Yoenis Cespedes Discusses Opt-Out
7:55pm: Cespedes has already walked back his comments somewhat, as Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. Asked about his earlier comments, Cespedes replied (through a translator): “I’ve said it before: My intentions, of course, are to be here for three years and if I can spend the rest of my career with the Mets I would.” Cespedes, though, said he hasn’t made a final decision as to whether he’ll opt out. “My focus is just to play baseball and help the team win, hopefully make it to the playoffs. I let my agents worry about all that.”
Certainly, it’d be fairly stunning if Cespedes passed up the opportunity to hit the open market, though the possibility of course remains that his agents could work out an extension or that he could simply opt out and re-sign for a considerably larger sum than the $47.5MM he’d be guaranteed through 2018 under his current contract.
1:33pm: Mets star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes says that he still intends to stay for the final two years of his contract with the Mets, as Bob Klapisch and Matt Ehalt of the Bergen Record report. Of course, there’s still time to go before he has to decide on his opt-out clause, which still looks like the better financial decision from his perspective.
Cespedes landed in New York via trade, but seemingly prioritized a return when he hit the open market last winter. He spurned larger guarantees from other organizations to stick with the Mets for a three-year, $75MM commitment with the opt-out opportunity coming after just one season. (It’s important to note that the other reported contracts on the table had lower average annual values and lacked the opportunity to re-enter the market.)
Though he has long maintained that he was signing on for the full three years that the contract could cover, Cespedes has done nothing but improve his market thus far in 2016. While he has missed a bit of time due to injury, the 30-year-old has compiled a robust .295/.365/.570 batting line that nearly matches the overall output he gave the Mets last year down the stretch.
That could spell big dollars if Cespedes does end up changing his mind and declining what amounts to a two-year, $47.5MM player option. Though he’ll surely come with a qualifying offer attached this time around, and is obviously a year older, the Cuban star also now has two consecutive years of stellar play to support his case. There other other top power bats and other outfielders available, but Cespedes currently holds the top spot in the free agent power rankings of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.
Whether or not New York would make another push to retain Cespedes remain unclear. It’s theoretically possible the club could weigh an extension offer, or pursue the veteran slugger if he triggers the clause. But it’s largely beyond question that the organization would be overjoyed if he decides to stay. Even with both Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce under contract for another year (the former via guarantee, the latter an option), Juan Lagares set to return from injury, and younger players like Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo on hand, the remaining commitment to Cespedes represents a reasonably-priced route to top-line production that would be hard to count on from other sources.
Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard Clear Revocable Waivers
Phillies veterans Carlos Ruiz and Ryan Howard have both cleared revocable waivers, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark (via Twitter). Both can now be freely traded without restriction, though only one week remains for players to be dealt while remaining eligible for the post-season rosters of their new clubs.
The news is hardly surprising, and it’s not altogether clear that either player holds much chance of being moved. The pair constitutes the last remaining players from the organization’s recent golden years, and neither has ever played for another major league team. Both are obviously well past their prime but remain expensive, and each possesses full no-trade protection via ten-and-five rights.
Two teams, however, are said to be “mulling” a move to add Ruiz, who is earning $8.5MM and is owed a $500K buyout on a $4.5MM club option next year. He is actually playing fairly well this year — particularly given that it is his age-37 season — in reserve action. In 193 plate appearances, Ruiz has put up a crafty .261/.368/.352 batting line, making up for his lack of power with a rather remarkable ratio of 28 strikeouts against 24 walks.
Meanwhile, says Stark, there’s no indication whatsoever that Howard will be moved — as had been previously reported. He is not only playing on a $25MM salary this year, but will still take home a $10MM buyout on a 2017 club option. The 36-year-old slugger is a limited player at this stage, though he is still capable of hitting right-handed pitching and has popped 19 long balls in 286 plate appearances. Howard is putting on a Philly swan song at the moment, as he has banged out five home runs and delivered a .378/.425/.838 slash in the month of August.
Dombrowski: Red Sox Still “Open” To Adding Papelbon, Await His Decision
The Red Sox are still amenable to reaching a deal with free agent reliever Jonathan Papelbon, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested in comments to MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link).
Last we checked in, a return of Papelbon to Boston — where he made his name as a big leaguer — seemed unlikely. And that may still be the case, especially since the longer Papelbon goes without joining an organization, the more time (and less opportunity) he’ll have to ramp up.
