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Injury Updates On 2014 Free Agent Starters

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The list of starting pitchers eligible for free agency after this season appears unimpressive, in large part due to injuries to key players.  The latest:

  • The Cubs' Matt Garza makes his season debut tonight in Pittsburgh.  He last appeared on a Major League mound on July 21st of last year.  Previously a durable pitcher, Garza wasn't even expected to land on the DL after being forced out of that July start with triceps cramps.  The injury was later determined to be a stress reaction in his elbow.  There was talk of Garza being ready for Opening Day, but the supposedly mild lat strain suffered in February will limit him to fewer than 25 starts this year, even if he makes all of them moving forward.
  • The Blue Jays' Josh Johnson suffered a triceps injury in late April, but made a solid minor league rehab start yesterday.  For a scouting report on the outing, check out Danny Knobler's latest from CBS Sports.  Barring a setback he should be ready in early June, and he may be auditioning for a July trade if Toronto's fortunes don't turn around.  Garza and Johnson would both benefit greatly from midseason trades, as they'd become ineligible for qualifying offers after the season.
  • Rehabbing from July flexor tendon surgery, the Rangers' Colby Lewis was working at 84-86 miles per hour in a rehab start yesterday.  Lewis hopes to return before the All-Star break, but admitted yesterday's velocity "isn't going to cut it."  
  • The Giants' Ryan Vogelsong fractured two bones in his right hand after being hit by a pitch yesterday, amid what MLB.com's Chris Haft called a "redemptive pitching effort."  The Giants have a $6.5MM club option on Vogelsong after the season with a $300K buyout.
  • The Padres' Tim Stauffer was promoted Friday, fully recovered from flexor tendon surgery in August.  He'll begin in a relief role, but perhaps can be a rotation option down the line.  Stauffer made 31 starts with a 3.73 ERA in 2011.
  • The Cardinals' Chris Carpenter, working his way back from a shoulder injury, threw an extended bullpen session on Saturday.  Carpenter's teammate Jake Westbrook is on the DL for elbow inflammation and biceps tendinitis, but according to this report from MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, he's "hopeful that Saturday's start is the last one that he will have to miss."  Westbrook has a $9.5MM mutual option after the season with a $1MM buyout.
  • The Indians' Brett Myers, on the shelf since late April with an elbow injury, is set to make what is hopefully his final rehab appearance today.  The Tribe holds a club option on him after the season. 
  • After a DL stint for lower back stiffness, the Mariners' Aaron Harang will start tonight in Los Angeles.
  • The Orioles' Tsuyoshi Wada will make his second minor league rehab start tonight for the Norfolk Tides, as he tries to recover from Tommy John surgery and provide some value to the O's.
  • The Pirates' Jeff Karstens made his second minor league rehab start on Saturday, as he recovers from shoulder inflammation.
  • The Rockies' Jeff Francis was placed on the DL last Thursday with a groin strain, but may be able to return when eligible.
  • The Yankees' Andy Pettitte hit the DL last week with a strained trapezius muscle.  The 40-year-old is expected to return when eligible.
  • After the 2012 season, only four free agent starters were coming off 200-inning seasons.  Currently, 13 impending free agents seem to have a shot: Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Jon Garland, Joe Saunders, Tim Lincecum, Paul Maholm, Bartolo Colon, Jason Marquis, Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas, Hiroki Kuroda, Bronson Arroyo, and Ricky Nolasco. 

Midseason Top Prospect Trades

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How often are top prospects traded midseason?  Using trade periods of June through August, and Baseball America's preseason top 100 prospect lists, let's take a look at the last four years:

If recent history is any indication, we should expect between three and seven top 100 prospects to be traded this summer.  Out of the 22 prospects traded in the last four years, only three were top 30 guys: Smoak, Turner, and Wallace in 2010.  Wallace's 2010 trade was something of a prospect challenge trade, however, and is an exception.  It's fair to expect most traded prospects to be in the 40-100 range on the rankings.  Of those prospects on BA's 2013 list, 33 play for teams currently above .500:

Players like Teheran and Arenado seem less likely to be traded, as they're holding down full-time roles.  Also, since top 100 prospects are created prior to the season, they don't account for prospects whose stock dropped in the minor league season leading up to the trade deadline, such as Turner, Alderson or Cox, or others whose stock rose.  Vizcaino is an example of an injured prospect who was traded, but it seems unlikely in the case of the Rays' Lee, who is probably out for the season due to a knee injury.  

