Franmil Reyes Elects Free Agency
The Royals announced Thursday that outfielder/designated hitter Franmil Reyes went unclaimed on outright waivers following his DFA earlier this week. He’s rejected an outright assignment from the team in favor of free agency. He can now sign with any club.
Reyes, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Royals back in February and made the team’s Opening Day roster. He slugged a pair of homers early in the season but fell into a swoon that saw him fail to reach base in 20 straight plate appearances. The Royals optioned him to Triple-A at that point, with Reyes toting an ugly .186/.231/.288 batting line and a 36.9% strikeout rate.
That marks a continuation of a downturn that began in 2022, when Reyes hit just .213/.254/.350 with a 37.1% strikeout rate in Cleveland before being placed on waivers and claimed by the Cubs. He improved slightly in Chicago, slashing .234/.301/.389, but it wasn’t enough for the Cubs to keep him the roster. He was outrighted off the 40-man, elected free agency, and eventually signed this deal with Kansas City.
Prior to that ugly 2022 campaign, the 6’5″ Reyes was a feared middle-of-the-order hitter. He’s turned in a pair of 30-homer campaigns in his career, including a career-high 37 big flies in 2019. From 2018-21, he took 1540 plate appearances and batted .260/.325/.503 with 92 home runs between San Diego and Cleveland. Strikeouts were an issue even then, as he fanned in 29.5% of his plate appearances, but he had enough power and drew enough walks (9%) that he was still a well-regarded offensive player (19% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+).
Reyes’ struggles in 2022-23 figure to make it tough for him to land a big league deal that’d place him right back on a 26-man roster, but a team searching for some right-handed power could certainly take a flier on a minor league pact and hope to get Reyes trending back toward that 2018-21 form.
Pirates, Ryan Borucki Agree To Minor League Deal
The Pirates and left-hander Ryan Borucki have agreed to a minor league deal, per the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. Borucki elected free agency earlier in the week after the Cubs passed him through waivers unclaimed.
Borucki, 29, has logged big league time in each of the past five seasons — the vast majority coming as a member of the Blue Jays. He posted a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts as a rookie back in 2018 but has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen since, due in large part to elbow surgery that wiped out most of his 2019 season. Since returning, the left-hander has posted a 4.66 ERA in 65 2/3 big league innings, fanning 22.3% of his opponents against a 12% walk rate.
Borucki opened the 2023 season with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, where he was roughed up for a dozen runs on 13 hits and six walks with 11 strikeouts in nine innings. In need of a fresh arm for the bullpen, the Cubs selected Borucki’s contract in late April, but he was designated for assignment before even getting into a game.
It’s been a tough few years for Borucki, but even when struggling to a 5.68 ERA in 25 1/3 innings between Toronto and Seattle in 2022, the southpaw averaged 95.1 mph on his sinker and posted a strong 12% swinging-strike rate. He’s moved away from his changeup and begun to rely primarily on his sinker and slider over the past two seasons, which has helped him up his ground-ball rate to a hefty 54.3% in that time.
The Bucs currently have lefty relievers Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny on the injured list. Garcia, notably, is on the 60-day and does not have a timetable for his return. Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez has been the only left-handed option in manager Derek Shelton’s bullpen for the past couple weeks. Borucki won’t immediately be added to the mix, but he gives the Pirates an experienced option to take a look at in Triple-A.
Yankees Select Ryan Weber
The Yankees announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Weber from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Fellow righty Jonathan Loaisiga was transferred from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
It’s a familiar story for Weber, who spent the 2022 season with the Yankees and was selected to the Major League roster on four different occasions. Because he’s out of minor league options, Weber was designated for assignment and passed through outright waivers each time, opting all four times to briefly elect free agency but immediately re-sign with the Yankees on a new minor league deal.
For all of last year’s trips through the DFA carousel, Weber only got into five games with the Yankees. He pitched quite well, holding opponents to one run in 10 2/3 innings of work over that quintet of appearances. He was also sharp in Triple-A, sporting a 3.86 ERA in 39 2/3 frames for the RailRiders in 2022.
The 2023 season hasn’t begun as well for Weber. He’s made seven starts and compiled 34 1/3 innings with an ugly 5.77 ERA to show for it. He’s picked up the pace over his past four turns, however, yielding 10 runs through 22 2/3 frames (3.97 ERA) with a 13-to-3 K/BB ratio. Weber has never missed many bats, but he possesses good command and regularly posts above-average ground-ball rates — which has also been the case in these season’s handful of starts with Scranton.
