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Analyzing The Free Agent Starters

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I've compiled a FanGraphs custom leaderboard of the 42 current starting pitchers who will be eligible for free agency after the season, leaving out a few with club options such as James Shields and Jon Lester.  Crunching a few basic numbers:

  • You won't find a better innings-eating free agent starter this year than Bronson Arroyo.  He leads with 100 2/3 innings after 15 starts, even though others have made 16 starts.  Arroyo still looks strong if we look at the past calendar year, though Hiroki Kuroda comes out on top with 225 1/3 innings.
  • Jason Hammel, Josh Johnson, and Matt Garza are the hardest throwers of the group, all averaging 92.7 miles per hour on their fastballs.  A.J. Burnett isn't far behind at 92.3, and he leads in strikeout rate and percentage.
  • With a 1.1 BB/9, Bartolo Colon gets the nod for best control.  Ervin Santana and Dan Haren have also been stingy with the free pass.
  • If you don't mind small samples, Chien-Ming Wang and Jake Westbrook are the most extreme groundballers.  If you do mind, then it's Tim Hudson.  Meanwhile, Phil Hughes gets the fewest groundballs, though others such as Freddy Garcia and Haren have had more extreme issues with home runs.  Westbrook hasn't allowed any home runs in his 51 innings, while Jorge De La Rosa has allowed only five in 93 innings.
  • Jason Marquis is getting by with an unsustainably low batting average on balls in play (.237), with Garza and Santana also below .250.
  • Among those with ten starts, Santana is the ERA leader at 2.64, followed by Kuroda and Colon.  SIERA likes Santana as well (3.49), but likes Burnett even more (3.23) and gives a nod to Roberto Hernandez (3.51).  Colon leads the past calendar year with a 2.68 ERA, with Kuroda checking in at 3.00 and Paul Maholm at 3.10.  Colon is also rocking a 1.41 ERA over his last 51 innings, and Joe Saunders is coming on strong in his last five outings.

Brewers’ GM Melvin Discusses Gallardo

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Brewers GM Doug Melvin continues to be frank about how the trade deadline may shape up for his underachieving team.  Talking to Anthony Witrado of Sporting News, Melvin said on Monday, "For us to win games moving forward, Yovani [Gallardo] should be a part of that, but some teams get in pennant races and need that one guy to get them over the hump.  It’s not a slam dunk that I’m going to trade Yovani or [Kyle] Lohse, but you never know. There’s a lot we have to consider about our club right now." 

Gallardo is "already a guy teams are charting," an NL Major League scout told Witrado.  The 27-year-old righty may emerge as the best starting pitcher available this summer.  Cliff Lee may not be available (and some teams would be priced out anyway), while Jake Peavy is on the DL with a rib fracture and Matt Garza comes with the uncertainty of a ten-month layoff.  Plus, as Melvin explained, "That Yovani is not a free agent like guys like [Zack] Greinke or Anibal Sanchez last year, he has more value than just two months of a rental, so the package from another team has to be something that will wow me."

Gallardo will have about $2.6MM remaining in 2013 salary at the July trade deadline, and then is owed $11.25MM in 2014 and has a $13MM club option with a $600K buyout for 2015.  He can block trades to ten teams, including the Orioles.  Having strung together 21 scoreless innings over his last three outings, Gallardo chopped his ERA from 5.25 to 4.09 in the course of about two weeks.  Overall he hasn't missed bats this year like he used to, but he still looks like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher moving forward.  The Orioles, Padres, and Giants are among the contenders known to be seeking starting pitching, but almost any team could make room for Gallardo.

Melvin spoke in praise of relievers John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez, who appear to be trade candidates.  The Brewers make for an interesting seller, as Lohse is another useful starter and they could offer up one of the market's better bats in Aramis Ramirez.

Trade Candidate Leaderboards

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FanGraphs is loaded with fantastic MLB statistics and related tools, and one of my favorites is the ability to create custom leaderboards.  With trade season around the corner, I created three leaderboards to allow you to sort the stats for all the MLB players I currently consider viable trade candidates.  You can see which available first baseman has the best walk rate, which available starting pitcher gets the most groundballs, which available reliever has the biggest strikeout rate – the possibilities are endless.  Please note that the player selections are subjective, and some are much more available or movable than others, and use the leaderboards as a framework or starting point.  They consist of reasonably-available veterans from the Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, and Twins, with a few players on contending teams sprinkled in.

Position Player Trade Candidate Leaderboard

Starting Pitcher Trade Candidate Leaderboard

Reliever Trade Candidate Leaderboard 

Mets To Promote Carlos Torres, Won’t Opt Out

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SATURDAY, 4:00pm: The Mets will promote Carlos Torres rather than allow him to opt out and go elsewhere, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (on Twitter).  The move was first reported by Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (Twitter link).  

