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Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

Quick Hits: Turner, Cardinals, Girsch, Shaw

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Trea Turner is back in the Dodgers lineup for tonight’s critical Game 4 of the NLDS, even though Turner suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger in yesterday’s game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).  Turner felt good enough in pregame warmups to play, and play in the field at shortstop, turning down Roberts’ option of only acting as the designated hitter.  X-rays were negative on Turner’s finger, and though Roberts said Turner “might take a day” with such an injury if it had happened in regular-season play, it wasn’t anything that would land a player on the injured list.

The Dodgers can hardly afford to lose such a key regular as they face elimination, down 2-1 to the Padres in the series.  Turner has also been one of Los Angeles’ hottest bats in the series, with two homers and a 1.154 OPS over his 13 plate appearances.  After singling in the eighth inning of Game 3, Turner hurt his finger while diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt.

More from around baseball…

  • General manager Michael Girsch is one of several members of the Cardinals front office whose contracts are up now that the season is over, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he is hopeful of retaining all the staffers.  Girsch is the most prominent name, working in the organization since 2006 and acting in the GM role since June 2017, when Mozeliak was also promoted from GM to the PBO position.  Girsch’s history in the organization and the Cardinals’ track record of recent success would seemingly make it likely that he remains on a new contract, though that same organizational success could also naturally make Girsch or other front office members attractive to other clubs looking to make hires.
  • The Guardians outrighted Bryan Shaw off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he accepted the assignment rather than opt for free agency.  In somewhat unusual fashion, Shaw has also remained with the Guards throughout their postseason run, acting as taxi squad depth and continuing his season-long role as a mentor to Cleveland’s young pitchers.  “There’s no point in going home and just sitting there. I would rather stay here with these guys, root everyone on, and be here for moral support,” Shaw told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  A veteran of 12 Major League seasons, Shaw had limited success on the field this year, posting a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians’ bullpen.

Outrights: Shaw, Barnes, Ogando, Liberato

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A few players on postseason teams have cleared outright waivers after recently being designated for assignment.

  • The Guardians have outrighted reliever Bryan Shaw to Triple-A Columbus, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. While the veteran has more than enough service time to elect free agency while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary, Tom Withers of the Associated Press tweets that he’ll accept the assignment. Shaw remains in the organization and could technically factor into the playoff mix as a result, but it’s unlikely he’ll do so after Cleveland took him off the 40-man roster. Re-signed to a one-year deal over the winter, the veteran righty soaked up 58 1/3 innings across 60 appearances. He’s long been a durable bullpen workhorse, but his 2022 results were disappointing. Shaw posted a 5.40 ERA with a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate against an elevated 10% walk percentage. Cleveland will owe the 34-year-old a $500K buyout on a 2023 club option, and he’ll head to free agency at the start of the offseason.
  • Yankees reliever Jacob Barnes has gone unclaimed and been outrighted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the team announced. It was a quick turnaround for the righty, who was promoted for his team debut on Saturday. He threw 1 2/3 scoreless innings but was immediately DFA as the club cycled through fresh arms at the back of the bullpen. Barnes had a tough run earlier in the season with the Tigers, allowing a 6.10 ERA across 20 2/3 frames. He’s previously been outrighted and has more than enough service time to refuse the minor league assignment, although he could choose to follow Shaw’s path and stick in the organization as a depth option. He’ll hit free agency at the end of the year regardless if not added back to the 40-man roster.
  • Rays righty Cristofer Ogando was outrighted to Triple-A Durham over the weekend, per his MLB.com transactions log. The 28-year-old reliever has garnered a pair of brief looks with Tampa Bay, his first taste of MLB action. Ogando has made three big league appearances, working 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball. He’s spent the vast majority of the season in Durham, serving as a multi-inning bullpen arm and compiling a 4.56 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk percentage over 53 1/3 frames. Tampa Bay has outrighted Ogando off its 40-man roster twice this season, giving him the right to refuse this assignment in favor of free agency.
  • Padres outfielder Luis Liberato also went unclaimed on waivers last week, according to the transactions tracker. He’s been assigned to Triple-A El Paso. Signed to a minor league deal last offseason after ten seasons in the Mariners system, the left-handed hitter spent most of his year in El Paso. He had an impressive .261/.354/.541 showing over 99 games there, briefly earning his first major league call last month. Liberato only tallied five hitless at-bats with the Friars before losing his 40-man roster spot, however. He’s never previously been outrighted and doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse the assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization for the time being. That’s largely immaterial, as he’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the end of the season unless added back to the 40-man roster in the intervening time. Liberato’s quality work with the Chihuahuas should land him a number of minor league offers this winter.