The Yankees don’t need a starter in the next few days, but they’ve relied heavily on their bullpen this week. Weber will give them some length in the event of another high-scoring game. Last year’s usage of Weber tells us that this could be another brief stay on the roster, but Weber and the Yankees clearly have a good working relationship, so even if he’s designated for assignment in the near future, there’s a good chance he’d just wind up back in Scranton, be it via accepting an outright assignment or electing free agency and re-upping on a new minor league pact.
Angels, Reyes Moronta Agree To Minor League Deal
The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Reyes Moronta, MLBTR has learned. The 30-year-old righty had been in spring training with the Rangers but signed with the Mexican League’s Diablos Rojos after being cut loose by Texas. He posted a 2.35 ERA with a 13-to-5 K/BB ratio in 7 2/3 innings there before being picked up by the Halos.
Moronta was a high-end setup man for the Giants from 2017-19, pitching to a combined 2.66 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a fastball that averaged 97.1 mph over the life of 128 1/3 innings. Command was an issue for the big righty, evidenced by a 13.6% walk rate in that time, but his ability to miss bats still helped him move from lower-leverage spots into a position that allowed him to pick up a save and 27 holds during that time.
Shoulder surgery ended Moronta’s 2019 season a few weeks early and wiped out nearly all of his 2020-21 seasons, however. He returned to toss four innings with the Giants in 2021, allowing just one run in that time but also sporting a fastball that clocked it at an average of 94.3 mph — a nearly three mile-per-hour drop. The Giants removed him from the 40-man roster in September, and Moronta cleared outright waivers and subsequently elected free agency at season’s end.
The Dodgers signed Moronta to a minor league deal once the 2021-22 lockout was lifted, and less than three weeks into the season he’d made it up to their big league bullpen. He spent the next couple months as an up-and-down arm in L.A. before ultimately being designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the D-backs. Overall, his 2022 campaign ended with 37 2/3 frames of 4.30 ERA ball, a 23.6% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. Moronta regained a bit of life on his heater, but last year’s 95.3 mph average was still a ways off from its peak levels.
The Angels have already lost Jose Quijada and Austin Warren to Tommy John surgery, and they’re also currently without veteran lefty Aaron Loup, who’s on the IL with a hamstring strain. They may also have to dip into their bullpen to stretch out Chase Silseth as a starter, with Jose Suarez on the shelf due to a shoulder strain.
Angels relievers still rank sixth in the Majors with a combined 3.24 ERA, but the group isn’t as deep as it was to begin the season. Adding Moronta, who has a career 3.02 ERA and 28.1% strikeout rate, to see if he can recapture some of his pre-surgery form makes for a sensible depth option.
Antonio Senzatela Leaves Start Early With Forearm Tightness
6:38pm: Senzatela told Saunders postgame that the soreness is at the bottom of his forearm near his elbow (Twitter link). The righty is headed for further evaluation tomorrow but conceded he’s concerned about the injury.
3:09pm: An already beleaguered Rockies rotation took yet another hit Wednesday, as right-hander Antonio Senzatela departed after 2 2/3 innings due to what manager Bud Black announced after the game as right forearm tightness, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Senzatela surrendered three runs prior to his departure, with his final pitch resulting in a two-run homer by Andrew McCutchen.
Senzatela only just returned from a roughly year-long absence due to a torn ACL. Wednesday’s outing was only his second of the 2023 season. In 7 2/3 innings, he’s allowed four runs on seven hits and a pair of walks with four strikeouts. Three of those seven hits have left the yard.
The Rockies are already without top starter German Marquez, whose 2023 season is over due to Tommy John surgery. They’ve also already released right-hander Jose Urena, who opened the season in the rotation after re-signing on a $3.5MM deal. Rookie right-hander Noah Davis, who’d also been auditioning for a long-term spot in the rotation, landed on the injured list in late April due to inflammation in his right elbow.
If Senzatela misses any time, the Rockies’ rotation will be down to Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner and Connor Seabold. Feltner has just 28 Major League starts under his belt and a career 5.90 ERA. Seabold has just 15 Major League games — only eight of them starts — and a 7.40 ERA through 45 innings. The Rockies are exceptionally thin on rotation options beyond that group. Right-hander Peter Lambert relieved Senzatela today and could be an option, but he pitched just 30 1/3 innings from 2020-22 combined due to injuries. His workload will surely be monitored in 2023.
