Giants Extend Hunter Pence
SUNDAY: The Giants officially announced the extension, which, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, will pay Pence $16MM in 2014 and $18.5MM in each of the remaining four years with no signing bonus.
SATURDAY: The Giants have signed Hunter Pence to a five-year extension, reports John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). San Francisco has guaranteed $90MM and granted a no-trade clause to keep its right fielder from reaching free agency, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman reports, confirming his earlier tweet. Pence is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.
The 30-year-old Pence was set to hit the market as one of the top available free agents, but will instead stay in San Francisco for the foreseeable future. With just two games left to play, Pence sports a .282/.339/.481 line to go with 26 long balls and 22 steals. The durable Pence has yet to miss a contest this year, and has never played less than 154 games in a season since establishing himself as a full-timer. In the aggregate, he was worth a career-best 4.2 bWAR and 5.3 fWAR on the season.
With an $18MM average annual value over five years, Pence slots in between two fellow California right-fielders that recently signed up for half-decade stints. Pence's contract bests the extension signed by the Dodgers' Andre Ethier by a mil a year, but falls $5MM per year short of Josh Hamilton's free agent contract with the Angels.
Coming just one day before the end of the regular season, the Pence contract should function as an important marker on the upcoming free agent market. In particular, with Pence being taken out of the picture for $90MM, Shin-Soo Choo's case for a $100MM+ deal sounds a lot more plausible. Some questioned Scott Boras' proclamation that Choo, who has never been an All-Star, would be a nine-figure player, but you won't find many people laughing at that notion today. The deal should also help out Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who is currently ranked No. 2 on Tim Dierkes' power rankings for 2014 free agents.
For his career, Pence owns a .285/.339/.475 slash line over the course of seven seasons with the Astros, Phillies, and Giants.
Zach Links and Edward Creech contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Close To Extending Pence
12:31pm: The Giants have agreed on a five-year deal with Pence, tweets John Fay of the San Francisco Chronicle.
12:27pm: The deal would cover five years, tweets FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal. In a short piece, Heyman also says that a five-year term is expected and notes that an announcement could come as soon as today.
12:18pm: The Giants are nearing a $90MM deal with Pence, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
8:44am: The Giants' extension discussions with outfielder Hunter Pence took on increasing urgency yesterday, according to reports from the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman and CSNBayArea.com's Andrew Baggarly. Pence was seen huddling in conversation with team president Larry Baer in the reporter-filled clubhouse.
Conveniently-placed ears managed to overhear some of the discussion, according to MLB.com's Chris Haft, and among the things that passed between them was the phrase "I'm sure we'll get something done." Afterward, the 30-year-old outfielder confirmed what everyone suspected and acknowledged that talks were picking up steam. “They’re about to get back to me, seriously,” said Pence. “So we’re either really close or really far away.” When asked whether that could mean a deal by the end of the weekend, Pence said: "Yeah. I’ll know shortly. We’ll just say we’re talking, I guess.”
Baer's surprisingly public negotiation maneuver came after a night that the organization had already dedicated to Pence, who received the Willie Mac award as the club's most inspirational player. To make the night extra special, the club even conned Pence into giving up his mother's phone numbers so it could secretly arrange for her to attend.
Brewers Intend To Discuss Extension With Segura
Brewers GM Doug Melvin says that he will reach out to Jean Segura's representatives over the offseason about a possible long-term extension, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). The 23-year-old shortstop, who is represented by Joe Klein, will not be eligible for arbitration until 2016.
Of course, Melvin has reportedly already once been rebuffed by Segura's team. As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently explained, however, the time is more ripe for an extension at this point. Though Segura has failed to sustain his torrid start to 2013, he still ended up being a 4 WAR player in his first season of full-time duty. Wilmoth opined that Segura might be worth a commitment of around $20-23MM on a five-year deal, if he sacrificed at least one year of free agency with a club option.
Jose Dariel Abreu Cleared To Sign
Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu has been declared a free agent and been cleared to sign with an MLB club, MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. The first baseman, who will be guided by Praver Shapiro, promises to become one of the most sought-after right-handed bats on the market.
As Sanchez also notes, the Giants are among the teams that have been mentioned as possible suitors, along with the Red Sox, Rangers, Mets, White Sox, Pirates, and Marlins. At just 26 years of age, Abreu could indeed appeal to a variety of teams, even those not anticipating immediate contention. It will be interesting to see how his market takes shape after his forthcoming showcases.
