Quick Hits: Valencia, Giants, Braves, Crain, Jays
Brenda Branswell of the Montreal Gazette reports that a feasability study conducted by the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal and the Montreal Baseball Project suggests that a return to Montreal for MLB could be financially viable, given a set of realistic assumptions. Those assumptions include league average ticket prices and local broadcasting deal along with a "modest, but competitive payroll." The study estimated that the project would cost $1.025 billion — $525MM to acquire an existing team and $500MM to build a new stadium. Major League Baseball has deemed moving a team to the old Olympic Stadium to be an unacceptable scenario. Here's more from around the league …
- The Orioles are looking at trade possibilities involving third baseman Danny Valencia, reports Jen Royle of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Dealing Valencia could free a 40-man slot for a new addition, though he had figured to provide some insurance as Manny Machado recovers from knee surgery. The 29-year-old has seen scattered MLB action since a mediocre stint as the Twins' everyday third bagger in 2011. In 170 plate appearances last year for the Orioles, he had a nice .304/.330/.553 slash line to go with eight long balls.
- As the Giants attempt to clear 40-man roster space for Michael Morse, they're pursuing minor trade ideas, Comcast SportsNet Bay Area's Andrew Baggarly tweets. Henry Schulman, meanwhile, tweets that one such minor trade could involve 1B/OF Brett Pill. The Brewers had previously shown interest in Pill, Schulman notes. The Morse signing is likely to become official tomorrow.
- The Braves turned their attention to Gavin Floyd only after ruling out the possibility of trading for Jeff Samardzija, MLB.com's Mark Bowman tweets. In addition to Floyd, the Braves also looked at Edinson Volquez (who eventually went to the Pirates), Chris Capuano, and Bruce Chen.
- Multiple teams have made offers to Jesse Crain, who is deciding if he wants to aim for a one- or two-year deal on the free agent market, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Presumably, Crain is weighing whether or not to take the security of a two-year deal or gamble on re-establishing his value on a one-year pact.
- With many second base options flying off the board, it's looking more and more like Ryan Goins will get a real chance as the Blue Jays' everyday second baseman in 2014, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Nicholson-Smith runs down some of the remaining keystone options for Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos to pursue.
- Jordany Valdespin has changed agencies, leaving ACES for Metis Sports Management, reports MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (on Twitter).
Steve Adams and Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.
Yankees Likely To Sign Brian Roberts
The Yankees are likely to sign free agent second baseman Brian Roberts, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Roberts, 36, is a client of Relativity Baseball.
The longtime Orioles second baseman entered free agency for the first time this year after spending 13 years in Baltimore. He just finished off the last season of the four-year, $40MM extension (2010-13) that he signed before the 2009 season. The former All-Star played in just 192 games over the span of that contract, as he dealt with a host of injuries that included a serious concussion.
In 296 plate appearances in 2013, Roberts posted a .249/.312/.392 line. In 2009, his last full season of action, Roberts put up a then-typical .283/.356/.451 triple-slash. Once a plus defender, defensive analytics now see him as an approximately average fielder at the keystone. (In 2013, he registered a 5.1 UZR/150 and a neutral mark from The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric.)
From the Yankees' perspective, the addition of Roberts would not prevent the club from adding another bat to the infield, Rosenthal notes. New York may be hesitant to rely on a combination of Roberts and Kelly Johnson at second and third, particularly given Roberts' injury history. (Twitter links.) One possibility, in Rosenthal's estimation, is a re-signing of Mark Reynolds. And we heard earlier today that minor league signee Dean Anna could join the mix at second.
Cubs Sign Wesley Wright
TODAY: The Cubs have made Wright's signing official with an announcement today via press release.
DECEMBER 4: The Cubs have signed left-handed reliever Wesley Wright to a one-year deal for $1.425MM, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Wright, who was recently non-tendered by the Rays, is represented by Reynolds Sports Management.
The 28-year-old came to Tampa for the stretch last year after he was traded via waiver claim from the Astros. He posted a combined 3.69 ERA in 53 2/3 innings for the two clubs. As one might expect, Wright has historically been much more effective against lefties. When facing same-handed hitters, he has posted a career 3.11 K:BB ratio while surrendering only a .655 OPS.
