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Extension Candidate: Hunter Pence

By Tim Dierkes | January 4, 2012 at 12:18pm CDT

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has authored eight extensions since taking charge in November of 2008, so it's only natural to assume he'll attempt to lock up summer acquisition Hunter Pence.  Let's discuss Pence's situation.

Pence

Pence, 28, had the best year of his career in 2011 with a .314/.370/.502 line in 668 plate appearances.  He's averaged 156 games over the last four seasons, with right field defense generally regarded as a positive.  Pence, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, has four years and 156 days of Major League service time.  That means he's already been arbitration eligible twice, with two more times to go.  Pence's agency won a hearing last February, scoring a $3.4MM raise to a $6.9MM salary.  The Astros had submitted a $5.15MM figure.  In unparalleled work done exclusively for MLBTR, Matt Swartz projected an even bigger raise this time, taking Pence to approximately $11.1MM for 2012.

In his prime and two seasons away from free agency, Pence may not necessarily be motivated to sign long-term at a big discount.  $23MM could work for his two arbitration years.  It'd be difficult to make a case that Pence deserves Ryan Braun/Matt Kemp money to buy out free agent years, which would be $19-21MM a season.  The $17-18MM range we saw with Jayson Werth and Matt Holliday could work, though those seven-year deals were reached by Scott Boras on the open market.  Pence might be able to get a six-year free agent deal if he remains consistent in 2012-13.  If the Phillies are willing to buy out six free agent years now at $16MM apiece, the total eight-year commitment could approach $120MM.  I think the floor for a Pence contract has to be five free agent seasons at $15MM each, bringing a seven-year deal to almost $100MM.

Pence turns 29 in April.  He one shot at a huge long-term deal in his career, and if he signs now, $100MM is a reasonable target.  The Phillies probably consider Cole Hamels a more pressing concern, but another big year from Pence will either drive the price higher or close the door on a long-term extension altogether.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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2012 Extension Candidates Philadelphia Phillies Hunter Pence

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Tigers Not Looking To Trade Jacob Turner

By Tim Dierkes | January 4, 2012 at 11:50am CDT

The Tigers are not looking to trade top pitching prospect Jacob Turner, GM Dave Dombrowski told Lynn Henning of the Detroit News.  Dombrowski said he did not offer Turner for Matt Garza.  The GM admitted to actively pursuing Gio Gonzalez, but added, "I don't think there is another call we've made in pursuing another starting pitcher."  There are no ongoing trade talks for starting pitching, Dombrowski told MLB.com's Jason Beck.  Instead, the Tigers are open to adding a swingman type of pitcher.

Four days ago, Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote that the Tigers "have quietly pursued starting pitchers throughout the offseason" and were involved on Garza.  The following day, ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the Tigers "have made it known to other teams that they are willing to trade Jacob Turner in a deal for the right pitcher."  Dombrowski told Henning, "There's been a lot of things written in recent weeks that have been totally incorrect," speculating that rumors came "probably from a strategic point of bargaining."

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Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers Jacob Turner Matt Garza

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Oswalt And The Cardinals

By Tim Dierkes | January 4, 2012 at 11:23am CDT

Free agent righty Roy Oswalt is being eyed by the Cardinals, reported Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe yesterday, and he'd love to pitch in St. Louis.  However, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweeted today that a team source downplayed the Cardinals' interest in Oswalt as a starter.  Strauss' implication is that the Cardinals might have interest in Oswalt for a relief role, perhaps with big incentives if he is to jump into the rotation.  The Cardinals currently have five starters under contract for 2012.

Oswalt has done very little relief work since his 2001 rookie season, and it's not known whether he's open to the idea of joining a bullpen.  The 34-year-old was limited to 145 innings in 2011 due to back pain.

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St. Louis Cardinals Roy Oswalt

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Teams Seeking Starting Pitching

By Tim Dierkes | January 4, 2012 at 9:56am CDT

A slew of unsigned starting pitchers remain on the free agent market, as well as several trade candidates. Which teams are or might be in the hunt?

