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Free Agent Faceoff: Justin Turner / J.D. Martinez

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Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.

Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.

Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.

Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.

As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.

With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.

It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.

On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.

So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?

Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
Justin Turner 51.54% (3,600 votes)
J.D. Martinez 48.46% (3,385 votes)
Total Votes: 6,985

White Sox Acquire Tyler Gilbert

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The White Sox have acquired left-hander Tyler Gilbert from the Phillies, per an announcement from Philadelphia. Chicago sent right-hander Aaron Combs back to the Phillies in exchange for Gilbert’s services. Gilbert had been designated for assignment by the Phillies prior to the holidays. The White Sox designated infielder Braden Shewmake for assignment to make room for Gilbert on their 40-man roster.

Gilbert, 31, pitched just 8 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year after signing a minor league deal with the Reds last winter and being traded to Philadelphia back in May. A sixth-round pick by the Phillies back in 2015, he was surrendered to Arizona in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft and made his big league debut as a Diamondback during the 2021 season. The lefty had a rather impressive rookie season, as he posted a 3.15 ERA (135 ERA+) with a 4.27 FIP in 40 innings of work for the Snakes spread between six starts and three relief appearances. The highlight of his rookie campaign (and of his career to this point) was a no-hitter in his first career MLB start, where he struck out five Padres while walking three over his nine hitless innings of work.

Unfortunately, Gilbert’s next two seasons in the desert didn’t go quite as well. He struggled to a 5.23 ERA with a 5.10 FIP in 51 2/3 innings of work between 2022 and ’23, with a paltry 17.9% strikeout rate and a penchant for allowing home runs being the main culprits of the lefty’s difficulties. Those difficulties led to Gilbert being outrighted off the club’s roster following the 2023 season, which led to him electing free agency and signing that aforementioned minor league deal in Cincinnati. After rejoining the Phillies, Gilbert posted a solid enough 3.24 ERA in 8 1/3 innings of work at the big league level and paired that with an excellent run of outings at Triple-A, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 40 frames across 31 appearances for the club’s LeHigh Valley affiliate. Impressive as those minor league numbers were, however, Gilbert found himself squeezed off the club’s 40-man roster just before the holidays due to the Jesús Luzardo trade.

Now that he’s in Chicago, Gilbert could find himself in the mix for starts at the big league level in what figures to be a fairly wide-open competition for starts on the south side. Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson, and Drew Thorpe all seem likely to be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation if healthy, but beyond that trio a number of possible options exist including Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Jake Eder, Ky Bush, and Nick Nastrini. If Gilbert doesn’t make the club’s rotation, it’s to imagine him providing left-handed relief depth alongside Jared Shuster and Cam Booser for the club this year.

In return for Gilbert’s services, the Phillies add a right-handed minor leaguer in Combs. The White Sox’ eighth rounder in the 2024 draft, Combs has just 7 2/3 innings of work at the minor league level under his belt but struck out an impressive 39.4% of opponents at the Single-A level in his pro debut down the stretch last year. Prior to being drafted, Combs posted a 3.24 ERA in 66 2/3 innings of work pitching in the SEC. The youngster just turned 23 last week and is hardly a sure bet to influence the club in 2025, but the impressive stuff he flashed last season could carry him through the minors fairly quickly.

In order to fit Gilbert on their roster, the White Sox part ways with Shewmake. The 27-year-old was a first-round pick by the Braves in 2019 and eventually made his big league debut with the club in 2023, though that cup of coffee lasted just two games and ended before Shewmake recorded his first big league hit. He was shipped to Chicago last winter as part of the trade that brought Aaron Bummer to Atlanta, but dealt with injuries during his first year in Chicago and was limited to just 39 games between Triple-A and the majors. Those games did not go especially well, as he posted a .152/.152/.182 slash line in ten minor league games. That’s more or less in line with what he did in the majors, as well: in 67 trips to the plate, Shewmake hit just .125/.134/.203 (-15 wRC+). The White Sox will have one week to waive or trade Shewmake, and if he clears waivers successfully they’ll have the opportunity to outright him to the minors as non-roster depth for the coming season.

