Luke Voit Opts Out Of Mets Deal, Becomes Free Agent
First baseman Luke Voit, who’d been with the Mets on a minor league contract, has exercised an out clause in his deal, tweets Mike Mayer of Metsmerized. Opt-out dates in minor league deals, once triggered, typically give the team 48 hours to either select the player’s contract or release him. Mayer specifies that Voit has already been granted his release and is once again a free agent.
Voit, 32, had a dismal showing with the Brewers earlier this season, batting just .221/.284/.265 — albeit in a tiny sample of 74 trips to the plate. He’s been nothing short of outstanding with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse since signing there, slashing a hefty .264/.415/.643 (155 wRC+) with 14 home runs and a massive 18.9% walk rate in 167 plate appearances. Voit has fanned at a 26.8% clip in Syracuse, which is a clear red flag, but punchouts have always been part of the slugger’s profile, even during his peak years with the Yankees.
That peak, while brief, was excellent. From 2018-20, Voit tallied 892 plate appearances with the Yankees and batted .279/.372/.543 with 57 home runs — including an MLB-leading 22 round-trippers during the shortened 2020 season. His 2021 season was ruined by injuries. A meniscus tear in his left knee during spring training eventually required surgery. He returned in mid-May but made it just two weeks before suffering a Grade 2 oblique strain. Voit raced back from that injury in far quicker fashion than most who suffer an oblique strain of that severity, and within three weeks he was back on the shelf with inflammation in his surgically repaired knee. He returned from the IL once again but was placed back on the shelf in September — again due to knee pain.
Since the end of that outstanding 2020 season, Voit has taken 883 plate appearances — nearly identical to his tally during that three-year peak — and batted .229/.311/.399 (100 wRC+). While he was prone to strikeouts earlier in his career, his 31.7% mark from 2021-23 is considerably higher than the 26.2% clip he posted from 2017-20.
Other clubs will now have to determine whether Voit’s production in Syracuse marks a legitimate improvement in his approach and contact abilities or whether it’s merely some small-sample success against lower-caliber pitching. Someone will surely give him a look, however, even if it’s only on another minor league deal at first. With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, there are very few paths to acquiring additional talent and depth to prepare for a postseason push. Voit’s performance in Syracuse and track record of past performance will get him another opportunity.
Marlins Select Devin Smeltzer
The Marlins have selected the contract of lefty Devin Smeltzer from Triple-A Jacksonville, tweets David Wilson of the Miami Herald. Noah Berger of Fish On First had previously pointed out the Smeltzer was in the team’s clubhouse this morning. The Marlins optioned right-hander Edward Cabrera earlier this week, and he’d been slated to start one of their games in Texas this weekend, so Smeltzer could potentially step into that spot (if he’s not used in long relief prior to that point). The Marlins optioned right-hander Huascar Brazoban to open a spot for Smeltzer on the active roster. They already had a vacancy on the 40-man roster. Smeltzer’s addition brings them to capacity in that regard.
Smeltzer, 27, has had a couple of stints with Miami this season already, pitching 15 2/3 innings with a 6.89 ERA and a 10-to-4 K/BB ratio in that small sample. The southpaw spent the four prior season in Minnesota, pitching to a 3.99 ERA in 140 innings between the Twins’ rotation and bullpen, fanning a well below-average 16.6% of his opponents against a strong 6.4% walk rate.
Things haven’t gone much better for Smeltzer in Jacksonville this year. He’s pitched 65 innings for the Jumbo Shrimp but been tagged for a 5.95 ERA, thanks in no small part to an uncharacteristic 12.6% walk rate. He’s had better run-prevention numbers of late, working to a 3.58 ERA in his past six Triple-A starts, but the improvement in ERA comes despite an ugly 15.5% walk rate in that time.
