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Wilyer Abreu

Red Sox Notes: Abreu, Devers, Newcomb

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Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu has been out of action this spring due to a gastrointestinal virus that, as of last week, had kept the 25-year-old from even swinging a bat this spring. That led to plenty of questions about whether or not he would be ready in time for Opening Day, but as noted by Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic yesterday, he was cleared to play in today’s Grapefruit League game.

It was a major step forward for Abreu, who told reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) that he expects to be ready for Opening Day later this month after acknowledging that he’ll need “some more reps” before he’s in regular season form. Notably, Abreu lost considerable weight as a result of the virus but has said that he doesn’t view that weight loss as a concern as he still feels as strong and mobile as ever. If Abreu does prove to be ready for Opening Day, that would be a major relief for a Red Sox lineup that appears poised to rely on a platoon of him and Rob Refsnyder in right field this season. The sixth place finisher in AL Rookie of the Year voting last year, Abreu won a Gold Glove for his work in right field while hitting .253/.322/.459 (114 wRC+), including a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Abreu was joined in his return to the lineup by star teammate Rafael Devers. Devers has gotten plenty of attention this spring after the club’s signing of third baseman Alex Bregman, as the Red Sox have thusfar refused to anoint either Devers or Bregman as the Opening Day third baseman in the aftermath of Devers’s vocal opposition to a move off the hot corner. The slugger has struck a more conciliatory tone in recent days, however, as Bregman has been used almost exclusively at third this spring while Devers was slowed in camp after rehabbing a shoulder injury throughout the offseason. Devers was back in the lineup alongside Abreu today, however, and manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Smith) that the duo will get time on the backfields tomorrow before returning to the lineup on Monday as they ease back into regular playing time.

With Devers and Abreu both seemingly making good pace to start for the Red Sox on Opening Day, much of the intrigue in the final weeks of Red Sox camp seems likely to be focused on the rotation. Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Tanner Houck will feature in the club’s starting five, but the last two spots are up for grabs after Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford were all delayed in camp by various injuries. 40-man roster arms Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, and Quinn Priester have long been known to be in the conversation for those spots, but Cora told reporters (including Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe) today that non-roster southpaw Sean Newcomb is also in the mix for a rotation job.

Newcomb, 31, was a first-round pick by the Angels back in 2014 and had success in both the rotation and bullpen with Atlanta during the early years of his career. He posted a 3.87 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 332 1/3 innings of work across the 2017 to 2019 seasons, but the wheels came off during the shortened 2020 season and he’s struggled every since. Over the past five seasons, he’s posted a 6.66 ERA with a 5.49 FIP in 98 2/3 innings, the majority of which came out of the bullpen. The southpaw has been nothing short of dominant for the Red Sox this spring, however, and his 0.93 ERA in 9 2/3 frames has seemingly given Boston’s decision-makers enough to think about that he has a chance at starting the season not just on the roster, but in the rotation.

Wilyer Abreu May Not Be Ready For Opening Day

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Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu has yet to appear in a spring game or even begin full baseball activities due to a bout with a gastrointestinal virus. Exact details on the illness are a bit murky. MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith wrote on Feb. 28 that Abreu looked noticeably thinner in camp. Abreu acknowledged to Smith that the virus has indeed caused him to lose “a little bit of weight” but suggested he thinks that could actually prove beneficial, as he feels more “in form” than he was last year.

While Abreu has taken an optimistic tone about his chances of being ready for Opening Day, The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey cast some doubt on that possibility this morning, reporting that Abreu has only been tracking pitches thus far and yet to even swing a bat. Manager Alex Cora suggested that Abreu is a ways behind schedule. There’s no definitive declaration that Abreu won’t be in the lineup versus the Rangers on March 27, but that first game is only 20 days out.

Abreu, 25, came to the Red Sox in the 2022 deadline deal that sent catcher Christian Vazquez to Houston. He made his MLB debut in 2023 and broke out with a terrific rookie showing in 2024, his first full season in the majors. Last year saw Abreu produce a solid .253/.322/.459 batting line with 15 homers, 33 doubles, a pair of triples and an 8-for-11 performance in stolen bases over the life of 132 games/447 plate appearances. He floundered in 67 plate appearances versus lefties but thrived against right-handed pitching and, above all else, proved himself one of the best defensive players in baseball — regardless of position.

