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Trevor Bauer Discusses Arbitration Victory, Future Contracts

By Jeff Todd | February 14, 2019 at 10:54pm CDT

Indians righty Trevor Bauer defeated the club for the second straight year in arbitration. He chatted about his win in a fascinating interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today in which he gave rare insight into the process and looked ahead to a third-straight hearing next winter.

Bauer is a polarizing figure for a variety of reasons, but it’s hard not to appreciate his willingness to think outside the box, put beliefs into action, and open the door to aspects of the sport that typically aren’t visible to the public. In this case, Bauer explained that he observed a “really well-argued case” on both sides — until the very end, when he was on the receiving end of what he labels “a character-assassination.”

As Bauer clarified in later remarks, and as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports, his complaint was with the rebuttal portion of the proceeding conducted by MLB’s labor relations department (“LRD”). After both player and team have their chance at presenting a case — Bauer was represented by his agents at Wasserman, the club by assistant GM Matt Forman — the MLB Players Association and LRD each have a shot at presenting.

The LRD brought up Bauer’s highly publicized charity campaign from last offseason as a negative. Last winter, Bauer made some light of the arbitration system by initially seeking to file at $6,420,969.69, as he told Jeff Passan at the time, though he ultimately opted to file at a more conventional $6.5MM. However, he also embarked on what he termed “69 Days of Giving,” donating $420.69 per day to various charities recommended to him by social media followers in addition to one final donation of $69,420.69 to a charity of his own choosing.

The use of numbers “that mean something socially,” as Bauer put it, was intended to “continue[] the news cycle” and boost the effectiveness of his charitable efforts. But the episode was presented in the arbitration setting as a knock against Bauer’s value. “It kind of put a black mark on what I thought was a really well-argued case on both sides,” Bauer said. “There’s no room for that. Let’s just stick to the numbers. Let the numbers tell the story.”

Indians GM Chris Antonetti said that the team had input on the LRD presentation and did not request that this particular line of attack be removed, though it did do so with regard to other possible arguments. Bauer at least hinted at the fact that the structure of the proceeding allows teams to disclaim responsibility for negativity by leaving it for LRD to present. Regardless, both player and team ultimately expressed that they carry no ill will moving forward.

While all involved seem disinclined to carry grudges, that doesn’t mean that Bauer is looking ahead to a warm and fuzzy arbitration process this time next year. Saying that he intends to demand a salary commensurate with the annual value a top-end free agent starter would command, Bauer predicts that he’ll “set the record raise or the record salary in arbitration for a starting pitcher,” suggesting he ought to earn “$30 million plus.” Since such a payday “will never be agreed upon before a hearing,” he says, a return to the adversarial process seems inevitable.

[RELATED: MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker]

If Bauer does indeed seek to defend a number even approaching that magnitude, he will be looking to break new ground. He did exceed the expectations of MLBTR’s model — and Matt Swartz’s detailed breakdown — this time around. And the CBA language governing arbitration proceedings does hint that, in looking to “comparative baseball salaries,” players in their final season of arb eligibility are appropriately compared to free agents. (“The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group.”)

Still, he’ll be working off of the $13MM figure he earned this year, and arbitration typically works by adding raises on top of prior seasons’ salaries. Star third baseman Nolan Arenado filed at $30MM but settled for $26MM in his final season of eligibility — a record-breaking figure that nevertheless falls well shy of what he’d earn for just one season in free agency, even on a long-term commitment. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom just set a record with a year-over-year raise of $9.6MM; he now sits at $17MM in 2019 earnings and will join Bauer in his final season of arb eligibility next winter — unless, that is, he first reaches an extension.

All of the battling could be forestalled if Bauer was to agree to a long-term deal with the Indians or some hypothetical team that might trade for him. But don’t hold your breath. As Nightengale examines in another piece, Bauer also reiterated his previously stated stance that he intends to “go year-to-year” for his “entire career.”

Bauer’s comments on that subject are fascinating in their own right. As he notes, the tendency to seek lengthy and massive multi-year deals in free agency is a risk-averse strategy for a player to take, as it dumps much of the long-term risk (and year-over-year ups and downs) on the team. Hypothetically, a player could earn more by taking it one season at a time — supposing, at least, that they keep performing. As teams change their means of valuation, he says, players “have to find a way in that environment to still maximize their value.”

