Jeff Todd | MLB Trade Rumors

Angels Sign Cody Allen

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 7:10pm CDT

Jan. 22: Allen will earn $250K upon reaching both 35 and 40 games finished, Heyman tweets. He’ll receive $500K for reaching 45, 50 and 55 games finished, and he’ll also receive a $500K assignment bonus in the event that he is traded.

Jan. 20: The deal is official, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The incentives are for $2MM, not $2.5MM, Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group reports.

Jan. 18: Allen will be guaranteed $8.5MM and can earn another $2.5MM based on his number of games finished, Rosenthal tweets. It’s a straight one-year deal with no options, which will allow Allen to re-enter the market next offseason — hopefully on the heels of a rebound campaign. The signing is still pending a physical.

Jan. 17: The Angels have reportedly secured a one-year deal with veteran reliever Cody Allen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) first indicated that something may be in place, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan and Alden Gonzalez (Twitter links) reported that terms had indeed been agreed to.

The Meister Sports Management client will need to pass a physical before the deal is official. If and when that comes to pass, it seems he’ll earn something in the realm of $9MM, though that’s not fully clear. Incentive pay could also be a feature, though that too has yet to be reported. Neither is it yet known whether the pact includes an option, though Passan suggests that’s also a possibility.

Notably, Rosenthal indicates that Allen was specifically seeking an opportunity to function as a closer — a role he has a rather clear path to in Anaheim. By prioritizing the opportunity over the total length and guarantee, he could hope to bounce back and reenter the market next winter in search of a bigger deal. Prior to his messy 2018 campaign, after all, Allen had seemed on track for a sizable, multi-year pact in free agency.

This time last year, Allen had just agreed to a $10MM deal to avoid arbitration in his final season with the Indians. He had long since laid claim to the team’s closer role. In total, as of the conclusion of the 2017 season, Allen had run up 373 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA pitching with 11.7 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 and 122 games saved.

With an immaculate record of durability, ample high-leverage experience, and consistently robust velocity readings and swinging-strike rates, Allen had all the makings of a top free agent closer. He was due to hit the market at a relatively youthful thirty years of age. That version of Allen might reasonably have looked to a contract like the Mark Melancon deal as a floor in free agency.

Instead, things went south in 2018. It was hardly a complete disaster, as Allen was healthy enough to make seventy appearances and save 27 ballgames while showing many of the same skills he always had. But it was a thoroughly diminished version of the hurler in many regards.

For starters, Allen averaged a career-low 94.0 mph with his fastball — a notable, though hardly monumental, decline from his typical levels. Whether that was the root cause isn’t entirely clear, but opposing batters seemingly found it easier to fight off his sliders; their contact rate on balls out of the zone jumped from below fifty percent (as low as 44.3% in 2017) all the way up to 56.9% last year. Ultimately, Allen recorded a 12.7% swinging-strike — his lowest since he became the closer for the Indians — while hard contact soared to 38.4% and he coughed up nearly a homer and a half per nine innings.

That’s not to say that all is lost. Perhaps Allen can rediscover a bit of juice on his heater, or otherwise adjust. He did end up being a bit unlucky, with Statcast crediting him with a .306 xwOBA that lagged the .323 wOBA that hitters produced against him. Things certainly didn’t end on a promising note, as Allen was bombed in two postseason appearances, but he may only be a mechanical adjustment or restful winter away from clicking back into gear.

The Halos, clearly, will take a roll of the dice on a return to form. As with rotation additions Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, the organization clearly hopes to unearth some gems — or, at least, pick up some solid innings at a reasonable price — without tampering with its post-2019 balance sheet. Allen is certainly a reasonable risk, with clear upside, though the pitching unit as a whole still underwhelms on paper.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Chat Transcript: Markakis, Reds, Realmuto, More

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 3:20pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

Athletics Claim Parker Bridwell

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 22, 2019 at 3:02pm CDT

The Athletics have claimed righty Parker Bridwell off waivers from the Angels, per a club announcement. He had recently been designated for assignment by the Halos for the second time this offseason.

The 27-year-old Bridwell will give the A’s some much-needed rotation depth. Oakland will be without top starter Sean Manaea for the 2019 season following shoulder surgery, and the A’s have also seen 2018 starters Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Edwin Jackson all hit free agency. Right-hander Mike Fiers, too, was briefly a free agent after being non-tendered by Oakland, but he’s since returned on a new two-year contract.

