyo Series this year. Two regular season games between those teams will take place on March 18th and 19th, while the 28 other teams will play their first regular season game March 27.

The update from Kershaw makes the rotation picture a little less crowded in the short term. As of right now, the Dodgers project to have a six-man starting staff consisting of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. They will start the season with Shohei Ohtani acting as the designated hitter but not pitching. He didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and also required surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in the fall. He is expected to be back on the mound in May and it seems Kershaw’s timeline is similar.

It’s theoretically possible the Dodgers will have too many rotation options at times this summer. Once Kershaw and Ohtani are back in the mix, they could have eight viable candidates for six spots. Sasaki and Gonsolin are the only two who can be optioned to the minors. It seems highly unlikely Sasaki will be sent down at any point, given that he’s already considered an ace-level talent. Gonsolin is also just 20 days away from five years of MLB service time, at which point he would have the right to refuse being optioned.

However, there are also health concerns all throughout the group, so it seems fair to wonder how often six or more of them will be healthy at any given time. May and Gonsolin missed all of 2024 recovering from surgery. Snell only pitched 104 innings last year and has only hit 130 twice in his career. Yamamoto’s first MLB season saw him spend a lot of time on the IL, only getting to 90 innings. Glasnow set a personal best last year by getting to 134. Sasaki never hit 130 innings in any of his seasons in Japan.

It’s an extreme quality-over-quantity group, so it will be interesting to see if it ever feels truly crowded. If significant injuries pile up, the club also has Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius as optionable guys on the roster who should be in the Triple-A rotation.

For Kershaw personally, he will be looking take on a sizable workload for the first time in a while. It used to be his norm to log about 230 innings in a season but he hasn’t done that since 2015 and he hasn’t hit 132 since 2019. He did get to 131 2/3 in 2023 but was clearly working with diminished stuff and required shoulder surgery in the offseason. He returned from that procedure to make seven starts in July and August of last year but then went back on the IL due to the foot issues and finished the year with just 30 innings pitched.

Missing the first few weeks of 2025 will prevent him from having a massive workload this year but he could certainly go well beyond those 30 frames if things go according to plan. As for what’s beyond that, it seems the future Hall-of-Famer isn’t making any decisions yet. He tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he plans to go year to year, as opposed to putting a firm timeline on how many more seasons he plans to play in.

Mozeliak: Nolan Arenado Likely To Be With Cardinals On Opening Day

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to members of the media today, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, saying that trade candidate Nolan Arenado is likely staying put. “I think the mindset right now is he’s likely going to be a part of our club at this point,” Mozeliak said. “I definitely feel like it’s a better chance than not” that he is the club’s Opening Day third baseman.

Given the events of recent weeks, that’s not terribly surprising. It was reported about a month ago that the club’s efforts to move Arenado had largely stalled, with the Red Sox being the best remaining landing spot, but even that fit had some problems.

The Sox are making a big investment in their infield, agreeing to a deal last night with Alex Bregman. He’s reportedly going to play second base, so he doesn’t on his own block Arenado from playing third at Fenway. However, the fit was already awkward with Rafael Devers at third. Moving Devers to first and then trading Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida were scenarios that were bandied about this winter but they always seemed somewhat of a difficult tightrope to walk.

Those scenarios are technically still possible to imagine in a vacuum but the larger team context makes it harder to see. Bregman’s deal is reportedly for $120MM over three years, a $40MM average annual value. Deferreals reportedly drop the net present value closer to $31.9MM annually but it’s still a huge chunk of the payroll. Arenado’s deal still has roughly three years and $60MM to be paid out, when factoring in deferrals and some money being picked up by the Rockies.

Boston making a huge investment in their infield just to create roster problems was already a bit tough but is even tougher now with Bregman’s contract on the books. Chris Cotillo of MassLive today estimates the odds of Boston still being in on Arenado at “about 0.0%.”

In the larger context of the Cardinals’ offseason, it’s a very surprising place for them to be. By late September of last year, before the 2024 campaign had even fully ended, reports had emerged that the Cardinals were planning a shift in direction. 2025 was to be a sort of reset year, with the club focusing less on short-term contention and more on long-term player development. As part of this shift, Mozeliak would spent the 2025 still in his POBO title while Chaim Bloom focused on overhauling the club’s player development system, but with Bloom to replace Mozeliak at season’s end.