We also have to consider team and GM history.  Even if my brief four-year sample, the Phillies traded four of the 22 prospects in a pair of major trades, but the club may not profile as a buyer in two months.  A player like the D'Backs' Davidson seems to represent the perfect storm of a summer prospect trade: he's a bit of a forgotten prospect, he's blocked at third base, and he plays for a contender.

One other factor is the new CBA.  The inability to spend significantly over slot  in the draft may compel teams to hold onto top prospects more tightly, while the inability to recoup value on a rental in the form of draft pick compensation may limit trades of those players.

Draft Notes: Appel, Gray, Shipley, Manaea, Stanek

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The Astros, Cubs, and Rockies have the first three picks in the 2013 amateur draft, which takes place Thursday, June 6th.  Draft gurus expect college righties Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray and college third baseman Kris Bryant to go within those first three picks, though the order seems tough to pin down at this point.  The latest on the draft:

  • Conor Glassey of Baseball America takes a look at the age spectrum among this year's BA Top 250 by splitting the list into high school and college players and examining the youngest and oldest in each group.
  • Baseball America's Jim Callis asked four "top-level scouting executives" whether they preferred Appel or Gray.  Three of them chose Appel, though it was interesting to hear that two of them questioned his makeup.
  • MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo talked to Nevada righty Braden Shipley, a converted shortstop.  ESPN's Keith Law ranks Shipley the No. 6 talent in the draft, and predicted the Marlins will indeed take him in that sixth spot.  Baseball America ranks him eighth, and predicted he'd go fifth to the Indians.  Mayo went with eighth to the Royals.
  • Mayo also writes that Shipley has elevated his stock thanks to consistent performance this season, while Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea and Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek have seen their stocks fall. Manaea has been bothered by a hip issue that has led to diminished results, while Stanek has had an up-and-down season as well. A scouting director told Mayo that he thinks Stanek will be the third pitcher selected in the draft. The upcoming conference tournaments will serve as a showcase for these college arms to gain some last-minute draft helium.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Minor Moves: Paulino, Resop, Teahen

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Today's minor moves…

  • Baseball America's Matt Eddy reports that the Orioles have signed Ronny Paulino to a minor league deal. Eddy's piece contains a wealth of information, as it includes a complete rundown of minor league transactions that have taken place from May 9-16 among all 30 teams.
  • Athletics reliever Chris Resop cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  The A's had designated Resop for assignment on Friday to open a 40-man roster spot for Hideki Okajima.  Resop, 30, had a 6.00 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, and 41.9% groundball rate in 18 innings this year.  Having been outrighted once before, Resop had the ability to reject this assignment, but it made sense to accept and keep his $1.35MM salary.  That salary also may explain why he went unclaimed.  The A's acquired Resop from the Pirates in November last year for 25-year-old minor league reliever Zach Thornton.
  • Mark Teahen has asked for and been granted his release from the Diamondbacks and is a free agent, MLBTR has learned.  The versatile veteran played in the Majors from 2005-11, compiling a .264/.327/.409 line for the Royals, White Sox, and Blue Jays.  Teahen began the year with Arizona's Triple-A club before being traded to the Reds earlier this month.  The deal fell through due to the Reds' concerns about his physical, though the D'Backs and the player consider him healthy.  Teahen had been playing in extended spring training due to a lack of roster spots in Reno.
  • Five players currently reside in DFA limbo: Derek Lowe of the Rangers, Daric Barton of the A's, Jon Rauch of the Marlins, Alberto Gonzalez of the Yankees, and Scott Cousins of the Angels.  The Cubs' Michael Bowden will join that group when Matt Garza is activated.  Should he clear waivers, Rauch would reject an outright assignment, at which point he'd be released and another team could sign him at the league minimum with the Marlins paying the rest of his $1MM salary.

Central Notes: Pirates, Royals, Cubs

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With 40% of their innings coming from relievers, the Pirates' bullpen has been worked the hardest among all National League teams.  The onus is on GM Neal Huntington to add depth at the trade deadline, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, who notes that the NL Central is "tougher than many of us expected" due to the Pirates playing .591 ball so far.  Elsewhere in baseball's central divisions…

