Poll: Best One-Year Free Agent Signing
There are a variety of factors that can lead players — even those good enough to command many millions of guaranteed dollars — to sign one-year deals as free agents, ranging from age to the need to prove health or ability before returning to the market in search of a longer contract. From a team’s perspective, it can be beneficial to promise a higher single-season payout rather than limiting roster flexibility and buying up post-prime seasons with a multi-year pact.
With most of the season in the books, it seemed like an opportune time to look back at those one-year pacts that have seemingly worked out. The good news for these players, of course, is that they enjoyed solid platform deals to work off of in their next foray onto the open market.
Excluding the many minor league pacts, I’ve come up with a list of nominees out of the dozens of one-year deals agreed upon last winter. So, which of these deals (listed from cheapest to most expensive) represents the best value for the team that reached it?
- Nori Aoki, Giants ($4.7MM + option): Before dealing with an unfortunate concussion issue, Aoki seemed well on his way to representing one of the steals of last year’s free agent market, and there’s an argument to be made that he still is just that — especially when you factor in the reasonable option for next year.
- Asdrubal Cabrera, Rays ($7.5MM): Checking in with a slightly-above-average .264/.317/.420 batting line and solid defensive and baserunning numbers, Cabrera has been worth over two wins above replacement in less than 500 plate appearances. That’s hard to find for a reasonable price on the open market.
- Colby Rasmus, Astros ($8MM): Rasmus has been a solid, two-win player for Houston in just over 400 plate appearances, representing nice value for the investment. He’s been much the same player he was last year, but the ‘Stros did well to get his youth, power, and upside for such a meager commitment.
- A.J. Burnett, Pirates ($8.5MM): After an ill-fated swing south to Philadelphia, Burnett returned triumphantly to Pittsburgh this year. Though he lost some time with a DL stint, the veteran righty has still racked up 140 1/3 frames of 3.14 ERA ball.
- Brett Anderson, Dodgers ($10MM): Los Angeles rolled the dice on the talented lefty, and it has paid off handsomely. Though his peripherals are less compelling — Anderson only rates out at 1.6 fWAR — he’s contributed 158 innings of 3.36 ERA pitching.
Best One-Year Free Agent Deal?
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A.J. Burnett 40% (2,157)
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Nori Aoki 20% (1,110)
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Brett Anderson 19% (1,051)
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Colby Rasmus 12% (676)
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Asdrubal Cabrera 8% (453)
Total votes: 5,447
NL East Notes: Jennings, Gillick, Fernandez, Aardsma
Having just begun to look for a new baseball operations leader, the Phillies have at least some interest in Marlins manager (and recent GM) Dan Jennings, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports (Twitter links). Philadelphia has yet to request permission to interview Jennings, who is not only still manning the dugout in Miami but reportedly has an offer on the table to step back into the GM role there. It’s a complicated situation already, but interest from the Phillies, who have quite an appealing GM opportunity up for grabs, would be an interesting wild card.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- Outgoing Phillies president Pat Gillick says he’s not sure what he’ll pursue next, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. “At this point, I haven’t even thought about it,” said the long-time, 78-year-old executive. Gillick also acknowledged that he was not surprised that his replacement, Andy MacPhail, had decided to find a new GM rather than keeping Ruben Amaro Jr. “I don’t think … the public would really accept that,” said Gillick, who has long been a supporter of the deposed Amaro. “That wasn’t the reason the decision was made, but certainly the fans and the public play into every organization in the sports industry.”
- The Marlins hope to avoid the recent Matt Harvey controversy with their own ace, Jose Fernandez, as Spencer writes. Both pitchers, of course, are in their first seasons back from Tommy John surgery. Fernandez himself says he does not foresee any difficulties in working out an approach before the season, noting that he expects the team will meet with his agent (Scott Boras, as with Harvey) and medical experts to arrive at an agreement. The young righty added that a plan was in place this year, had the Fish remained in contention, to help limit the strain on his recently-replaced UCL while maximizing his value to the club.
- The Braves recently designated and then released right-hander David Aardsma, and he has penned an interesting piece on the subject at Baseball Essential. We cover an awful lot of DFAs here, and it’s easy to forget that there is a person involved who faces a potentially life-changing impact. Aardsma walks through the process from the awkward moment of hitting DFA limbo through the battle to stay prepared for another opportunity. It’s a great read and well worth your time.
Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Cespedes, GM Openings, Offseason Decisions
The Mets expect that they’ll receive calls on righty Matt Harvey, but have no intentions of discounting his trade value based on the recent shutdown controversy, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Harvey is reportedly displeased with some statements from the front office, per Heyman, though it’s far from clear whether there will be any long-term ramifications from the flare-up.
That’s just one of many interesting notes in a column that is chock full of information. Here are some more notable items:
- Also in the news recently, of course, is outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who has thrived with the Mets and just tweaked his contract to make a re-signing possible. Heyman says that the movement on that front was generated by Cespedes’s side, with the team readily agreeing to the proposal. Steve Adams and I discussed this on Thursday’s edition of the MLBTR Podcast, generally agreeing that he’s unlikely to return despite that agreement given other needs and the presence of Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares, and Michael Cuddyer. But Heyman hears that New York is “expected to make a serious play” for the soon-to-be free agent. Certainly, that’s an important open market storyline to watch this fall and winter. Despite the presence of several other highly-regarded players on the coming market, Heyman says a deal of $175MM (or even more) for the Cuban star would not be surprising.
- The Red Sox‘ GM hiring appears to be wide open, with Heyman writing that Diamondbacks senior VP of baseball operations De Jon Watson presents one possibility from another organization and AGM Mike Hazen could be an internal option. Other names that have come up include the frequently-mentioned Frank Wren and Brewers VP of amateur scouting Ray Montgomery.
- There is a “prevailing belief” that Reds GM Walt Jocketty will keep his position, says Heyman, though manager Bryan Price seems somewhat more likely to lose his job after a rough season. On the other hand, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale did suggest today on Twitter that Jocketty could be shifted into an advisory role, with Cincinnati hiring a new general manager.
- Yankees GM Billy Eppler is seen as the favorite to take the GM position with the Angels, says Heyman. Rangers GM Thad Levine could also get a long look, per the report.
- The Phillies‘ GM position just opened, of course, and Heyman says it will be in high demand among young executives — not only because of Philadelphia’s resources, but because the new general manager could be handed fairly broad authority. Possible names have been filtering out since even before Ruben Amaro Jr. was let go, and Heyman lists Angels AGM Matt Klentak, Giants scouting director John Barr, Royals AGM J.J. Piccolo, and the aforementioned Levine as some of the possibilities.
- Fans calling for the Braves to replace manager Fredi Gonzalez may not get their wish, says Heyman. Gonzalez is “said to be in no jeopardy,” per the report.
- The Tigers have a lot of work to do under new GM Al Avila, and Heyman says their “winter wish list” includes an outfielder — possibly Cespedes, though he may be too expensive, along with two starters and several bullpen arms. Detroit expects to plunk down some cash in the offseason, he adds.
- It’s always seemed likely that the Blue Jays would pick up their $12MM option over veteran righty R.A. Dickey, and Heyman says that is highly likely as things stand. Toronto will also at least attempt to retain lefty David Price, who has obviously been outstanding (even by his lofty standards) since being acquired at the deadline.
- The Dodgers will likely extend lefty Brett Anderson a qualifying offer. The 27-year-old has been well worth the $10MM that Los Angeles paid him this year, putting up a 3.36 ERA over 158 innings — his highest tally since his rookie campaign way back in 2009. Given his age and the fact that he has a nice platform to work from, it would seem likely that Anderson will decline a QO (if extended), though he’ll face a crowded market.
- Padres president Mike Dee tells Heyman that the organization is frustrated, but has good relationships in its upper front office and is looking forward rather than looking back at last winter. San Diego will need to make a permanent decision with its field staff, and is said to be undecided on whether to retain interim skipper Pat Murphy.
- Meanwhile, the Padres are assessing “whether to tweak or completely retool” its roster. Interestingly, Melvin Upton has played well enough that he could end up with a regular role as a platoon partner in center alongside Travis Jankowski. San Diego will face a somewhat difficult decision on whether to make starter Ian Kennedy a qualifying offer, but it appears the organization is leaning towards doing so.
Mark Teixeira Out For Season With Fractured Leg
Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira will not return this season after tests showed that he has a fracture in his right shin, GM Brian Cashman told reporters including Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (via Twitter). It’s expected that he’ll require three months to recover, Jack Curry of the YES Network adds on Twitter, meaning that he should be ready to go for the spring.
The loss of the 35-year-old puts a dent in New York’s efforts to keep pace with the Blue Jays in the AL East. He had rebounded from two straight marginal seasons with an excellent .255/.357/.548 batting line and 31 home runs in 462 plate appearances. The switch hitter has been out since fouling a ball off of his shin on August 17th, but it seems the significance of the injury was only just detected.