By measure of Statcast, Abreu was nine runs better than average in right field. Sports Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved metric pegged him at a massive +17. Both outstanding marks came in less than a full season’s worth of innings at the position (921). No right fielder in MLB provided more total value, per Statcast or DRS. (Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio and Jonny DeLuca were better on a rate basis but in smaller samples of innings.)

Unsurprisingly, Abreu won the first of what will likely be multiple Gold Glove Awards in his career. He also finished sixth in AL Rookie of the Year voting and firmly entrenched himself in Boston’s outfield moving forward. It’s a crowded mix with everyone healthy, though if Abreu’s not ready for the season opener, that could lend some short-term clarity to what’s right now something of a logjam.

With a normal spring for Abreu, the expectation would’ve been for him to slot into right field, with 2024 breakout MVP candidate Jarren Duran in left and fellow defensive standout Ceddanne Rafaela in center. The Red Sox, of course, have two of the most electric and also near-MLB-ready prospects in the sport: Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony. Many outlets regard the latter as the top position-playing prospect in the game. Campbell has played more second base than outfield and is also in the mix at that position, though Boston’s signing of Alex Bregman could push Campbell into more of an outfield role — depending where he ultimately lines up on the diamond.

Even if Abreu isn’t ready for Opening Day, it’s not necessarily a lock that Campbell or Anthony would get the call in the outfield. For starters, neither is on the 40-man roster yet. Carrying either would require a corresponding 40-man move. More importantly, if Abreu is facing a short-term absence, the Sox may not want to bring up such a touted prospect for what amounts to a small handful of games. The 20-year-old Anthony only has 35 Triple-A games under his belt, after all, while the 22-year-old Campbell has just 19. Utilityman Rob Refsnyder and designated hitter Masataka Yoshida could certainly step into the outfield to help fill any short-term absences. Refsnyder would likely see plenty of outfield work as a platoon partner for Abreu anyhow.

Red Sox Injury Notes: Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Rotation, Abreu

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When the Red Sox opened camp last week, Kutter Crawford stood out as an immediate injury concern due to a lingering knee problem that first arose last April.  The situation hasn’t much improved, as manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links) and other reporters that Crawford’s right patellar tendon is still giving him discomfort following a long-toss session on Thursday and a bullpen session yesterday.

“Opening Day, right now, is an ’if.’  Let’s see what happens,” Cora said.  “[Crawford is] not feeling well.  He’s behind. We’ve got to make sure the knee is good so the shoulder doesn’t suffer.”

Unfortunately for the Sox, Crawford isn’t the only pitcher facing uncertainty early in camp, as Brayan Bello has been dealing with shoulder soreness since the start of spring camp.  Cora said Bello will undergo a strength test tomorrow, as the Red Sox continue to evaluate the right-hander’s status.  To date, Bello has been throwing, but the team has been taking it relatively slowly with this progression, and Cora said Bello hasn’t thrown any bullpens.  Between the two starters, Crawford seems to be more of a question mark than Bello, as Cora said that “with Kutter, that’s the one it looks like is going to be long.”

With over a month before Opening Day, there is plenty of time for either pitcher to still get healthy for the season in general, even if the Red Sox could be cautious in placing Crawford and/or Bello on the 15-day injured list just to provide more ramp-up time.  In theory, Boston has a good deal of pitching depth on hand in the form of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer, so any of these arms could fill in for Crawford, Bello, or Lucas Giolito, who is still working through his rehab from an internal brace surgery from last March.

Only five proper starters will be needed in the early going, as Cora confirmed that Boston will be using a five-man rotation.  Reports in January indicated that the Sox were at least thinking about a six-man staff in order to best utilize and manage its starting depth, but Cora said “we haven’t talked about a six-man.  You guys have talked about it.  If we go that route, it’s for a reason.  For right now, we’re taking the best five and using the bullpen.”

This lines the staff up as Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Giolito if healthy enough for Opening Day, and then potentially one of the depth starters if Bello and Crawford indeed aren’t available.  Plans could certainly change given Boston’s busy early schedule, as both Cotillo and Cora noted that the team plays on 19 of the regular season’s first 20 days.

The injury bug is also impacting Boston’s position players, as Wilyer Abreu has yet to start workouts due to a gastrointestinal virus.  A team spokesperson told Cotillo and other reporters that Abreu received “some abnormal labs” on his illness, but the “labs have been getting better, and he’s feeling better, but they’re waiting for those to get back to a normal range before baseball activity.”