  • Orioles: With pitchers like Paul Maholm and Joe Saunders on the radar, the O's don't seem to be seeking high-end upgrades unless they are to trade Adam Jones.
  • Red Sox: Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves could fill out Boston's rotation, though added depth beyond Carlos Silva might be nice.
  • Yankees: The Yankees have a functional rotation now, but they could add Edwin Jackson's innings if the price is right.
  • Blue Jays: The Blue Jays seem focused on adding a front-end starter if any.
  • Tigers: GM Dave Dombrowski told Lynn Henning of the Detroit News that he was actively involved in talks for Gio Gonzalez.  He said he did not offer Jacob Turner for Matt Garza, however, and seems to be in the market just for a swingman type.
  • Royals: They've added Jonathan Sanchez and re-signed Bruce Chen, but also had interest in young, controllable starters Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez.
  • Athletics: The A's have plenty of young rotation depth, but I wouldn't be surprised if they add a cheap veteran to the mix.
  • Mariners: The Mariners have a strong front three and immensely talented starters on the way, and will probably be done if they complete a deal with Hisashi Iwakuma.
  • Marlins: The Marlins appear to be considering adding a front-end starter or else standing pat, as they've been linked to Gonzalez and Garza.
  • Mets: It's easy to picture the Mets adding a veteran on a one-year deal.
  • Cubs: The Cubs have enough arms to cobble together a rotation, but a free agent is possible, especially if they trade Garza without receiving an MLB-ready starter in return.
  • Pirates: The Bucs are known to be prioritizing one more starter.
  • Diamondbacks: They have internal options, but could bring in a veteran to compete for the fifth starter job.
  • Rockies: The Rockies are looking to supplement their rotation with Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Francis, or Kevin Millwood, reportedly, and others are likely on the radar.
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Uncategorized

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Torre Resigns From MLB Job; Will Pursue Purchase Of Dodgers

By Tim Dierkes | January 4, 2012 at 9:05am CDT

Joe Torre has resigned from his job with MLB to explore opportunities with a group that will pursue ownership of the Dodgers, according to a press release.  Torre's group is headed by real estate magnate Rick Caruso, according to a statement.  Richard Sandomir and  Michael S. Schmidt of the New York Times first reported Caruso's interest in Torre in November.  Torre served as the Dodgers' manager from 2008-10 and was appointed the executive vice president of baseball operations for MLB in February last year.  Joe Garagiola Jr., Kim Ng, and Peter Woodfork will assume Torre's responsibilities as MLB searches for a replacement.

According to Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times, the deadline to submit opening bids for the Dodgers was recently extended to January 23rd.  Owner Frank McCourt and MLB reached an agreement last year for McCourt to identify a winning bidder by April 1st and complete a sale of the Dodgers by April 30th.  The list of prospective bidders includes Steven Cohen, Magic Johnson, Mark Cuban, Dennis Gilbert, Tom Golisano, and Steve Garvey and Orel Hershiser, according to Shaikin and Bill Plaschke on December 2nd.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

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Athletics Still Interested In Ludwick, Ross, Jackson

By Tim Dierkes | January 4, 2012 at 7:52am CDT

The Athletics recently committed $14MM to retain center fielder Coco Crisp, but they'll continue to talk to free agent outfielders such as Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, and Conor Jackson, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Oakland's corner outfield depth chart currently features Josh Reddick, Collin Cowgill, and Michael Taylor after losing Josh Willingham and David DeJesus to free agency and trading Jai Miller and Ryan Sweeney.

Ludwick, 33, shouldn't cost much after a .237/.310/.363 performance in 2011.  Jackson had a similar line.  Ross was somewhat more useful at .240/.325/.405.  His asking price appears to have come down to the two-year, $10MM range.  Other unsigned outfielders include Rick Ankiel, Johnny Damon, J.D. Drew, Kosuke Fukudome, Scott Hairston, Brad Hawpe, Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez, Luke Scott, and Ryan Spilborghs.

ESPN's Buster Olney writes today that some executives believe $40MM is the unofficial budget floor MLB and the union would like to see from teams.  As such, the Crisp signing may allow the A's to avoid a slap on the wrist.  Including projected salaries for Crisp, Brandon McCarthy, and Joey Devine, the A's appear to have about $33MM in commitments to 11 players.

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Athletics Cody Ross Conor Jackson Ryan Ludwick

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Orioles Acquire Jai Miller

By Tim Dierkes | January 4, 2012 at 7:38am CDT

WEDNESDAY, 7:38am: The A's received $45K for Miller, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

TUESDAY, 1:06pm: The Orioles acquired outfielder Jai Miller from the Athletics for cash considerations, according to a press release.  Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette said in a statement, "Jai Miller has the power, speed, base stealing skills and good athletic ability to be an asset in our outfield as he competes for a spot on our ballclub this spring."  With the Orioles' trade of Brandon Snyder to the Rangers, their 40-man roster remains full.

Miller, 26, hit .276/.368/.588 with 32 home runs in 475 Triple-A plate appearances this year, his fourth stint at the level.  He spent most of his time in center and right field.

Miller was originally drafted by the Marlins in the fourth round in 2003.  He was designated for assignment in April of 2010, claimed a few days later by the A's, designated again that same month, claimed by the Royals a few days later, and outrighted in November of 2010, at which point he signed back with the A's as a free agent.  The A's then designated Miller for assignment in late December of 2011 after trading Gio Gonzalez.

