Qualifying Offer And Draft Pick Compensation Update
Unsurprisingly, the Yankees and Red Sox are at the center of the draft pick movement relating to players who declined qualifying offers. After all, they made six of this year's thirteen QOs, all of which were declined. (Click here for a refresher on how things work, courtesy of former MLBTR writer Ben Nicholson-Smith.)
Yesterday, we saw quite a few moves that had draft pick implications. The Yanks added Hiroki Kuroda and Carlos Beltran. Meanwhile, the club saw outgoing free agents Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson sign with the Mariners and Mets, respectively. Finally, Boston agreed to terms with Mike Napoli.
With Kuroda and Napoli rejoining their former clubs, their signings will not result in any draft pick changes. But the Yankees' other signings, in concert with their earlier deals with Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann, mean that the team stands to lose one pick in the aggregate: New York will give up its first round pick while sacrificing the two compensatory picks it would otherwise have received for the departure of Cano and Granderson. (As Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports via Twitter, an MLB official confirmed this result.)
As things stand, the Mariners and Mets also stand to sacrifice a pick (both of which will be second-rounders), while the Cardinals, Red Sox, and Braves are each in line to gain a compensatory selection. The remaining free agents that are tied to compensation are Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendrys Morales, and Ervin Santana.
AL East Notes: Beltran, Red Sox, Orioles
Last night's signing of Carlos Beltran emerged out of multi-team negotiations, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. As Heyman explains, Beltran's representatives at MVP Sports Group told the Yankees that two teams had offered three years and $48MM. GM Brian Cashman responded by offering $45MM for that term, but said the club would move on to Shin-Soo Choo if it did not receive a quick response. Obviously, Beltran took the Yanks offer. Here's more from the AL East:
- The Orioles allowed Nate McLouth and Scott Feldman to leave Baltimore for other teams yesterday without making formal offers to retain them, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reported yesterday. Connolly discussed those decisions this morning, arguing that the pair is not irreplaceable, but nevertheless must be replace in some manner. While executive vice president Dan Duqutte is excited about the recently-added Francisco Peguero, Connolly notes, the club ought to add at least one "legitimate free agent" to fill one of the club's holes.
- O's skipper Buck Showalter acknowledged that the team will need some players to step up to fill some roles, reports the Sun's Eduardo Encina, but he sees that as a challenge and an opportunity for some of the team's younger players. He also said that he anticipates more additions, particularly in the outfield. "We're looking at everybody and who's available, whether it be a free agent or a trade," said Showalter. "I'm personally looking from within to what I would do, where I would go." Though the club is actively shopping, Showalter noted the difficulties facing Baltimore in the present market. "As people become available and an option for us, Dan [Duquette] and I talk about it," he said. "It's obviously a player's market right now."
- For the Red Sox, the decision to bring back Napoli leaves the club with ample depth in left field and at first, notes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. (Twitter links.) Nevertheless, Boston GM Ben Cherington is not expected to address the team's remaining needs — namely, another left-side infielder and another outfielder capable of playing center — by dealing from that depth. As Speier notes, Jonny Gomes and (in particular) Mike Carp could bring back a useful return if they were to be shopped.
- Speier also took a deeper look at Boston's payroll and financial considerations in the wake of the Napoli signing.
- Boston remains more likely to deal one of its own starters than to add a new one, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Though the club was burned in the past when it dealt Bronson Arroyo, says MacPherson, the team's organizational depth is in much better shape this time around.
- Meanwhile, Cherington indicated that the club may not have any further major moves. "It could be we've done most of our heavy lifting for the winter," he told reporters, including Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. (Twitter links.) The club has now "probably shifted more to the opportunistic part of the offseason," Cherington said. The GM did confirm that the team is looking to make an addition on the left side of the infield, notes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald (via Twitter), though it has not yet determined whether it will be a major addition or a more complementary piece.
Yankees Receiving Significant Interest In Brett Gardner
After inking outfielder Carlos Beltran last night, the Yankees have received "significant interest" in Brett Gardner, reports Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter). The club is willing to deal Gardner, says McCullough, though it is not actively shopping him.
Gardner, 30, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4MM in his final go through arbitration before reaching the open market next year. The capable center fielder posted a .273/.344/.416 line in 609 plate appearances last year, good for 4.2 rWAR. Though his value is limited by the lack of significant team control, his low salary and ability to play any outfield position make him an intriguing trade target.
Meanwhile, for the Yanks, dealing Gardner is one possible way for the club to address other needs while using internal options in hs place. Though he played center last year in the Bronx, Jacoby Ellslbury figures to occupy that role going forward. The team could keep Alfonso Soriano in an outfield role, rather than shifting him to DH, if it were to make a deal. New York also still has Ichiro Suzuki under contract for next season, and the recently-signed Kelly Johnson spent a good deal of time in the outfield last year for Tampa.