Where Will Alex Bregman End Up?

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December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list come off the board. Left-hander Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the final day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Max Fried (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, and Corbin Burnes (#2) snuck in a deal with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 came to a close. That leaves just one free agent in the top six on the board as we turn towards 2025: infielder Alex Bregman, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #3 free agent at the outset of the winter back in November.

Over his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman has made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star, and a winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t managed to recapture the 8-win form he flashed at his peak in the years since then, he’s remained a well above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. An average of four-plus wins a year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently connected to Bregman this winter, while other suitors of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It’s a market that seems fairly robust, with multiple big market clubs interested.

With that being said, however, Bregman’s leverage in free agency may not be as strong as it was even a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was naturally the incumbent Astros, but a reunion between the sides appears to be off the table at this point as they’ve since signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover the infield corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are seemingly distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reporting last week threw cold water on the possibility of the club landing either Bregman in free agency or Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado via trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane somewhat in recent weeks. One such team could be the Tigers, who were reportedly becoming more serious about their pursuit of Bregman as recently as last week… but signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t outright preclude the Tigers from signing Bregman as well given their wide-open payroll outlook and the club’s relatively unsettled third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Tigers brass might have otherwise felt to add Bregman.

Another potential wild card who may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly has interest in him earlier this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club is likely to be done with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly thereafter by Philadelphia swinging a trade to land left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies would likely need to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.

Still, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clear fits for his services. The Red Sox have been among the teams most frequently discussed in the rumor mill this winter after taking a relative backseat in recent years. While rumored pursuits of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes have not yielded fruit to this point, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority going forward this winter figures to be adding a righty bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while also offering some balance against the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly,  so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been frequently connected to him this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize a reunion with first baseman Pete Alonso over adding Bregman, who would slot in at third base and kick youngster Mark Vientos over to first while likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in the event that they’re unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez to the club’s infield would mean that signing Bregman likely pushes Ernie Clement to the bench (at least barring a trade of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the sort of middle-of-the-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price tag may be giving some teams pause about more aggressively pursuing him. The infielder has seemingly been on the hunt for a $200MM deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction prior to the start of the offseason was that he’d land a seven-year $182MM deal. It’s a price that seemingly made both the Astros and Yankees squeamish in their pursuits of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs are hoping to land Bregman on a deal closer to the six years and $156MM Houston reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with opt-outs similar to the one Carlos Correa signed when he departed Houston a few winters ago, they’ll likely have to wait out his market until closer to the beginning of Spring Training. And the possibility of a “mystery team” swooping in to land Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week) cannot be ruled out, either.

How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he appears to be seeking, or wind up regretting turning down Houston’s reported $156MM offer?

Where Will Bregman Sign?
Tigers 31.57% (5,519 votes)
Red Sox 23.30% (4,073 votes)
Blue Jays 16.16% (2,826 votes)
Mets 11.71% (2,048 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 10.82% (1,892 votes)
Phillies 6.44% (1,126 votes)
Total Votes: 17,484
What Will Bregman Be Guaranteed?
$156MM - $181MM 36.70% (4,896 votes)
$182MM - $199MM 31.33% (4,180 votes)
Less than $156MM 18.09% (2,414 votes)
$200MM - $219MM 10.67% (1,424 votes)
$220MM or more 3.21% (428 votes)
Total Votes: 13,342

The Opener: Thielbar, DFA Limbo, Spending

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Happy New Year from MLBTR! Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into 2025:

1. Thielbar terms to be publicized:

The Cubs wrapped up 2024 with one last signing: left-hander Caleb Thielbar on a one-year deal. Thielbar, 38 later this month, struggled to a 5.32 ERA in 47 1/3 innings of work with the Twins last year but had pitched much better for Minnesota from 2020 to 2023, when he posted a 3.21 ERA (130 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in 174 innings of work. The southpaw figures to feature in Chicago’s middle relief mix, joining other left-handed options such as Rob Zastryzny and Luke Little. Notably, the terms of Thielbar’s deal with the Cubs have not yet been reported. Even heading into his age-38 season following a down season, it wouldn’t be a shock if Thielbar garnered significantly more than the major league minimum given his past track record of success. It’s likely that more clarity regarding the specifics of Thielbar’s contract will be made available in the coming days.