Available options outside the organization are few and far between, though a handful of veteran arms were recently designated for assignment. The Rays designated Chase Anderson just today, while righties Luis Cessa and Chase De Jong were designated by the Reds and Pirates, respectively, yesterday. It’s hardly the most exciting group of arms, but each is at least stretched out to throw multiple innings. The free-agent market isn’t much better. Left-hander Madison Bumgarner was released by the D-backs earlier this season after looking lost on the mound through his first several turns. There are a handful of veterans of some note who remain unsigned from the offseason (e.g. Michael Pineda, Chris Archer, Mike Minor, Dallas Keuchel), but no one from that group would be ready to step right into a big league rotation.
Senzatela, 28, is in the second season of a five-year, $50.5MM contract extension. The Rockies are paying him $7.25MM in 2023 and will owe him $12MM per season from 2024-26 before deciding on a $14MM club option for the 2027 season. In 677 career innings entering play today, the right-hander carried a 4.85 ERA with a 15.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 50.6% ground-ball rate.
Phillies Place Jose Alvarado On Injured List
6:29pm: The MRI showed only inflammation, no structural damage, Thomson told reporters (including Gelb). He’ll be shut down from throwing for a few days but seems to have avoided a serious injury.
12:14pm: Alvarado has already undergone an MRI and is meeting with a doctor to evaluate the results, tweets Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Gelb adds that manager Rob Thomson has acknowledged that he is “a little concerned, for sure.”
11:07am: The Phillies announced Wednesday that closer Jose Alvarado has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his left elbow. His IL stint is retroactive to May 8. Right-hander Andrew Bellatti has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list in place of Alvarado.
The team hasn’t provided a timetable on the injury yet, but the loss of Alvarado even for a minimal stint is a notable blow to the roster. Alvarado, who signed a two-year extension prior to the season, has been one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball this season. He’s fired 14 1/3 innings of 1.88 ERA ball with a sensational 46.2% strikeout rate that trails only Cincinnati’s Alexis Diaz for the MLB lead. More impressive is the fact that Alvarado, whose previous command issues are well documented, has yet to issue a walk or hit a batter so far in 2023.
With Alvarado sidelined for at least the next two weeks the Phillies will likely turn to a combination of Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez and perhaps Gregory Soto to close down games. Alvarado leads the team with five saves but hasn’t been the sole closer anyhow, as Kimbrel has three saves of his own.
Kimbrel was tagged for three runs in his first appearance of the season before going on a dominant stretch of 10 appearances (10 2/3 innings, two runs, 14-to-4 K/BB ratio). He’s since slipped again, yielding a combined six runs in one inning during two appearances at Dodger Stadium earlier this month, which sent his ERA careening to its current 7.62 level. Dominguez saved nine games for the 2022 Phillies but currently has a 5.02 ERA and has seen his strikeout rate plummet from 29.5% to 20.5% in 2023. Soto notched 30 saves for the 2022 Tigers and is sporing a career-best 30.8% strikeout rate, but he’s also walked 13.8% of his opponents, which has contributed to a lackluster 4.50 ERA.
Suffice it to say, the Phillies certainly aren’t lacking in talented arms with closing experience. However, Alvarado was the only one of the bunch performing at an elite (or even above-average) level early in the 2023 season. They’ll hope for a quick turnaround with no long-term, lingering effects — due both to his general excellence and the nature of the contract he signed six weeks ago. Alvarado would’ve been a free agent following the 2023 season, but he signed a two-year, $18.55MM extension with a club option for a third year in 2026.
White Sox Designate Alex Colome For Assignment
The White Sox designated right-hander Alex Colome for assignment and selected the contract of outfielder Jake Marisnick from Triple-A Charlotte on Wednesday, per a team announcement. Marisnick will join the active roster as fellow fleet-footed, veteran outfielder Billy Hamilton heads to the 10-day injured list due to a hamstring strain. Chicago has also recalled righty Nick Padilla from Charlotte.
Colome’s reunion with the ChiSox, for whom he closed games in 2019-20, proved to be short-lived. The 34-year-old’s contract was selected earlier this month, and he’s since tossed three innings with four runs allowed (two earned) on two hits and three walks. His 93.9 mph average fastball in that time ties a career-low from the 2021 season.
While Colome notched a pristine 2.27 ERA in 83 1/3 innings during his original run with the White Sox, there were longstanding indicators that he’d be hard-pressed to sustain that success. The right-hander had sub-par strikeout and walk rates during that two-year stretch and yielded plenty of hard contact, allowing an average of 90.2 mph off the bat. The market seemingly agreed, as despite his sharp bottom-line numbers in his run-up to free agency, Colome settled for an affordable one-year deal with the Twins late in the offseason.
