Juan Uribe Rumors: Saturday
Here is the latest on Juan Uribe, who is one of the most intriguing infield candidates remaining on the free agent market:
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said today that he remains hopeful of bringing back Uribe at third, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com (via Twitter). Recent reports had indicated that Uribe and the Dodgers may be moving apart after the sides could not agree on a one-year deal with an option for a second.
- Earlier this morning, we heard that Michael Young could be of interest as the everyday man on the hot corner in Los Angeles, based in part on the team's perception that Uribe could be planning to depart.
- The Marlins remain interested in Uribe, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported late last night. Miami would likely not only use Uribe at third, but also to take some at-bats against lefties at first base. Uribe wants two or three years in a deal, says Frisaro.
Poll: Best Trades Of The Winter Meetings
While the MLB Winter Meetings are already fading in the rearview mirror, it seemed that we ought to do at least one poll on the results. With so much money already committed through free agency, I wondered at the outset of the meetings whether the stage was set for interesting trade scenarios. So, we'll ask MLBTR readers: which teams best utilized their time in Orlando to swing a trade?
Though nothing qualifying as a blockbuster went down, there were some interesting swaps. And each appeared to feature different strategic motivations and philosophies on player value. Such differences, of course, are fuel for the hot stove (and are what make trades so interesting). So, here are the four major deals in a nutshell:
The deal:
- Diamondbacks acquire OF Mark Trumbo, RHP A.J. Schugel, and OF Brandon Jacobs in exchange for OF Adam Eaton and LHP Tyler Skaggs
- Angels acquire Skaggs and LHP Hector Santiago in exchange for Trumbo and Schugel
- White Sox acquire Eaton in exchange for Santiago and Jacobs
Summary:
It was easy to see the respective clubs' motivations in making this deal, but check out their GMs' comments for a refresher. Power went to Arizona, young arms to Los Angeles (including one with upside in Skaggs), and a nice, affordable outfield piece to Chicago. The Diamondbacks got the biggest name and, perhaps, most immediate impact, but the other clubs filled holes in a cost-efficient manner. Which end do you like?
The deal:
- Rockies acquire LHP Brett Anderson and $2MM in exchange for LHP Drew Pomeranz and RHP Chris Jensen
- Athletics acquire Pomeranz and Jensen in exchange for Anderson and $2MM
Summary:
If you're interested in tracking buy-low opportunities on talented left-handed pitching, this deal is one to keep an eye on. Both pitchers were born in 1988, interestingly enough. Anderson brings a tantalizing MLB track record, but comes with serious injury concerns, a substantial price tag, and only two years of control. Pomeranz has yet to realize his ability at the game's highest level — he has a 5.20 ERA in 136 2/3 MLB innings split over three seasons — but still comes with five years of team control and his top-25 prospect pedigree. So, which southpaw was the better one to take a chance on?
The deal:
- Nationals acquire LHP Jerry Blevins in exchange for OF Billy Burns
- Athletics acquire Burns in exchange for Blevins
Summary:
Everyone knew the Nationals were going to add a southpaw reliever; it was just a question of who and how. With the price on the open market not to the club's liking, it decided to barter. Blevins is arguably a more attractive piece than Boone Logan, but his final two arb years should cost the Nats less than a quarter of Logan's $16.5MM guarantee from Colorado. Meanwhile, Burns was blocked in the D.C. system, but could provide cheap, solid production in Oakland before long. His top-level defense and baserunning give him the kind of floor that could be money in the bank in a year or two. This looks like a nice way for both teams to preserve future resources, but did either team achieve enough value to make their end of the deal the best at the Winter Meetings?
