John Henry On Dombrowski, Sandoval, Ortiz, Extensions, Pitching
Red Sox owner John Henry discussed a variety of topics in an exchange with Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald (read more here and here). Fans of the team and those interested in the interaction of the front office and upper management will certainly want to give the Q&A a full read, but here are some of the highlights:
Henry discussed the baseball operations department quite a bit. He credited former GM Ben Cherington for his “discipline” during his tenure running the team. Indeed, Boston has benefited from the strong play of several young players who were often mentioned as possible trade pieces. Upon taking the helm, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has “done a very good job of bringing the clubhouse and front office together,” says Henry.
The decision to add Dombrowski not only represented a switch at the top of baseball ops, but also led Boston to join an increasing number of teams in utilizing a president of baseball operations as well as a general manager. C“I think most big clubs now realize that the traditional GM role was just too large and demanding,” Henry explains while noting that he has been impressed by the performance of new GM Mike Hazen, who was Cherington’s top lieutenant but ended up being retained and promoted by Dombrowski.
Henry also touched upon the status of injured and embattled Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval. The 30-year-old is an important part of the near future for Boston, Henry says. That’s self-evident to some extent, as Sandoval is owed $58MM over the next three seasons (including the buyout of a 2020 club option). But the Sox owner suggests that the organization has expectations that Sandoval can return to being the “supremely talented veteran and a proven winner” that the club signed up for in the first place. “This year and last were frustrating for him and frustrating for us,” Henry says of Sandoval. “We need him next year.”
Sandoval’s importance is heightened by the fact that David Ortiz is set to retire after the year, Henry suggests. Big Papi is in the midst of an all-time age-40 season — he currently leads the league with a 1.050 OPS — and that obviously represents a more-or-less irreplaceable source of offense, though the free agent market does promise to offer several big bats. Sandoval certainly doesn’t look like a direct substitute, but a typical pre-Boston season from the Panda would go a long way toward making up for the loss.
Ortiz’s monster season has inevitably raised questions about whether he’ll reconsider his decision to hang ’em up. While Henry says that he would invite that, it doesn’t sound as if anything is actually under consideration with Ortiz still battling through pain to make it on the field. “If at some point he seriously considers coming back, it would be a great day for the organization,” said Henry. “But, unfortunately, I don’t think that is in the cards.”
Even as the Sox bid adieu to Big Papi, they have some immensely talented, younger position players like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. on hand to constitute a new core. The natural question is whether and when Boston will aim to extend some of these regulars. While Henry declined to answer in any detail, he did note that, “if this group wants to play together for a long-time, we’ll do everything we can to make it happen.”
It’s rather easy to make a case for offering new, long-term deals to any of those three players, each of whom has now performed in the majors for a reasonably extended stretch — thus seemingly making good on their promise as prospects. But the Red Sox organization has a much less impressive record in developing pitching than in churning out bats from the farm. Unsurprisingly, Henry labeled that a “problem.” While he didn’t divulge much, he suggested that it’s a priority for the team to figure out how to draft and develop young arms.
AL Notes: Weaver, Gray, Storen, Jays
Angels righty Jered Weaver isn’t ready to decide whether or not he’ll be back in 2017, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. “There’s still a lot of season left,” said the veteran hurler. “When the time comes to answer those questions, I will.” Though Weaver has been hit hard this year, there are some positives, including a steadily rising average fastball velocity (albeit one that still sits in the mid-eighties). Both Angels GM Billy Eppler and Weaver’s agent Scott Boras note that the 33-year-old has been durable this year, though he is now two seasons removed from being a high-quality major league starter. It’s not yet clear whether the Halos will have interest in continuing their longstanding relationship with Weaver, who has spent all 11 years of his career with the organization and is finishing out a five-year, $85MM contract.
Here’s more from the American League:
- The Athletics seem unlikely at this point to receive another start from righty Sonny Gray in the 2016 season, as John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group writes. Oakland’s medical staff still hasn’t cleared Gray to begin throwing. Without much time in the minor league season to permit a rehab assignment, the road back to the big league hill may not pick up again in earnest until the spring. Manager Bob Melvin suggests that the best outcome at this point may be for Gray to “just throw off a mound and throw a bullpen” to give the 26-year-old “peace of mind about how he feels going into the offseason.”