2. Players in DFA limbo:

The timer for clubs to make decisions regarding players in DFA limbo was paused over the holidays, but figures to restart now that 2025 has begun. A number of players including Phillies left-hander Tyler Gilbert, Astros infielder Grae Kessinger, and Rangers catcher Sam Huff have been facing uncertain futures that will be resolved in the coming days. Within the next week, all players currently in DFA limbo figure to either be placed on waivers or traded. Clubs will have the opportunity to outright any of their players who clear waivers during this time to the minor leagues, but players who have previously been outrighted or have at least three years of MLB service time can reject that assignment in favor of free agency if they so choose.

3. Will these teams spend in 2025?

As 2024 came to a close, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look yesterday at each club’s spending to this point in the offseason. The Mets, naturally, led the way by a significant margin thanks to the $765MM commitment they made to Juan Soto last month, but the other end of the list is far more interesting. Five clubs have yet to spend a dime in free agency, though that number drops to four if you consider right-hander Michael Wacha re-upping with the Royals in the days leading up to free agency to be a fresh signing rather than an extension. Joining the Royals at the bottom of the spending barrel are the Mariners, Twins, Padres, and Cardinals. Each team finished with an above .500 record last year, but at the very least Minnesota, San Diego, and St. Louis all appear to face stiff payroll limitations this winter. Will these clubs become more active in free agency now that we’ve moved into 2025, with just six weeks until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training?

Rangers Sign Joc Pederson

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The Rangers have officially announced the signing of designated hitter Joc Pederson to a two-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. Pederson, a client of Excel Sports Management, can opt out of the contract after next season. He’s reportedly guaranteed $37MM.

Pederson, 32, has now signed his fifth consecutive contract that allows him to re-enter free agency after just one year. The slugger first reached free agency during the 2020-21 offseason and signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. He followed that up with a one-year deal with the Giants before accepting the Qualifying Offer from the club the following offseason, and most recently signed yet another one-year pact with the Diamondbacks last winter. His newest deal offers a bit more security, however, given that it comes with a player option for a second season.

The constant trips through free agency haven’t stopped Pederson from being one of the most productive lefty bats in the majors in recent years. Since making his second career All-Star appearance in 2022 as a member of the Giants, Pederson has slashed a fantastic .262/.365/.485 with a 135 wRC+. That figure leaves him with the 16th-highest wRC+ in baseball among qualified hitters over the past three seasons, and he’s sandwiched comfortably between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez on that leaderboard.

Given that he’s provided superstar-caliber offense on the cheap to multiple teams in recent years, it may seem somewhat surprising for Pederson to wind up with yet another relatively short-term deal that guarantees him less than $20MM per year. That discrepancy is primarily due to Pederson’s extremely limited profile. While he’s a phenomenal hitter who rakes against right-handed pitching, his profile features a massive platoon split and he’s typically been at his best throughout his career when he sits against same-handed pitching as much as possible. He’s a career .210/.300/.330 (78 wRC+) hitter against left-handed pitching and even in the past three seasons has floated a pedestrian 104 wRC+ against southpaws.

Perhaps that on its own wouldn’t be enough to stop Pederson from getting a hefty contract in free agency, but he’s also a poor defender in the outfield who didn’t put on a glove a single time during his year in Arizona after starting just 23 games in the outfield in San Francisco the prior year. His last season as a regular on defense in 2022 saw Pederson struggle to a -11 Outs Above Average figure that landed him near the bottom of the league’s leaderboards. Even with prodigious hitting talent, Pederson’s earning power has been consistently limited on the open market due to relatively minimal upside available in signing a platoon bat who’s increasingly restricted to DH-only duties. With that context, Pederson actually did quite well in landing the deal he got from the Rangers; his $37MM guarantee significantly outpaces the two-year, $24MM pact MLBTR predicted he would land when placing him as the #24 free agent on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list at the outset of the winter.

