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MLBTR Podcast: Jarren Duran Rumors, Caglianone And Young Promoted, And Pitching Injuries

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Diamondbacks can’t climb in the standings, what does their deadline look like? (48:45)
  • As a thought experiment, if the Orioles were willing to listen on Gunnar Henderson, what teams would even have the pieces to pull off a trade? (54:10)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Brett Davis, Imagn Images

Astros Looking For Starting Pitching

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The Astros lost yet another rotation member to the surgeon’s table recently, with Ronel Blanco requiring Tommy John surgery. He will officially undergo that procedure this Friday, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the club is on the lookout for more starting pitching.

It shouldn’t come as a shock that Houston has this focus. They currently have six viable starting pitchers on the injured list, most of them unlikely to return anytime soon. Luis Garcia hasn’t pitched in the majors in over two years now, as he has repeatedly hit setbacks in his attempts to return from his own Tommy John surgery. Cristian Javier underwent that procedure in June of last year. Hayden Wesneski required it last month and, as mentioned, Blanco is next. In addition to all those Tommy Johns, J.P. France is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery and has an uncertain timeline.

Spencer Arrighetti is also on the IL, though he hasn’t required surgery. He suffered a right thumb fracture in a bizarre accident, getting struck by an errant ball while throwing on the field during batting practice. That means he could be able to return quicker than the guys who did require surgery, though he’s not especially close either. Manager Joe Espada said last week that the righty is now out of the cast and playing catch, per Leah Vann of chron.com. He suffered his fracture almost two months ago and will presumably need to ramp up his throwing program before going on a rehab assignment for a few weeks.

That leaves the Astros with a very top-heavy rotation in the short term. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are a fantastic one-two punch at the front but it gets flimsy behind them. Lance McCullers Jr. is back after his own two-year-plus injury odyssey and has made five starts thus far with mixed results. He is obviously talented but it’s anyone’s guess what to expect from him now after such a lengthy absence.

Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon currently have two rotation spots but they have less than 60 big league innings pitched combined. AJ Blubaugh and Brandon Walter are also inexperienced arms on the 40-man, currently on optional assignment. Jason Alexander is also on the 40-man, though he’s a 32-year-old veteran swingman. Miguel Ullola is a notable prospect but he’s not on the roster and has only 36 Triple-A innings under his belt so far.

Taken all together, it’s understandable that the front office wants to add to this group. Doing so this far in advance of the July 31st trade deadline will be a challenge. Most clubs prefer to hang onto their players until closer to the deadline to see if they can hang in the playoff race. Even those teams with pitchers to offer usually prefer to wait with the hope that the pressure of the deadline will drive up prices. To get a major deal done earlier usually comes at a premium.

Even as the deadline approaches, the Astros will probably have to walk a fine line. They have clearly been trying to avoid paying the competitive balance tax this year. While they made some notable offseason additions such as signing Christian Walker, they also moved some money around by flipping Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly to the Cubs in separate deals. RosterResource puts their CBT number at just under $236MM, which puts them about $5MM away from this year’s $241MM base threshold.

Assuming they still want to stay under that line, they will have to avoid taking on significant salary in the coming weeks. Asking another club to eat money in a deal could help them in that regard, though that usually means having to pay a higher price in terms of prospect capital. Houston’s farm system is generally considered one of the weaker ones in the sport, so that could be a tricky balancing act.

Elsewhere on the roster, infielder/outfielder Zach Dezenzo landed on the 10-day IL a few days ago due to left hand inflammation. The club told reporters today, including Rome, that Dezenzo has a capsule sprain. He will be resting for the next two weeks and will get more imaging done at that time. Even if declared healthy at that point, he will presumably need to take some time to get back into game shape, either via some live batting practice or a rehab assignment.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images.

Astros Promote Jacob Melton

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June 1: The Astros today announced Melton’s promotion to the big leagues. In corresponding moves, Dezenzo was placed on the 10-day injured list due to left hand inflammation while right-hander Ronel Blanco was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

May 31: The Astros are poised to select the contract of outfielder Jacob Melton, per a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. A corresponding move is not yet known, but Houston will need to create room on both the 40-man and active rosters in order to promote Melton.