As Baseball America's Ben Badler has noted, however, scouts have already had ample opportunity to get a look at Abreu given his consistent presence with the Cuban national team. According to Badler, the line on Abreu is that he lacks athleticism but is a polished hitter with real power. He notes, however, that scouts have split on how Abreu's skills will play against big league pitching.
AL East Notes: Johnson, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cano
As the Rays fight to join the Red Sox in the postseason, let's take a look at the rest of the AL East:
- The Orioles will tender a contract to closer Jim Johnson, reports MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. Though Johnson has accumulated more saves than anyone in baseball over the last two seasons, the 30-year-old righty went through a rough stretch that made him look like a possible non-tender, especially given the high price he'll command in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
- Baltimore GM Dan Duquette recently had what he termed an "informal meeting" with agent Scott Boras, the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly reports. Among other O's, Boras represents two key younger Birds in catcher Matt Wieters and first baseman Chris Davis, each of whom is set to hit the open market after 2015. Though Duquette indicated that nothing significant has happened on the negotiation front, he said that working to lock up the team's "core group" was a priority that the team would work on over the winter.
- There are a lot of roster decisions facing Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, writes Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. Particularly difficult, says Kennedy, are the questions whether or not to pick up first baseman/DH Adam Lind's option and what to do with catcher J.P. Arencibia in 2014.
- The Jays' rotation, of course, was one of the team's most glaring disappointments this season. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca takes a closer look at the club's options heading into the offseason.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post provides the latest on soon-to-be free agent Robinson Cano, who Sherman says seems likely — but not certain — to stay in the Bronx. “There is a lot that money can’t buy,” Cano said. “When Mo [Mariano Rivera] was a free agent, if he went somewhere else, then what happened [Thursday] could not have happened for him. But you have to understand that this is a business. The Yankees are going to do what is best for them, and I am going to do what is best for me and my family.”
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays
In case you missed it, yesterday was a big day in the AL East. The Red Sox clinched the division, even if that had already become a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, the Rays and Orioles churned through a record twenty-one pitchers in an epic, 18-inning contest that left Tampa in the driver's seat of the Wild Card race. Here are some notes on the division:
- The Red Sox' turnaround exceeded even the team's internal expectations, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. While the Sox pegged the likeliest outcome as an 86-win campaign, with an outside shot at a low-90's figure, Boston has already notched 94 W's with seven left to go. "I think we're all in a bit of shock," said team chairman Tom Werner.
- Speier provides a detailed explanation of how the team effected its dramatic turnaround, ranging from the return to form of several regulars (especially in the rotation), development of an impressive bench (including the DFA'd Mike Carp), and improved focus and chemistry. As Speier notes, the front office "nailed one bull's-eye after another while turning over roughly a third of its roster."
- Under GM Ben Cherington, Boston has transformed its organization and with it the product on the field, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. As with the Speier piece, you'll want to read the entire article, but the most interesting bits relate to the GM's philosophies. Approaching his post with a long-term focus, humble evaluative framework, and open mind, Gammons explains how Cherington has infused solid, hard-working pieces into the organization.
- Rotation stalwart Andy Pettitte's forthcoming retirement is yet another reminder that a Yankee era is ending, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. The team faces a wide array of roster challenges heading into 2013, says Knobler, with age and injury questions around the diamond, no attractive catching options, and a meager free agent market to play in.
- Of course, given the team's unequaled spending capacity, one is always loath to count out the Bronx Bombers. Indeed, GM Brian Cashman has navigated countless hurdles this season to deliver a contender, though the team is now highly likely to miss out on the postseason for just the second time in the last nineteen years. Looking ahead, the Yanks have relatively meager overall commitments in comparison to their historical $200MM+ payroll levels: $89MM in 2014 (six players, one buy-out); $68.1MM in 2015 (three players); $69.1MM in 2016 (three players); and $26MM in 2017 (one player, one buy-out). And that is before accounting for any dollars saved via the yet-to-be-finalized Alex Rodriguez suspension. Of course, those amounts do not account for a new deal for Robinson Cano, and it is looking increasingly likely that the team's long-term commitments may deliver little in on-field production.
- The Blue Jays have long been the lone AL East team with nothing left to play for in 2013. The team's brass has already begun evaluating and planning for next year, reports Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. Addressing a reader question, Griffin says that the team has little reason to waste its energy pursuing star second baseman Robinson Cano, but could instead take advantage of salary coming off the books after 2015 to make a back-loaded offer to a free agent pitcher.