The results in Minnesota were pedestrian, and Colome hasn’t found much success since. Dating back to 2021, he’s sitting on a 4.85 ERA with a 17.7% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. His 55.1% ground-ball rate remains excellent, but the remainder of his profile hasn’t been encouraging. The White Sox will have a week to trade him or else pass him through outright or release waivers. Colome can reject an assignment to the minors even if he goes unclaimed.
Marisnick, 32, will bring a similar skill set to that of Hamilton to the White Sox. While he’s not quite as fast as Hamilton, he’s a premier defensive center fielder whose offensive shortcomings have largely outweighed his proficiency in the outfield and on the basepaths. He’s out to a nice .264/.407/.391 start in Charlotte so far this season, but over the past five big league seasons Marisnick is a .228/.285/.406 hitter.
Marisnick does have some power against lefties, and he also boasts career marks of 50 Defensive Runs Saved and 35 Outs Above Average in center field. His .224/.274/.366 career output against right-handed pitching leaves plenty to be desired, but he’s not a bad fourth outfielder if a team is comfortable limiting him to a rather strict platoon arrangement.
Twins Option Jose Miranda To Triple-A
9:50am: The Twins announced that Farmer has been reinstated from the injured list, with Miranda indeed being optioned to St. Paul.
9:37am: Infielder Kyle Farmer is set to return to the Twins after missing roughly a month following a fastball to the jaw that required dental surgery, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports (via Twitter) that the Twins will open a spot on the roster by optioning third baseman Jose Miranda to Triple-A St. Paul.
Miranda, 24, was regarded as one of the sport’s top infield prospects prior to making his big league debut in 2022. He struggled immensely in the early portion of last year’s debut campaign but after a brief demotion to Triple-A, returned with a stout .286/.346/.451 batting line, 14 home runs and 20 doubles over his final 413 plate appearances. That looked to cement Miranda in the Twins’ long-term lineup — so much so that the club felt comfortable trading Gio Urshela this offseason as a means of clearing regular playing time for Miranda at the hot corner.
The 2023 season, however, has been a grind for Miranda. He’s taken 142 turns at the plate and thus far produced only a .220/.275/.318 batting line. His 16.2% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate are actually improvements over last year’s respective marks of 18% and 5.8%, but Miranda’s quality of contact has taken a dive. He’s seen his exit velocity and hard-hit rate both take a step back, and his ground-ball rate has spiked from 42.1% to 48.6%, which isn’t ideal for a player with below-average speed. He’s also popping up at a slightly higher clip in 2023 and making contact on pitches within the strike zone at an 85.8% rate — down from last year’s mark of 88.2%.
Aside from the spike in ground-balls, most of the dips in Miranda’s profile at the plate are relatively minor. But, taken in totality, it appears that a large number of small steps back have combined to suppress his production at the plate in the early stages of the season. The Twins, in all likelihood, will view this as an opportunity to give Miranda a mental reset over in St. Paul, with an eye toward getting him back on the big league roster sooner rather than later.
In the meantime, Farmer seems like the most obvious candidate to take up the mantle at third base, though utilitymen Willi Castro and Donovan Solano could also mix in at the position. The 32-year-old Farmer just went 4-for-13 with a homer and two doubles in a brief rehab assignment in St. Paul and is no stranger to the left side of the infield. He was the Reds’ primary shortstop in 2022 but also spent 299 innings at third base, drawing generally positive defensive marks at both positions while batting .255/.316/.386 in 583 plate appearances.
Farmer was off to a slow start in his first season with the Twins, batting .226/.286/.355 before that ill-placed fastball interrupted his season. However, in three prior seasons with Cincinnati, he turned in a .259/.316/.395 slash in just shy of 1200 plate appearances while doing plenty of damage against left-handed pitching — a glaring weakness so far for the 2023 version of the Twins (in part due to Farmer’s absence). The Twins have posted an awful .203/.280/.369 batting line against left-handed pitching this year, so if Farmer is able to play up to his typical standard (.286/.343/.487 versus lefties), he’ll provide a notable boost in that regard.
If Miranda isn’t able to right the ship in Triple-A, the Twins should soon have options beyond Farmer. Former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis is nearing a minor league rehab assignment and, as a shortstop who’s been displaced by Carlos Correa, would make a natural option. He’s on the mend from his second right ACL tear in as many years, so even in the absence of Correa, it was up for debate whether that pair of injuries would allow him to handle shortstop at a high level moving forward.