Melton, 24, was Houston’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. He is rated as the club’s #2 prospect by MLB Pipeline and became the club’s top prospect according to Baseball America’s ranking when fellow youngster Cam Smith graduated from prospect status earlier this month. Scouts have typically viewed Melton as a roughly average offensive performer, with above average raw power and solid bat-to-ball skills that are held back by an aggressive approach at the plate that leads to poor swing decisions and struggles identifying certain offspeed pitches.

Those flaws at the plate may restrict Melton’s offensive upside, but he’s universally lauded as a solid contributor both in the field and on the basepaths. Additionally, whatever concerns scouts may have about Melton’s approach haven’t stopped him from succeeding in the minors to this point. In 17 games at the Triple-A level so far this year, Melton has hit an impressive .254/.371/.508. That’s good for a 132 wRC+ even in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. Given those solid numbers, it’s not hard to see why the Astros have decided to give their young outfielder a shot at the big league level.

The timing of Melton’s promotion is especially prudent considering Houston’s current lineup situation. The switch-hitting Victor Caratini has been the club’s only regular hitter who bats from the left side ever since Yordan Alvarez went on the injured list in late April. Meanwhile, center fielder Jake Meyers is the club’s only true outfielder on the roster at the moment; longtime second baseman Jose Altuve has begun to split time between left field, DH, and the keystone this year, while both Smith and Zach Dezenzo have become fixtures in the corner outfield mix as well despite spending the vast majority of their minor league careers at third base.

Chas McCormick was also on the roster as a true outfielder alongside Meyers, but he was placed on the injured list today due to an oblique strain and replaced by infielder Shay Whitcomb on the roster. Altuve, Smith, and Dezenzo may have been enough to handle the outfield corners even without McCormick, but Dezenzo left today’s game with what the organization referred to as “left hand discomfort” and (according to Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) is scheduled to undergo imagine tomorrow morning. With Dezenzo potentially out as well, it makes plenty of sense for Houston to get a lefty bat back into the lineup and shore up an outfield mix in desperate need of reinforcements by bringing Melton into the fold.

Ronel Blanco To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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11:03am: Astros manager Joe Espada provided some more specifics to Leah Vann of Chron.com, revealing that Blanco will undergo Tommy John surgery.

10:28am: Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco, currently on the injured list due to elbow discomfort, will undergo season-ending surgery next week, the team announced Wednesday. Specifics on the nature of the procedure were not immediately revealed. Blanco is “anticipated to return during the 2026 season,” per the Astros, which suggests that he may not be ready for the start of next year’s spring training.

Blanco, 31, hit the injured list earlier this month with what was vaguely described as elbow discomfort. The lack of specificity is par for the course for the Astros organization when it comes to injuries, but the open-ended nature of the issue paired with GM Dana Brown stating that the Astros were “hoping for the best” as Blanco sought a second opinion created a particularly ominous air around Blanco’s status. It now appears that a worst-case scenario, or close to it, will play out.

Subtracting Blanco from an already thin rotation mix puts Houston in a perilous position. Their one-two punch of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez is among the best rotation duos in the sport. Everything thereafter gets murky.

Rookies Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon are both in the rotation at present, as is Lance McCullers Jr., who just returned from an injury absence of more than two years. Gusto (4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 innings) and Gordon (5.52 ERA in 14 2/3 innings) are not top-shelf prospects but rather 26-year-olds who profile as back-end starters or perhaps multi-inning relievers. McCullers has yet to complete five innings in an outing but has been solid in three of his four abbreviated starts. In the other, however, he was decimated for seven earned runs in just one-third of an inning versus the Reds.

Houston’s other rotation options are more or less all on the injured list. Spencer Arrighetti is still out with a broken thumb. Hayden Wesneski recently underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his 2025 season. Luis Garcia has been out more than two years due to Tommy John surgery and a series of setbacks. Cristian Javier had Tommy John surgery last June. J.P. France underwent shoulder surgery last July.