More testing is coming on Monday, Cora said, and Abreu will sit through the weekend.  A timeline isn’t in place for how much time Abreu could still miss, or whether or not this absence could cost him any time on the injured list at the start of the season.  Abreu is slated for another heavy role in Boston’s outfield this season, as the Gold Glover looks to build on a very successful rookie year.

Red Sox Reportedly “Open” To Triston Casas Trade

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The Red Sox have made plain that their top priority this winter (except, perhaps, for their pursuit of free agent superstar Juan Soto) is improving their starting rotation. That’s led the club to be connected to a number of top free agent and trade candidates throughout the winter so far, ranging from Corbin Burnes and Max Fried in free agency to Garrett Crochet via the trade market. Earlier this winter, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated that the club had no interest in parting with young first baseman Triston Casas in trade this winter, praising him as a player with “40-home run potential” who he described himself as “excited” to have on the team.

While that infatuation with Casas’s skill set may be true, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported earlier today that the Red Sox have been “open” to including Casas in a trade that achieves their goal of adding a pitcher to the front of their rotation. What’s more, Speier goes on to report that one executive from a rival AL club noted that he Red Sox had offered Casas as the headliner in a package for one of his team’s pitchers. That openness to dealing Casas comes as something of a surprise given Breslow’s public comments last month but Speier cautions that while the club is “exploring all avenues” to improve this winter, including the possibility of a Casas trade, the Red Sox actually dealing the youngster remains unlikely given that they’d likely be selling low after a season where he appeared in just 63 games due to torn cartilage in his ribcage.

When healthy enough to take the field, Casas hit quite well for the Red Sox this year with a .241/.337/.462 slash line (119 wRC+) and 13 homers in 243 trips to the plate. With that being said, there were some red flags in his profile this year that may give interested clubs pause. Notably, he struck out at an elevated 31.7% clip this year that helped hold him back from reaching the incredible heights he flashed after the All-Star break in 2023, when he crushed the ball to the tune of a .317/.417/.617 slash line in a 211 plate appearance sample that nearly matches his shortened 2024 campaign. Given that tantalizing upside, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Red Sox would be hesitant to part with Casas following an injury-plagued season that raised questions about his strikeout rate.

To that end, deals involving Casas are far from the only type of trade the Red Sox have explored this winter. Speier notes that Boston has looked into trades with various clubs that come in several forms, with Casas, rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu, and some of the club’s top prospects all being potential headliners for various deals the club has discussed this winter. Speier suggests that both top outfield prospect Roman Anthony and top second base prospect Kristian Campbell are considered “entirely off-limits” in trade talks, but that still leaves a number of exciting prospects in the Red Sox farm available in the right trade, potentially even including catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Marcelo Mayer.

The club has also, of course, explored free agency as they look for rotation upgrades. The club has been connected to top pitchers like Burnes and Fried throughout the winter, but they’ve also seemingly been involved at lower tiers of the pitching market as well in their search for arms. Robert Murray of FanSided reported yesterday that the Red Sox made a “serious push” for Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber before he re-signed in Cleveland, and Bieber reportedly turned down more money from other clubs in order to return to the only organization he’s known as a professional. Additionally, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported earlier today that the Red Sox were among the teams interested in Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. Holmes landed in Queens as a starting pitcher after spending the majority of his big league career as a reliever, but Rosenthal and Sammon emphasized that it’s not clear whether Boston was among the clubs interested in Holmes as a starter or if they intended to use him out of the bullpen had they ultimately signed him.

That interest in Bieber (and Holmes, if they planned to put him in the rotation) suggests that the Red Sox could be willing to get creative to add pitching talent to their rotation, even as they appear focused on adding a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm. The Red Sox rotation certainly has room for multiple starters given that Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford seem to be the only hurlers locked into rotation spots next year, and pairing an ace-level pitcher like Burnes, Fried, or Crochet with an intriguing bounce-back option would be a good way for the club to raise the ceiling in their rotation substantially without needing to land two top-of-the-market pitchers. Max Scherzer and Tomoyuki Sugano are among the interesting one-year veteran options this winter who could have substantial upside, while Jeff Hoffman stands out as a reliever who has received interest as a starter this offseason.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  The utility Gold Glove was determined in a separate fashion, via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

National League winners….

American League winners….