  • The Royals are the frontrunner to sign 15-year-old Italian shortstop Marten Gasparini, sources tell Ben Badler of Baseball America, with the Dodgers and Cubs also showing interest.  Gasparini, who turns 16 on Friday, is "expected to sign the biggest contract ever for a European amateur player," according to Badler.  The speedy switch-hitter may top the $800K the Twins gave to German outfielder Max Kepler in 2009.  Be sure to check out Badler's full profile of Gasparini.
  • Josh Vitters is the future at third base for the Cubs, president Theo Epstein told Ian Stewart, Stewart explained to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.  That means playing time will be hard to come by for Stewart at Triple-A Iowa, where he landed after being removed from the Cubs' 40-man roster this month.  Stewart wondered if the comment was Epstein's way of trying to get him to give up his contract, but the third baseman told Muskat, "It wouldn't really make sense for me to take a release or ask for free agency, because then I'd be giving up my contract, and that doesn't make sense for me financially or for my family."  Stewart signed a $2MM deal to remain with the Cubs after being non-tendered in December, and hoped to be with the big league club after rehabbing a February quad injury.
  • Matt Garza will make his season debut tomorrow with the Cubs in Pittsburgh, and he's eligible for free agency after the season.  Jesse Rogers and Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com discussed Garza's future, with Levine suggesting, "I believe if he stays healthy the Cubs will offer him a short-term extension that could be a plus for both sides."
  • The Twins "will get a close approximation of what it would be like to have Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in the same lineup" when top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano reach their primes, writes Jim Callis of Baseball America.  Asked to rank prospect tandems in terms of potential five years down the road, Callis ranked Buxton and Sano ahead of Oscar Taveras and Shelby Miller of the Cardinals, Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich of the Marlins, and Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado of the Orioles, among others.

Quick Hits: Gose, Dodgers, Relief Market

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The Blue Jays announced today they've recalled 22-year-old outfielder Anthony Gose, who has a .227/.343/.325 line playing center field at Triple-A.  Gose, who played in 56 games for the Jays last year, ranked #59 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list for ESPN prior to the 2012 season and 39th on Baseball America's list.  Gose was surprised by the promotion, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, while Jays manager John Gibbons said he will not be used in an everyday role at this time.  On to today's links:

  • The Dodgers have "no plans" to fire manager Don Mattingly when the team returns home Thursday or before then, a club official tells Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.  Last night, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports put forth a guess that Mattingly will be fired if things don't go better for the Dodgers in this week's three-game set in Milwaukee.
  • With a 4.61 ERA, the Dodgers' bullpen ranks 14th in the National League, and they're tied for third with eight blown saves.  After yesterday's problems with Kenley Jansen and Brandon League, Mattingly said to reporters, "We had guys get away early who seemed to fit."  Mattingly was seemingly referring to the Cubs' Kevin Gregg, who was released by the Dodgers' front office in April after they couldn't find a bullpen spot for him.
  • "Non-existent" was the word one American League executive used to describe the relief pitching market, writes WEEI's Rob Bradford.  Here in May, the market looks short on sellers with quality relief pieces.
  • Speaking of relievers, are you following @CloserNews on Twitter?  Win the saves category in your fantasy league by following our updates on all things closer-related.

Trade Market For Lefty Relievers

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Having lost veterans Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty to elbow injuries, the Braves are expected to be in the hunt for a lefty reliever, confirmed Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Rosenthal notes that Miami's Mike Dunn would be ideal; Atlanta traded him to the Marlins in the Dan Uggla deal several years ago.  Dunn, who turns 28 on Thursday, has pushed his walk rate down a bit and is getting more groundballs, which partially explains his 1.74 ERA.  He's under team control through 2016, and the Marlins should be able to command a strong return on the trade market.  Which other lefty relievers might become available this summer?