It could be a short stay on the roster for Smeltzer once again. The Marlins have selected him to the big league roster twice this season but designated him for assignment twice as well. Smeltzer has accepted an outright assignment to Jacksonville on both occasions, despite the fact that he has the right to reject an assignment in favor of free agency. Smeltzer is out of minor league options, so if the Fish want to send him back down at any point, he’ll need to be designated for assignment for the third time this season alone.
How To Acquire Players After The Trade Deadline
Not long ago, every August at MLBTR kicked off by reminding longtime MLB fans (or explaining to new fans) how the dizzying rules regarding August trade waivers worked. It was a convoluted process — one that saw nearly every player in the league placed on revocable trade waivers at some point (heavy emphasis on “revocable”) — but one that front offices increasingly used as creative means to pull off significant acquisitions after the supposed “deadline.”
In reality, under the old rules, the first “trade deadline” was never the actual deadline — it just wasn’t as catchy to use the full term, “non-waiver trade deadline.” As time progressed, the month of August increasingly served as a means of swapping out higher-priced talents in waiver trades that were still quite noteworthy. If you’re seeing Justin Verlander, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and others change hands in late August, just before the deadline for postseason eligibility, then was the non-waiver deadline really a trade “deadline” at all? Not so much.
Back in 2019, Major League Baseball opted to quash the ever-growing process of August roster reconstruction. The league put an end to waiver trades that often served as a means of teams hitting the “eject” button on notable contracts and saw larger-payroll clubs take on those deals simply because they possessed the financial wherewithal to do so. MLB implemented a more concrete “true” trade deadline that prohibited players on Major League contracts — or any who had previously been on Major League contracts earlier in the season (i.e. since-outrighted players) — from being traded after the deadline.
Does that mean teams can no longer acquire new players or address injuries as they arise? No, but their avenues to do so are substantially narrower. Here’s a look at how Major League front offices can still augment their roster now that the “true” trade deadline has passed:
1. Trades!
Wait, what? I thought we just–
Yes, we did. But it turns out that the “true” trade deadline is really only the “true” trade deadline for Major League players! Fun how that works, right? In all likelihood, you’ll still see several players change hands this month, they just won’t be very exciting. But, veterans who’ve been playing the entire season on a minor league contract and haven’t at any point been added to the 40-man roster or been on the Major League injured list are still fair game to be traded.
Will you see any huge, blockbuster names flipped? Of course not — but there are still some recognizable names eligible to be traded. The Tigers have Matt Wisler (4.40 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate in 47 Triple-A innings) and Johan Camargo (.263/.346/.456) in Triple-A. Matt Adams is hitting .280/.336/.488 with 13 homers against right-handed pitching for the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate. Looking for some outfield defense and speed off the bench? Bradley Zimmer is with the Red Sox’ Triple-A club and hasn’t yet been on a 40-man roster this year. Those veterans — and many others — are eligible to be traded, so long as any player(s) going back the other way have also not been on a 40-man roster or Major League injured list. Of course, it’s common for August deals to be simple cash swaps, as well.
Last August didn’t feature much in the way of trades, though the Giants did acquire Lewis Brinson and quickly give him a big league look. The Phillies picked up right-hander Vinny Nittoli in a trade as well, and he pitched a pair of shutout innings for them in September. A year prior, the slate of trades saw a handful of recognizable names dealt: Delino DeShields (twice!), Brad Peacock, Dustin Garneau, Mallex Smith, John Axford and Andrew Vasquez were all on the move for either marginal prospects or cash.
Just to speculate a bit — and we haven’t really seen this in the past, but it’s technically possible — teams technically can engineer minor league trades, so long as the players involved have not been on the 40-man roster at any point in a given season. It’s doubtful we’ll see any top prospects change hands in this regard, but it’s not expressly forbidden, either.
And, just to rain on your parade, no — teams cannot game the system using players to be named later. The rules pertaining to the “true” trade deadline made sure to include the following language:
“The Commissioner’s Office will prohibit any transaction (or series of transactions) that, in the judgment of the Commissioner’s Office, appears (or appear) designed to circumvent the prohibitions of Rule 9(b).”