AL East Notes: Duran, Romano, Orioles, Abreu

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The Red Sox haven’t yet discussed a contract extension with Jarren Duran, the outfielder told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo earlier this week, though Duran doesn’t seem bothered by the lack of talks.  “I’m just here to play baseball.  If they come talk to me, then they come talk to me, but I’m just enjoying playing baseball with this team,” Duran said.  The Sox aren’t exactly on a ticking clock, as Duran doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this coming winter, though he will likely qualify for Super Two status and thus earn a fourth arbitration year.

That extra arb year could make things very lucrative for Duran, given how has continued to up his game in 2024.  He has hit .280/.347/.478 over 350 plate appearances this season, just about matching the numbers he posted over 362 PA in 2023.  When combined with his excellent baserunning and solid defense in left and center field, Duran has generated 3.1 fWAR, a number topped by only eight players this season.

Considering how Duran struggled in his first two big league seasons, it isn’t surprising that the Red Sox wanted a little more data beyond just 2023 to make sure that Duran’s breakout was for real.  Signing Duran to an extension will be a lot more expensive now than it would’ve been last winter, yet it still might allow the Red Sox to gain some certainty over Duran’s escalating arb salaries, and add another year of control or two over a player they might now view as a longer-term building block.  That said, Duran’s age could also be a factor, as he turns 28 in September, and so Boston already has him arb-controlled through his age-31 season.

More from around the AL East…

  • Jordan Romano’s throwing progression has been paused due to some elbow soreness, Blue Jays manager John Schneider told MLB.com’s Henry Palattella (X link) and other media.  Romano was supposed to pitch off a mound today for the first time since being placed on the 15-day IL due to right elbow inflammation back on June 1, but now that plan has been temporarily set aside.  Elbow discomfort has been an issue for Romano for all season, resulting in a pair of IL trips and a rough 6.59 ERA over 13 2/3 innings in between those absences.  Toronto’s bullpen has struggled for much of the season, and is currently without its projected top three relievers.  Romano and Yimi Garcia are injured, and Erik Swanson is currently in Triple-A trying to get on track after posting a 9.22 ERA in his first 13 2/3 innings of 2024.
  • Season-ending injuries to John Means, Tyler Wells, and now Kyle Bradish have only underlined the Orioles’ need for starting pitching, and Baltimore is widely expected to pursue rotation help at the deadline.  However, sources tell The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo, and Ken Rosenthal that GM Mike Elias hasn’t felt the need to become any more aggressive in the wake of Bradish’s Tommy John surgery, and that the O’s might still wait until closer to the actual deadline to make any pitching moves.  The Orioles’ 49-26 record gives them plenty of breathing room to evaluate their needs, though Baltimore is also in a tight race with the Yankees for the AL East crown.
  • Ending the notes post with another Red Sox item, Boston reinstated Wilyer Abreu from the 10-day injured list today, and optioned Bobby Dalbec to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Abreu has missed just shy of three weeks with a sprained ankle, interrupting the outfielder’s quietly outstanding play since making his MLB debut last season.  Abreu had a .862 OPS over 85 PA in 2023, and with his rookie status still intact, has now gained some Rookie of the Year buzz with his .272/.344/.485 slash line over 189 PA this season.

Red Sox Place Wilyer Abreu, Chris Martin On Injured List

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June 5: The Red Sox announced this morning that Martin has now been placed on the 15-day IL due to anxiety. Kelly has indeed been recalled from Triple-A Worcester.

Martin, 38, has pitched 21 1/3 innings for Boston this season and logged a 4.22 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate against an exceptional 2.4% walk rate. He allowed three runs and two of the four homers he’s surrendered all season during his last appearance on May 30. His IL placement is retroactive to June 2, although given the nature of his absence, there’s no way of telling how long he might be away from the team. For now, Martin will understandably take some time to focus on his mental health.

Kelly, 29, will rejoin the Sox after previously posting a 2.16 ERA over 11 appearances (16 2/3 innings) earlier in the season. He’s also fired 10 2/3 scoreless innings in Worcester. Despite those pristine earned run averages, Kelly has battled significant command troubles. He’s walked 20% of his Triple-A opponents this season and 13.9% of his big league opponents. He’ll need to cut down on the free passes if he’s to continue finding this level of success.

June 4, 6:05pm: Per Ian Browne of MLB.com on X, the Sox didn’t make a roster move with the pitchers prior to the game, so Martin is still on the roster while Kelly is not.