The deal:
- Mariners acquire 1B/DH Logan Morrison in exchange for RHP Carter Capps
- Marlins acquire Capps in exchange for Morrison
Summary:
A deal involving Morrison became a fait accompli when Miami inked Garrett Jones, but his market value remained difficult to assess. Once a top prospect, Morrison had hit at a well-above-average clip for his first 800+ plate appearances before injury and inconsistency derailed him in 2012-13. When Wednesday became moving day for corner outfield/first base/DH types with question marks, we got our answer on LoMo's return: Capps, a big-armed, cost-controlled 23-year-old who has a good bit of upside (within the bounds of possibility for a right-handed reliever). Do you see Morrison as an undervalued asset, view Capps as the kind of young power arm that the Cardinals just rode to a World Series appearance, or both?
—
To get at the true sentiments of MLBTR readers, I'll ask you to order the trades — from most beneficial to least — that were consummated at the 2013 Winter Meetings. (Note: response order is randomized.)
Click here to see the results as they roll in.
Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey , the world's leading questionnaire tool.
Dodgers Could Sign Young As Regular Third Baseman
The Dodgers are considering signing free agent Michael Young and installing him as the club's everyday third baseman, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com. MVP Sports Group represents the 37-year-old.
After spending much of his time in 2011-12 as a designated hitter, Young served last year as the Phillies' regular third bagger before finishing the year as a utilityman for the Dodgers. Young's return to a daily role in the field came with mixed results. On the one hand, he proved that he is still capable of keeping up with the grind. On the other, Young's hot corner work graded out at or below replacement level in the aggregate.
Young hit at a slightly above average rate in 2013, posting a .279/.335/.395 triple-slash in 565 plate appearances. On the other hand, UBR pegged Young as costing his clubs 4.6 runs through baserunning. And advanced fielding metrics were not fans of his work on the hot corner. UZR, for instance, graded Young as the second-worst regular third baseman in the league.
While we heard recently that the Dodgers were eyeing Young, it would seem a surprise for Los Angeles to plug him into its everyday lineup to start the year. The club could also ink him as a utility player and use his presence to regain some leverage in a seller's market. Juan Uribe, who delivered a big year for the Dodgers in 2013, remains available. But the club is reportedly prepared to move on after not hearing back on an offer to the free agent, with Olney tweeting that L.A. increasingly believes he'll find a new home. Otherwise, the Dodgers will presumably need to test the trade market, where pickings are slim and prices could be high.
Doug Fister’s Hidden Value To The Nationals
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has received ample praise for the recent deal that brought Doug Fister to D.C. from the Tigers. And for good reason: as Rizzo put it, the towering righty was "an undervalued asset."
I already explored some of the strategic and philosophical approaches that the Nats' GM successfully employed in pulling off the deal, including the packaging of players whose perceived value has skyrocketed of late. With the benefit of reflection, however, the true extent of Fister's value to Washington appears even greater than at first glance.
Others have pointed out that a better infield defense (and the lack of a DH for the opposition) could benefit the groundball-inducing hurler's ability to prevent runs. But there are also several strategic mechanisms by which Fister brings enhanced value to D.C.
The first relates to the possibility of negotiating an extension with Fister. As I noted in my earlier piece, the two-year exclusive negotiating window now open for Washington is valuable in and of itself. Extensions are the only way to capture excess value from established, high-level big leaguers, and the rights to negotiating them are a nice asset.
But that holds all the more so in this case, given the Nats' array of starting pitching. Washington already has one starter inked to a long-term contract in Gio Gonzalez. And the club has other relatively young arms — primarily, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann — that are plenty good enough to command their own new deals. But Strasburg is represented by Scott Boras, who (it hardly bears repeating) has tended to lead his premium clients onto the open market. And Zimmermann is now, like Fister, within two seasons of free agency, reducing his incentives to sign and driving up his price.
Fister's presence among D.C.'s slate of extension-worthy starters gives Rizzo options and leverage. If the club only plans to extend a certain number of its arms, then he can effectively compete his offers between his three top starters. If Rizzo has designs on extending all of those who are willing to talk, then he can legitimately point to limitations on the club's future payroll pool. And if some of the three are determined to test the market, he'll have better odds to lock up a reasonable deal with the remainder.