Nice try, folks, but don’t get your hopes up.
Just remember, anyone acquired after Aug. 31 isn’t postseason-eligible with his new club, so minor swaps of any relative note will likely take place before the calendar flips to September.
It won’t lead to any exciting trades, but we’ll likely still see some trades this month. You’ll just have to wait until the offseason for the chatter on Dylan Cease, Salvador Perez, Corbin Burnes and others to fire back up in earnest.
2. Outright and Release Waivers
Revocable trade waivers are no longer a thing, but regular old outright waivers and release waivers are alive and well. Any time a player is designated for assignment now, the team’s only recourse will be to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. At that point, the other 29 teams will have the opportunity to claim that player … and the entirety of his remaining contract. Of course, a team doesn’t need to announce a DFA or even announce that a player has been put on waivers. It’s fairly common for a team to just announce that a player cleared waivers and was outrighted to a minor league affiliate without ever publicly declaring a DFA.
An important reminder on waivers now that it’s the primary means of acquiring talent from another organization: waiver priority is determined based on overall record (worst record to best record) and, unlike the now-retired “revocable trade waivers,” is not league-specific. If the A’s want right-hander Joe Barlow, whom the Rangers designated for assignment upon acquiring Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton, they’ll have first dibs. The Royals would be up next, followed by the Rockies, then the White Sox, then the Nationals, Cardinals and Tigers — and so forth.
Teams who didn’t find sufficient interest in veteran players prior to the trade deadline and thus held onto them could eventually place those players on outright waivers in August, hoping another club will claim said player and simply spare the waiving team some cash. This is likelier to happen late in the month — when there’s less cash owed on those veteran contracts. For instance, in 2022, the Giants claimed Jose Quintana from the Angels and the Reds claimed Asdrubal Cabrera from the D-backs. This could also be viewed as a means of granting a veteran player on a non-contender the opportunity to join a postseason race.
As with any minor league trades, players claimed off waivers will only be postseason-eligible with their new club if claimed before 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31.
3. Sign Free Agents
Same as ever. Anyone who gets released or rejects an outright assignment in favor of free agency will be able to sign with a new team and, so long as the deal is wrapped up prior to Sept. 1, they’ll be postseason-eligible with a new team. It’s certainly feasible that a once-productive veteran enjoys a hot streak with a new club or fills a useful part-time role.
No team is going to claim the remaining money on the contracts of Trey Mancini or Kolten Wong, both of whom were designated for assignment yesterday. But once the pair clears waivers and is inevitably released, a club looking for some second base depth could roll the dice on Wong, and a team that believes it can get Mancini back to form might be willing to take a shot on his right-handed bat. It’s a similar story with catcher Manny Pina and utilityman Josh Harrison. Willie Calhoun, who elected free agency earlier today, will probably land somewhere on a minor league deal before too long.
There will also be several veterans on minor league deals who trigger opt-out clauses and reenter the market. Dallas Keuchel, who’s pitched to a 1.13 ERA with a 61% ground-ball rate in 32 Triple-A innings for the Twins, just triggered such a clause in his deal yesterday. Minnesota has 48 hours from the time he exercised that provision to add him to the big league roster, and if not, he’s a free agent. Some other veterans will likely force teams into this same decision throughout the month.
The same postseason eligibility date applies to incoming free agents as well.
4. Scour the Independent Leagues
Roll your eyes all you want, but the Atlantic League, Frontier League and American Association (among other indie circuits) are all teeming with former big leaguers. Need a speedy fourth outfielder who can provide some late-game defense and baserunning during September roster expansion? A platoon bat off the bench? An extra southpaw to stash in the bullpen? There will be experienced names to consider.