Entering the off-season with four years and 105 days of Major League service, Wright was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.4MM in arbitration. Since Wright will fall shy of qualifying for free agency following next year, the Cubs will also have future control over their new left-hander.
AL East Notes: Floyd, Balfour, Yankees, Victorino
Before signing with the Braves for $4MM with an additional $4.5MM in incentives, starter Gavin Floyd reportedly turned down a two-year offer from the Orioles that could have reached $20MM in value with incentives, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter links). In an interesting reversal of the usual bargaining positions of player and team, Connolly writes that Baltimore was not interested in giving a one-year deal to Floyd (who is still working back from Tommy John surgery) because it sought to secure another season at a reasonable price. Meanwhile, the previously-durable righty chose the shorter-term deal, presumably hoping to prove his health and command multiple years when he enters next season's free agent market at age 31.
Here's more from the American League East …
- The Orioles have a two-year offer out to free-agent closer Grant Balfour, and they're considering adding a vesting option to sweeten the deal, MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko tweets. Balfour is reportedly hoping for a third guaranteed year.
- In the wake of Robinson Cano's departure, the Yankees are unlikely to spend heavily on a second baseman, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The Yankees let Omar Infante go to the Royals and Mark Ellis to the Cardinals, so if they were to acquire a player like Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla or Rickie Weeks, they would likely expect the trading team to eat a good portion of their remaining salary. If the Yankees don't make some sort of big move, newly-acquired minor-league veteran Dean Anna could be part of the equation at second.
- The Yankees are considering signing Michael Young or Brian Roberts to help in their infield, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman tweets. New York could also re-sign Mark Reynolds, according to Heyman.
- Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino underwent nerve release surgery on his right thumb today, the club announced via press release. Boston expects Victorino to be ready to join the team for Spring Training. Victorino's thumb issues had limited him late in the Sox' title run last year, but it sounds as if the club's offseason plans will not be impacted at this point.
Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.
Dodgers Close To Multi-Year Deal With J.P. Howell
The Dodgers are nearing agreement on a multi-year deal with southpaw reliever J.P. Howell, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. According to Gurnick, the deal contemplates a $11.25MM guarantee for two seasons. It would also contain a $6.25MM vesting option for a third year that will become guaranteed with 120 appearances over 2014-15.
Howell, 30, is represented by the Legacy Agency. He played in Los Angeles last year after inking a one-year, $2.85MM deal that included $1.2MM in achievable incentives. He was among the best left-handed relief options on the market this time around. Two other top lefties landed three-year deals, with Javier Lopez obtaining a $13MM guarantee from the Giants and Boone Logan netting $16.5MM from the Rockies. But Howell's deal betters those two in average annual value, and easily eclipses the two-year, $5.5MM commitment that Manny Parra received from the Reds.
Though Howell is slightly older than Logan, he is coming off of a better season. Howell registered a 2.03 ERA in 62 innings for the Dodgers in 2013, striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings while allowing 3.3 walks and 6.1 hits per nine. Advanced metrics were a fan of his work last year as well, with an FIP landing at 2.89 and an xFIP at 3.48.
On the other hand, those same measures were much less pleased by Howell's 2011-12 campaigns, leaving at least some cause to wonder whether he can repeat his 2013 results. Steamer and Oliver projections, via Fangraphs, both see Howell as likely to regress. Predicting a bump up in his low HR/9 and BABIP numbers from last year, those systems peg him as a mid-3.00 ERA hurler next year.
Cardinals To Sign Mark Ellis
MONDAY: Ellis' contract guarantees him $5.25MM and contains more than $1MM worth of incentives, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Ellis obtains the same base salary that he had in 2013 and, when combined with the $1MM buyout he received from the Dodgers, has exceeded the amount of money he could have earned had Los Angeles simply exercised the option.
SUNDAY: The Cardinals have a one-year deal in place with free agent second baseman Mark Ellis, with a physical and subsequent announcement expected later this week, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). Ellis is represented by TWC Sports.
Ellis, 36, spent the last two seasons as the Dodgers' primary second baseman, but hit the open market when Los Angeles declined declined a $5.75MM club option for 2014. Last year, he hit .270/.323/.351 in 480 plate appearances. As has come to be expected, Ellis continued to display stellar defense, putting up +7.6 UZR/150 and +12 DRS per The Fielding Bible in 2013. That bumped his value into the range of about one-and-a-half to three wins above replacement, depending on which WAR recipe you prefer.
