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Latest On Orioles’ Extension Candidates

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Orioles fans have been pining for long-term extensions for some of their young core, but thus far there’s been little indication that they’re pursuing such commitments. Part of that stemmed from the fact that the franchise was up for sale. We’re now more than a year into David Rubenstein’s tenure as Orioles owner, and while they’ve spent more money on the whole, it’s primarily been on one-year deals for free agents. (Tyler O’Neill’s three-year deal is a notable exception, though that contains an opt-out clause after the 2025 season and thus could end being a one-year deal as well.)

General manager Mike Elias commented on the matter yesterday, suggesting he’d be “more revelatory” on the subject of extensions than in the past, but still spoke in generalities (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).

“This is something we’re working on,” Elias said to the Orioles beat. “There’s guys on this team that we would like to have on this team longer than they’re currently slated for. It’s not a point-and-shoot thing. It’s case by case. There’s different players, different skill levels, different representatives, different philosophies around how to handle players at different age levels. … There’s only so much I can say about it other than it’s something we want to do if it makes sense, that we are working on it and if it happens, we’ll be out here talking about it.”

A large portion of the focus on potential extension candidates in Baltimore centers around young stars like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg — and understandably so. But Cedric Mullins — the Orioles’ longest-tenured player and a cornerstone throughout their rise from rebuilder to contender in the AL East — is in the final year of club control and would stand as a logical extension candidate himself, at least on paper. Agent Robin Cope tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that the team has not broached the possibility of an extension, even though Mullins himself “wishes they would.”

Mullins himself followed up on Cope’s comments. Asked today by the O’s beat about his agent’s statement (link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner), Mullins replied: “One hundred percent. Just being drafted by Baltimore and just knowing what Baltimore and the city offered me and my family over the course of my career has been nothing short of amazing. So to have those negotiations take place, it’s all in timing. But right now, focused on the day-to-day of bringing wins to the clubhouse.”

The 30-year-old Mullins has spent his entire career with the Orioles organization, dating back to his selection in the 13th round of the 2015 draft. Though he never garnered fanfare from national prospect rankings, he established himself as an All-Star caliber center fielder. Since cementing his place in the Orioles’ lineup back in 2020, Mullins is a .259/.327/.442 hitter. He peaked with a 30-30 season and .291/.360/.518 batting line in 2021, taking home a Silver Slugger Award and landing ninth in MVP voting during what’s still the lone All-Star campaign of his career.

Mullins may never get back to those heights again, but he’s doing his best to get there with a massive start to his 2025 campaign: .300/.435/.620 with four homers, three steals and nearly as many walks (10) as strikeouts (11) through his first 62 turns at the plate. That builds off a big finish to his 2024 campaign. After a brutally slow start in April and May, Mullins regained his footing and finished as one of the most productive hitters in the American League. Over his past 370 plate appearances, he’s batting .280/.371/.497 with 16 homers and 23 plate appearances.

Looking back at recent extensions using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there haven’t been too many examples of outfielders — or position players in general — signing extensions this close to free agency and at this age. Tommy Edman’s deal with the Dodgers (four years, $64.5MM in new money) stands as the most recent parallel. Stretching back a bit further, Charlie Blackmon’s first extension with the Rockies guaranteed him $94MM in new money over a five-year period.

Free agency offers a few more points of comparison, but it’s increasingly rare for center fielders to make it to market before signing an extension. Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5MM), Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80MM) and AJ Pollock (four years, $60MM) all signed for $15-16MM annual range, beginning with their age-31 seasons. Each of those contracts is more than five years old at this point, however. Starling Marte secured a weightier $19.5MM AAV on a four-year deal beginning with his age-33 season. George Springer’s six-year, $150MM contract covers his age-31 through age-36 seasons, but was a more accomplished hitter than Mullins.