Bridwell struggled through a nightmare season in 2018, pitching just 6 2/3 innings at the Major League level while being clobbered for 13 runs on 14 hits — including five home runs. His Triple-A work wasn’t much better, as injuries limited him to 28 innings and he yielded nearly a run per inning pitched.

However, Bridwell is also only a season removed from 121 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with the 2017 Angels. Bridwell’s meager 5.4 K/9 and near-80 percent strand rate that season called his ability to sustain that success into question, but the A’s are thin on rotation options at the moment and Bridwell now figures to factor squarely into that mix. He’s out of minor league options, so assuming he sticks on Oakland’s 40-man roster into Spring Training, he’ll need to break camp with the team or else once again be exposed to waivers.

Tigers Sign Gordon Beckham

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 2:36pm CDT

In announcing their non-roster invitees, the Tigers revealed that they have signed veteran infielder Gordon Beckham. Clearly, he’ll be on hand in camp this spring. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Beckham’s contract comes with a $700K base salary if he makes the big league roster.

Beckham will be looking to win a job as a bench piece in Detroit. While the club has little reason to utilize veterans in a manner that would block younger talent, it surely also wants to install some respected players and maintain a certain standard during another transition year. If he can’t crack the roster, Beckham would potentially represent worthwhile depth at Triple-A.

The opportunities have been sporadic of late for Beckham, who was once a regular with the White Sox. Still, he has appeared in every one of the past ten MLB seasons, compiling a cumulative .239/.302/.366 slash in 3542 plate appearances. Beckham, who’s an option at second and third base, did post a strong .302/.400/.458 batting line last year at Triple-A while drawing more walks (57) than strikeouts (52) in his 425 trips to the plate.

Braves Re-Sign Nick Markakis

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 2:21pm CDT

The Braves have officially announced a one-year, $6MM deal to re-sign outfielder Nick Markakis, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). That amount includes a $4MM salary for the coming season as well as a $2MM buyout on a 2020 club option that’s valued at $6MM. Markakis is a client of TWC Sports.

With the move, the Braves have evidently resolved their right field opening by returning to a known commodity. The 35-year-old Markakis just wrapped up a four-year, $44MM deal with the Atlanta organization, during which he appeared in all but a dozen of the team’s contests.

The last season of that pact was easily the best for Markakis, at least from an offensive perspective, as he posted his most productive campaign at the plate since way back in 2012. Ultimately, he slashed a healthy .297/.366/.440 through 705 plate appearances.

Despite the boost in output, Markakis will secure a good bit less than MLBTR had predicted (two years, $16MM). As Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets, though, GM Alex Anthopoulos said that other teams put more years and dollars on the table. Markakis simply preferred to come back to Atlanta.

Regardless, the market was obviously well aware of the various qualifiers to the offensive numbers that Markakis put up in 2018. Most notably, he failed to sustain the eye-popping power surge he displayed to open the season, hitting just seven long balls over his final 545 plate appearances. Markakis finished with a .143 ISO that steadily topped his output over his first three seasons in Atlanta. It seems fair to say there’s good reason to question whether he’ll sustain that; odds are, he’ll regress back toward the league-average-ish overall batting productivity levels he had settled in at over the prior half-decade.

To be sure, a significant portion of Markakis’s reputation has been built on his abilities in the field (as well as his durability). Though metrics haven’t seen him as an extraordinary fielder of late, he did pick up his third Gold Glove award last year.

In the aggregate, though, Markakis seems to be more of a candidate to function as a platoon piece than a true regular — at least for a team that has designs on a repeat division title. He has a lifetime .808 OPS against right-handed pitching, 83 points higher than his output against southpaws.

That would line up nicely with Adam Duvall, supposing the right-handed hitter can rebound from a dreadful second-half run with the Braves. With the team also intending to utilize switch-hitter Johan Camargo at times in the outfield, and center fielder Ender Inciarte also perhaps a candidate to sit at times against southpaws, there should be plenty of mix-and-match opportunities — supposing, at least, that Markakis is asked to play a reduced role for the first time in his 13-year career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Readers’ Mock Hall Of Fame Ballot

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 1:11pm CDT

The votes are in, but it remains to be seen who has been elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame. Official results will be revealed this evening. In the meantime, those with interest are left to examine the ballot-counting efforts of Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs). Here’s his updated spreadsheet for reference as to what is publicly known at this time, representing just over half of the total ballots. If you’re interested in what those data points predict, check out this post from Ryan Pollock of The Hardball Times.