For the Rangers, the addition of Pederson offers some much-needed thump to a lineup that finished just 22nd in the majors with a 95 wRC+ last year. That includes utterly abysmal production at DH, where Texas managed just a 65 wRC+ that was second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Reds. The addition of Pederson not only adds another big lefty bat to the Rangers lineup to complement his former Dodgers teammate Corey Seager but also makes up for the loss of Nathaniel Lowe, who the club traded to the Nationals just last night. The additions of Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, and Jake Burger to the club’s lineup in conjunction with better health from youngsters Josh Jung and Evan Carter should give the Rangers a much stronger offense up and down the batting order while allowing the club to lean less heavily on utility man Josh Smith, who was one of the team’s top offensive contributors in the first half but faded to hit just .215/.265/.300 after the All-Star break.

With Pederson now in the fold, RosterResource projects the Rangers for a payroll of just under $217MM for 2025, and that figure jumps up to just over $229MM for luxury tax purposes. That leaves around $11MM left for the club to work with before the first luxury tax threshold, which it was reported earlier this winter that the club hopes to duck under next year. While the rotation was addressed by bringing back Nathan Eovaldi and the lineup appears to be in good shape at the moment, the club still appears to be a piece or two short in the bullpen even after adding Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Robert Garcia. It’s possible the Rangers could look to follow the example they laid out in the deal that sent Lowe to D.C. in exchange for Garcia and deal a potential trade candidate like Leody Taveras, Dane Dunning, or Jon Gray in a deal that bolsters their relief corps while also freeing up payroll space that could help them land a proven closer such as Kirby Yates or David Robertson, both of whom pitched well for the Rangers in 2024 but elected free agency last month.

Now that Pederson is headed to Texas, a handful of other suitors will need to look elsewhere. The incumbent Diamondbacks reportedly had interest in a reunion with Pederson earlier this month, though it’s possible that the club’s recent trade for Josh Naylor eliminated that need and leaves them in position instead to look for some right-handed thump to replace outgoing first baseman Christian Walker. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were connected to both Pederson and Naylor in the rumor mill and at this point could be further motivated to land a notable bat such as Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez now that many of the club’s lower-level targets have come off the board.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Pederson were discussing a contract. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first with the agreement. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported the two-year, $37MM guarantee and the opt-out.

Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler

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TODAY: The breakdown of Buehler’s deal is provided by MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links), who reports that the contract also contains a $25MM mutual option for the 2026 season.  Buehler receives a $3.05MM signing bonus, $15MM in base salary, and then a $3MM buyout of the mutual option, totaling the aforementioned $21.05MM guarantee.

As much as $2.5MM in bonus money is also available.  Buehler will unlock the first $500K of that cash when he makes his 20th start of the season, and he’ll earn another $500K upon making his 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th starts of the season.

DEC. 28: The Red Sox officially announced the Buehler signing.

DEC. 23: The Red Sox are in agreement with right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year deal worth $21.05MM, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is pending a physical and includes incentives that could raise the value beyond that aforementioned figure. Buehler is an Excel Sports Management client.

It’s an interesting deal for Buehler, as the $21.05MM guarantee perfectly mirrors that of the Qualifying Offer. Both Buehler himself and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta were considered borderline candidates to be extended the QO at the outset of the winter. Ultimately, the Dodgers declined to extend that offer to Buehler while the Red Sox did so for Pivetta but were rebuffed. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to secure the same guarantee he would’ve gotten had the Dodgers extended him the QO while allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its young rotation on a one-year deal that mirrors what they offered Pivetta last month.