Given the lack of discussions to this point, it seems likely that Mullins will reach free agency. He’d be a clear candidate for a qualifying offer and would likely reject that one-year figure in search of a multi-year deal. The O’s have Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and perhaps O’Neill all in the outfield mix beyond the current season, plus prospects Enrique Bradfield Jr., Jud Fabian and Dylan Beavers in the upper minors. That gives the team a good bit of outfield talent to build around if Mullins departs. In order to keep him, they’d surely need to spend well beyond their recent comfort levels. Baltimore hasn’t given out a contract worth more than $50MM since signing Alex Cobb back in 2018, under not only a different owner but also a different front office regime.

Rehab Assignments: Strider, Henderson, Gomber

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The Braves assigned Spencer Strider to Triple-A Gwinnett on a rehab stint this afternoon. The hard-throwing righty will pitch for the Stripers tomorrow in Charlotte. It’ll be his first regular season action at any level since he underwent an internal brace surgery to repair his UCL last April. Strider was able to make a pair of Spring Training appearances, where he combined for four innings. He struck out 10 of the 16 batters he faced.

Strider’s stuff is clearly sharp, but the Braves stuck to their plan to have him begin the season on the 15-day injured list. That’ll afford him a couple weeks to continue his build-up in the minors. Strider is first eligible to return on April 8. He’ll pitch at least twice in Gwinnett before the Braves decide whether to activate him. Grant Holmes and AJ Smith-Shawver are currently rounding out the rotation behind Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach.

A couple other notable players are out on rehab stints of their own:

  • The Orioles assigned Gunnar Henderson to Triple-A Norfolk tonight. Last year’s fourth-place MVP finisher took three at-bats and played seven innings at shortstop during his first game action in a month. Henderson suffered a right intercostal strain early in Spring Training. He didn’t appear in a game after February 27 and only made three exhibition appearances overall. That Henderson was able to play in the first game of Norfolk’s season confirms it’s likely to be a short-term absence for Baltimore’s superstar. Jorge Mateo and Ramón Urías are picking up the extra infield work alongside Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle.
  • Rockies starter Austin Gomber was shelved by shoulder soreness to begin the season. Colorado sent him to Triple-A Albuquerque to start their season opener this evening. Gomber tossed four innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts. He built up to 66 pitches. The Rox are opening with a four-man rotation because of off days built into their schedule during the first two turns. Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Germán Márquez and Ryan Feltner could take every start until the second week of April — at which point there’s a good chance Gomber will be ready to rejoin the rotation.

Gunnar Henderson To Open Season On Injured List

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Orioles GM Mike Elias made a number of announcements as the club begins to finalize its Opening Day roster plans, as relayed by multiple reporters including Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball. Most notable among those announcements is the fact that star shortstop Gunnar Henderson will open the season on the 10-day injured list. Additionally, Elias announced that southpaw Cade Povich will serve as the club’s fifth starter to open the season, with veteran journeyman Albert Suarez serving in a bullpen role.

The news regarding Henderson is a tough blow, given the star youngster is coming off an otherworldly 2024 campaign where he finished fourth in a stacked AL MVP class. A .281/.364/.529 (155 wRC+) hitter in 159 games last year, Henderson paired that excellent offense with 21 stolen bases and solid defense at shortstop en route to a 8.0 fWAR/9.1 bWAR campaign. With his 24th birthday still three months away, fans in Baltimore and around MLB have been looking forward to seeing how Henderson will build on his breakout campaign last year, though that will now be put on the backburner for at least the time being.

Fortunately, Elias indicated to reporters that the club remains hopeful that his absence, which is due to an intercostal strain that has sidelined him for much of Spring Training, should be a relatively short one. Henderson will miss at least seven days, as he’ll need to be placed on the 10-day injured list on Opening Day which can be backdated only a maximum of three days, but Elias’s comments seem to suggest that the club expects he won’t miss much more than that minimum time. For the time Henderson is out of action, the Orioles could look to Jackson Holliday at shortstop, thereby opening up second base for Ramon Urias.

Another option could be utility man Jorge Mateo, who has spent the spring recovery from elbow surgery. Orioles brass have previously cast doubt on his ability to be ready for Opening Day, but Elias noted this morning that the club is not ruling the possibility of Mateo breaking camp with the club out entirely. Mateo has experience all over the diamond but has played the overwhelming majority of his time in the majors at shortstop, which would make him a relatively seamless replacement for Henderson in the early days of the season if healthy. Of course, Mateo can’t offer anywhere near the offensive explosiveness that Henderson provides, having hit just .229/.267/.401 in 68 games last year.