Even more importantly, perhaps, Fister becomes a replacement arm in the club's long-term plans if either Zimmermann or Strasburg suffer injury or performance decline. For a team that has designs on competing in the near term while setting itself up for a long run of success, a major injury at the wrong time could derail careful planning. (Indeed, I just discussed how the Tigers have navigated that kind of situation.) Now, Fister offers another potential long-term piece, which is especially important since both Strasburg and Zimmermann already have had Tommy John surgery.
Somewhat relatedly, Fister leaves the Nationals with immense flexibility for the 2015 offseason and beyond. In addition to Ross Detwiler, the Nationals have a host of other potential starters percolating through the system: Tanner Roark, Taylor Jordan, Nate Karns, Sammy Solis, A.J. Cole, Jake Johansen, and Matt Purke. (Oh, and then there's top overall prospect Lucas Giolito, who is just 19 but could soon be knocking on the door.) By adding the last two years of Fister's arbitration eligibility, instead of a long-term contract with a free agent, Rizzo ensured that he will be able to promote cheaper options from within if they prove ready.
Indeed, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that good seasons from some of those just-mentioned arms could make Fister a trade candidate next year. It bears noting, of course, that one of the club's other top starters could instead be shopped. Asked about that possibility by FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal, Rizzo acknowledged that a trade was always possible if extension talks did not work out. (links to Twitter.) If that happens, given Rizzo's track record for value-based dealing, it would not be shocking to see him get back nearly as much in prospect value as he gave up to get Fister in the first place.
Of course, even if Fister proves to be a two-year rental, he appears highly likely to warrant a qualifying offer that will net a draft pick if he (or, say, Zimmermann) walks. Any big league return on that pick would come well into the future, but it is no mean consideration.
In the end, of course, the best deals are those where a player can bring additional value to his new destination. That appears to be the case with Fister's switch to the Nationals, both on and off the field.
Looking At The Market For Kendrys Morales
The Mariners long seemed destined to bring back Kendrys Morales after the first baseman/designated hitter declined his $14.1MM qualifying offer. With interest already likely limited to American League clubs since he is not generally viewed as a regular first baseman, Morales's market figured to be dragged down further by draft pick compensation. That, in turn, made a return to Seattle an obvious fit.
But now, after adding both Corey Hart and Logan Morrison in quick succession, Seattle may no longer be a real landing spot for Morales. Both of those players seem more likely to see time at first and DH than in the outfield, and the club still has Justin Smoak in the mix as well. (Smoak, of course, just had his best big league season at age 26.)
On the other hand, the M's could elect to deal Smoak and bring back Morales. But if they do not, the remaining market looks to be a tough one for the Cuban national. It may be fair to wonder whether he will be able to better the qualifying offer that he turned down. (It would not be the first time that something like this has happened: Jason Varitek declined arbitration, under the prior Type A/B compensation system, only to re-sign with the Red Sox for far less than he stood to earn via arbitration.) Indeed, one GM even told Peter Gammons that he "just cannot see Kendrys Morales signing until after the draft." (Twitter link.)
There are, of course, some other American League clubs that would seem to make sense as a landing spot for Morales. (Presumably, NL teams will remain disinterested given his defensive limitations, even if agent Scott Boras is pitching him as a regular in the field.) After all, the switch-hitter is capable from both sides of the plate and mashes righties in particular. He has hit thirty home runs and seems a good bet to knock over twenty on a regular basis. Since his first season as a regular in 2009, he has a 128 OPS+. There is a reason he received, and declined, a qualifying offer, and he begins to look more and more appealing the more top players depart the open market.
There is one team that, like the Mariners, could make a great deal of sense if they make a trade. The Yankees currently stand to give a lot of DH at-bats to Alfonso Soriano. If the club deals Brett Gardner — however unlikely that may be — Soriano would move back to the oufield and potentially open the door for Morales, who could also spell a recovering Mark Teixeira at first. Bear in mind, New York would have relatively little to lose in terms of sacrificing draft picks, having already given up its first rounder. And Yankee Stadium would make quite an appealing spot for Morales to up his power numbers.
