Baseball Blogs Weigh In: LaRue, Martin, Ortiz, Minaya
On this date four years ago, Trevor Hoffman set a new career saves mark when he retired Ryan Doumit, Jose Bautista, and Freddy Sanchez of the Pirates in order. His 479th save moved him past Lee Smith and into first place on the all-time list, a spot he still holds today with 600 career saves on the nose. Other than Mariano Rivera and the soon-to-retire Billy Wagner, no active closer is within 310 saves of Hoffman's mark.
Here's a collection of links from the last week of the baseball blog world…
- The Hardball Times takes an in-depth look at the legal implications of the Johnny Cueto–Jason LaRue brawl that led to LaRue's retirement.
- Disciples of Uecker checks in with the players the Brewers traded for C.C. Sabathia back in 2008.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. looks at how the Pirates bullpen has performed since trading away some key pieces at the deadline.
- The Process Report follows up a previous post and explains how Jose Lobaton continues to help the Rays even though he's never played a game for them.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness breaks down the Dodgers' options with Russell Martin.
- Red Sox Beacon tries to figure out what Boston should do with David Ortiz.
- Amazin' Avenue audits Omar Minaya's front office.
- Crashburn Alley discusses the genius of Charlie Manuel.
- Drunk Jays Fans looked at the merits of Rays' bench coach Dave Martinez as a potential Cito Gaston replacement.
- Feeling Dodger Blue says Tim Wallach should have gotten the Dodgers manager job over Don Mattingly.
- A Fan's Opinion plans out the Angels offseason.
- DesigNate Robertson does the same, but for the Tigers.
- Lookout Landing guesses at the Mariners' 2011 payroll.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Xavier Nady
It's always tough for a player when he hits free agency coming off an injury, but it's even tougher when it's a major injury. That's exactly what happened to Xavier Nady last winter, when he was recovering from his second Tommy John surgery after coming to the plate just 29 times for the Yankees in 2009.
The Cubs rolled the dice and signed Nady to a one-year deal worth $3.3MM in late January, though incentives based on games started and plate appearances have put another $350K in his pocket this season. Let's break down his stock heading into free agency…
The Pros
- After a slow start, Nady has rounded into form down the stretch, hitting .317/.351/.423 in his last 131 plate appearances. Not coincidentally, that hot streak almost directly coincides with the trade of Derrek Lee, which is when Nady took the first base job outright.
- He's now more than a full year away from his surgery and hasn't shown any ill effects.
- Nady is versatile, capable of playing first and both outfield corners regularly, as well as third in an emergency.
- He is not projected to be a Type-A (or even a Type-B) free agent, meaning a team would not have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Cubs offered him arbitration after the season.
The Cons
- Always known for his ability to mash lefthanded pitching (.298/.369/.455 vs. LHP in his career), Nady has hit just .250/.295/.375 against southpaws this year.
- He's also striking out more than ever, in exactly 27% of his at-bats, and his power numbers are down as well; Nady's .380 slugging percentage is his lowest since 2003.
- He hit just .225/.298/.344 in 171 plate appearances before taking over at first base full-time, perhaps suggesting that he needs regular playing time to remain productive.
- Nady will turn 32-years-old this November, so he's teetering on the edge of his prime and decline phases.
The Verdict
Despite what shaped up to be the worst season of Nady's career, he still has value as a platoon player that won't fall on his face if pressed into full-time duty. It would appear that staying in the NL makes the most sense, but perhaps the more hitter friendly parks of the AL would benefit Nady the most. There's no reason to think he'll be able to find a multi-year deal or get a considerable raise on the open market, so I would expect him to sign for a contract very similar to what he agreed to last winter.
Talks Picking Up Between Dunn, Nationals
Talks about a contract extension between Adam Dunn and the Nationals have "picked back up" according to the first baseman, and he says a deal "could happen today." That appears to be a little optimistic on Dunn's part, but we'll let you decide. Here is exactly what he said, courtesy of The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore…
"I do [think I'll be a National in 2011]," Dunn said. "More than I did a month ago. Talks have picked back up. We'll see what happens. We're obviously talking. We're going to work something out, I think."
"Going to free agency doesn't mean I'm leaving here. I'm sure whenever the season is over, I'll have, whatever it is, a month. If things haven't worked out here, yeah, it's going to go to free agency. But that doesn't mean I'm not coming here."