Replacing that level of production is nearly impossible, of course, but 22-year-old Greg Bird has been solid in his first 94 big league plate appearances. Bird, who hits from the left side, owns a .241/.319/.458 slash with five long balls. He has been relied upon heavily in Teixeira’s absence, appearing in every single game since the veteran went down.
While Bird figures to hold down the position in the long run, assuming he can build upon a promising start to his major league career, the Yanks will no doubt give Teixeira every opportunity to retake the position next spring. Next year will be the last of the eight-year, $180MM deal he signed before the 2009 season. New York owes him $22.5MM for the 2016 campaign. Both players could conceivably share time in the field, with the other taking swings from the DH slot, though veterans Carlos Beltran and (especially) Alex Rodriguez factor heavily in that role.
Red Sox Claim Roman Mendez From Rangers
The Red Sox have claimed righty Roman Mendez off waivers from the Rangers, Boston announced (h/t to Tim Britton of the Providence Journal, on Twitter). A 40-man spot was cleared by placing Koji Uehara on the 60-day DL.
Mendez, 25, was designated by Texas earlier this month as part of the team’s September call-up plan. While he was able to put up 33 innings of 2.18 ERA pitching in his MLB debut last year, that success was not supported by the peripherals and he was knocked around in his brief big league action in 2015.
Now, Mendez will head back to Boston, which originally shipped him to Texas as part of the return for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Mendez has put up better strikeout-to-walk numbers in the minors , including 8.5 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 67 Triple-A innings, and the Red Sox will hope that he can make the final step in his development and become a big league contributor.
Scott Feldman Out For Season With Sprained Shoulder
The Astros have shut down righty Scott Feldman for the rest of the season, per a club announcement. Rather than trying to work back for the playoffs, the 32-year-old will “immediately begin a rehabilitation protocol that will extend through the offseason” in hopes that he’ll be ready to go for 2016.
Feldman left his last start, on September 1st, with shoulder discomfort. Initial reports were not terribly alarming, but the veteran struggled in a throwing session. It would seem that the team and the player were unable to identify a workable way for him to safely return this fall.
While this obviously represents disappointing news for all involved, Feldman’s contributions to the surprising ‘Stros won’t be forgotten. Since signing the three-year, $30MM deal that brought him to Houston before the 2014 season, Feldman has racked up 288 2/3 innings of 3.80 ERA pitching. While hardly dominant, that was just the kind of steady rotation work that the Astros sought when they signed him.
Things have changed quite a bit over Feldman’s tenure, of course. Most recently, the so-far-successful call-ups of youngsters Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez, in addition to trades for Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers, have both deepened and raised the ceiling of the rotation.
Houston will, it appears, focus on getting Feldman healthy for the final year of his contract. He figures to play an important stabilizing role on the 2016 club, especially if the team decides to rely heavily on its younger pitchers rather than pursuing veterans on the open market.
NL Notes: Juan C. Rodriguez, Cain, Giants, Winkler
Regular MLBTR readers will be familiar with the work of Juan C. Rodriguez, who covers the Marlins for the Sun-Sentinel. Juan has battled brain cancer for several years, undergoing surgeries and chemotherapy treatments. A campaign has been launched to help support him, as well as his wife and children, in this difficult time. Please take a moment to read the story and consider giving to provide a hand to the Rodriguez family.
With our very best wishes to Juan, let’s check in on the latest from the National League:
- Giants righty Matt Cain says he is working on correcting some mechanical issues as he continues to adjust to ongoing elbow issues, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. His new motion was making it easier for hitters to pick up his pitches, says Cain, who has been tagged for 36 earned runs in 52 2/3 big league innings this season. He’s still owed $47.5MM on his extension after this season, which covers two guaranteed campaigns and the buyout of a 2018 option.
- Whether or not the 30-year-old Cain returns to form will be a major factor in the Giants‘ ability to contend in the near term, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes. Manager Bruce Bochy says that he expects the veteran righty to return to logging a high number of quality innings. But even if that occurs, change is probably coming. Ryan Vogelsong will likely not be brought back, says Baggarly, and while Tim Lincecum may be, the club probably will not count on much from him. Also, of course, Tim Hudson has made clear that he’s retiring.
- Braves Rule 5 pick Daniel Winkler has been activated from the DL, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports (Twitter links). Atlanta took advantage of the fact that he was recovering from Tommy John surgery to pluck him from the Rockies. The team can now begin building up to the ninety active roster days required to gain Winkler’s rights moving forward. The 25-year-old had shown promise in the Colorado organiation, dominating the Double-A level in 2014 — with a 1.41 ERA and 9.1 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 70 innings — before suffering the UCL tear.