Rockies And Athletics Explored Brett Anderson Trade
The Rockies and Athletics talked yesterday about a potential trade involving A's left-handed starter Brett Anderson, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, but were not able to line up on a deal. The clubs are not expected to revisit the possibility of Anderson moving to Colorado, Rosenthal adds.
Anderson has been one of the most interesting trade targets reportedly available. Though the 6'4 southpaw has seen his last several seasons derailed by Tommy John surgery and a fracture in his right foot, he is just 25 years of age and still has plenty of upside. Anderson threw 175 1/3 innings and posted a 4.06 ERA as a rookie in 2009, but has not maintained a full season of starting work since. When healthy, Anderson has generally been effective; he has a lifetime ERA of 3.81 in 450 2/3 innings. Last season was his roughest on the mound, as he posted a 6.04 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, though metrics like FIP (3.85) and xFIP (3.26) were much more favorable.
Meanwhile, for the Rockies, MLBTR's Zach Links wrote before the off-season that the rotation was an area that the club could make an impactful addition. After adding LaTroy Hawkins to the bullpen and Justin Morneau at first via free agency, but shedding the salary of Dexter Fowler via trade, Colorado might be in a position to take on payroll obligations for a starter. Anderson is due to be paid $8MM next season and comes with a $12MM option for 2015 ($1.5MM buyout).
Market Reset: 2013-14 Free Agent Spending To Date
*Updated to reflect last night's signings of Mike Napoli by the Red Sox and Carlos Beltran by the Yankees.
We have all heard the talk of new money infusing the game of baseball, and early free agent spending seems to reflect that. The numbers on the recent run of free agent signings sound high, but what do they tell us about overall spending levels? A quick look reveals that, indeed, spending seems destined to rise significantly this year.
Working from the MLBTR Free Agent Tracker, and taking out the non-guaranteed deals and exercised options that are reflected in that database, MLB clubs have now committed nearly $1.24B to free agents for the 2013-14 signing period. (That number includes today's share of the binge, at least as of the moment of publication.) That money has gone to 55 players and guaranteed a total of 126 years. Teams have, to date, given out an average guarantee of $22.52MM per player at an average annual value of $9.83MM.
Let's try and put that in context. I have been hard at work compiling various information on spending over the 2007-08 through 2012-13 signing seasons. (There will be plenty more to come on that, so consider this a preview.) The results show that we could be looking ahead to some remarkable new levels.
Here are the total dollars committed by season through free agency over the last six, completed signing seasons, compared to the current one. Note that prior years include all free agent spending, while this year's figures are only as of today (in $MMs):
As these numbers show, the league is well on its way to shattering previous high free agent spending totals: current commitments are already just under 85% of last year's sum, but we have probably seen less than half of the MLB deals that ultimately will be signed. Indeed, at last look, only half of MLBTR's top fifty free agents have reached agreement so far.
Of course, the rate figures presented in the table will probably drop as the Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury deals are balanced out by smaller, shorter contracts. And it is doubtful that the other half of the market will command as much as the first half has. Indeed, as the table shows, the total number of years guaranteed through free agency has been fairly uniform. If that is any indication, teams may not be handing out all that many more multiyear deals, having already signed up to pay for 126 years to date; over 60% of the deals signed thus far have been for multiple seasons, an unsustainable level.
If we do a more apples-to-apples comparison, the multiyear deals we've seen thus far are also coming in above historical levels. Again, we might expect some regression here, but the initial returns are interesting to look at. Compared only to multiyear deals signed in past seasons, here is where the rates presently stand:
As this chart hints, there are some interesting similarities so far between this signing season and the 2007-08 period, which came before the global economic downturn. But that will have to remain a topic for another day. For now, while it is still too early to know where things will fall out, the total commitments per player and AAV numbers will be worth watching over the rest of the signing season.
And it is probably not too early to say that, at this point, it would be a considerable surprise not to see a sizeable jump in overall free agent spending levels when we ultimately look back on this signing season.
Rays Re-Sign Juan Carlos Oviedo
The Rays officially announced that they have re-signed righty Juan Carlos Oviedo to a one-year, Major League deal. The contract reportedly guarantees the Wasserman Media Group client a base salary of $1.5MM and contains another $1.4MM worth of incentives. Tampa recently declined its $2MM club option for the 31-year-old, who spent all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Once the Marlins closer, Oviedo (formerly known as Leo Nunez) signed on with the Rays last year as he continued his TJ rehab. He never made it back to throw in 2013, but presumably will be ready for Spring Training next year. Before his suspension for assuming the identity of his best friend Nunez, Oviedo had registered 357 big league innings with a 4.34 career ERA.
Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish first reported that Oviedo would receive a one-year, Major League deal (on Twitter). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the $1.5MM value and incentives (Twitter links).
AL East Notes: Yankees, Ellsbury, Red Sox, Peguero
For a fascinating look at some of the background motivations for the Yankees' recent signings of catcher Brian McCann and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, be sure to read this excellent article from Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal. As Costa explains, New York's singular spending capacity is closely connected to its unique financial circumstances. The club's ticket sales and stadium seat licenses took a greater-than-$50MM hit last year due to missing the post-season, Costa reports. When one factors in the impact to merchandise, concessions, and future ticket sales, says Costa, the club's massive free agent investments begin to look more like a necessity. As Vince Gennaro notes in the piece, "If the Yankees were an 85-win team or an 83-win team for three or four years in a row, they would suffer financially orders of magnitude more than any other franchise."
Here are some more notes out of the Bronx and the rest of the AL East:
- If the Yankees have any chance of staying under the $189MM luxury tax level, a source tells Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, the club needs for Alex Rodriguez to remain suspended for all of 2014. If the suspension is upheld, the Yankees will avoid both his $27.5MM salary as well as the $6MM bonus they stand to pay if Rodriguez passes Willie Mays on the all-time home run list.
- The Yankees initially pursued Carlos Beltran more aggressively than Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post, but shifted their attention to Ellsbury as a third year became more and more likely for Beltran. The Mariners were seemingly willing to give Ellsbury a stunning nine-year deal, but the center fielder was apparently less than enthused about going to Seattle. Talks accelerated over the weekend when the Yanks agreed to exceed the Carl Crawford contract, Sherman reports.
- Meanwhile, Red Sox manager John Farrell told WEEI's Salk & Holley (via WEEI.com's Alex Speier) that the field staff and players were "jolted" by the news of Ellsbury's departure. With about a half-dozen current players reaching out for more information, Farrell told them that GM Ben Cherington was "doing the best he can with the two remaining guys, with [Mike Napoli] and [Stephen Drew]." "We're going to do anything we can to bring both guys back," Farrell told his players. Be sure to check out the link for a lot more quotes from Farrell on the team's recent moves and path forward.
- While Ellsbury's parting may have surprised Sox players, it seemed to be rather expected by the front office, as Speier notes. Indeed, as John Tomase of the Boston Herald reports (via Twitter), the club never made its star outfielder a nine-figure offer. Looking ahead, Boston still has plenty of work to do after resolving its catching opening by signing A.J. Pierzynski. But given the club's slate of young players already in the fold, says Speier, there are plenty of ways that Cherington can maneuver in addressing Boston's remaining questions.
- We just learned that the Orioles could be chasing some big-money free agents, but the club's most immediate move is expected to be the addition of outfielder Francisco Peguero, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com had previously reported (via Twitter) that a deal was in place, but executive vice president Dan Duquette said that "it's not a done deal." Duquette did, however, confirm that an agreement was close. The top Orioles baseball man noted that the club likes Peguero's defensive flexibility and hit tool. Adding Peguero would leave Baltimore with two vacant 40-man spots, Kubatko notes.
NL Notes: Mets, Nats, Reds, Samardzija, Rockies, D-Backs
Here are the latest updates from the National League side of the ledger:
- The Mets are increasingly expressing optimism about their efforts to bring Curtis Granderson into the fold, reports Marc Carig of Newsday, though nothing appears to be immiment. Joining the Mets in pursuit of Granderson are the White Sox and Mariners, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. If that does not work out for New York, says Puma, the club will "likely" turn its attention to Nelson Cruz.
- After parting ways with two left-handed relief options in Fernando Abad and Ian Krol, the Nationals remain interested in adding Oliver Perez, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Kilgore says that the Mariners and Padres also have interest in the 32-year-old southpaw, who pitched to a 3.74 ERA in 53 innings last year for Seattle.
- Echoing previous reports, Reds GM Walt Jocketty says that the club has told second baseman Brandon Phillips that it is "not in any talks to trade him," reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. Though Jocketty also noted that he could not rule out that possibility, he definitely left the impression that he is not actively shopping Phillips.
- Jocketty also indicated that the club is likely going to keep Aroldis Chapman in the closer role rather than converting him to a starter, reports Sheldon. Though Cincinnati will keep the starting option on the table in the spring, Jocketty said that the club likes its depth at the present. As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth wrote at the start of the off-season, the Reds could tinker with their rotation, but lack a pressing need to do so.