Then, there are the Orioles and Angels, both of which could definitely use Morales' bat. Unfortunately, each of those teams would also be required to give up a first-round draft selection (the 15th and 17th overall, respectively) to bring him in. And that is before considering payroll limitations. Nevertheless, the Brewers ultimately proved willing last year to give up a top choice to bring in Kyle Lohse on a seemingly reasonable deal last year, so it would be unwise to count the Halos and O's out completely.
The most interesting alternative possibility, however, could be the Astros. Houston has begun spending after trimming payroll to minimal levels in years past, and an interesting bat would elevate interest and expectations. And the team would only lose a second round choice if they inked Morales. GM Jeff Luhnow said just yesterday that the first base/DH slot was an area that the club might consider upgrading. Brett Wallace and Chris Carter are both limited players, while top prospect Jonathan Singleton might still need time to develop. If Morales could be had at a low enough cost, Houston could slot his bat in the middle of the lineup and use Wallace and Carter in some manner of platoon (or shed one of them).
While a return to Seattle may not be in the cards, there's still a market out there for Morales, even if there isn't a clear odds-on favorite for his services.
James Loney Rumors: Wednesday
Attention on the first base market could now shift to James Loney after the Mariners took a pair of options off the board in Logan Morrison and Corey Hart. Yesterday, we heard that the Pirates were checking back in on him, while the Brewers were hesitant to meet his three-year asking price. Here's the latest:
- The Brewers have "sincere interest" in Loney but don't expect to get anything done before leaving the Winter Meetings, according to McCalvy (on Twitter).
Earlier Reports
- The Pirates and Brewers are still in on Loney, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com, with the Rays also remaining in the discussion.
- Indeed, after watching Hart leave for Seattle, the Brewers have turned their attention to Loney, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club is probably only interested if the deal stays under three years, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
- If Milwaukee instead shifts its attention at the trade market, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter), options include Ike Davis, Mitch Moreland, and Justin Smoak. Haudricourt wonders (via Twitter) if the thin market could lead to an increased willingness to pay Loney.
- Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle tweeted earlier today that while the Astros prefer a stopgap, they haven't ruled out Loney.
Tigers Still Successfully Adapting Long After Peralta Suspension
When Jhonny Peralta's suspension was announced in early August of 2013, it set in motion a series of transactions that re-shaped the Tigers' roster. The results, viewed in the aggregate, appear rather impressive. GM Dave Dombrowski not only shored up the team's chances at an ultimately successful division title run in 2013, but formulated a responsive strategy that spared the club over $150MM in future guarantees without sacrificing significant short-term value. Here's how Dombrowski's subsequent actions shook out.
With Peralta set to miss the stretch run at a division title, the Tigers acted decisively to replace him at short with Jose Iglesias, costing the team outfield prospect Avisail Garcia and reliever Brayan Villarreal. While that took Garcia out of the running to see time in left field in 2014 (as a regular or in a platoon with Andy Dirks), he likely would have competed with Nick Castellanos for a single job anyway. As a result, the Tigers not only replaced Peralta, but were left with the ability to slot not just one, but two league-minimum salaries into their everyday 2014 lineup. (I.e., Iglesias and Castellanos, as opposed to Garcia or Castellanos alone.)
Castellanos' role remained unclear, however, as the 21-year-old has played both third and the corner outfield over his career. That flexibility helped free Dombrowski to ship first baseman Prince Fielder to Texas in exchange for second baseman Ian Kinsler, saving $76MM in the process. Castellanos entered the picture at third, Miguel Cabrera shifted to first, and Kinsler slotted in at second.