The 28-year-old therefore seems content not only doing battle in front of an arbitration panel next winter, but then setting out onto the open market several times in the future. “It’s still unproven how clubs feel about [the one-year approach],” Bauer explains, “but looking at the market, and studying it, I identified for myself personally that it’s the best route to go forward.” Like any good scientist, Bauer will presumably be open to reconsidering that strategy if new evidence or reasoning supports an alternative approach. Of course, even if that occurs, wavering from his current course would rob us all of a chance to gain some fascinating data points.

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Cleveland Guardians Trevor Bauer

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Agency Changes: Gurriels, Calhoun

By Jeff Todd | February 14, 2019 at 9:23pm CDT

Here are the latest agency changes from around the game. As always, you can find updated representation information in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

  • Both of the Gurriel brothers — Yuli Gurriel of the Astros and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. of the Blue Jays — have hired Magnus Sports, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). The elder Gurriel is closest to free agency, though he still has two full seasons to go on his five-year contract with the Houston organization. He’s also already 34 years of age. His little brother is still just 25 years old and cracked the bigs for the first time last year, turning in a promising initial showing with the Jays. His contract takes him through the 2023 campaign, with at least one year of arbitration eligibility remaining thereafter.
  • Meanwhile, Rangers power-hitting prospect Willie Calhoun has hired MVP Sports Group, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 24-year-old has seen brief tastes of the majors in each of the past two seasons but has yet to earn a full showcase at the game’s highest level. He’s seen as a high-end talent with the bat who still needs to iron things out defensively. It seems Calhoun will ultimately be given a shot in left field, but he’ll need to bounce back from a 2018 power outage (11 home runs in 578 total plate appearances) in order to force his way back onto the active roster.
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Houston Astros Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Lourdes Gourriel Willie Calhoun Yuli Gurriel

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Giants Interested In Yangervis Solarte

By Jeff Todd | February 14, 2019 at 6:05pm CDT

The Giants have interest in veteran infielder Yangervis Solarte, according to Alex Palovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter link).

While this connection is decidedly less splashy than another recently reported expression of interest, Solarte seems to be a readily achievable target. He is looking for a new opportunity after the Blue Jays declined a $5.5MM club option and then non-tendered him.

A 31-year-old infielder, Solarte is capable of  lining up anywhere in the infield, though he has spent most of his time at third base and second base. Solarte has played some shortstop, though he has logged fewer innings there than he has at first.

If he’s a utility piece, then, the switch-hitter is more of a bat-first option who probably shouldn’t be relied upon too heavily at shortstop. That profile arguably suits the Giants well, given that they’ll likely play Brandon Crawford nearly every day at shortstop but could stand to find complementary pieces at second and third base to go with Joe Panik and Evan Longoria.

Solarte has at times been a solid overall contributor. From 2014 through 2017, he turned in over two thousand plate appearances of .267/.327/.419 hitting with 57 home runs. Defensive metrics have graded Solarte as an average or slightly below-average performer.

Last year, though, was a rough season in all respects. Solarte topped five hundred plate appearances for the fourth time in his five MLB seasons, but slashed a meager .226/.277/.378 while receiving his lowest-ever marks defensively. No doubt a .233 batting average on balls in play reflected some poor fortune, though Statcast was not particularly enamored of his batted-ball profile, crediting him with a .284 wOBA and .299 xwOBA.

Now in search of an opportunity to bounce back, Solarte will surely be looking for the best chance to carve out a significant role. If he lands in San Francisco, it stands to reason that Solarte would battle with Pablo Sandoval and Alen Hanson for a roster spot and/or position on the depth chart.

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San Francisco Giants Yangervis Solarte

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Padres Met Recently With Manny Machado

By Jeff Todd | February 14, 2019 at 4:39pm CDT

The Padres held a meeting earlier this week with star free agent Manny Machado, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. It does not appear that an agreement is imminent, but it seems fair to say that there’s still serious interest from the San Diego organization.

While the Friars have long been connected to Machado, it has never been clear how serious the team was about pulling off a surprise blockbuster. As the club continues to look for ways to move from a rebuilding phase to contention, it has also held a recent sit-down with Bryce Harper, the other shockingly unclaimed prize of the free agent market.