- Though the latest scuttlebutt has Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija marked for trade talks, club president Theo Epstein says that the club still hopes to extend him, tweets Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Of course, Chicago could certainly be keeping both options on the table for the time being.
- After trading away center fielder Dexter Fowler, the Rockies plan to shift Carlos Gonzalez over to fill the vacancy, reports the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). Meanwhile, the club is still shopping for relief pitchers, reports the Denver Post's Troy Renck (via Sulia), and may be most likely to add a bullpen arm via trade.
- The Diamondbacks are still looking to add a major piece, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, and GM Kevin Towers has indicated that the club would be willing to give up its first-round draft choice to sign a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer. Towers indicated that the club is most likely to add a starter via trade, leaving Piecoro to posit that the most likely open-market targets would be Granderson, Nelson Cruz, or Carlos Beltran.
- Meanwhile, the D-Backs could be much more willing to deal pitching prospect Tyler Skaggs than they had been in the past, Piecoro writes. In fact, the club apparently recently explored just that possibility. Coming off of a down year that saw his velocity drop, however, the 22-year-old probably also has diminished trade value at the moment, Piecoro further notes.
Orioles Interested In Choo, Cruz, Jimenez
The Orioles are "active" in discussions for multiple free agent pitchers and hitters, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Among them are outfielders Shin-Soo Choo and Nelson Cruz as well as starter Ubaldo Jimenez, according to Morosi.
While Baltimore entered the off-season with several needs, MLBTR's Mark Polishuk explained that budget constraints — especially with Chris Davis and Matt Wieters entering their last year of team control — left it unclear just how much the club would be able to spend. After clearing the projected $10.8MM salary of closer Jim Johnson, however, executive vice president Dan Duquette may have additional space with which to work.
Discussing the Johnson deal, Duquette indicated that it was in large part driven by "resource allocation." Looking forward, Duquette said the club was "still looking for help in left field" and "would also like to sign some other pitchers."
While any of the above-noted players would fill a need for Baltimore, it would seem to be something of a surprise for one to land there. As Duquette went on to note, "I don't think free agency is the way to build a strong team." And the big dollars expected to be landed by Choo, Cruz, and Jimenez would certainly eat up a big chunk of the present and future payroll for the O's.
AL West Notes: Rangers, Arencibia, Kazmir, Hughes, Mariners
Here's the latest from the American League West:
- Rangers GM Jon Daniels says the club is still looking for a durable backup catcher, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Though the recent spate of catcher moves took away some hypothetical options, Daniels said that "nobody has come off the board that we really pursued." Sullivan notes that Kurt Suzuki is one player in whom Texas has interest.
- In looking to add a backstop, the Rangers were close to adding J.P. Arencibia via trade before he was non-tendered by the Blue Jays, Sullivan reports. But the club did not want to add Arencibia unless it could work out terms on a new deal, and ultimately that did not happen. He joins Suzuki as possible free agent options for Texas.
- The Athletics' signing of left-handed starter Scott Kazmir to a two-year, $22MM deal kicked off a flurry of big moves for the A's. MLB.com's Jane Lee provides a summation of the considerations that brought him to Oakland, with Kazmir saying he loves the team and fan base and looks forward to throwing in the Coliseum. For GM Billy Beane, the club liked Kazmir's stuff, restored fastball velocity, overall body of work in 2013, and young age (29). Though Kazmir's up-and-down career trajectory might have scared off some clubs, Beane says that he views Kazmir's "character-building experience" of getting back to a high level of performance as a positive.
- Before Phil Hughes decided to take a three-year deal with the Twins, the Angels made him an offer of a "nice one-year deal," reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (via Twitter). As FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal noted in discussing several of MLB's recent moves, baseball sources believe Hughes could have landed up to $9MM or $10MM on a one-year deal, though another source told Rosenthal that no offers of that magnitude had actually been made.
- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik declined to comment on whether or not the club is pursuing Robinson Cano, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, saying that the club is keeping its talks "in house" but has "a lot of dialogue going on a lot of fronts." Talking generally about offering long-term deals, Zduriencik indicated that the club prefers to minimize risk but must "adapt to the market." While saying he would "like to add three" bats to the club, the Mariners GM noted that the club would still also be interested in adding "another starting pitcher" or even another pen piece.
- Ultimately, Zduriencik confirmed the widespread view that Seattle is looking to add impact to its roster. "It was a clear goal of ours to get us to a point where we would have young and inexpensive players throughout the line-up and I think we've accomplished that goal," said Zduriencik. "I always felt there would be a time where [we] would have to augment this club. I think we are at that time."