Guardians Select Bo Naylor, Activate Zach Plesac, Designate Bryan Shaw

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The Guardians announced a quartet of roster moves, including the activation of Zach Plesac from the 15-day injured list and the selection of Bo Naylor’s contract from Triple-A.  To create roster space, infielder Tyler Freeman was optioned to Triple-A, and right-hander Bryan Shaw was designated for assignment.

This will be Naylor’s first taste of Major League action, as the 22-year-old will get a chance at making his debut in the Show before the 2022 season is over, and the unique thrill of suiting up alongside older brother Josh.  The 29th overall pick of the 2018 draft, the younger Naylor is rated as the 58th-best prospect in the sport by Baseball America, while MLB Pipeline has Naylor rated 75th.

It hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride for Naylor in the minors, as after posting respectable numbers in his first two pro seasons, he and countless other prospects had to sit out the canceled 2020 minor league season.  While Naylor still got some reps at Cleveland’s alternate training site, the lack of proper game action seemed to severely impact him in 2021, when he hit only .189/.280/.332 over 335 plate appearances for Double-A Akron.

Remaining at Double-A to begin 2022, Naylor has now regained his status as a potential catcher of the future for the Guardians.  Naylor has hit a cumulative .263/.392/.496 with 21 home runs over 510 PA this season (220 PA at Double-A, 290 at Triple-A).  As per Pipline’s scouting report, Naylor got on track “by using a much more disciplined approach and utilizing the opposite field more often,” which also bodes well for his longer-term development as a big league-caliber hitter.

Cleveland has long prioritized defense at the catcher position, and Naylor has also drawn solid reviews for his blocking and framing ability.  He could continue the Guardians’ focus on glovework while also bringing some much-needed pop behind the plate, if he delivers on his potential at the MLB level.  Naylor is also the rare catcher who has five-tool ability, as he stole 20 bases in 24 chances in the minors this season.

As much as the Guards have relied on young players to fuel their run to the AL Central crown, it probably seems likely that the team will stick with the veteran duo of Austin Hedges and Luke Maile heading into the postseason.  Naylor’s presence does at least give the Guardians another potential option to consider for the playoffs, but this late-season call-up could be more about rewarding Naylor for his big season and taking a look to the future.  Hedges is a free agent this winter, so Cleveland could potentially head into 2023 with a tandem of Naylor and Maile (who is still arbitration-eligible), though there has been speculation that the Guardians could make a bigger move at catcher, such as past trade target Sean Murphy.

Plesac will start today’s game against the Royals, as the righty returns after missing just over a month of action.  Plesac suffered a fracture in his pinkie finger in rather unusual fashion, as he punched the mound in frustration after allowing a Jake Lamb home run in his last start on August 27.

The injury continued what has been a rough season overall for Plesac, who has a respectable 4.39 ERA over 127 innings but also a slate of unimpressive Statcast numbers.  It remains to be seen whether Plesac will get any consideration for a postseason start should the Guardians advance beyond the wild card series, and in the bigger picture, there have been some whispers about whether or not Cleveland could look to trade Plesac this winter.  Though Plesac still has all three years of arbitration eligibility remaining, questions about Plesac’s maturity and focus have been asked for the last few seasons, and the Guardians could prefer to sell relatively high on Plesac as a controllable young starter.

The DFA likely brings an end to Shaw’s latest stint in Cleveland, as the veteran righty returned on a one-year, $3MM free agent deal in March.  That contract contained a $4MM team option for 2023, yet it already looked like the Guards would instead use their $500K buyout rather than exercise Shaw’s option.  The 34-year-old has eaten a lot of innings (58 1/3) out of the bullpen this year, but has a 5.40 ERA and a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate.

This isn’t the first time Shaw has run into some struggles, as his 2021 season helped right the ship after a shaky three-year stretch with the Rockies and Mariners.  Returning to Cleveland on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason, Shaw posted a 3.49 ERA over 77 1/3 innings and a league-leading 81 appearances.  However, his inability to recapture that form in 2022 now puts Shaw on the outside of the Guardians’ playoff roster plans.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Guardians Re-Sign Bryan Shaw

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March 25: The Guardians have formally announced the signing. In a corresponding roster move, right-hander Cody Morris has been placed on the 60-day injured list.

MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets that Morris recently underwent an MRI, which revealed a strained teres major muscle. He’s been shut down entirely and will be reevaluated after a period of four to six weeks without throwing. Given the length of that shutdown, Morris wasn’t likely to be ready early in the 2022 season anyhow.

March 24: It’s a one-year, $3MM deal that contains an option for the 2023 season, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

March 23: The Guardians have reached a deal to bring veteran right-hander Bryan Shaw back to Cleveland, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Shaw made a league-leading 81 appearances in 2021 for Cleveland — his second stint with the organization. Shaw is repped by CAA Baseball.

A staple in the Cleveland bullpen from 2013-17, Shaw thrice led the league in appearances during that stretch and pitched to an overall 3.11 ERA through 358 2/3 innings of relief work. He reached free agency as one of the most durable and effective names on the market in the 2017-18 offseason, but a three-year deal with the Rockies quickly went south. Shaw was clobbered for a 5.61 ERA in 126 2/3 frames with the Rox, who released him in July 2020. He latched on with the Mariners for the 2020 campaign but was rocked for a dozen runs in six frames with Seattle.

A return to Cleveland on a minor league deal this past year didn’t come with high expectations following that ugly three-year stint, but Shaw generally righted the ship. In 77 1/3 inning of bullpen work, he notched a solid 3.49 ERA, picking up 20 holds and a pair of saves along the way. Shaw’s success wasn’t without its red flags, as his 21.3% strikeout rate was down about four percentage points from its peak and his 11.4% walk rate was the highest full-season mark of his 11-year big league career. Still, Shaw limited hard contact, suppressed homers and picked up swinging strikes at his best rates since the 2017 season.

Assuming he’s on the big league roster, the 34-year-old Shaw will become the elder statesman of Guardians bullpen that is packed with power arms but light on experience. Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak and Anthony Gose can all pump 100mph fastballs with regularity, but Gose is the only member of the relief corps with even two years of MLB service time — and most of that came earlier in his career as an outfielder, before he made the switch to the mound.

Bullpen Notes: Rodriguez, Peralta, Strickland, Shaw, Marlins

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Right-hander Richard Rodriguez was one of the more prominent names cut loose before last night’s non-tender deadline, and now that the Braves have parted ways with the reliever, Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link) that the Pirates are interested in bringing Rodriguez back to the Steel City.  Rodriguez posted strong numbers throughout his three-plus seasons in the Pirates’ bullpen, which made him a hot commodity heading into the July trade deadline.  While Rodriguez’s peripherals didn’t back up his excellent on-field performance to begin this season, the Bucs were still able to move him to Atlanta for two young arms on July 30.

The righty still managed a 3.12 ERA during his 26 innings for the Braves, but Rodriguez’s home run rate skyrocketed and his strikeout rate dropped off the map to only 8.5%.  Atlanta didn’t use Rodriguez during the playoffs, and non-tendered him rather than pay a projected $3.1MM arbitration salary.  On paper, it would seem like a reunion between Rodriguez and the Pirates would work out well for both sides, as the Bucs would gain some more relief depth, and Rodriguez would try to get himself on track in a familiar environment.

More from the relief pitching market…

  • The Diamondbacks just made a splash in the relief market by signing Mark Melancon, but the club has also “at least checked on” such arms as Wily Peralta, Bryan Shaw, and Hunter Strickland, according to The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link).  All three right-handers had pretty decent bottom-line numbers in 2021, though the advanced metrics weren’t as impressed by their work.  Nonetheless, any could provide some help to an Arizona bullpen that badly struggled last season, and Peralta could factor into the rotation mix after starting 18 of his 19 games with the Tigers.  Shaw began his career with the D’Backs as a second-round pick for the team back in 2008, and he pitched his first two MLB seasons in a Diamondbacks uniform.
  • While the Marlins have been busy with some notable lineup additions, the club hasn’t yet done much to their relief corps.  GM Kim Ng told reporters (including The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish) that the bullpen market has been a bit slower in general, but now that the Marlins have finished some of the heavy lifting with their hitting upgrades, the pen will get more focus.  Miami’s pen posted some pretty solid numbers in 2021, and the front office has already made one move by acquiring right-hander Louis Head in a trade with the Rays.

Indians’ Recent Struggles Lead To Difficult Deadline Decisions

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A couple weeks ago, the Indians season seemed to hit a crossroads. The team was in a good place in the standings. As recently as June 26, Cleveland was sporting a 41-32 record, sitting only a game and a half behind the AL Central-leading White Sox. They were the only real threat to Chicago in an otherwise bad division.