- Looking forward, Toronto has a heavily front-loaded set of salary obligations after carrying a franchise-high $119.3MM payroll on opening day this year. The Jays have the league's fourth-highest contract commitments for both 2014 ($110.5MM) and 2015 ($91.2MM), but are locked into a below-average $27.6MM in 2016. To back-load money to a free agent this offseason, however, would mean giving out at least a three- or four-year deal, and there do not appear to be many starters on the market that would warrant that kind of commitment.
Minor Moves: Justin Miller, Blaine Hardy
Let's catch up on some recent minor moves, courtesy of Baseball America's Matt Eddy:
- The Tigers inked righty Justin Miller to a minor-league deal. Miller, 26, was released by the Rangers earlier this month, and will look to continue his comeback from Tommy John surgery in the Detroit organization.
- Detroit also re-signed Blaine Hardy, who put up a 1.67 ERA over 91 2/3 innings in Double-A and Triple-A this year. Hardy will head to the Arizona Fall League, according to Bobby Nightengale and Jason Beck of MLB.com. MLBTR has also learned that the lefty is expected to get a big league invite to spring training. The 26-year-old has produced generally solid results in the upper minors over the last four years, most of them in the Royals organization, but has yet to get a call-up to the bigs. Hardy is represented by Mike Mosa.
Free Agent Faceoff: Tim Lincecum vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
For today's installment of MLBTR's Free Agent Faceoff series, we'll look at a couple of former aces, both 29-year-old righties, whose careers have followed a similar trajectory over the last few years: Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jimenez.
These guys were once expected to headline this year's free agent class. Over the 2009-10 seasons, Lincecum (11.7 fWAR) and Jimenez (12.1 fWAR) were among the ten most productive pitchers in the game. In 2011, they took a step back but were still solid: looking past their divergent ERA figures (2.74 for Lincecum; 4.68 for Jimenez), both posted fWAR tallies in the mid-3's. Last year, the wheels fell off. The two combined for just one win above replacement.
The 2013 season has seen partial resurrections for both pitchers. Certainly, neither will hit the market as an ace. But both bring high strikeout rates and durability to the table. Since 2008, neither hurler has failed to make at least thirty starts. Of course, that statistic also implies mileage: Lincecum has logged over 1400, and Jimenez just shy of 1300, career innings. But these one-time stars should generate a lot of interest in a pitching market largely bereft of top-level talent. Let's take a closer look:
At first glance, Lincecum's 2013 season looks like a marginal improvement on 2012, and in some ways it is: he is carrying just a 4.44 ERA in 190 2/3 innings, and his strikeouts are down (though so are his walks). On the other hand, Lincecum's year looks much better in the eyes of advanced metrics: his FIP (3.77), xFIP (3.57), and SIERA (3.75) are all better than his 2013 ERA as well as his 2012 marks. Broadly, Lincecum seems to have figured out how to be successful — albeit not dominant — with less overwhelming stuff. As Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com writes, Lincecum is a more mature pitcher now.
Though Lincecum's fastball velocity dipped in 2010, it took a more remarkable downturn between 2011 (92.2 MPH) and 2012 (90.4 MPH). Not coincidentally, perhaps, his offspeed offerings (slider, curve, change up) all registered negative pitch values last year. Lincecum's change, in particular, went from being his best pitch to his worst, as he was seemingly unable or unwilling to pound the zone low-and-away with the offering. He has apparently re-learned how to use his slow ball in 2013, to improved results. Though Lincecum no longer looks like a top-tier pitcher, he proved this season that he can still dial it up at times (as in his no-hitter) and, perhaps more importantly, that he should be a reliable rotation piece.
Likewise, Jimenez entered the year with real questions about whether or not he would continue to be a guy that a team felt comfortable trotting out every fifth day. As with Lincecum, he has in large part answered those questions. MLBTR's Steve Adams just profiled Jimenez, who is likely to exercise his right to void the $8MM club option that the Indians hold on him for 2014. As Adams noted, Jimenez has produced excellent results at the right time: he sports a 2.72 ERA and 2.31 K:BB ratio over his last 145 2/3 innings, and has restored his ground-ball rate to his career levels. Though advanced metrics do not quite support his cumulative 3.39 ERA on the year, neither do they undermine his usefulness: Jimenez sports a 3.62 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, and 3.88 SIERA.