[Related: Up-to-Date Red Sox Depth Chart]
It seems that the ball remains in Papelbon’s court to move his career forward, as at least the Red Sox, and possibly other organizations, remain interested in signing him. As Dombrowski put it, “he has to decide what he wants to do.” If he has any hopes of throwing in the playoffs, moreover, Papelbon will need to sign within the next week, as post-season rosters cannot include players that joined an organization after the end of August.
Whether Papelbon and his representatives are holding out for more favorable terms, or have other considerations in mind, isn’t really known. But the long-time closer doesn’t seem to have much leverage. Teams may not be willing to give him assurances of how often he’ll pitch or in what role, if they are even willing to commit a major league deal to a hurler who had turned in a career-worst 4.37 ERA and hasn’t pitched in nearly three weeks.
Barring a string of injuries, it’s not clear that the offers will improve, at least from the Red Sox. As Dombrowski characterized things, there doesn’t appear to be much room for negotiation: “We are open, we did call, he has to decide.”
8 Hitters Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries
The principles of determining the arbitration salaries of hitters were established long ago by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. While the arb projection model is always being tweaked as it reacts to subtle changes in the process, the fundamental elements remain the same: for hitters to get paid, they need to take a lot of plate appearances, sock a lot of dingers, and rack up those RBIs. Other factors matter too, of course — and quite a bit more goes into making an actually productive player — but those are the major drivers of arb dollars.
So, who is set to cash in this year in their first time through the arbitration system? Players like Nick Castellanos and Yangervis Solarte have some of the attributes of big arbitration earners, but have had their playing time curtailed by injury. Other reasonably productive players, including Billy Hamilton and Ender Inciarte, just don’t add value in the right kinds of ways.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some hitters who are well on their way to commanding sizable first-year arbitration salaries this winter — locking up a first big payday and setting the a high starting point for future arb raises:
Khris Davis, OF, Athletics: With 33 home runs already in the bank, Davis has a decent chance to reach the 40-dinger plateau and reach the century mark for his career. And he’s a good bet to clear 100 RBI with 82 already on his ledger. As Swartz has explained before, awards and milestones can help boost an arb case. Davis’s lack of walks, middling .300 OBP, and subpar defensive work matter quite a bit more in real life than they do in the arbitration world.
George Springer, OF, Astros (Likely Super Two): Though he’ll only be eligible for Super Two status, that means that Springer is going to be setting a nice, high starting point for his three additional seasons of arbitration control beyond 2017. He leads all players on this list with 581 plate appearances, and he has produced 25 long balls and 72 RBI over that stretch. Though runs don’t seem to have a major impact on the arb valuation process, it can’t hurt that Springer is sure to top 100. And monster production in 2014-15 bolsters Springer’s case as well. Now we can see why the ‘Stros tried to get Springer locked up to an extension before he was a fully established big leaguer.
Wil Myers, 1B, Padres: Though he doesn’t feature monster power, Myers is sitting with 23 bombs and could reach 30 by season’s end. He also has matched Springer with 72 RBI to date over his 530 plate appearances, to go with a sturdy .267/.343/.473 slash line. Plus, while steals don’t pay all that much, the 22 accumulated by Myers could help some. It was an advantageous time for Myers to finally play in over 100 MLB games in a season, though his prior injuries will tamp down his earnings somewhat since he hasn’t accumulated as many plate appearances and counting stats as he could have.
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox (Likely Super Two): Though he is actually out-slugging everybody else named in this post (.509), JBJ is tied for the lead in ribbies (72) and lags just a bit in dingers (21). Still, he’s going to command a healthy Super Two payday. (It seems safe to assume that he’ll qualify for that status with what will end up being 2.150 years of service at year end.)
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: Bradley’s teammate is playing every day and producing at a fantastic rate for a shortstop, with the positional value likely to help his case somewhat. He has a chance to end the year with twenty homers and around 90 runs batted in, and Bogaerts is also tops among this group with a .310 batting average. Given his extensive action coming into the season, moreover, Bogaerts has more total career plate appearances than anyone named here — except for the next guy down.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins: Like Bogaerts, Ozuna has over 1,800 career PAs coming into the year and plays a premium defensive position. His demotion last year prevented him from reaching Super Two status last fall, but he’s making up for it with a big .277/.331/.489 campaign. Ozuna will probably top 600 trips to the plate, could approach (or maybe even reach) thirty long balls, and may end up with around eighty ribbies.