The state of the roster, though, told a different story. Cleveland’s offense has underwhelmed all year, with the team’s strong run prevention keeping them in the race. The Indians were dealt a series of injuries to their top three starters — Zach Plesac, Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale — in fairly rapid succession, though. That left an unproven, inexperienced group taking the bump without the benefit of a high-powered lineup to back them up.

Not surprisingly, it’s been tough sledding for Cleveland in recent weeks. The Indians have gone just 4-10 over their last fourteen games, falling 7.5 back of the White Sox. They’re a more manageable four games back in the Wild Card race, but their skid has raised some questions about the team’s ability to stay in contention. Plesac returned from the IL this week, but the Indians are still without Bieber and Civale and continue to have questions about the lineup. FanGraphs gives the Indians just a 7.1% chance of reaching the postseason at this point, with their odds of winning the division down to 3.5%.

The front office is no doubt aware of those dwindling playoff odds. Indeed, Jon Heyman of MLB Network hears from rival executives that Cleveland has made some players on the big league roster available to other clubs in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.

It’s not clear specifically which players are on the market, but there’s no indication the Indians are planning any sort of full-on teardown. Bieber and José Ramírez would be the top two players on the trade market were they made available, but it seems highly unlikely the Indians would market those kinds of controllable stars in response to two weeks of poor play. The Cleveland front office would probably figure to listen to offers on players with less club control. There aren’t many players on the Indians roster who stand out as obvious trade chips at first glance, though.

Second baseman César Hernández looks like the team’s most plausible trade candidate. He’s hitting .226/.305/.413 and has already tied his career high in home runs (15) this season. It’s a nontraditional shape of production for Hernández, who typically hits for strong averages and reaches base at a high clip without hitting for much power. While Hernández’s profile has changed in 2021, he’s been similarly valuable as before. His 95 wRC+ this year isn’t far off his career mark (99) and is essentially unchanged from his 2019-20 production (97). Hernández is making an affordable $5MM this season and comes with a $6MM club option (no buyout) for 2022.

Cleveland would figure to welcome interest in corner outfielder Eddie Rosario. He’s making $8MM, though, and wasn’t having a particularly good year even before landing on the 10-day injured list with an abdominal strain this week. The Indians have a handful of young relievers (James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Sandlin) who would figure to draw plenty of attention, but it’s not clear the team would consider moving any of them. Veteran relievers Nick Wittgren and Bryan Shaw would probably be more attainable but wouldn’t bring back franchise-altering returns.

More broadly, the Indians are facing an interesting few months as an organization. The controllable core of Ramírez, Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Franmil Reyes looks good enough to anchor a contender. They would obviously love for Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario to produce enough to supplement that group. The farm system is regarded as one of the league’s best. It’s not inconceivable to see the Indians as a threat in the division in the coming years, even if the front office moves a couple veterans before the deadline in an acknowledgment of their increasingly slim playoff chances in 2021.

As the past few weeks have shown, though, there’s still plenty of work to be done to make the current roster a legitimate contender. The rotation is very strong at the top but the recent injury woes have exposed its lack of depth. The outfield has been a weak point for years. The catching duo of Roberto Pérez and Austin Hedges is a well-regarded defensive grouping but has offered virtually nothing at the plate, and the team’s first basemen have been the worst offensively in MLB this year. Giménez also struggled in his first crack at locking down shortstop.

There’s still a few weeks for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and the rest of the front office to settle on a pre-deadline plan. Even if they stand pat or serve as minor sellers, the upcoming offseason will be a pivotal one to determining the franchise’s long-term direction.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Pitchers

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We took a look last week at some of the minor league pacts that have paid the most dividends, focusing in on position players in both leagues. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of offense throughout baseball as a whole at the moment, there are even more success stories on the pitching side of the coin. Some of these are products of small sample size, particularly for the many relievers on the list, but at least for our initial check-in on this subject, the early returns have been strong.