Even moreso than Lincecum, Jimenez has dealt with a drastic velocity decline. His fastball, which once sat at 96, dropped to a 93.9 MPH average in 2011 and then fell off a table last year to 92.5 MPH. In reponse to his poor results in 2012, Jimenez made adjustments to his repertoire. He has continued to increase the usage of his change-up ever since his speed started to dip, and now throws it 20.2% of the time. More importantly, perhaps, Jimenez has largely abandoned his curve (3.7%) for his slider (22.3%), a big swing from his previous pitch mix. While I cannot make a full case for causation, the slider has the highest pitch value of any of Jimenez's offerings in 2013. Whatever the reason, Jimenez has restored his ability to generate swings and misses (8.8% SwStr% in 2013 vs. 7.0% in 2012), reduced his home run tendencies (0.85 vs. 1.27 HR/9), and restored his K:BB ratio to his prime levels (2.29 vs. 1.51 K:BB) while carrying a career-best 9.23 K/9.
Lincecum and Jimenez both have approximately the same age and arm mileage, and have posted similar underlying skill metrics in 2013. The Giants star has had greater highs and less-pronounced lows in his career than his counterpart in Cleveland, but in 2013 Jimenez actually increased his strikeout capabilities and outpaced Lincecum in fWAR (2.6 vs. 1.5). So, which one would you prefer your team target?
Which former ace would you prefer to sign
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TIm Lincecum 63% (4,748)
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Ubaldo Jimenez 37% (2,799)
Total votes: 7,547
Giants Notes: Miller, Pence, Lincecum, Lopez
Famed Giants broadcaster Jon Miller sat down with Howard Megdal of Sports On Earth to discuss the team's disappointing campaign. He says that the team faces a whole new ballgame now that the long-time rival Dodgers are running a massive budget. San Francisco is somewhat hampered by its $20MM+ annual stadium payments, says Miller, who notes that "the cost of a superstar bat, or a superstar pitcher, has to go to the mortgage every year."
- Miller tells Megdal that he expects the Giants will try to bring back both of their top free agents, Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum.
- San Francisco has decided that it will extend qualifying offers to both Pence and Lincecum, reports CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, with the expectation that neither will accept. Heyman reiterates that, as we learned a week back, San Francisco has decided to prioritize a long-term deal with Pence. That does not mean, he hastens to add, that the team is not interested in exploring a new contract with the popular Lincecum.
- Regarding Pence, Heyman says that the Giants "are believed to have signaled a willingness" to meet the four-year, $56MM that Nick Swisher recently received from the Indians. Heyman notes that Pence's representatives at BHSC could point to the Andre Ethier extension (five years, $85MM) or even the Jayson Werth deal (seven years, $126MM) to justify a higher asking price.
- Left-handed reliever Javier Lopez says he believes he will return to San Francisco, but knows that the team has other more pressing priorities, reports Chris Haft of MLB.com. "The front office and coaching staff are on the same page as far as my wanting to stay here," said the 36-year-old southpaw. "San Francisco is a beautiful place to play, and I love playing there. … But there are a lot of spots that need to be filled before they get to me." Lopez earned $4.25MM this year, and threw 38 2/3 innings of 1.63 ERA baseball and registering a sturdy 8.1 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He has held lefties to a .154/.211/.225 line.
Manager Notes: Weiss, Yost, Ventura, Sandberg, Johnson
With the regular season drawing to a close, let's take a look at a few managerial situations around the league:
- Walt Weiss is expected to return for a second year as the Rockies manager, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Colorado owner Dick Monfort says the club has been pleased with Weiss's growth in the role, and Weiss says he has every intention of staying on. Though Renck clarifies via Twitter that pen has not yet gone to paper, he says that a new deal is largely a formality. The Rockies, in turn, have stated through their team Twitter account that, while there is mutual interest in a return, "nothing is official as of now."
- The fate of Royals manager Ned Yost is entirely in the hands of general manager Dayton Moore, owner David Glass told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Glass added that he feels both Moore and Yost have performed their jobs well. Moore told Dutton that he won't discuss the contracts of Yost and the coaching staff until after the season.
- Though he declined a contract extension opportunity just last winter, White Sox manager Robin Ventura says he wants to keep his post for the foreseeable future, reports Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. Ventura's current deal runs through the end of next season.
- The early returns are positive on Ryne Sandberg's run as interim manager of the Phillies, but he says he has yet to hear from the front office on his future, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Zolecki opines that it is a "near certainty" that the Phils will look to keep Sandberg on for next year, as he has led the team to an 18-14 mark since taking over for the fired Charlie Manuel.
- Nationals manager Davey Johnson says he would have offered to step aside if the team had not made a run to return to the fringes of the Wild Card race, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Though GM Mike Rizzo has made clear he had no intentions of dismissing the veteran from his post, Johnson explained that he would have wanted to afford bench coach Randy Knorr or third base coach Trent Jewett a chance to take an audition at the helm. Kilgore notes that Knorr seems to be the most likely internal option to take over next year.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.