The Adam Dunn contract extension saga has lasted all year long, with both sides expressing interest in getting a deal done only to have nothing in place with the season about to draw to a close. Dunn indicated that he's in no hurry to sign, acknowledging that it's probably a disadvantage for him to agree to a deal without at least seeing what the open market has to offer.
Dunn, 30, is hitting .262/.358/.542 with 35 homers this season. He's gone deep at least 35 times in seven straight years, and right now the ability to hit for power is at a premium around the league. Despite the obvious fit, Dunn reiterated that he does not want to be a full-time designated hitter in the future, something that will work against him as a free agent.
Jayson Werth Now Represented By Scott Boras
Soon-to-be free agent outfielder Jayson Werth is now represented by Scott Boras, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). Werth split with the Beverly Hills Sports Council earlier this month and was said to be looking for an agent that charged less than the usual 5% commission.
Along with Carl Crawford, the 31-year-old Werth figures to be the most highly sought-after free agent outfielder this winter. His 3-for-5 day today included a walk-off homer, pushing his season line to .292/.381/.521 with 24 homers and a career best .902 OPS.
Speculation earlier this season had Werth getting something similar to the four-year, $66MM contract that Jason Bay received last winter, but never underestimate Scott Boras. Both players hit the market at age 31 and put up very similar triple-slash lines in their walk years (Bay had a .921 OPS in 2009), but Werth is superior defensively and has World Series experience to his credit.
Click here to see our full list of Boras clients.
MLBTR Originals: 9/12/10 – 9/19/10
Here at MLBTR we're all about up-to-the-second hot stove news, but we also provide plenty of original content as well. Let's look back at the week that was in the exclusive-to-MLBTR department…
- Ben Nicholson-Smith went behind the scenes of an MLB trade with some help from Andy MacPhail and Jed Hoyer.
- Ben also did a ton of work on potential pitching moves. He named some alternatives to free agent starters, and listed the teams that could be interested in Cliff Lee as well as innings eaters. He also gave us nine teams that already have their 2011 rotation set, and nine that are likely to bring in some pitching.
- We continued to look at the stock of several upcoming free agents, including Hideki Matsui of the Angels, John Buck of the Blue Jays, Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers, Brian Fuentes of the Twins, and Vicente Padilla of the Dodgers,
- Some players aren't as lucky and get forced into free agency when their team declines to tender them a contract. This week we looked at non-tender candidates Kevin Kouzmanoff of the A's, Bobby Jenks of the White Sox, Cody Ross of the Giants, and Zach Duke of the Pirates,
- This week MLBTR readers voted on the AL East, which player will sign for the most guaranteed money after the season, and whether or not the Red Sox will re-sign Adrian Beltre.
- Ben's chat transcript can be read here.
- I rounded up the latest and greatest from the blogosphere in this week's Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- Howard Megdal's latest Jack Of All Trades feature looked at Mike Lowell.
- If you're relatively new to the trade rumor scene, make sure you check out our handy guide to all the different ways you can use MLBTR.
Odds & Ends: Brenly, DeJesus, Lackey, Reds
Some links to peruse before Yovani Gallardo locks up with Tim Lincecum later tonight…
- The Cubs will consider Bob Brenly for their vacant managerial post, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- David DeJesus is waiting to hear from the Royals about their decision on his $6MM option for next season according to Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star. The club has until October 15th to exercise the option, and GM Dayton Moore said he's "not prepared to say what [they're] doing at this point."
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier says that John Lackey hasn't been worth the risk for the Red Sox yet, and he'll have to buck historical trends to be worth the remainder of his five-year, $82.5MM contract.
- Meanwhile, Jim Donaldson of The Providence Journal jokes that the Sox should be able to ask Lackey and Josh Beckett for refunds given how they've pitched after signing their new deals.
- There will be plenty of competition for a spot in the Cubs rotation next season, writes Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune.
- David Barron of The Houston Chronicle looks at how the Reds are thriving thanks to a mix of young players and veterans.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Hiroki Kuroda
This upcoming free agent pitching class is obviously highlighted by Cliff Lee, but it lost a little luster when Josh Beckett and Tim Hudson signed contract extensions. There's still another high-end pitcher available for teams looking to improve the front of their rotation, however. Dodgers' righthander Hiroki Kuroda is in the final season of the three-year, $35.3MM contract he signed with the team before the 2008 season, and will be able to pawn his services off to the highest bidder this winter.