As a byproduct of the around-the-horn musical chairs, the Tigers no longer had to compete for free agents to play up the middle. Second baseman Omar Infante would have come with an estimated $25MM price tag. (Although, as MLBTR's Zach Links noted, the club may have gone with the younger, cheaper Hernan Perez at the keystone anyway.) And Peralta's return, we now know, would have required over double that sum.
Meanwhile, the Tigers still had an excess of legitimate starting options. By shifting Drew Smyly to the rotation and shipping Doug Fister to the Nationals, the club saved another $6.5 million or so in guarantees at that starting slot. And in nabbing utility infielder Steve Lombardozzi and left-handed reliever Ian Krol in return, Dombrowski added two more league-minimum roster spots. In addition to adding back a left-handed arm to a pen that stands to lose Smyly, the move presumably saves the cost of adding a utility player on the open market. (That might have cost around $2.5MM to $3MM per season on a one or two-year deal, based on the Nick Punto, Willie Bloomquist, and Skip Schumaker contracts.)
The Tigers just made another related move by signing Rajai Davis to a two-year deal. With Garcia now in Chicago and Castellanos at the hot corner, the club still needed a right-handed bat to pair with Dirks in left. This move, in turn, adds $10MM back to the Detroit payroll.
The net of these moves is significant, to say the least. If, instead, the team were still responsible for the Fielder and Fister contracts, and had brought back Infante and Peralta while signing a utility infielder, it could well have over $150MM in additional guaranteed current and future payroll obligations. (This includes the money saved in the Fielder and Fister deals, offset by the money owed the newly acquired players, and the avoided cost of signing Peralta at $50MM+, Infante at $25M+, and a utility infielder at around $3MM.) Even if you assume the club would have plugged in Perez at second, this is a huge sum.
It is worth noting, also, that if young pitcher Robbie Ray can eventually occupy a big-league rotation spot, his years of cheap control will offset the added money that Smyly will eventually earn through arbitration from throwing as a starter. And the additional league-minimum and arb-eligible years from Lombardozzi and Krol could avoid some long-term spending as well, even if neither player figures to be terribly productive. (Of course, it is still fair to ask — as I have — whether the Tigers should have commanded a different and better return for Fister.)
But, how do the tradeoffs look in terms of projected performance? Detroit likely saved $150MM+ at a cost of between 1.5 and five wins next season. Compare Detroit's current alignment to a hypothetical Tigers team that instead retained Fister and Fielder while signing Peralta, Infante, and a utility infielder of Lombardozzi's ilk. Steamer and Oliver project something like the following production shifts: A 3-4 win improvement at first and a half to a full win improvement at second. An approximate push at left field and the utility spot. And the loss of between four to five wins at third, 1 to 1.5 each at short and in the rotation, and somewhere in the realm of a half to a full win in the pen.
Now, we will see whether and how Detroit spends its surplus cash. Extensions are certainly possible, of course, whether agreed upon now or in the future. Or, the club could still try and add back those missing wins by signing an impact player like Shin-Soo Choo, which might well bring the net dollar and WAR impact for 2014 back to its rough starting point.
Even in the latter scenario, Dombrowski's maneuvering would not have been for naught. Remember, he not only plugged a sudden and unexpected gap at a critical point in a contending season, but did so by adding a player (Iglesias) with largely the same control and value as the one he gave up (Garcia).
But what if Dombrowski instead moves to add 2014 production — through the pen and bench, perhaps — at a much lower overall commitment than the dollars he shed? (And, in so doing, refrains from tapping his 2016-20 powder kegs, holding them in reserve for long-term deals for worthier players?) It is generally assumed that a closer like Joe Nathan would have been signed either way, but that might not be true. And what if Dombroski has reason to expect that his replacements will outperform their projections?
If some or all of those questions are answered in the affirmative, Dombrowski's strategic response to the Peralta suspension may prove to have been a masterstroke.