The 30-year-old right-hander was among the league’s most talented young starters during his rookie season back in 2018, and pitched to an excellent 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in a four-season stretch from 2018-21. That stretch concluded with Buehler finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting behind Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Max Scherzer in a race that seemingly cemented his status as one of the league’s top aces. That career trajectory was thrown off the rails early in the 2022 season, however. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery.

Buehler wouldn’t return to a major league mound until May of 2024, nearly two full years later, and struggled badly upon returning. Additional injuries limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he took the mound the right-hander struggled badly. In all, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. With that being said, the righty did manage to end his season on a positive note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to the World Series championship this year. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired off ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and the World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.

That combination of a strong postseason, a terrible regular season, a fraught injury history, and a dominant track record made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the ultimate high-risk, high-reward signing. To that end, it’s perhaps no surprise that he garnered interest from a huge number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also garnered interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics, and Braves this winter. That wide-ranging interest made it apparent early in the winter that Buehler was likely to surpass the one-year, $15MM deal MLBTR predicted he would land as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Buehler was ranked as the #37 free agent this winter. It even seemed to open the door to the possibility the right-hander would be able to land a mutli-year deal with opt-outs; while he ultimately settled for a straight one-year pact, his $21.05MM salary in 2025 is likely much healthier than what he would’ve received on an annual basis on a multi-year deal.

For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to a rotation already full of it. If Buehler manages to rebound to the form he showed earlier in his career, he’ll form a daunting front two in the Boston rotation alongside lefty Garrett Crochet with right-handers Lucas Giolito and Tanner Houck joining them to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler have also significantly deepened the group, as right-handers Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell all figure to be in the conversation for starts as well after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast interesting upside plays Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer.

The addition of Buehler brings the club’s payroll for 2025 up to just over $175MM, according to RosterResource. The figure is substantially higher for luxury tax purposes, however, sitting just under $212MM. That leaves the club with about $29MM to work with before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last surpassed that first threshold in 2022, but there’s been no indication from club brass that the first threshold represents a hard limit on their spending amid what has been a fairly busy offseason for the club. With the rotation seemingly solidified, it seems likely the club’s priorities will now shift towards adding a right-handed bat to their lineup, whether that comes in the form of an outfielder such as Teoscar Hernández or an infielder like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

Dodgers Expected To Discuss Extension With Dave Roberts

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The Dodgers are expected to discuss a contract extension with longtime manager Dave Roberts this offseason, per a report from Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. Roberts’ current contract is slated to expire following the 2025 season.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Dodgers would look to lock up their skipper before Spring Training begins. Club brass acknowledged last month (as noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya at the time) that the sides had not yet discussed an extension in the aftermath of the club’s World Series championship but was quick to add that he hopes to keep Roberts in the dugout long-term. Even aside from those comments, teams often prefer to avoid having managers play out the final year of their contract without an extension in hand in hopes of avoid a “lame duck” situation, and it’s difficult to argue that Roberts’s performance hasn’t merited an extension.

Since joining the Dodgers as manager back in 2016, Roberts has led the club to nine consecutive postseason appearances, eight division titles, four NL Pennants, and two World Series championships. Ignoring the 60-game 2020 campaign where the Dodgers went 43-17, the club has never won less than 91 games in a season under Roberts’s guidance, and after winning the NL Manager of the Year award in 2016 he’s subsequently been a finalist for the award two more times and received votes in every season of his time at the helm in Los Angeles. Overall, Roberts has a lifetime 851-507 as a manager, giving him a .627 winning percentage. That’s the highest winning percentage of any manager in MLB history with at least 1000 games managed in his career and translates to approximately 102 wins in a 162-game season.

Given the Dodgers’ desire to keep Roberts in the fold long-term and his phenomenal work during his tenure as L.A.’s skipper, Harris goes on to suggest that a record-shattering extension could be on the table for the longtime skipper. Last offseason, Craig Counsell signed a record-breaking extension with the Cubs that guaranteed him $40MM over five years. Counsell is widely considered to be among the best managers in the game at the moment, but he’s never led a team to the World Series or won a Manager of the Year award. In other words, Roberts’s resume is much more robust than Counsell’s was last winter, and it’s not hard to imagine a high-spending club like the Dodgers rewarding their skipper with a record-breaking deal.