[RELATED: Projecting Payrolls: San Diego Padres]

Padres GM A.J. Preller is said to have met with Machado and his wife. It is not known whether anyone else participated in the meeting. Neither is it clear what level of contract the Padres are willing to put on the table — or whether they have in fact issued a formal offer. Clearly, though, the fact that a meeting occurred at this stage of the proceedings indicates that the connection is a serious one.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Manny Machado

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Keuchel, deGrom, Severino

By Jeff Todd | February 14, 2019 at 2:01pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

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MLBTR Chats

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NL Health Notes: Wieck, Seager, Arrieta, Eickhoff

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 3:04pm CDT

Padres lefty Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer earlier this year, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. The 27-year-old hurler went under the knife not long thereafter. Fortunately, the medical prognosis appears to be good, though it’s obviously something that’ll be watched closely by doctors. Though Wieck will be building back to full strength during camp, it seems his outlook on the field also remains promising. He could return to the hill in the next few weeks, it seems, and could again present the team with a MLB option after making his debut during a promising 2018 campaign.

As we send our best wishes to Wieck for a cancer-free future, we’ll cover some other health matters from the National League …

  • President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the Dodgers are quite encouraged by the progress of shortstop Corey Seager in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter. It’s “a best-case to this point,” in fact, which certainly paints a hopeful picture. Seager went under the knife at the end of April last year, so he’s about ten weeks shy of being a full year removed from the procedure. The hope remains that Seager will be prepared for Opening Day, manager Dave Roberts indicated yesterday (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter), though it stands to reason that the club will take a cautious path before fully unleashing the young star.
  • Phillies starter Jake Arrieta underwent a meniscus procedure on his left knee about a month back, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The surgery, which addressed an injury that occurred during the offseason, does not appear to be a major concern, with Kapler saying the expectation is for Arrieta to be ready for the start of the season. Still, the hope was that the veteran righty, who’ll soon turn 33, would be at full health and focused on finding improvements after his ERA rose for the third-straight season.
  • Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding their collective breath on fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff. As Kapler explains, and Lauber tweets, Eickhoff has again experienced symptoms relating to the carpal tunnel issues that led to surgery last season. While another procedure isn’t on the table at present, it’s another suboptimal situation. The 28-year-old has shown quite a bit of talent, but is looking to bounce back after missing almost all of the 2018 campaign.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Corey Seager Jake Arrieta Jerad Eickhoff

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Cardinals May Consider Utilizing Carlos Martinez In Bullpen

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 2:15pm CDT

While he’ll unquestionably enter camp as a starter, Carlos Martinez may well end up in the bullpen, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports.

Martinez ended the 2018 season in a relief role, though that decision was driven by the practical fact that he did not have time to work fully back from a shoulder injury. Though he (rather unsurprisingly) pitched well out of the pen, the stated plan was to slide Martinez back into the rotation.

Now, with camp opening, there are signals from the Cards’ uniformed staff that Martinez could be seen internally as a late-inning relief asset. Pitching coach Mike Maddux, in particular, dropped a few winks at the possibility, saying he “liked [Martinez] out of the bullpen a lot.”

“Right now, Carlos is in the rotation, but that’s the great thing about the flexibility we have,” said Maddux. “You might be a starter in Spring Training, but you might end up in the bullpen or something like that.”

While he wasn’t quite as suggestive, skipper Mike Shildt also wasn’t shy about acknowledging the possibility of Martinez returning to the relief unit. He emphasized that Martinez is “expected to be a starter,” but in the same breath made clear that “he is a piece that could transition to the bullpen.”

“The thing we like about Carlos is the flexibility that he can bring, and his effectiveness in both roles,” Schildt also said. “So as you look at your total team and what it looks like, you always want to have the option or the availability to know that there is flexibility.”

Those comments obviously don’t represent anything approaching a clear indication that the Cardinals actually intend to bump Martinez to the pen. Still, that’s an awful lot of discussion of the possibility at the outset of camp. Both Maddux and Schildt expressed openness, if not more, to a reprisal of Martinez’s late-2018 role.

We’ll see how things turn out, but a permanent change of job titles would be a significant development. Martinez has had plenty of success as a starter and would surely have greater potential value in that role. He’s one of the highest-upside hurlers in a starting mix that has quite a lot of talent but also some real uncertainties. Martinez is also already being paid close to top dollar for a reliever, with three years and $34.5MM left on his extension. That deal’s option-year price tags ($17MM and $18MM) seem much likelier to be appealing if Martinez is working from the rotation.

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St. Louis Cardinals Carlos Martinez

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Bauer, Cole, Wood Win Arbitration Cases

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 12:52pm CDT

The players may be suffering through a winter of discontent in the free agent market, but they have now scored some notable wins in arbitration. Trevor Bauer of the Indians, Gerrit Cole of the Astros, and Alex Wood of the Reds have all been awarded the contract values they sought by their respective arbitration panels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).

