Jose Miranda

The Twins entered the 2024 season with high hopes that prospect and Twin Cities native Louie Varland would step up and seize a spot in the rotation. The former 15th-round pick had the look of a late-round steal, having climbed to the No. 88 prospect in the game on FanGraphs’ top-100 rankings after pitching to a 3.06 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate in 126 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 and notching a 3.81 ERA through 26 frames in his MLB debut late that season. Varland posted a 3.97 ERA with similar strikeout and walk rates in 81 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2023 and then held his own with a 4.63 ERA and continued K-BB rates in his 2023 range.

The 2024 season, however, could scarcely have gone worse for Varland. He lasted four starts in the rotation before being optioned to Triple-A with a 9.18 ERA (17 runs in 16 2/3 innings). Varland had a rollercoaster season in Triple-A, resulting in a 4.75 ERA through 16 starts, though a disproportionate amount of damage came in one start that saw him tagged for a staggering 11 earned runs. (He had a combined 3.67 ERA in his other appearances.) A late look in the majors yielded poor overall results, though Varland did finish with a nice stretch of 7 2/3 innings, wherein he allowed two runs with an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that as the Twins gear up for 2025, it appears increasingly likely that Varland will be ticketed for a relief role. The St. Paul native averaged better than 95 mph on his heater last season even when working as a starter; it’s reasonable to expect that velocity to play up in a transition to a shorter role. Varland has posted at least average swinging-strike rates in the upper minors and big leagues as well, so it stands to reason that he could see an uptick in whiffs with a more powerful repertoire.

One reason it’s become easier to move a former rotation hopeful like Varland to the ’pen has been the reemergence of Simeon Woods Richardson. The former top prospect had tumbled down Minnesota’s starting pitching depth chart heading into ’24 after a dismal 2023 showing in Triple-A. But, as Woods Richardson explained in a sitdown with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, an offseason and spring training of work with the Twins’ data team and coaching staff brought about a new arm slot that produced more velocity and a new-look slider that broke out as his most effective secondary pitch.

Woods Richardson wore down a bit late in the 2024 season as he pushed to a new career-high level in terms of workload (31 starts, 147 innings), but he finished the season with a 4.17 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. His four-seamer, which averaged just 90.7 mph in his brief MLB looks in 2022-23, sat at 93.1 mph on the season despite fading over his final six starts (92.1 mph average four-seamer, 6.75 ERA). Woods Richardson, acquired alongside Austin Martin in the trade that sent the final year-plus of control over Jose Berrios to Toronto, now looks like he’ll open the 2025 season locked into the No. 4 spot in Minnesota’s rotation behind Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

Development from in-house arms of this nature will be key for the Twins in 2025, as ownership has handcuffed the baseball operations staff all offseason in terms of roster additions, as the Pohlad family explores a sale of the club. The Twins have been active in trade talks but have not yet pieced together a deal of much note. They’ve added some catching depth in small swaps for former top prospect Diego Cartaya and utilityman Mickey Gasper, but top trade candidates like Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack remain with the club. The Twins still would like to add at first base and pick up a right-handed hitting outfielder, but there’s been no trade of note and not one major league free agent signing thus far, given payroll constraints from ownership. The Twins may not need to cut payroll from its current level, but they also don’t have much (or any) room to raise it without a trade that trims some salary from the books.

With those financial limitations in mind, the front office is considering some time at first base for utilityman Willi Castro, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Twenty-six-year-old Jose Miranda, who bounced back from a 2023 season ruined by shoulder surgery to bat .284/.322/.441 last year (115 wRC+) is the top in-house option at the moment. He’s played 698 big league innings there and graded poorly from a defensive standpoint, although the former second baseman/third baseman was largely learning the position on the fly in 2022 when he tallied 595 of those innings; he’d entered that season with all of 225 career minor league innings at the position.

It seems unlikely that Castro would be a regular option at first, given the value of his versatility. He’s a viable backup at shortstop, second base, third base and anywhere in the outfield. Adding first base to that repertoire only further broadens his importance to the club. There’s been some thought that Castro and his own $6.4MM salary could be a candidate to change hands, though doing so would thin out the Twins’ depth at all those positions and remove one of the team’s best baserunners. With Minnesota at least ostensibly not required to slash payroll any further, trading Castro seems like a scenario to which the front office would be heavily opposed.