  1. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: We’re nearing Memorial Day weekend, and Kennedy is tied for the American League lead in saves — just as everyone expected! The 36-year-old righty isn’t just scraping by and narrowly escaping in a bunch of three-run leads, though. He’s tallied 19 1/3 innings and allowed just four runs, all while recording a terrific 31.1 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 5.4 percent walk rate. If Texas remains near the bottom of the AL West standings, he’ll be an appealing trade target for bullpen-needy clubs.
  2. Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Mariners: A quality setup man with the 2017-18 Marlins, Steckenrider’s time in Miami was derailed by injuries — most notably a 2019 flexor strain. He looks to be back on track in his new surroundings, however, having tossed 18 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and an 11.1 percent walk rate. The walks are a bit elevated, but he’s helped to combat that with a career-best 54 percent ground-ball mark. The Mariners (or another club) could control Steckenrider through 2023 via arbitration as well, which only adds to the value.
  3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Dodgers:  The Dodgers just placed Nelson on the injured list due to a forearm issue, so there are (once again) some obvious health question marks with Nelson. There’s no ignoring how effective he’s been thus far, however. Nelson’s 39.1 percent strikeout rate is the ninth-best among all MLB relievers, and he’s paired that with a pristine 2.41 ERA. Like Shaw, he’s walked too many batters (13 percent), but the former Brewers ace has shown high-leverage, late-inning potential with L.A.
  4. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: Shaw was an iron man in the Cleveland ’pen but flopped in Colorado after signing a three-year, $27MM contract going into 2018. Back in his old stomping grounds, he’s tallied 19 innings with a pristine 1.42 ERA. The 33-year-old has issued 13 walks, so he’ll need to cut back on the free passes if he hopes to continue this success, but Shaw’s strikeout and ground-ball percentages are among the best of his career (29.3 percent, 57.5 percent, respectively).
  5. Lucas Luetge, LHP, Yankees: Luetge’s last MLB appearance prior to his Yankees debut came with the 2015 Mariners. The now-34-year-old southpaw signed minor league deals with five organizations before making it back to the show, which is remarkable in and of itself. That he’s been one of the Yankees’ best relievers, however, makes his story all the more incredible. Luetge, who entered 2021 with all of 89 MLB frames under his belt, has a 2.95 ERA and a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings for the Yankees thus far. Considering the injuries to Zack Britton and Darren O’Day, Luetge’s unexpected contributions have been a godsend. If he can keep this up, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 season.
  6. Hyeon-jong Yang, LHP, Rangers: Yang, a former KBO MVP, could’ve returned to that league on a guaranteed deal but refused to give up on his aspirations of playing in the Majors, even if it meant taking a non-guaranteed pact. He’s 21 1/3 innings into the realization of that lifelong goal, and the Rangers are no doubt pleased with their decision. Yang, 33, opened the season with the Rangers’ alternate site group but had his contract selected in late April. He now owns a 3.38 ERA, and while his pedestrian strikeout and walk rates might point to some possible regression, he’s induced plenty of weak contact (average 87.4 mph exit velocity, just a 13.1 percent line-drive rate). An 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there could be more K’s to come, as well.
  7. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies: Gonzalez’s numbers don’t stand out that much, but he’s eating innings and delivering roughly league-average run-prevention numbers when adjusting for his home park (102 ERA+, 99 ERA-). Through nine appearances, seven of them starts, Gonzalez is carrying a 4.54 ERA. He’s totaled 41 2/3 innings for a Rockies club that has gone the whole season without lefty Kyle Freeland. Gonzalez has rattled off consecutive quality starts and helped the Rox get through the first two months of the season. The secondary marks aren’t great, but average innings have value — especially in 2021 when teams are so conscientious about their pitchers’ workloads.
  8. Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Padres: Crismatt had just 8 1/3 innings of MLB experience (all with the 2020 Cardinals) when he arrived in Padres camp this spring. He’s more than doubled that total in 2021 already, pitching 17 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball with a hefty 52.2 percent grounder rate. Crismatt is an oddity in today’s game, sitting under 89 mph with a fastball that is only seldom used due to the fact that he throws his changeup at a whopping 46.5 percent clip. It’s weird, but so far — it’s worked.
  9. Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: A 26-year-old rookie who never pitched above Double-A with the Royals or Brewers before joining the Marlins on a minor league deal this winter, Bender is sitting 97.4 mph with his heater and has tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to open his career. He’s whiffed 36.7 percent of his opponents against a 3.3 percent walk rate. Small sample? Sure, but Bender also rattled off 8 1/3 shutout frames during Spring Training, too. Not bad for a guy who posted a 5.48 ERA with the independent American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen in 2020.
  10. Heath Hembree, RHP, Reds:  After a rough 2020 season, Hembree has bounced back early in 2021. His 4.15 ERA through 13 frames is nothing special, but his strikeout rate is sitting at a career-high 33.3 percent after plummeting in 2020. His 6.3 percent walk rate is a career-best, and his 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t far off from his peak years in Boston. Hembree’s velocity is also up to 95.2 mph after dipping to 93.9 mph in 2019-20. It’s early, but those are some encouraging indicators.
  11. Zack Littell, RHP, Giants: Littell hasn’t spent much time with the Giants yet, but he’s chucked 10 2/3 innings and held opponents to just one run on eight hits and three walks with nine punchouts. His 94.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-high, as is his 48.3 percent grounder rate. The former Twins righty only has a year of big league service and could be controllable for several years if he figures it out in San Francisco.
  12. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Athletics: It’s hard to believe Guerra just turned 32, given that he was one of the pieces traded from the Mets to the Twins way back in 2008’s Johan Santana trade. He’s bounced around the league in journeyman style but is enjoying a nice run with the A’s to kick off the ’21 season. In 20 2/3 frames, Guerra has a 3.92 ERA with a pedestrian K-BB% but intriguing levels of weak contact induced.
  13. JT Chargois, RHP, Mariners: Like Littell, Chargois hasn’t seen much time in the bigs yet, but he’s sporting a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings for Seattle. He’s had multiple chances with the Twins and Dodgers in recent years but never found much consistency. Chargois also mustered only a 5.81 ERA pitching for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2020. Still, it’s a nice start to his 2021 season.
  14. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Brewers: The right-hander, who’ll turn 33 this week, has hurled 17 1/3 innings so far in Milwaukee and pitched to a 4.15 ERA but with a more impressive 17-to-3 K/BB mark. As with many relievers early in a given season, the bulk of the damage against Boxberger came in one appearance (against the Cardinals). He’s been unscored upon in 16 of his 19 outings so far in 2021.
  15. Ervin Santana, RHP, Royals: The Royals love their reunions more than any team in baseball, and Santana is somewhat improbably back to “smelling baseball,” as he likes to say, for a second stint in Kansas City. He’s only allowed four runs in 15 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA), but he’s also only picked up eight strikeouts against four walks. His fastball is sitting 93 mph again after living at 89-90 in 2018-19, but the red flags are plentiful: 13.1 percent strikeout rate, 91 percent strand rate, .213 BABIP, 45 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate.
  16. Paolo Espino, RHP, Nationals: The Nats quietly re-signed the now 34-year-old Espino before the calendar even flipped to November last year. So far, it’s been a worthwhile reunion, as he’s held opponents to four runs on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 14 innings (2.57 ERA). Espino won’t keep this up if he can’t miss some more bats and/or induce far more grounders, however. He’s currently benefiting from a .175 BABIP and an 83.3 percent strand rate, while his 26.6 percent grounder rate will make it to limit home runs. Still, the Nats have 14 innings of decent results to show for the deal.