The ’Stros do have a few more rotation candidates in Triple-A, but there’s minimal experience among the group. Righty AJ Blubaugh made one four-inning start in his MLB debut earlier this season. He has a 6.05 ERA in Triple-A. Lefty Brandon Walter, a former prospect in the Red Sox organization, signed a minor league deal last summer and was selected to the big league roster shortly after the announcement that Wesneski’s season is over. He’s pitched quite well in Triple-A this year (1.94 ERA) but is in his first season back from a shoulder injury that cost him all of 2024 and has a 5.14 ERA in 28 career MLB innings. Journeyman righty Jason Alexander was recently claimed off waivers. Prospect Miguel Ullola is not yet on the 40-man roster; he has a solid 3.86 ERA and a huge 32.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A but also a grim 15.4% walk rate.

Suffice it to say, the Astros aren’t exactly plentiful in reliable rotation options at the moment. An injury to either Brown or Valdez would be a dagger to a reeling staff that’s been buoyed by a surprisingly excellent bullpen. The lack of innings from the rotation will very likely put further strain on that relief corps, however, making it all the more imperative that Houston find some rotation reinforcements, whether that help comes from within or via trade.

Of course, trading for help is far easier said than done. Even obvious sellers tend to avoid moving veteran pieces at this stage of the season, instead preferring to wait until there are more bidders and a fuller grasp of the potential market later in the summer. On top of that, the Astros will face some financial limitations if they look to bring in anyone from outside the organization. Owner Jim Crane didn’t expressly state it on the record, but multiple reports and nearly all of the Astros’ offseason actions made clear that Crane is intent on remaining south of the $241MM luxury tax threshold in 2025. An exception might have been made had Alex Bregman taken the team’s reported six-year offer, but that seems to have been the only scenario in which Crane was content to pay the tax. At the moment, RosterResource projects the Astros with about $235.5MM of luxury considerations.

For the time being, Houston will likely attempt to tread water with in-house options. Arrighetti could be back in around a month if all goes well; Espada told reporters last week that he was set for a follow-up visit to check in on his thumb’s progress and could begin playing catch a few days after the fact. He’ll need to progress through flat ground throwing, mound sessions, live batting practice and multiple minor league rehab starts before rejoining the team, however. No one else among Houston’s contingent of injured starters will be back anytime soon.

Barring a surprising acquisition, the Astros will be forced to continue operating with 60% of their Opening Day rotation on the shelf. The silver lining is that the 40% that remains healthy — Brown and Valdez — are far and away the team’s two best starters. If they can stay afloat in the standings, it’s all but a given that the Astros will target rotation help on the summer trade market. They’re currently in second place in the AL West, sitting a game and a half behind the division-leading Mariners. Houston and Cleveland are currently tied for the final two Wild Card spots in the American League, but six teams (Royals, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels) are within four games in that tightly contested race.

Ronel Blanco To Go On IL For Elbow Soreness

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May 22: General manager Dana Brown appeared on Sports Talk 790’s Sean Salisbury Show this morning and did not give an immediate update but said the team would provide more information later today (presumably, when meeting with the entire Houston beat). Brown noted that the team has hoping for the best, but the suggestion of a formal announcement at a scheduled time does little to quell concerns about an already ominous injury scenario.

Unsurprisingly, manager Joe Espada said that Blanco will be placed on the injured list, per Leah Vann of Chron.com. Blanco will be getting a second opinion about his elbow. Espada added that Gordon will be recalled as the corresponding move, per Vann.

May 21: The Astros are in Tampa but right-hander Ronel Blanco isn’t with them. Manager Joe Espada tells Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle that the righty reported elbow soreness two days ago and flew back to Houston to be evaluated.

At this point, there’s not too much information to go on. Blanco started on Saturday and threw 92 pitches over six innings against the Rangers. His fastball velocity held fairly steady compared to his previous start but has been trending down in recent weeks. His fastball velo crept up over his first five starts of the season, topping out at 94.3 miles per hour on April 22nd. But it dropped to 93.5 mph in the start after that, then 93.4, 93.0 and 92.8 mph in his most recent outings.