Looking at the list of available second baggers, Ellis was probably the best overall option left on the market at this point. While other players offered more attractive age or upside, Ellis has been a consistent contributor for nearly a decade. With Omar Infante and Juan Uribe coming off the board in recent days, Stephen Drew is arguably the only free agent, non-first baseman infielder left on the market who should be counted on as an above-average regular next season.
St. Louis had been expected to add a veteran option that could play up the middle, and Ellis should fit in well in the Cardinals infield mix. 23-year-old prospect Kolten Wong figures to have the inside track to the everyday job at the keystone. But Ellis offers both a veteran alternative and a platoon option to pair with Wong's left-handed bat. Over his 5,500+ MLB plate appearances, Ellis has a .777 OPS against lefties and a .700 OPS against same-handed hurlers. Wong has, unsurprisingly, posted somewhat better numbers against righties in the early stages of his professional career. Ellis could also spell Matt Carpenter at third, notes Rosenthal (via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Huntington On Free Agency, Burnett, First Base
In a Q&A yesterday with several bloggers, including Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout (and, of course, MLBTR), Pirates GM Neal Huntington tackled a series of transactional issues. You'll want to give a read to Charlie's writeup to get the full picture, but here are some key takeaways:
- Huntington addressed previous comments in which he reportedly said if A.J. Burnett "or others want a market-value deal, they'll sign elsewhere." He did not deny the quote, but said it did not capture what he meant to convey. "What I certainly intended was that top-tier free agents, if they're looking for top-tier dollars, they're going to play somewhere else," said Huntington. "And that's not just Pittsburgh. That's probably half to maybe two-thirds of the markets in baseball." Huntington pointed to last year's signing of Russell Martin as an instance of the franchise topping the market for a player it valued highly; "so, it's not that we won't pay market value when it's appropriate."
- Huntington added for the "right player, right contract, we'll absolutely go three years. We can go to four years if we need to. But it's got to be the right player for the right contract. It's just the margin for error is a little easier with some of the bigger-market clubs."
- Burnett is still an option for the Pirates. "We're working to be as patient as we can with A.J.," Huntington said. "A.J. would be our biggest free-agent acquisition if he chooses to come back, so we've tried to keep that door open as long as we can."
- Huntington denied the signing of Edinson Volquez will affect the team's pursuit of Burnett. "If A.J. decides to come back and we can make it work, we'll figure something out."
- Huntington said there is a reason why the Pirates haven't been linked to many free agents. "We don't promote what we're doing. I don't call this reporter and say, 'Can you get our name in this mix?' We don't want some people to know what we're doing. We like to work in the background. I like nothing more than to surprise some people with a move, because we don't need to announce what we're doing."
- Huntington said the front office hasn't been on the sidelines and is working hard, but admits, as compared to last offseason, he hasn't "felt this huge sense of urgency." Filling the Pirates' need at first base is a prime example. "The first base market is evolving. There's some guys that have gone off the board that we liked, but not for a cost that we felt was appropriate for us."
Edward Creech contributed to this post.
Indians Intend To Sign Reliever With Closer Experience
The Indians have every intention of adding an impactful veteran relief arm, club president Mark Shapiro told hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio link). "We will clearly add a bullpen guy and a guy that has some back end closing experience," said Shapiro. "I think in the next week or two you'll see us be able to consummate something there."
After cutting loose former closer Chris Perez and allowing setup man Joe Smith to depart via free agency, the Indians have some potential openings at the back of the pen. Of course, as MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth has explained, the team has reasonably attractive internal options as well. And as Shapiro added, the club feels that both Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw could "step up and pitch later in games."
Armed with that internal security net, Shapiro also hinted that the Indians could be looking to achieve value on the late-inning relief market, rather than targeting a particular pitcher. "It's an area of the market where there was an opportunity," he said.
Indeed, a sizeable pool of relievers with closing experience remains available on the open market. Most recently, Cleveland has been connected to former Tigers closer Joaquin Benoit as well as one-time Brewers 9th-inning man John Axford.
If you want to brainstorm other possibilities for the Indians, or any other club, simply head to MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Tracker (found under the "Tools" section) and filter the results to suit your needs.