As with the position players, some of these strong starts will fade. There are a few at the back of the list that look particularly difficult to sustain, but there also look to be some genuine bargains unearthed among this group. Some will likely result in trades (Kennedy), but it’d make for a fun story to follow should any of the controllable arms (e.g. Bender, Crismatt) ultimately emerge as long-term pieces for the clubs who gave them their best career opportunities to date.

Bryan Shaw Makes Indians’ Opening Day Roster

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Right-handed reliever Bryan Shaw has made the Indians’ season-opening roster, Zack Meisel of The Athletic was among those to tweet. The team will have to add Shaw to its 40-man roster, which is full, and make a corresponding move to clear space for him.

This will be the second major league stint in Cleveland for the 33-year-old Shaw, who pitched with the club from 2013-17 and produced outstanding results. Shaw was part of two playoff teams, including an American League pennant winner in 2016, and logged a 3.11 ERA/3.54 SIERA with a 22.5 percent strikeout rate and an 8.0 percent walk rate during his first run in Cleveland. He also ate up 358 2/3 innings during that span and never finished with fewer than 64 frames in a season.

Shaw’s success with the Indians convinced the Rockies to sign him to a three-year, $27MM guarantee before 2018, but his career has fallen off a cliff since then. After Shaw put up a bloated 5.61 ERA in 126 2/3 innings from 2018-19, the Rockies cut him loose. He then caught on with the Mariners, but he allowed a whopping 12 earned runs over six frames last year. Unsurprisingly, Shaw was only able to score a minor league contract during the offseason, though he has shown encouraging signs this spring, having allowed three earned runs and totaled 13 strikeouts against five walks over 9 2/3 innings.

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