While it’s hardly our core area of coverage, we thought we’d get in on the fun and allow our readers a chance to have a quick say as to who ought to be inducted this year. For these purposes, we’ll include only those players who have received more than five percent of the actual tally documented to this point. (That’s also the threshold those players will need to clear to stay on the ballot for another season.) That limits the field a bit, but you’ll have the opportunity to pick as many candidates as you like, whereas BBWAA members are limited to ten selections annually. (Fangraphs recently released the results of its own crowdsourced ballot, unsullied by the ensuing partial release of actual voting results and under conditions much more closely approximating the real thing.)

Here’s the poll, with response order randomized. This is just for fun, of course, but hopefully it’ll still be interesting to see where MLBTR readers land on the story of the day. (Link for app users.)

The poll is now closed. Only two players landed on a high-enough percentage of ballots to crack the 75% barrier:

Mariano Rivera	99.11%
Roy Halladay	76.97%
Edgar Martinez	70.85%
Mike Mussina	55.66%
Barry Bonds	55.07%
Roger Clemens	55.05%
Curt Schilling	43.32%
Fred McGriff	39.45%
Larry Walker	39.12%
Manny Ramirez	27.25%
Todd Helton	23.64%
Omar Vizquel	21.62%
Jeff Kent	21.17%
Billy Wagner	20.80%
Andy Pettitte	18.76%
Andruw Jones	18.72%
Scott Rolen	18.71%
Gary Sheffield	18.46%
Sammy Sosa	15.01%

AL East Notes: Sanchez, Thornburg, Orioles

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 22, 2019 at 10:10am CDT

It has been a confounding few years for Blue Jays righty Aaron Sanchez, who has seen his promising career sidetracked by a series of finger problems. Of course, at just 26 years of age, there’s still every chance he can regain his trajectory — so long, that is, if he’s able to get back to full health. As John Lott of The Athletic examines (subscription required), Sanchez is preparing for Spring Training with ample optimism after undergoing surgery on his right index finger last fall. He first threw earlier this month but says he feels immense improvement already. Lott explains that Sanchez has found initial success with a steady, daily stretching program to prepare his joints — one that’ll need to be integrated into a new, broader preparation regime once camp opens (and the season begins thereafter). Pitching through pain last year, Sanchez exhibited some velocity loss and a distinct lack of effectiveness. Though he actually managed a career-high 9.5% swinging-strike rate, due perhaps to ramped-up usage of his change at the expense of his once-dominant sinker, Sanchez drew less grounders than usual (a still-strong 49.1%) and struggled with free passes (5.0 per nine) as he struggled to stay in the zone (career-worst 40.5% zone rate). Needless to say, it would benefit both the Jays and Sanchez himself quite a bit if he’s able to author a turnaround. He’s slated to earn $3.9MM in his second-to-last season of team control.

A few more notes from the AL East …

Speaking of injured hurlers from the division, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Red Sox righty Tyler Thornburg began his offseason throwing program earlier than usual this winter, adding that Thornburg’s shoulder has “tested out well” in the early-going. Boston has done nothing to address its bullpen this offseason after Joe Kelly left to sign with the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel hit the open market, and if that pattern holds, they’ll need Thornburg and others to step up and contribute more than most would’ve expected heading into the offseason. Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently went on record to suggest that he doesn’t anticipate spending heavily on a closer, and recent reports have implied that the Sox may prefer to remain south of the top luxury tax line.
There’s still very little certainty on the Orioles’ coaching staff, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com provides an update on a series of potential (in some cases likely) hires that could filter in as the Baltimore organization sets it staff. Kubatko writes that assistant hitting coach Howie Clark is expected to return in his previous role, while the organization may very well promote at least one staff member from the minor league ranks to help round out manager Brandon Hyde’s staff — specifically, Triple-A field coach Jose Hernandez, a 15-year MLB veteran who has since become a fixture in the O’s system. There’s other chatter in the post regarding how the Orioles may end up filling out their slate of coaches.

Central Notes: Twins, Castellanos, Bucs, Cards/Cubs

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 8:14am CDT

The Twins’ reported agreement with left-hander Martin Perez won’t preclude them from adding further arms this offseason, writes Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “I think there are still some guys on the board that are interesting, certainly that could fit, so we remain engaged with those,” chief baseball officer Derek Falvey tells Helfand. Falvey wouldn’t rule out adding another pitcher on a big league deal, acknowledging that the team has some payroll flexibility — especially relative to the previous levels at which they’ve spent.