Marlins Still Looking To Add Third Baseman
When Juan Uribe re-upped with the Dodgers yesterday, the Marlins were left looking at a thin third base supply that lacks any obvious starter-level options. But that does not mean that Miami will not make an addition, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.
Eric Chavez could be an option, as he has posted two straight years with a better-than .800 OPS. But Chavez, who just turned 36, has done virtually all of his damage against right-handed pitching. He also has drawn wide interest, and may not end up being terribly cheap. Of the remaining free agents, says Frisaro, the Fish are most interested in bringing back Casey McGehee from Japan or giving Wilson Betemit a chance to reestablish his health and his bat. But, says Frisaro, the club may be more inclined to bring one of those two in on a minor league deal.
As I noted in presenting the club's offseason outlook, a stopgap could well make sense. That is especially so if Miami agrees with MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo that prospect Colin Moran could be ready for the bigs by the end of the summer.
Alternatively, as I explained in that piece, the club could slide Derek Dietrich to the hot corner. Dietrich has power upside and a big arm, and is just 24. But he is now without a position after the signing of Rafael Furcal. Frisaro does note that Dietrich could still be under consideration at third. The easiest (and, perhaps, best) option at this point might be to platoon his left-handed stick with a right-handed swinging veteran.
Of course, I wrote that piece before Miami went out and spent a decent chunk of cash to add veteran options around the infield. With an exciting young outfield and pitching staff already in place, it may be tempting to round out the offseason with a more impactful addition.
Indeed, according to Frisaro's report, there is at least some consideration being given to pursuing a third baseman via trade. Though the club would not part with any of its young pitching unless it returns "a big league prospect under club control," Frisaro suggests Will Middlebrooks of the Red Sox and Mike Olt of the Cubs as hypothetical targets.
From my perspective, with Moran in the wings and Dietrich on hand, the club would have to achieve significant value in a trade to make that route the most attractive proposition. Simply adding a right-handed bat to complement the team's existing youngsters may be the most efficient and highest-upside play at the present.
Phillies May Have Reached 2014 Payroll Limit
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. left the impression at the Winter Meetings that the club would look to keep its payroll in line with last year's. As he told reporters, including CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury: "We should be contending with this kind of payroll, at $165MM or $170MM, wherever it shakes out."
After taking a look at the team's current obligations, writes Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com, it appears that Philadelphia has already spent up to that level after accounting for pre-arb players and projected arbitration salaries. (Seidman's rough math shows the team currently standing at $165MM for 2014, which is the low end of the band suggested by Amaro.) The free agent signings of Carlos Ruiz, Wil Nieves, Marlon Byrd, and Roberto Hernandez tacked on over $22MM to the club's payroll for the coming season, seemingly coming close to exhausting Amaro's war chest.
As I explained in breaking down the Phils' offseason needs, one option was for the club simply to tick through its list of needs by adding non-premier veterans. That seems to be essentially what has taken place, with the aforementioned players occupying the gaps found at catcher, the corner outfield, and the starting rotation.
Of course, as I also argued in that piece, the Phillies have roughly 17.5 wins above replacement to make up (as against their 2013 total) to look like a playoff team. If these signings work out, and things break right elsewhere, the Phillies should have the overall talent level to make a run at the post-season. But, on those kinds of favorable assumptions, so do many other clubs.
On paper at least, Philly still figures to land behind the Nationals and Braves in pre-season NL East forecasts. Indeed, it would not be surprising to see the Mets and Marlins tapped by some to finish ahead of the Phils. (After all, both New York and Miami have made some potentially impactful additions and generally feature younger rosters that may be more likely to make strides.) Not only does it remain unclear whether recent spending is warranted, given the rest of the roster, but the club has also not acted decisively to bolster its future talent pipeline.
It remains to be seen, of course, whether the Phillies have spent all available funds for the coming year, especially since there is still some possibility that they will shed some of Jonathan Papelbon's salary. But as things stand, the team's strategy of adding veteran pieces to its aging core brings with it much the same risk that came to life last year, when the club fell out of contention and suffered a significant attendance drop. For a franchise that faces a young talent deficit and is trying to negotiate a big, new TV deal, the consequences of those risks are increasingly magnified.