Former Guardians top prospect Bobby Bradley has 22 homers and a .923 OPS with the Atlantic League’s Charleston Dirty Birds. Jose Marmolejos and Alex Dickerson have similarly impressive numbers with the Atlantic League’s Spire City Ghost Hounds and Long Island Ducks. Mickey Jannis, who chatted with MLBTR readers earlier this year, has a 3.55 ERA and is still chucking knuckleballs for the High Point Rockers. The Red Sox signed one of his teammates, former big leaguer Kyle Barraclough, earlier this summer.
It’s unlikely anyone finds a true impact player on the indie scene, but then again, people cracked jokes when the 2015 Red Sox signed then-35-year-old Ducks lefty Rich Hill, who’s less than 24 hours removed from being traded to his 13th big league club and is gearing up for a 20th season in the Majors next year. He’s earned nearly $80MM and tossed more than 900 innings in the Majors since joining the Red Sox under similar circumstances to the ones described here.
5. Look to Foreign Leagues
We don’t often see players return from the KBO, NPB or CPBL to sign with big league clubs midseason, but there’s precedent for it happening. There are also quite a few former big leaguers playing down in the Mexican League, creating another area for front offices to scout as they mine for depth options. Interest won’t be limited solely to former big leaguers, either. Last year, the Mariners signed lefty Brennan Bernardino after a strong nine-start run in Mexico, watched him dominate through 12 2/3 innings in Triple-A Tacoma, and selected him to the Major League roster by the end of July. He made his MLB debut with Seattle last July, was claimed off waivers by he Red Sox earlier this year, and has a 2.50 ERA in 36 frames for Boston this season. You never know.
Nationals’ Matt Cronin Undergoes Back Surgery
Nationals left-hander Matt Cronin announced on Instagram that he underwent surgery this week to repair a herniated disc in his back (hat tip to Talk Nats, on Twitter). Wrote Cronin:
“For those that don’t know, I had been dealing with pain in my left shoulder/arm for the last 2 years but could never seem to find anything wrong with them. That was up until about a month ago when we decided to have my spine checked out and found a large herniated disc at my C5-C6 level.”
Cronin, 25, is on the Nationals’ 40-man roster but has not yet made his Major League debut. He’s been limited to just 14 1/3 innings this season owing to that injury, logging a 5.02 ERA at the Triple-A level in that sample. Despite the pain apparently impacting him last year, he still posted a strong 2.42 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate in 52 innings of relief between the Double-A and Triple-A levels (including 16 1/3 scoreless frames at the former of those two levels).
The Nats haven’t formally announced the surgery or a timetable for Cronin’s return, though he surely won’t be getting back on the mound in 2023. If the Nats need a spot on their 40-man roster in the near future and don’t mind starting up his service clock, Cronin could be called up to the Majors and placed directly on the 60-day injured list as a means of opening that spot. Baseball America ranked Cronin 18th among Nationals farmhands this year, touting excellent carry on the southpaw’s low-to-mid 90s fastball and the potential in his slider and changeup. MLB.com has him 22nd among Washington prospects, calling him a “high-floor bullpen arm” whose secondary offerings should allow him to be effective against righties and lefties alike.
D-backs Grant Zach McAllister His Release
The Diamondbacks granted right-hander Zach McAllister his release from their Triple-A affiliate in Reno, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports. He’d been with the Aces all season and is now a free agent.
McAllister, 35, hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2018. He spent six years as a steady back-of-the-rotation starter and then middle reliever in Cleveland, pitching to a combined 3.84 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 529 innings of work. McAllister fell off quickly, however; he was rocked for a 6.20 ERA in 45 frames during the 2018 season and hasn’t pitched at the MLB level since.
McAllister had brief stints with the Triple-A affiliates for the Dodgers (2019) and Phillies (2021) but didn’t reach 15 innings in either of those seasons. He tossed 67 2/3 frames of 3.99 ERA ball with the Cardinals’ top minor league club last year, striking out 30% of his opponents along the way, and has a 4.93 ERA in 38 1/3 Triple-A innings with Reno this season. It’s an ugly number on the surface, though it’s worth pointing out just how hitter-friendly the Pacific Coast League is; nearly two-thirds of PCL pitchers with 30 or more innings this year have an ERA north of 5.00. McAllister has again fanned 30% of his opponents in 2023, although his 11.2% walk rate leaves plenty to be desired.