There are many things that could explain such a trend and the current testing will surely provide more information. Until there’s more clarity, it’s too soon for a full-blown panic, but it’s a worrisome situation. It’s always a bit alarming when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured, of course. For the Astros, it’s especially notable, given their larger rotation picture.

Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and J.P. France are all on the 60-day injured list, recovering from major surgeries in previous seasons. Just three days ago, it was reported that Hayden Wesneski would require Tommy John surgery. He has already joined those other three hurlers on the 60-day IL. Houston also has Spencer Arrighetti on the 15-day IL, as he fractured a thumb in early April.

Around those injuries, they are down to a rotation core of Blanco, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers only just returned from his own lengthy injury layoff, making three starts so far this month, his first big league action since 2022. The Astros have recently turned to Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter to make spot starts as they are trying to trudge through a 17-game stretch with no off days.

If Blanco needs to miss some time, that would further subtract from a group that already feels thin. The righty has emerged as a key piece of the rotation in recent years. He logged 167 1/3 innings last season with a 2.80 earned run average. His 10.1% walk rate was a bit high but he struck out 24.6% of batters faced.

There was a bit of luck in that thanks to a .220 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, which is why his 4.15 FIP and 4.17 SIERA were a bit skeptical of that ERA. This year, his ERA has indeed normalized to 4.10, even with his strikeout and walk rates holding fairly steady. Even if Blanco’s true talent is an ERA just above 4.00, that’s a decent starter and not one a club wants to lose, especially when they are already so snakebit.

The Astros still have five more games until their next day off. Brown is going today. Per Kawahara, the Astros plan to have McCullers, Gusto and Valdez take the next three with Sunday’s starter to be determined. It seems fair to assume Blanco won’t be an option for that Sunday game.

Gordon and Walter were both just optioned to the minors in recent days. An optional assignment for a pitcher comes with a 15-day minimum unless they are being recalled as the corresponding move for a pitcher going on the IL. AJ Blubaugh is also on the 40-man and is pitching in Triple-A. Jason Alexander was just claimed off waivers from the Athletics three days ago and he could factor in. Guys like Tyler Ivey and Miguel Ullola are also pitching in Triple-A but not on the 40-man.

Beyond this weekend, the Astros will perhaps have to come up with a long-term rotation plan that doesn’t involve Blanco. Valdez and Brown give them a strong one-two punch but there would be plenty of uncertainty beyond that. McCullers is still a wild card after missing two full seasons and the Astros may need to cobble together something for two rotation spots behind him.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

AL West Notes: Blanco, Scherzer, Soriano

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The Astros have been using a six-man rotation for the last couple of weeks, in order to both ease Justin Verlander’s return from the 15-day injured list and to help manage the innings of Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti.  With the team preparing to move back to the traditional five-man staff, GM Dana Brown said on his weekend radio show (hat tip to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that Blanco will probably be the pitcher moved into relief work.  The right-hander had a 4.98 ERA in his last seven starts and 34 1/3 prior to today’s start, when he looked sharp in tossing five shutout innings in the Astros’ 7-2 win over the Royals.

Blanco’s unexpected emergence has been a revelation for a Houston team hit hard by rotation injuries earlier this season.  He threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays in his very first start of 2024, setting the tone for a year that has seen him post a 3.03 ERA over 148 1/3 innings.  The concern is that Blanco has already topped his previous high of 125 1/3 innings across the majors and minors in 2023, and Houston naturally wants to keep him fresh for the playoffs.  The Astros’ rotation has been so dominant in recent weeks that they can afford to lose Blanco’s production, and there’s plenty of upside to using Blanco as a bullpen weapon down the stretch and into October.

More items from around the AL West….