AL Notes: Scioscia, Angels, Orioles, Price
Reiterating what Angels manager Mike Scioscia recently said himself, club president John Carpino says that the skipper “will not be involved in the GM selection process,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. But he also acknowledged that a new hire won’t have full authority to chart the organization’s operating philosophies. Instead, per Carpino, that will be determined through a “collective effort,” which Shaikin says appears to be an implicit validation of the widely-held notion that the incoming GM will face some notable restrictions. Indeed, Scioscia expanded upon his recent comments regarding the need for philosophical harmony, which, he said, “encompasses, certainly, how you are going to recruit talent, the draft, free agents, international scouting, and the development process.”
- Answering some Angels fan questions, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez provides a look at some theoretical free agent targets. The Halos have rotation depth, but some within the organization believe a top-end arm would make sense, he says. If not, a significant corner outfielder — he addresses Yoenis Cespedes — could be under consideration.
- The collapse of the Orioles has been somewhat overshadowed by other divisional storylines, but has nevertheless been dramatic, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick explores. “It’s a snowball time of the year,” said manager Buck Showalter. “There’s so much positive and negative feeding frenzy this time of year, nothing is as good or bad as it seems.” There is immense uncertainty in Baltimore entering the offseason, and Crasnick sets the stage well for what figures to be an interesting winter.
- Blue Jays lefty David Price says he enjoyed his relationship with then-Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, but doesn’t envision being uniquely moved to sign with the Red Sox just because Dombrowski is now at the helm there, as John Tomase of WEEI.com reports. Price did note that he has found his time in Toronto thus far to be “pretty special.” While it’s not at all clear whether Boston will pursue the star lefty, Dombrowski is obviously a fan (having acquired him at last year’s trade deadline) and has indicated that the team intends to improve the top of its rotation.
Athletics Acquire Daniel Coulombe
The Athletics have acquired lefty Daniel Coulombe from the Dodgers, Los Angeles announced. Cash considerations will make up the return for the recently-designated pitcher.
Coulombe’s speedy ascent through the LA system hit something of snag this year, even as he earned his second consecutive five-appearance big league cameo. After having maintained double-digit strikeout rates over his first three seasons as a professional, Coulombe retired just 8.9 per nine via strikeout (against 5.2 BB/9) in his 41 1/3 Triple-A frames.
Of course, Coulombe had never before faced hitting at the highest level of the minors, as he skipped that level entirely when he earned his first big league promotion late in 2014. Oakland will take a chance on harnessing that previously-demonstrated swing-and-miss upside.
Athletics Extend Bob Melvin Through 2018
5:40pm: The Athletics have announced a two-year extension for Melvin that runs through the 2018 season. In a statement, Melvin said that he is “fully committed to this team, this organization, and this fan base.”
1:10pm: The Athletics will hold a press conference this afternoon in order to announce an extension for skipper Bob Melvin, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier in the year. Slusser and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com both say (Twitter links) that Melvin’s new deal will be made official today, though its duration and terms remain unreported.
As Slusser noted in the earlier report, and reiterates today, Oakland is also likely to promote Billy Beane to the president-level position while handing the general manager’s seat to current AGM David Forst. It is not yet clear precisely how those long-time colleagues will change their everyday duties, or whether and when the move will be consummated.
The timing may seem curious at first glance, given that the team is mired in last place and Melvin was already under contract through next season. But he’s long been viewed as a top-quality skipper by the organization, and the overall results have been strong. Since taking the reins in 2012, Melvin has led the club to two AL West crowns and one Wild Card berth.
The A’s, of course, are well known for their crafty roster-building and player-usage approaches, and Melvin has proven well-suited to the organization’s philosophies. As the Chronicle’s Bruce Jenkins wrote in an interesting profile last year, Melvin blends more traditional approaches to managing (“drill-sergeant qualities”) with an understanding of and comfort with modern analytics.
Speaking at the time of Beane, Melvin described an interesting dynamic that has helped the club to thrive in recent seasons despite a perpetually low payroll and frequent roster turnover. “The thing about Billy is that he allows debate,” Melvin said. “Spirited debate. I don’t think he wants you to agree with him all the time. There’s a system in place here, something we’ve all bought into, but on a day-to-day basis, there can be disagreements. Sometimes it might get a little heated, but I appreciate that I have a voice in it.”