Brad Miller, INF, Rays: This year has had some peaks and valleys for Miller, who was moved off of the shortstop position but has largely thrived with the bat. Most notably, he has already banged out 25 home runs and carries a robust .262/.321/.522 batting line. There are some limitations here, including the slightly lower PA (455) and RBI (60) tallies thus far, but Miller is going to command a large first-time salary.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles: Good news, Fantex investors! Having already topped twenty dingers after twice popping double-digit home run tallies, Schoop is ready to cash in. He plays up the middle, which helps, and he’s likely to reach 600 plate appearances.
AL Notes: Encarnacion, Bautista, Angels Stadium, Holland
Star Blue Jays first baseman/DH Edwin Encarnacion is facing a civil suit from a woman who claims that he knowingly infected her with sexually transmitted diseases, as TMZ recently reported. The unsettling allegations can be found here, courtesy of the Toronto Star. Encarnacion’s representatives have strongly denied any wrongdoing, with agent Paul Kinzer calling the lawsuit “frivolous,” as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. At this time, there is no indication either that a criminal investigation relating to the claims is being pursued, or that Major League Baseball will undertake its own investigation into the matter. One of the game’s best hitters, the 33-year-old Encarnacion is slated to become a heavily-pursued free agent at the end of the season.
More from the American League:
- There was some good news on the injury front for the Blue Jays, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports. Second baseman Devon Travis needed a cortisone shot to address a hand injury, but is expected to be ready to go today. And slugger Jose Bautista may return from his knee sprain tomorrow, which is the first date he’d be eligible to come off of the 15-day DL. That’s great news for the Jays and the veteran outfielder, who ought to have a nice stretch of time available to burnish his free agent credentials. Bautista is putting up an above-average .222/.349/.444 batting line in his 355 plate appearances on the year, but that’s well off of his usual production levels and this is his second stint on the disabled list.
- Renewed talks between the Angels and the city of Anaheim on a new lease arrangement for Angels Stadium are off to something of a rocky start, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. While the Halos organization had objected to the construction of a 15-acre, multi-use development project that will be raised next to the ballpark’s parking lot. Despite the team’s claim that the complex would compete with the stadium’s own concessions — and, therefore, “fundamentally undermine the Angels’ negotiations to remain in Anaheim over the long term” — the Anaheim Planning Commission voted unanimously to approve it. Final approval still must be obtained from city council, and it’s still unclear just how much of an impediment this matter will prove to be, but it seems that the Angels and the city still have some differences to smooth out.
- While the Rangers lost their third straight ballgame yesterday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News finds a ray of hope: the performance of starter Derek Holland. In his first outing since June 20, the southpaw allowed just one earned run on four hits and a walk, striking out five over six solid frames that required only 73 pitches. When Texas ended up foregoing a starting staff upgrade at the trade deadline, it left the middle and back of its rotation somewhat exposed. But Grant wonders whether Holland might be able not only to solidify things down the stretch, but also win the third spot in a hypothetical but hopeful playoff rotation.
Marlins Claim Oswaldo Arcia, Place Derek Dietrich On 15-Day DL
The Marlins have claimed outfielder Oswaldo Arcia off waivers from the Rays, the club announced. He’ll take the active roster spot of Derek Dietrich, who hits the 15-day DL with a right knee contusion, and occupy the 40-man spot of first baseman Justin Bour, who moves to the 60-day DL.
[Related: Updated Rays Depth Chart]
Adding an outfielder has long been said to be on the Miami to-do list. While picking Arcia off the waiver wire may not have been the club’s top preference, he’ll help fill the corner outfield mix with Giancarlo Stanton expected to miss much of the remainder of the year.
The talented 25-year-old has had his ups and downs, but was carrying a useful .259/.328/.444 in his 61 plate appearances in Tampa Bay before his release. Still, he parted ways with the Rays by way of his second trip to DFA limbo on the year, so teams obviously have reservations about Arcia’s ability to regain his former trajectory.
Unfortunately, the addition will come even as Dietrich becomes unavailable, joining Bour as injured southpaw hitters who could provide some pop at first base. Arcia represents another lefty bat to help bolster the lineup, but it doesn’t seem that he’ll be an option at first, which he has never played as a professional.
Though Miami has moved Bour to the 60-day DL, that doesn’t seem to change his ability to return when ready. He was placed on the DL retroactive to July 3, and isn’t expected back before the middle of September anyway.