With the D-backs not giving him a look before today’s out date, the veteran righty will head back to the market in search of a new opportunity with a club in clearer need of bullpen depth.
Padres Designate Brent Honeywell For Assignment
The Padres announced Wednesday that they’ve designated righty Brent Honeywell Jr. for assignment, optioned catcher Brett Sullivan to Triple-A El Paso and placed lefty Tim Hill on the 15-day injured list with a sprained finger on his pitching hand. That sequence of moves will create the necessary roster space to add trade acquisitions Garrett Cooper, Scott Barlow and Ji Man Choi to the roster.
Honeywell, 28, spent five years ranked among baseball’s top 100 prospects at Baseball America but was repeatedly set back by injuries. He’s had a stunning four elbow surgeries dating back to 2018, completely derailing what looked to be a potential fast-track to MLB stardom. The 2014 second-rounder was in the upper minors by 22 years of age, tossing 136 2/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball with a 30.3% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate between Double-A and Triple-A in 2017. He didn’t throw another pitch in an official game until the 2021 season in Triple-A.
Eventually traded to the A’s and outrighted off the 40-man roster, Honeywell became a free agent last offseason and signed a big league deal with the Padres. He’s pitched in 36 games out of the bullpen for San Diego this year, working to a 4.05 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 48.9% ground-ball rate and 1.54 HR/9. The 46 2/3 innings he’s pitched this year are more than he threw in 2021-22 combined.
Honeywell is averaging 95 mph on his heater but also has a below-average 10% swinging-strike rate and 28% opponents’ chase rate. He’s out of minor league options, so the Padres weren’t able to simply send him to the minors.
Now that the trade deadline has passed, Honeywell’s fate is rather straightforward. He’ll head for outright waivers, where all 29 other clubs will have the opportunity to place a claim. Waiver priority is based on a simple reverse standings — worst record to best — and contrary to common belief is not league-specific. If he’s placed directly onto waivers today, the A’s would have the first chance to claim him, followed by the Royals. He can be controlled via arbitration for another five seasons.
Rich Hill Plans To Pitch In 2024
Rich Hill, traded to his 13th team yesterday at 43 years young, has no intention of making the Padres the final stop in his baseball career. The left-hander tells MLB.com’s Justice de los Santos that he has “all intentions of playing” in what would be his 20th Major League season in 2024 (Twitter link).
Hill’s age-35 comeback season with the Red Sox was remarkable on its own — way back in 2015. At that point, the suggestion that Hill would still be pitching in 2023 with his sights set on continuing into 2024 would’ve sounded like utter lunacy. He’d pitched in just 153 innings in the seven seasons from 2008-14, compiling a 5.41 ERA and regularly being bounced off rosters and passed through waivers. His 1.55 ERA in four late-season starts with Boston in 2015 was a fun story, but the manner in which the next decade unfolded has been completely unforeseeable.
That 29-inning sample with the Red Sox prompted the A’s to sign Hill for a year and $6MM, and he went on to dominate with Oakland to the point that the Dodgers pounced to acquire him and Josh Reddick for a trio of then-prospects: Frankie Montas, Jharel Cotton and Grant Holmes. Hill re-signed in Los Angeles on three-year, $48MM deal that seemed surreal at the time, given where he’d been just a couple years prior.
He’s steadily slowed from an upper-tier starting pitcher to a cagey innings eater in the years since, pitching to a 3.00 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate from 2016-19 but a 4.15 ERA and 21% strikeout rate in 440 2/3 innings dating back to 2020. That includes a 4.76 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 119 frames with the Pirates this year.