Of course, that’s by no means guaranteed to occur. Counsell signed his $40MM deal with Chicago on the open market after playing out the final season of his deal with Milwaukee and had a number of teams vying for his services as the Guardians, Astros, and Mets joined the incumbent Brewers in vying for his services before he ultimately landed on the north side. That stands in contrast to Red Sox skipper Alex Cora, who appeared poised to follow in Counsell’s footsteps and test the open market before ultimately opting to sign a three-year extension in Boston that guaranteed him around $21.75MM total.

Cora doesn’t quite compare to Roberts in terms of resume, with just one World Series championship and a .536 winning percentage under his belt in six seasons as manager in Boston. Even so, the extension between the Red Sox and their well-regarded skipper came in at just over half the total guarantee the Cubs offered Counsell and with a lower yearly salary. That outcome at least left the door open to the possibility that Counsell’s record-setting deal with Chicago was more of an outlier caused by multiple aggressive suitors rather than a new norm for manager salaries in the league.

Cubs, Marlins Swap Matt Mervis, Vidal Brujan

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1:28pm: The deal is now official, per a club announcement by the Marlins.

12:27pm: The Marlins are set to acquire first baseman Matt Mervis from the Cubs, according to a report from Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that infielder Vidal Bruján is headed to Chicago in exchange for Mervis’s services. Brujan had been designated for assignment by the Marlins last week. Maddie Lee of the Sun Times also reports that the Cubs are sending cash to Miami alongside Mervis.

Mervis, 26, signed with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent back in 2020. After struggling in his first taste of professional action in 2021, the slugger tore up the minor leagues in 2022, slashing an excellent .309/.379/.606 with 40 doubles and 36 homers in 137 games across three levels of the minors. That included a long run of success at the Triple-A level, where he hit .297/.383/.593 with 15 doubles and 15 homers in just 57 games. The performance was strong enough to earn Mervis some top-100 prospect buzz during the 2022-23 offseason, and his rapid ascent through the minors provided some optimism for a Cubs franchise that had recently dealt longtime first baseman Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees prior to the trade deadline in 2021.

Unfortunately, Mervis wasn’t able to make the most of his opportunity when he first reached the big leagues in 2023. While he continued to rake at Triple-A (.282/.399/.533 in 100 games), he struggled badly in 99 big league plate appearances with a lackluster .167/.242/.289 slash line that was good for a 48 wRC+ that year. Strong batted ball data and a .317 xwOBA indicated that Mervis may have been slightly unlucky in his first cup of coffee in the majors, but his hefty 32.3% strikeout rate would’ve been a significant red flag even if he had gotten better fortune in terms of batted balls finding holes. That led the Cubs to pivot away from Mervis last winter, trading for Dodgers prospect Michael Busch and installing him as the club’s everyday first baseman.

Busch took off as an above-average hitter right out of the gate with Chicago, posting a 119 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR in his rookie season. Mervis, by contrast, appeared in just nine games and posted a dreadful -4 wRC+ in that limited playing time. Even his minor league numbers took a step back this year, as he hit just .235/.329/.434 (97 wRC+) in 81 games at Triple-A this past season. All this made Mervis entirely expendable for Chicago, so the club opting to trade him is hardly a shock. With a rebuilding Marlins club, the Triple-A slugger figures to get a larger big league opportunity than he ever received in Chicago. He’ll compete for playing time at first base with incumbent first baseman Jonah Bride, who impressed with a 123 wRC+ in 71 games for the Marlins last year but has yet to complete a wire-to-wire season in the majors ate age 29.