3:10pm: The Red Sox announced that they have placed outfielder Wilyer Abreu on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 3, due to a right ankle sprain. Catcher Tyler Heineman has been recalled in a corresponding move. Manager Álex Cora announced the Abreu news prior to the official announcement on WEEI’s Jones and Mego, with Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic among those to relay the news on X. Chris Cotillo of MassLive previously reported the Heineman recall on X.

Cora also said, per McCaffrey on X, that outfielder Tyler O’Neill is going to start a rehab assignment with Worcester tonight. The plan is for him to play just one rehab game and then be reinstated tomorrow, though there’s a possibility he stays with Worcester for a second contest. That makes it possible that Heineman’s stay on the active roster will be brief.

Right-hander Zack Kelly is also coming up, per tweets from Cotillo as well as Tommy Cassell of Worcester T&G Sports, though that has not been announced by the club. Right-hander Chris Martin will be placed on the 15-day IL in a corresponding move, per Cotillo on X. The club hasn’t announced a reason for Martin’s IL stint but he has been battling soreness in his non-throwing shoulder this year.

Abreu’s injury is unfortunate for the Sox in many ways, one of which is how his injury came about. The outfielder appeared to hurt himself via a misstep walking down the dugout steps, with video relayed on X by Tyler Milliken, associate producer of Zolak & Bertrand on 98.5 The Sports Hub.

That frustrating injury will rob the Sox of a player who has emerged as a key piece of the club. Since his debut last year, he has taken 274 plate appearances for the Sox. His 26.3% strikeout rate in that time is a bit on the high side but he’s also walked at a 10.2% rate and hit eight home runs. His .286/.358/.482 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 131. He’s also stolen 10 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense.

He is hoping for a short stint on the IL, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe on X, saying that an MRI revealed nothing but a lot of inflammation and swelling. But it will nonetheless compound an injury problem that has beset the Boston position player group. Abreu joins O’Neill, Trevor Story, Triston Casas, Vaughn Grissom, Romy González and Masataka Yoshida on the IL. With all of those injuries, Heineman was the only healthy position player not already on the roster.

For today, Jarren Duran, Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec are in the starting outfield while Ceddanne Rafaela has moved to shortstop. O’Neill will rejoin the outfield rotation in the coming days, as mentioned.

Red Sox Exploring Trades Involving Outfielders

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The Red Sox are exploring trades involving their young outfielders, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While Speier doesn’t identify anyone who is specifically part of talks, the Sox have a few intriguing possibilities.

Of the six primary outfielders on the 40-man roster, three have yet to qualify for arbitration: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela. Duran has a little under two years of MLB service, while Abreu and Rafaela made their MLB debuts late in the 2023 campaign.

Other clubs will likely value that trio in different orders. They’ve each shown promise, but none is a finished product. Duran, who turned 27 in September and has appeared in parts of three big league campaigns, might offer the most certainty. He’s nevertheless a potentially divisive evaluation, as he took a step forward in 2023 after significant struggles in his first two MLB looks.

The left-handed hitter is coming off an impressive .295/.346/.482 line with eight home runs over 362 plate appearances. That’s far better than the .219/.269/.354 career mark he brought into the year. Last season’s production was partially inflated by a .381 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to maintain. If he’s going to hit near .300 again, he’ll likely need to trim a 24.9% strikeout rate that’s a few percentage points higher than the league average. Duran has cut his whiffs with each progressive season, so it’s certainly not out of the question he continues to develop offensively, but some clubs could have reservations about an aggressive approach.

It’s a similar story defensively. Duran is an elite athlete and runner. That has shown up on the bases, where he went 24-26 in stolen base attempts, but hasn’t translated into strong defensive reviews. Public metrics have graded him as a middling center fielder, albeit to varying degrees. Statcast has pegged Duran two runs below par in nearly 1200 career innings. Defensive Runs Saved has been harsher, estimating him 19 runs below average. A team that feels he is a capable or better defender in center would be much more bullish than one that projects him as a left fielder — where he doesn’t have prototypical corner outfield power.

Abreu faces similar questions about his ideal defensive spot. He has played all three positions in the minors. During his MLB debut, he started eight games in left and 12 in center. Baseball America, which recently slotted him as the #6 prospect in the Sox’s farm system, suggests he’s best in right. Abreu has elite arm strength but below-average speed, which makes him a tough fit in center.

The 24-year-old has posted excellent numbers throughout his minor league career. That includes a .274/.391/.539 showing through 363 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester this year. Abreu started his big league career strong, hitting .316/.388/.474 over his first 28 contests. The Sox shielded the lefty hitter from same-handed pitchers in that look, but he flashed the strong strike zone awareness which he has shown in the minors.