At that point, there was plenty of speculation that the Cards would make players available if they were expensive or nearing free agency. Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley and others seemed likely to be available.

Now, several months later, they are all still on the roster. Contreras and Gray quickly signalled that they were unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses while the club surprisingly didn’t seem to have much interest in moving Fedde or Helsley.

Arenado was reportedly more willing than Gray or Contreras to consider waiving his no-trade protection, but that didn’t mean he would approve any deal. There was some reporting that Arenado had a list of six teams that he would approve a trade to, though there was also some pushback that such a firm list existed and that Arenado’s preferences were more context-dependent.

He vetoed a deal to the Astros in December but reportedly wasn’t wholly opposed to going to Houston. Rather, he had some hesitation about the club’s direction after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Rather than wait around and see if he would change his mind, the Astros took the less-complicated route of signing Christian Walker to play first base. That effectively locked Isaac Paredes, acquired in the Tucker deal, into third base and made an Arenado deal far less likely.

While Arenado may not have had an ironclad team list, it seems his parameters will have to widen for anything to get done now. “I think it would have to open up a little bit more,” Mozeliak said of Arenado’s list of acceptable teams, per Jones. “Think we’ve exhausted the others.”

Goold reported yesterday that Mozeliak had contacted five clubs that appeared to fit Arenado’s preferences, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres and Dodgers. The Astros were presumably the fifth. Goold added that the Yankees wanted the Cards to eat more of Arenado’s contract than they were willing to do. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and never seemed particularly interested in making a change there. The Padres are working under significant financial constraints. The Sox are now out after adding Bregman.

Perhaps Arenado will change his mind and consider other options, given the circumstances. His priority appears to be winning and that seems unlikely in St. Louis this year with their reset plans. Reportedly, the Royals reached out to the Cardinals this winter but were turned away since the Cards didn’t think Arenado was willing to go there. Teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays reportedly pursued Bregman and might have some willingness to pivot to Arenado, though Arenado might not be willing to play for those clubs.

If Arenado does end up staying, it will leave the Cards with some playing time puzzles to figure out. Their thinking with an Arenado trade was to save some money but also to give more playing time to guys with uncertain futures. Nolan Gorman was going to get regular run at third base as he looks to bounce back from a tough season in 2024. With Arenado still around, he could get pushed back to second base. That could block Thomas Saggese and/or nudge Brendan Donovan into a utility role where he spends more time in the outfield, perhaps taking playing time from guys like Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and others.

Perhaps there are some twists and turns up ahead but it’s been a very surprising winter for the Cardinals thus far, as an offseason that once likely to involve significant changes has resulted in very few. They haven’t yet signed a free agent to a major league deal and their only trade has been to acquire depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins.

Angels Sign Shaun Anderson To Minor League Deal

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The Angels have signed right-hander Shaun Anderson to a minor league deal, according to his MLB.com transactions tracker. The Wasserman client has been assigned to Triple-A Salt Lake but will presumably be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Anderson, 30, is a swingman who made six big league appearances last year between the Rangers and Marlins. He allowed 15 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings, leading to an unsightly 8.27 earned run average. That’s a tiny sample and seems to have been thrown out of shape by a .443 batting average on balls in play and 53.5% strand rate, which were both on the unlucky side. His 4.70 FIP and 4.59 SIERA were far more normal.

His work in Triple-A last year was greater in terms of quality and quantity. He tossed 63 innings over 19 appearances, including nine starts, with an even ERA of 3.00. His 23.4% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate were both strong numbers.

That’s been a pattern for Anderson for a while, as he has generally posted some intriguing numbers on the farm that haven’t translated to the big leagues. Including last year’s small sample of work, he has now thrown 152 big league innings for a 6.10 ERA, with a 16.5% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. But over the past four years, he has logged 226 1/3 minor league innings with a 3.62 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate.