While Mervis is hardly a surefire big league piece, the Marlins are giving up very little to land him. Bruján, 27, was DFA’d by the Marlins last week to clear 40-man roster space after he struggled to produce as a big league regular in 2024. Once a consensus top-100 prospect with the Rays, Bruján failed to hit at all in 99 games with Tampa across three seasons before being dealt to Miami last winter. The Marlins made him a fixture of their bench mix this year, but he hit just .222/.303/.319 (73 wRC+) in 278 trips to the plate. Despite that lackluster performance at the plate, Brujan did provide some modest value as a decent baserunner and an extremely versatile fielder. The switch-hitter mostly split his time between shortstop, second base, and third base in Miami last year but is also capable of playing all three outfield spots and even made brief cameos at first base and on the pitchers mound last year.

That should be enough to earn Brujan the opportunity to compete for a bench job with the Cubs this spring. Chicago has completely overhauled their bench mix this offseason, parting ways with Christian Bethancourt, Mike Tauchman, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom last month to make way for alternative options. Carson Kelly joined the club’s roster to form a tandem with Miguel Amaya that will occupy one bench spot, and outfielder Alexander Canario currently seems poised to act as the club’s reserve outfielder behind Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Kyle Tucker. That leaves two spots up for grabs, and Brujan currently appears poised to compete with Rule 5 draft selection Gage Workman and internal options Miles Mastrobuoni and Luis Vasquez for those two spots, though another external addition could certainly grab at least one of those bench roles and only the catching tandem appears to be completely locked in for 2025.

Nationals Sign Patrick Weigel To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals have signed right-hander Patrick Weigel to a minor league deal, as noted by Talk Nats. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training.

Weigel, 30, was a seventh-round pick by the Braves back in 2015. The righty worked his way up through Atlanta’s minor league system to make his big league debut during the shortened 2020 season, but was shelled in his lone appearance to the tune of two runs on two hits, three walks, and a wild pitch during an outing that saw him record no strikeouts and just two outs overall. That rough big league debut proved to be his only work in the majors with Atlanta, as he was shipped to Milwaukee as part of the Orlando Arcia trade in 2021. Weigel was used as an up-and-down reliever with the Brewers, for whom he delivered three decent but unremarkable relief appearances. In four innings of work that year, he pitched to a 4.50 ERA with nine strikeouts and four walks.

Despite that serviceable work in his brief time in the majors during 2021, his time at Triple-A Nashville was nothing short of disastrous. In 43 1/3 innings of work at the level, Weigel posted a brutal 7.27 ERA while walking 17.6% of opponents faced. That complete lack of command led the Brewers to designate the right-hander for assignment on the day of the 2021 trade deadline, leading him to elect minor league free agency during the offseason. He eventually caught on with the Mariners on a minor league deal for the 2022 season and pitched to a decent 4.21 ERA in 62 innings of work, though his 13.9% walk rate still left much to be desired.

Since departing the Mariners during the 2022-23 offseason, Weigel has bounced between independent leagues. He pitched for the American Association’s Kansas City Monarchs in 2023, and his solid work there led him to split the 2024 campaign between the Reds’ minor league system and the Mexican League’s Saraperos de Saltillo. Weigel dominated the Double-A level with the Reds (0.90 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate) but was lit up at Triple-A to the tune of five runs in just two innings of work. Now, he’s poised to try his hand with a fifth MLB organization. The Nationals are surely hoping they’ll be able to help Weigel rein in his command, and if he can get his walk rate into a more manageable range going forward it’s easy to imagine him be a useful non-roster depth option for the club out of the bullpen this year.

Blue Jays Showed “Strong Interest” In Gleyber Torres

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The Blue Jays showed “strong interest” in second baseman Gleyber Torres early in his free agency, per a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Petzold goes on to report that the Giants, Reds, and Guardians were among the teams to show interest in Torres before he signed with the Tigers. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe previously reported that the Red Sox showed interest in the infielder but never reached the point of making a formal offer, and Petzold confirms that interest.