- Mariners righty Drew Storen is headed to the 15-day DL with right shoulder inflammation, per a club announcement. His active roster spot will go to outfielder Guillermo Heredia. While the Seattle pen has several injured hurlers filtering back to the majors and remains a solid overall unit, it’s another blow for the 29-year-old Storen. Since coming to the M’s a few weeks back after being designated by the Blue Jays, Storen has thrown 10 1/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball. That’s an improvement in the results department over his poor half-season in Toronto, but Storen has recorded only six strikeouts in Seattle and hasn’t reversed his pronounced velocity decline. He’ll be a free agent after the year, and will surely end up seeking an opportunity to bounce back and return to being the quality late-inning arm he was during most of his six seasons with the Nationals. [Related: Updated Mariners Depth Chart]
- Adding to several firings in the upper reaches of their scouting and player development departments, the Blue Jays have decided to part ways with minor league pitching coordinator Sal Fasano, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports. The long-time MLB catcher has been with the Toronto organization in various capacities since 2010. GM Ross Atkins recently discussed the team’s changes and plans for finding replacements.
Michael Hill Discusses Marlins Roster
With the Marlins sitting just out of Wild Card position, president of baseball operations Michael Hill discussed his team’s roster with MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. While Hill didn’t get into specifics, he did suggest that Miami will continue looking for ways to improve its roster.
The club only has about a week to add playoff-eligible players, of course, but has been said to be looking at both pitching and outfield additions. “We’re right in the thick of this thing,” Hill said when asked about possible acquisitions. “Every win counts. We’re going to give ourselves every opportunity to do so, hopefully throughout the rest of August and into September.”
As ever, internal dynamics can have the largest impact. First and foremost, Hill noted that the return of A.J. Ramos will restore the late-inning mix that the club hoped for when it acquired Fernando Rodney earlier in the summer. Rodney will stay in the ninth inning for the time being.
The starting staff is still hurting with Adam Conley and Wei-Yin Chen on the shelf. It seems that the former is closer to his return, though his timetable remains uncertain. Hill suggested that the hope is Chen can make it back by the end of the regular season, though it appears that his elbow injury will keep him out through at least most of the month of September.
Critically, ace Jose Fernandez is on track for the team’s innings target, according to Hill. The team’s top baseball operations man says that Fernandez is set up to shoulder a full workload down the stretch and into a hopeful post-season berth.
Also, with Justin Bour still working his way back from an ankle injury, the Marlins expect to mix and match at first base to get their best bats into the lineup. Hill said that manager Don Mattingly will decide who to go to among Derek Dietrich, Chris Johnson, and the just-recalled Xavier Scruggs.
D-Backs To Activate A.J. Pollock From DL Later This Week
The Diamondbacks appear to be on the verge of some much-needed good news, as manager Chip Hale suggested today that center fielder A.J. Pollock will likely be activated from the DL later this week. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweeted Hale’s comments.
Pollock’s season debut will come too late to help reverse a forgettable 2016 campaign. But it’s an enormous step for the organization, which entered the year with exceedingly high hopes only to fall into last place in the NL West.
For all the attention that has been paid to some questionable offseason decisions by the Arizona front office, there’s no doubt that the organization was trying to push its chips in to create a winner. The view was that a talented young core was worthy of supplementation.
Apart from star slugger Paul Goldschmidt, Pollock was the most important element in that assessment. He entered spring camp fresh off of a gem of a campaign in which he hit .315/.367/.498, popped twenty long balls and swiped 39 bags, and drew rave reviews with his glove in center. That not only made him one of the game’s best overall performers in 2015, but pushed his earning power up (resulting in a two-year, $10.25MM deal to buy out two of his three arbitration seasons) and created hopes of a sustained breakout for the season yet to come.
While the D-Backs’ chances at the postseason were more average than great to begin with, Pollock’s fractured elbow — which occurred just before the start of the season — dealt them a severe blow. Making things even worse, the team had dealt away its best remaining outfield defender (Ender Inciarte) in the deal to acquire Shelby Miller, stripping the team of a clear replacement up the middle.
The injury came with greater-than-usual long-term complications, too. Pollock previously missed an entire season of minor league action after fracturing his growth plate in the same elbow, and initial reports of his new injury suggested there was no known timeline for his return.
