Free Agent Stock Watch: Darren O’Day
Orioles righty Darren O’Day sports one of the most interesting deliveries in all of baseball. His submarine approach is much more than a novelty, however, and the reliever will hit the open market this winter as one of the best late-inning arms available.
Since coming to Baltimore before the 2012 season by way of a waiver claim, O’Day ranks eighth among all MLB relievers with a cumulative 1.97 ERA over 197 2/3 innings. And while he isn’t a particular stand-out in terms of FIP-based wins above replacement (more on that below), the 32-year-old has tallied the fourth-most bullpen-based RA/9 WAR in that span.
This season, in many ways, has been O’Day’s best, cementing his status as a lock-down reliever. He owns a double-digit strikeout rate (11.1 K/9) for the first time ever and has averaged just 2.0 walks per nine innings. He carries a career-low 1.69 (just a shade under last year’s results) and a personal-best 2.38 SIERA.
While the SIERA metric has historically viewed O’Day as a consistent sub-3.00 performer, however, O’Day’s run prevention excellence has not always been fully backed by other ERA estimators. FIP and xFIP have both viewed O’Day as a low-to-mid 3.00 ERA pitcher, though he’s posted his best-ever numbers (2.73 and 3.07, respectively) in each this year.
Whichever analytical tool one prefers, at some point, it’s hard to discount the bottom-line results, particularly from a pitcher who utilizes such a unique style. O’Day has allowed a meager .254 batting average on balls in play throughout his career while carrying a hard-hit ball rate that falls below league average — testament to the difficulty opposing hitters have in squaring him up.
To be sure, O’Day has also benefited from a high 84.5% strand rate over his career, which is roughly ten points higher than league average. O’Day is not a high-groundball pitcher and does not generate a ton of double plays. His strikeout capabilities and low WHIP help explain that number, as does the fact that he’s typically permitted low stolen base totals. But there are other factors that have enabled him to generate results that somewhat exceed his own contributions. In particular, O’Day has been backed by an excellent defensive unit in Baltimore.
Then there’s the matter of platoon splits. O’Day has been less useful against lefties, both this season and throughout his career. Batters with the platoon advantage own a .233/.297/.417 total slash line against him — hardly overwhelming numbers, but certainly more damaging than the scant .192/.262/.282 line put up by opposing right-handed hitters. That is neither unique nor surprising, of course, and it hasn’t prevented the veteran from performing as a regular eighth-inning set-up man.
Age is always a factor with free agents, of course, and O’Day is entering his age-33 campaign. But he has never and will never be a pitcher that relies on velocity, and he still works in the same range (87 mph or so) with his fastball that he always has. O’Day’s four-seam/sinker/slider mix has remained consistent in terms of speed and usage over his time in Baltimore and is just as effective as ever. Other soft-tossing side-armers — the nearly-36-year-old Brad Ziegler is a current example — have been able to maintain their run prevention abilities into their mid and late thirties.
Looking at recent free agent comps, it’s hard to ignore Pat Neshek, who parlayed a dominant 2014 season into two years and $12.5MM (while handing over a variable-value club option for another year). But while he too is a sidearming righty, Neshek looks more like a lower-end target. Neshek was not only one year older but also lacked the extensive track record compiled by O’Day in recent seasons.
Another Astros signee, Luke Gregerson, arguably makes for a more accurate comparison. The righty turned 31 in the first year of his three-year, $18.5MM pact (with incentive escalators), so he was a fair bit younger. But his run of excellence before hitting the market is a closer match for O’Day, who should have a good chance of getting a third guaranteed year at or near the price tag achieved by Gregerson.
Certainly, one can envision O’Day’s representatives at Beverly Hills Sports Council will be looking for at least that to start out, as many relievers have achieved three-year deals in recent years. For example, fellow side-armer Joe Smith inked a three-year, $15.75MM pact with the Angels prior to the 2014 campaign, and O’Day’s numbers — both in his contract year and in the multi-year platform leading up to free agency — trump those of Smith. That deal will also be two years old this winter, and the market for relievers arguably took a step forward last offseason.