THURSDAY, 12:43pm: Torres worked out a deal with the Mets where the right-hander will continue to start in Triple-A but can also contact other MLB clubs, MLBTR has learned.  If he finds a 25-man roster spot somewhere, then the Mets have 48 hours to put him on their own active roster or he can declare free agency and sign with that other club.  A couple of NL West teams already have some interest in the 30-year-old.

MONDAY, 10:58pm: The Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Week could soon become a free agent.  30-year-old righty Carlos Torres, currently working out of the rotation of the Mets' Triple-A affiliate, has the ability to opt out of his contract Wednesday, MLBTR has learned.  Over his last four starts, Torres has allowed three earned runs in 32 innings.  Overall he has a 3.89 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 0.88 HR/9 in a dozen starts this year.

Torres signed a minor league deal with the Mets in November, after tallying 53 innings out of Colorado's bullpen in 2012.  A 15th round pick of the White Sox in 2004, Torres tossed 42 frames with the big club in 2009-10 before spending 2011 in Japan.  As Matt Musico of MetsMinors.net wrote today, Torres has an unclear path to the bigs with the Mets, with top prospect Zack Wheeler soon to bump Jeremy Hefner or Dillon Gee to the bullpen.    

Stark On Miguel Cabrera, Kershaw, Nolasco, Stanton

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Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings & Grumblings column for ESPN came out yesterday; here are some highlights.

  • There have been enough informal conversations between Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers on a contract extension that both sides expect a deal to get done, a friend of the player tells Stark.  The tricky part is that a new deal would begin with the 2016 season, at which point Cabrera will be 33.  It seems likely that Cabrera would need an average annual value in the $30MM range, but Stark's sources picture anywhere from three to five additional years.
  • Some of Stark's sources don't consider Yankees second baseman and #1 2014 free agent Robinson Cano the type of player to build a team around.  One exec, though, told Stark, "I can't imagine him leaving."
  • Stark hears Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw seeks a ten-year deal, which would be the first for a pitcher since Wayne Garland signed a ten-year, $2.3MM deal in 1977 (those were different times).  One exec can't possibly see Kershaw leaving L.A., and could picture $200-210MM over seven years.  Even that would be well beyond C.C. Sabathia's record seven-year, $161MM deal, which was signed on the open market with the Yankees after the '08 season and included an opt-out clause.  I feel that Kershaw's agents at Excel Sports Management have to score an opt-out in any new deal, especially with the Dodgers giving them to Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • One exec suggests the Angels offer Mike Trout the Buster Posey deal, which amounted to eight years and $159MM in new money.  Stark says "folks around the game" do not see Trout signing, however.
  • The Orioles and Yankees are "leading the parade of teams that already have interest" in Miami's Ricky Nolasco.  The 30-year-old is easily the highest-paid Marlin, and should have about $7.7MM remaining on his contract at the trade deadline.  Nolasco has a 3.61 ERA in 82 1/3 innings, and sports his best strikeout rate since 2010.
  • Would anyone sign Alex Rodriguez, if the Yankees end up releasing him?  "No chance," says one executive.
  • The Marlins have shown no interest in dealing right fielder Giancarlo Stanton midseason, say clubs that have inquired, though Stark thinks Marcell Ozuna's emergence could push them toward trading Stanton this winter.  Stanton should return from a hamstring injury next week.  

Reds Release Mike MacDougal

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Today's minor moves…

  • The Reds released reliever Mike MacDougal from their Triple-A club, according to the International League transactions page.  MacDougal, who signed a minor league deal in April, posted a 5.49 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, and 0.92 HR/9 in 19 2/3 innings this year.  The 36-year-old made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers in April last year.  MacDougal has 71 career saves, mostly for the Royals and Nationals, and is well ahead of Rocky Biddle for the highest total among native Nevadans.  MacDougal was drafted by the Royals in the first round in 1999, a pick received from the Red Sox as part of the compensation for the loss of Jose Offerman.
  • Seven players currently reside in DFA limbo: Evan Crawford and Henry Blanco of the Blue Jays, Nate Adcock of the Royals, Zach Duke and Henry Rodriguez of the Nationals, Vinnie Catricala of the Mariners, and Jon Garland of the Rockies.

Pirates To Promote Gerrit Cole

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The number one overall draft pick of 2011 is set to make his Major League debut next week.  Gerrit Cole will start for the Pirates Tuesday night as they host Tim Lincecum and the Giants, announced the team.  Cole had been the rumored favorite to fill in for the injured Wandy Rodriguez in that slot.  With nearly 40% of the season in the books, the Pirates are riding high at a 36-25 record, tied for second in the NL Central.  They're bidding to reach .500 for the first time since 1992, but more importantly, the Bucs are fighting for a playoff spot.