  • It has been over a month since Max Scherzer last pitched, as he was dealing with right shoulder fatigue and then had a Double-A rehab start on August 23 canceled for unspecified reasons.  Scherzer discussed the situation with MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry and other reporters this weekend, saying he was hampered by a nerve problem in his triceps area, but it wasn’t actual nerve damage, as tests revealed.  A change to Scherzer’s throwing motion might’ve “solved this,” as “there was something mechanically going on with my elbow and elbow retraction that was making that radial nerve of my tricep get irritated,” Scherzer said.  “Yesterday, I got on the mound to do a full bullpen and no issue….Structurally, I’m fine.  Strength, I’m fine.  I don’t have an injury here.  This was just a nerve irritation.”  Scherzer is now hopeful that he’ll be able to properly resume his rehab program within the week, and he believes he’ll return to the Rangers rotation before the season is over.
  • Jose Soriano was placed on the 15-day injured list on August 17, but he won’t be activated when first eligible.  It isn’t yet clear if Soriano will return at all in 2024, as Angels GM Perry Minasian told the media (including MLB.com) that the team is considering shutting Soriano down.  The right-hander was sent to the IL due to arm fatigue, which isn’t unexpected given that Soriano has thrown a career-high 113 innings this season.  His previous high was 82 1/3 innings in the minors in 2019, before two separate Tommy John surgeries put Soriano on the shelf for almost three full years.  He made his big league debut as a reliever in 2023 and moved into the rotation this season, posting a very respectable 3.42 ERA across his 113 frames.  With some solid results already in the books, the Angels might opt to just let Soriano get a head start on his 2025 preparations rather than ramp him back up for another outing or two this season.

Ronel Blanco Given 10-Game Suspension After Foreign Substance Check

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May 15: As expected, MLB has announced that Blanco has been given a ten-game suspension and an undisclosed fine. Blanco no longer plans to appeal the suspension, GM Dana Brown told reporters (via Rome). He’ll begin serving the ban tonight.

May 14: Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco was ejected from this evening’s start against the A’s following a foreign substance inspection. Umpires confiscated Blanco’s glove when he came out for the fourth inning. Tayler Scott entered in relief.

It’s almost certain that the Astros will be without Blanco for the next week and a half. Players thrown out of a game for foreign substance usage are subject to an automatic 10-game suspension. MLB has yet to announce that in Blanco’s case but seems likely to do so tomorrow. Teams are not permitted to replace a player who is banned for an on-field rules violation. Assuming Blanco is suspended, the Astros will need to play with a 25-man roster for 10 games. Blanco told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Athletic) that he plans to appeal if MLB imposes a suspension.

Blanco has been Houston’s best pitcher this year. He earned the fifth starter job late in camp and no-hit the Blue Jays in his season debut. The 30-year-old has followed up with another six strong outings. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start. Blanco pulled within one out of a quality start in all seven of his appearances until tonight. He was through another three scoreless frames against Oakland, bringing his season ERA to 2.09 over 47 1/3 frames.

While Blanco’s pedestrian strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s likelier to pitch like a mid-rotation arm moving forward, he has been a massive boost to an otherwise rough starting staff. Aside from Blanco, Hunter Brown and rookie Spencer Arrighetti are the only Houston pitchers who have made more than five starts. Brown and Arrighetti each have an ERA north of 7.00. That’s also true of J.P. France, who was optioned in late April and subsequently suffered a shoulder injury.

The Astros have welcomed Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier back from the injured list over the past few weeks. Manager Joe Espada said last night that the Astros were going to run a six-man rotation of Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Blanco, Brown and Arrighetti for the time being (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). That’s designed to manage the staff’s workloads as they navigate a stretch with only one day off until June 6. A likely suspension for Blanco could put that plan on hiatus for a couple weeks.

Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

Ronel Blanco To Begin Season In Astros’ Rotation

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Right-hander Ronel Blanco will start the 2024 season in the Astros’ rotation, manager Joe Espada announced to the team’s beat writers last night (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Blanco got the news after celebrating the birth of his daughter Tuesday and going on to fan 10 hitters in his final start of spring training — not a bad way to close out camp.

The final couple spots in Houston’s rotation have been up in the air throughout spring training due to injuries up and down the staff. The ’Stros entered camp knowing that Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery) would start the year on the shelf. But since camp began, they’ve seen Justin Verlander slowed by shoulder discomfort, Jose Urquidy sustain a forearm strain and righty Shawn Dubin stalled by shoulder troubles of his own. That trio will join McCullers and Garcia on the injured list to begin the season. Right-hander J.P. France has also battled through shoulder problems, but he’s recovered to the point where he’ll now join Blanco in the rotation to begin the year.