Speaking of the market for relievers, O’Day will also be aided by the fact that this coming winter’s market does not include quite the array of top-of-the-line arms that was present last year. His primary competition in terms of right-handed relievers will come from players like Tyler Clippard, Joakim Soria, and possibly Joaquin Benoit (if his option is not exercised). All have arguments in their favor as high-end arms, but none are at the level of David Robertson or Andrew Miller, and factors like injuries, age, uneven results, and/or heavy usage will impact their appeal.
However one ranks O’Day among that group, it’s a nice market to enter for him to enter. And with an outstanding 2015 season nearing a close, he’s well-situated to cash in.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reverse Standings At MLBTR
As the post-season chase takes shape, it’s time again to think about the placement of the teams that are falling out of the picture. While those in the mix for pole draft position sit at or near the bottom of their respective divisions, they stand to cash in with lofty selections in next year’s draft. This season’s Reverse Standings will be updated as results come in, and can always be accessed via the right-side toolbar (under “MLBTR Features”) at MLBTradeRumors.com.
Why “reverse standings”? Draft order is determined by simple reference to win-loss record at the end of the season, worst to first. Any ties are broken by awarding the higher pick to the team that had the lesser winning percentage in the prior season. (While compensation picks are given to teams that fail to sign players from the previous draft, at one slot below the selection, that rule won’t impact things this time around since all of the 2015 first rounders are under contract.)
The other important thing to note, of course, is the concept of protected picks. While a team that signs a free agent who declined a qualifying offer sacrifices its highest draft choice, teams awarded top-ten selections are not required to part with those picks to sign such a player. Instead, those clubs would give up their next-highest pick in the event that they sign a QO-rejecting free agent. In the reverse standings linked above, protected selections are denoted with a green check mark.
As things stand entering today’s action, the Braves are right on the heels of the Phillies for the first overall choice in the 2016 draft. Landing the top overall pick not only gives a team a chance to take any player available, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler explained yesterday (Twitter links), but provides that club with a massive bonus pool and the ability to “control the leverage of the entire draft” by reaching arrangements with other top players that can be selected with later picks.
The Astros have demonstrated that approach several times in recent years. Back in 2012, they took Carlos Correa over Byron Buxton in part to help add Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz (not to mention players like Brett Phillips and Preston Tucker). And last year, utilizing a pair of top-five selections, the club was able to score top-ten talent Daz Cameron in the 37th overall slot.
Notably, also, several teams in the “race” for top draft picks already have — or could obtain by trade — competitive balance selections that would open more slot money and an additional early selection. Those choices, which take place after the first round (including its qualifying offer-compensation component), were determined by lottery. The Reds, A’s, Rockies, D’backs, Marlins and Pirates received the six Round A picks this year, in that order, and all but Pittsburgh also stand to pick up top-ten selections if the current reverse standings hold.
Minor MLB Transactions: 9/9/15
Here are today’s minor moves:
- The Yankees announced that outfielder Tyler Austin has been outrighted to Double-A. Recently designated for assignment, the 24-year-old has not progressed as hoped since rating as a top-100 prospect entering the 2013 season. Austin earned his first crack at the Triple-A level this year, but slashed just .235/.309/.311 with four home runs and eight stolen bases over 299 plate appearances.
Cardinals Activate Matt Adams, Designate Nick Greenwood
The Cardinals have announced the activation of first baseman Matt Adams, who has missed a lengthy stretch with a quadriceps injury. To clear 40-man space, the club designated left-hander Nick Greenwood for assignment.
Adams, 27, last saw action on May 26th. He was hitting just .243/.281/.375 on the season at that point, a disappointing drop-off from the well-above-average batting lines he had put up over the prior two seasons. Adams will look to get back on track late in the year, both to reestablish himself in the team’s regular mix and to bolster his upcoming, first-time arbitration case.
In his absence, the Cardinals added fellow left-handed power hitter Brandon Moss, who has hit well since coming to St. Louis. The club also promoted top prospect Stephen Piscotty, a righty, who has seen some action at first. Both Moss and, in particular, Piscotty are also capable of playing the corner outfield. All told, the club has some flexibility both to bring Adams back slowly and to play matchups in the post-season.