The 23-year-old Lewis will surely need a rehab stint of some length after a year off the field, but he batted .300/.317/.550 through his first 12 big league games last year. Behind him, the Twins have 2022 first-round pick Brooks Lee rapidly climbing the big league ladder; he’s out to a .290/.350/.458 start in Double-A Wichita.
Rays To Designate Chase Anderson For Assignment
The Rays will designate right-hander Chase Anderson for assignment in order to clear a roster spot for left-hander Jake Diekman, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Tampa Bay and Diekman were finalizing a Major League contract yesterday, but the team has not yet formally announced the signing or the corresponding 40-man move.
Tampa Bay acquired the veteran Anderson from the Reds in exchange for cash earlier this month after he exercised an out clause in his minor league deal with Cincinnati. The Reds apparently weren’t keen on adding Anderson to the 40-man roster but found him another opportunity and shipped him to the Rays. Anderson tossed five scoreless frames and notched a three-inning save with the Rays, allowing two hits and a walk while punching out two batters. It was a solid showing, but as is often the case for veterans on minor league deals, it’ll be a relatively short stay on the big league roster nonetheless.
Anderson, 35, has now appeared with six big league clubs over the course of a decade-long MLB career. While he was a solid starter for the D-backs and Brewers from 2014-19 — 3.94 ERA in 857 innings — his results dropped sharply after being traded to the Blue Jays following the 2019 campaign. Anderson was torched for a 7.22 ERA in 10 appearances (seven starts) for the Jays in the shortened 2020 season, and subsequent stops in Philadelphia (6.75 ERA, 48 innings) and Cincinnati (6.38 ERA, 24 innings) over the past two seasons haven’t produced better results.
All told, Anderson has a 4.23 ERA in 967 2/3 big league innings since making his debut back in 2014. However, even including his brief scoreless run with the Rays, he’s sporting a grisly 6.51 ERA dating back to 2019. He has ample rotation experience and is stretched out to throw multiple innings already, so it’s possible another team will come calling, whether via a small trade, waiver claim or a quick signing should the Rays release him. Tampa Bay will have the next week to trade Anderson or place him outright waivers or release waivers.
The Reds Should Expand Their Youth Movement Even Further
The Reds entered the 2023 season with a trio of young starters — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft — headlining their rotation, as well as a rookie third baseman (Spencer Steer) and a closer entering just his second big league season (Alexis Diaz). None of that quintet had more than a year of Major League service time. Ashcraft and Steer both had less than one full year. The Reds might’ve spent a small amount on veteran free agents this offseason (e.g. Wil Myers, Luke Weaver, Curt Casali, Luke Maile), but one look at the roster left little doubt this was a rebuilding team.
Six weeks into the season, the youth movement has brokered mixed results. Greene and Ashcraft (Sunday’s meltdown notwithstanding) have both looked impressive in the rotation. Diaz is doing his best impression of his older brother, striking out a stunning 51.2% of his opponents through 11 innings. Steer has delivered roughly league-average offense and shown some versatility, beginning to take regular reps at first base with Myers and Joey Votto both on the injured list. Lodolo has been extraordinarily homer-prone, but his strikeout and walk rates are every bit as encouraging as they were during a strong rookie effort in 2022.
Cincinnati fans are getting a glimpse at the hopeful future core for the Reds, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that more youthful reinforcements are — or should be — on the horizon. The Reds have every reason to let Lodolo try to sort through his homer woes at the big league level, but the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation are another story entirely. Those have been occupied by veterans Weaver and the just minutes-ago-DFA’d Luis Cessa for the bulk of the season, and the results rather unsurprisingly haven’t been good.
Weaver has made just three starts to Cessa’s six, and while a 7.88 ERA doesn’t inspire any confidence, Weaver has at least posted a 26% strikeout rate against an 8.2% walk rate. They’re both better than average marks — the strikeout rate in particular. Like Lodolo (and many other Reds hurlers who have the challenge of pitching at Great American Ball Park), Weaver’s home run rate is through the roof (2.81 HR/9). The Reds spent a couple million dollars to sign him as a free agent, and Weaver’s only had three starts. Ugly as they’ve been, he’ll get another few turns, even if the leash is (or should be) short.