Blanco, 30, didn’t even make his major league debut until his age-28 season in 2022 and only tossed 6 1/3 frames that year. He logged 52 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with the Astros in 2023, starting seven games and making another 10 relief appearances. Command woes (12.4% walk rate) and extreme susceptibility to home runs (2.08 HR/9) worked against Blanco in 2023, but neither has been an issue through his small sample of spring innings. Blanco was unscored upon in 15 2/3 frames during Cactus League play, striking out 32.7% of his opponents against a tidy 7.3% walk rate.

It’s a small sample that’s come against opposition that hasn’t entirely consisted of MLB hitters, but it’s nevertheless an encouraging trend. Blanco walked 12.6% of his opponents even in Triple-A last season, so any strides in that department are most welcome. He’ll need to demonstrate that his improved command is sustainable over a larger sample against more advanced competition, but there’s little denying that he’s earned this opportunity — outperforming alternative rotation options like swingman Brandon Bielak or non-roster prospect Spencer Arrighetti.

The Astros don’t seem to be anticipating a lengthy absence for Verlander, and if he indeed is able to return before long, that’ll create an interesting decision on whether Blanco or France retains his rotation spot. France had the stronger overall showing in 2023, emerging as an unexpectedly vital contributor who tossed 136 1/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball. But France also wilted substantially after a hot start to the season; from Aug. 1 through season’s end, he was torched for 5.84 ERA in 44 2/3 innings. Much of that damage came in a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, but France was increasingly prone to walks and hard contact in the season’s final two months, even when setting aside that outlier shellacking against Boston.

The Astros will send lefty Framber Valdez to the mound for tomorrow’s Opening Day start. For the time being, he’ll be followed by Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Blanco and France. Time will tell when or whether the Astros need to make a decision on the back end of the staff. Additional injuries could further cement Blanco and/or France among the group. In all likelihood, both France and Blanco will make their fair share of starts in 2024. Both have minor league options remaining — two for France, one for Blanco — and injuries/spot starts will necessitate utilizing far more than just five or even six starters. But at least early in the season, Blanco will get the chance to make a strong impression and show that he’s deserving of a long-term spot in a Houston rotation that has been continually dogged by injuries over the past couple years. Blanco has less than one year of big league service and can be controlled all the way through the 2029 season.

Astros, Rangers Announce ALCS Rosters

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Game 1 of the AL Championship Series is scheduled for this evening, with the Rangers taking on the Astros in Houston at 7:15pm CT. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA) will take the mound for the Astros opposite southpaw Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA). Both clubs have announced their 26-man rosters for the upcoming series.

The most noteworthy inclusions on these rosters are Texas right-handers Max Scherzer and Jon Gray, both of whom were seen as possibilities for the ALCS but not guaranteed due to health issues. Scherzer has been working his way back from a teres major strain since mid-September, while Jon Gray has been on the shelf in recent weeks with forearm tightness. Scherzer is expected to join a starting group for the Rangers that already contains Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi, with some combination of Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning rounding out the group.

Gray, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen as a potential multi-inning option alongside Martin Perez. Departing the roster in deference to the two veterans are lefty Brock Burke, who allowed two runs on one hit and one walk while recording just one out during the ALDS, and Matt Bush, who has not made an appearance during the postseason this year but was also on the club’s ALDS roster.

Meanwhile, Houston’s roster features less intrigue. Right-hander Kendall Graveman was held off the roster due to ongoing shoulder troubles, as previously expected. The only change from the club’s ALDS roster is the addition of Ronel Blanco, who posted a 4.50 ERA and 5.99 FIP in 17 starts for the Astros this season and gives the club an additional multi-inning option out of the bullpen. He’ll take the roster spot of outfielder Jake Meyers, who did not appear during the ALDS against the Twins.

The rosters…

Astros

Rangers

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