Greenwood, 27, has thrown 36 big league innings for the Cards, including just one appearance this year in which he did not record an out. The southpaw has worked both as a starter and a reliever in the minors. After a solid campaign throwing mostly from the pen last season, he has scuffled to a 5.79 ERA in 129 Triple-A frames on the year in 2015, with 4.2 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9.
Front Office Notes: Jennings, Brooks, Eppler, Nationals
Dan Jennings has a standing offer from the Marlins to return to the GM seat, but has not yet informed the team whether he will accept, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. Miami seemingly expects that Jennings will slot back in at that role, unless he is able to land a job elsewhere with more conclusive decisionmaking authority. As the Fish continue their front office maneuvering, the club has hired Marc DelPiano as VP of player development, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter.
Here’s more on some front office and managerial situations around the league …
- The Brewers are set to interview Pirates director of player personnel Tyrone Brooks for the open GM position in Milwaukee, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. We have heard some chatter about possible names to watch for the Brewers, but it appears that Brooks is the first reported candidate to receive an interview. Brooks has held his current role in Pittsburgh for about four years, overseeing an impressive delivery of young talent onto the big league roster. He gave an interesting interview with MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch back when he received that promotion, acknowledging at the time that he ultimately hoped to keep climbing the front office ladder.
- Both the Mariners and Angels have been given permission to interview Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Eppler has long been considered a top general manager candidate, and interviewed with several teams in the past, so it’s no surprise to hear his name linked to multiple openings.
- The Nationals have dropped two straight to the Mets in hard-to-believe fashion, squandering an opportunity to re-start the division race in the season’s final weeks. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post encapsulates the situation well in his piece on the frustrating turn of events. Despite the obvious cause for disappointment, GM Mike Rizzo says there is no consideration to making a late-season change at manager. “Matt Williams is our manager,” said Rizzo, “and he’s going to lead us through this stretch. I’ve always supported him. We’re not going to talk about 2016 while 2015 is ongoing.” Rizzo himself is not believed to have any job security issues, says Svrluga, though he adds that the team’s ownership can be “opaque” in its decisionmaking.
Tim Hudson Says He’ll Retire After The Season
Giants righty Tim Hudson says he’s hanging up his cleats after the season, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Previously, the 40-year-old had indicated that he was likely to retire, but it now appears he has made up his mind.
“This is definitely my last year, for sure,” said the veteran. “It’s the right thing to do. It’s the right time for me and my family.”
This season hasn’t been quite the send-off that Hudson might have hoped for (though he had quite a memorable outing last night). He has missed time due to injury and is carrying an ERA over four per nine for just the third time in 17 seasons.
But Hudson is still remarkably useful given his age. He has continued to generate a groundball rate of over 50% and would undoubtedly draw plenty of interest as a free agent were he to consider signing.
Still, it’s not terribly surprising to hear that Hudson has decided to call it quits. He has made clear throughout the year that things were likely headed in that direction. And as he and his wife discussed in the above-linked piece, via Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, a variety of considerations beyond pitching capability have driven the decision.
We’ll have to wait until the end of the year to make a final tally of Hudson’s overall body of work, but needless to say, it will be impressive. Hudson broke into the league with the Athletics back in 1999, spent nine years with the Braves, and capped it off in San Francisco. All told, he has racked up over 3,000 innings with a lifetime earned run average of less than 3.50 runs per nine innings.
Those results came mostly via a sterling 58.0% career groundball rate rather than dominant strikeout tallies. In fact, Hudson has averaged only 6.0 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 in his career. He nevertheless managed to compile over fifty wins above replacement over his career as a consistent, quality, and durable rotation piece.
That body of work is probably not enough to get him into Cooperstown, but Hudson undoubtedly rates as one of the best pitchers of his era.
Mets, Cespedes Modify Contract Release Clause
3:57pm: Cespedes’ agents (he is represented by Roc Nation/CAA Sports) were the ones to initiate discussions about amending the clause, tweets Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. As she rightly points out, having his current club involved in offseason bidding can only serve to increase Cespedes’ ultimate price tag.
3:13pm: The Mets have agreed with recently-acquired outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to a modification of the language in his contract that will remove a previous barrier to the team’s ability to re-sign him as a free agent, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.