Meanwhile, Elias also announced that the club’s fifth starter situation has been settled. The lefty Povich will join right-handers Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin in the rotation to begin the year, with Suarez ticketed for the long relief role he opened the 2024 campaign in before eventually being pushed into a rotation job by injuries. It’s an exciting opportunity for the soon to be 25-year-old Povich, who debuted with the Orioles last year and made 16 starts, though he struggled to a 5.20 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in 79 2/3 innings of work. He’s looked quite good in Spring Training, however, with a 3.07 ERA in four starts throughout camp, and will look to carry that momentum forward into the regular season.

Povich’s time in the rotation figures to last only as long as Grayson Rodriguez’s absence due to elbow inflammation. The 25-year-old righty appears to be making progress in his return from the issue, though Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner cautions that Rodriguez is starting “near square zero” in his buildup towards game action. That would suggest the righty will need more or less a full spring workload before he can return to the rotation even after making two starts earlier in camp, which seems likely to give Povich at least four or five turns through the rotation before Rodriguez will be nearing a return, if not longer.

Orioles Notes: Henderson, Mateo, Urias

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Orioles star Gunnar Henderson provided a positive update on the status of his intercostal strain yesterday, telling reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASN) that he’s “feeling good” as he works his way back to the field in hopes of being ready for Opening Day. Henderson first suffered the injury in late February, and after nearly three weeks of rehab the shortstop expressed some optimism about his situation.

“It’s getting there,” Henderson said, as relayed by Kubatko. “It’s a lot better than what it originally felt like.”

He went on to add that his “plan” is to be active and in the lineup for Opening Day against the Blue Jays on March 27, and hopefully get into some Spring Training games before then as well. While he wasn’t in either lineup for today’s set to split squad Grapefruit League games, Opening Day is still almost two weeks away which should offer the Orioles a bit of time to work with as they look to get Henderson up to speed in time for the start of the regular season.

Losing the shortstop for any amount of time would be devastating given that he was one of the top players in the entire sport last year. After impressing in a 32-game cup of coffee during the 2022 season, Henderson won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2023 before making his first All-Star game last year and finishing fourth in a stacked AL MVP class behind Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto. If Henderson were to miss time, the club could slide Jackson Holliday over to shortstop from second base, with a potential bench player like Livan Soto handling second or perhaps Jordan Westburg moving to the keystone to make room for Coby Mayo at the hot corner. Of course, for now the Orioles seem to be focused on preparing Henderson for the start of the season rather than potential alternatives.

While Henderson seemingly remains on track to break camp with the club, the same cannot be said for utility man Jorge Mateo. As noted by Kubatko, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters Friday that it’s “very doubtful” Mateo will be ready for Opening Day. The versatile hitter has spent the spring recovering from elbow surgery, and recently expressed optimism that he’d be able to make it back in time for Opening Day. That optimism isn’t entirely unfounded, as Mateo is making his spring debut today. With that being said, the final decision of Mateo’s readiness will come down to Hyde and GM Mike Elias, both of whom have now expressed doubt about Mateo’s odds of breaking camp with the club.

Back to more promising injury news, infielder Ramon Urias has been slowed in recent days by a sore hamstring but is not expected to miss significant time due to the issue. Kubatko writes that the 30-year-old went through a full slate of defensive work and took batting practice yesterday, while MLB.com’s Jake Rill notes that Urias told reporters this morning that his hamstring is feeling better and that there’s “no concern” about his ability to be ready for Opening Day. Urias is in neither lineup for today’s split squad games, but both he and Hyde expressed optimism that he would be back in the lineup for Baltimore in relatively short order.

Grayson Rodriguez To Start Season On IL; Andrew Kittredge To Miss Months

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TODAY: Rodriguez was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and he received a cortisone shot to deal with the issue, Hyde told reporters (including the Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka).  The plan is for Rodriguez to be shut down for 7-10 days to let the shot take effect, and the right-hander will then start a throwing program.