Kuroda, 35, is wrapping up his finest season in the Major Leagues even if his 10-13 record suggests otherwise. In 182 innings spread across 29 starts, he's posted a 3.36 ERA with 2.3 BB/9 and a career best 7.4 K/9. Through 482.2 big league innings, he owns a rock solid 3.60 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, which is the kind of performance any team would love to add to their rotation.
The one real negative is Kuroda's health track record. He missed close to three weeks with shoulder tendinitis in 2008 then almost two months with an oblique strain last season. A concussion suffered when he was struck by a batted ball took away another three weeks of his 2009 season, but that's a fluke occurrence and we shouldn't count it against his durability. The good news is that Kuroda has skated through the 2010 season healthy and without any significant medical issues.
Even though he has just three years of service time after spending most of his career in Japan, Kuroda can become a free agent through a courtesy that MLB extends to Japanese veterans. He currently projects as a Type-B free agent, though it's far from a given that the Dodgers will offer him arbitration given their uncertain financial state and his $13MM salary this year. While he might not command that kind of annual salary on the open market, there's really no reason Kuroda should have to settle for less than the three-year, $29.75MM deal that former Dodger Randy Wolf signed last winter.
Poll: The AL East
Last Saturday we took a look at the race in the NL West, but let's change leagues and coasts today to look at the battle for the AL East crown.
The Yankees have more or less led the division since mid-June (with a few exceptions here and there), though the Rays have closed the gap this month and the two teams are now separated by just half-a-game. In fact, they've alternated that half-game lead for six days now. The Yanks have been done in by a stretch in which they've won just three of their last 11 games, though Tampa has gone 5-6 during that span and hasn't fully taken advantage.
Of course winning the AL East isn't crucial to either team's playoff hopes. Barring a spectacular collapse, both the Yanks and Rays will make the playoffs thanks to the Wild Card. The Twins are just one game back for the best record in baseball, so winning the East no longer guarantees home field advantage through the AL playoffs like we've assumed basically all season. A division title would be more about bragging rights than anything else.
The Red Sox are seven games out in AL East and are playing spoiler more than anything, but they do have six games left against New York and stranger things have happened. If nothing else, they could make things a little stressful for the teams up top over the next two-plus weeks.
Who will win the AL East?
Click here to vote in the poll, and here to view the results.
Reactions To Joe Torre Stepping Down
Dodgers' manager Joe Torre announced today that he will step down after the season and hand the reins over to Don Mattingly. It's unclear if he will retire or look to manage elsewhere, but that's not enough to stop everyone from chiming in on the move. Let's see what is being written about Torre's decision…
- Dusty Baker spoke fondly of Torre to John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
- Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com says the Dodgers have been grooming Mattingly for the job and have been in constant communication with commissioner Bud Selig's office about their desire to hire him, which is why they did not have to go through the interview process (Twitter links).
- AOL FanHouse's Tom Krasovic doesn't think Mattingly is the right guy for the job.
- FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi states the obvious and says that Mattingly has his hands full with his first managerial position.
- Jack Moore of FanGraphs says if nothing else, this will serve as a decent test of Mattingly's ability to lead in the clubhouse.
- Tom Verducci of SI.com thinks that Torre has accomplished everything he's set out to do as a manager.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman hears that Torre is unlikely to get the Mets' managerial job, which of course is not vacant yet (Twitter link). Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post says he isn't a candidate for the Marlins' job, either.
- Meanwhile, CBSSports.com's Dan Knobler hears that Torre is unlikely to manage anywhere next season (Twitter link).
- ESPN's Buster Olney says (via Twitter) that Torre is tired of the travel, and another job would have to be a "perfect fit."
- Triple-A Albuquerque manager Tim Wallach told Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times that he would prefer to be on Mattingly's staff next year rather than back managing in the minors (Twitter link).
Barret Loux Threw For Astros, Several Others Today
Barret Loux, the sixth overall pick in the 2010 draft that was later declared a free agent by MLB, threw an extended bullpen session for approximately 15 teams in College Station, Texas today according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. The Astros were one of the teams in attendance, and have sincere interest in signing the righthander.
Loux, 21, failed his physical with the Diamondbacks due to shoulder and elbow concerns, and has been free to sign with any team since September 1st. Things have been relatively quiet, however. McTaggart spoke to Houston's assistant general manager/scouting director Bobby Heck, who indicated that Loux's performance today was "pretty consistent" with how he looked this spring, good news considering the medical scare.
Heck also said that Loux's camp isn't in a rush to get a deal in place – he's currently finishing his degree at Texas A&M – but are looking to sign a little later in the fall and know where they'll be for Spring Training.