Previously, the contract called for the employing team (originally, the Athletics) to release him at the expiration of the contract. That would have made Cespedes ineligible for a qualifying offer and would have left his current team with just five days to reach a new agreement upon completion of the World Series. Following that five-day window, the Mets would’ve been ineligible to sign Cespedes until May 15, 2016 under the rules of the collective bargaining agreement. (Put concisely, teams cannot re-sign players they released to a Major League deal until the following May.) In that scenario, Cespedes would not have been able to test his market before negotiating with the Mets, making an agreement difficult to work out.
Under the new agreement, Cespedes will be free to sign with the Mets at any point in the offseason, just as he would any other team. It provides him another possible suitor while leaving the team free to re-sign him on the open market.
While the qualifying offer issue may have posed a barrier to reaching such an arrangement between Cespedes and his most recent team, the Tigers, that is no longer an issue. Because Cespedes was traded in mid-season, the Mets are unable to utilize that rule regardless.
In other words, as things stood, the modification appears to be a win-win for player and team. While neither is any more obligated to the other than was the case previously, it is now certainly feasible for New York to pursue a long-term deal with a player who has delivered outstanding results since coming over at the deadline.
Marlins Claim Tommy Medica
The Marlins have claimed first baseman/outfielder Tommy Medica off waivers from the Padres, Miami announced. Medica will not immediately report to the organization, per the announcement.
Also announced today by the Marlins were the recall of righty Scott McGough and the transfer of starter Henderson Alvarez to the 60-day DL.
Medica, 27, is a right-handed hitter who has seen 338 career plate appearances at the major league level. He’s slashed .246/.308/.417 in those chances, spread over 2013-14, with 12 home runs and six stolen bases.
After several big seasons in the minors, Medica has fallen off since moving up to the Triple-A level. This year, he owns a .259/.314/.364 batting line with just five long balls in 363 plate appearances. Medica has, however, hit lefties well; in theory, then, he could be part of an affordable platoon situation at first base next year alongside the left-handed-hitting Justin Bour.
Tigers Designate Daniel Fields For Assignment
The Tigers have designated outfielder Daniel Fields for assignment, Chris Iott of MLive.com reports. His 40-man spot will go to infielder Josh Wilson, who will be activated.
Fields, 24, reached the big leagues and recorded his first hit this year, but saw just one game of action. He’s spent most of his time at the Triple-A level over the past two seasons, slashing .225/.312/.358 in 825 plate appearances. Though not much of a power source, Fields has swiped 25 bags in that span.
Detroit drafted Fields in the sixth round back in 2009, drawing the high schooler to the professional ranks with a $1.625MM bonus. While he’s shown flashes at times, including a big 2013 season at Double-A (.284/.356/.435 with 24 steals), Fields has yet to show that he can hit consistently at the highest level of the minors.
Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds
As we’ve already done with the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, we’re going through those clubs whose primary attention has turned to setting up for future seasons to identify their three most pressing strategic needs. Up today: the Reds.
Cincinnati is mired in last place in a hyper-competitive NL Central, looking up (along with the Brewers) at three teams that seem primed to remain high-quality outfits for years to come. With Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Marlon Byrd already shipped out over the summer, what are the key areas for the Reds to focus on over the coming months?
1. Maximize the value of Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is reasonably young (27), durable, and utterly dominant (16.0 K/9 vs. 4.6 BB/9 with a 1.73 ERA on the year). He’s one of the few relievers in all of baseball that looks like a relatively sure thing to provide serious impact to a contender. And the Reds, despite some signs of promise around the diamond, seem a poor bet to leapfrog the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs (or a host of theoretical non-divisional Wild Card competitors) to make a serious run at the postseason next year.
It’s hard to trade an exciting and popular player whose job is to ensure that your club wins the games it should by locking down the ninth in spectacular fashion. But those are the kinds of decisions that teams — especially those with limited payroll flexibility, like Cincinnati — need to make to set themselves up for future success. The Braves did it last year with Craig Kimbrel, and the case for a trade is even stronger here given that Chapman will hit free agency after 2016.