March 8: Kittredge underwent left knee debridement on Friday, the Orioles revealed to reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The team described the procedure as “successful.”

March 7: Orioles manager Brandon Hyde provided members of the media with updates on various injured players today. Most notably, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is going to start the season on the injured list due to some discomfort in his elbow/triceps area, though Hyde emphasized that there’s no concern about the righty’s ligament. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner was among those to relay the info. Additionally, righty Andrew Kittredge is going to have arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss multiple months, per Kostka.

Rodriguez had diminished velocity in his most recent start and later told reporters that he felt “sluggish” and “flat” during the outing. Hyde eventually revealed that Rodriguez was battling some soreness in his triceps. It seems the club is still working on firming up the diagnosis but has enough info to determine that Rodriguez won’t be ready by Opening Day. “It’s not a ligament issue, so we’re not concerned about that,” Hyde said, per Kostka. “But it’s going to result in some missed time. … Right now, we’re still getting opinions.”

Time will tell about the long-term picture, but the O’s will have to make a rotation pivot in the short term. Without Rodriguez, four rotation spots will be taken by Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer. Hyde said today that the final rotation spot will likely come down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich, per Kostka.

Suárez, 35, spent the 2019 to 2023 seasons pitching in Asia. He returned to affiliated ball with the O’s last year and had good results in a swing role. He made 24 starts and eight relief appearances, tossing 133 2/3 innings with a 3.70 earned run average. He only struck out 19.1% of batters faced but limited walks to a 7.6% clip. He projected to be in a long relief role to start the year. If he jumps into the rotation, perhaps Roansy Contreras will take over as the long man since the O’s are stretching him out.

Povich, 25 in April, was a top 100 prospect going into 2024 but didn’t excel in his first taste of the majors. He made 16 starts last year with a 5.20 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. But his minor league numbers were better, as he logged 77 2/3 Triple-A innings last year with a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He still has options and could be in the Triple-A rotation if not in the majors.

Ideally, one of those arms will cover the rotation spot for a few turns while Rodriguez gets healthy. Though if it’s eventually determined that he’s facing a longer absence, perhaps the club will look for external help. The free agent market still features Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull and others. Pitchers such as Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker are likely available on the trade block.

As for Kittredge, it’s an unfortunate blow since the O’s made a notable investment in him less than two months ago. In mid-January, Baltimore signed Kittredge to a one-year, $10MM deal, hoping to have him take up a key role in the club’s bullpen. But he recently experienced some soreness in his left knee and was sent for some testing, which revealed the need for this operation.

This isn’t the first time an injury has intervened in the righty’s career. Kittredge had a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings for the Rays in 2021 but then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his next two seasons. He stayed healthy last year after being traded to the Cardinals and tossed 70 2/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 45.2% ground ball rate. That spurred the O’s to give him an eight-figure deal but it now appears it will take several months for them to receive any kind of return on that investment.

Without Kittredge, the O’s still have many strong relief options, including Félix Bautista, Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin, Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto. If the Kittredge injury sends them looking for external options, guys like David Robertson, Phil Maton and Joe Kelly are unsigned.

As for shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who is dealing with an intercostal strain, Hyde said he is still getting treatment. Per Jake Rill of MLB.com, Hyde said Jackson Holliday will be getting some shortstop reps and possibly Jordan Westburg as well, with the O’s looking to build contingency plans for the event Henderson misses time. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball adds that Liván Soto and Luis Vázquez are also possibilities.

Both Holliday and Westburg played lots of shortstop in the minors and should be relatively fine in moving over there to cover for a bit, though they would create holes elsewhere. Holliday projects as the regular second baseman and Westburg the third baseman. Coby Mayo or Ramón Urías could perhaps cover third if Westburg is at short, though it sounds like Hyde might have a slight preference for Holliday, which would create a hole at the keystone. Urías has lots of second base experience, but roughly a quarter of the time he’s spent at third.