Cessa’s spot seemed far more vulnerable. (Hence the bulk of this piece already having been written just prior to his DFA… thanks for prompting some last-minute rewrites, Reds!) In six starts, he allowed an earned run per inning, walked more batters than he struck out, and was moved to the bullpen for his most recent appearance. He didn’t start a single game from 2019-21, making the Reds’ decision to move him into the rotation last year and then to guarantee him a 2023 rotation spot a rather peculiar one.
Cessa posted a pedestrian 4.30 ERA in ten starts last season with an even less-encouraging 5.02 FIP. That might’ve made him a fine sixth or seventh starting option, but the Reds opted to only sign Weaver this offseason and leave the rotation largely unaddressed. Veteran Chase Anderson was re-signed on a minor league deal, but he’s already been traded to the Rays after triggering an opt-out in his contract. Right-hander Ben Lively was re-signed to a minor league deal, and the Reds selected him to the roster today alongside fellow offseason journeyman pickup Kevin Herget.
It’s not clear whether the 31-year-old Lively and 32-year-old Herget are short-term stopgaps or will get an actual look on the roster in the coming weeks, but even before this afternoon’s slate of moves, the crux of this argument has been that the Reds have more interesting options than the veterans they’ve plugged into the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation thus far. The promotions of Lively and Herget don’t change that.
Lefty Brandon Williamson and right-hander Levi Stoudt both came to Cincinnati by way of trade with the Mariners, coming over in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez and Luis Castillo trades, respectively. Neither has dominated in Triple-A to begin the season, though Stoudt did make his MLB debut in a spot start last month. Williamson, currently sporting an ERA north of 7.00 in 28 1/3 Triple-A frames, has not yet pitched in the big leagues. It’s worth noting that nearly all the damage against him came in one start, where he did not escape the first inning against the Cubs’ top affiliate and was thrashed for eight runs. Stoudt needs to improve upon the poor command he’s shown in Louisville before getting a real look in the big leagues.
The Reds have one particular minor league powerhouse who looks on the cusp of MLB readiness, however: left-hander Andrew Abbott. The 2021 second-round pick has skyrocketed through the minor leagues, reaching Double-A last year as a 23-year-old in his first full professional season and then overpowering both Double-A and Triple-A opponents early in the 2023 season.
Abbott opened the current campaign with 15 2/3 innings in Double-A, allowing just two runs on six hits and three walks with an astonishing 36 strikeouts. That’s not a typo; Abbott fanned a comical 64.3% of his opponents in those three Double-A starts before the Reds rather naturally jumped him to Triple-A. He hasn’t continued on at that deity-like pace at the top minor league level … he’s “merely” posted a 3.00 ERA with a 38.7% strikeout rate in another 15 innings of work. All in all, Abbott has 30 2/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball with an eye-popping 50.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.6% walk rate, 41.5% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9 mark.
The 23-year-old Abbott’s most recent start just happened to fall on Sunday, which would line him up to be fully rested come Saturday, when the Reds’ listed starter is TBD. That had been Cessa’s spot in the rotation, but Cincinnati opted to start Ashcraft on four days’ rest instead of giving Cessa his usual turn. (Ashcraft was blasted for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings.) It’s always possible that they’ll look into alternatives for the time being, preferring to give Abbott more seasoning and hold off on adding him to the 40-man roster just yet. But each of Williamson (May 5), Stoudt (May 6) and Herget (May 4) saw their most recent starts fall on a date that would line them up to pitch between now and Saturday.
If the Reds are indeed going to tap into their farm to make a change, Abbott is not only the best option in terms of 2023 performance — he’s also the starter who’s likeliest to be on full rest and ready to make that start. Even if Cincinnati bypasses him in favor of Lively or Herget this coming weekend, he’s already made the clear case that he’s a better option for the big league rotation than either Weaver or Cessa. And assuming Williamson can continue to shake off the impact of that catastrophic outing against the Cubs’ Iowa club — he rebounded with a quality start in his next appearance — it might not be long before either he or Stoudt stakes a claim to the fifth spot.
Going with a youth-forward rotation obviously has its pitfalls, but the Reds’ lack of offseason activity on the starting pitching front — both in terms of established big league starters and even in terms of veteran depth on minor league deals — clearly set the stage for that to eventually be the case in 2023. It’s not hard to imagine the Reds rolling with five starters who have under two years of big league service by sometime next month, if not sooner. The next step in the process should come this weekend. It’s only six starts, but Abbott looks like one of the organization’s four best rotation options at this point. Today’s moves might have added some fresh arms in Lively and Herget, but plugging either into the rotation would only continue treading water as they were with Cessa.