It’s arguable that the Reds should have taken the best offer at this year’s deadline, when contenders were lining up for the Cuban Missile, but that opportunity has passed. GM Walt Jocketty and his staff now need to determine whether to shop Chapman this winter or instead to roll the dice on waiting for next year’s trade deadline.
2. Free up payroll space. When the Braves moved Kimbrel, they did so in large part to rid themselves of the tens of millions owed to Melvin Upton. The team also managed to add a useful pitching prospect and hit the lottery on salary-balancing throw-in Cameron Maybin, but the deal was primarily motivated by payroll considerations. Cincinnati has its share of long-term commitments, too, and while some look better than others, the club would do well to begin clearing the books for the future — possibly by utilizing some creative packaging arrangements.
Looking forward, the Reds’ priciest asset is star first baseman Joey Votto, the franchise face who has turned back into himself in 2015. He’s not at all likely to be moved, though perhaps Cincinnati should be open to it if blown away by an offer. But big dollars are also promised to second baseman Brandon Phillips ($27MM over two years) and righty Homer Bailey ($86MM over four years, plus a mutual option buyout). And then there’s outfielder Jay Bruce, who will earn $12.5MM next year and comes with a $13MM club option for 2017, and third baseman Todd Frazier, who is promised $7.5MM for 2016 and will presumably line up for another nice arbitration increase in his final season of eligibility. Add in commitments to younger players like Devin Mesoraco and Raisel Iglesias, and the organization has a rather large portion of its future spending capacity already committed to a relatively small number of players.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained yesterday, parting with Phillips may be the place to start. He has played well this year and could be replaced by Eugenio Suarez, who would pair up the middle with a recovering Zach Cozart. It’s largely inconceivable that the team will be able to do anything with Bailey until he’s had a chance to return to health, but that could be a goal as time goes on. The more difficult questions arise with regards to Bruce and Frazier, both of whom are affordable enough but who may not be controlled long enough to play for another Cinci contender. While extensions are theoretically possible, both are close enough to free agency that the price would be steep, and the Reds would run the risk of buying up post-prime years. Freeing cash to acquire and/or extend other, younger players — while adding significant prospects in return — may be the wiser course. Though it would sting in the short run, the Reds would gain added flexibility to meet needs and act on opportunities when they arise.
3. Bolster the bullpen. This may seem like an odd idea at first glance, given that I just finished suggesting the club consider dealing away several productive regulars as well as a lights-out closer. But there’s a possible strategy here that may ease the pain of rebuilding while adding some reasonably-priced upside to the team’s assets.
We’ve seen several clubs promise rotation spots to bounce-back rotation candidates on short-term deals, filling innings in the meantime and in some cases providing an opportunity to cash in at the trade deadline. (See, e.g., the Cubs’ deals with Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel.) Jocketty has acquired a range of quality pitching prospects who are ready to be tried in the rotation, reducing the need and the capacity for that particular strategy. But something analogous could be done with the relief corps, which has been rather uninspiring — at least, before the 9th inning. Indeed, that’s more or less what the Braves did last winter in adding Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson, and the Reds could follow suit.
Particularly if Cincinnati parts with Chapman this winter, it will have several attractive late-inning opportunities open in its pen. As high-priced late-inning relievers shake loose over non-tender season, the market will be flooded with arms — Steve Cishek and Addison Reed are two potential names that come to mind — all of whom won’t have a chance to work high-leverage innings for contenders. Signing a few such options should be quite reasonable, especially if the organization can move some contracts in the meantime, and those players would help secure winnable games, ease the burden on the team’s young starting staff, and offer the potential to morph into valuable deadline chips at the time when relievers achieve the greatest trade value.
A related approach could even be applied as the team considers prospect targets and develops its own pitchers. Cincinnati has a history of taking chances on quality arms that many believed would ultimately be ticketed for the pen (Chapman, Tony Cingrani, Nick Howard), and could seek to achieve value by doing so further via trade. Indeed, one could argue that the team did just that with the pitchers it added in its recent deals, all of whom could profile as future relievers. Those that aren’t excelling as starters could be moved quickly into the big league pen, setting the organization up for a cheap and high-quality future outfit and/or being spun off via trade.