The Blue Jays made plenty of sense as a speculative fit for Torres early in the winter, and he was even loosely connected to them earlier this winter. After losing Matt Chapman in free agency last winter and dealing away both Justin Turner and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa over the summer, the Jays entered the winter in need of infield help. In a thin market for infielders, Torres was among the better options not expected to command a long-term, nine-figure contract. In fact, Petzold notes that Torres emphasized to his agent this winter that he wasn’t interested in anything more than a strict one-year contract, even eschewing the possibility of a two-year deal with an opt-out clause.

Petzold adds that Torres took this stance in hopes of betting on himself and landing the aforementioned nine-figure deal he was sure to be locked out of this winter following an up-and-down platform season that saw him finish with a 104 wRC+ and just 1.7 fWAR. That desire for a one-year deal likely made him an especially attractive target for a Blue Jays team that not only faces plenty of uncertainty following the 2025 season thanks to the impending free agency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also thanks to the club’s group of young infielders who could theoretically play their way into regular roles in the future.

It’s not clear if the Jays’ reported interest in Torres persisted even after they traded for second baseman Andrés Giménez earlier this winter. Even if it had, though, Torres apparent preference for remaining at second base likely would have created a major obstacle for the sides, likely leaving Toronto in a position where they’d need to deal shortstop Bo Bichette and move Giménez to short in order to open up the keystone for Torres. While Bichette is coming off an even more difficult season (71 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR) than Torres’s 2024 campaign, Bichette had been a consistent four-to-five win player throughout his career prior to getting bit by the injury bug last year and would be a difficult player for the Jays to part with unless they got a hefty package in return.

As for the other reported suitors for Torres’s services, the Guardians likely only became a fit for Torres after trading Giménez to Toronto. Juan Brito, Gabriel Arias, and Daniel Schneemann currently figure to split time at the keystone for Cleveland in Giménez’s absence, but a clear everyday player like Torres would be a definitive upgrade over that timeshare between youngsters. What’s more, moving on from Giménez and his hefty $106.5MM contract likely helped free up payroll that would make signing a player of Torres’s caliber possible even for the low-budget Guardians. With Torres now off the market and headed to a division rival, it’s entirely feasible that the Guardians could now pivot to another second base option available in free agency like Jorge Polanco or Whit Merrifield.

The Reds, by contrast, are a somewhat surprising suitor for Torres. The club has plenty of infield options available already, with Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain currently locking up the middle infield while some combination of Noelvi Marte, Jeimer Candelario, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand handle the infield corners. Adding a pure second baseman who lacks positional versatility like Torres would’ve complicated matters, though it’s certainly possible to squeeze him in by shifting McLain over to the hot corner, utilizing Candelario at first base, and leaving Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to fight for plate appearances at DH or in a part-time role.

Given the club’s dreadful 87 wRC+ overall last year, even Torres’s diminished results from 2024 would provide the Reds with a substantial boost to their lineup. That boost may have made figuring out a way to squeeze Torres into the lineup worth doing, but the Reds appear to have already more or less maxed out their payroll and seem unlikely to have been able to match the $15MM salary Detroit offered the infielder. The Giants are another reported suitor whose interest in Torres comes with complications, particularly given the fact that the club landed shortstop Willy Adames on the eve of the Winter Meetings. It’s possible that San Francisco’s interest in Torres predated their deal with Adames, though it’s also feasible the club was willing to sign both players and push Tyler Fitzgerald into a utility role entering the season.

As for the Red Sox, the club certainly made sense as a fit for Torres given their wide open second base situation. Boston acquired Vaughn Grissom from the Braves last winter in hopes that he could lock up the position, but injuries and ineffectiveness led to something of a lost season in 2024. That leaves the position without a clear incumbent headed into 2025, with Grissom, David Hamilton, and top prospect Kristian Campbell among the internal options. Adding Torres to the mix would’ve eased the pressure on Campbell to perform immediately upon reaching the majors while providing an upgrade over Grissom and Hamilton who bats from the right side to help balance the club’s lefty-heavy lineup. Boston is also known to have some level of interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, but it’s possible that their reported interest in Torres could signal a willingness to sign a hitter closer to the middle of the free agent market like Ha-Seong Kim.

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