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Baltimore Orioles Texas Rangers Transactions Jai Miller

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Boras Seeks Five Years For Edwin Jackson

By Tim Dierkes | January 3, 2012 at 8:16pm CDT

8:16pm: At the beginning of the offseason, the asking price for Jackson was in the Lackey/Burnett range ($82.5MM), tweets ESPN.com’s Buster Olney.  The Yankees haven’t had talks with Boras about Jackson, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network. No talks are expected unless his asking price drops.

TUESDAY, 2:53pm: Jackson seeks $15-17MM per year, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Boras' promotional book on Jackson compares him to C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, John Lackey, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe.  All of those pitchers received at least $14.5MM per year, averaging $15.6MM.  Of course, Wilson and Buehrle just signed and the other three contracts were regrettable.  The Yankees will continue dialogue with Jackson, writes Heyman.  The process is starting to remind Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues of the Yankees' signing of Rafael Soriano last year.

MONDAY, 11:21am: Edwin Jackson's asking price is approximately $60MM over five years, writes ESPNNewYork's Wallace Matthews.  The Yankees like the free agent righty, "but not at that price," writes Matthews.  Matthews' colleague Buster Olney tweeted the same, saying that unless the Yankees' budget grows, there's no room for Jackson.

Ultimately I expect Jackson to settle for something closer to four years and $44MM, which wouldn't be an awful price for a 28-year-old innings eater with a touch of upside.

Additionally, Matthews writes that the Cubs' asking price for Matt Garza is "out of the question" for the Yankees.  He says the Cubs want at least two and possibly all three of Yankees top prospects Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances.  The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Marlins have also been connected to Garza in recent days.

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Chicago Cubs New York Yankees Dellin Betances Edwin Jackson Jesus Montero Manny Banuelos Matt Garza

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Orioles Rumors: Adam Jones, Tommy Hanson, Fielder

By Tim Dierkes | January 3, 2012 at 2:27pm CDT

The Orioles acquired Jai Miller today and also sent Brandon Snyder to Texas.  The latest on the team…

  • Executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com he wants to improve the Orioles' "on-base capability from top to bottom."  Duquette isn't sure he currently has a .380 OBP guy, and isn't sure if his second baseman is currently on the roster.  The free agents with the best 2011 OBPs include Casey Kotchman, Chris Snyder, Carlos Pena, and Pat Burrell.
  • The Orioles haven't made contract with Luke Scott since non-tendering him on December 12th, reports Kubatko.    
  • The Orioles are fairly confident they will add another outfielder, though that wouldn't necessarily portend an Adam Jones trade, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.  The Orioles were not overly intrigued by the Braves' offer of Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a minor league pitcher.  Connolly doesn't see Jurrjens as a centerpiece for a Jones trade.  Instead, the Orioles are intrigued by Tommy Hanson.
  • Connolly notes that an extension remains possible for Jones, who is under team control for two more years.  January is always a big month for extensions.
  • An Orioles source told Connolly they would not offer Prince Fielder the seven-year, $140MM deal Mark Teixeira rejected three years ago.  For the Orioles to sign Fielder, Connolly feels that his market would have to completely collapse, and he finds that highly unlikely.  Connolly reiterates that agent Scott Boras and Fielder "did not meet with [Orioles owner] Peter Angelos despite being in the area – which I thought should demonstrate once and for all that the Orioles really aren’t anywhere near the frontburner of this issue and Fielder's side isn't forcing it." 
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Adam Jones Jair Jurrjens Luke Scott Prince Fielder Tommy Hanson

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Nationals Ownership Meets With Boras About Fielder

By Tim Dierkes | January 3, 2012 at 2:03pm CDT

Yesterday we learned from Scott Boras that "there's a lot of passengers on the PF Flyer," and Prince Fielder is best described as a combination of Henry Kissinger and Frank Howard (courtesy of Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post).  The latest on the PF Flyer…

  • The Nationals' ownership recently met with Boras in Washington, D.C. to discuss Fielder, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson.  As you might expect, the Lerners will make the final decision on Fielder.
  • Many in the industry believe Boras seeks an opt-out clause for Fielder, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Rosenthal's source notes that opt-outs clearly favor players, in that the team assumes the risk of keeping him if he's underperforming and losing him if not.  Still, I think there are scenarios where a player can opt out and the team can avoid the worst part of a long-term contract.  If Fielder rakes for three years and a team pays him $75MM, quitting while they're ahead at that point can work, even if Fielder has a few more good years in him.
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Uncategorized Prince Fielder

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