Somewhat surprisingly, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins are indeed viewing Perez as a starting pitcher. Perez is coming off a season in which he ranked in the bottom one percent of strikeout rate and opponents’ weighted on-base average among big league pitchers in 2018. Perez is still just 27, was once a well-regarded prospect and is a known commodity for GM Thad Levine (formerly an assistant GM in Texas), but the Twins weren’t short on options for the fifth spot in the rotation. Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Duffey, Kohl Stewart and Zack Littell were all already on the 40-man roster, but the Twins are seemingly more comfortable with Perez as a back-of-the-rotation option early in 2019 than any of that bunch.

West Notes: Dodgers, Angels, Ichiro

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 21, 2019 at 11:26pm CDT

The Dodgers remain something of an enigma as Spring Training approaches. It’s possible to imagine the organization making any number of moves over the next few weeks, with so many opportunities still available on the market. At several areas on the roster, the team could conceivably either make an external move or utilize existing players. There is, however, an overarching need for a right-handed hitter, per manager Dave Roberts (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). While the skipper hardly gave much away, he did say that he believes there are more moves to come. And Roberts, at least, would like to see one transaction that would “kind of balance out the lineup with a right-handed bat.”

Here’s more from out west …

Angels GM Billy Eppler told reporters following his team’s signing of right-hander Cody Allen that the Halos had to “stretch” the budget and were only able to do so with the blessing of owner Arte Moreno (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). As such, it seems unlikely that there are any other sizable moves on the horizon for the Angels. Eppler explained that the team was undeterred by Allen’s inflated 4.70 ERA last offseason, citing Allen’s long ninth-inning track record and plainly stating that the organization fully anticipates Allen serving as the closer in 2019.
Though Ichiro Suzuki has widely been expected to receive a send-off from the Mariners during the club’s season-opening series in Japan, Jim Allen of Kyodo News writes that the legendary outfielder doesn’t necessarily see things that way. Rather, per agent John Boggs, the aging but impeccably conditioned veteran is “working toward playing the whole season.” It’s a bit tough to imagine any MLB club giving Ichiro a guaranteed contract, but perhaps the 45-year-old still has another trick up his sleeve. He’ll have a chance to show his form in camp with Seattle, at least. Beyond the news item here, the article is well worth a read for Allen’s chat with Boggs about his famously unique client.

DeWitt: Cardinals Interested In Long-Term Deal With Paul Goldschmidt

By Jeff Todd | January 21, 2019 at 9:03pm CDT

Though the Cardinals may not have many further additions to make to their 2019 roster, that doesn’t mean the club’s offeason business is complete. In comments today, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch was among those to report, owner Bill DeWitt Jr. made clear that the organization has serious interest in keeping newly acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt beyond the coming campaign.

It’s certainly not a surprise to hear that the Cards have interest in a long-term arrangement, though it certainly could have been the case that the team would instead have taken more of a wait-and-see position. Foreseeable though it may have been, it is notable that the Cards are seemingly embarking upon an extension effort (or at least, are laying the groundwork for one) at this early juncture.

Negotiations, it seems, likely haven’t begun. But DeWitt and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made clear that they fully intend to pursue contract talks, perhaps as soon as this spring.

“We’d love to have him here longer than one year,” said DeWitt, “and we’ll just see how that plays out.” He went on to hint at the Cardinals’ thinking on the initial decision to acquire Goldschmidt in a deal that cost young, controllable, MLB-level talent: “I think worst case is we get a top Draft choice, but that’s not our goal when we trade for a player like Paul Goldschmidt.”

Though Mozeliak wasn’t quite as forthcoming, he did cite the same idea of a one-year “gamble” that DeWitt did. Clearly, the organization pulled the trigger on the trade in part due to the potential for gaining an exclusive bargaining window and recruitment opportunity.

Of course, the timing of all this is less than clear. Mozeliak did say that the first step would be to allow Goldschmidt to settle in with the club in Spring Training. Then? “Ultimately, we’ll sort of, as we round the first turn, get a better idea of what the second turn looks like,” said Mozeliak. Whether that will mean late-spring talks, negotiations during the season, and/or an effort to bring him back via free agency is at this point anyone’s guess.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things progress. With just one year to go until free agency, Goldschmidt is tantalizingly close to picking his own team and likely commanding a massive new deal. He’s also already 31 years of age and plays a position that teams have increasingly hesitated to invest in. Of course, Goldschmidt is hardly a common first baseman, either.

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