As for Soto and Vázquez, neither is on the 40-man roster at present. They both have plenty of minor league experience at second, third and short but they have played just 46 major league games between the two of them.

Gunnar Henderson Diagnosed With Intercostal Strain

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Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson has been diagnosed with a mild right intercostal strain. Manager Brandon Hyde relayed the information to reporters today, including Jake Rill of MLB.com. Hyde says the club is still “very, very hopeful” of Henderson being on the Opening Day roster, which is now just over three weeks away.

Henderson was removed from a Grapefruit League game against the Blue Jays last week, with the O’s announcing that he had lower right side discomfort. After that contest, Hyde downplayed the concern, framing the removal as precautionary and saying that Henderson would not even require an MRI.

A week later, it seems the issue has lingered enough that his readiness for Opening Day is a question mark. Though Hyde still thinks Henderson could be ready by the opener, he also suggests they won’t be aggressive with him just for that one game. “I’m very, very hopeful,” Hyde said today, per Rill. “But we’re going to not push a strain there, and we want to make sure that he gets it taken care of. It’s one of those sensitive areas where we don’t want anything to reoccur.”

Whether Henderson is in the lineup on Opening Day or not, it’s a situation worth monitoring, given his importance to the team. Henderson won American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 and vaulted to a new level last year. He hit 37 home runs, stole 21 bases, slashed .281/.364/.529 and got strong grades for his shortstop defense. FanGraphs credited him with 8.0 wins above replacement on the year. That would have been good enough for an MVP award in many years but Henderson finished fourth in the voting, thanks to outrageous seasons from Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto.

The O’s will likely have to consider some contingency plans, even if they ultimately expect Henderson to get healthy in the next three weeks. Jorge Mateo played a lot of shortstop before Henderson took over that spot but he’s currently recovering from elbow surgery and likely to start the season on the injured list. Jackson Holliday has shortstop experience but the club has largely moved him to second base.

Jordan Westburg has plenty of shortstop experience in the minors but just ten big league innings there. He has his own health situation since he’s been dealing with back soreness/spasms this spring. He hasn’t played in a while but Hyde said to Rill it’s possible he could play in Thursday’s game, depending on how he feels in the morning. If Westburg were to cover short, it would create a hole a third, which could be filled by Coby Mayo or Ramón Urías. The O’s also have a few infielders in camp as non-roster invitees, such as Terrin Vavra, Liván Soto, Luis Vázquez, Emmanuel Rivera and Vimael Machín.

There are many moving parts and the situation will surely change in the coming weeks before Opening Day. Ideally, Henderson will just be back in action and everything would be back in its proper place, though Baltimore fans will likely be keeping a keen eye on developments between now and then.

Elsewhere on the roster, reliever Andrew Kittredge has some left knee soreness. Hyde tells reporters, including Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner, that he’s undergone an MRI and will seek multiple opinions. The O’s signed Kittredge to a one-year, $10MM deal in January to bolster their bullpen. He posted a 2.48 earned run average over the 2021 to 2024 seasons. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the middle two seasons of that span but he tossed 70 2/3 innings last year with a 2.80 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 45.2% ground ball rate.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2024 Home Run Derby?

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The 2024 All-Star break festivities are already well underway, with the Futures Game in the books and the second of three draft days currently taking place. Tonight, the Home Run Derby will take center stage at 7pm Central time, with these participants:

The winner will get $1MM, with $500K for the runner-up and $150K for everyone else in the field. There’s also a $100K bonus for the player who hits the longest home run. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won last year but opted not to defend his title, so there will be a new champion, though Alonso has two previous titles from 2019 and 2021 and will be looking for a third.

This year’s format will be different from previous versions, with Cole Jacobson of MLB.com providing a rundown. The primary change is that there will be no head-to-head matchups in the first round, as the four players with the most home runs will advance. If two players tie, the longest home run will be a tiebreaker. Previously, the knockout-style bracket system started right away but this year’s version won’t see that until the field has been narrowed to four. Once the knockout stage begins, ties will be settled by 60 seconds of extra time. If the players are still tied, they will engage in three-swing showdowns until they are no longer tied.