As it turns out, Pollock has seemingly fared somewhat better than might have been feared. He will be able to return for about five weeks of action and, so long as all goes well, enter spring at full speed. If his .433/.541/.733 slash line on his rehab assignment is any indication, Pollock will have no trouble picking up where he left off, though it remains to be seen whether the injury will have lasting effects.
Tony La Russa Defends Shelby Miller Trade
A necessary search for quality pitching drove the Diamondbacks’ offseason acquisition of right-hander Shelby Miller, club chief baseball officer Tony La Russa said in defending the swap in comments to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While the Arizona front office has obviously discussed that highly-scrutinized deal before, its ongoing relevance is heightened by recent rumblings of change in the baseball operations department.
Amidst reports of embarrassing missteps, Arizona’s upper management hasn’t yet committed to retaining La Russa, GM Dave Stewart, or other top baseball ops personnel. And a more recent report says that the ownership group has nixed several significant would-be actions by La Russa and company in recent weeks, suggesting at least some lack of alignment in the organization’s baseball decisionmaking.
The Miller deal, which followed the team’s out-of-nowhere signing of Zack Greinke, is Exhibit A in the detractors’ case against La Russa and Stewart. It is a powerful piece of evidence, because Arizona not only gave up solid and controllable MLB regular — Ender Inciarte — but parted with a quality pitching prospect in Aaron Blair and the just-drafted top overall pick in Dansby Swanson. In return, the D-Backs received a pitcher who didn’t really seem worth that package at the time, and who has gone on to suffer through an unimaginably bad 2016 season.
Because a transaction of that magnitude could end up altering a franchise’s trajectory, its success or failure carries significant weight in assessing front office performance. In that context, La Russa and Stewart have recently defended the swap — among other moves — as pressure mounts. The D-Backs currently hold the second-worst record in the National League, leading only the Braves — who are, of course, the rebuilding organization that sent Miller to Arizona.
Latest On Padres’ Jon Jay
AUGUST 21: The bone in Jay’s forearm has fully healed and he could return by the first week of September, Padres manager Andy Green said Sunday (Twitter link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).
AUGUST 16, 10:06pm: Jay’s imaging results were clean, Lin adds on Twitter, but he still needs to regain sufficient flexibility to move toward a return. It is still possible he could be back by the first week of September, per the report.
8:36pm: Padres outfielder Jon Jay didn’t receive the news he hoped for when his fractured right forearm was examined today, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. When he was placed on the DL, the hope was that Jay might be back by this point. But after a CT scan and consultation, Jay was not cleared to hit, making mid-September a more realistic target for his return.
While a slight delay in a rehab timeline for a player on an out-of-contention team isn’t generally of much transactional relevance, Jay’s situation is somewhat different. The Padres have been perhaps the most aggressive seller in baseball, and Jay had looked like a solid trade asset — and a nice target for buyers to pursue.
Over his 291 plate appearances on the year, the left-handed-hitting Jay owns a .296/.345/.407 batting line that checks in just above league average. With a solid glove that plays in center, that makes him a useful piece for the right club.
Because he’s now facing continued uncertainty, teams probably won’t be willing to put in a claim on Jay with just over $1.75MM left on his salary. If he clears waivers, he can be dealt freely, but teams may not be willing to give up much of anything when Jay hasn’t even begun swinging the bat. Once the calendar flips to September, though, an acquiring team wouldn’t be able to utilize him on a post-season roster.
Looking beyond the trade market, the downgraded prognosis also represents a blow to Jay’s efforts to boost his free agent stock. The 31-year-old had been on track to draw solid interest as a player who could start or represent a high-quality fourth outfielder. He may still be able to push for a multi-year deal, but without a month or more to lay down more plate appearances after the injury, his market standing will likely be somewhat tamped down.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Justin Turner
At one point this year, the magic seemed to have worn off for Justin Turner. Coming off of significant offseason knee surgery, Turner failed to crack a .700 OPS in either of the first two months of the season.
That has all changed, though, as the well-bearded redhead flipped the switch in mid-June and hasn’t looked back. Despite the tepid start, Turner has run his batting line all the way up to .278/.345/.516, good for a composite 130 wRC+ that falls just shy of the big-time numbers he produced in each of the last two seasons.