The Angels have a lot of rotation options but not a lot of certainty. Yusei Kikuchi will be locked into one spot. Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Anderson seem likely to serve as veteran innings eaters. José Soriano had a good year in 2024 but has a long track record of injuries. Reid Detmers has shown flashes of potential but is coming off a rough year. Guys like Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Chase Silseth and Jack Kochanowicz have some intrigue but limited experience.

The Halos signed Dakota Hudson earlier this offseason for some veteran non-roster depth and now Anderson joins him in that department. Given that Anderson has long relief experience as well, that’s another possible path for him. If he gets up to the big leagues at any point, he’ll face a challenge in hanging onto it since he is out of options.

Daz Cameron Accepts Outright Assignment With Orioles

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The Orioles announced that outfielder Daz Cameron, whom they designated for assignment last week, has passed through outright waivers unclaimed. He had the right to elect free agency but has accepted the outright assignment and will be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Cameron, 28, has never played in a game for the Orioles. He was with the Athletics in 2024 but was flipped to Baltimore for cash considerations at the end of October. For a while, Cameron projected as a bench outfielder but the O’s bolstered the group this offseason by signing Tyler O’Neill, Ramón Laureano and Dylan Carlson. Those moves nudged Cameron off the roster and onto the waiver wire.

Players have the right to reject an outright assignment and head to free agency if they have a previous career outright or three years of service time. Cameron was outrighted by the Orioles in the 2022-23 offseason after Baltimore claimed him off waivers from the Tigers. He went on to spend the 2023 season in the minors with the Orioles, becoming a free agent afterwards and signing a minor league deal with the A’s. That gave him the right to elect free agency with this outright but it seems he’ll stick with the O’s and try to earn his way back onto the roster.

Between the Tigers and A’s, Cameron has taken 430 trips to the plate at the major league level with a tepid .201/.263/.330 line. However, he has strong sprint speed and has stolen 14 bases without being caught. Over the past four years, he has hit .265/.347/.449 for a 105 wRC+ in 1,236 minor league plate appearances, so he’s perhaps capable of more than he has shown in his big league career so far.

The Orioles project to have an outfield alignment of Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser and O’Neill most of the time, with Heston Kjerstad, Ryan O’Hearn and Laureano also in the mix. Jorge Mateo will also factor in eventually though he seems likely to start the season on the injured list. Cameron will join players like Nick Gordon and Franklin Barreto in the non-roster depth group. If he gets back to the big leagues at any point, he is out of options but has less than two years of service time.

Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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Feb. 13: The Dodgers made it official today, announcing that they have signed Kershaw. Right-hander River Ryan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move.

Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.

In all, that $7.5MM base can more than double to $16MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season.

Feb. 11: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw have agreed to terms on a new deal, reports Alden González of ESPN. It was previously relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times that the lefty is in camp with the club. The deal isn’t official yet because the Excel Sports Management client still has to undergo a physical. The details of the new agreement aren’t yet publicly known. The Dodgers will need to open a 40-man spot but have several candidates to be moved to the 60-day injured list.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise at all. The future Hall-of-Famer has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point. He has gone into free agency multiple times and always re-signed. There has occasionally been some thought that he would like to join the Rangers, since he’s from the Dallas area, but that’s never come to fruition. On the heels of the Dodgers winning the most recent World Series, he declared himself a “Dodger for life.”

Kershaw, 37 in March, did turn down a $10MM player option for the 2025 season. Still, that seemed to be more of a formality, based on the strong relationship between him and the franchise. Even though he walked away from that money, the industry expectation has been that the two sides would reunite on some kind of new deal. As recently has a few weeks ago, it was reported that the two sides were interested in a reunion.

His current health situation is unknown. In early November, when he made the “Dodger for life” comment, Kershaw also relayed some details of upcoming surgeries. He told reporters at that time that he was to have work done on both his left toe and his left knee. He had dealt with bone spurs in his big toe during the season and also revealed after the campaign that he had a torn meniscus and a ruptured plantar plate that needed to be addressed.