Rafaela, 23, brings a polar opposite approach. He’s an extremely aggressive hitter, which MLB pitchers exploited during a 28-game debut. The Curacao native torched Triple-A pitching, running a .312/.370/.618 slash with 14 homers over 219 plate appearances.

That’s strong production for any player. It’s especially impressive for an outfielder whom most prospect evaluators forecast as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder. Rafaela can also play the middle infield, although he’s regarded as a superior defender on the grass. Baseball America recently named him the Sox’s #4 prospect.

Barring trade, Duran is a lock for an Opening Day roster spot. Abreu or Rafaela could start next season in Triple-A. It’s unlikely there’s room for all three players to open the year unless there’s an injury in Spring Training. The Sox sent a pair of minor league right-handers to St. Louis for Tyler O’Neill. He’s primarily a left fielder but capable of covering all three spots. Left fielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida is headed into the second season of a five-year deal. He’ll make $18MM annually for the next four seasons. Yoshida paired solid but unexceptional offensive production (.289/.338/.445) with subpar defense in his first MLB campaign.

Between the recent acquisition of O’Neill and Yoshida’s contract, it’s unlikely either player is traded. Rob Refsnyder rounds out the group as a righty platoon bat. He’s signed to a $1.85MM deal for next season and wouldn’t bring back a noteworthy trade return.

Speier suggests an outfielder trade could allow Boston to add pitching. Even after tonight’s agreement with Lucas Giolito, the Sox have a high-variance staff. There’s plenty of upside in a rotation that could include some combination of Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Giolito, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock, yet it’s a group that also has plenty of risk.

If Boston were to trade an outfielder for pitching, they could look to free agency to replace the lost offense. Multiple reports have tied the Sox to Teoscar Hernández in recent days. Speier confirms Boston remains interested in Hernández after adding Giolito, indicating they have the financial breathing room to go back to the open market.

Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

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3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Promote Wilyer Abreu, Place Jarren Duran On Injured List

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3:35pm: The Red Sox have now made these moves official, recalling Abreu and placing Duran on the injured list. They also reinstated right-hander Tanner Houck from the IL and optioned lefty Chris Murphy.

10:37am: The Red Sox are planning to promote outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu for his Major League debut, as first reported by Augusto Cardenas. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe hears the same, reporting that Abreu will be called up to replace Jarren Duran, who’s headed to the injured list following this weekend’s toe injury.

Abreu, 24, was one of two prospects acquired in the trade sending catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston to Houston last summer. The Venezuelan-born outfielder has posted impressive numbers in Triple-A Worcester this season, slashing .274/.391/.539 with 22 homers, 11 doubles, a triple and eight stolen bases (in nine tries). Abreu has walked in an immense 16.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a manageable 20.1% clip.

FanGraphs and MLB.com both currently rank Abreu 17th among Boston farmhands, while Baseball America tabs him 22nd. The 2023 season has seen a pronounced step forward in terms of power production for Abreu, despite garnering only average ratings on his power in most scouting reports. He’s done that while reducing his strikeout rate by six percentage points over last year’s levels, too, which creates some optimism that he could perhaps elevate his status over the generally projected fourth outfielder.

Abreu is regarded as a disciplined hitter at the plate who can be too selective at times. He runs well enough to handle all three outfield spots but posts impressive stolen-base totals more due to his baserunning acumen than standout raw speed. Abreu has spent more time in the corners than in center this year, but he has more than 1200 career innings in center and could certainly step in at the position for Duran.

As for the 26-year-old Duran, he suffered a toe injury when scaling the wall on a Gleyber Torres home run. He was slated to undergo an MRI to evaluate the extent of the injury, and it seems there was enough concern to at least require a 10-day absence.

The injury puts a halt to a breakout season for the former top prospect. Duran has appeared in 102 games for the Sox, slashing .295/.346/.482 with eight homers, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and 24 steals (in 26 tries). He’s dropped his strikeout rate for the third straight year, now sitting at 24.9% — still higher than average but nowhere close to the alarming 30.7% clip he posted in 2021-22. In doing so, he looks to have seized a long-term spot in the Boston outfield; even with some expected regression in his .381 average on balls in play, Duran’s plus speed, average power and penchant for making hard contact should allow him to remain an above-average offensive contributor. The Sox can control him for five more years beyond the current season.

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