In the first two rounds, players with have three minutes, which drops to two minutes in the final round. The three-minute rounds will now have a 40-pitch maximum while the two-minute round will feature a 27-pitch maximum.

The bonus time is also different. Previous versions featured 30 seconds of automatic extra time, which jumped to 60 seconds if the player hit two or more home runs 440 feet or longer. This year, the bonus time will continue until a player record three “outs,” which is a swing that doesn’t result in a home run. If a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer in the bonus period, he will get a fourth out.

Of the eight players competing this year, Henderson has the most homers this year with 28. He is followed by Ozuna at 26, Ramírez at 23, Alonso and Hernández at 19, García at 17, Witt at 16 and Bohm at 11.

Who do you want to win and who do you think will win? Have you say in the polls below!

Orioles Notes: Mullins, Henderson, Bradish, Rotation

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Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins exited Monday’s Grapefruit League contest against the Twins with discomfort in his hamstring, the team announced. Mullins drew a leadoff walk and advanced to second base on a grounder. He then walked off the field under his own power two pitches into the next at-bat. Enrique Bradfield Jr. replaced him on the bases.

Fortunately for O’s fans, it seems the situation is relatively minor. Manager Brandon Hyde called Mullins’ exit “precautionary” following the game (X link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Concern is low enough that the team isn’t even planning on performing an MRI or any other imaging to determine if there’s a more serious issue at play. Mullins is considered day-to-day for now, according to Hyde.

The 29-year-old Mullins has been a steady contributor on both sides of the ball for the Orioles over the past three seasons, although the 2023 campaign was his worst and, perhaps not coincidentally, least healthy of the three. Mullins had a pair of IL stints last season due to right groin strains, finishing out the season with a .233/.305/.416 slash (99 wRC+), 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 116 games. He missed only nine total games the two seasons prior, batting a combined .274/.339/.460 with 46 big flies and 64 steals. If there’s any sort of setback, infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo and top outfield prospect Colton Cowser are on hand as options to see time in center field.

Mateo has traditionally been a shortstop, but the team has already suggested that the wealth of infield talent on the Baltimore roster will likely push Mateo into the outfield more frequently in 2024. The fleet-footed Mateo’s primary spot in recent years, shortstop, sounds as though it’ll be handled primarily by reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson in 2024. While Henderson is capable of playing both shortstop and third base at a high level, the 22-year-old said yesterday that his playing time would be “leaning more toward shortstop” (X link via the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich).

Henderson has played shortstop, third base and (much more briefly) second base so far in the big leagues. He split his time between the two left-side infield positions nearly evenly in 2023, logging 594 innings at third base and 584 at shortstop. Defensive metrics touted his glovework at both spots, but he drew stronger marks at shortstop (particularly from Defensive Runs Saved, which pegged him at +10). Third base, then, will likely be left to a combination of Jordan Westburg, Ramon Urias and prospect Coby Mayo, though Mateo could also see time there. Current No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday has been playing second base this spring, while each of Westburg and Urias can play basically anywhere in the infield. Mayo’s primary position is third base, though there’s some thought he could eventually move to first base or an outfield corner. Regardless, he’s not yet on the 40-man roster.

Of course, a substantial part of the focus in Orioles camp right now is on right-hander Kyle Bradish, who’s currently attempting a rest/rehab approach to mending a sprain in his right ulnar collateral ligament. Bradish had a platelet-rich plasma injection before the O’s even publicly announced the injury, and Weyrich writes that he’s been throwing pain-free from flat ground.

While general manager Mike Elias struck an optimistic tone, he also preached caution and declined to place a timeline on the right-hander’s potential return. Bradish himself noted that follow-up MRIs have shown “accelerated healing” of the ligament so far, Weyrich writes, though that doesn’t yet mean he’s dodged a long-term absence. Bradish has yet to throw off a mound and currently isn’t throwing at full intensity. The early results are perhaps cause for some cautious optimism, but there’s a ways to go in the process.