Hill will step into the back of the Padres’ rotation and help provide stable innings behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Righty Seth Lugo is quickly approaching his career-high innings count after moving from a relief role to a starting role this year, and while he’s pitched quite well to date, it’s unclear how he’ll fare as his workload moves into uncharted territory. Hill’s steady, if unspectacular innings, could prove important as the Padres hope for a second-half surge that’ll push them back into the playoff picture.
How Hill fares in the season’s final two months will impact his earning power in free agency. It’s hard to imagine anyone inking him to a multi-year deal regardless, given his age, but his performance in San Diego will play a large role in dictating the type of guarantee he can command on another one-year pact.
Yesterday’s trade to the Padres was notable in that they’ll be Hill’s 13th Major League team — tying him for the second-most franchises appeared for by any player. Edwin Jackson holds that oddball record at 14. Hill will have a chance to tie him this offseason and perhaps even surpass him next year, if he’s traded during the 2024 campaign.
Willie Calhoun Elects Free Agency
The Yankees announced this morning that outfielder Willie Calhoun, whom they designated for assignment on Friday, rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
The 28-year-old Calhoun signed a minor league deal with the Yankees over the winter, was added to the big league roster in early April, and wound up hitting .239/.309/.403 (96 wRC+) in 149 plate appearances before landing on the injured list with a quad strain in late June. He missed more than a month of action, and when his rehab assignment was up, the Yankees opted to keep Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney and Greg Allen over Calhoun. All four were out of minor league options, meaning the odd man out ultimately had to be designated for assignment.
Calhoun once ranked as one of baseball’s top prospects but has never developed the type of offense that was projected of him during his minor league days with the Dodgers and the Rangers (who acquired him as the headline prospect in the deadline trade sending Yu Darvish to Los Angeles). He’s a career .240/.300/.404 hitter in 1085 big league plate appearances. Calhoun doesn’t walk much (career 7.4%) but also has above-average bat-to-ball skills (15% strikeout rate). He typically makes hard contact at decent levels and was well above-average during this year’s stint with the Yankees, generating an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph and hitting 42.6% of his batted balls at 95 mph or more.
Calhoun has played left field almost exclusively in his career but carries dismal grades for his glovework from Defensive Runs Saved (-15), Ultimate Zone Rating (-13) and Outs Above Average (-14) in 1304 career innings at the position. Still, teams in need of a some outfield depth and, particularly, a left-handed bat could give him a look now that he’s back on the market.
Astros Acquire Justin Verlander From Mets
Justin Verlander is back in Houston. The Astros re-acquired the defending Cy Young winner and cash for outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Houston designated infielder Joe Perez for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move.
The Mets are paying a combined $35MM of Verlander’s 2023-24 salary. They’d pay half of his $35MM salary in 2025 if his option vests. In all, they’re paying as much as $52.5MM of the nearly $93MM that could still be paid out on his deal, pending that option.
Verlander, 40, was with the Astros from 2017-22 and departed as a free agent this offseason to sign for a record-tying annual value in Queens. His two-year, $86.666MM contract tied his former Tigers teammate Max Scherzer‘s $43.333MM AAV on a three-year deal with the Mets, but the reunion between the two future Hall of Famers will only prove to last a few months before being spun into a rivalry. The Mets shipped Scherzer to the Rangers on Saturday and will now send Verlander to Texas’ top division rival.
The 2023 season began on a sour note for Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the year after suffering a strained teres major near the end of spring training. He’s in the midst of yet another strong season, though his performance in 2023 isn’t to the same level as it was in 2022, when he stunned the baseball world by capturing his third Cy Young Award as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Verlander logged a ridiculous 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 175 innings last season. He’s pitched to a 3.15 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 96 innings this year, and seen slight steps back in his average fastball (from 95.1 mph to 94.6mph), swinging-strike rate (11.6% to 10%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.9% to 35%).