Towers, DiPoto, Hahn Discuss Trumbo Deal
In a joint press conference this afternoon, general managers Kevin Towers of the Diamondbacks, Jerry Dipoto of the Angels, and Rick Hahn of the White Sox discussed the three-way trade that sent Mark Trumbo from Los Angeles to Arizona.
Towers said that he had been discussing center fielder Adam Eaton with Hahn for some time, but that the ultimate three-party deal "came together rather quick." Confirming that Trumbo will be the club's regular left fielder, Towers acknowledged that it "will be difficult" for him to transition to full-time outfield play after spending most of his time last year at first base. But Towers expressed confidence that Trumbo would eventually defend in left at a league-average level.
Looking ahead, Towers said that the club still definitely wants to add a "front-of-the-rotation starter." Though the club parted with valuable youngsters in today's trade, he said that he still believes Arizona has sufficient minor league pitching from which to deal. Towers said his preference, however, would be to add an arm via free agency.
Meanwhile, Dipoto explained that his club's interest in the trade was acquiring young, controllable starters. Hector Santiago, said Dipoto, had shown he can succeed at the major league level. As for Tyler Skaggs, who came via Arizona, Dipoto explained that his youth and high upside trumped his underwhelming results in limited MLB action. "The next step is imminent for him," said Dipoto. While Dipoto said that both hurlers are expected to have every opportunity to slot into the Angels rotation, he indicated that there could be further additions.
Turning to the White Sox' end of the deal, Hahn said that he expects Eaton to be a solid presence atop the lineup for years to come. Calling Eaton a "dirtbag baseball player" who had stood near the top of the club's "target list" for some time, Hahn said his expectation is that the 25-year-old will man center for Chicago.
With Eaton displacing Alejandro De Aza up the middle, Hahn acknowledged that De Aza or fellow corner outfielder Dayan Viciedo could be dealt. Saying he expects to continue to "receive calls on both of those players," Hahn did note that the two could form a platoon if demand is insufficient.
Winter Meetings Offer Opportunity For Opportunism
Something of the neighborhood of $1.25B has already been committed through free agency. At last count, MLB teams have agreed to thirty-five multi-year deals, sixteen of which have guaranteed three or more years. While plenty of players remain on the open market, a measure of intrigue has certainly been sapped from the week's proceedings.
And with more major pieces locked up, more teams enter the meetings with relatively few significant question marks. To take a few examples, the Nationals, Athletics, Giants, and Cardinals all appear as if they could head to Spring Training with nothing more than a few minor additions. The Red Sox are among the other teams that arguably fall in that group. As GM Ben Cherington recently said, Boston has performed much of the heavy lifting it set out to accomplish.
So, will Cherington — and other GMs — kick back all week? That seems unlikely. As the Boston GM explained, his club "probably shifted more to the opportunistic part of the offseason." An intriguing description, to be sure.
Indeed, the relatively developed free agent market could be a catalyst for considering trades that might not be possible in a less static environment. Many teams already have a grasp on their 2014 payroll obligations and have largely committed to a strategic direction. Likewise, there is relative clarity in the market value and potential landing spots of the top remaining free agents. That means greater certainty to work from in exploring deals. And, of course, front offices should have somewhat more time on their hands to dedicate to exploring creative trade scenarios.
As the week unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how teams react to the early movement on the free agent market. It could well lead to some interesting, opportunistic maneuvers. MLBTR will have everything covered, as we once again provide around-the-clock, 24-hour coverage through Thursday.
Orioles Not Expected To Sign High-Priced Starter
Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette sounds as if he does not expect to commit a large sum to a free agent pitcher, according to a report from Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Though the club has tried to lure several free agent starters with offers, Kubatko says that rumors of significant interest in top options like Ubaldo Jimenez appear unrealistic.
Internally-developed arms are, instead, "where the Orioles are going to get value from their pitching program," said Duquette. "It's not going to come from high-priced free agents. So, if people are expecting the Orioles to go out and sign a significant pitcher, I think it's more realistic to look for good pitchers to come up through the farm system."