For the time being, it doesn’t seem as though Bradish’s injury will prompt the Orioles to make another notable acquisition. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com downplayed the possibility of the Orioles signing a big-name free agent, writing that the team appears satisfied with its depth at present. Baltimore picked up Julio Teheran on a minor league deal late last week and could give him a look early in the season, but Kubatko more specifically noted that he’d be “floored” to see the O’s pursue an opt-out-laden deal with a top free agent like Jordan Montgomery.

Kyle Bradish Diagnosed With UCL Sprain, Will Begin Season On Injured List

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Pitchers and catchers reported to camp for the Orioles today, but report date has brought unwelcome news for O’s fans. General manager Mike Elias announced to the team’s beat writers this morning that right-hander Kyle Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow (X link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). He’s already received a platelet-rich plasma injection and will begin a throwing progression tomorrow, but he’ll open the season on the injured list.

Elias also revealed that Gunnar Henderson is behind schedule due to an oblique injury that’ll still need another two to three weeks of downtime, though the team isn’t concerned that he’ll miss much, if any time. Top catching prospect Samuel Basallo, meanwhile, has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow and will be limited to DH work in camp. He could begun throwing again by late April (X link via the Banner’s Andy Kostka). In even more injury news, lefty John Means is about a month behind the rest of the O’s starters, as the team had him delay the start of his offseason program after an elbow flare-up prior to last year’s ALDS (via Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun).

The Bradish injury is a brutal blow for the defending AL East champions, who saw the right-hander emerge as their clear No. 1 starter in a breakout performance last season. The 27-year-old Bradish made 30 starts and pitched 168 2/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground-ball rate. He’d been expected to open the season as Baltimore’s No. 2 starter behind newly acquired ace Corbin Burnes, but that clearly won’t happen now.

The injury occurred when Bradish began throwing in January, Elias added (X link via Meyer). The GM struck an optimistic tone, noting that “everything is pointing in the right direction” for the talented right-hander.

Still, any UCL injury for a pitcher is going to be met with immense levels of both trepidation and caution, given the potential for Tommy John surgery. The O’s, to be clear, have made no mention that a Tommy John procedure is a consideration at the moment — but a sprain, by definition, involves some degree of tearing in the ligament. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers diagnosed with a UCL sprain avoid surgery in recent years (Aaron Nola, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani to name a few), but the majority of UCL injuries eventually result in surgery of some kind. Again, that outcome hasn’t yet been broadcast by the team, and Bradish will clearly hope to add his name to the list of pitchers who’ve managed to rest/rehab a ligament injury without going under the knife.

With Bradish and Means both likely to begin the year on the injured list, Baltimore’s rotation outlook is radically altered. Burnes is surely still penciled in to take the ball on Opening Day, and he’ll presumably be followed by righties Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. The final two spots on the staff are far less certain. Options on the 40-man roster include righties Tyler Wells and Jonathan Heasley as well as lefties Cole Irvin and Bruce Zimmermann. Wells’ success as a starter early in the ’23 season and Irvin’s track record in Oakland could give them a leg up in what will presumably be a spring competition.

That said, it was already arguable that the O’s could benefit from an aggressive push to further bolster the starting staff, and uncertainty regarding their No. 2 starter and Means, their former top starter (prior to Tommy John surgery) will only rekindle speculation. Top free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, and the free-agent market also has several solid back-of-the-rotation veterans, including Michael Lorenzen and Hyun Jin Ryu. Trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett have not changed hands this winter. If the club is more pessimistic about Bradish’s injury than has been let on thus far, there’s an uncommonly large supply of potential reinforcements to consider.

Obviously, any additions will require further spending, whether financial or in terms of prospect capital (or both). But the Orioles are generally well positioned to make some kind of addition, should they find a deal to their liking. The team’s long-term payroll outlook is pristine, with only $1MM in guarantees on the books beyond the current season. Their projected 2024 payroll (per Roster Resource) is just $96MM — nearly $70MM shy of the franchise-record mark for Opening Day payroll. And even after trading Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to acquire Burnes, the O’s are still ranked by both Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic as the game’s No. 1 farm system.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

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