2017 Vesting Options Update
It has been a while since we checked in on the 2017 vesting options that will be decided by the 2016 stat sheets. With all quiet elsewhere, it seemed like an opportune time for an update:
- Coco Crisp ($13MM option vests at 550 plate appearances or 130 games played in 2016): It has been an up and down year for the veteran, who currently owns an adequate but ultimately just-below-average .235/.301/.406 batting line on the year. He has reached 420 plate appearances in 98 games, so it would take something approaching everyday playing time for the option to vest. Crisp recently accused the A’s of tamping down his playing time to avoid just that possibility. From an outside perspective, it does seem that there are legitimate reasons unrelated to the vesting clause to justify less-than-regular action for Crisp — he hasn’t played all that well and the team reasonably hopes to see younger players in action — though the A’s undoubtedly have that consideration in mind as well. Regardless of the precise reason, it’s all but inconceivable to think that Oakland will allow that stack of cash to become guaranteed.
- Matt Holliday ($17MM option vests with Top 10 finish in MVP voting): This one was always a longshot to vest, and it became increasingly apparent over the year that Holliday was posting a solid — but hardly MVP worthy — campaign. Still, his recent injury put the final nail in the coffin for all but theoretical chances at landing inside the top ten. Accordingly, the Cards will face a difficult decision on the veteran outfielder, who is still an above-average hitter but has shown signs of decline.
- Chris Iannetta ($6MM option vests with 100 games started in 2016): Iannetta’s option was trending strongly towards vesting when we last looked, but things have changed with the re-emergence of Mike Zunino in Seattle. Iannetta would need to start 22 games to pick up the $6MM guarantee, but he has only appeared in seven contests thus far in the month of August. Iannetta has also seen his production drop; he currently owns a .218/.310/.343 batting line. Whether or not Seattle has any interest in picking up that tab remains to be seen, but it probably won’t make it to the club’s books by operation of the vesting provision.
- Yusmeiro Petit ($3MM option vests with 80 innings pitched in 2016): The likeliest path to this option vesting was for a need to arise to utilize Petit as a temporary rotation piece. While he has made one spot start and some other lengthy appearances, though, Petit has only compiled 55 frames to date — making it quite unlikely that the clause will vest. (Realistically, it would probably take multiple rotation injuries.) That being said, he has done everything the Nats hoped he would, carrying a 3.27 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, and still seems rather likely to have the option exercised regardless.
- CC Sabathia ($25MM option vests if he does not end season on DL with shoulder injury or miss 45+ games in 2016 due to shoulder injury): Sabathia’s season has taken a turn for the worst since the last time we checked in about two months ago. His results are looking more like those of disappointing recent years than the bounceback first half. But Sabathia has still shown no signs of shoulder problems, so with less than 45 days left to go on the season, it doesn’t seem there’s any way for the Yanks to get out from under this big tab.
- Kurt Suzuki ($6MM option vests with 485 plate appearances in 2016): The 32-year-old has 303 plate appearances of league-average offensive production, which bodes reasonably well for his free agent case but doesn’t set him up for another year in Minnesota by way of the vesting clause. It is all but official: Suzuki is headed to the open market.
As noted in the original update, both Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn had vesting options for the 2017 season as well, but those options were negated when each was released from the four-year contracts they initially signed with the Indians.
Dodgers Notes: Kazmir, Hill, Johnson
Dodgers lefty Scott Kazmir is headed for an examination today as he deals with back and neck issues, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times was among those to tweet. The issue isn’t exactly a new one, but seems to be an occasionally recurring problem. As Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets, Kazmir says that he ends up having trouble picking up the target and keeping his right side closed when it flares up. It’s not yet clear whether a DL stint will be considered or whether there’s cause for broader concern. Regardless, it’s not great news for a Los Angeles team that has dealt with injuries to nearly every member of its rotation at one point or another this year.
Here are a few more notes out of Los Angeles:
- The Dodgers are at least finally set to welcome trade deadline acquisition Rich Hill to the rotation on Wednesday, as he is now officially scheduled to start an important tilt against Johnny Cueto and the Giants. Hill has been on the shelf for much longer than had been expected while waiting for a blister to heal and has yet to take the mound since arriving in L.A. over three weeks ago. A blister may not sound like much of an injury, but as Eric Nusbaum explores in great detail for Vice Sports, it’s a major problem for a pitcher.