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Cole, 22, was drafted 28th overall out of high school by the Yankees in 2008.  He chose not to sign or even negotiate, and his stock had risen when the Pirates drafted him first overall out of UCLA in '11 and gave him an $8MM bonus.  Five other 2011 first-rounders have appeared in the Majors: Jose Fernandez of the Marlins, Dylan Bundy of the Orioles, Trevor Bauer of the Indians, Anthony Rendon of the Nationals, and Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox.  Fernandez, drafted 14th overall with little fanfare, has been the best so far with 67 strikeouts and a 3.17 ERA in 65 1/3 innings this year.

Cole made 12 starts at Triple-A this year, posting a 2.91 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 0.53 HR/9 in 68 innings.  He's allowed two runs in his last 20 1/3 innings.  Cole's overall walk rate is fairly high, mainly due to a three-start stretch in April during which he surrendered 13 free passes in 17 2/3 frames.  He also hasn't missed as many bats as you'd expect.  Prior to the season, Cole was ranked eighth (ESPN's Keith Law), seventh (Baseball America), and eighth (MLB.com) on various top 100 prospect lists.  He sits at 96-98 miles per hour with a well-regarded slider and a decent changeup. 

If he stays up from June 11th forward, Cole stands to accumulate 111 days of Major League service time this year.  We haven't yet seen a Super Two cutoff that low, though it has been suggested that 2.119 will do the trick after this season.  That number is lower than usual because more Super Two players were added in the most recent collective bargaining agreement, as it's now the top 22% of the two-to-three service class.  Bottom line: it's possible, but not likely, that Cole will be eligible for arbitration after the 2015 season if he stays up from this point forward.  Regardless, the Pirates will control this young gun through 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockies Designate Jon Garland For Assignment

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The Rockies designated righty Jon Garland for assignment to make room for lefty Jeff Francis, announced the team on Twitter.  Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post was first to report the impending move.  Francis, who had been on the DL for a groin strain, will start tonight against the Padres.  Francis could be replaced soon as well, with Tyler Chatwood on the mend and Roy Oswalt tuning up in Double-A, reported Renck's colleague Patrick Saunders yesterday.

Garland, 33, has a 5.82 ERA, 4.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, and 49.1% groundball rate in 68 innings across 12 starts this year.  His first three starts went well, but he posted a 6.80 ERA over the next nine.  Garland had shoulder surgery in July 2011, and didn't pitch again in the Majors until his Rockies debut on April 6th this year.  He inked a minor league deal with the Mariners in February, but exercised an out clause in March when they chose not to commit a roster spot out of Spring Training.  He then signed a Major League contract with the Rockies with a $500K base salary and an additional $2.6MM in incentives for innings pitched and games started.

Garland was drafted 10th overall by the Cubs in 1997, one spot after soon-to-be former teammate Michael Cuddyer.  The White Sox pilfered him from the Cubs for reliever Matt Karchner in a cross-town swap the following year.  From 2002-07, Garland averaged 207 regular season innings per year, making the All-Star team and picking up a World Series ring in '05.  A California native, he later had stops with the Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres.

Astros Claim Wade LeBlanc

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The Astros claimed lefty Wade LeBlanc off waivers from the Marlins, tweets MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  He'll join the Astros in Kansas City tomorrow, at which point a corresponding active roster move will be made.  The Astros already have an open spot on their 40-man roster.  LeBlanc had been designated for assignment by the Marlins on Monday to open a roster spot for Edgar Olmos. 

LeBlanc, 28, posted a 5.18 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, and 39.3% groundball rate in 48 2/3 innings this year, including seven starts.  The southpaw was drafted by the Padres in the second round in 2006 out of the University of Alabama.  That round also produced notable big leaguers Trevor Cahill, Justin Masterson, Jon Jay, Brett Anderson, Chris Tillman, and Jeff Locke.  The Padres traded LeBlanc to the Marlins in November 2011 for catcher John Baker.

Optimism toward LeBlanc may have reached its peak before the '08 season, when Baseball America ranked him fourth among Padres prospects (right after Mat Latos).  At that point, BA marked LeBlanc as a "future No. 3 starter" with an excellent changeup but an unimpressive fastball.  This year, among those with 40 innings pitched, LeBlanc's average fastball velocity of 86.0 miles per hour is the fifth-lowest in all of baseball.

Jeff Karstens Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Pirates righty Jeff Karstens had shoulder surgery on Friday, which involved debridement of his rotator cuff and labrum, tweets Tom Singer of MLB.com.  The recovery period is 10-12 weeks, at which point Karstens could begin a throwing program.  The Pirates had transferred Karstens to the 60-day DL on May 27th.

Karstens, 30, will be eligible for free agency after the season.  Last year for the Bucs, he posted a 3.97 ERA in 90 2/3 innings, making 15 starts and four relief appearances.  He was non-tendered after the injury-plagued season, but re-signed for $2.5MM in January (down $600K from his 2012 salary).  Karstens recently switched agents, leaving Moye Sports Associates for All Bases Covered Sports Management.  With his 2013 season in question, a one-year deal seems likely for 2014, perhaps of the minor league variety.

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