Turner’s stunning emergence in Los Angeles has been well-documented. At this point, it seems hard to argue with the fact that the 31-year-old is simply one of the league’s better hitters. In some ways, in fact, he is improving. While maintaining his low-strikeout approach, Turner has steadily enhanced his power. While his 2014 breakout was fueled in part by a .404 BABIP, he hit only seven home runs. Through 464 plate appearances in the current campaign, Turner has already left the yard 23 times and owns a .237 isolated slugging mark that sits just ahead of players like Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Robinson Cano on the league leaderboard.
The increase in home runs corresponds both to a jump up in Turner’s flyball rate (now 43.3%) and HR/FB rate (15.5%), and is supported by a 39.5% hard-hit ball rate. Meanwhile, over the last two years, Turner has made soft contact on only about a dozen out of one hundred balls he puts in play. Those figures put him among the twenty best makers of contact in the game this season, and Turner’s overall offensive productivity also sits comfortably within the top twenty dating back to the start of his tenure in Los Angeles.
That’s impressive enough on its own, but Turner also rates as a high-quality defender. He has consistently drawn above-average marks from Defensive Runs Saved, and UZR has gone from rating him as slightly above average to valuing him as a top-quality gloveman at the hot corner in 2016. A second baseman earlier in his career, Turner could conceivably move around the diamond with another organization, though given his injury history and strong performance at third it seems most likely he’ll stay there.
Really, at this point, questions about Turner’s knee, his relatively advanced age, and a near-certain qualifying offer are really the only limitations on his market. Microfracture surgery is no small thing, and it seems at least that the procedure had some impact on his slow start this year. While his performance over the last two months seemingly quells any near-term concerns, teams weighing multi-year commitments will certainly take a close look at the odds of a recurring problem.
There will be some other quality options available to teams pursuing help at third base. Luis Valbuena, Martin Prado and David Freese are all enjoying fine seasons, and could certainly stake a claim to signing on for everyday roles. Still, it’s hard to argue that any approach Turner, who has clearly been the superior player not only this year but over the last three campaigns.
In terms of contract expectations, the older Ben Zobrist achieved four years and $56MM last year despite carrying a somewhat less impressive immediate track record — both at the plate and in the field. Even Chase Headley achieved a fourth year, taking home a total $52MM commitment, though he was a year younger. While the Daniel Murphy contract, three years and $37.5MM, sets an even lower price (albeit for a second baseman), his big second half of 2015 hadn’t yet been validated by the monster season he is currently having and the glove wasn’t nearly the asset that Turner’s is.
On the high side, the signings of Adrian Beltre (5/$80MM) and Pablo Sandoval (5/$95MM) may establish the upper limits of what Turner could seek. The latter was significantly younger when he signed, and probably represents an unrealistic price point. But the Beltre contract may be more relevant than it seems at first glance. He was entering his age-32 season at the time, just like Turner will be, and was coming off of the same type of season that Turner has now turned in for three years running. While Beltre’s glove gave him a higher floor, his immediate offensive history was actually quite a bit less impressive than Turner’s has been.
Precisely what kind of deal Turner will be able to command will still depend upon how his season ends, along with a whole host of other factors that are largely unknown at this point. And the Dodgers could yet decide to make a last-minute effort at an extension, though we’ve really heard nothing to suggest that’s likely. Regardless of how things proceed from here, it’s clear that Turner has more than made up for the value dip he experienced earlier this year. His stock is firmly on the rise as the open market nears.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels Expect Mike Scioscia To Manage In 2017
Angels GM Billy Eppler and owner Arte Moreno both suggested today that the organization expects to retain manager Mike Scioscia for the 2017 season, with reporting via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. (Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball also reported earlier this week that Scioscia’s job was safe.) Though neither made any firm statements in either direction, the pair of key figures expressed satisfaction with Scioscia’s work in the midst of a disappointing 2016 season.
Now in his 17th year in charge of the Halos dugout, Scioscia has overseen a team that currently owns the lowest winning percentage in any of his seasons as the skipper. The team did post a winning record last year, and ran up 98 wins two years ago, so it isn’t as if there hasn’t been recent success. And Scioscia owns an overall record of 1,467 wins against 1,246 losses.
“I have no reason to believe Mike wouldn’t be here managing our team next season,” said Eppler. “I think he’s done a great job. He’s dealt with multiple plates of adversity and handled them with energy and passion. He’s kept guys optimistic, driven, and I think that’s the mark of a good leader.”