That said, even if Verlander’s overall season numbers aren’t quite as dominant as in 2022, there’s little doubt that he’s a major upgrade to an Astros staff that has lost right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the season. Righty Cristian Javier also hit a wall recently and has been struggling, and the ‘Stros lost right-hander Jose Urquidy for three months due to shoulder troubles. Verlander’s return will add one of the most talented arms of the entire generation back to the front of a staff, where he’ll join Cy Young candidate Framber Valdez, standout rookie Hunter Brown, Javier and rookie J.P. France. When Urquidy returns in the near future, it’s possible the Astros will go to a six-man rotation to help monitor the workloads of Brown and France.
For the Mets, Verlander becomes the fourth notable veteran they’ve shipped out in the past week, joining Scherzer, David Robertson and Mark Canha. The Mets have picked up a strong package of prospects in doing so but also waved a white flag on a season in which their $350MM+ payroll was expected to make them legitimate World Series contenders. They’ve also completely wiped out their rotation, which now consists of Jose Quintana (a trade candidate himself), Carlos Carrasco, Kodai Senga and David Peterson. Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi are candidates to step back into the starting staff.
The only near-term pitching prospect the Mets added in that slate of deals was righty Justin Jarvis, who came over from the Brewers and had been ranked near the back of their top 30 prospects on most publications. Given Carrasco’s status as a pending free agent and the unproven nature of Peterson, Megill and Lucchesi, they’ll head into the offseason with an enormous amount of work to do in rounding out the rotation. It’s a deep crop of free agents, headlined by names like Shohei Ohtani, Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman and NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If the Mets plan to compete in 2024 — hardly a sure thing in the wake of their deadline activity — they’ll need to aggressively pursue rotation additions via either that free-agent market or the trade market.
The acquisition of Gilbert and Clifford could both help if the Mets choose the latter. While it’s certainly possible that both newly acquired outfielders fit into the long-term puzzle, that’s no sure thing — particularly for a team so willing to splash around in free agency. Brandon Nimmo is already signed for another seven years, so there are only two real long-term vacancies in the outfield anyhow.
Gilbert, 22, is the more advanced of the two prospects and the one who’s garnered more national fanfare. The Astros’ top pick in the 2022 draft, he’s already ascended to the Double-A level in his first full season of pro ball. The University of Tennessee standout laid waste to High-A pitching early in the season, slashing .360/.421/.686 in 95 plate appearances before an aggressive promotion to Double-A. He’s been a bit below average in terms of his overall output there, batting .241/.342/.371 in 264 plate appearances. However, Gilbert has also shown an advanced approach, walking in 12.5% of his Double-A plate appearances against a lower-than-average 17.5% strikeout rate.
MLB.com ranks Gilbert as the game’s No. 68 overall prospect, and FanGraphs has him at No. 49 on their list. Both reports give Gilbert a chance to be in the big leagues by next season, touting his plus speed, plus arm, great approach at the plate and growing power. He has a chance to stick in center field, perhaps pushing Nimmo to a corner if the veteran’s defense slips as he ages into his mid-30s. If not, Gilbert projects as a plus defender in an outfield corner. Both FanGraphs and MLB.com make note of his fiery personality, which could win over hometown fans while grating on opponents.
As for Clifford, he was taken ten rounds later in the same 2022 draft not for lack of talent but for a strong commitment to Vanderbilt University. The Mets convinced him to sign rather than attend college, offering him a huge $1.25MM bonus in the 11th round after most teams had passed assuming he’d head to school.
Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets that Gilbert and Clifford would’ve been his No. 1 and No. 2 Astros prospects, respectively, on the reranking of their system he’s set to publish following the deadline. Clifford hit just .247 but posted a .426 OBP in 101 plate appearances during his pro debut last year, and his rate stats in 2023 are outstanding: .291/.399/.520 in 371 plate appearances between Class-A and High-A. He’s slugged 18 home runs and 16 doubles, walking at a hearty 12.4% clip against a 24% strikeout rate.