It’s possible that his new deal will come with various incentives based on his output, as was the case the last time he re-signed with the Dodgers. He had surgery going into last winter and wasn’t expected to come back until midway through the 2024 schedule. He signed a deal with a modest $10MM guarantee over 2024 and 2025, with the latter year being a player option. Based on his 2024 appearances, he could earn an extra $7.5MM in 2024, as well as potentially bumping the $5MM option as high as $20MM. There were also incentives based on his 2025 appearances that could have allowed him to earn as much as $25MM on the year.

Kershaw only ended up throwing 30 innings over seven starts last year, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine. He started the season on the IL while still recovering from that shoulder surgery, getting reinstated in late July. But he was back on the IL by the end of August due to his toe issues and finished the season there. That wasn’t a huge showing but it was enough to get the base of his player option up to $10MM. Though he went back under the knife for his lower body injuries, he still felt comfortable enough turning that down, though he and the club will surely figure out some new arrangement that works for both.

Though it’s not a surprise to see Kershaw back with the club, there’s still some mystery about what’s next. As mentioned, it’s unclear if he’s fully healthy now or if he’s still working his way back from his most recent procedure.

On paper, the Dodgers have a robust collection of rotation options. They currently have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow taking up four spots. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be in the mix as well. Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to be ready by Opening Day but could be back on the hill in May.

The club seems likely to run a six-man rotation. That’s partially due to Sasaki making the move from Japan, where starting pitchers only throw once a week. On top of that, basically everyone else in their pile of starters has workload concerns. Snell only got to 104 innings last year and has only twice gone beyond 130. Yamamoto spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL and only got to 90 frames. Glasnow got to 134, which was a career high for him. May, Gonsolin and Ohtani were recovering from respective surgeries, with no one of that trio pitching last year.

Throw Kershaw into the mix and its eight starters for six spots, before even mentioning pitchers like Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius, who all have options and are likely to be in the minors as depth.

Given all the health question marks throughout the group, it’s unlikely to expect everyone to be healthy for the entire season, but there may be times where players get squeezed. Moving to the bullpen isn’t easy either, as the club is a bit squeezed there as well. With a six-man rotation, the club can only have seven relievers, given the 13-pitcher roster limit. Ohtani counts as a two-way player and will eventually allow them to have 14 pitchers, but he won’t be pitching to start the year.

The bullpen chart currently includes Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. No one in that group can be optioned except for Vesia, who had a 1.76 ERA last year. The bullpen is tight enough that Ryan Brasier recently got designated for assignment and flipped to the Cubs.

Time will tell how the Dodgers balance the juggling act, though the pressure on the 40-man roster is about to ease. Now that they have opened camp, they are allowed to transfer players to the 60-day injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are likely bound for the IL soon, with each recovering from a significant surgery. The Dodgers will need a roster spot for Kershaw once this becomes official, but that will still leave them with three roster spots to play with.

Financially, RosterResource has the Dodgers at a $383MM payroll and $386MM competitive balance tax figure. Those are both franchise records and tops in the league by wide margins, but the club seems to have few limits right now. They have international star power from Ohtani and various other players on the roster, with a decade-plus run of postseason appearances, in addition to being reigning world champions. The cash flow situation seems to be incredibly healthy, with the ownership group willing to pump a lot of that money back into the roster.

Trevor Rogers, Jorge Mateo Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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With camps opening for spring training, it’s common for clubs to provide updates on player health or the lack thereof. Orioles general manager Mike Elias today informed members of the media, including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that both left-hander Trevor Rogers and infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo are unlikely to be healthy by Opening Day.

The news on Mateo isn’t particularly surprising, as he underwent significant left elbow surgery in August. That was to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and add an internal brace, as well as repairing the flexor tendon. That procedure was on his non-throwing arm but the expected recovery timeline was still going to take a few months. The O’s have said at times that Mateo could perhaps be ready for a full season in 2025 but it now seems that his recovery will extend at least partway into the season.

The news on Rogers comes out of nowhere, as he didn’t spend any time on the injured list last year. Per Elias, he suffered a right kneecap subluxation in January. It’s unclear exactly how it happened but Rogers himself told Kubatko that it dislocated for about a second. Though the lefty downplayed the severity and said he’s already playing catch, he is apparently weeks behind schedule.