Certainly, the poor results this year have deeper-seated roots than any errors in running the ballclub on a day-to-day basis. The organization’s farm system is stagnant and the team has a lot of unproductive money on its books — though it does employ the best player in baseball, Mike Trout, under favorable contract terms. Injuries have also played a major role in 2016, sapping the Angels of several top starters.
Moreno focused on those unavailable hurlers in his assessment, noting that “it’s pretty hard to win when you have no pitching.” He still seems confident in his long-time manager, who is still under contract for two more campaigns under his massive, ten-year extension.
“I’m not going to say anything [definitive] because I haven’t sat down with Billy [Eppler] or Mike, but I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be [back],” said Moreno. “… He has a contract. My expectation is he will be here, but I haven’t sat down with him.”
The Angels owner went on to say that he still thinks the current roster core is primed for contention in the near-term. “My belief is with a few moves, we can be highly competitive,” he said. Of course, the missing arms will need to come from somewhere, and Moreno observed that “there’s really not a lot of free agent pitching” to be had this winter. Whether or not Scioscia ultimately comes back for yet another campaign, Los Angeles obviously has its work cut out in revamping the roster this winter.
Diamondbacks Still Weighing Front Office Decisions
With contract decisions fast approaching on chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, GM Dave Stewart, and VP of baseball operations DeJon Watson, the Diamondbacks have yet to make a final call on their front office moving forward, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports.
The contracts originally signed by the three top members of the organization’s baseball decisionmaking structure are all nearly due for a decision. La Russa’s runs out at the end of the year, while Stewart and Watson both have deals that include options which must be exercised
“Nothing’s been decided. It will be an evaluation,” said club president Derrick Hall. He did speak positively of the dedication and attitude of his top baseball executives, but had to admit that “it hasn’t gone well” this year for the Snakes.
Indeed, managing general partner Ken Kendrick is understandably said to be rather unhappy with the way things have played out in 2016. It’s hard to see how he’d feel otherwise with the team buried in last place after an offseason in which it spent huge money on aging-but-excellent hurler Zack Greinke and parted with a major haul of young talent to acquire foundering righty Shelby Miller.
Though there are whispers (see here and here) that skipper Chip Hale could be in danger of losing his job, it seems hard to lay too much of the blame at his feet. That’s true to some extent of the front office personnel, too — the loss of A.J. Pollock crippled the team before the season even started, for instance — but the D-Backs’ roster construction efforts are ripe for second-guessing. Indeed, the underlying decisionmaking process has come under fire since the very inception of the La Russa/Stewart regime, with the chorus of criticism only growing louder of late.
Most notably, ESPN.com’s Keith Law recently offered a withering assessment of the front office’s work since taking charge. Among other things, he reports that the D-Backs were entirely unaware of the way the international signing rules work when they inked Yoan Lopez (while also mis-assessing his talent and market value). Other embarrassing episodes include an apparent attempt by Stewart to engineer a trade that wasn’t permissible under MLB rules and a glaring mismanagement of last year’s draft bonus pool allotment. You’ll want to read the entire piece for a full understanding of the wide-ranging critique.
Stewart has pushed back against the critics, telling Heyman that he thinks he has performed well in his two seasons at the helm. “We’ve done a pretty good job of putting players in our system,” says Stewart. “When we came in the major-league team was not very good and the minor-league system was not very good.” Even while defending his record, Stewart did insist that he isn’t focused at all on his own contract situation; to the contrary, he says he isn’t even aware of when the option is due to be decided upon.
That Stewart evidently isn’t concerned with the timeline for assessing his future may actually coincide with upper management’s own preferences for dealing with their baseball operations department. “Our preference is to wait until the end of the year, if we can,” Hall said of making a final call on whether to retain some or all of the trio. It’s not immediately clear how that would occur, but presumably Arizona could simply decline to pick up the options and then attempt to work out new contracts if the decision was made to retain Stewart and/or Watson.
Indians Outright Tyler Olson
Here are today’s minor moves:
- The Indians announced that lefty Tyler Olson has been outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. Olson, 26, will go on the minor league DL with an undisclosed illness as he heads out of DFA limbo. The Indians are the third team he has played for this season. Olson received one appearance at the major league level with the Yankees but has pitched mostly at the highest level of the minors, also spending time in the Royals organization. Things haven’t gone terribly well there, as Olson owns a 5.27 ERA with 6.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 over 41 innings on the year.