Bauer will take home $13MM, a full $2MM more than the Indians had sought to pay him. Cole’s $13.5MM salary was about the same amount higher than the Astros’ $11.425MM filing figure. And Wood secures a $9.65MM payday that tops the $8.7MM the Reds defended.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Those cases break what had been a tie in arb hearings. The players already had a solid edge in the more significant cases, with Blake Treinen ($6.4MM vs. $5.6MM), Carlos Correa ($5MM vs. $4.25MM), and Tommy Pham ($4.1MM vs. $3.5MM) all coming out ahead while Kyle Barraclough ($2MM vs. $1.725MM), Michael Taylor ($3.5MM vs. $3.25MM), and Ryan Tepera ($1.8MM vs. $1.525MM) lost smaller-value contests.

In coming away with wins, all three of the starters also managed to top their projected earning power from MLBTR and Matt Swartz. Bauer ($11.6MM), Cole ($13.0MM), and Wood ($9.0MM) had projected in range of what they ultimately earned, but took shots on securing bigger paydays by making their cases to panels.

Bauer’s situation is particularly noteworthy, since he won a previous arb hearing and remains eligible for one more trip through the process after the 2019 season. This time last year, Bauer emerged with a $6.525MM salary rather than the $5.3MM the team proposed. That made him $1.225MM richer this time around as well, since his raise was dropped on top of a greater starting point. The same will hold true next year.

That serves to illustrate how important these cases can be to an individual player. But there’s also a broader market significance. Each data point that trends north can be cited by another player in the future, either in seeking a bigger arb number or in negotiating out the terms of an extension.

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Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Free Agent Market Houston Astros Newsstand Transactions Alex Wood Gerrit Cole Trevor Bauer

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Yankees Have Discussed Extension With Luis Severino

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 11:53am CDT

The Yankees have held at least some extension talks with young righty Luis Severino, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Whether a deal is likely, though, is not yet clear.

For the time being, Severino remains scheduled to participate in an arbitration hearing to determine his salary for the 2019 season. He filed at $5.25MM, with the team countering at $4.4MM. It’s not an especially high-stakes hearing, then, though setting a high mark in his Super Two year would set up Severino for greater future earnings.

It’s a different situation, then, from that which faced Aaron Nola and the Phillies before they hammered out a long-term deal today. In that case, a hefty $2.2MM spread in arb positions left significant risk on both sides. They ultimately settled for a four-year, $45MM deal that gives the team one option year.

Interestingly, the Yanks’ filing number on Severino sits just below the figure the Phillies would have defended ($4.5MM) on Nola, despite the fact that the Philadelphia hurler has a much more compelling statistical case and was in the 3+ service class. It seems the Yanks and Severino are closer to the same page as a starting point, not that it necessarily spells a greater likelihood for a long-term deal.

The Nola contract does not necessarily bear directly on Severino’s case, given the service differences, but it does represent a notable market marker. Certainly, that new deal does not break significant new ground. It’d be curious, at least, to see Severino secure a stronger deal than Nola with one season longer to go before he’s a free agent, though it’s entirely unclear what terms are being discussed at present. Gio Gonzalez (five years, $42MM, two options) still holds the high-water mark for a Super Two starter.

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New York Yankees Luis Severino

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Phillies Extend Aaron Nola

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 10:12am CDT

The Phillies have officially reached a long-term deal with star righty Aaron Nola. The contract, which forestalls an arbitration hearing and expands the team’s control rights over its best pitcher, is said to be a four-year, $45MM deal that includes a club option.

Nola, a client of Paragon Sports, will receive a $2MM signing bonus and $4MM salary for the coming season. He’ll then earn successive salaries of $8MM, $11.75MM, and $15MM. The 2023 option is valued at $16MM and includes a $4.25MM buyout. Nola’s 2022 salary and 2023 option value will reportedly each increase by $1MM for each Cy Young win he secures, by $500K for a second-place finish and by $250K for finishing third through fifth in Cy Young voting.

Ultimately, then, the Phillies can control five future seasons of Nola, including 2019, at a total outlay of just $56.75MM (or perhaps a bit more, depending on Cy Young finishes). Nola gives up two would-be free agent campaigns in the deal. He had been nearing a hearing to determine his first-year arbitration salary, with his side filing at $6.7MM and the club countering at $4.5MM.