- Dan Johnson, a 37-year-old former first baseman, has joined the Dodgers as a knuckleballing hurler, per an announcement from the indy league St. Paul Saints (with whom he was pitching). He’ll head to Double-A for the Los Angeles organization, where he’ll be reunited with Andrew Friedman — who was the GM of the Rays back when Johnson popped his famous home run for the organization. Johnson had returned to Tampa Bay for Spring Training this year, but wasn’t able to stick as a pitcher. Now, he’ll head to the Double-A level and try for an improbable return to the majors. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN recently ran a story on Johnson that is well worth a look.
Tim Tebow Set To Work Out For MLB Scouts
Former NFL quarterback Tim Tebow will hold a workout for major league teams on August 30th, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick was among those to tweet. You can find a round-up of ESPN.com’s reporting on the topic here. He’ll be hoping to convince scouts that he is worthy of his first professional baseball contract at 29 years of age.
An all-time great NCAA football performer on the gridiron for the University of Florida, Tebow’s celebrity has outstripped his performance since he joined the professional ranks. He washed out after just three seasons in the NFL and has mostly worked as a college football analyst since 2012.
The more recent shift of Tebow’s gaze to the National Pastime has created ample media attention. It largely goes without saying, though, that the odds remain firmly against him ever playing any kind of impactful role in a minor league system — let alone reaching or succeeding in the majors. Tebow was quite a productive baseball player in high school, when he lined up in the corner outfield, but has focused exclusively on football in the intervening decade-plus since he hung up his glove and bat after his junior year.
Despite the long odds, it seems that MLB clubs are intrigued enough to take a look. More than twenty, in fact, are reportedly sending talent evaluators to see the workout, which is said to be the culmination of almost a year of preparation. Tebow will go through a fairly typical routine, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. He’ll run, field flies and throw to bases, take live BP, and then face some live pitching.
The Dodgers previously “showed interest” after one of their scouts watched Tebow before the season, per ESPN.com’s Darren Rovell. Perhaps it’s telling, though, that the game’s most voracious consumer of amateur talent did not find a way to get the former Heisman Trophy winner into its talent pipeline when it had the chance. Whether or not Tebow has enhanced his appeal since that time remains to be seen, though it seems apparent already that the entire undertaking has succeeded in creating a spectacle.
Blue Jays Pursued Joey Votto Trade Last Summer
The Blue Jays opened “serious discussions” with the Reds last summer about a possible deal to add star first baseman Joey Votto, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. But those talks “never gained momentum,” per the report.
Instead, Toronto shifted its attention to adding Troy Tulowitzki and David Price in a pair of blockbusters that helped push the club into the post-season. While the dialogue with the Reds seemingly did not get very far down the line, Griffin says that the expectation was that Cincinnati would hold onto some of the large financial commitments to Votto, who is owed $179MM after the end of the 2016 season. (Ultimately, the Blue Jays took on Tulowitzki’s own lengthy deal, but sent Jose Reyes back to the Rockies to help offset the cost.)
Of course, it must be emphasized that those moves — as well as the chatter with Cincinnati — all took place under former general manager Alex Anthopoulos. He left over the offseason after the team hired Mark Shapiro as club president, with Shapiro ultimately bringing in Ross Atkins to step into the GM role.
It’s not clear whether or not the new front office leadership would share the interest of its predecessors in adding Votto. A native of Ontario, Votto would surely be desirable to any organization, as he continues to put up stellar offensive numbers (.309/.433/.522 with 20 home runs thus far in 2016). But the monster contract is another matter, especially for a player who will soon turn 33 years of age.
We’ve yet to hear of any current interest in such a maneuver from the Shapiro/Atkins front office group, so for now it’s all hypothetical, but Griffin goes on to argue that Votto still makes sense as a target for the Jays. It seems likely that Votto will clear waivers, and perhaps he’d be amenable to waiving his no-trade clause for a chance to return to his native land. In the near-term, he’d represent a major boost to a team that has seen its best left-handed hitters fade of late, and then he’d step into the void left when Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista reach the open market after the season.
There’s certainly some facial appeal to the suggestion, but it bears noting that there are plenty of hurdles even if Toronto were to pursue Votto. Among other things, the Reds would presumably want to minimize their ongoing salary obligations while also reaping a nice package of young talent to part with their best player.