It appears it won’t be a devastating blow but it’s another frustrating development in what has already been a difficult Baltimore tenure for the southpaw. Acquired from the Marlins at the deadline last year, Rogers was torched for 15 earned runs in 19 innings over his first four starts as an Oriole and got optioned to Triple-A. He then made five starts for Norfolk with a 5.65 ERA to finish the year.

Going into 2025, he was likely blocked from securing a rotation gig to start the season. On top of his poor finish in 2024, the O’s added Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals to pad out the rotation alongside Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer.

Rogers is still optionable and may have been ticketed for another stint in Norfolk to start 2025 if he were healthy. An injury to those front five starters could have opened a path for him but he would be competing with guys like Albert Suárez, Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich for the #6 spot on the depth chart.

The O’s would obviously love for Rogers to get back into his 2021 form. With the Marlins that year, he made 25 starts with a 2.64 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. But his ERA climbed to 5.47 the following year and he spent most of 2023 on the injured list. He bounced back somewhat last year, with a 4.53 ERA prior to the trade, but then had his aforementioned struggles after the swap. The club will have a bit less pitching depth to start the year, though they have other options there. For Rogers personally, he’ll be a bit delayed in heading down the comeback trail.

Mateo would ideally be on the club’s bench, providing the Orioles with depth all over. In his career, he has played every position outside of the battery and first base. He’s not a huge hitter but is a threat to steal 30 bases a year, having done so twice, and gets strong marks for his glovework at several different spots. RosterResource currently projects the club’s four-man bench to consist of catcher Gary Sánchez and infielder Ramón Urías, with Ramón Laureano and Heston Kjerstad backing up the outfield. Kjerstad is the only one in that group who can be optioned to the minors, perhaps leaving him vulnerable to getting sent to the minors once Mateo is healthy unless someone else goes on the IL.

Braves Sign Jake Marisnick To Minor League Deal

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Outfielder Jake Marisnick is in camp with the Braves as a non-roster invitee, reports Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That indicates the Equity Baseball client signed a minor league deal with the club.

Marisnick, 34 in March, signed a minor league deal with the Angels last winter. He spent the year playing in Triple-A for that club, getting into just 54 games around a few stints on the injured list. He performed well, hitting .283/.368/.551, but didn’t get called to the majors.

The veteran has an established track record at this point as a glove-first outfielder. From his 2013 debut to the present, he has logged 5,357 innings on the grass with 80 Defensive Runs Saved and 52 Outs Above Average. The latter method didn’t come into existence until 2016, so the sample size is a bit smaller. Only nine outfielders have a higher DRS tally during Marisnick’s career and all but one of them spent more time out there than him. He’s also 11th on the OAA board, again trailing only one player with a smaller sample of innings played.

However, his offensive contributions have been less consistent. He’s had a few good showings with the bat but has hit .228/.281/.385 in his career overall. That production translates to a wRC+ of 81, meaning he’s been 19% below average on the whole.

Atlanta has some question marks in its outfield. Ronald Acuña Jr. is still recovering from tearing his ACL last year and could miss about a month of the season. Until he’s back, the projected outfield consists of Michael Harris II and Jurickson Profar in two spots. A third spot could perhaps be a platoon between Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz.

Profar is coming off a monster season at the plate but has been wildly inconsistent and isn’t a great fielder. Kelenic’s production has been up-and-down, both offensively and defensively. De La Cruz is a poor defender and is coming off the worst offensive showing of his career thus far.

The club has Carlos Rodriguez and Eli White on the roster, but White is out of options and might get squeezed. Rodriguez hasn’t yet made his major league debut and has just 31 games of Triple-A experience. The club previously brought in Conner Capel for some non-roster depth and now Marisnick gives them a bit more. If a path opens up to some playing time, he’ll give Atlanta a glove-first outfield option off the bench.

Padres Reportedly Expected To Keep Dylan Cease, Michael King

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12:01pm: President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was asked about the Cease rumors today. “He’s a very big part of our club,” Preller said, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”

10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.

It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.

The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.

The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.

Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.

Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.

Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.

The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.

Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.

RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.

The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.

They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.

It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.

For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.

Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.

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