FanGraphs had already bumped Clifford to the Astros’ No. 2 prospect — he’s now eighth in the Mets’ system on their rankings — crediting him with the potential to grow into 70-grade raw power. He’s a corner outfielder/first baseman with below-average speed and above-average arm strength. So long as his bat and overall offensive approach continue on their current trajectories, he could be in an outfield corner with occasional first base and DH time for the Mets at some point in 2025.
The Mets have done a nice job adding to their system, acquiring at least a pair of top-100-caliber prospects (Acuna, Gilbert) and another (Clifford) who could get there before long. They’ve paid a steep price to do so, however, gutting their 2023 roster and paying down close to $71MM on the Scherzer and Verlander deals alone. They’ve also saved just over $86MM on the pair of trades, including both salary and luxury tax penalties. In the event Verlander’s option vests and he exercises it, those savings would jump to more than $119MM (while the dead money they’d paid down would rise to more than $86MM).
The Mets are so far into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization, that short of getting a team to take on the entirety of the Verlander and Scherzer contracts, there was no real way of ducking back underneath that line. The Astros, meanwhile, have received enough cash from the Mets that they’ll likely come in under the luxury line. Roster Resource had them exceeding the $233MM first-tier threshold by only a margin of $1.7MM even when assuming the full freight of Verlander’s remaining money; that clearly won’t be the case now. That would’ve been the first time Houston had crossed into luxury territory, but they’ll now have Verlander for a total of $22.777MM for the remainder of this season and next — plus an additional $17.5MM in 2025 if that option vests and he picks it up.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Astros were acquiring Verlander for two prospects. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Gilbert’s inclusion, while Nightengale was first on Clifford. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first with the specific financial breakdown.
Red Sox Acquire Luis Urías
The Red Sox announced that they have acquired infielder Luis Urías from the Brewers for minor league right-hander Bradley Blalock. Robert Murray of FanSided first had Urías going to the Red Sox while Adam McCalvy of MLB.com first reported on Blalock’s involvement.
Urías, 26, seemed to be establishing himself as a solid part of the Milwaukee roster in the previous two seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he launched 39 home runs and hit a combined .244/.340/.426 for a wRC+ of 111. This year, however, has been an entirely different story.
He was placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain after the first game of the season and wasn’t able to return until June 5. In the next three-plus weeks, he hit just .145/.299/.236 for a wRC+ of 60. A .179 batting average on balls in play wasn’t doing him any favors, but his exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate were all down a few points. That cold spell was pronounced enough for the Brewers to send him to the minors, his first time being optioned since he was a Padre back in 2019. Things haven’t gone much better in Triple-A, as he’s hitting .233/.345/.379 at that level this year for a wRC+ of 84.
Right after acquiring Urías, the Sox assigned him to Triple-A, so he’ll serve as infield depth for the time being. Infield depth has been an ongoing concern in Boston this year ever since Trevor Story required elbow surgery in the offseason. He’s still yet to make his season debut, currently out on a rehab assignment. Enrique Hernández came in from the outfield to take over shortstop but that experiment didn’t work and he’s since been traded to the Dodgers.
For now, the club has a mixture of Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Christian Arroyo and Justin Turner up the middle. Urías will join Bobby Dalbec among the depth options that are on the 40-man roster but currently stashed at Triple-A. Urías has another option year beyond this one but could wind up non-tendered as he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $4.7MM salary.
In exchange for a player that had fallen out of their plans, the Brewers will get Blalock. The 22-year-old was a 32nd-round selection of the Red Sox in 2019. He was able to get some professional experience in 2019 and 2021, with the pandemic canceling the minor leagues in 2020. Then his 2022 was wiped out by Tommy John surgery, costing him another year of development.
Here in 2023, he’s been putting himself back on the prospect map. He’s made 11 starts, split between Single-A and High-A, posting a 2.19 ERA in 53 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27.6% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate. Back in June, FanGraphs ranked him the #17 prospect in Boston’s system. They note that the Sox were set to have a difficult decision to make, as Blalock will be Rule 5 eligible this winter and could be an attractive pick, despite not yet reaching Double-A.