  • Darren Oliver and Brett Cecil, Blue Jays.  Oliver, 42, hasn't been effective against left-handed hitters this year, allowing 14 hits out of 36 batters faced.  Cecil has dominated same-side batters, but he is under team control through 2016 and would be much harder to acquire.
  • J.P. Howell, Dodgers.  Howell and his 87 mile-an-hour heater have been extremely effective against lefty hitters.  He has a $2.85MM base salary plus incentives.
  • Wesley Wright and Travis Blackley, Astros.  Erik Bedard is another name to watch here, though he's currently in the Astros' rotation and might be needed there.  Wright has been ineffective against lefties, while Blackley has been OK.
  • Brian Duensing, Twins.  Glen Perkins could be very popular on the trade market, but he's signed potentially through 2016 and I'm not sure the Twins would be willing to trade their closer.  Duensing has been very good against left-handed hitters and is under team control through 2015.
  • James Russell, Cubs.  Russell may be the prize among left-handed relievers.  His numbers have moved in the right direction this year.  He's dominated lefty hitters and is usable against right-handed ones.  He's under team control through 2015, so the Cubs will be in no rush to move him.
  • Tom Gorzelanny and Mike Gonzalez, Brewers.  Gorzelanny has a 2.30 ERA on the season, a deceptive number given his low strikeout rate, high walk rate, and proclivity toward the longball.  Signed through 2014, the Brewers would do well to clear his contract.  Gonzalez, also signed as a free agent during the offseason, needs to be kept far away from right-handed hitters.  His 4.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed batters is promising, but he has been hittable.
  • Charlie Furbush and Oliver Perez, Mariners.  Walks have been a problem for Furbush, who is under team control through 2017.  Perez has at least limited free passes against lefty batters, whom the impending free agent has dominated.
  • Antonio Bastardo, Phillies.  Bastardo has allowed a pair of home runs among his 25 left-handed hitters faced, which continues to be a problem for him given his inability to get groundballs.  He's under team control through 2015.
  • Scott Downs, Angels.  The L.A. teams certainly aren't ready to punt on the season, but one or both may be in two months.  Downs, 37, is earning $5MM in the last year of his contract.  He's got one of the best groundball rates you'll find, and remains tough on left-handed hitters.
  • Matt Thornton, White Sox.  Unlike most left-handed relievers, Thornton sits around 94 miles per hour with his fastball.  The 36-year-old earns $5.5MM this year and has a $6MM club option for 2014.  He battled elbow inflammation in February and strikeouts have eluded him so far, depressing his trade value.
  • Joe Thatcher, Padres.  Thatcher has been hittable against lefties, but otherwise effective.  He's under team control through 2014.
  • Marc Rzepczynski, Cardinals.  Rzepczynski had his fire questioned by GM John Mozeliak, and despite a $1.1MM salary he and his 7.88 ERA were demoted to Triple-A in late April.  Lefties have hit him well at that level too, so the Cardinals would be selling low to move him this summer.

Latest On Nationals, Mike Rizzo

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In an April 29th poll of over 28,000 MLBTR readers, 3.25% voted for the Nationals' Mike Rizzo as the best GM in baseball.  That placed Rizzo 13th overall; only Billy Beane received more than 9% of the vote.  A few days prior, the Nationals had exercised Rizzo's 2014 club option.  On the face of it, that move was seen as a show of support from ownership for the GM, as they were not obligated to make a decision until after the season.  At the time, it was reported that the two sides were working on an extension beyond 2014, and also noted that the Nats still retain a 2015 club option.

Upon deeper examination from Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, exercising Rizzo's club option may not have been a generous move by the team.  The move "may have created a potential fissure between ownership and its general manager," writes Kilgore.  Since Rizzo signed on in 2010 with no experience as a full-time GM, his contract was quite team-friendly, putting him in the bottom third in salary for his position and allowing for the pair of club options.  As we've seen with players with less than a year's service time, such as Matt Moore and Salvador Perez, the team has all the leverage at that point.

Nationals owner Mark Lerner seemed to admit Saturday that extension talks with Rizzo have not yet taken place, despite earlier statements to the contrary.  Lerner still expressed optimism for a deal, while Rizzo told Kilgore, "I’d like to be here for the long term. I hope the Lerner family feels the same way."

Which Players Will Be Traded This Summer?

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Last summer, the biggest names traded were Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Ichiro Suzuki, Wandy Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Francisco Liriano, J.A. Happ, Jeremy Guthrie, Brett Myers, Kurt Suzuki, Joe Blanton, Brandon League, Marco Scutaro, Stephen Drew, Joe Saunders, Edward Mujica, and Chris Johnson.

As always, the vast majority of trades will take place in July and August.  Perhaps we'll see a handful of All-Stars dealt, and surely a slew of solid veterans (often in contract years) and decent prospects.  With over two months remaining until the trade deadline, several of the more interesting speculative trade candidates, such as Chase Headley, David Price, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cliff Lee, appear unlikely.  Weigh in with today's poll – check all the names you expect to be traded this summer.  You can click here to view the results.

Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey , the world's leading questionnaire tool.

Tigers Looking Hard For Bullpen Help

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The Tigers are "looking hard" on the trade market for bullpen help, a source who speaks regularly with the team's management tells Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.  Closer Jose Valverde has been effective since joining the big league club on April 24th, but they remain in the hunt for help.  The Tigers' bullpen has a 3.79 ERA, ninth in the American League.  The relievers who comprise the current pen have a 2.04 ERA over the last 30 days, with everyone pitching well aside from Phil Coke.  Al Alburquerque had been struggling as well; he was sent down today in favor of Evan Reed.

It's difficult to predict which teams will be selling two months from now, but a week ago I took a shot at projecting some relief trade candidates.

 

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