Now 25, Nola originally came to the Phillies organization as the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft. He has rewarded the club handsomely for that selection, having already thrown 569 innings of 3.35 ERA ball at the game’s highest level while maintaining 9.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 50.9% groundball rate.

Those shiny peripherals have been there from the outset for Nola, who has been a darling of ERA estimators ever since he took a big league mound. For his career to date, Nola is credited with a 3.24 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, and 3.48 SIERA.

In a sense, then, Nola’s eye-popping 2018 season was more a continuation than a turning point. But his 212 1/3-inning effort was still clearly a coming-out party, as Nola showed he could sustain excellence over a big workload while pitching meaningful innings. His resulting 2.37 ERA would have made him a Cy Young winner in some campaigns, though he settled for a still-impressive third-place finish after Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both turned in monster seasons.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

The obvious comp for this extension is the deal reached two years ago between the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez. That agreement included more money, but a lengthier term, for another high-quality, 25-year-old hurler who was nearing a first arbitration hearing. Martinez took home a $51MM guarantee over five years, while giving the Cards successive $17MM and $18MM options with a cumulative $1MM buyout, meaning his deal would top out at seven seasons and $85MM.

Nola’s camp probably prefers his deal to Martinez’s, which set a high-water mark for arb1 pitcher extensions but did give away two additional seasons of control. Still, it’s a bit of a surprise to see that Nola did not break new ground in earnings, particularly since he secured a significant initial draft bonus in addition to already having one season of arb salary (nearly) in hand. Even if he ended up losing the hearing and suffering a major injury this spring, he’d profile as an easy 2020 tender candidate. The recent experience of Garrett Richards — who has thrown just 138 2/3 innings over the past three seasons and is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, yet earned over $20MM in his final three arb years and then signed for $15.5MM in free agency — shows that teams will pay big money to hang onto the upside of top arms. Nola’s downside was limited, even in the event of a catastrophic injury. In terms of upside scenarios, the tepid free agent market is perhaps a factor, but team squeamishness toward long-term deals did not prevent Patrick Corbin from landing six years and $140MM — due in no small part to the fact that he hit the open market at 29 years of age.

If the option is indeed picked up, Nola will stand to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. He’d certainly still have ample earning capacity at that point, though leaving two prospective free agent campaigns in the hands of the Phils unquestionably removes some of the highest-upside contract scenarios. Of course, chasing the biggest imaginable guarantee certainly isn’t the top priority for every player, and it’s not hard to see how this contract serves Nola’s own interests as well — particularly since he did deal with a worrying forearm strain not long ago.

Whatever one thinks of the deal from the player’s perspective, it seems to be an easy risk for the big-budget Phillies to take. The Martinez experience does show some of the downside risks at play, as his injuries would have tamped down his arb earnings and do cloud his future, though he’s still a talented and youthful pitcher with ample promise. Locking up Nola comes with its own risks, but loads of upside as well.

It’s notable in this case that the sides had such a wide spread in their arb filing numbers. That had set up an important hearing decision, with Nola seeking to step in not far below Dallas Keuchel’s record $7.25MM salary and the Phils defending something closer to the longstanding ceiling for first-time eligible pitchers (the 2006 Dontrelle Willis salary of $4.35MM). MLBTR projected a $6.6MM salary for Nola, though the team obviously felt comfortable with its aggressively low stance and the panel would have been forced to pick one of the two filing numbers. That left plenty of risk for Nola; the $2.2MM gap, after all, would also have been reflected in his prospective arb2 and arb3 salaries.

On the team’s side, though, the deal forecloses the greater earning situation. Had Nola landed the $6.7MM he asked for, and then turned in two more seasons in range of his career norms, he easily could have cleared $30MM in arbitration earnings and might well have done quite a bit more than that. deGrom’s other-worldly campaign scored him a record-setting $9.6MM year-over-year raise; expecting anything on that order would be foolish, of course, but that number shows the magnitude of potential earnings.

Of greater importance than controlling Nola’s arbitration earnings is the acquisition of control rights over two more seasons, his age-29 and age-30 campaigns. Had Nola hit the open market after his arb time ran out, he might well have commanded a huge and lengthy deal — with any acquiring team interested especially in capturing his remaining prime years. Doing a contract now allows the Phillies to hang onto those seasons for a relatively low price and without any need to promise Nola money well into his thirties.

Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the deal (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweeted the contract breakdown. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reported the contract’s escalator clauses.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Aaron Nola

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